No. _______ In the Supreme Court of the United States Ë WILLIAM E. SHEA, v. Petitioner, JOHN F. KERRY, Secretary of State, in his official capacity, Respondent. Ë On Petition for Writ of Certiorari to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Ë PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI Ë MERIEM L. HUBBARD RALPH W. KASARDA JOSHUA P. THOMPSON* WENCONG FA *Counsel of Record Pacific Legal Foundation 930 G Street Sacramento, California 95814 Telephone: (916) 419-7111 Facsimile: (916) 419-7747 E-mail: jthompson@pacificlegal.org Counsel for Petitioner i QUESTIONS PRESENTED Under United Steelworkers of Am., AFL-CIO-CLC v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193 (1979), an employer may only use racial preferences to “remedy a manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category.” In this case, the State Department adopted a race-based Affirmative Action Plan that allowed only racial minorities to bypass the entry-levels in the Foreign Service and apply directly for mid-level grades, even though there is no evidence of a racial imbalance at that level. The only evidence the Department assembled showed a racial imbalance in the Senior Foreign Service, a distinct job category. Although qualified for a mid-level grade, William Shea, a white male, was hired as an entry-level Foreign Service officer because only minorities were eligible for mid-level grades through the race-based plan. He sued under Section 717 of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, arguing that the Affirmative Action plan could not satisfy Weber. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals held that the evidence of a racial imbalance in the Senior Foreign Service justified race-based action targeted at the mid-levels of the Foreign Service. The questions presented are: 1. Does Section 717’s command that all covered federal employees shall be “free from any discrimination based on . . . race” forbid the federal government from adopting race-based affirmative action plans? 2. If not, may an employer use a race-based affirmative action plan for a job category that is not racially imbalanced based on evidence of an imbalance in an entirely different job category? ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page QUESTIONS PRESENTED . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i TABLE OF AUTHORITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI . . . . . . . . 1 OPINIONS BELOW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 JURISDICTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 STATUTORY PROVISION AT ISSUE . . . . . . . . . . 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 STATEMENT OF THE CASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 A. The Department of State’s Race-Based Affirmative Action Plan . . . . . 6 B. Proceedings Below . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 REASONS FOR GRANTING THE WRIT . . . . . . . 10 I. THIS COURT SHOULD DECIDE WHETHER TITLE VII PERMITS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DISCRIMINATE ON THE BASIS OF RACE PURSUANT TO AN AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PLAN . . . . . . . 11 A. The Decision Below Reads Section 717 Contrary To Its Explicit Text . . . . . . . . . 12 B. The Decision Below Creates an Unneccessary Conflict Between Section 717 and the Constitution . . . . . . 17 C. The Decision Below Conflicts With This Court’s Decision in Ricci v. DeStefano . . . . . . . . . 22 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS—Continued Page II. CERTIORARI SHOULD BE GRANTED BECAUSE THE DECISION BELOW RADICALLY INCREASES THE NUMBER OF RACE-BASED AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PLANS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EMPLOYERS CAN ADOPT . . . . . 25 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 APPENDIX Opinion of the Court of Appeals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 Judgment of the Court of Appeals . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 Order Withholding Issuance of Mandate . . . . . . . C-1 District Court Memorandum Opinion . . . . . . . . . D-1 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1 iv TABLE OF AUTHORITIES Page Cases Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Pena, 515 U.S. 200 (1995) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4, 18 Ali v. Fed. Bureau of Prisons, 552 U.S. 214 (2008) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Brown v. Gen. Servs. Admin., 425 U.S. 820 (1976) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson Co., 488 U.S. 469 (1989) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14, 18, 27 Clark v. Martinez, 543 U.S. 371 (2005) . . . . . . 21-22 Clegg v. Arkansas Dep’t of Correction, 496 F.3d 922 (8th Cir. 2007) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Doe v. Kamehameha Schools/ Bernice Pauahi Bishop Estate, 470 F.3d 827 (9th Cir. 2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26, 28 Duncan v. Walker, 533 U.S. 167 (2001) . . . . . . . . . 14 Fisher v. Univ. of Tex. at Austin, 133 S. Ct. 2411 (2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18, 20 Freeman v. Pitts, 503 U.S. 467 (1992) . . . . . . . . . . 22 Gratz v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 244 (2003) . . . . . . . . . . 3 Grutter v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 306 (2003) . . . . . . . . 27 Harding v. Gray, 9 F.3d 150 (D.C. Cir. 1993) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Harrison v. PPG Industries, Inc., 446 U.S. 578 (1980) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 v TABLE OF AUTHORITIES—Continued Page Higgins v. City of Vallejo, 823 F.2d 351 (9th Cir. 1987) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Jackson v. Birmingham Bd. of Educ., 544 U.S. 167 (2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Johnson v. Transp. Agency, Santa Clara Cnty., Cal., 480 U.S. 616 (1987) . . . . . . . . . passim McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792 (1973) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18-19 Newport News Shipbuilding & Dry Dock Co. v. EEOC, 462 U.S. 669 (1983) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Olmstead v. L.C. ex rel. Zimring, 527 U.S. 581 (1999) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Parents Involved in Cmty. Schs. v. Seattle Sch. Dist. No. 1, 551 U.S. 701 (2007) . . . . . . . . . 27 Phelan v. City of Chicago, 347 F.3d 679 (7th Cir. 2003) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19-20 Pierce v. Commonwealth Life Ins. Co., 40 F.3d 796 (6th Cir. 1994) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265 (1978) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Ricci v. DeStefano, 557 U.S. 557 (2009) . . . . . . . . . . 4, 9-10, 20, 22-24 Shea v. Clinton, No. 08-5491, 2009 WL 1153448 (D.C. Cir. Apr. 2, 2009) . . . . . 9 Shea v. Kerry, 796 F.3d 42 (D.C. Cir. 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1, 10 vi TABLE OF AUTHORITIES—Continued Page Shea v. Kerry, 961 F. Supp. 2d 17 (D.D.C. 2013) . . . . . . . . . . . 1, 9 Shea v. Rice, 409 F.3d 448 (D.C. Cir. 2005) . . . . . . . 9 Stuart v. Roache, 951 F.2d 446 (1st Cir. 1991) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Taken v. Okla. Corp. Comm’n, 125 F.3d 1366 (10th Cir. 1997) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 United States v. Gonzales, 520 U.S. 1 (1997) . . . . . 14 United Steelworkers of Am., AFL-CIO-CLC v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193 (1979) . . . . . . . . . . . passim Wygant v. Jackson Bd. of Educ., 476 U.S. 267 (1986) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Federal Statutes 5 U.S.C. § 7201(c) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 22 U.S.C. § 3901, et seq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27-28 § 3945 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 28 U.S.C. § 1254(1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-2(a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 § 2000e-2(j) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 § 2000e-16(a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3, 6, 11, 13 Pub. L. 99-93, 99 Stat. 405, Title I, § 152(a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7 Pub. L. 100-204, 101 Stat. 1331, Title I, § 183(b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 vii TABLE OF AUTHORITIES—Continued Page Rule of Court Sup. Ct. R. 10(c) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4, 10 Miscellaneous McGinley, Ann C., The Emerging Cronyism Defense and Affirmative Action: A Critical Perspective on the Distinction Between Colorblind and Race-Conscious Decision Making Under Title VII, 39 Ariz. L. Rev. 1003 (1997) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Sullivan, Charles A., Circling Back to the Obvious: The Convergence of Traditional and Reverse Discrimination in Title VII Proof, 46 Wm. & Mary L. Rev. 1031 (2004) . . . . . . . . . 21 1 PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI Petitioner William E. Shea respectfully submits this petition for a writ of certiorari to review the judgment of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Ë OPINIONS BELOW The opinion of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is reported at 796 F.3d 42 and is reproduced in the Appendix (App.) at A1-48. The opinion of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia is reported at 961 F. Supp. 2d 17 and is reproduced at App. at D-1-81. Ë JURISDICTION The United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rendered its decision on August 7, 2015. App. B-1-2. This Court has jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1254(1). Ë STATUTORY PROVISION AT ISSUE Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 provides in relevant part: All personnel actions affecting employees or applicants for employment (except with regard to aliens employed outside the limits of the United States) in military departments as defined in section 102 of Title 5, in executive agencies 2 as defined in section 105 of Title 5 (including employees and applicants for employment who are paid from nonappropriated funds), in the United States Postal Service and the Postal Regulatory Commission, in those units of the Government of the District of Columbia having positions in the competitive service, and in those units of the judicial branch of the Federal Government having positions in the competitive service, in the Smithsonian Institution, and in the Government Publishing Office, the Government Accountability Office, and the Library of Congress shall be made free from any discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16(a). Ë INTRODUCTION On September 1, 1990, Petitioner William E. Shea (Shea), a white male, applied to become a Foreign Service officer with the United States Department of State (Department). App. A-3. The Department had no authority to hire Shea in a mid-level grade under the mandates of its race-based Mid-Level Affirmative Action Plan (Affirmative Action Plan). App. A-3-6. Instead, on May 31, 1992, the Department offered Shea an entry-level1 Foreign Service officer grade, 1 At the time he was hired, the Foreign Service career ladder had six levels ranging from FS-06 (entry-level) to FS-01 (upper-level). App. A-3. FS-06, FS-05, and FS-04 are entry-level grades. FS-03 (continued...) 3 which he accepted. App. A-3. Other members of Shea’s introductory class with similar qualifications who self-identified as racial minorities were hired directly into mid-level grades under the Affirmative Action Plan. App. D-6. Shea was ready and able to apply and would have applied for a mid-level grade, if it had been open to him on a race-neutral footing. App. A-11. Shea brought suit challenging the Department’s discriminatory personnel action under Section 717 of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16(a); see also Gratz v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 244, 262 (2003) (individual has Article III standing to challenge a race-based program which denied “the opportunity to compete . . . on an equal basis”). Unlike Title VII’s Section 703—which applies to private employers—Section 717 only applies to personnel actions taken by the federal government. Although the language of the prohibitions on race-based discrimination in the two statutes is different, the D.C. Circuit held that Section 717 claims of intentional discrimination by the federal government are analyzed under the Section 703 framework that this Court established for claims of intentional discrimination by private employers. App. A-21. Under Section 703, the standard of review depends on the race of the plaintiff and the “type” of discrimination alleged. Because Shea is a white male challenging intentional discrimination required by an affirmative action plan, the lower court held that he must prove that the Department’s discrimination was not undertaken to remedy a “manifest imbalance” in a 1 (...continued) and FS-02 are mid-level grades. FS-01 is the lone upper-level grade. Shea was hired into an FS-05 level. App. A-3. 4 “traditionally segregated job category.” App. A-25; see also United Steelworkers of Am., AFL-CIO-CLC v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193, 207 n.7 (1979) (white males challenging race-based affirmative action under Section 703 must prove that the employer’s discrimination was not targeted at remedying a manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category); Johnson v. Transp. Agency, Santa Clara Cnty., Cal., 480 U.S. 616, 631, 637-38 (1987) (same). Under that standard, the D.C. Circuit held that the Affirmative Action Plan did not violate Title VII, because it was designed to remedy a manifest racial imbalance in the Senior Foreign Service. App. A-28-32. The Court should grant the petition for certiorari because this case raises two important questions of federal law that have not been, but should be, settled by this Court. Sup. Ct. R. 10(c). First, this Court has never held that Section 717 allows the federal government to discriminate on the basis of race pursuant to an affirmative action plan. Unlike Section 703, Section 717 unambiguously forbids race-based personnel actions. Moreover, reading Section 717 to require different standards of review, based on the race of the individual discriminated against would cause that statute to conflict with the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause. See Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Pena, 515 U.S. 200, 227 (1995) (Due Process Clause prohibits the federal government from discriminating based on race). The D.C. Circuit’s decision also conflicts with this Court’s decision in Ricci v. DeStefano, 557 U.S. 557, 582-85 (2009), holding that all governmental race-based discrimination presumptively violates Title VII and can only survive if the government employer proves its actions were necessary. 5 Second, even if the Section 703 cases of Johnson and Weber apply to intentional discrimination claims brought by white plaintiffs under Section 717, the Court should grant certiorari to reverse the D.C. Circuit’s radical expansion of Johnson and Weber. Until the decision below, no court had ever held that an employer’s race-based affirmative action plan may be justified by a manifest imbalance in a job category separate from the one receiving the preference. Here, the D.C. Circuit agreed with Shea that there was no manifest imbalance in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service where the Department’s race-based plan was targeted. App. A-27-28. Nevertheless, the court upheld the Department’s discriminatory personnel decision because it found a manifest imbalance in the Senior Foreign Service. App. A-28-32. The D.C. Circuit’s decision would permit all employers subject to Title VII—public or private—to indefinitely continue race-based discrimination throughout all of the employer’s job categories so long as a single job category remained “out of balance.” This case illustrates the problem with the D.C. Circuit’s radical extension of Johnson and Weber. There exist a myriad of requirements to become a Senior Foreign Service officer, and the promotion path to the Senior Foreign Service officer is not just long, but highly uncertain and subjective. Most Foreign Service officers never reach the Senior Foreign Service, and it is sheer speculation whether beginning at a mid-level grade—without the benefit of years of professional development in entry-level grades—helps or hurts the quest for promotion into the Senior Foreign Service. And, of course, the Department has produced no evidence suggesting it forecast 15 or 20 years into the future to see whether minority groups 6 targeted by the Affirmative Action Plan would still be underrepresented in the Senior Foreign Service when those hires might be expected to be considered for promotion. If Section 717 means what it plainly says, the Department’s Affirmative Action Plan is illegal. It is a “personnel action” that “affects” Shea, an “employee” and former “applicant for employment,” and it “discriminated” against him “based on race.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16(a). Yet, the D.C. Circuit read Section 717 to allow the federal government to engage in this overt and intentional discrimination. Worse, the D.C. Circuit’s decision radically constricts Title VII’s protections for individuals subjected to intentional discrimination by their public or private employer. This Court should grant the petition and review the D.C. Circuit’s decision. Ë STATEMENT OF THE CASE A. The Department of State’s Race-Based Affirmative Action Plan The Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1986-1987 (1986-87 Foreign Relations Act) directed the Department of State to “increase significantly the number of members of minority groups and women in the Foreign Service.” Pub. L. 99-93, 99 Stat. 405, Title I, § 152(a). The 1986-87 Foreign Relations Act did not require the Department to adopt race-based means of increasing minority representation in the Foreign Service, id., nor are racial preferences required by any other statute. To the contrary, Congress directed the Department to engage 7 in “recruitment” efforts to increase the members of minority groups in the foreign service. See id. (citing 5 U.S.C. § 7201(c). Section 7201 explicitly disclaims discrimination on the basis of race. On January 1, 1987, the Department instituted the Affirmative Action Plan, under its more general Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Program. App. A-3-6. The Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Program authorized the Department to hire candidates directly into mid-level Foreign Service grades if it obtained a “certification of need,” a document demonstrating that the Department needed an individual at a mid-level grade with specific qualifications. App. D-5. The Affirmative Action Plan eliminated the certificate of need requirement for minority applicants. App. D-5. The Department produced no evidence in this case showing racial disparities in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service at the time the Affirmative Action Plan was adopted. App. A-5. Nor did the Department produce any evidence showing racial disparities in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service at any time throughout the life of the Affirmative Action Plan. A-29. Without referencing the Affirmative Action Plan, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1988-1989, demanded efforts to increase minority representation in the senior levels of the Foreign Service. Pub. L. 100-204, 101 Stat. 1331, Title I, § 183(b). However, the Department made no substantive revisions to the Affirmative Action Plan as a result of the 1988-89 Foreign Relations Act. In 1989, the Secretary of State commissioned a report on Foreign Service personnel. App. D-34. In June of 1989, the General Accounting Office (GAO) 8 issued a report titled, State Department: Minorities and Women Are Underrepresented in the Foreign Service. App. D-35. According to the GAO Report, the only minority males who were underrepresented in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service were males identifying as Asian/Pacific Islanders. App. A-5. Black males, Hispanic males, and Indian/Alaskan males were fully represented in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service. App. A-5. The GAO Report also explains that the Affirmative Action Plan was not designed to increase minority representation in the senior levels of the Foreign Service. App. A-6. A subsequent Multi-Year Report issued in 1990 maintained the status quo—all non-white individuals were still eligible for the preference—though it purported to establish “goals” to increase minority participation in positions where the Department had documented racial underrepresentation. App. D-40. However, as noted above, the data in the Multi-Year Report failed to show any imbalance—much less a manifest one—in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service. Indeed, Black males, Hispanic males, and Asian-American males were vastly over-represented in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service. App. D-56-57. Moreover the “goals” created by the Multi-Year Report were illusory. The goals did nothing to cabin Affirmative Action Plan-eligibility for non-white individuals from fully represented racial groups. App. D-24. Indeed, it is unclear what effect, if any, the goals had on the Affirmative Action Plan. The Department continued to give preferential treatment to all individuals from minority groups identified in the Affirmative Action Plan, and continued to disfavor white males. App. D-24. 9 B. Proceedings Below On July 11, 2001, Shea filed a grievance with the Department asserting that he was being discriminated against on the basis of his race in violation of Title VII. App. A-8. The Department failed to resolve the grievance within 90 days, after which Shea filed the grievance with the Foreign Service Grievance Board. App. A-8. On January 30, 2002, the Board dismissed Shea’s grievance for lack of jurisdiction. Having exhausted his administrative remedies, Shea filed suit in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia on March 26, 2002. App. A-8. The D.C. Circuit twice reversed district court decisions dismissing Shea’s suit on procedural grounds. See Shea v. Rice, 409 F.3d 448, 456 (D.C. Cir. 2005); Shea v. Clinton, No. 08-5491, 2009 WL 1153448, at *1 (D.C. Cir. Apr. 2, 2009). Back in the district court for the third time, the parties filed cross-motions for summary judgment. App. D-8. After full briefing, the lower court granted the Department’s motion for summary judgment and denied Shea’s motion. Shea v. Kerry, 961 F. Supp. 2d 17, 55 (D.D.C. 2013). District Court Judge Lamberth questioned the continuing validity of Weber and Johnson in light of this Court’s decision in Ricci, but felt compelled to apply the earlier cases absent a clear decision from this Court. Id. at 55 n.17. Shea timely appealed the district court’s decision dismissing his case. App. B-1. Shea argued that Ricci clarified that in Title VII cases where the government overtly and intentionally discriminates on the basis of race, the burden is on the employer—and not the individual discriminated against—to prove the lawfulness of its discrimination. In addition, Shea 10 argued that even under Weber and Johnson, the Department failed to prove that its Affirmative Action Plan was designed to remedy a “manifest imbalance” of minorities in a “traditionally segregated job category.” App. D-56. The court of appeals affirmed the district court’s ruling. App. B-1-2; Shea v. Kerry, 796 F.3d 42, 65 (D.C. Cir. 2015). It held that Ricci does not govern cases of intentional discrimination where the government employer’s discriminatory conduct is designed to “expand job opportunities for minorities and women.” Id. at 55. In addition, the court held that the Department is not required to prove a “manifest imbalance” in the job category offering the racially preferential treatment, i.e. mid-level grades. Instead, the court upheld the Mid-Level Affirmative Action Plan because it found a “manifest imbalance” in the Senior Foreign Service. Id. at 58-60. Judge Williams filed a concurring opinion expressing his belief that the terms “manifest imbalance,” “traditionally segregated job category,” and “unnecessarily trammels the rights” from Weber and Johnson are amorphous and uncertain. Id. at 65 (Williams, J., concurring). Ë REASONS FOR GRANTING THE WRIT Certiorari should be granted because the D.C. Circuit “has decided an important question of federal law that has not been, but should be, settled by this Court.” Sup. Ct. R. 10(c). 11 I THIS COURT SHOULD DECIDE WHETHER TITLE VII PERMITS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DISCRIMINATE ON THE BASIS OF RACE PURSUANT TO AN AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PLAN Section 717 of Title VII explicitly prohibits federal governmental discrimination: “All personnel actions affecting employees or applicants for employment . . . in executive agencies . . . shall be made free from any discrimination based on race.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16(a) (emphasis added). This statute covers the actions taken by the Department here. The Department made a personnel decision that affected William Shea—an applicant for employment—and that personnel decision was race-based and discriminatory. Put simply, had Shea identified himself as belonging to any of the Department’s preferred races, he would have been eligible to apply for a mid-level placement through the Affirmative Action Plan. As a white male, the opportunity was closed to him. The court below held that Section 717’s prohibition on racial discrimination by the federal government should be analyzed using the same framework as Section 703’s prohibition on discrimination by private and municipal employers.2 2 The text of Section 703’s prohibition on racial discrimination reads in pertinent part that it shall be an unlawful employment practice for an employer “to fail or refuse to hire or to discharge any individual, or otherwise to discriminate against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or (continued...) 12 App. A-8-9. Therefore, because the Department’s race-based discrimination was undertaken in accordance with an affirmative action plan, the lower court analyzed the Department’s discriminatory personnel actions under the framework this Court laid forth in Johnson, 480 U.S. 616, and Weber, 443 U.S. 193. Under Johnson and Weber, a non-minority plaintiff bears the burden of proving that the employer’s race-based discrimination was illegal. A challenger to a race-based affirmative action plan must show that the discriminatory employment decision was not undertaken in response to a “manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category,” or that the decision “unnecessarily trammeled” the rights of non-minorities. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 631, 637-38. In this case, the lower court reasoned that Shea bore the burden of proving that the Department’s Affirmative Action Plan did not remedy a manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category, or, alternatively, that the plan unnecessarily trammeled the rights of non-minorities like him. App. A-22. By applying Johnson and Weber to claims arising under Section 717, the lower court radically extends those cases to permit previously illegal and unconstitutional race-based discrimination by the federal government. A. The Decision Below Reads Section 717 Contrary To Its Explicit Text Section 717 of Title VII provides an important protection against race-based discrimination by the 2 (...continued) privileges of employment, because of such individual’s race, color, religion, sex, or national origin.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-2(a). 13 federal government. Before Section 717 was added to Title VII, federal employees—and applicants for federal employment like William Shea—had difficulty securing judicial relief from federal government discrimination. See Brown v. Gen. Servs. Admin., 425 U.S. 820, 825-26 (1976). Congress added Section 717 to create “an exclusive, pre-emptive administrative and judicial scheme for the redress of federal employment discrimination.” Id. at 829. By reading Section 717 contrary to its explicit text, the D.C. Circuit’s decision returns federal law to a time when thousands of federal employees lacked adequate judicial relief for federal government discrimination. Only this Court can return Section 717 to its plain meaning, and provide adequate remedies against discrimination for individuals of all races. Section 717 prohibits “any discrimination” on the basis of race by the federal government when it undertakes a “personnel action.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16(a). The text is clear and unambiguous. In interpreting statutory text, this Court has repeatedly held that “discrimination” means “less favorable treatment.” See Newport News Shipbuilding & Dry Dock Co. v. EEOC, 462 U.S. 669, 682 n.22 (1983) (interpreting “discrimination” in Title VII); Jackson v. Birmingham Bd. of Educ., 544 U.S. 167, 174 (2005) (under Title IX “discrimination” means “being subjected to differential treatment”; see also Olmstead v. L.C. ex rel. Zimring, 527 U.S. 581, 614 (1999) (Kennedy, J., concurring in the judgment) (“[T]he normal definition of discrimination [means the] differential treatment of similarly situated groups.”). Moreover, this Court has long understood that race-based affirmative action may constitute discrimination against individuals not entitled to the 14 racially preferential treatment. See, e.g., Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265, 307 (1978) (Powell, J., op.) (“Preferring members of any one group for no reason other than race or ethnic origin is discrimination for its own sake.”); Wygant v. Jackson Bd. of Educ., 476 U.S. 267, 273-74 (1986) (plurality op.) (a race-based layoff preference for minority teachers discriminated against non-minority teachers); City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson Co., 488 U.S. 469, 478 (1989) (racial preference for minority contractors discriminated against non-minority contractors). While this Court has interpreted Section 703’s prohibition on discrimination to permit certain race-based discrimination by employers when the discrimination is intended to alleviate “manifest racial imbalance in traditionally segregated job categories,” Weber, 443 U.S. at 207 n.7, the text of Section 703 differs from Section 717 in important respects. First, unlike Section 703, Section 717 prohibits “any” discrimination based on race. To the extent that remedial race-based action is permissible under Section 703 because it only prohibits “discrimination,” Section 717’s prohibition against “any discrimination” goes further. See, e.g., Ali v. Fed. Bureau of Prisons, 552 U.S. 214, 218-21 (2008) (use of the word “any” in statutory text has an expansive meaning); United States v. Gonzales, 520 U.S. 1, 5 (1997) (Congress’s use of “any” leaves “no basis in the text for limiting” the modified phrase); Harrison v. PPG Industries, Inc., 446 U.S. 578 (1980) (use of “any” as a modifying phrase leaves no room for uncertainty); cf. Duncan v. Walker, 533 U.S. 167, 174 (2001) (noting the Court’s reluctance “to treat statutory terms as surplusage in any setting”) (quotation marks omitted). It prohibits the federal 15 government from discriminating at all. Second, whereas Section 703(a) lists the specific personnel decisions that must be free from racial discrimination, Section 717(a) explicitly prohibits “all personnel actions affecting employees or applicants for employment.” See Clegg v. Arkansas Dep’t of Correction, 496 F.3d 922, 928 (8th Cir. 2007) (Under Section 703, “[a]n employer’s denial of a training request, without something more, is not itself an adverse employment action.”). There can be little doubt that Congress intended Section 717’s prohibition on racial discrimination to be further reaching than the prohibition in Section 703. This Court touched on these distinctions in Weber, disagreeing over whether the text of Section 703 prohibited any racial discrimination or just non-remedial racial discrimination. Compare Weber, 443 U.S. at 207 (“Congress did not intend to limit traditional business freedom to such a degree as to prohibit all voluntary, race-conscious affirmative action.”), with id. at 216 (Blackmun, J., dissenting) (“I cannot join the Court’s judgment, however, because it is contrary to the explicit language of the statute.”). The majority read Section 703 to permit certain race-based discrimination for two reasons. First, the Court was persuaded that Congress never intended to prohibit private employers from enacting voluntary race-conscious affirmative action programs. See Weber, 443 U.S. at 207 (holding that Congress desired to “avoid undue federal regulation of private businesses.”). The Weber Court’s desire to avoid undue interference with private business has no purchase when it comes to Section 717, which only applies to the federal government. 16 Second, the Weber Court read Section 703(j)3 as an indication that Congress intended for private businesses to have the flexibility to enact affirmative action plans. Section 703(j), which clarifies that Section 703 shall not “be interpreted to require any employer . . . to grant preferential treatment to any individual or to any group because of the[ir] race,” has no analog in Section 717. 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-2(j). The Weber Court found that Congress would have written Section 703(j) differently had it intended for private businesses to be prohibited from enacting voluntary affirmative action programs. See Weber, 443 U.S. at 204-07. While the Court’s “natural inference” is debatable,4 no similar inference can be made with 3 Section 703(j) reads: “Nothing contained in this subchapter shall be interpreted to require any employer, employment agency, labor organization, or joint labor-management committee subject to this subchapter to grant preferential treatment to any individual or to any group because of the race, color, religion, sex, or national origin of such individual or group on account of an imbalance which may exist with respect to the total number or percentage of persons of any race, color, religion, sex, or national origin employed by any employer, referred or classified for employment by any employment agency or labor organization, admitted to membership or classified by any labor organization, or admitted to, or employed in, any apprenticeship or other training program, in comparison with the total number or percentage of persons of such race, color, religion, sex, or national origin in any community, State, section, or other area, or in the available work force in any community, State, section, or other area.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-2(j). 4 See Weber, 443 U.S. at 217 (Burger, C.J., dissenting) (“One need not even resort to the legislative history to recognize what is apparent from the face of Title VII—that it is specious to suggest that § 703(j) contains a negative pregnant that permits employers to do what §§ 703(a) and (d) unambiguously and unequivocally forbid employers from doing.”). 17 respect to Section 717, which contains no such provision or inference. The text of Section 717 unmistakably prohibits federal executive agencies—the Department of State here—from choosing to adopt race-based affirmative action plans. However, the D.C. Circuit’s decision below created a broad exception to this clear and unambiguous non-discrimination statute. This Court should grant the petition for certiorari in order to prevent this far-reaching opinion from infecting the federal government, and allowing it to violate federal employees’ rights to nondiscrimination guaranteed by Title VII. B. The Decision Below Creates an Unneccessary Conflict Between Section 717 and the Constitution By holding that Section 717 permits race-based intentional discrimination by the federal government, the D.C. Circuit’s decision renders Section 717 unconstitutional. And because the D.C. Circuit’s decision applies to all actions taken by the federal government across the United States, the decision below eliminates an important protection against federal government discrimination for individuals nationwide. This constitutional conflict can be easily avoided, however, by reading Section 717 according to its plain text. Review is needed to avoid this constitutional conflict and ensure that individuals applying for, or working for, the federal government enjoy Title VII’s full protections against racial discrimination. The Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment requires the federal government to treat all individuals 18 equally with respect to race. See Adarand, 515 U.S. at 227. The Due Process Clause is “congruent” with the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause; it demands “skepticism” of all race-based distinctions, and “‘is not dependent on the race of those burdened or benefitted by a particular classification.’” Id. at 224 (quoting Croson, 488 U.S. at 494). Accordingly, “any official action that treats a person differently on account of his race or ethnic origin is inherently suspect.” Fisher v. Univ. of Tex. at Austin, 133 S. Ct. 2411, 2419 (2013). By contrast, the standard under which courts evaluate claims under Section 703 depends upon a plaintiff’s race. Indeed, this Court has established two different tests for private employers who are alleged to violate Title VII. In the case of a minority plaintiff, Section 703(a) claims are analyzed under the burden-shifting rules of McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792, 802-04 (1973). Under McDonnell Douglas, a plaintiff’s prima facie case must demonstrate that: (1) he belongs to a member of a protected class; (2) he applied and was qualified for a job for which the employer was seeking applicants; (3) despite his qualifications, he was rejected; and (4) after his rejection, the position remained open, and the employer continued to seek applicants from persons with the complainant’s qualifications. Id. at 802. Once a prima facie case is established, the burden shifts to the employer to “articulate some legitimate, nondiscriminatory reason” for the applicant’s rejection. Id. If the employer is able to articulate such a legitimate, non-discriminatory reason, the burden shifts back to the applicant to prove 19 that the employer’s non-discriminatory reason “was in fact pretext.” Id. at 804. However, where the plaintiff is a non-minority discriminated against pursuant to a race-based affirmative action program, the standard is markedly different. The employer is no longer required to offer a non-discriminatory reason for its action. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626. The mere “existence of an affirmative action plan” satisfies the employer’s burden of production, and the burden shifts immediately to the applicant to prove the plan violates Title VII. Id. To prove that an affirmative action plan violates Title VII, an applicant must prove either the absence of a “manifest . . . imbalance” of minorities in “traditionally segregated job categories,” or that the plan “unnecessarily trammel[s]” the interests of non-minorities. Weber, 443 U.S. at 208-09. All circuits that have addressed the issue have held that non-minority plaintiffs must meet a higher burden of proof under Section 703 than their minority counterparts. See, e.g., Taken v. Okla. Corp. Comm’n, 125 F.3d 1366, 1369 (10th Cir. 1997). According to the D.C. Circuit, for example, an inference of discrimination arises in Title VII cases when the plaintiff is a member of a minority group. Harding v. Gray, 9 F.3d 150, 153 (D.C. Cir. 1993). But “[n]o such inference arises when . . . the plaintiff is a white man.” Id. The Seventh Circuit has similarly imposed additional requirements on white plaintiffs in lawsuits involving Title VII. Phelan v. City of Chicago, 347 F.3d 679, 684 (7th Cir. 2003). Unlike minority plaintiffs, white plaintiffs must “show background circumstances demonstrating that a particular employer has reason or inclination to discriminate invidiously against 20 whites or evidence that there is something ‘fishy’ about the facts at hand.” Id. (citations and quotations omitted). Unlike Section 703, however, Section 717 applies solely to personnel actions taken by the federal government. Because the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause prevents federal government action that classifies on the basis of race, a changing standard of review based on the race of the plaintiff—or the type of discrimination alleged to cause harm—would violate that Clause. And placing the burden of proof on a nonminority plaintiff to demonstrate that the federal government’s facially race-based program violates Title VII runs counter to this Court’s command that the government always bears the “ultimate burden” of demonstrating the need for racial discrimination. See Fisher, 133 S. Ct. at 2419-20; see also Ricci, 557 U.S. at 579-80 (employer bears the burden of showing why a race-based employment action was necessary). The due process conflict created by applying Johnson and Weber to claims arising under Section 717 is clearly presented in this case. Despite the absence of evidence demonstrating an imbalance in mid-levels of the Foreign Service when Shea was hired, he bore the burden of proving that the Department’s race-based Affirmative Action Plan was illegal. Indeed, the district court recognized this conflict: The Court wonders why it is harder to challenge an affirmative action plan under Title VII than under the Constitution. When challenging affirmative action under the Equal Protection Clause, strict scrutiny applies and the defendant has the ultimate burden of explaining why it was necessary to 21 treat people differently based on their race. But when the challenge is under Title VII, we make the plaintiff ultimately prove that race-based discrimination is illegal. App. D-77. The district court is not alone; other courts and commentators have recognized the conflict between the Weber-Johnson standard and equal protection. See, e.g., Pierce v. Commonwealth Life Ins. Co., 40 F.3d 796, 801 n.7 (6th Cir. 1994) (“We have serious misgivings about the soundness of a test which imposes a more onerous standard for plaintiffs who are white or male than for their non-white or female counterparts.”); Charles A. Sullivan, Circling Back to the Obvious: The Convergence of Traditional and Reverse Discrimination in Title VII Proof, 46 Wm. & Mary L. Rev. 1031, 1135 (2004) (“[I]t is unconstitutional to apply different proof requirements for claims by whites, as opposed to those by African Americans and other racial minorities.”). Shea should not have to bear the burden of proving the illegality of the Department’s race-based conduct. This Court need not overrule Weber and Johnson to reach such a result. Those two cases can be narrowed to situations where a private employer voluntarily decides to engage in an affirmative action plan. After all, that is precisely what the Weber Court intended. See 443 U.S. at 207 (explaining that Section 703 permits voluntary race-conscious action undertaken by private business). By limiting Johnson and Weber in this sensible manner, the constitutional problem created here is easily avoided. See Clark v. Martinez, 543 U.S. 371, 380 (2005) (explaining the constitutional avoidance canon). Because Section 717 only applies to the federal government, this Court 22 should grant certiorari and hold that Section 717 requires the federal government to prove the necessity of its race-based conduct before it imposes any racially discriminatory measures. C. The Decision Below Conflicts With This Court’s Decision in Ricci v. DeStefano Ricci v. DeStefano clarified that race-based employment decisions are generally “impermissible” by government under Title VII. 557 U.S. 557, 563 (2009). In the very limited circumstances where they are permitted,5 the justification for governmental race-based employment discrimination neither turns on the race of the individual discriminated against, nor the “benevolence” or good intentions of the government employer. Id. at 579-80. Equal protection principles—which presumptively prohibit race-based classifications by the government—must guide a government employer before it decides to engage in a race-based employment decision. Id. at 582-85. In Ricci, this Court was confronted with the tension inherent between Section 703’s disparate treatment provisions and its disparate impact provisions. In resolving the statutory tension, this Court held “that race-based action . . . is impermissible under Title VII unless the employer can demonstrate 5 Title VII permits an employer to use race if it has a strong basis in evidence of a disparate impact violation. Ricci, 557 U.S. at 585. Although never addressed by this Court, Title VII may also permit race-based affirmative action if necessary to remedy the effects of past intentional discrimination. See Freeman v. Pitts, 503 U.S. 467, 494 (1992) (allowing race-based action under the Equal Protection Clause to remedy the past effects of intentional discrimination). 23 a strong basis in evidence that, had it not taken the action, it would have been liable under the disparate-impact statute.” Ricci, 557 U.S. at 563. The Court understood that its decision—and the strong basis in evidence standard—would significantly “constrain[] employers’ discretion in making race-based decisions.” Rather than presume the race-conscious action to be legal, Ricci mandates that courts inquire whether the employer has a strong basis in evidence to support a valid defense. Id. After Ricci, the question in all Title VII cases where the employer’s conduct is facially discriminatory is “whether the [employer] had a lawful justification for its race-based action.” Id. at 579-80. The D.C. Circuit below rejected this approach, holding instead that Ricci only applies where an employer “modif[ies] the outcomes of personnel processes for the asserted purpose of avoiding disparate-impact liability under Title VII.” App. A-22. The lower court’s decision renders Ricci toothless. Simply by asserting an “opportunity-based” justification for their race-based conduct, employers are relieved from proving a lawful justification for a race-based decision; it becomes the employee’s burden to prove the race-based decision was illegal. App. A-22. For example, under the lower court’s theory, the exact same race-based conduct this Court held violated Title VII in Ricci—the City of New Haven’s decision to throw out the test results—would have been upheld had the City explained its actions as a general desire to increase opportunities for racial minorities instead of a specific desire to avoid disparate impact liability. It makes little sense that an employer must assemble a “strong basis in evidence” when it has a good faith belief that it might be violating Title VII’s disparate 24 impact provisions, but its actions are presumed lawful—and it need not produce any evidence—if it discriminates to “increase opportunity.” Under the D.C. Circuit’s holding, the justification for the discrimination determines how the court reviews the race-based action, and conflicts with Ricci’s presumption that race-based action is illegal and demands an extraordinary justification to be upheld. Compare App. A-22, with Ricci, 557 U.S. at 579-80. The lower court’s decision would permit race-based employment decisions even where the employer has no evidence of a potential disparate impact violation. Under the lower court’s view, race-based conduct undertaken to avoid disparate impact is different in kind from race-based conduct intended to create opportunities for minorities. App. A22. But the Ricci Court unambiguously held that an employer must prove, by a strong basis in evidence, that it will lose a Title VII disparate impact lawsuit before it can legally engage in disparate treatment. 557 U.S. at 585. Thus, a fortiori, an employer should not be able to engage in disparate treatment when there is absolutely no fear of a disparate impact lawsuit. The decision below undermines Ricci, because it invites employers to avoid Ricci altogether by announcing a more “benign” purpose for identical race-based decisions. The Court should grant the petition and reverse the lower court’s decision severely limiting Ricci, as it permits the federal government to engage in overt race-based discrimination under Title VII. 25 II CERTIORARI SHOULD BE GRANTED BECAUSE THE DECISION BELOW RADICALLY INCREASES THE NUMBER OF RACE-BASED AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PLANS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EMPLOYERS CAN ADOPT Even if Johnson and Weber apply to claims brought under Section 717, the Court should grant certiorari to review the D.C. Circuit’s decision. If the lower court’s application of Johnson and Weber remains good law, all employers—public or private—will have vastly greater authority to engage in overt racial discrimination. No other circuit court permits race-based affirmative action by employers when the action is targeted at a job category without a manifest racial imbalance. This Court’s decisions in Johnson and Weber permit affirmative action programs that would otherwise violate Title VII as long as they address a “manifest imbalance” in a “traditionally segregated job category.” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 632. The requirement that the imbalance be in a “traditionally segregated job category” serves to limit the scope of the preferences, so that “race will be taken into account in a manner consistent with Title VII’s purpose of eliminating the effects of employment discrimination, and that the interests of those employees not benefitting from the plan will not be unduly infringed.” Id. In order to serve those interests, employers cannot be given license to use racial preferences, unless the program is targeted at remedying the imbalance where it actually exists. 26 But the decision below permits more than this type of narrow remedial program. The D.C. Circuit considered evidence of a “manifest imbalance” between the races at the Senior Foreign Service to justify an affirmative action program aimed at the mid-levels of the Foreign Service. App A-28-A-32. Other circuits have only applied Johnson-Weber to imbalances existing in the particular job that is challenged—not any job with the same employer. For example, in Higgins v. City of Vallejo, the Ninth Circuit found that the manifest imbalance standard was satisfied only after an analysis of the imbalances that existed at all levels of the city’s fire department. 823 F.2d 351, 356 (9th Cir. 1987). And in Stuart v. Roache, the First Circuit upheld a consent decree that specifically applied to both entry-level hires and promotions. 951 F.2d 446, 452 (1st Cir. 1991); see also Doe v. Kamehameha Schools/Bernice Pauahi Bishop Estate, 470 F.3d 827, 862 (9th Cir. 2006) (en banc) (Bybee, J., dissenting) (criticizing the majority’s misapplication of Johnson-Weber: “Until today, two findings were required to satisfy this first factor: (1) the present existence of a manifest imbalance in a particular job category in the employer’s workforce; and (2) that this imbalance stems from historical segregation in that job category.”) (emphasis added). Johnson-Weber is a narrow exception to the “neutrality principle” of Title VII. See Ann C. McGinley, The Emerging Cronyism Defense and Affirmative Action: A Critical Perspective on the Distinction Between Colorblind and Race-Conscious Decision Making Under Title VII, 39 Ariz. L. Rev. 1003, 1008 (1997). The rationale for permitting limited race-based decision making is remedial; as this Court 27 has said in the Equal Protection context, “[u]nless they are strictly reserved for remedial settings, [classifications based on race] may in fact promote notions of racial inferiority and lead to a politics of racial hostility.” Croson, 488 U.S. at 493. The decision below stretches that remedial purpose and allows employers to use race to correct non-existent problems. This case highlights the difficulties with the D.C. Circuit’s radical extension of Johnson and Weber. The Department’s decision to remedy a racial imbalance at the Senior Foreign Service by giving preferences to minority applicants to mid-level grades is a prototypical example of buying unclear benefits at undeniable costs. See Parents Involved in Cmty. Schs. v. Seattle Sch. Dist. No. 1, 551 U.S. 701, 745 (2007). The connection between racial preferences at the mid-level and racial balance at the Senior Foreign Service is attenuated at best, since mid-level officers hoping for promotions to the senior levels require good fortune just as much as good qualifications. Of course, the Department has not produced—and cannot produce—any evidence that the minority groups that benefit from the Affirmative Action Plan would still be underrepresented in the Senior Foreign Service many years down the road when these preferences could be expected to take effect. Nor could any such plan be “limited in time.” Grutter v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 306, 342 (2003). The Department’s purported justification for racial preferences at the mid-level—rectifying the racial imbalance at the Senior Foreign Service—is even more dubious in light of statutes allowing the President to fill five percent of the Senior Foreign Service through direct appointment. See 22 U.S.C. 28 § 3901, et seq. The President is also authorized to appoint members of the Senior Executive Service directly to the Senior Foreign Service, 22 U.S.C. § 3945, even after the five-percent cap is met. See id. (exempting Senior Executive Service members serving under limited appointments in the Senior Foreign Service from the five-percent cap). Thus, many potential Senior Foreign Service officers may not even come from the pool of candidates the Department relies on to remedy the racial imbalance in the Senior Foreign Service. As the President—in consultation with the Department may appoint qualified minorities to the Senior Foreign Services directly, and rectify any racial imbalance immediately, the Department does not need to resort to the sordid use of racial preferences at the mid-levels to rectify the racial imbalance at the Senior Foreign Service many years later. Ë CONCLUSION “Weber and Johnson were willing to permit affirmative action programs without giving all employers license to discriminate in favor of any group that currently finds itself disadvantaged anywhere in the labor market.” Doe, 470 F.3d at 862 (Bybee, J., dissenting). The decision below poses a threat to that proposition by granting an employer the license to discriminate throughout an organization in response to a manifest racial imbalance in one particular, specialized job category. In addition, the decision below extends Johnson and Weber to allow the federal government to adopt race-conscious affirmative action plans despite Section 717’s unambiguous text forbidding such plans. This Court should grant the 29 petition to resolve the radical expansion of JohnsonWeber created by the panel below. DATED: December, 2015. Respectfully submitted, MERIEM L. HUBBARD RALPH W. KASARDA JOSHUA P. THOMPSON* WENCONG FA *Counsel of Record Pacific Legal Foundation 930 G Street Sacramento, California 95814 Telephone: (916) 419-7111 Facsimile: (916) 419-7747 E-mail: jthompson@pacificlegal.org Counsel for Petitioner No. _______ In the Supreme Court of the United States Ë WILLIAM E. SHEA, v. Petitioner, JOHN F. KERRY, Secretary of State, in his official capacity, Respondent. Ë On Petition for Writ of Certiorari to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit Ë APPENDIX TO PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI Ë MERIEM L. HUBBARD RALPH W. KASARDA JOSHUA P. THOMPSON* *Counsel of Record Pacific Legal Foundation 930 G Street Sacramento, California 95814 Telephone: (916) 419-7111 Facsimile: (916) 419-7747 E-mail: jpt@pacificlegal.org Counsel for Petitioner Petition for Writ of Certiorari filed December 7, 2015 i TABLE OF CONTENTS Opinion of the Court of Appeals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 Judgment of the Court of Appeals . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 Order Withholding Issuance of Mandate . . . . . . . C-1 District Court Memorandum Opinion . . . . . . . . . D-1 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1 Appendix A–1 United States Court of Appeals FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT Argued January 20, 2015 Decided August 7, 2015 No. 13-5153 WILLIAM E. SHEA, APPELLANT V. JOHN F. KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE, IN HIS OFFICIAL CAPACITY, APPELLEE Appeal from the United States District Court for the District of Columbia (No. 1:02-cv-00577) Joshua P. Thompson argued the cause for appellant. With him on the briefs were Meriem L. Hubbard and Ralph W. Kasarda. Darrell C. Valdez, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the cause for appellee. With him on the brief were Ronald C. Machen Jr., U.S. Attorney, and R. Craig Lawrence, Assistant U.S. Attorney. Before: ROGERS and SRINIVASAN, Circuit Judges, and WILLIAMS, Senior Circuit Judge. Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge SRINIVASAN. Concurring opinion filed by Senior Circuit Judge WILLIAMS. SRINIVASAN, Circuit Judge: From 1990 to 1992, the State Department had in place a hiring plan aimed to increase racial diversity among the officer corps in Appendix A–2 the United States Foreign Service. William Shea, a white Foreign Service Officer, brings suit alleging that the hiring plan violated Title VII. Although Shea challenges a plan that ceased to exist over twenty years ago, he joined the Foreign Service during the two years the plan was in effect. He alleges that, because of the plan, he entered the Foreign Service at a lower level than would have been the case had he been a minority applicant. The district court viewed Shea’s claim to be controlled by the Supreme Court’s decisions in Johnson v. Transportation Agency, Santa Clara County, California, 480 U.S. 616 (1987), and United Steelworkers of America, AFL-CIO-CLC v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193 (1979). Those decisions upheld employers’ affirmative action plans against Title VII challenges. The district court, following Johnson and Weber, granted summary judgment in favor of the State Department. We agree with the district court and affirm its judgment. I. A. The United States Foreign Service, a branch of the United States Department of State, works through its Foreign Service Officers to “advocate American foreign policy, protect American citizens, and promote American interests throughout the world.” Taylor v. Rice, 451 F.3d 898, 900 (D.C. Cir. 2006). Foreign Service Officers “perform traditional diplomatic responsibilities, including trade promotion, political and economic reporting, and consular services and protection.” Id. Appendix A–3 In 1990, Shea applied for an entry-level Foreign Service Officer position. At the time, the Foreign Service career ladder consisted of six pay grades, ranging from FS-06 (entry level) to FS-01 (upper level), with the Senior Foreign Service (SFS) a step above FS-01. The Department generally filled vacancies at more senior ranks through internal promotions rather than external hires. Applicants from outside the agency thus ordinarily entered the Officer corps only at the junior levels (FS-04, -05 and -06 levels). In May 1992, Shea joined the Foreign Service at the FS-05 level. B. In the years preceding Shea’s application to the Foreign Service, the State Department faced significant scrutiny about the lack of diversity of the Foreign Service Officer corps. In 1985, Congress perceived an underrepresentation of minorities among Foreign Service Officers. Congress therefore enacted legislation directing the Department to “develop . . . a plan designed to increase significantly the number of members of minority groups . . . in the Foreign Service,” with a “particular emphasis on achieving significant increases in the numbers of minority group members . . . in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service,” the FS-02 and -03 levels. Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1986 and 1987, Pub. L. No. 99-93, § 152(a), (b), 99 Stat. 405, 428 (1985). Two years later, Congress remained unsatisfied. Concluding that the State Department “ha[d] not been successful in [its] efforts . . . to recruit and retain members of minority groups,” Congress instructed the Department to “substantially increase [its] efforts” to ensure that the “Foreign Service becomes truly Appendix A–4 representative of the American people throughout all levels of the Foreign Service.” Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1988 and 1989, Pub. L. No. 100-204, § 183(a), (a)(1), (b)(1), 101 Stat. 1331, 1364 (1987). Congress specifically directed the Department to “ensure that those [efforts] effectively address the need to promote increased numbers of qualified . . . members of minority groups into the senior levels of the Foreign Service.” Id. § 183(b)(2). Congress did not stand alone in raising concerns about the diversity of the Foreign Service Officer corps. In 1989, the General Accounting Office (now known as the Governmental Accountability Office) released a report entitled “State Department: Minorities and Women Are Underrepresented in the Foreign Service.” The 1989 GAO Report evaluated the Department’s existing efforts, finding that, while “[p]rogress ha[d] been mixed” in increasing diversity, [m]inorities . . . were still substantially underrepresented when compared with civilian labor force data that the EEOC ha[d] issued to measure federal agencies. . . . In mid-level ranks of the officer corps, minority male representation ha[d] increased, but minority and white women ha[d] made less progress. In State’s Senior Foreign Service positions, underrepresentation of minorities and white women [wa]s still pervasive. U.S. Gen. Accounting Office, State Department: Minorities and Women Are Underrepresented in the Foreign Service 15 (1989) (1989 GAO Report). Appendix A–5 The 1989 GAO Report compared the Department’s 1987 minority workforce with the racial breakdown of the American population possessing the skills required for Foreign Service employment. That comparison indicated that the Department generally fell short of “full representation”—the level at which a minority group would make up the same proportion of the workforce as its proportion of the American population possessing the relevant skills—at mid- and seniorlevel Foreign Service Officer positions, as follows: for women of each defined minority group at the SFS, FS-01, -02, and -03 levels; black, Native American and native Alaskan men at the SFS level; Hispanic men at the SFS and FS-01 levels; and Asian and Pacific Islander men at the SFS, FS-01, -02, and -03 levels. The Civil Service Subcommittee of the House Committee on Post Office and Civil Service convened hearings focusing on the 1989 GAO Report’s findings and on the results of two other studies—the Bremer Study Group Report (commissioned by the Secretary of State on his own initiative) and the Thomas Commission Report (mandated by Congress as part of the 1988-1989 Foreign Relations Authorization Act). Representative Gerry Sikorski, the Subcommittee’s Chairman, interpreted those two studies to “disclose[] major problems of discrimination against . . . minorities in the Foreign Service.” Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service: Hearing Before the Subcomm. on the Civil Serv. of the H. Comm. on Post Office & Civil Serv., 101st Cong. 3 (1989) (1989 Subcomm. Hearing). Those studies, he concluded, revealed that “management of the U.S. Foreign Service [was] seriously flawed.” The Department of State in the 21st Century: Joint Hearing Before the Subcomm. on Int’l Ops. of the H. Comm. on Appendix A–6 Foreign Affairs & the Subcomm. on the Civil Serv. of the H. Comm. on Post Office & Civil Serv., 101st Cong. 6 (1989) (1989 Joint Hearing). As of 1989, minorities remained underrepresented in Foreign Service Officer roles. Id. And that was after years of concerns voiced by Congress and repeated warnings from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission “that the State Department ha[d] not had an effective . . . plan or program for overcoming the underrepresentation [of minorities] in the Foreign Service.” U.S. Gen. Accounting Office, Testimony: Underrepresentation of Minorities and Women in the Foreign Service, Statement of Joseph Kelley, Director of Security and International Relations Issues, National Security and International Affairs Division, Before the Subcommittee on Civil Service, Committee on Post Office and Civil Service, United States House of Representatives 1 (1989). The Department undertook various measures in response, including creating a special hiring path for minorities into the Foreign Service’s mid- and upper-level ranks—the affirmative action plan in issue here. C. At the time of Shea’s entry into the Foreign Service, the State Department operated two distinct programs that enabled applicants to bypass the Department’s usual preference for internal promotions and allowed the direct hiring of outside applicants into mid- and upper-level (FS-01, -02 and -03) positions. One program, the Career Candidate Program (CCP), was race-neutral. The other program, the 1990-92 Affirmative Action Plan (1990-92 Plan), targeted minority applicants. Appendix A–7 Under the CCP, the Department accepted certain applications from outside candidates for FS-01, -02, and -03 positions. But the Department, in accordance with its general preference for filling vacancies through internal promotions, could hire an otherwise viable outside applicant through the CCP only if the Department issued a “certificate of need” attesting that no internal candidates could fill that vacancy. The Department would then consider the outside applicant consistent with its typical hiring procedures. In the absence of a certificate of need, no outside candidate could receive an offer of employment through the CCP. Under the race-conscious 1990-92 Plan, the Department provided a special path for minorities seeking direct placement as outside hires into the FS-01, -02, and -03 ranks. The 1990-92 Plan gave one—and only one—advantage to minority applicants: an automatic waiver of the CCP’s certificate-of-need requirement for “American Indians, Alaska Native[s], Asians and Pacific Islanders, Blacks, and Hispanics.” U.S. Dep’t of State, Foreign Service Mid-Level Hiring Program Highlights 1 (1989). Apart from the certificate-of-need waiver at the threshold stage, the 1990-92 Plan granted no benefits to minorities in the course of the hiring process. That process was rigorous: The “vast majority” of minority candidates applying through the 1990-92 Plan “were eliminated from competition at the preliminary review stage.” Id. D. In 2001, Shea filed an administrative grievance with the State Department. Among other claims, he argued that he started at a lower pay grade by virtue of the 1990-92 Plan’s preferential treatment of minority applicants, infringing his rights under Appendix A–8 Title VII as well as the equal protection component of the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment. The Foreign Service Grievance Board dismissed his complaint for lack of jurisdiction, and Shea then filed suit in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Shea’s case initially traveled back and forth between the district court and this court on the question of whether his Title VII and equal protection claims had been timely filed. (As to the remaining claims, Shea did not appeal their dismissal.) See Shea v. Kerry, 961 F. Supp. 2d 17, 22-25 (D.D.C. 2013). Ultimately, after Congress enacted the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009, Pub. L. No. 111-2, 123 Stat. 5, the district court found that Shea’s Title VII claims were timely under the Ledbetter Act but that his equal protection claims were untimely. See id. at 24, 29 & n.3. Proceeding to the merits, the district court granted summary judgment to the State Department. Id. at 55. The court first determined that the Supreme Court’s Title VII affirmative action decisions in Weber, 443 U.S. 193, and Johnson, 480 U.S. 616, controlled the analysis. Those decisions, the district court explained, called for application of the three-step burden-shifting framework articulated by the Court in McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792 (1973). Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 27-29. At the first step, the district court concluded that Shea had established a prima facie case of discrimination in violation of Title VII. Id. at 31-33. Turning to the second step, the court found that the Department had proffered evidence that, if accepted as true, permitted the conclusion that the Department Appendix A–9 had acted pursuant to a lawful affirmative action plan. Id. at 33-44. Finally, at the third step, the district court considered whether Shea had shown that the affirmative action plan was, in fact, unlawful. The court rejected Shea’s proffer of lay statistical evidence to that end, and thus concluded that he had failed to raise any genuine issue concerning the validity of the Department’s affirmative action plan. The court therefore granted summary judgment in favor of the Department. Id. at 55. II. We review de novo the district court’s grant of summary judgment on Shea’s Title VII claim. Holcomb v. Powell, 433 F.3d 889, 895 (D.C. Cir. 2006). Before addressing the merits of that claim, we first assure ourselves of Shea’s standing to bring it. Although the Department raises no challenge to his standing, “it is well established that the court has an independent obligation to assure that standing exists, regardless of whether it is challenged by any of the parties.” Summers v. Earth Island Inst., 555 U.S. 488, 499 (2009). To demonstrate his standing, Shea must show, inter alia, that he suffered an injury in fact that is both “concrete and particularized” and “actual or imminent, not conjectural or hypothetical.” Lujan v. Defenders of Wildlife, 504 U.S. 555, 560 (1992) (quotation marks omitted). In the context of an employment discrimination claim, a plaintiff may claim an injury in fact from the purported denial of the ability to compete on an equal footing against other candidates for a job. See Ne. Fla. Chapter of the Associated Gen. Contractors of Am. v. City of Jacksonville, Fla., 508 U.S. 656, 666 (1993); Cerrato v. S.F. Cmty. Coll. Dist., 26 F.3d 968, Appendix A–10 976 (9th Cir. 1994). Because the injury lies in the denial of an equal opportunity to compete, not the denial of the job itself, we do not inquire into the plaintiff’s qualifications (or lack thereof) when assessing standing. See Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265, 280-81 & n.14 (1978). Shea alleges that the 1990-92 Plan denied him the opportunity to compete on an equal basis by extending a preference to minority candidates that was unavailable to him: the ability to gain consideration for entry to a mid-level position without any certificate of need. Shea could have sought direct mid-level placement through the race-neutral CCP program, however. He did not do so, instead applying only for an entry-level FS-05 position. There is thus a question whether Shea suffered an actual or imminent injury as a result of the 1990-92 Plan, or whether his injury was merely hypothetical. The Supreme Court’s decision in Gratz v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 244 (2003), found the existence of standing in parallel circumstances. In Gratz, one of the plaintiffs, Patrick Hamacher, sought to challenge the University of Michigan’s consideration of race in its undergraduate transfer admissions. At the time of the suit, Hamacher had yet to apply to transfer to Michigan. Indeed, the Court’s opinion indicated that he would not do so as long as Michigan’s race-conscious admissions program remained in place: Hamacher instead declared that he “intend[ed] to transfer to the University of Michigan when [it] cease[d] the use of race as an admissions preference.” Id. at 261 (emphasis added). The Supreme Court sua sponte questioned Hamacher’s standing to bring his challenge, ultimately concluding that he had shown an injury in fact. The Appendix A–11 Court reasoned that, because of Hamacher’s stated intent to transfer should Michigan change its policy, he had established standing. Id. at 261-62. Gratz controls our inquiry. Like Hamacher, Shea alleges that he possessed an intent to apply to the position in question, i.e., a mid-level position. Pl.’s Decl. in Supp. of Pl.’s Surreply at 3-4 (filed Dec. 14, 2012). If the mid-levels had been open to him for equal consideration on a race-neutral footing, he would have applied to the mid-levels instead of the entry-level. Thus, like Hamacher, Shea stood “able and ready to apply [to the mid-levels] should the [State Department] cease to use race” as a factor in mid-level hiring. Id. (quotation marks omitted). By choosing not to apply because the Department was considering race during the time of his application process, Shea did exactly what Hamacher alleged he would do: refuse to apply through the raceconscious program unless and until that program’s use of race-conscious preferences ceased. As a result, Shea, like Hamacher, has standing to challenge the Department’s affirmative action plan notwithstanding his failure to apply for a mid-level position through the CCP program. III. Title VII prohibits an employer from “discriminat[ing] against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or privileges of employment, because of” inter alia, “such individual’s race.” 42 U.S.C. § 2000e-2(a)(1). The statute protects both minorities and nonminorities—the latter against “reverse discrimination.” See Mastro v. Potomac Elec. Power Co., 447 F.3d 843, 851 (D.C. Cir. 2006). Here, Shea alleges that the State Department’s 1990-92 Plan Appendix A–12 constituted impermissible reverse discrimination in violation of Title VII. A. At the outset, we consider the governing framework for resolving Shea’s reverse-discrimination claim. For nearly thirty years, we have examined Title VII challenges to affirmative action programs under the standards set forth by the Supreme Court in United Steelworkers of America, AFLCIO-CLC v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193 (1979), and Johnson v. Transportation Agency, Santa Clara County, California, 480 U.S. 616 (1987). Shea argues that those standards have been displaced by the Supreme Court’s decision in Ricci v. DeStefano, 557 U.S. 557 (2009), such that Johnson and Weber no longer guide the analysis of reverse-discrimination claims under Title VII. We are unpersuaded. 1. In Weber, the Supreme Court for the first time considered a Title VII challenge to an employer’s affirmative action plan. As of 1974, Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corp. had an “almost exclusively white craftwork force[],” with black employees making up only 1.83% of the company’s skilled craftworkers at its Gramercy, Louisiana, plant, even though the workforce in the area surrounding that plant was roughly 39% black. Weber, 443 U.S. at 198-99. As part of a collective-bargaining agreement, Kaiser promised to implement “an affirmative action plan designed to eliminate [that] conspicuous racial imbalance[].” Id. at 198. The company established job-training programs to teach both black and white employees the necessary skills for promotion to craftworker positions. Id. Appendix A–13 at 198-99. Selection of trainees for the program would be made on the basis of seniority, but “with the proviso that at least 50% of the new trainees were to be black until the percentage of black skilled craftworkers in the Gramercy plant approximated the percentage of blacks in the local labor force.” Id. at 199. A white unskilled production worker from the plant sued, arguing that Title VII prohibited all race-conscious employer actions. Id. at 199, 201. The Supreme Court disagreed and upheld Kaiser’s affirmative action plan. The Court declined to “define in detail the line of demarcation between permissible and impermissible affirmative action plans,” but concluded that Kaiser’s plan fell “on the permissible side of the line.” Id. at 208. The trainee-selection plan, the Court approvingly noted, aimed to “break down old patterns of racial segregation and hierarchy” and “open employment opportunities for [black workers] in occupations which have been traditionally closed to them.” Id. (quotation marks omitted). The Court set out the considerations that caused it to uphold the company’s plan as follows: [T]he plan does not unnecessarily trammel the interests of the white employees. The plan does not require the discharge of white workers and their replacement with new black hirees. Nor does the plan create an absolute bar to the advancement of white employees; half of those trained in the program will be white. Moreover, the plan is a temporary measure; it is not intended to maintain racial balance, but simply to eliminate a manifest racial imbalance. Preferential selection of craft trainees at the Appendix A–14 Gramercy plant will end as soon as the percentage of black skilled craftworkers in the Gramercy plant approximates the percentage of blacks in the local labor force. Id. at 208-09 (citation omitted). For those reasons, the plan fell “within the area of discretion left by Title VII to the private sector voluntarily to adopt affirmative action plans designed to eliminate conspicuous racial imbalance in traditionally segregated job categories.” Id. at 209. 2. Nine years later, in Johnson, the Court again rejected a Title VII challenge to an employer’s affirmative action program. The case arose from the efforts of Santa Clara County, California, to increase diversity in portions of its workforce. The County sought to address a striking gender imbalance in certain positions: Women constituted 36.4% of the labor market in the area, but “none of [the County’s] 238 Skilled Craft Worker positions was held by a woman.” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 621. The County implemented a voluntary affirmative action plan with a stated “long-term goal” to “attain a work force whose composition reflected the proportion of minorities and women in the area labor force.” Id. at 621-22. The County’s plan “authorized the consideration of ethnicity or sex as a factor when evaluating qualified candidates for jobs in which members of such groups were poorly represented,” but it did not set aside a specific number of hiring slots for women or racial minorities. Id. at 622. In upholding the County’s plan, the Court determined that the analysis should follow the Appendix A–15 three-step burden-shifting framework set forth in McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792 (1973). Under that framework: Once a plaintiff establishes a prima facie case that race or sex has been taken into account in an employer’s employment decision [step one], the burden shifts to the employer to articulate a nondiscriminatory rationale for its decision [step two]. The existence of an affirmative action plan provides such a rationale. If such a plan is articulated as the basis for the employer’s decision, the burden shifts to the plaintiff to prove that the employer’s justification is pretextual and the plan is invalid [step three]. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626. Application of that framework, the Johnson Court emphasized, “does not mean . . . that reliance on an affirmative action plan is to be treated as an affirmative defense requiring the employer to carry the burden of proving the validity of the plan. The burden of proving its invalidity remains on the plaintiff.” Id. at 627. The Johnson Court explained that it would “be guided by [its] decision in Weber.” Id. In Weber, the Court noted, it had blessed an affirmative action plan that (i) sought to “eliminate manifest racial imbalances in traditionally segregated job categories”; and (ii) did not “unnecessarily trammel the interests of white employees.” Id. at 628-30. The Court found the requisite “manifest imbalance” to exist in Johnson in light of the complete absence of women in the positions in question. Id. at 636. The Court further determined that the County’s plan did not “unnecessarily trammel[] the rights of male employees” based on a Appendix A–16 number of factors (without ascribing weight or rank to any single one). Id. at 637-40. In particular, the plan imposed “goals,” not “quotas.” Id. at 638. The plan worked such that “[n]o persons [were] automatically excluded from consideration; all [were] able to have their qualifications weighed against those of other applicants,” with gender considered only as a “plus.” Id. The plan did not abrogate any “absolute entitlement” of male employees, as it operated only in the context of promotions, the denial of which would “unsettle[] no legitimate, firmly rooted expectation[s].” Id. And the plan was temporary, in that it “was intended to attain a balanced work force, not to maintain one.” Id. at 639. For nearly three decades, Johnson has guided courts—including ours—in the analysis of Title VII claims alleging unlawful reverse discrimination. See, e.g., Hammon v. Barry (Hammon II), 826 F.2d 73 (D.C. Cir. 1987); see also Petitti v. New England Tel. & Tel. Co., 909 F.2d 28 (1st Cir. 1990); Taxman v. Bd. of Educ., 91 F.3d 1547 (3d Cir. 1996) (en banc); Smith v. Va. Commonwealth Univ., 84 F.3d 672 (4th Cir. 1996) (en banc); Edwards v. City of Houston, 37 F.3d 1097 (5th Cir. 1994); Janowiak v. Corporate City of S. Bend, 836 F.2d 1034 (7th Cir. 1984); Tharp v. Iowa Dep’t of Corr., 68 F.3d 223 (8th Cir. 1995); Doe v. Kamehameha Sch./Bernice Pauahi Bishop Estate, 470 F.3d 827 (9th Cir. 2006) (en banc); Cunico v. Pueblo Sch. Dist. No. 60, 917 F.2d 431 (10th Cir. 1990); In re Birmingham Reverse Discrimination Emp’t Litig., 20 F.3d 1525 (11th Cir. 1994). Appendix A–17 3. In 2009, the Supreme Court decided Ricci v. DeStefano, 557 U.S. 557. In Ricci, the Court considered the City of New Haven’s actions in the aftermath of the City’s administration of a firefighter promotional examination. The results of the exam showed a statistical racial disparity: White candidates had outperformed minority candidates. Id. at 562. Some firefighters threatened to bring a discrimination lawsuit if the City relied on the test in making promotions. Id. The City responded by throwing out the test results. A group of white and Hispanic firefighters sued the City under Title VII, claiming that, by discarding the test, the City had engaged in unlawful reverse discrimination against them. Id. at 562-63. The Supreme Court ruled in the firefighters’ favor. The Court understood that the City’s “objective” in discarding the tests was to “avoid[] disparate-impact liability” under Title VII. Id. at 579. But the Court concluded that, by rejecting the results of the promotional test “because of the statistical disparity based on race,” the City had engaged in “express, race-based decisionmaking.” Id. The Court held that “racebased action like the City’s in this case is impermissible under Title VII unless the employer can demonstrate a strong basis in evidence that, had it not taken the action, it would have been liable under” Title VII’s disparate-impact prohibition. Id. at 563; see id. at 585. That is, the Court held that the City could not invalidate the test results based on the race of the highest scorers for the asserted purpose of avoiding a disparate-impact lawsuit, unless the City had a strong basis in evidence to believe that it would be found Appendix A–18 liable in such a suit. The City could not meet that burden. Id. at 592. Shea argues that Ricci upends Johnson and Weber such that those earlier decisions no longer guide our analysis here. Under Johnson and Weber, we would first assess the sufficiency of Shea’s prima facie case, then turn to the State Department’s proffer of a valid affirmative action plan, and finally examine Shea’s efforts to demonstrate the invalidity of that plan. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626. Throughout, Shea would retain the burden of proving the invalidity of the Department’s 1990-92 Plan. Id. at 627. Ricci changed all of this, Shea submits: After Ricci, Shea argues, we must jettison Johnson and Weber’s framework and instead ask whether the State Department can show “a strong basis in evidence that, had it not [instituted an affirmative action plan], it would have been liable” for discrimination under Title VII. Ricci, 557 U.S. at 563 (emphasis added). And, if the Department proves unable to put forth the requisite “strong basis in evidence” in support of that showing, Shea contends, the Department would be liable under Title VII for impermissible reverse discrimination. The Department initially argues that Shea forfeited any argument based on Ricci by failing to present that argument to the district court. We disagree. Although forfeiture principles apply to new arguments raised for the first time on appeal, see Potter v. District of Columbia, 558 F.3d 542, 547 (D.C. Cir. 2009), Shea’s argument has been consistent throughout the litigation: The Department’s 1990-92 Plan impermissibly discriminated against him in violation of Title VII. On appeal, Shea enjoys a measure of latitude to elaborate on his theory in Appendix A–19 service of the same argument. His reliance on Ricci for the first time on appeal lies within that latitude. Moreover, although Shea did not press a Ricci-based argument before the district court, the district court invoked Ricci on its own, observing that “nothing in Ricci directly overturns or modifies Johnson, at least as it applies to this case.” Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 54 n.17. Shea is permitted to respond on appeal by explaining why he thinks Ricci governs this case. See Citizens United v. Fed. Election Comm’n, 558 U.S. 310, 330 (2010). Shea’s argument based on Ricci fails on the merits, however. Johnson and Weber are directly applicable to this case. They set out the framework for “evaluating the compliance of an affirmative action plan with Title VII’s prohibition on discrimination,” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 640, the precise question in issue here. Those decisions unquestionably would control our analysis unless a subsequent decision dictates otherwise. Ricci is not such a decision. In reaching that conclusion, we draw guidance from the Supreme Court’s admonition against concluding that its “more recent cases have, by implication, overruled an earlier precedent.” Agostini v. Felton, 521 U.S. 203, 237 (1997). Rather, if “a precedent of [the Supreme] Court has direct application in a case, yet appears to rest on reasons rejected in some other line of decisions, the Court of Appeals should follow the case which directly controls, leaving to [the] Court the prerogative of overruling its own decisions.” Id. Here, Johnson and Weber have “direct application,” and we have no occasion or cause to conclude that Ricci, “by implication,” overruled those decisions. Id. Indeed, Ricci does not mention or even Appendix A–20 cite—much less discuss—Johnson and Weber. That is understandable, as Ricci, by its own description, addressed a particular situation not in issue here. Cf. Ricci, 557 U.S. at 626 (Ginsburg, J., dissenting) (“[Ricci] does not involve affirmative action.”). In Ricci, the Court’s “analysis beg[an] with this premise: The City’s actions would violate the disparate-treatment prohibition of Title VII absent some valid defense.” Id. at 579. The inquiry prescribed by Johnson and Weber, by contrast, pertains to assessing whether there is a violation of Title VII’s disparate-treatment prohibition in the first place, the same question we address here. The specific question addressed in Ricci was whether, even though the City’s action in discarding the test results was assumed to violate Title VII’s disparate-treatment prohibition, that action could be justified based on a particular objective asserted by the City: avoiding liability in a Title VII disparate-impact lawsuit. The Court expressly framed its holding by reference to actions taken for that particular purpose: We hold only that, under Title VII, before an employer can engage in intentional discrimination for the asserted purpose of avoiding or remedying an unintentional disparate impact, the employer must have a strong basis in evidence to believe it will be subject to disparate-impact liability if it fails to take the race-conscious, discriminatory action. Id.; see id. at 580 (“We consider, therefore, whether the purpose to avoid disparate-impact liability excuses what otherwise would be prohibited disparatetreatment discrimination.”) (emphasis added). Appendix A–21 The employers in Johnson and Weber did not modify the outcomes of personnel processes for the asserted purpose of avoiding disparate-impact liability under Title VII. Nor did the State Department here. The Department, like the employers in Johnson and Weber, instead acted to “expand[] job opportunities for minorities and women,” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 622, and to “eliminate traditional patterns of racial segregation,” Weber, 443 U.S. at 201; see id. at 209 & n.9. Ricci does not purport to reach the Department’s actions in pursuit of those purposes. Weber and Johnson therefore still control. The only other court of appeals of which we are aware to have addressed the interaction between Ricci and the Johnson-Weber framework reached the same conclusion. See United States v. Brennan, 650 F.3d 65, 102-04 (2d Cir. 2011). IV. Under the framework established by Johnson and Weber, we ask first if Shea establishes a prima facie case of discrimination. Second, we examine whether the State Department can articulate a nondiscriminatory reason—in this case, a valid affirmative action plan—for its actions. Finally, we assess whether Shea carries his burden to prove that the Department’s plan is invalid. The district court found that Shea and the Department made the requisite showings at the first and second steps, respectively. The court then found Shea to falter at the third step and therefore granted summary judgment in favor of the Department. We agree at each step. A. We first address whether Shea has made out a prima facie case of reverse discrimination in violation Appendix A–22 of Title VII. At the outset, we note that neither party has addressed the potential implications of our decision in Brady v. Office of Sergeant at Arms, 520 F.3d 490 (D.C. Cir. 2008), for Johnson’s direction to assess whether the “plaintiff establishes a prima facie case,” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626. Brady explained that, when “an employee has suffered an adverse employment action and an employer has asserted a legitimate, non-discriminatory reason for the decision, the district court need not—and should not—decide whether the plaintiff actually made out a prima facie case.” 520 F.3d at 494. Rather, “the district court must resolve one central question: Has the employee produced sufficient evidence for a reasonable jury to find that the employer’s asserted non-discriminatory reason was not the actual reason and that the employer intentionally discriminated against the employee on the basis of” a prohibited characteristic? Id. We have since invoked Brady in the context of a reverse-discrimination claim. See Ginger v. District of Columbia, 527 F.3d 1340, 1344 (D.C. Cir. 2008). We have not, however, specifically applied Brady in the context of a reverse-discrimination suit challenging the validity of an employer’s affirmative action plan under Title VII. In that domain, Johnson has long set forth the governing approach. Because no party on appeal argues that Brady should alter that framework, and because the existence of a prima facie case is readily resolved in this case in Shea’s favor, we leave for another day the resolution of the interaction between Brady and Johnson. We therefore proceed on the assumption that Johnson’s framework—including its call for examining the establishment of a prima facie case—is controlling for our purposes. Appendix A–23 Here, the State Department contests Shea’s establishment of a prima facie case in only one respect. As part of the showing necessary to make out a prima facie case of discrimination (or reverse discrimination) in violation of Title VII, a plaintiff must establish that he has been subjected to an adverse employment action. George v. Leavitt, 407 F.3d 405, 412 (D.C. Cir. 2005). The Department argues on appeal, for the first time in this case’s long history, that Shea suffered no adverse employment action from his hiring at an entry-level (rather than mid-level) position because he never applied for direct mid-level placement, either through the 1990-92 Plan or through the race-neutral CCP. We do not reach the merits of that argument because the Department forfeited it by failing to raise it until this late stage. Although “we may affirm a judgment on any ground that the record supports and that the opposing party had a fair opportunity to address,” Jones v. Bernanke, 557 F.3d 670, 676 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (internal citation and quotation marks omitted), an argument “never made below is waived on appeal,” id. (citing Marymount Hosp., Inc. v. Shalala, 19 F.3d 658 (D.C. Cir. 1994)). The Department at no point in the previous fourteen years of litigating this case contended that Shea’s failure to apply for a mid-level position could affect his establishment of a prima facie case. It has instead fought Shea’s prima facie showing on other grounds. “[A]bsent exceptional circumstances not present here, it is not our practice to entertain issues first raised on appeal.” Marymount Hosp., 19 F.3d at 663 (quoting Roosevelt v. E.I. Du Pont de Nemours & Co., 958 F.2d 416, 419 & n.5 (D.C. Cir. 1992)) (quotation marks omitted). We adhere to that practice today. Because the Department has forfeited any Appendix A–24 argument that Shea suffered no adverse employment action, and because the Department otherwise does not challenge his establishment of a prima facie case on appeal, we agree with the district court that Shea has made that showing. B. At the second step of Johnson’s framework, the Department must “articulate a nondiscriminatory rationale for its decision.” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626. Johnson observes that “[t]he existence of an affirmative action plan provides such a rationale.” Id. We do not understand Johnson to mean, however, that an employer establishes a legitimate, nondiscriminatory reason for its decision merely by showing that it acted pursuant to an affirmative action plan. See Hill v. Ross, 183 F.3d 586, 590 (7th Cir. 1999). Rather, the Johnson framework maps onto McDonnell Douglas’s three steps. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626-27. To satisfy its burden of production at the second McDonnell Douglas step, the State Department must “introduce evidence which, taken as true, would permit the conclusion that there was a nondiscriminatory reason for” its actions. St. Mary’s Honor Ctr. v. Hicks, 509 U.S. 502, 509 (1993) (emphasis omitted). And while a valid affirmative action plan is considered nondiscriminatory, see Parker v. Balt. & Ohio R.R. Co., 652 F.2d 1012, 1017 n.9 (D.C. Cir. 1981), an invalid affirmative action plan is discriminatory, see Taxman, 91 F.3d at 1567. As a result, the Department needs to produce “evidence which, taken as true, would permit the conclusion” that it acted for a “nondiscriminatory reason,” i.e., pursuant to a valid affirmative action plan. Hicks, 509 Appendix A–25 U.S. at 509 (emphasis omitted); see Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 33-34. We have explained that, under Johnson and Weber, a valid affirmative action plan should satisfy two general conditions. First, a valid plan rests on an adequate factual predicate justifying its adoption, such as a “manifest imbalance” in a “traditionally segregated job categor[y].” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 631; see Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 74-75. Second, a valid plan refrains from “unnecessarily trammel[ing] the rights of [white] employees.” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 637-38; see Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 81. We take up those considerations in order. 1. The district court concluded that the Department adequately grounded its 1990-92 Plan in evidence of a manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category. See Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 34-39. We agree. a. Ascertaining the existence of a “manifest imbalance” is a “fact-specific task” in a “sensitive and delicate area.” Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 75. One method that may be used to demonstrate such an imbalance—and the one relied on by the State Department here—entails a showing of statistical disparities between the racial makeup of the employer’s workforce and that of a “comparator population.” If the positions in question “require no special expertise,” the comparator population would be “‘the area labor market or general population.’” Id. (citation omitted) (quoting Johnson, 480 U.S. at 632). But for “jobs that require special training,” the ‘“comparison should be with those in the labor force Appendix A–26 who possess the relevant qualifications.’” Id. (citation omitted) (quoting Johnson, 480 U.S. at 632). When the Department adopted the 1990-92 Plan, the agency had before it two analyses comparing its own workforce with the labor pool possessing the relevant qualifications: (i) the 1989 GAO Report, and (ii) a formal analysis conducted by the Department itself when promulgating the 1990-92 Plan. The Department points to those two statistical studies as its principal evidence of a manifest imbalance between minority representation in the Foreign Service and the comparator population. Shea contends that the Department cannot rely on either of those studies. He argues that the 1990-92 Plan amounted only to a continuation of a preexisting affirmative action plan in place from 1987-89, and that the 1990-92 Plan thus was actually adopted in 1987. Shea submits that any data on which the Department purports to justify any affirmative action plan must have been in its possession when it promulgated the plan—which, by Shea’s account, would have been in 1987, before either the 1989 GAO Report or the 1990-92 Plan’s analysis. Consequently, Shea argues, the State Department is foreclosed from invoking either study as a justification for its actions. We assume arguendo the correctness of Shea’s premise that the Department cannot justify its race-conscious actions by reference to post hoc data collection. Even so, Shea errs in contending that the Department cannot rely on the 1989 GAO Report or the findings contained in the 1990-92 Plan to justify the Plan. The district court concluded that the Department’s 1987-89 affirmative action efforts and the 1990-92 Plan in fact were two different plans. See Appendix A–27 Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 30. We would tend to agree. But even if otherwise, the 1990-92 Plan at the very least amounted to a review and overhaul of the Department’s affirmative action efforts. See, e.g., U.S. Dep’t of State, Multi-Year Plan, FY 1990-92 at 51 (rev. version Apr. 30, 1991) (1990-92 Plan Document) (assembling new diversity statistics for purposes of the 1990-92 Plan); id. at 61 (noting that the 1987-89 plan “has been refined . . . to define better the type of candidate to be recruited” (emphasis added)). “When a program that has been reauthorized is challenged, all evidence available to the [decisionmaker] prior to reauthorization must be considered in assessing” the program’s legality. Rothe Dev. Corp. v. U.S. Dep’t of Def., 262 F.3d 1306, 1328 (Fed. Cir. 2001). Accordingly, even if the 1990-92 Plan amounted to a reauthorization of the Department’s 1987-89 affirmative action efforts, and even if the Department cannot justify its actions based on post hoc data, the 1989 GAO Report and the findings contained in the 1990-92 Plan are a proper evidentiary proffer. The version of the 1990-92 Plan in our record contains the Department’s employment data from 1989 and 1990. As the 1989 data represent the data in the State Department’s possession both at the time it promulgated the 1990-92 Plan and at the time Shea applied to the Foreign Service, we use that data (though we note that the minor differences between the 1989 and 1990 data would have no impact on our conclusions today). The 1990-92 Plan’s findings showed improvement in the Foreign Service’s diversity from the time of the 1989 GAO Report. The combined FS-02 and -03 levels, for instance, showed underrepresentation only for Native Americans and Alaskans. See 1990-92 Plan Document at 46a; 47a. For Appendix A–28 other minority populations at the combined FS-02 and -03 positions, there were no imbalances, manifest or otherwise. As a result, Shea contends, the Department cannot justify the 1990-92 Plan by claiming that it addressed manifest imbalances for all minority groups at those levels. The Department initially asserts that the 1990-92 Plan established “goals” only for groups specifically shown in the data to be underrepresented. We take this to mean, for example, that, at the combined FS-02 and -03 levels, “goals” would have been set only for Native Americans and Alaskans, and not for other minority populations. If the “goals” operated such that only members of the underrepresented minority groups received favorable treatment in the application process relative to Shea, the Department’s argument would have force. But the Department provides no information about how the “goals” would have worked in practice. And we find no description in the record. All that we can glean from the record is that all minority applicants received the main benefit available under the 1990-92 Plan—waiver of the certificateof-need requirement for entry into the FS-01, -02, and -03 levels. The Department’s defense of the 1990-92 Plan stands on stronger footing, however, with regard to more senior-level positions. Looking up the ranks from the FS-02 and -03 levels, the Department identified a more across-the-board manifest imbalance. The Department first points to the FS-01 level. According to the 1990-92 Plan data, all minority groups were underrepresented at the FS-01 level at the time of the plan’s promulgation. To achieve full representation, the number of black Officers at that level would have Appendix A–29 needed to increase by 62%, Hispanics by 14%, Native Americans and Alaskans by 256%, and Asians and Pacific Islanders by 47%. See 1990-92 Plan Document at 46a; 47a. The Department also points to the ranks of the SFS. The 1990-92 Plan, so far as we can tell, contains no specific data on diversity in the SFS. Accordingly, we look to the SFS findings from the 1989 GAO Report. Those findings show underrepresentation of all minority groups at the SFS level. And the imbalances are manifest: To achieve full representation, the number of black Officers in the SFS would have needed to increase by 154%, Hispanics by 163%, Asians and Pacific Islanders by 700%, and, for Native Americans and Alaskans, by an undefined percentage (because the Foreign Service had no SFS Officer of Native American or Alaskan origin). See 1989 GAO Report at 17. b. Johnson speaks in terms not just of any manifest imbalance, but of a manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category. 480 U.S. at 631. As the Court explained, the “requirement that the manifest imbalance relate to a traditionally segregated job category provides assurance” that “race will be taken into account in a manner consistent with Title VII’s purpose of eliminating the effects of employment discrimination.” Id. at 632 (quotation marks omitted). That approach guards against licensing an employer to seek proportional representation purely for its own sake. The Department must make a showing that, if taken as true, would permit the conclusion that the manifest imbalance resulted from a “predicate of discrimination” rather than from benign forces. Hammon II, 826 F.2d Appendix A–30 at 74-75, 80-81. We find that the Department has done so. First, the substantial imbalances at the SFS level themselves indicate that discriminatory practices may well have been afoot. While a significant disparity is not itself dispositive, “ranks [that are] overwhelming[ly] white” are “a powerful present-day demonstration of a prior regime of discrimination.” Hammon v. Barry (Hammon I), 813 F.2d 412, 427 (D.C. Cir. 1987) (referring to Weber). Here, the disparity between white and non-white SFS Officers qualifies as overwhelming. Of the 655 serving SFS Officers counted by the 1989 GAO Report, 631 were white. See 1989 GAO Report at 17. “[F]ine tuning of the[se] statistics could not have obscured the glaring absence of minority” officers. Int’l Bhd. of Teamsters v. United States, 431 U.S. 324, 342 n.23 (1977). Second, testimony before Congress concerning the 1989 GAO Report, the Bremer Study Group Report, and the Thomas Commission Report provided Congress with evidence of pervasive historical discrimination in the Foreign Service tracing as far back as the 1960s. For example, one witness testified that, when he “entered on duty in State in late 1965 . . . [he] had [his] first experience with discrimination, aside from what [he] had experienced while stationed in the South,” and further noted that “[m]inorities have been underrepresented purposefully” within the Department. 1989 Subcomm. Hearing at 33, 39. Another witness, focusing on gender discrimination at the Department, explained that, while “[i]nstances of blatant sexism and discrimination have declined, . . . some do still take place,” and “a simple glance at the statistics contained in the [1989 GAO Report] . . . will Appendix A–31 confirm the continued existence of a problem.” Id. at 42. The former EEOC Commissioner offered his assessment that “[t]he State Department wants to hire what I call the mythical American, the 5'10,” 160 pound WASP man in perfect physical and mental health.” J.A. 342. And the Department’s Deputy Assistant for Equal Opportunity and Civil Rights provided testimony that, around the world, he had “encountered complaints of discrimination from [State’s] employees and criticisms from foreigners for that same discrimination as exhibited by our predominantly white male diplomatic corps.” Id. at 13. To the House Subcommittee on the Civil Service, such testimony likely came as no surprise. While the record before us does not contain the underlying materials, Representative Sikorski, the Subcommittee Chairman, stated his belief that those reports confirmed a State Department inadequately concerned with diversity. Previous investigations and hearings by his subcommittee, he stated, “documented serious instances of discriminatory treatment by the Foreign Service of women, minorities, and people with handicaps.” 1989 Joint Hearing at 10. His testimony included the revelation that “more than 240 Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) cases” had been filed and indications that previous efforts to diversify the Foreign Service championed by the Secretary of State were “largely ignored by the Department.” Id. Moreover, he noted, the Department had “been repeatedly cited by the [EEOC] for submitting deficient [diversity] reports.” Id. The 1989 GAO Report noted that, despite repeated criticism including suggestions of bias, the State Department never “conducted analyses of possible impediments to equal employment opportunity.” 1989 GAO Report at 4. Appendix A–32 This case is therefore a far cry from our decisions in Hammon I and II, in which we determined that the District of Columbia had failed to demonstrate the predicate of discrimination necessary to justify an affirmative action program for its hiring of firefighters. The challenged plan purportedly addressed the District’s history of discriminatory hiring against black applicants. But during the relevant historical period, blacks made up an average of 41.8% of the firefighters hired each year, Hammon I, 813 F.2d at 427, and, at the time of the challenge, 37% of the firefighting workforce overall, Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 77. The proper comparator pool was 29.3% black. Hammon I, 813 F.2d at 428. In light of those figures, the District “steadfastly and persuasively protested its innocence of any discriminatory activity,” and we agreed. Id. at 427. Here, by contrast, evidence identified by the Department would permit the conclusion that there had been a past practice of discrimination with continuing effects through the early 1990s. We therefore agree with the district court that the Department made an adequate evidentiary proffer that the 1990-92 Plan “served to remedy the lingering effects of State’s past discrimination.” Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 39. 2. Having shown the necessary factual predicate for the 1990-92 Plan in the form of a manifest imbalance in a traditionally segregated job category, the Department faces one additional requirement: The plan must not have unnecessarily trammeled the rights of white applicants. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 637-38; Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 81. We, like the district court, Appendix A–33 conclude that the Department has made an adequate showing in this regard. a. There is “no precise formula for determining whether an affirmative action plan unnecessarily trammels the rights of non-beneficiaries.” In re Birmingham Reverse Discrimination Emp’t Litig., 20 F.3d at 1541. Rather, a number of considerations inform the inquiry. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 637-40; Weber, 443 U.S. at 208-09; Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 81. Those considerations weigh in favor of the 1990-92 Plan’s validity. First, the type of affirmative action plan matters. Affirmative action in hiring generally poses less of a concern than affirmative action in layoffs. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 638. Hiring decisions upset settled expectations to a lesser degree (because an applicant has no absolute entitlement to a job), and they affect a more diffuse group (all potential applicants) than do layoffs, which target specific employees. See United States v. Paradise, 480 U.S. 149, 183 (1987) (plurality opinion) (“Denial of a future employment opportunity . . . is not as intrusive as loss of an existing job.”) (quotation marks omitted); cf. Firefighters Local Union No. 1784 v. Stotts, 467 U.S. 561, 578-79 (1984). Here, the 1990-92 Plan awarded benefits to minority candidates only in the hiring process, and even then, only at the very initial stage. Second, the degree of benefit, or “plus,” bestowed by the affirmative action plan can make a difference. Affirmative action resulting in the hiring only of qualified candidates more easily survives scrutiny than affirmative action resulting in the hiring of unqualified Appendix A–34 beneficiaries. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 637-38. In this case, the Department’s 1990-92 Plan provided for hiring only of qualified candidates: Minority applicants considered through the 1990-92 Plan underwent the same rigorous application path as did white candidates considered through the race-neutral CCP, with the only difference coming in the form of the certificate-of-need waiver at the threshold. Third, the goals of the affirmative action plan affect the inquiry. A plan that seeks to achieve full representation for the particular purpose of remedying past discrimination will generally be shorter in duration than one that pursues proportional diversity for its own sake. When a plan pursues only the former goal, it presumably would cease to operate once full representation is achieved. And the shorter the time period for which a plan is in operation, the less it could be said adversely to affect non-beneficiaries. In Weber, for instance, the Court approvingly observed that the plan it upheld was “not intended to maintain racial balance, but simply to eliminate a manifest racial imbalance.” 443 U.S. at 208; see Johnson, 480 U.S. at 639-40. Here, the 1990-92 Plan sought to attain more proportional representation, not to maintain it in perpetuity. Indeed, the 1990-92 Plan ceased to operate in 1993 and has not been replaced. Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 41-42. Fourth, the extent to which the challenged plan limits opportunities for advancement by non-beneficiaries is a relevant consideration. In both Johnson and Weber, the Court observed that the plan in question created no “absolute bar” to the advancement of non-beneficiaries. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 637-38; Weber, 443 U.S. at 208. Here, Shea makes Appendix A–35 no argument that the 1990-92 Plan engendered any “absolute bar” to the advancement of non-minorities in the Foreign Service ranks. Non-minority candidates from outside the agency could apply directly to the mid-level ranks through the race-neutral CCP, and internal white candidates could—and did—gain promotion to mid-level positions from the Foreign Service entry-level ranks. b. Our court has understood the need to avoid “unnecessarily” trammeling the rights of non-minority candidates to indicate that a challenged affirmative action plan generally must be “tailored to fit the violation” sought to be addressed. Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 74; see id. at 81. Here, the 1990-92 Plan granted a certificate-of-need waiver to candidates applying to the FS-01, -02, and -03 levels. The Department’s identified manifest imbalances, however, occurred at only the more senior levels. Why bestow benefits at the FS-02 and -03 levels if the manifest imbalances sought to be addressed existed only at more senior positions? To do so, Shea contends, means that the 1990-92 Plan was so overinclusive as to unnecessarily trammel the rights of white applicants at the FS-02 and -03 levels. The Department submits that there is a sound explanation for targeting the FS-02 and -03 levels to address an imbalance at more senior levels. The 1990-92 Plan satisfies the tailoring requirement, the Department explains, because the FS-02 and -03 levels serve as the training grounds for learning the skills necessary to perform at the SFS and FS-01 levels. We agree. Appendix A–36 The plan upheld in Weber is instructive. The employer in Weber aimed to remedy the manifest imbalance in its ranks of skilled workers: a mere 1.83% of its skilled workers were black, while the labor force in the surrounding area was 39% black. 443 U.S. at 198-99. To address the identified imbalance in its skilled workforce, however, the employer could not simply hire laborers lacking the requisite skills. Rather, it needed to hire laborers after they had acquired those skills. The employer established a training program to tackle that problem, stipulating that 50% of all employees entering the training program would be black until the percentage of black skilled workers in its workforce approximated the percentage in the local labor force. See id. at 199. Weber thus provides an example of an affirmative action plan going beyond strictly proportional representation in a training program: 50% of the spots would go to the company’s black workers, even though black persons made up only 39% of the area labor force. Employees who had completed Weber’s training program could then proceed to the rank of skilled worker, where the manifest imbalance existed. The need to create an adequate pipeline of trained workers meant that the program was sufficiently tailored to target the “manifest imbalance” among skilled workers. The State Department’s 1990-92 Plan worked similarly. In order to attain full representation at the SFS and FS-01 levels, the Department maintains, it had to go beyond strictly proportional minority representation at the FS-02 and -03 levels. It could then choose from qualified minority candidates at those levels to staff its SFS and FS-01 ranks. Appendix A–37 With regard to the SFS, the Department’s hiring regulations in place at the time of the 1990-92 Plan demonstrate that the Department valued a certain set of skills in its SFS Officers and believed that the best way for SFS candidates to gain those experiences was through service in the mid-level Foreign Service ranks. The regulations provided that career SFS Officers “normally shall be appointed as the result of promotion of Mid-Level career officers,” and generally limited the SFS to a maximum of five percent external hires at any given time. Appointment of Members of the Foreign Service, 48 Fed. Reg. 38,606, 38,607 (Aug. 25, 1983). Additionally, career SFS applicants generally had to have completed at least five years of service in a position “of responsibility . . . equivalent to that of a Mid-Level Foreign Service officer (classes FS-1 through FS-3),” with “duties and responsibilities . . . similar to or closely related to that of a Foreign Service officer in terms of knowledge, skills, abilities, and overseas work experience.” Id. The difficulties encountered by those directly promoted to a mid- or high-level position in the Foreign Service, which usually included a “prolonged adjustment period” and experiencing “a competitive disadvantage,” further suggest that percolating through the ranks was, generally, a sounder career path. The conclusion from the then-existing regulations is straightforward: The Department believed that the best training for the role of a SFS Officer was experience as an FS-01, -02, or -03 Foreign Service Officer. The Department similarly valued skills gleaned from experience at the FS-02 and -03 ranks for the position of an FS-01, with outside hires into the FS-01 ranks serving as the small exception to the Department’s general internal promotion ladder. See Appendix A–38 J.A. 343, 516-17. Shea has introduced no evidence contradicting that understanding. In view of the Department’s assessment that the most qualified candidates for the SFS and FS-01 ranks would come from its own mid-levels, the Department understandably saw a need to go further than strictly proportional representation in its mid-levels. That was necessary, the Department reasonably concluded, in order to have a sufficient reservoir of talented minority candidates from which to hire in order to achieve diversity in its SFS and FS-01 ranks. Otherwise, assuming that promotion rates were the same across races from the mid-levels to the SFS and FS-01 levels, the Department would need to await a great deal of turnover in the overwhelmingly white SFS and FS-01 ranks before the substantial imbalances at those levels would be rectified. Congressional testimony on the 1989 GAO Report reveals that very concern. Joseph Kelley of the General Accounting Office, in response to questioning about when “the State Department [would] become representative of the American people,” told Congress that “[i]t is going to take a long time,” and noted that the EEOC had been pushing the Department “to have a program to move people around and to have upper-level promotions, but it ha[d]n’t worked out that well.” 1989 Subcomm. Hearing at 29-30. The Department required a method by which to augment the flow of minority candidates to the SFS and FS-01 levels. As Representative Sikorski observed, “if the numbers [only] get[] better in . . . entry level and hiring,” then “there is no upward progress. There is no flow in the right direction. We are talking centuries.” Id. at 29-30. Appendix A–39 It is no answer to claim that the Department could simply promote minorities to the SFS and FS-01 levels at higher rates than their non-minority peers. That itself would have been a race-conscious action requiring justification. That option, at any rate, appears to have been non-viable. Testimony before Congress indicated that promotions of minorities to high-level positions were already happening “too fast,” such that the Department began “to get a backlash” that promotions were “not [of] qualified . . . minorities” and that those promoted were “not really ready to make this jump.” Id. at 47. Title VII does not require the Department to promote unqualified candidates to execute the important mission of our diplomatic corps. For those reasons, the 1990-92 Plan’s emphasis on hiring at mid-level positions was adequately tailored to address manifest imbalances at the senior levels. At its root, finally, the unnecessary trammeling inquiry amounts to an exercise in balancing a plan’s attempts to remedy past discrimination against the plan’s adverse impact on the rights of non-minorities. In this case, the latter impact was unquestionably limited. The 1989 GAO Report indicates that the State Department had 655 SFS Officers, 836 FS-01 Officers, and 2,032 FS-02 or -03 Officers. 1989 GAO Report at 17. Against that backdrop, the Department informs us that only sixteen minority candidates were hired into the midlevels through the 1990-92 Plan over the three calendar years of its operation. With such a modest effect on the hiring process, the 1990-92 Plan was necessarily limited in the extent to which it could “trammel” Shea’s rights, “unnecessarily” or otherwise. c. Appendix A–40 The tailoring inquiry, according to our decisions, also takes into account whether the employer considered race-neutral alternatives. See Hammon II, 826 F.2d at 81. While the program we considered in Hammon failed to pass muster because “reasonable alternatives were not seriously discussed,” Hammon I, 813 F.2d at 430, the district court in this case found the Department’s evidence to show that it turned to the 1990-92 Plan’s race-conscious measures only after race-neutral efforts failed to bear fruit. Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 40-41. We agree. The record documents a number of previous attempts to correct the identified imbalances without resort to explicit racial preferences, particularly through recruiting and outreach. From 1964 on, the Department targeted historically black institutions as part of its “diplomat in residence” program, through which it assigned a senior-level Foreign Service Officer to research, writing, and teaching duties at a university in an effort to generate interest in the Foreign Service among students. 1989 GAO Report at 24. From 1980 on, the Department made a concentrated recruiting push to stimulate an increase in minority applicants, including by “provid[ing] information packages to colleges . . . and ask[ing] college coordinators to encourage minorities. . . to take the annual written [Foreign Service] examination.” Id. at 22-23. The Department’s recruiters made special efforts to visit colleges and universities with large minority enrollments. Id. at 23. Ultimately, however, the Department concluded that its “recruiting efforts [did] not increase[] the number of minorities taking the FS examination for officer positions.” Id. And in 1986, the Secretary of State implemented a recommendation from black Foreign Service Officers aimed at elevating Appendix A–41 minority written exam pass rates by increasing minority enrollment in university courses relevant to the exam. That initiative, too, apparently proved unsatisfactory. See id. at 25. The Department also instituted “sensitivity training” between “senior management” and “senior minorities” to address the gap, with little success. J.A. 369-70. Moreover, it considered implementing an entirely race-neutral mid-level entry program, but rejected that option as unlikely to be effective—an understandable conclusion in light of the inadequacy of State’s earlier reliance on “the promotion of entry level FS officers to eliminate underrepresentation at more senior levels.” J.A. 301, 543. The 1990-92 Plan thus hardly constituted the Department’s maiden effort to solve its persistent diversity problem, and Shea points to no other race-neutral alternatives that should have been considered. The Department, in short, has introduced evidence that the 1990-92 Plan worked to target manifest imbalances in senior-level positions in the Foreign Service Officer corps, and that those imbalances resulted from past discrimination. It has also introduced evidence that the Plan refrained from unnecessarily trammeling the rights of non-minority candidates. We therefore conclude that the Department satisfies its burden to introduce evidence that, if taken as true, demonstrates the 1990-92 Plan’s validity under Johnson and Weber. Appendix A–42 V. Having concluded that the Department met its burden of production at the second step of the Johnson-McDonnell Douglas framework, we ask at the final step whether Shea has proven that the Department’s “justification is pretextual and the plan is invalid.” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626. In the district court, Shea introduced his own lay statistical evidence in an attempt to show that the Department’s identified manifest imbalances did not exist. See Shea, 961 F. Supp. 2d at 45-53. The district court rejected every piece of statistical evidence proffered by Shea as inadmissible. See id. Shea does not appeal those findings, and he raises no other claims of the 1990-92 Plan’s invalidity for purposes of Johnson’s third step. He therefore necessarily fails to carry his burden at that step, warranting the entry of summary judgment in favor of the Department. * * * * * For the foregoing reasons, we affirm the district court’s grant of summary judgment. So ordered. Appendix A–43 WILLIAMS, Senior Circuit Judge, concurring: I join the court’s opinion painstakingly applying the key Supreme Court cases, Johnson v. Transp. Agency, Santa Clara Cnty., 480 U.S. 616 (1987), and United Steelworkers v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193 (1979). I write separately to note that this area of the law continues to be rather amorphous and to call attention to a statistical problem disclosed by the record but not raised by the plaintiff on appeal. Nearly three decades ago Judge Silberman observed that he was “uncertain as to the meaning of ‘manifest imbalance.’” Hammon v. Barry, 826 F.2d 73, 81 (D.C. Cir. 1987) (Silberman, J., concurring in denial of rehearing). I fully share that uncertainty, and would add that I have the same reaction to all of the key terms prescribed by the Supreme Court for assessing affirmative action plans under Title VII: whether there has been “manifest imbalance” in a “traditionally segregated job category,” and whether the plan “unnecessarily trammels the rights” of the persons disfavored. Court Op., 24. It may be that the Supreme Court selected these terms to assure that, without saying it in so many words, an employer can use race and gender for hiring or promoting minorities or women to the extent appropriate to assure that there is no “underrepresentation”—i.e., to amend any nontrivial deviation from proportionality to some more or less plausible applicant pool (at least so long as the employer can muster vague, generalized and/or hearsay assertions of past discrimination). This is not a self-evident interpretation of Title VII’s directive that employers are not “to discriminate against any individual . . . because of such individual’s race [or] sex.” Appendix A–44 The effect is especially striking here: Shea neither challenged the district court’s ruling that his analysis of the State Department’s calculations was inadmissible, Court Op. 40, nor its ruling that the affirmative action plan’s repeated declarations of “manifest imbalance” were sufficient without expert provision of statistical support. See Shea v. Kerry, 961 F. Supp. 2d 17, 51-52 (D.D.C. 2013). The figures underpinning State’s plan consist mainly of numerical comparisons of various subgroups of Foreign Service employees (“Administrative,” “Professional,” “Clerical,” etc.) with a selected comparison group based on the “National Civilian Labor Force” data for various types of workers, e.g., “Public Administration Administrators and Officials.” Joint Appendix (“J.A.”) 209, 216. The description of the study in the record, J.A. 209, does not state what statistical test or standard of statistical significance the authors used, or indeed whether they used any statistical method at all. Certainly they do not suggest that they made an adjustment in the standard for statistical significance to account for the multiplicity of subgroups, as would be necessary if we assume that State was seeking to identify only “imbalances” not attributable to random chance. “When interpreting . . . a table which summarizes results from a number of comparisons, one must bear in mind that when the number of comparisons is large [State’s report included hundreds], the probability may be substantial that at least one disparity with a P-value less than .05 will occur because of pure chance.” David C. Baldus & James W. L. Cole, Statistical Proof of Discrimination § 9.03 (Supp. 1987); see also id. at n.24a (“It is a mathematical fact that where 17 independent comparisons are to be tested, the probability of finding one or more to be statistically Appendix A–45 significant at the .05 level is .58, or almost 6 chances in 10.”). Further impairing the value of the analysis is that many of the subsets are so small as to indicate a complete lack of intelligible criteria for State’s assertions of “manifest imbalance,” a term the report often uses but never explains. The report contains charts that split the workforce three ways (by occupational subgroup, ethnicity, and gender), and in one case it announces that it “reveals” a “manifest imbalance” of American Indian females (who represent 0.2% of the labor force comparison data) in the Finance Officer division, which employs only 125 people. J.A. 224-25. It seems improbable that any statistical test or standard of significance could yield evidence of a non-random “imbalance” for so small a subgroup. To the extent the report is suggesting that some purported “imbalances” could be amended by the hiring of a single employee of the right ethnicity and gender in the occupational unit in question, that response would, in turn, presumably create “imbalance” in another direction—thus appearing to undermine whatever criteria may have been used to define “manifest imbalance.” See, e.g., J.A. 218-19; 224-25. I recognize that Johnson is quite specific in stating that the proof of imbalance needed as a prerequisite for race- and gender-based affirmative action preferences is less than what is needed to establish a prima facie case of a Title VII violation, 480 U.S. at 632-33, but an employer performing this exercise should at least be able to state its criteria for “manifest imbalance.” The State Department in this respect sounds rather like the defendant university in Hill v. Ross, 183 F.3d 586, 591 (7th Cir. 1999): “What the University Appendix A–46 appears to have in mind is a world in which the absence of discrimination means that every department would exactly mirror the population from which its members are hired. But that is statistical nonsense.” In Hill, Judge Easterbrook went on to explain in detail what made the university’s theories nonsensical. Without close attention, Johnson’s seeming license to pursue proportionality in a workforce can dissolve into a license to pursue proportionality in almost any subset of the workforce. Appendix B–1 United States Court of Appeals FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT No. 13-5153 September Term, 2014 FILED ON: AUGUST 7, 2015 WILLIAM E. SHEA, APPELLANT V. JOHN F. KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE, IN HIS OFFICIAL CAPACITY, APPELLEE Appeal from the United States District Court for the District of Columbia (No. 1:02-cv-00577) Before: ROGERS and SRINIVASAN, Circuit Judges, and WILLIAMS, Senior Circuit Judge JUDGMENT This cause came on to be heard on the record on appeal from the United States District Court for the District of Columbia and was argued by counsel. On consideration thereof, it is ORDERED and ADJUDGED that the judgment of the District Court appealed from in this cause is hereby affirmed, in accordance with the opinion of the court filed herein this date. Per Curiam Appendix B–2 FOR THE COURT: Mark J. Langer, Clerk BY: /s/ Ken Meadows Deputy Clerk Date: August 7, 2015 Opinion for the court filed by Circuit Judge Srinivasan. Concurring opinion filed by Senior Circuit Judge Williams. Appendix C–1 United States Court of Appeals FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT No. 13-5153 September Term, 2014 1:02-cv-00577-RCL Filed On: August 7, 2015 [1566750] William E. Shea, Appellant v. John F. Kerry, Secretary of State, in his official capacity, Appellee O R D E R It is ORDERED, on the court’s own motion, that the Clerk withhold issuance of the mandate herein until seven days after disposition of any timely petition for rehearing or petition for rehearing en banc. See Fed. R. App. P. 41(b); D.C. Cir. Rule 41. This instruction to the Clerk is without prejudice to the right of any party to move for expedited issuance of the mandate for good cause shown. FOR THE COURT: Mark J. Langer, Clerk BY: /s/ Ken R. Meadows Deputy Clerk Appendix D–1 961 F. Supp. 2d 17 United States District Court, District of Columbia. William E. SHEA, Plaintiff, v. John F. KERRY, Secretary U.S. Department of State1, Defendant. 1 On February 1, 2013, John F. Kerry succeeded Hillary Clinton as the United States Secretary of State. Since this suit is against the Secretary of State in his or her official capacity only, the Court will substitute Secretary Kerry as defendant in this matter, per Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 25(d). No. CIV. 02-577 RCL May 10, 2013. Synopsis Background: White former Foreign Service officer, proceeding pro se, brought Title VII reverse discrimination claim against Department of State, alleging he would have been eligible for higher placement but for his race. Parties cross-moved for summary judgment. Holdings: The District Court, Royce C. Lamberth, Chief Judge, held that: [1] officer established prima facie Title VII reverse discrimination claim; [2] significant minority underrepresentation motivated adoption of Mid-Level Affirmative Action Plan (MLAAP); Appendix D–2 [3] Department established predicate of discrimination caused racial imbalances in employment; [4] Department considered alternatives to explicit racial preferences; [5] MLAAP did not foreclose opportunities for non-minority hiring and advancement; [6] MLAAP did not burden non-minorities; and [7] officer’s use of statistics was not admissible. Plaintiff’s motion denied; defendant’s motion granted. Attorneys and Law Firms William E. Shea, Laredo, TX, for Plaintiff. Darrell C. Valdez, William Mark Nebeker, U.S. Attorney’s Office, Washington, DC, for Defendant. MEMORANDUM OPINION ROYCE C. LAMBERTH, Chief Judge. Pro se plaintiff William Shea, a white career Foreign Service officer, brought this Title VII reverse discrimination action against the Department of State (“State”). Compl., Mar. 3, 2002, ECF No. 1. When State hired Shea in 1992, State operated an affirmative action program that made qualified minorities eligible for direct placement into mid-level classes of the Foreign Service. Shea claims he would have been eligible for this mid-level placement program but for his race and still feels the effect of his entry at a lower pay grade—each paycheck is less than it would have been if he entered as a mid-level officer. This case suffered a series of fits and starts, largely attributable to Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Appendix D–3 Co., 550 U.S. 618, 127 S. Ct. 2162, 167 L.Ed.2d 982 (2007) and the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, Pub. L. No. 111-2 (Jan. 29, 2009). Since Shea based his claim on the continuing effects of a discriminatory decision made in 1992, his claim was time-barred until passage of the Lilly Ledbetter Act. The substantive merits are finally ripe for consideration as the Court considers each party’s motion for summary judgment. Under Title VII, Shea has the ultimate burden of proving that State’s affirmative action plan was unlawful. Shea cannot support an essential element of his claim with admissible evidence. He tries to prove, via his own amateur statistics, that minorities were not significantly under-represented in the Foreign Service mid-levels. Shea needs, and lacks, qualified testimony about the statistical significance of his findings. Therefore, State is entitled to summary judgment on Shea’s remaining claims and this case will be dismissed with prejudice. I. BACKGROUND A. Factual Background In 1985, Congress enacted the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1986 and 1987 (“198687 FRAA”). Pub. L. 99-93. The 1986-87 FRAA directed State to “develop . . . a plan designed to increase significantly the number of members of minority groups and women in the Foreign Service.” Pub. L. 9993, Title I, § 152(a). Congress further directed that “each plan developed pursuant this section shall . . . place particular emphasis in achieving significant increases in the numbers of minority group members and women who are in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service.” Pub. L. 99-93, Title I, § 152(b). Thereafter, State instituted the Mid-Level Affirmative Action Plan Appendix D–4 (“MLAAP”) under its more general Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Program (“MLCCP”). See Def.’s Statement of Facts Not in Genuine Dispute ¶ 3 (“Def.’s SMF”), Aug. 17, 2012, ECF No. 120-1; Pl.’s Response to Def.’s Statement of Material Facts Not in Dispute 7-8 (“Pl.’s SMF Resp.”), Aug. 30, 2012, ECF No. 123-4 (only objecting to defendant’s statement that MLAAP was “in response” to FRAA). Although white women were not qualified to participate in the MLAAP, State created the “Federal Women Programs” and the Federal Women’s Program manager to develop and monitor programs aimed at greater female representation. Def.’s SMF ¶ 4; Pl.’s SMF Resp. (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 4). In 1987, Congress enacted the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1988 and 1989 (“198889 FRAA”). Pub. L. 100-204. In the 1988-89 FRAA Congress found: [T]hat the Department of State and other Foreign Service agencies have not been successful in their efforts—(1) to recruit and retain members of minority groups in order to increase significantly the numbers of minority groups in the Foreign Service; and (2) to provide adequate career advancement for women and members of minority groups in the senior levels of the Foreign Service. Pub. L. 100-204, Title I, § 183(a). Congress further required State to “substantially increase their efforts to implement effectively the plans required by” the 1986-87 FRAA and “ensure that those plans effectively address the need to promote increased numbers of qualified women and members of minority groups into the senior levels of the Foreign Service.” Pub. L. 100- Appendix D–5 204, Title I, § 183(b). State revised the MLAAP in November 1990 and instituted its FY 1990-92 MidLevel Affirmative Action Plan, which was in effect when Shea applied to, and was hired by, State. Def.’s SMF ¶ 9; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 10 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 9). Mid-level hiring allowed State to hire a Foreign Service candidate directly into a higher grade, rather than into an entry-level grade. Under the general mid-level hiring program, a candidate with the requisite experience could enter as a mid-level hire if State received a “certification of need” that State required an outside hire at that grade and with those qualifications. The Mid-Level Affirmative Action Plan dispensed with the “certification of need” requirement in favor of self-identification as American Indian, Alaskan Native, Asian and Pacific Islander, Hispanic, or African American. State required all candidates for mid-level hiring—both minority and non-minority—to (a) have substantial professional experience, (b) receive a passing grade on an oral examination, and (c) pass a background check. In February 1993, State ended the mid-level affirmative action program, but kept in place its more general mid-level hiring program. Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 10, 12-17; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 10-11 (admitting in all relevant respects Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 10, 12-17). In September 1990, William Shea—a white male of Irish descent—submitted an application to the Foreign Service. Shea never applied for mid-level placement through the general Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Program. In May 1993, State hired Shea as an entry-level career Foreign Service Officer; he came in at grade FS-05, step 5.2 Shea knew at the time he was hired that qualified minorities could start at Appendix D–6 higher grades, and that two people in his introductory class were starting at midlevel grades due to their participation in a minority mid-level hiring program. Shea did not file an administrative grievance until July 11, 2001—nine years after he entered the Foreign Service. Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 20-23, 26, 37; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 13-16 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 20-23, 26, 37). 2 In the Foreign Service personnel system, FS-05 is the entry-level grade and FS-01 is the senior grade. See Def.’s SMF ¶ 11; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 10 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 11). In his Complaint, Shea alleged that he would have passed the screening process of the MLAAP, but was excluded from consideration solely because of his race. Specifically, Shea alleged harm because his hiring at entry-level rather than mid-level grade has subjected him to lower pay and fewer promotion opportunities than members of minority groups admitted under the MLAAP, in violation of his rights under Title VII. See Compl. ¶¶ 1-2. B. Procedural Background On July 11, 2001, Shea filed a grievance with the State Department asserting, among other things, racial discrimination in violation of Title VII because of the disparate pay he was receiving. See Def.’s SMF ¶ 37; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 11 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 37); Compl. ¶¶ 1-2. On January 30, 2002, Shea received the decision of the Foreign Service Grievance Board dismissing Shea’s complaint for lack of jurisdiction. Compl. ¶ 2. Having exhausted his administrative remedies, Shea filed suit in this Court on March 26, 2002. His Complaint raised a Title VII challenge to the MLAAP, claiming he was injured by continuing to Appendix D–7 receive a lower paycheck than he would had he been eligible for mid-level placement though the MLAAP. The case was initially assigned to Judge James Robertson, who granted State’s Motion to Dismiss pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 12(b)(6) because Shea’s complaint and administrative grievance were untimely. Mem. & Order, Sept. 30, 2003, ECF Nos. 15 & 16. He found Shea’s “complaint amounted to no more than allegations of discrimination in May 1992, when he started at a lower pay grade.” Mem. 4, ECF No. 16. Judge Robertson held that each allegedly-diminished paycheck did not amount to a new, discrete discriminatory act that reset the clock for filing an administrative complaint. Id. at 3-4. Shea tried to rely on Anderson v. Zubieta, 180 F.3d 329 (D.C. Cir. 1999) and Bazemore v. Friday, 478 U.S. 385, 106 S. Ct. 3000, 92 L.Ed.2d 315 (1986) “for the proposition that, every time he received a paycheck for less than it would have been had he not been discriminated against, he was ‘discriminated against anew.” Id. at 4. However, Judge Robertson found that these cases were “inapposite,” because there was not a “ ‘discriminatory system in place,” akin to those in Bazemore and Anderson. Id. (quoting Niedermeier v. Office of Baucus, 153 F. Supp. 2d 23, 29 (D.D.C. 2001)). Furthermore, Judge Robertson dismissed Shea’s constitutional claims and his request for declaratory and injunctive relief. Id. at 4-5. Shea then appealed the district court’s ruling. See Notice of Appeal, Nov. 11, 2003, ECF No. 17. “While the district court dismissed all of his allegations on the pleadings—finding none stated a viable claim—Shea [sought] review of only one: i.e., that his pay and benefits are discriminatorily low because the State Appendix D–8 Department set his pay grade pursuant to a diversity program that disadvantaged him on account of his race (white) and ethnicity (Irish), in violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, 42 U.S.C. §§ 2000e, et seq., and the Equal Protection component of the Fifth Amendment, U.S. Const. amend V.” Shea v. Rice, 409 F.3d 448, 449 (D.C. Cir. 2005). The court of appeals found that “Bazemore holds that an employee may recover for discriminatorily low pay received within the limitations period because each paycheck constitutes a discrete discriminatory act,” id. at 455, reversed the district court’s dismissal, and remanded for further proceedings, id. at 456. While the case was on remand, the Supreme Court decided Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., 550 U.S. 618, 127 S. Ct. 2162, 167 L.Ed.2d 982 (2007) and brought the D.C. Circuit’s analysis into doubt. Judge Robertson denied State’s subsequent Rule 12(c) motion for judgment on the pleadings, but invited the parties to file for summary judgment after a fuller development of the factual record. See Order, Aug. 30, 2007, ECF No. 43. After the parties filed cross-motions for summary judgment, Judge Robertson found that Ledbetter effectively overturned the D.C. Circuit’s prior analysis. Shea v. Rice, 587 F. Supp. 2d 166, 168-69 (D.D.C. 2008). He stated that Shea’s argument “cannot be successfully distinguished from the ‘paycheck accrual rule’ that Ledbetter argued for and that the Supreme Court rejected.” Id. at 169. Bazemore could not save Shea because State did not engage in any “fresh discrimination” or continue a discriminatory system during the limitations period; it was undisputed that State ended its mid-level affirmative action program in 1993. Id. at 169-70. Therefore, Judge Robertson granted State summary judgment. Appendix D–9 Shea again appealed the dismissal of his case. See Notice of Appeal, Nov. 23, 2008, ECF No. 65. While Shea’s appeal was pending, Congress passed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009, Pub. L. No. 111-2, 123 Stat. 5 (2009), which abrogated the Supreme Court’s holding in Ledbetter. The D.C. Circuit remanded for reconsideration in light of this intervening change. Shea v. Clinton, No. 08-5491, 2009 WL 1153448, at *1 (D.C. Cir. Apr. 2, 2009). On remand, Judge Robertson reconsidered the parties’ summary judgment motions, examining arguments he did not reach earlier because he had disposed of the case on other grounds. Mem. Order, Aug. 11, 2009, ECF No. 69. He rejected State’s legislative immunity defense and found State did not have enough evidence to support a laches defense. Id. at 3-5. He then considered Shea’s Title VII challenge to the MLAAP. He applied the burden-shifting framework of McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792, 93 S. Ct. 1817, 36 L.Ed.2d 668 (1973), and considered Shea’s claims under the affirmative action jurisprudence of United Steelworkers v. Weber, 443 U.S. 193, 99 S. Ct. 2721, 61 L.Ed.2d 480 (1979), Johnson v. Transportation Agency, Santa Clara County, Cal., 480 U.S. 616, 107 S. Ct. 1442, 94 L.Ed.2d 615 (1987), and Hammon v. Barry, 826 F.2d 73 (D.C. Cir. 1987). Id. at 6-7. Judge Robertson stated that: The government will be liable to Shea on account of the affirmative action program that was in operation at State more than fifteen years ago only if Shea can show (a) that the program was unlawful—meaning generally that it was not designed to cure a manifest imbalance in the workforce; (b) that, Appendix D–10 except for his race, Shea was qualified for the program; and (c) that Shea was damaged during the period of limitations by the continuing effects of the MLAAP. Id. at 5-6. At that time, the factual record regarding the legality of State’s affirmative action plan had not been well developed. Id. at 8. Therefore, Judge Robertson denied both parties’ motions for summary judgment, id. at 11, and set a schedule for additional fact and expert discovery, see Scheduling Order, Sept. 23, 2009, ECF No. 73. Several miscellaneous motions followed. First, State objected to the Court’s treatment of the MLAAP as a voluntary affirmative action plan and requested reconsideration. See Def.’s First Mot. Reconsideration, Aug. 19, 2009, ECF No. 70. The Court denied this motion the next day. Order, Aug. 20, 2009, ECF No 71. On January 1, 2010, Shea filed his still-pending Motion for Summary Judgment, ECF No. 74. Thereafter, the Court allowed State to amend its discovery responses so State will not have been deemed to admit to several of Shea’s factual claims. See Order Granting Def.’s Mot. for Leave to File, Feb. 2, 2010, ECF No. 78. Judge Robertson retired in 2010, and the case was randomly reassigned to Judge Henry H. Kennedy on June 4, 2010. Reassignment of Civil Case, June 4, 2010, ECF No. 80. Less than a month later, the case was randomly reassigned to Judge Emmet G. Sullivan. Reassignment of Civil Case, June 30, 2010, ECF No. 83. Judge Sullivan extended all discovery until September 30, 2010. Minute Order, July 6, 2010; Revised Scheduling Order, July 6, 2010, ECF No. 84. Appendix D–11 Shea then filed a motion for reconsideration, challenging various aspects of Judge Robertson’s prior rulings. Pl.’s Mot. Reconsideration, July 23, 2010, ECF No. 85. Shea also moved to hold discovery deadlines in abeyance until resolution of this motion. ECF No. 86. In response, Judge Sullivan stayed the entire matter until an April 6, 2011 status conference. Minute Order, Mar. 9, 2011. At that conference, he orally extended the stay indefinitely. The parties continued to file motions during the stay. State filed a second motion for reconsideration, again arguing that Congress mandated the MLAAP and that it was error to subject it to the standards applicable to voluntary affirmative action plans. Def.’s Second Mot. Reconsideration, Apr. 5, 2011, ECF No. 93. Shea then filed a motion to apply judicial estoppel to bar State from submitting an opposition to Shea’s still-pending motion for summary judgment. Pl.’s Mot. to Apply Judicial Estoppel, Nov. 7, 2011, ECF No. 106. On October 11, 2011, the case was reassigned by consent to its fourth (and, perhaps, final) judge, Chief Judge Royce C. Lamberth. See Reassignment of Civil Case, ECF No. 105. Chief Judge Lamberth denied both parties’ motions for reconsideration and Shea’s motion for application of judicial estoppel, and lifted the stay on July 30, 2012. See Shea v. Clinton, 850 F. Supp. 2d 153 (D.D.C. 2012); Shea v. Clinton, 880 F. Supp. 2d 113 (D.D.C. 2012). The Court set a schedule for briefing on Shea’s still pending summary judgment motion and any cross-motion offered by State. See Mem. & Order 9, July 30, 2012, ECF No. 118. On August 17, 2012, State filed a second Motion for Summary Judgment. ECF No. 120. This led to several more rounds of procedural motions and requests for Appendix D–12 extensions. See ECF Nos. 122, 125, 129, 132. After the Court settled these issues (see ECF Nos. 137-39; Shea v. Clinton, 288 F.R.D. 1 (D.D.C. 2012)), the parties’ motions for summary judgment were finally ripe for consideration on December 22, 2012. With discovery closed and a full briefing on the merits presented, the Court can finally consider the substantive merits of Shea’s claim. II. LEGAL STANDARDS A. Summary Judgment “The court shall grant summary judgment if the movant shows that there is no genuine dispute as to any material fact and the movant is entitled to judgment as a matter of law.” Fed. R. Civ. P. 56(a); see also Anderson v. Liberty Lobby, Inc., 477 U.S. 242, 247, 106 S. Ct. 2505, 91 L.Ed.2d 202 (1986). The mere existence of any factual dispute will not defeat summary judgment; “the requirement is that there be no genuine issue of material fact.” Anderson, 477 U.S. at 247-48, 106 S. Ct. 2505 (emphasis in original). A fact is material if, under the applicable law, it could affect the outcome of the case. Id. A dispute is genuine if the “evidence is such that a reasonable jury could return a verdict for the nonmoving party.” Id. Because “[c]redibility determinations, the weighing of the evidence, and the drawing of legitimate inferences from the facts are jury functions, not those of a judge,” the “evidence of the non-movant is to be believed, and all justifiable inferences are to be drawn in his favor.” Id. at 255, 106 S. Ct. 2505. A nonmoving party, however, must establish more than “the existence of a scintilla of evidence” in support of its position. Id. at 252, 106 S. Ct. 2505. The inferences drawn from the evidence “must be reasonably probable and based on more than Appendix D–13 mere speculation.” Rogers Corp. v. E.P.A., 275 F.3d 1096, 1103 (D.C. Cir. 2002) (citations omitted). The nonmoving party may not rely solely on allegations or conclusory statements. See Greene v. Dalton, 164 F.3d 671, 675 (D.C. Cir. 1999). The nonmoving party must present specific facts that would enable a reasonable jury to find in its favor. Id. If the evidence presented is “merely colorable, or is not significantly probative, summary judgment may be granted.” Anderson, 477 U.S. at 249-50, 106 S. Ct. 2505. In Celotex Corp. v. Catrett, 477 U.S. 317, 322, 106 S. Ct. 2548, 91 L.Ed.2d 265 (1986), the Supreme Court held that, after “adequate time for discovery and upon motion,” a court must enter summary judgment “against a party who fails to make a showing sufficient to establish the existence of an element essential to that party’s case, and on which that party will bear the burden of proof at trial.” Elaborating: In such a situation, there can be “no genuine issue as to any material fact,” since a complete failure of proof concerning an essential element of the nonmoving party’s case necessarily renders all other facts immaterial. The moving party is “entitled to a judgment as a matter of law” because the nonmoving party has failed to make a sufficient showing on an essential element of her case with respect to which she has the burden of proof. 477 U.S. at 322-23, 106 S. Ct. 2548 (quoting Fed. R. Civ. P. 56(c)). The Supreme Court meant “to disapprove a line of cases allowing a party opposing summary judgment to resist a properly made motion Appendix D–14 by reference only to its pleadings,” id. at 325, 106 S. Ct. 2548: In cases . . . where the nonmoving party will bear the burden of proof at trial on a dispositive issue, a summary judgment motion may properly be made in reliance solely on the “pleadings, depositions, answers to interrogatories, and admissions on file.” Such a motion, whether or not accompanied by affidavits, will be “made and supported as provided in this rule,” and Rule 56(e) therefore requires the nonmoving party to go beyond the pleadings and by her own affidavits, or by the “depositions, answers to interrogatories, and admissions on file,” designate “specific facts showing that there is a genuine issue for trial.” Id. at 324, 106 S. Ct. 2548 (quoting Fed. R. Civ. P. 56). Rule 56 allows a party seeking or opposing summary judgment to “object that the material cited to support or dispute a fact cannot be presented in a form that would be admissible in evidence.” Fed. R. Civ. P. 56(c)(2). While at summary judgment the nonmovant “is not required to produce evidence in a form that would be admissible at trial,” the evidence must be “capable of being converted into admissible evidence.” Catrett v. Johns-Manville Sales Corp., 826 F.2d 33, 38 (D.C. Cir. 1987). “Because the objective of summary judgment is to prevent unnecessary trials, and because ‘[v]erdicts cannot rest on inadmissible evidence,’ it follows that the evidence considered at summary judgment must be capable ‘of being converted into admissible evidence.’” Akers v. Liberty Mut. Group, 744 F. Supp. 2d 92, 96 (D.D.C. 2010) (quoting Greer v. Appendix D–15 Paulson, 505 F.3d 1306, 1315 (D.C. Cir. 2007)). At summary judgment the Court cannot rely on “mere allegations or denials.” Anderson, 477 U.S. at 256, 106 S. Ct. 2505; see also 10A Wright, Miller & Kane, Federal Practice & Procedure § 2727 (3d ed. 2012) (“A judge may not resolve a summary-judgment motion by ‘assumptions’ about matters that have not been properly presented in the manner prescribed by the rule[.]”). [1] [2] The filing of a cross-motion for summary judgment does not “concede the factual allegations of the opposing motion.” CEI Washington Bureau, Inc. v. Dep’t of Justice, 469 F.3d 126, 129 (D.C. Cir. 2006). Cross-motions for summary judgment are treated separately. See McKenzie v. Sawyer, 684 F.2d 62, 68 n.3 (D.C. Cir. 1982) (“The rule governing cross motions for summary judgment . . . is that neither party waives the right to a full trial on the merits by filing its own motion; each side concedes that no material facts are at issue only for the purposes of its own motion.”). The court may—despite the parties’ stipulations that there are no disputed facts—find material facts are in dispute, deny both motions, and proceed to trial. Sherwood v. Washington Post, 871 F.2d 1144, 1147 n.4 (D.C. Cir. 1989). B. Affirmative Action Plans Under Title VII Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, as amended, prohibits employment discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. 42 U.S.C. §§ 2000e-2, 2000e-3. Title VII protects all Americans, including white men, from race-based employment discrimination. McDonald v. Santa Fe Trail Transp. Co., 427 U.S. 273, 280, 96 S. Ct. 2574, 49 L.Ed.2d 493 (1976). Nevertheless, the Supreme Court has Appendix D–16 repeatedly interpreted Title VII to allow “race-conscious efforts to abolish traditional patterns of racial segregation and hierarchy.” Weber, 443 U.S. at 204, 99 S. Ct. 2721; see also Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626, 107 S. Ct. 1442. The Supreme Court has approved of affirmative action plans “designed to ‘eliminate manifest imbalances in traditionally segregated job categories.’” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 628, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (quoting Weber, 443 U.S. at 197, 99 S. Ct. 2721). [3] [4] [5] “The standard for determining whether affirmative relief is justified under Title VII is less stringent than under the Constitution.” Stewart v. Rubin, 948 F. Supp. 1077, 1093 (D.D.C. 1996) (Lamberth, J.) aff’d, 124 F.3d 1309 (D.C. Cir. 1997). See also Johnson, 480 U.S. at 627 n.6, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“The fact that a public employer must also satisfy the Constitution does not negate the fact that the statutory prohibition with which that employer must contend was not intended to extend as far as that of the Constitution.”); cf. Wygant v. Jackson Bd. of Educ., 476 U.S. 267, 273, 106 S. Ct. 1842, 90 L.Ed.2d 260 (1986) (applying strict scrutiny to constitutional challenge of affirmative action plan). Courts analyze Title VII challenges to affirmative action plans under the analytical framework set forth in McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792, 93 S. Ct. 1817, 36 L.Ed.2d 668 (1973). As the Supreme Court stated: Once a plaintiff establishes a prima facie case that race or sex has been taken into account in an employer’s employment decision, the burden shifts to the employer to articulate a nondiscriminatory rationale for its decision. The existence of an affirmative action plan Appendix D–17 provides such a rationale. If such a plan is articulated as the basis for the employer’s decision, the burden shifts to the plaintiff to prove that the employer’s justification is pretextual and the plan is invalid. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 627, 107 S. Ct. 1442. The plaintiff bears the ultimate burden of establishing the invalidity of the affirmative action plan. Id. Reliance on an affirmative action plan is not an “affirmative defense requiring the employer to carry the burden of proving the validity of the plan. The burden of proving its invalidity remains on the plaintiff.” Id. [6] [7] In analyzing affirmative action plans under Title VII, courts consider: (1) whether the plan was justified by a “manifest imbalance” reflecting an underrepresentation of minorities or women in “traditionally segregated job categories”; and (2) whether the plan was properly tailored to cure the disparity without unnecessarily trammeling the interests of non-minorities. Weber, 443 U.S. at 208, 99 S. Ct. 2721. Statistically significant disparities between the percentage of minorities employed and the percentage of qualified minorities in the labor market can be strong evidence of a manifest imbalance. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 633, 107 S. Ct. 1442; Palmer v. Shultz, 815 F.2d 84, 91 (D.C. Cir. 1987). Writing for the Court in Johnson, Justice Brennan stated that a “manifest imbalance need not be such that it would support a prima facie case against the employer.” 480 U.S. at 632, 107 S. Ct. 1442; see also id. at 633 n.11, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“However, as long as there is a manifest imbalance, an employer may adopt a plan even where the disparity is not so striking, without being required to introduce the nonstatistical evidence Appendix D–18 of past discrimination that would be demanded by the ‘prima facie’ standard.”); Stewart, 948 F. Supp. at 1094 (“Nor is a finding or admission of prior discrimination required in a Title VII case. Indeed, to adopt affirmative measures to resolve Title VII employment discrimination claims, the employer need not admit to any prior discrimination, nor point ‘to evidence of an ‘arguable violation’ on its part.’” (quoting Johnson, 480 U.S. at 630, 107 S. Ct. 1442)). Shortly after Johnson, Judge Kenneth Starr of the D.C. Circuit read Johnson as not eviscerating the existing “predicate of discrimination” requirement—an employer may only use affirmative action as a remedy for prior discrimination. Hammon, 826 F.2d at 74-75. Statistics showing an “egregious underrepresent[ation]” of minorities may give rise to an “inference of discrimination” by the employer. Id. at 75. Finding that the Johnson majority agreed with Justice O’Connor’s statement that affirmative action is permissible under Weber “only as a remedial device to eliminate actual or apparent discrimination or the lingering effects of this discrimination,” Johnson, 480 U.S. at 649, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (O’Connor, J., concurring), Judge Starr held that “although an employer need not admit or prove that it had acted discriminatorily, evidence of the effects of its past or current discrimination is a prerequisite to lawful race-conscious employment decisions,” 826 F.2d at 75 n.1. [8] In determining whether the affirmative action plan unnecessarily trammels the interests of non-minorities, courts focus on the nature of the plan—including whether the plan is temporary, whether it was intended to attain or maintain a racial balance, Appendix D–19 whether it imposes quotas, whether it requires the discharge of white employees, and whether it is over-inclusive. See, e.g., Weber, 443 U.S. at 208, 99 S. Ct. 2721; Johnson, 480 U.S. at 636-40, 107 S. Ct. 1442; United States v. Paradise, 480 U.S. 149, 182, 107 S. Ct. 1053, 94 L.Ed.2d 203 (1987); Stewart, 948 F. Supp. at 1095-96. III. DISCUSSION This case is eleven years old and on its fourth judge. The district court twice entered final judgment. Order, Sept. 30, 2003, ECF No. 15; Order, Nov. 21, 2008, ECF No. 64. The court of appeals twice reversed the district court and remanded for further Court should clarify a few preliminary matters. The Court will use the McDonnell Douglas/Johnson framework—described supra Part II.B.—to analyze plaintiff’s Title VII claims. This case only concerns Shea’s Title VII claims. Shea voluntarily withdrew a number of his claims in response to State’s first Motion to Dismiss. See Pl.’s Opp’n to Def.’s Mot. to Dismiss 12, Feb. 10, 2003, ECF No. 12. Shea abandoned other constitutional claims when he elected not to appeal their dismissal. See Shea, 409 F.3d at 450-51 (noting that Shea only appealed the district court’s dismissal of his pay grade discrimination claim). To the extent Shea has any remaining constitutional claims, they would be time-barred under the three-year statute of limitations applicable to equal protection claims.3 Therefore, the Title VII standard articulated by the Supreme Court in Johnson v. Transportation Agency, 480 U.S. 616, 107 S. Ct. 1442, 94 L.Ed.2d 615 (1987) applies—rather than the constitutional standard articulated by the Supreme Court in Wygant v. Jackson Board of Education, 476 U.S. 267, 106 S. Ct. 1842, 90 Appendix D–20 L.Ed.2d 260 (1986). Over Justice Scalia’s vigorous dissent, 480 U.S. at 657-77, 107 S. Ct. 1442, Justice Brennan’s majority opinion in Johnson made clear that the statutory test differs from the constitutional test, 480 U.S. at 627 n.6, 107 S. Ct. 1442. 3 Shea’s equal protection claims would be “subject to the District’s three-year residual limitation period.” Munoz v. Bd. of Trustees of Univ. of Dist. of Columbia, 590 F. Supp. 2d 21, 28 (D.D.C. 2008) aff’d, 427 Fed. Appx. 1 (D.C. Cir. 2011). “To establish an equal protection claim, plaintiff must show that she was singled out from among others similarly situated on the basis of race and/or national origin.” Id. The plaintiff cannot rely on the “ongoing negative consequences” of the prior discrimination to extend the statute of limitations for his equal protection claim. Id. The Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, 123 Stat. 5 (2009), does not address constitutional or 42 U.S.C. § 1983 claims. The Ledbetter Act did explicitly mention that it applies to claims under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Age Discrimination Act of 1967, the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990, and the Rehabilitation Act of 1973. Id. It would be very odd for the Ledbetter Act to specify, with great detail, the types of claims to which it applies and then, sub silentio, change the statute of limitations for claims under the equal protection clause or § 1983. See, e.g., Antonin Scalia & Brian A. Garner, Reading Law: the Interpretation of Legal Texts 93100 (2012) (explaining semantic canon that “[n]othing is to be added to what the text states or reasonably implies (casus omissus pro omisso habendus est ). That is, a matter not covered is to Appendix D–21 be treated as not covered.”); id. at 107-111 (explaining the “negative-implication canon” which suggests that “[t]he expression of one thing implies the exclusion of others (expressio unius est exclusio alterius).”). Furthermore, courts typically look to state law to determine the statute of limitations for constitutional claims. See Carney v. Am. Univ., 151 F.3d 1090, 1096 (D.C. Cir. 1998) (D.C. Code § 12-301(8) provides statute of limitations for § 1983 claims); Banks v. Chesapeake & Potomac Tel. Co., 802 F.2d 1416, 1429 (D.C. Cir. 1986) (§ 12-301(8) provides statute of limitations for most Bivens actions). Johnson and its progeny describe the Title VII standard under which courts analyze voluntary affirmative action programs. State repeatedly argued that the MLAAP is not a “voluntary” plan—that the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, 22 U.S.C. § 3922a, mandated the creation of an affirmative action plan. See, e.g., Def.’s Mem. ISO its First Mot. Reconsideration 4-6; Def.’s Mem. ISO its Second Mot. Reconsideration. This Court has rejected these arguments, finding that while the FRAA “clearly requires State to implement a plan to address mid-level positions, it is silent on to the means by which State is to accomplish this goal.” Shea v. Clinton, 850 F. Supp. 2d 153, 159 (D.D.C. 2012). The Court concluded, while also rejecting State’s argument for legislative immunity, that “[t]he FRAA clearly does not mandate an exception to Title VII and does not mandate creation of the MLAAP specifically.” Id. at 162. As this Court has found previously, see id. at 158-62, it reiterates that MLAAP is a voluntary Appendix D–22 affirmative action plan subject to Johnson and its progeny. This case is not a “mixed motive” or “direct evidence” case. Shea’s reliance on Price Waterhouse v. Hopkins, 490 U.S. 228, 109 S. Ct. 1775, 104 L.Ed.2d 268 (1989) is misplaced. See Pl.’s Opp’n to Def.’s Mot. Summ. J. & Reply ISO Mot. Summ. J. 39 (“Pl’s Opp’n & Reply”), Aug. 30, 2012, ECF No. 123. In Price Waterhouse, the Supreme Court set the standard for “mixed motive” Title VII cases: Once a plaintiff shows an employer acted with an impermissible motive, the burden of proof shifts to the employer to prove that it would have made the same decision even in the absence of the impermissible motive. 490 U.S. at 242, 109 S. Ct. 1775. In 1991, Congress amended Title VII; section 107 of the 1991 Act codified Price Waterhouse “to the extent that it shifts the burden of persuasion to the defendant to prove a nondiscriminatory motive was at work.” 2 Barbara T. Lindemann, Paul Grossman & C. Geoffrey Weirich, Employment Discrimination Law 2544 (4th ed. 2007). However, this is not a “mixed motive” case, and courts typically do not treat “reverse discrimination” cases as falling under the burden-shifting framework of Price Waterhouse and § 107. See id. at 2544-46. Courts in this Circuit have long held that the mere existence of an affirmative action plan does not provide “direct evidence” of discrimination. See, e.g., Parker v. Baltimore & Ohio R.R., 652 F.2d 1012, 1017 n.9 (D.C. Cir. 1981). “In the absence of direct evidence of discrimination,”—of which there is none in this case—“disparate-treatment claims under Title VII are analyzed under the burden-shifting framework set forth in McDonnell Douglas[.]” Teneyck v. Omni Shoreham Hotel, 365 F.3d 1139, 1149 (D.C. Cir. 2004). Appendix D–23 Shea may only challenge State’s revised FY 1990-92 Multi-Year Affirmative Action Plan. When the Court refers to the “MLAAP” generally, it refers to the 199092 plan in effect at the time of Shea’s hiring. At times, Shea presents arguments based on deficiencies in State’s earlier 1987 Multi-Year Affirmative Action Plan. See generally Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply. This plan was not in effect when Shea applied to State. Shea cannot directly challenge the 1987 MLAAP, and the details of its alleged shortcomings are of limited probative value. On the other hand, the findings of underrepresentation and prior discrimination underpinning the 1987 MLAAP may be relevant to justifying the later plan. The 1990-92 plan was a continuation and refinement of an existing plan. State did not need to justify the revised plan out of whole cloth; it may rely in part on its earlier findings of discrimination and underrepresentation if it found that significant underrepresentation persisted, and race conscious policies continued to be necessary. When considering the numbers, the Court focuses on the mid- and senior-levels of career Foreign Service generalist officers. At the time, the Department of State had two personnel systems—one covering the “Foreign Service,” and one covering the “Civil Service system.” See Ex. 2 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 26 (Shea—00090). The “Civil Service system” covered the gamut of employees responsible for the general administration of the State Department, including clerical, technical, and legal staff. Within the Foreign Service, there are Foreign Service Officers (or “Generalists”) and Foreign Service Specialists. Foreign Service Officers have “general responsibility for carrying out and conducting the United States’ foreign relations throughout the world.” Id. Within this corps, Appendix D–24 State assigned its officers to one of four “cones”—Administrative, Consular, Economic, and Political. Foreign Service Specialists, on the other hand, are “professional specialists in communications, security, medicine, office support skills, and other fields.” Id. State is responsible for meeting EEO goals for both the Civil and Foreign Service, and for both Foreign Service Generalists and Specialists. Many of the reports submitted by State also discuss underrepresentation in the Civil Service and Foreign Service Specialist ranks. See, e.g., Ex. 2 to Def.’s CrossMot. (State FY 1990-92 Multi-Year Affirmative Action Plan); Ex. 3 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (GAO report on underrepresentation in Foreign Service). Shea applied for, and received, a position as an entry-level Foreign Service Officer. See Ex. 12 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (Agreement to Join the Foreign Service, April 22, 1992); Ex. 13 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (employment form SF 50-B). Therefore, the rates of underrepresentation of career Foreign Service generalist officers are relevant to this case. Underrepresentation in the mid- and senior-levels is relevant because Congress specifically expressed dissatisfaction of the minority representation at both levels, and directed State to take action to correct for these specific imbalances. See 1986-87 FRAA, Pub. L. 100-204, Title I, § 183(b); 1988-89 FRAA, Pub. L. 100204, Title I, § 183(b). With the correct standard and object of inquiry settled, the Court reiterates that in order for Shea to prevail, he must prove “(1) that the MLAAP was unlawful, (2) that except for his race, Shea was qualified for the program, and (3) that Shea was damaged during the period in question by the continuing effects of the Appendix D–25 MLAAP.” Shea, 850 F. Supp. 2d at 163. At trial, Shea would have the burden of proving the unlawfulness of the MLAPP. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 627, 107 S. Ct. 1442. He cannot do meet this burden with admissible evidence, and thus has “fail[ed] to make a showing sufficient to establish an element essential” to his case. Celotex, 477 U.S. at 322, 106 S. Ct. 2548. A. Shea’s Prima facie Case of Discrimination Typically, when an “employer has asserted a legitimate, non-discriminatory reason” for taking an adverse action against the plaintiff, “the district court need not—and should not—decide whether the plaintiff actually made out a prima facie case under McDonnell Douglas.” Brady v. Office of Sergeant of Arms, 520 F.3d 490, 494 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (emphasis in original). In many instances, determining whether the plaintiff has made out a prima facie claim is “a largely unnecessary sideshow,” id.—especially considering that in a “typical Title VII suit,” the plaintiff only needs to “establish that (1) he is a member of a protected class; (2) he suffered an adverse employment action; and (3) the adverse action gives rise to an inference of discrimination [.]” Checka v. Rite Aid of Washington, D.C., Inc., 538 F. Supp. 2d 82, 86 (D.D.C. 2008) (citing George v. Leavitt, 407 F.3d 405, 412 (D.C. Cir. 2005)). [9] [10] However, “[w]hen the plaintiff is a white male and alleges reverse discrimination . . . the requirement for establishing a prima facie case changes.” Checka, 538 F. Supp. 2d at 86 (citing Harding v. Gray, 9 F.3d 150, 153 (D.C. Cir. 1993)). Instead of showing that he is a member of a minority group, the plaintiff must show “‘background circumstances [that] support the suspicion that the defendant is the unusual employer who discriminates against the majority.’” Harding, 9 Appendix D–26 F.3d at 153 (quoting Parker, 652 F.2d at 1017). This requirement is “not designed to disadvantage the white plaintiff,” but “merely substitutes for the minority plaintiff’s burden to show that he is a member of a racial minority; both are criteria for determining when the employer’s conduct raises an ‘inference of discrimination.’” Id. at 153. [11] A white male plaintiff may show background circumstances in one of two ways. First, he “may produce evidence that his employer has reason or inclination to discriminate against the majority.” Checka, 538 F. Supp. 2d at 87 (citing Mastro v. Potomac Elec. Power Co., 447 F.3d 843, 851 (D.C. Cir. 2006)). He may do so by presenting evidence of “political pressure to promote a particular minority because of his race, pressure to promote minorities in general, and proposed affirmative action plans.” Mastro, 447 F.3d at 851. Second, the plaintiff may offer evidence that there is “‘something ‘fishy’ about the facts of the case at hand that raises an inference of discrimination.’” Id. (quoting Harding, 9 F.3d at 153). “Evidence that a white plaintiff was given little or no consideration for a position that was given to a minority candidate or that a minority candidate was promoted over four objectively qualified white candidates has been sufficient to show ‘something ‘fishy[.]’” Checka, 538 F. Supp. 2d at 87. At least one district court in this jurisdiction has held that the mere “existence of an affirmative action policy,” does not “automatically impl[y] discrimination against the majority” for the purposes of establishing a prima facie case. Schmidt v. Chao, Civ. No. 04-892, 2006 WL 1663389, at *3 (D.D.C. June 13, 2006). “Rather, there must be a causal connection between Appendix D–27 the two, demonstrated by direct or circumstantial evidence.” Id. As an example of such a “causal connection,” the Schmidt Court cites Bishopp v. District of Columbia, 788 F.2d 781, 786 (D.C. Cir. 1986), where “the connection between the existence of an affirmative action plan and reverse discrimination was made when the D.C. Fire Department promoted an African-American candidate, with obviously-inferior credentials, over four (4) Caucasian candidates who were better qualified.” Schmidt, 2006 WL 1663389, at *3. [12] To show the necessary connection, Shea may offer some evidence creating an issue of material fact as to his qualifications for a mid-level position. In denying both parties’ motions for summary judgment, the Court found that “State has admitted [Shea’s] qualifications by failing to respond to proper requests for admissions.” Mem. Order 9, Aug. 11, 2009, ECF No. 69 (emphasis in original). Thereafter, State requested leave to amend its discovery responses. Def.’s Mot. Am./Correct, Jan. 7, 2010, ECF No. 75. Over Shea’s objection, this Court held: [I]t appears (a) that defendant’s asserted “admission” that plaintiff would have been qualified for MLAAP occurs only by operation of the government’s failure to respond to a request for admissions; and (b) that the failure to respond was justifiable, given the stops and starts that have occurred in this litigation. It also appears, however, (c) that injecting the rhetorical question of the plaintiff’s qualifications for MLAAP at this late stage of this long-running case would not “promote the presentation of the merits of the Appendix D–28 action,” and (d) that it would prejudice the plaintiff in maintaining or defending the action on the merits. It is accordingly ORDERED that defendant’s motion is granted, but that, unless the government is prepared to demonstrate that any non-minority person applied for and was denied acceptance to MLAAP because of his or her qualifications, the plaintiff will be deemed to have been qualified for MLAAP—except for his race (or national origin, or ethnicity). Order 1-2, Feb. 2, 2010, ECF No. 78 (emphasis in original). In response, State identified two minority applicants who had applied for and were denied acceptance to MLAAP because of their qualifications. See Decl. of Alina Eldred ¶¶ 4-11, Sept. 17, 2012, ECF No. 128-2. This misread the Court’s Order. The Court required State to offer proof that non-minority applicants were denied acceptance to MLAAP because of their qualifications; it said nothing about the status of minority applicants. Since State’s submission was not responsive to this Court’s Order, the Court deems Shea to have been qualified for MLAAP, except for his race. State’s admission that Shea would have been qualified but for his race establishes the necessary causal connection between the MLAAP and discrimination against the majority. The burden of establishing “background circumstances” is “minimal,” and not intended to be “an additional hurdle for white plaintiffs.” Harding, 9 F.3d at 153-54. Therefore, this Court finds that Shea has demonstrated “background circumstances that support the suspicion that the Appendix D–29 defendant is the unusual employer that discriminates against the majority,” id. at 153, and thus has sufficiently stated his prima facie case. B. State’s Reliance on its Affirmative Action Program Shea has established a prima facie case of employment discrimination under Title VII. Therefore, State has the burden of producing “admissible evidence that, if believed, would establish that the employer’s action was motivated by a legitimate, nondiscriminatory reason.” Teneyck, 365 F.3d at 1151. Under Johnson, the “existence of an affirmative action plan provides such a rationale.” 480 U.S. at 627, 107 S. Ct. 1442. “As a practical matter . . . an employer will generally seek to avoid a charge of pretext by presenting evidence in support of its plan. That does not mean . . . that reliance on an affirmative action plan is . . . an affirmative defense requiring the employer to carry the burden of proving the validity of the plan. The burden of proving its invalidity remains on the plaintiff.” Id. at 626-27, 107 S. Ct. 1442. The “employer’s burden is one of production, not persuasion.” Teneyck, 365 F.3d at 1151. “By producing evidence (whether ultimately persuasive or not) of nondiscriminatory reasons,” the employer will have “sustained [its] burden of production.” St. Mary’s Honor Ctr. v. Hicks, 509 U.S. 502, 509, 113 S. Ct. 2742, 125 L.Ed.2d 407 (1993) (emphasis in original). Courts should not make credibility assessments regarding the employer’s evidence; an employer meets its burden if it “introduce[s] evidence which, taken as true, would permit the conclusion that there was a nondiscriminatory reason for the adverse action.” Id. (emphasis in original). “The employer ‘need not Appendix D–30 persuade the court that it was actually motivated by the proffered reasons. It is sufficient if the defendant’s evidence raises a genuine issue of fact as to whether it discriminated against the plaintiff.’” Antrum v. Washington Metro. Area Transit Auth., 710 F. Supp. 2d 112, 118-19 (D.D.C. 2010) (quoting Tex. Dep’t of Cmty. Affairs v. Burdine, 450 U.S. 248, 254-55, 101 S. Ct. 1089, 67 L.Ed.2d 207 (1981)). The question then is whether State has offered evidence which, taken as true, permits the conclusion that State acted pursuant to a lawful affirmative action plan. To the extent this Court discusses evidence that goes beyond merely satisfying State’s burden of production, this does not suggest that State has—at any time—the burden of persuasion. State’s evidence concerning the lawfulness of its plan, however, can make it harder for Shea to prove that State’s asserted nondiscriminatory reasons are merely pretext and that State employed an unlawful affirmative action plan. See, e.g., Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626-27, 107 S. Ct. 1442. 1. Manifest Imbalance and Discrimination in the Workforce There must be a manifest imbalance in the workforce, reflecting discrimination in traditionally segregated job categories, justifying State’s adoption of an affirmative action plan. Weber, 443 U.S. at 208, 99 S. Ct. 2721. As explained by Weber and Johnson, statistically significant disparities between minorities in the workplace and qualified minorities in the labor market may establish a manifest imbalance. For “skilled” positions the relevant comparator group is the number of minorities with the requisite qualifications. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 632-33, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“[I]n determining whether an imbalance exists that would justify taking Appendix D–31 sex or race into account, a comparison of the percentage of minorities or women in the employer’s work force with the percentage in the area labor market or general population is appropriate in analyzing jobs that require no special expertise . . . . Where a job requires special training, however, the comparison should be with those in the labor force who possess the relevant qualifications.”).4 4 While Congress directed State to increase its minority recruitment efforts “so that the Foreign Service becomes truly representation of the American people,” 1988-89 FRAA, Pub. L. 100204, Title I, § 183(b), there is no indication that State ever used the “American people” as its comparator when calculating minority underrepresentation. Cf. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 654, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (although stated long-term goal of affirmative action plan was to reach employment levels that “approximat[ed] the distribution of women . . . in the Santa Clara County workforce,” this “long-range goal was never used as a guide for actual hiring decisions” and “was merely a statement of aspiration wholly without operational significance”). State based its short-term goals on the number of qualified minorities in the workforce, not the number in the total labor market or general population. See generally infra; Exs. 2 & 3 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. Since affirmative action plans are justified by their “remedial” purpose, State must offer some evidence of a “predicate of discrimination.” See Hammon, 826 F.2d at 80-81. Stark statistical disparities might, by themselves, infer past discrimination by the employer. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 636, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (manifest Appendix D–32 imbalance shown when none of the 238 skilled positions were occupied by a women). If the statistical comparisons merely reflect general societal discrimination—for which the employer was not responsible—the numbers alone might not justify remedial action. See Hammon, 826 F.2d at 80-81. State is not required to “admit” to past discrimination. Johnson, 480 U.S. 616, 650, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (O’Connor, J., concurring) (“Although the employer need not point to any contemporaneous findings of actual discrimination, . . . the employer must point to evidence sufficient to establish a firm basis for believing that remedial action is required[.]”). Nevertheless, there must be “evidence of at least the effects of the employer’s past or current discrimination.” 2 Lindemann, Grossman & Weirich, Employment Discrimination Law at 2526 (citing Hammon, 826 F.2d at 74-75 & n.1). Some combination of statistical imbalance and evidence of the employer’s past or current discrimination can provide the necessary factual predicate to justify a remedial affirmative action plan. See, e.g., id. at 2525; Johnson, 480 U.S. at 632, 107 S. Ct. 1442; Hammon, 826 F.2d at 74-75, 80-81. a. Statistical imbalance and minority underrepresentation [13] The defendant offers sufficient evidence to show t ha t a fi ndi ng o f si g ni fi ca nt minority underrepresentation motivated the State Department’s adoption of its affirmative action plan. As discussed in Part I.A. supra, the chronic underrepresentation of minorities in the State Department—and the mid-and senior-levels of the Foreign Service in particular—had long been an issue. Congress demanded greater Appendix D–33 minority representation at State, and closely monitored State’s efforts to set and meet diversity goals. See 1986-87 FRAA, Pub. L. 99-93; 1988-89 FRAA, Pub. L. 100-204. Congress held hearings where representatives discussed minority underrepresentation in the Foreign Service, explored the nature and extent of the problem, and asked State what it was doing to fix the problem. See Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service—State Department: Hearing Before the Subcomm. on the Civil Service of the H. Comm. on Post Office and Civil Service, 101st Cong. (1989) (Ex. 4 to Def.’s Cross-Mot.); The Department of State in the 21st Century: Joint Hearing Before the Subcomm. on Int’l Operations of the H. Comm. on Foreign Affairs & the Subcomm. on the Civil Service of the H. Comm. on Post Office and Civil Service, 101st Cong. (1989) (Ex. 5 to Def.’s Cross-Mot.). In the late 1980s—directly preceding the drafting and adoption of the 1990-92 MLAAP—two reports studied the Foreign Service personnel and management systems. Thomas Commission Report; Bremer Study Group Report.5 Congress mandated the “Thomas Report” in the 1988-89 FRAA; the Secretary of State himself commissioned the “Bremer Report.” See The Department of State in the 21st Century (prepared statement of Rep. Gerry Sikorski, Chairman, Subcomm. on Civil Service). As interpreted by Rep. Gerry Sikorski, the Chairman of the Civil Service Subcommittee, these reports “tell [Congress] that management of the U.S. Foreign Service is seriously flawed.” Id. The reports “show that officer training has particularly suffered,” and address in particular the “issues of recruitment, career development and training, the underrepresentation of women and minorities, [and] the lack of management skills[.]” Id. Appendix D–34 5 Both reports were entered into the record during The Department of State in the 21st Century: Joint Hearing Before the Subcomm. on Int’l Operations of the H. Comm. on Foreign Affairs & the Subcomm. on the Civil Service of the H. Comm. on Post Office and Civil Service, 101st Cong. (1989) (Ex. 5 to Def.’s Cross-Mot.). In June 1989, the General Accounting Office (“GAO”) issued a report titled, “State Department: Minorities and Women Are Underrepresented in the Foreign Service.” See Ex. 3 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. This report found that while existing affirmative action programs had made some progress, minorities remained underrepresented: The State Department increased minority representation in the Foreign Service from 7 percent in 1981 to 11 percent in 1987 . . . . In 1987 minorities and white women were still substantially underrepresented when compared to civilian labor force data that the EEOC has issued to measure federal agencies. Progress has been mixed in the FS officer and specialist categories. At the entry level, underrepresentation in the FS officer corps has been eliminated, except for AsianAmericans/Pacific Islanders. In the mid-level ranks of the officer corps, minority male representation has increased, but minority and white women have made less progress. In State’s Senior Foreign Service positions, underrepresentation of minorities and white women is still pervasive. Appendix D–35 Id. at 15 (Shea—008689). An accompanying chart shows that, as of September 1987, females of every race were underrepresented as senior and mid-level Foreign Service Officers, minorities of every race were underrepresented as senior Foreign Service Officers, and Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders were underrepresented in the mid-levels. Id. at 20 (Table 2.3: Underrepresentation of Minorities and White Women in State’s Foreign Service by Grade (As of Sept. 1987)) (Shea—008694). Shea seizes on this chart—and State’s unfortunate misinterpretation of it6—as evidence that not all MLAAP—eligible minority groups were underrepresented. See Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 4-6. After all, the chart showed that as of 1987 black and Indian/ Alaskan males were fully represented in the Foreign Service Officer mid-levels. However, this chart neither undermines State’s evidentiary proffer that the MLAAP was lawful, nor proves that the MLAAP was unlawful. First, the GAO report acknowledged the limitations of its numbers—the agency had to compare 1987 State Department employment data with a 1980 comparator population: 6 In a rather serious mistake, State used this chart in its Cross-Motion for Summary Judgment to show that “in 1987 there were no AfricanAmerican, Hispanic, or Indian males in mid-level positions.” Pl.’s Cross-Mot. Summ. J. 12 (emphasis in original). Worse still, State bolded this language, drawing special attention to its mistake. Digging the hole deeper, State was repeating a mistake they had made previously—and had filed an errata to correct. See Def.’s Reply ISO its Second Mot. Reconsideration Appendix D–36 6, May 18, 2011, ECF No. 98 (stating the same incorrect statement verbatim, minus the bolding); Errata to Def.’s Reply ISO its Second Mot. Reconsideration 1, May 25, 2011, ECF No. 100 (admitting that the chart “actually shows a comparison” of workforce and census data “to demonstrate that, under current EEOC criteria, the underrepresentation of minority males in some levels of the Foreign Service was ‘0’”). Perhaps State did not take its pro se opponent seriously. The Court warns State that such sloppy lawyering could have cost State dearly if State had the burden of persuasion, rather than simply the burden of production. If this were a constitutional challenge—and strict scrutiny applied—State may have failed to justify the MLAAP based on the record submitted. The criteria established by the EEOC is based on 1980 census data, but considerable change has occurred in the civilian labor force since 1980. If these changes were considered in analyzing State’s representation, the extent to which minorities and women are underrepresented would be worse than depicted in table 2.3. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that blacks, Hispanics, and white women have increased their representation in the civilian labor force in recent years. Ex. 3 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 21 (Shea—008695). Hammon made clear that a court must use the most recent available data when determining whether there is a manifest imbalance. 826 F.2d at 77-78. When State adopted the 1990-92 MLAAP, it had more recent work force data available. See Ex. 2 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 4747a (Shea—00116-17) (discussed in more detail infra). Second, Shea’s criticism takes a narrow view of the MLAAP. The MLAAP may work to increase minority Appendix D–37 representation not only in the mid-levels, but also in the senior-levels. Table 2.3 shows across-the-board minority underrepresentation in the senior-levels. Ex. 3 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 20 (Shea—008694). Mid-level minority placement may not be necessary for all groups, if the only concern was underrepresentation in the mid-levels. However, mid-level placement helps alleviate the significant underrepresentation of minorities in the senior levels by making more minorities eligible for promotion into the Senior Foreign Service. Viewed this way, Table 2.3 does not undermine State’s evidentiary proffer.7 7 This may be a generous reading of Table 2.3, but that is what is required at this stage. State does not need to convince the Court that its plan was lawful. To meet its burden of production, “[t]he employer ‘need not persuade the court that it was actually motivated by the proffered reasons. It is sufficient if the defendant’s evidence raises a genuine issue of fact as to whether it discriminated against the plaintiff.’ ” Antrum, 710 F. Supp. 2d at 118-19 (quoting Burdine, 450 U.S. at 254-55, 101 S. Ct. 1089). When State formally adopted the revised 1990-92 MLAAP, it made additional findings about manifest imbalance based on more recent work force and labor pool data. The document describing the 1990-92 MLAAP includes several analyses of the State Department workforce, and which job categories had a “manifest imbalance” for which groups. See Ex. 2 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 45-53a (Multi-Year Affirmative Action Plan FY 1990-92) (Shea—00108-33). In making these comparisons, officials compared State employment data from FY 1989 and 1990 with the Appendix D–38 most recent Occupational National Civilian Labor Force Data for Public Administration Administrators and Officials. See id. at 47 (Shea—00116). The analysis of Foreign Service Generalists showed a “manifest imbalance” for “White females, Black males, Black females, Hispanic females, American Indian males, [and] American Indian females.” Ex. 2 to Def.’s CrossMot. 47 (Shea—00116). The document also showed that within the Senior Foreign Service “minority officers were promoted at a lower rate (3.7 percent) than White males (8.8 percent) or White females (9.0 percent).” Id. at 74 (Shea—00153). Minorities were also promoted from the lower-levels to the midlevels—and within the mid-levels—at a lower rate than white men or women. Id. While the data showed that minorities were promoted from class FS-018 to the Senior Foreign Service at a marginally higher rate, id., the plan warned that: 8 FS-01 being the highest “mid-level” Foreign Service Officer class. See Def.’s SMF ¶ 11; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 10 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 11). It is important to note, however, that promotion rates at the senior levels are based on a very small number of eligible minorities and White women. For example, Black females were promoted to the Senior Foreign Service at a 33-percent rate (2 of 6) compared with an 11-percent rate for White males (170 of 1,518). Id. at 75 (Shea—00154). The fact that there were so few minorities even eligible for promotion into the Senior Foreign Service skewed the statistics regarding promotion rates. “Over-inclusiveness” charges can also be levied at the 1990 data. The 1990-92 plan document does not show Appendix D–39 that all minority groups eligible for the MLAAP were in fact underrepresented in the mid-levels. However, this does not necessarily undermine State’s evidentiary proffer. First, as detailed supra, mid-level minority hiring not only immediately cured imbalances in the mid-levels, but created more opportunities for minorities to ascend to the Senior Foreign Service. As the 1990-92 plan noted, very few minorities were eligible for promotion into the Senior Foreign Service. Id. Second, while the MLAAP was “open” to all EEO minority groups, the plan only established representation goals for groups for which it found a “manifest imbalance.” See id. at 54 (for Foreign Service Generalists, establishing goals to increase the representation of white females, black males, black females, Hispanic females, American Indian males, and American Indian females—the same groups the plan identified earlier as being underrepresented) (Shea—00134). Or as the defendant puts it, “the 19901992 MLAAP corrected for the weakness identified by the GAO . . . and specifically identified the manifest imbalance in each specific minority group within which Foreign Service ‘conal system’ (Administrative, Consular, Economic and Political), as compared to the more timely data for a comparator population, and then set goals for only those underrepresented groups.” Def.’s Reply ISO its Cross-Mot. Summ. J. 12 (“Def.’s Reply”), Oct. 3, 2012, ECF No. 133 (citing Ex. 2 to Def.’s Cross-Mot 46-46b, 47-47a, 50-51b, 54, 61-67). b. Showing of a predicate of discrimination The bare numbers only tell one side of the story. State does rely solely on a statistical imbalance in the midand senior-levels. It has also provided evidence regarding past discrimination in the Foreign Service Appendix D–40 and institutional and systemic barriers to minority advancement. State has provided enough evidence to show a “predicate of discrimination” implying the statistical imbalances are due in part to some past discrimination by State, rather than simply reflecting societal discrimination. See Hammon, 826 F.2d at 7475, 80-81. [14] State’s hiring and promotion practices had been the subject of many employment discrimination lawsuits. See Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service (statement of Rep. Sikorski) (detailing history of discrimination suits against State, stating: “This is not a new phenomenon. The department has lost a lot of money in a variety of litigation regarding discrimination.”). State, and the Foreign Service in particular, drew the ire of Congress. The Thomas and Bremer Reports, discussed supra, went beyond calculating rates of minority representation. With a particular emphasis on the Foreign Service, the reports examined which practices contributed to—and exacerbated—minority underrepresentation. The reports identified systemic and procedural barriers to minority hiring and advancement. See Thomas Comm. Report; Bremer Study Group Report; The Department of State in the 21st Century (prepared statement of Rep. Gerry Sikorski). These findings were echoed by officials from the GAO, who concluded that “some of State’s hiring, promotion, and assignment processes have a disproportionate effect on minorities and women.” Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service, (statement of Joseph Kelly, Director, Security & Int’l Affairs Div., GAO). These reports focused on recent issues—not, as in Hammon, issues buried deep in the past. 826 F.2d at 77-78 (employer Appendix D–41 may not rely on findings of discrimination from decades ago, but should justify its plan with evidence of more recent discrimination). Prior to the adoption of the 1990-92 MLAAP, some officials concluded that the Foreign Service was “discriminatory.” For example, Rep. Sikorski, Chairman of the House Civil Service Subcommittee, held a hearing on September 22, 1989, titled, “Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service.” See Ex. 4 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. In his introductory remarks, Rep. Sikorski called the Foreign Service an “old-boys club,” and cited a litany of studies and lawsuits charging the State Department with discrimination. Id. He noted that “[t]he necessity and extent of legal action [against State] raises serious questions about the department’s commitment to creating a workplace free of discrimination.” Id. For example, from 1976 to 1986, over 240 EEO cases were filed against State; and in 1985, 1986, and 1987 the State Department violated a consent decree it voluntarily entered into to settle an earlier discrimination suit. Id. Rep. Sikorski noted that the minorities and women who were hired into the Foreign Service were disproportionally placed into less prestigious jobs, from which advancement to the senior-levels was more difficult. Id. In a later hearing, Rep. Sikorski stated that, in addition to the findings of the Bremer and Thomas Reports, “[i]nvestigations and hearings conducted by the Subcommittee of the Civil Service have also documented serious instances of discriminatory treatment by the Foreign Service of women, minorities, and people with handicaps.” The Department of State in the 21st Century (prepared statement of Rep. Gerry Sikorski) (going on to list Appendix D–42 specific findings of discrimination in the Foreign Service). Several of the witnesses who appeared before the congressional subcommittee—those with first—hand knowledge of the workings of State—testified about discrimination in the Foreign Service. See, e.g., Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service (prepared testimony of Mary Lee Garrison, Co-President, State Dep’t Chapter, Women’s Action Org.) (“Instances of blatant sexism and discrimination have declined, although some still take place, but a simple glance at the statistics contained in the recent GAO report . . . will confirm the continued existence of a problem.”); Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service (prepared statement of Clarence E. Hodges, Member, Management Council of the Dep’t of State) (Calling some of State’s positions on its equal opportunity promotion “indefensible,” citing “too little progress and unacceptable behavior in this regard.” All around the world, Mr. Hodges “encountered complaints of discrimination from our employees and criticisms from foreigners for that same discrimination as exhibited by our predominately white male diplomatic corps.”); Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service (prepared testimony of Charles Hughes Jr., Vice President for the State Dep’t Thursday Luncheon Group) (“I entered on duty in State in late 1965 and had my first experience with discrimination, aside from what I had experienced while stationed in the South . . . . [W]hile there are some very good, progressive minded people at State, there are also those who find it much easier to deny fair treatment to some, and thus keep faith with their peers.” * * * “Minorities have been underrepresented purposely, Appendix D–43 and the rationale of improperly applied statistics, have provided the relief for the consciences of the establishment.”). When the Court looks at the whole picture—statistical findings of minority underrepresentation and lower promotion rates, history of discrimination lawsuits, reports finding systemic flaws at State, repeated congressional oversight and criticism, testimony from knowledgeable witnesses that the Foreign Service was discriminatory—it finds that State has met its evidentiary proffer of showing a proper factual predicate for its affirmative action plan. It has provided enough evidence for a reasonable jury to conclude that the MLAAP was justified by correcting a manifest imbalance in the mid- and senior-levels of the Foreign Service, and it served to remedy the lingering effects of State’s past discrimination. 2. Avoiding Unnecessarily Trammeling the Interests of Non-Minorities Even if there is a manifest imbalance in the workplace, State must still design and implement its affirmative action plan in a way that does not unnecessarily trammel the interests of non-minorities or create an absolute bar to the advancement of nonminorities. Weber, 443 U.S. at 208, 99 S. Ct. 2721; Hammon, 826 F.2d at 81. The plan must consider race-neutral alternatives and be carefully tailored to remedy the problem at hand. Hammon, 826 F.2d at 81. It must be a temporary measure designed to “eliminate a manifest racial imbalance” rather than “maintain a racial balance.” Weber, 443 U.S. at 208, 99 S. Ct. 2721. The plan should pay special attention to how it accomplishes its goals, and the extent to which its methods burden non-minorities. Johnson, 480 U.S. Appendix D–44 at 616, 637-38, 107 S. Ct. 1442. Courts prefer flexible, case-by-case approaches over rigid quota systems. See, e.g., id. at 631-32, 107 S. Ct. 1442; Paradise, 480 U.S. at 177-78, 107 S. Ct. 1053 (plurality opinion), 188 (Powell, J., concurring); Local 28, Sheet Metal Workers’ v. EEOC, 478 U.S. 421, 447, 106 S. Ct. 3019, 92 L.Ed.2d 344 (1986). a. Considering alternatives to explicit racial preferences and narrow tailoring of the program An important factor is the extent to which the employer considered other ways to increase diversity in the workplace. Cf. Hammon, 826 F.2d at 81 (“[B]ecause available race-neutral alternatives were not considered, the District’s race-based hiring methods were not properly tailored to its remedial purposes.”). An employer should strive to achieve its EEO goals through less restrictive means such as minority recruitment, educational programs, and training. See Duffy v. Wolle, 123 F.3d 1026, 1039 (8th Cir. 1997) (readily approving of efforts to increase the pool of female and minority applicants through outreach and recruiting programs). If the employer believes these programs, alone, cannot yield acceptable results, it may consider race-conscious hiring and promotion policies. The employer should not give the race of the applicant more “weight” than is necessary to meet the goals. Hammon, 826 F.2d at 81 (“Johnson does nothing to disturb the longstanding requirement that the remedy crafted to cure a violation must be tailored to fit the violation.” (citing Sheet Metal Workers’, 478 U.S. 421, 106 S. Ct. 3019)). [15] State’s evidence shows it had implemented its affirmative action plan after its past recruitment and Appendix D–45 outreach plans were found lacking. Studies found that State’s efforts throughout the 1980s to increase minority representation were not satisfactory and were progressing too slowly. See, e.g., Underrepresentation of Minorities and Women in the Foreign Service (prepared statement of Joseph Kelly, Director of Security & Int’l Rel. Issues, Nat’l Security & Int’l Affairs Div., GAO). “[T]he EEOC repeatedly pointed out that the State Department has not had an effective affirmative action plan or program for overcoming the underrepresentation in the Foreign Service.” Id. at 1 (Shea—008662). The State Department adopted minority mid-level hiring after repeated prodding by Congress, the EEOC, and other government entities. See generally Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service; The Department of State in the 21st Century. As discussed supra, there may be some initial concerns over whether the program was properly tailored. Courts have expressed concern over affirmative action plans that provide preferences to all minorities, whether or not all of those groups were underrepresented in the employer’s workforce. See, e.g., Alexander v. Estepp, 95 F.3d 312, 316 (4th Cir. 1996) (invalidating, under constitutional standard, affirmative action plan because it benefited all minority groups rather than merely discriminated-against African Americans). The 1990-92 MLAAP waived the “certificate of need” requirement for some minority groups that were not found to be underrepresented in the mid-levels. As explained in greater detail supra, this “overinclusiveness” is not fatal when the 1990-92 MLAAP only set minority hiring goals where State had found a manifest imbalance, and State had found across-the-board Appendix D–46 minority underrepresentation in the Senior Foreign Service. The MLAAP involved case-by-case, targeted recruitment of exceptional minority candidates, and considered the enhanced need for candidates from particular minority groups and backgrounds. See, e.g., Ex. 1b to Def.’s Cross-Mot. b. Whether the plan is “temporary” in design and fact Whether or not the affirmative action plan is “temporary” is another important factor to consider. Courts favor temporary plans to attain racial balance and disfavor indefinite plans to maintain such a balance. Plans that remain in effect long after the employer achieves the desired balance seem less about remedying the lingering effects of past discrimination, and more about permanently providing special protections to certain groups. See, e.g., Taxman v. Board of Educ. of Tp. of Piscataway, 91 F.3d 1547, 1564 (3d Cir. 1996). Shea claims the MLAAP was not temporary because it did not have a definite end date. Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 10-11. Shea makes this argument despite the fact that State ended the MLAAP in February 1993 and did not replace it with a similar affirmative action plan. Def.’s SMF ¶ 17; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 12 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 17). Cf. Hannon v. Chater, 887 F. Supp. 1303, 1318 (N.D. Cal. 1995) (plaintiff cannot meet burden of showing plan was not temporary when program, in fact, ended). While courts may require definite end dates for plans that impose quotas or other rigid formulae, they typically do not require such end dates for more flexible plans. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 639-40, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“Express assurance that a program is only temporary may be Appendix D–47 necessary if the program actually sets aside positions according to specific numbers.”). [16] State introduced sufficient evidence to show the MLAAP was temporary in fact and by design. When State originally adopted the MLAAP, it stated that its “new Mid-Level program will be a temporary supplement to, and adjunct of, the Junior Officer Program,” and “will be appraised annually to determine whether it needs to be continued[.]” Ex. 1b to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 3 (Shea—008649). In fact, the MLAAP underwent continuous monitoring to determine whether the plan was meeting its goals, and whether race-based preferences continued to be necessary to meet those goals. See 1986-87 FRAA, Pub. L. 99-33, Title I, § 152(c) (Congress required annual reports on the “progress being made increasing, through advancement and promotion, the numbers of members of minority groups and women in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service.”); Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. (March 19, 1993 State review of the effectiveness and continuing need for the MLAAP); Ex. 2 to Def.’s CrossMot. (indicating annual EEO audits and quarterly tracking of progress and problem areas through EEO Quarterly Reporting System). Close and periodic monitoring may show that the plan was temporary. See McNamara v. City of Chicago, 867 F. Supp. 739, 752 (N.D. Ill. 1994) (where affirmative action plan reevaluated on annual basis in order “to insure flexibility and to guarantee that the rations are used only so long as they are necessary and appropriate” it satisfies second element of Weber and Johnson); See also Grutter v. Bollinger, 539 U.S. 306, 342, 123 S. Ct. 2325, 156 L.Ed.2d 304 (2003) (“durational requirement can be met by sunset provisions in race-conscious admissions policies and period reviews” to determine Appendix D–48 ongoing need for plan). State has met its burden of production to show that the MLAAP was a temporary measure designed to attain—not maintain—full minority representation. c. Whether the plan forecloses opportunities for non-minority hiring and advancement [17] Another factor to consider is whether the MLAAP forecloses opportunities for nonminority hiring and advancement. See, e.g., Johnson, 480 U.S. at 637-38, 107 S. Ct. 1442. The MLAAP did not impose an “absolute bar” on non-minority “advancement.” Id. At all relevant times, State had a general mid-level hiring program open to white males—the Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Program. See, e.g., Exs. 1A & 1B to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (1982 and 1987 Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Programs). The eligibility requirements for this program were the same as the MLAAP, except an applicant under the MLCCP needed an individual certification of a “need for an outside hire at the grade and in the functional field . . . in which the person is applying.” Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 5 (March 19, 1993 Foreign Service MidLevel Hiring Program Highlights ); see also Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 10, 12-17; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 10-11 (admitting in all relevant respects Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 10, 12-17). While the challenged affirmative action plan was in effect, several non-minority candidates were placed into midlevel positions through the MLCCP. See Ex. 16 to Def.’s Cross-Mot.; Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 27-36; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 14-16 (admitting in all relevant respects Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 27-36). Moreover, Shea could progress to the mid-levels through the ordinary course of promotions. The MLAAP did not bar Shea from reaching the mid-levels Appendix D–49 but—by Shea’s own admission—served to delay his ascension into the mid-levels. See Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 27-36. Shea has, in fact, been promoted to the mid-levels of the Foreign Service; at the time of his Complaint, Shea was at grade FS-03, step 5. See Compl. ¶ 6(c). Several courts have approved of plans that delay, but do not bar, promotion opportunities. See, e.g., Paradise, 480 U.S. at 183, 107 S. Ct. 1053 (“‘Denial of a future employment opportunity is not as intrusive as loss of an existing job,’ and plainly postponement [of a promotion] imposes a lesser burden still.” (quoting Wygant, 476 U.S. at 283, 106 S. Ct. 1842)) (plurality opinion); Johnson, 480 U.S. at 638, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“[P]etitioner had no absolute entitlement to the” higher-level job. “Thus, denial of the promotion unsettled no legitimate, firmly rooted expectation on part of the petitioner. Furthermore, while petitioner in this case was denied a promotion, he retained his employment with the Agency . . . and remained eligible for other promotions.”); McNamara, 867 F. Supp. at 751-52 (plan avoided unnecessarily trammeling interests of non-minorities as it delayed, not barred, promotion of non-minorities). d. The nature of the plan and the extent to which it burdened non-minorities [18] The Court also considers the nature of the program, and the extent to which it burdened non-minorities. The MLAAP does “not require the discharge of white workers and their replacement with new black hires.” Weber, 443 U.S. at 208, 99 S. Ct. 2721. See also Wygant, 476 U.S. at 282-83, 106 S. Ct. 1842 (expressing concern about burden layoffs place on non-minorities); Firefighters v. Stotts, 467 U.S. 561, Appendix D–50 574-76, 104 S. Ct. 2576, 81 L.Ed.2d 483 (1984) (same). The MLAAP involved hiring goals, and in such cases: [T]he burden to be borne by innocent individuals is diffused to a considerable extent among society generally. Though hiring goals may burden some innocent individuals, they simply do not impose the same kind of injury that layoffs impose. Denial of a future employment opportunity is not as intrusive as loss of an existing job. Wygant, 476 U.S. at 283-83, 106 S. Ct. 1842. State’s minority-hiring goals were not accompanied by any minority-hiring quotas —State was not required to hire a particular number of minorities. See Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 5, (March 19, 1993 Foreign Service MidLevel Hiring Program Highlights: “Our hiring goal each year for the affirmative action mid-level program has been about twenty. As you will observe by the hiring statistics . . . we have not come close to our target.”). At no time did State bind itself to hire a certain number of minorities each year; State noted that it was focused the quality of its minority candidates, not the quantity it could hire. See Ex. 1b to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (“Success will be measured by the quality of the future mid-level candidates hired, and their subsequent performance in the Foreign Service, rather than by whether or not specific numerical hiring goals are met each year[.]”). State thoroughly vetted minority candidates, taking far more than their race into account. The MLAAP required “precertification based on a file review, an oral assessment conducted by the staff of the Board of Examiners and the normal background investigation, medical examination and Final Review to determine Appendix D–51 suitability for appointment to the Foreign Service.” Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 5. The MLAAP candidate must have had a “bachelor’s degree from an accredited college or university;” “six additional years of professional level education and/or professional work experience of which three years must have been in an area related to the prospective Foreign Service functional field;” and “supervisory/managerial skills.” Id. The MLAAP did not assign a set “point” value to minority status. The MLAAP was “identical” to the more general mid-level hiring program, except that membership in a minority group substituted for an individual certificate of need. Id. Once those qualified minority candidates applied, they were subject to the same rigorous process as nonminority applicants. See Ex. 7 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (Nov. 1990 State document describing the requirements and application process for both the MLCCP and MLAAP). Cf. Johnson, 480 U.S. at 638, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (approving of plans that “consider[ ] race along with other criteria”); Hammon, 826 F.2d at 79-80 (agreeing with Johnson’s approval of a “‘moderate, flexible, case-by-case approach’” and stressing need for sufficient “screening considerations” to avoid “‘mere blind hiring by the numbers’” (quoting Johnson, 480 U.S. at 636-37, 107 S. Ct. 1442)).9 9 Shea argues that the MLAAP is not flexible—“race acted as an absolute bar to participation in the MLAAP.” Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 5. Shea is technically correct that he was ineligible to apply through the MLAAP because of his race. See id. at 4-7. Shea, however, had an opportunity to apply for direct mid-level placement through the MLCCP, which was substantially identical to the Appendix D–52 MLAAP. See Ex. 7 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (describing, in detail, requirements of both programs). At times, State has spoken of them as if they were two parts of the same program: The Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Program is designed to hire office candidates at the ranks of FP-3, 2 and 1 to supplement the number of Career Foreign Service Officers already in those grades, in accordance with the needs of the Foreign Service. The need is either specific—for an offer at the grade and in the cone which an applicant is seeking to enter; or general—for minority group members under the Department’s Affirmative Action Program to achieve greater representativeness in the Foreign Service. Id. at Shea—3448 (emphasis added). Shea’s argument trades heavily on semantic differences—i.e., it doesn’t matter that I was eligible for the MLCCP, because I was ineligible for the MLAAP—rather than focusing on the true nature of the program, and considering whether it unfairly shut out or burdened non-minorities. While State was interested in increasing the number of minority Foreign Service officers, it strongly emphasized the quality and accomplishments of its minority recruits. The 1990-92 MLAAP plan document says that “State is committed to forging a workforce that fully represents the American diversity without sacrificing excellence.” Ex. 2 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 61 (Shea—00140). The 1990-92 MLAAP aimed to “emphasize selective recruiting of potential candidates on a one-by-one basis[.]” Id. The refined plan concentrated “on quality candidates who are unquestionably successful in their current careers and Appendix D–53 who have been individually recommended by people who know both the candidate and the requirements of the Foreign Service.” Id. This was done despite State’s knowledge that it was “dramatically reduc[ing]” the “number of [minority] applications processed.” Id. State proffers evidence that it screened out many interested minority candidates who did not meet the requirements. Id. State submits evidence that it did not place at least two eligible minority applicants in mid-level positions after those candidates applied. Decl. of Alina Eldred ¶¶ 4-11. This happened despite the fact that State did not meet its minority hiring goals at any time during the MLAAP. See Def.’s SMF ¶ 19 (“Despite the expressed goal of hiring 20 mid-level minorities per year . . ., less than 6 minorities per year were placed in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service, totaling approximately 29 minorities (male and female) during the five-year period of the MLAAP’s existence.”); Pl.’s SMF Resp. 13 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 19). State has met its burden of production that it properly tailored its affirmative action plan so that it would not unnecessarily trammel the interests of non-minorities. C. Shea’s Attempt to Prove that the Affirmative Action Plan is Invalid With State meeting its burden of production, Shea must offer sufficient, potentially admissible10 evidence that the MLAAP was unlawful—that State’s proffered evidence is not worthy of credence and State illegally discriminated against white males. If Shea fails to raise a genuine issue of material fact with admissible evidence, State will prevail. If there is a failure of proof by Shea, State does not have to affirmatively and Appendix D–54 ultimately prove that the MLAAP is lawful. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 627, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (employer’s burden is one of production, not of ultimate proof); Lujan v. Nat’l Wildlife Fed’n, 497 U.S. 871, 885, 110 S. Ct. 3177, 111 L.Ed.2d 695 (1990) (“Rule 56 does not require the moving party to negate the elements of the nonmoving party’s case.”). 10 A “party opposing summary judgment may only rely on evidence ‘capable of being converted into admissible evidence at trial’ to ‘survive summary judgment.’” A.N.S.W.E.R. Coal. v. District of Columbia, 905 F. Supp. 2d 317, 336 n.5 (D.D.C. 2012) (quoting Greer, 505 F.3d at 1315). Evidence that may not be admissible at trial, but is capable of being converted into admissible evidence, includes (for example) sworn affidavits that themselves could run afoul of the Sixth Amendment’s Confrontation Clause, but could be “converted” into admissible evidence by having the affiant testify at trial or in a deposition. See id. (citing Gleklen v. Dem. Congressional Campaign Comm., Inc., 199 F.3d 1365, 1369 (D.C. Cir. 2000)). With this in mind, when the Court speaks of “admissible evidence,” it is really using that phrase as a shorthand for “evidence that is admissible or capable of being converted into admissible evidence.” 1. Shea’s Calculations of the Rate of Minority Representation Shea’s primary evidence is that State’s numbers show that “minorities overall were actually overrepresented in the mid-level grades . . . by September 30, 1989.” Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 3 (emphasis in original). Shea states, “It is self-evident that when minorities are Appendix D–55 overrepresented, the job category is not one that is ‘traditionally segregated.’ . . . [A] program is not remedial when there is no underrepresentation to be remedied, and [ ] it is impossible to properly tailor a remedial program when there is no underrepresentation to remedy.” Id. To support his position, Shea “use[d] lots of numbers and g [ave] the results of lots of calculations[.]” Id. at 12. Shea describes his method thusly: First, he took the “numbers of FSOs at each grade, broken down by race and sex, as of September 30, 1989” from State’s FY 1990-92 FY MLAAP document. Id. at 12-13. See also Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. (Shea’s edited copy of the plan, with additional charts created by Shea). Second, he added “the numbers for male and female officers of each race . . . to determine totals for any given race at any given grade.” Id. at 13. He then used the NCLF Public Administrator figures, available at page 47a of the plan, as his comparator group. Id. (citing Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. at 47a (Shea—00177)). Shea again combined the gender-specific NCLF data to provide one total number for each racial group. Id. at 14. Shea then performed a series of calculations comparing white representation with minority representation. He concludes that “whites were underrepresented in the Foreign Service mid-level grades,” as “[w]hites comprised 85.58 of the Foreign Service mid-level officers” but “comprised 86.1 percent of the Public Administrator” comparator pool. Id. at 15. Shea then performed a series of calculations of white versus minority group representation at various mid-level grades, concluding that his numbers show a vast majority of minority groups were not underrepresented at the mid-level grades. Id. at 15-27. He did not use a commonly-accepted method, such as the standard Appendix D–56 deviation or the “Z statistic” method, to explain the statistical significance of his findings. See Hazelwood School Dist. v. United States, 433 U.S. 299, 308 n.14, 97 S. Ct. 2736, 53 L.Ed.2d 768 (1977) (standard deviation method); Frazier v. Consolidated Rail Corp., 851 F.2d 1447, 1451-52 (D.C. Cir. 1988) (Z statistic method). 2. How Shea’s Analysis Differs From State’s Congress, the GAO, and State had long railed against the overrepresentation of white males in the Foreign Service, especially at its mid- and senior-levels. See supra Parts I.A., III.B. But Shea shows—using State’s own numbers—that whites were actually under represented in the Foreign Service mid-levels. See Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 3. What explains this difference? Shea has widened the comparator pool. Shea concedes that white males were overrepresented, but dismisses this fact as “irrelevant.” Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply. 7. To Shea, the relevant question isn’t whether white males are overrepresented, but whether whites as a whole are overrepresented. State provided numbers broken down by both race and gender, see generally Ex. 2 to Def.’s Cross-Mot., but Shea combined the gender figures for each race to determine the rates of representation by race only, rather than by race and gender, see Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 12-27. Instead of comparing white males to white women, black males, et cetera, Shea simply compares whites to blacks, Asians, Hispanics, et cetera. When the numbers are looked at this way, Shea argues, one finds that whites are actually under represented in the mid-levels, and thus the MLAAP cannot have any legitimate remedial purpose. Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 3, 12-27. Appendix D–57 State raises questions about Shea’s analysis, claiming Shea “manipulated the data in his Memorandum of Points and Authorities by combining the population of White male employees (who were significantly over-represented) with White female employees (who were grossly underrepresented).” Def.’s Cross-Mot. 14. State argues that since “the initial Congressional mandate (comparing White males with all other race/gender groups)” and State had “implemented programs to address the racial/gender disparities,” Shea’s “decision to focus on race alone makes no sense, other than as an attempt to ‘smooth out’ the difference and thereby ‘create’ an entirely new parameter of facts to support his position.” Id. at 14-15. State’s position has some support. First, the evidence suggests that Congress was concerned specifically with white male overrepresentation, rather than the overrepresentation of whites generally. See, e.g., 198687 FRAA, Pub. L. 99-33; 1988-89 FRAA, Pub. L. 100204; Underrepresentation of Women and Minorities in the Foreign Service—State Department: Hearing Before the Subcomm. on the Civil Service of the H. Comm. on Post Office and Civil Service, 101st Cong. (1989). Second, State had separate programs aimed at increasing female representation. See Def.’s SMF ¶ 4; Pl.’s SMF Resp. (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 4). Third, courts have been suspicious of efforts to distort the data by inflating or artificially restricting the comparator groups. See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 636, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“[H]ad the Plan simply calculated imbalances in all categories according to the proportion of women in the area labor pool, and then directed that hiring be governed solely by those figures, its validity fairly could be called into question.”); Smith v. Virginia Commonwealth Univ., 84 F.3d 672, 677 (4th Cir. 1996) Appendix D–58 (“An inflated pool can undermine the validity of a statistical study to determine imbalances.”); Reynolds v. Sheet Metal Workers Local 102, 498 F. Supp. 952, 967-69 (D.D.C. 1980) (questioning relevance and significance of statistical analyses that inflate number of minorities in comparator pools). It is not readily apparent from Shea’s summary judgment motion why he combines males and females to create the relevant comparator groups. This is the Court’s best guess, based on scattered comments from Shea’s briefs: Since the MLAAP is not open to white women, the underrepresentation of white women is not relevant to justifying the MLAAP. Since the MLAAP excluded Shea because of his race, rather than his gender, the pertinent question is whether w h i t e s — r a t h e r t h a n w hi t e m a l e s — w e r e overrepresented in the mid-levels of the Foreign Service. In his opposition brief, Shea does not fully address State’s challenges to using whites as the comparator pool. He seems to misunderstand State’s argument, stating: “The defense emphasis on how ‘grossly’ overrepresented white males were in 1987 seems part of an effort to convince the court to add an element to a Title VII claim asserting a lawful [affirmative action plan]: that the plaintiff was part of a group that was underrepresented in the workforce.” Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 8. State responds that it “has never alleged that the Plaintiff ‘lacks standing’ to raise a claim merely because he is a member of an over-represented group in the workplace,” and finds no explanation as to why Shea combined white males and females in his analysis. Def.’s Reply 5. The Court agrees that it is not entirely clear why Shea chooses this comparator pool. Appendix D–59 What should be clear, however, is that Shea is engaging in a new statistical analysis. He is changing the comparator group that State used to justify its affirmative action plan, and recalculating rates of representation based on Shea’s preferred comparator groups. State raises serious concerns about Shea’s methods and use of comparator pools. Without deciding whether State’s criticisms are valid, the Court notes that the questions they raise are serious and have not been adequately addressed by Shea, as the following analysis will show. 3. Shea Conducts a Statistical Analysis He is Not Competent to Perform Essentially, Shea performs a statistical analysis of State’s data to show that there was, in fact, no “manifest imbalance” in the Foreign Service. Whether or not Shea needs an expert to perform this analysis, it is clear that Shea has not adequately explained his methods or demonstrated the statistical significance of his results. His analysis of State’s racial over- and underrepresentation is not, and is not capable of being transformed into, admissible evidence. a. Courts demand some evidence of the statistical significance of statistics, often presented via an expert witness The case law in this circuit overwhelmingly finds that this kind of analysis requires proof as to its statistical significance. In Frazier v. Consolidated Rail Corporation, 851 F.2d 1447, 1450 (D.C. Cir. 1988), the D.C. Circuit made the fundamental statement that while the use of statistical analysis has “become routine” and “well accepted” in discrimination cases, “[a] statistical calculation relies on a number of Appendix D–60 underlying assumptions, the validity of which can often be assessed only by those with experience in the field.” In Frazier, the plaintiffs did not use “an expert to explain the statistical calculations to the district court,” but submitted raw data about disparate treatment and “several results of numerical calculation performed by counsel.” Id. “These calculations were all done according to widely known methods previously reported in other discrimination cases, regulations and commentaries” and included a “Z statistic” calculation to explain the statistical significance of the results. Id. While not deciding whether expert witnesses are required for this kind of analysis, the D.C. Circuit stressed the importance of verifying the significance of the statistics, and upheld the district court’s evidentiary findings: We are not prepared to say that the Z statistic calculation is so simple and straight forward that an expert is never required to explain it to a finder of fact. Nor do we wish to be understood as holding that an expert is always required. We leave both possibilities open because it would be impossible to anticipate the impact of this theory upon every conceivable factual situation. We believe that in the factual context of this case, the district court made a valid finding that the plaintiffs’ proffered statistics were not sufficiently presented to make out a prima facie case of adverse impact. Id. at 1453. Courts in this Circuit have continued to require evidence of statistical significance—often provided by experts—before giving any weight to proffered Appendix D–61 statistics. In Kline v. Springer, 602 F. Supp. 2d 234, 238-39 (D.D.C. 2009), the district court succinctly disregarded plaintiff’s assertions about the underrepresentation of white female underrepresentation. The Court noted that even if the plaintiff’s “numbers were properly supported by record evidence they would not be enough. Without additional context, such as correctly defined pools, no reasonable juror could infer a background of reverse discrimination . . . from the bare numbers.” Id. at 239. In Horvath v. Thompson, 329 F. Supp. 2d 1 (D.D.C. 2004), a pro se plaintiff in a reverse gender discrimination suit tried to introduce self-prepared statistics showing a manifest imbalance of white men in the workplace. The Court found that plaintiff’s numbers regarding the underrepresentation of males were “simply irrelevant,” “absent a showing of their significance[.]” Id. at 11. In that case, the plaintiff failed to introduce sufficient evidence about “the pool of available and qualified applicants,” and “any measure of ‘the probability that the outcome of a statistical analysis would have occurred by chance.’” Id. (quoting Segar v. Smith, 738 F.2d 1249, 1282 (D.C. Cir. 1984)). In Thomas v. Chao, 65 Fed. Appx. 321, 324 (D.C. Cir. 2003), the D.C. Circuit found that the “District Court was correct to exclude from evidence the list of employers identified by race and sex, and witness’ observations about the race and sex of employees, in the absence of an expert who could testify that the alleged underrepresentation was statistically insignificant.” Appendix D–62 b. Shea’s calculations cannot withstand the rigorous scrutiny courts in this circuit apply to statistics in Title VII cases The infirmity of Shea’s lay statistics is further emphasized by the rigorous, exacting analysis courts in this circuit have applied to this kind of statistical evidence. See, e.g., Berger v. Iron Workers Reinforced Rodmen Local 201, 843 F.2d 1395, 1411-23 (D.C. Cir. 1988), on rehearing 852 F.2d 619 (D.C. Cir. 1988); McReynolds v. Sodexho Marriott Services, Inc., 349 F. Supp. 2d 1, 8-28 (D.D.C. 2004).11 Looking at Shea’s analysis, this Court has several fundamental, threshold questions. Why does Shea continue to use the 1980 numbers for the relevant comparator pool, see Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. 3, 12-14, even though the GAO report containing those numbers explicitly disclaimed their reliability, and more recent numbers were available? See Ex. 3 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. 21 (Shea—008695). Why is it appropriate for Shea to combine while males and while females, and recalculate the underrepresentation figures by race only? Isn’t Shea simply inflating the comparator group to diminish the rate of white male overrepresentation? How, and why, has Shea recalculated the rates of underrepresentation? Has he done so pursuant to standard, generally accepted procedures? Are his results statistically significant? What is the error rate? How does Shea measure statistical significance and error rates? 11 This presents another way to look at this issue: In comparison with the detailed, searching analysis used in Berger and McReynolds, it is clear that Shea’s statistical analysis—expert or not—cannot pass muster. Appendix D–63 The Court needs to answer these questions before it can determine the relevance, reliability, and probative value of Shea’s calculations—and thus their admissibility. See Frazier, 851 F.2d at 1452 (“Statistical comparisons performed on data in discrimination cases are not probative of anything without support from an underlying statistical theory.”). Shea does not adequately answer these questions. “[T]he statistics must be made meaningful to the finder of fact in order to permit the plaintiff[ ] to carry [his] burden of showing that [his] statistics are significant.” Id. at 1453. Even if Shea did not necessarily need an expert to conduct his analysis—as left open by Frazier, 851 F.2d at 1453—this Court finds that plaintiff’s proffered statistics were not sufficiently presented to withstand the scrutiny this Court must apply in determining their relevance and reliability, cf. id. c. Shea’s analysis is not as simple and modest as he claims [19] Shea claims that his analysis simply relies on numbers provided in State’s own documents. See Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 9-10, 13, 25. A simple examination of plaintiff’s Exhibit 2 shows that he is not merely pointing to State’s analysis and why it cannot support State’s position. Instead he combines different sets of State’s numbers—merging the figures for males and females—and recalculating overrepresentation rates based on what Shea thinks should be the relevant comparator. See Ex. 2 to Pl.’s Mot. Summ. J. (plaintiff-created charts at pages 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17). He, in essence, changes the comparator groups without a sufficient explanation for the change, and without a background in the kinds of “pools” analysis frequently Appendix D–64 done by statisticians in Title VII cases. See, e.g., Whitacre v. Davey, 890 F.2d 1168, 1172 (D.C. Cir. 1989) (requiring “evidence of the pool of available and qualified applicants” before proffered statistics may be considered adequate); Palmer, 815 F.2d at 91 (discussing “pools” analysis in Title VII cases); Segar, 738 F.2d at 1278 (same); McReynolds, 349 F. Supp. 2d at 9 (same). Shea claims that, in so recalculating the overrepresentation numbers, he is doing simple math—that he does not need any advanced degrees or specialized knowledge to add, subtract, multiply, and divide. See Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 16-17, 25-31. Certainly, a big part of what most statisticians do boils down to simple math. But statisticians are not experts because they are particularly adept at math—the Court suspects that many use performance-enhancing calculators. Statisticians are experts because they know which numbers to use, and what functions to apply to each set of numbers. In this case, the relevant expertise is not simply applying elementary school-level math to sets of numbers found within the defendant’s documents. It is knowing, out of the different sets of numbers spread throughout State’s reports, which sets of numbers to compare and how to compare them. It is being able to explain whether a disparity between whites and minorities is statistically significant, and whether the results have accounted for “noise” that may skew the numbers. See, e.g., Berger, 843 F.2d at 1411-23; Frazier, 851 F.2d at 1452; McReynolds, 349 F. Supp. 2d at 8-28. Appendix D–65 d. Shea is not qualified to offer expert or lay opinion testimony Shea’s numbers are irrelevant without some explanation of their significance. Shea might need an expert to opine on the statistical significance of the recalculated underrepresentation figures. See Chao, 65 Fed. Appx. at 324. Without even considering Shea’s qualifications, Shea could not provide expert testimony because he did not disclose his testimony—per Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 26—by the deadlines imposed by the Court. See Revised Scheduling Order 2, July 6, 2010, ECF No. 84 (setting expert deadline as September 30, 2010). Shea had ample opportunity to designate an expert, and was aware of the relevant deadlines when he asked for—and received—extensions of the expert disclosure and discovery deadlines. See, e.g., Minute Entry, Sept. 22, 2009; Minute Entry, Dec. 18, 2009; Pl.’s Mot. for Discovery Extension, June 28, 2010, ECF No. 81. Shea’s unexcused and inexcusable failure to timely designate an expert per the Court’s deadlines disqualifies him as an “expert,” and makes his calculations and conclusions inadmissible to the extent they require expert testimony. Shea cannot present “lay” opinion testimony as to the statistical significance of his findings. Such testimony typically involves disclosed experts and is thus not amenable to lay expert analysis. See Fed. R. Evid. 701(c) (forbidding lay opinion testimony “based on scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge within the scope of Rule 702”). Lay opinion testimony “‘is limited to those opinions or inferences which are (a) rationally based on the perception of the witness and (b) helpful to a clear understanding of the witness’ testimony or the determination of a fact in issue.’” United States v. Appendix D–66 Williams, 212 F.3d 1305, 1310 n.6 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (quoting pre-2011 amendment wording of Fed. R. Evid. 701 1 2 ). Shea’s opinions on the rates of overrepresentation are not based on his own perceptions and feelings, or his personal knowledge and experience. He has not attained “specialized knowledge . . . through experience rather than scientific or technical training,” and is not testifying “based solely on personal experience with the case at issue.” Armenian Assembly of Am. v. Cafesjian, 746 F. Supp. 2d 55, 65 (D.D.C. 2010). Therefore, his testimony therefore would not be admissible as “lay opinion” or “lay expert” testimony under Rule 701. Cf. Barnes v. District of Columbia, 924 F. Supp. 2d 74, 82-86, 2013 WL 541148, *6-*9 (D.D.C. 2013) (discussing admissibility of lay opinion testimony). 12 The 2011 changes made to Rule 701 were “intended to be stylistic only” and were not intended “to change any result in any ruling on evidence admissibility.” Fed. R. Evid. 701 advisory committee’s note. e. Even if no expert is needed, Shea has failed to adequately explain his methods and the statistical significance of his results [20] [21] Even if this kind analysis would not require an expert, per se, Shea has failed to properly defend his analysis. “Statistical comparisons performed on data in discrimination cases are not probative of anything without support from an underlying statistical theory.” Frazier, 851 F.2d at 1452. Simply presenting numbers and comparisons to the Court is not sufficient. See Saunders v. White, 191 F. Supp. 2d 95, 133 (D.D.C. 2002); Hatcher-Capers v. Haley, 786 F. Supp. 1054, 1063-64 (D.D.C. 1992). The party offering Appendix D–67 the statistics must articulate how the data should be interpreted and why it supports the party’s position. Saunders, 191 F. Supp. 2d at 133. The party must “demonstrate that the data [ ]he offers is statistically significant,” Haley, 786 F. Supp. at 1063, and explain how the numbers reflect discrimination (or a lack thereof) rather than, for example, “incomprehensive statistical treatment, varying levels of qualifications among applicants, errors in definition or groups, inappropriate sampling methods, errors in measurement, or even clerical and computational errors,” Frazier, 851 F.2d at 1452. As in Frazier, id. at 1453, Shea’s statistics are not “sufficiently presented;” Shea cannot explain his methods and assumptions such that his statistics are “meaningful to the trier of fact in order to permit” him to carry his burden of “showing that [his] statistics are significant.”13 He inflates the comparator pool without an adequate justification for using this larger pool. He provides no explanation of whether his recalculated rates of overrepresentation are statistically significant, per any generally accepted measure. He does not even attempt a standard deviation or “Z statistic” calculation. He does not even reference—let alone explain how he relied on—“widely known methods previously reported in other discrimination cases, regulations, and commentaries.” Id. at 1450. He gives the Court none of the information it would need to make a threshold determination of the relevance, reliability, and admissibility of his amateur statistics. 13 From the D.C. Circuit’s description, the non-expert statistics Frazier found to be insufficiently presented appear to be much more Appendix D–68 detailed than the analysis offered by Shea. 851 F.2d at 1450-54. Courts often give pro se litigants more slack than represented parties—for example, Courts may be more generous in construing pro se complaints when considering a motion to dismiss. See generally Pettaway v. United States, 390 A.2d 981, 984 (D.C.1978) (“We have a duty to be indulgent of pro se pleadings.”). This generosity does not extend, however, to allowing Shea to provide his own opinions where expert testimony is needed, or subjecting Shea’s statistical methods to far less scrutiny than any other litigant would face. f. State is not required to offer expert testimony to meet its burden Shea argues that it is unfair to ask him to use experts to show that a manifest imbalance did not justify the MLAAP, but not require State to use experts to show that there was such a manifest imbalance. Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 7-8, 31-35. Requiring State—as a condition of meeting its burden of production—to retain outside experts to verify that State designed the MLAAP to correct for a manifest imbalance would severely undermine the allocation of burdens established in McDonnell Douglas and Johnson. Johnson, read liberally, might suggest that the mere production of an affirmative action plan could meet the employer’s burden under McDonnell Douglas. See 480 U.S. at 627, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (“Once a plaintiff establishes a prima facie case that race or sex has been taken into account in an employer’s employment decision, the burden shifts to the employer to articulate a nondiscriminatory rationale for its decision. The existence of an affirmative action plan provides such a rationale. If such a plan is articulated as the basis for the Appendix D–69 employer’s decision, the burden shifts to the plaintiff to prove that the employer’s justification is pretextual and the plan is invalid.”). State has done more than simply point to its affirmative action plan—it has provided evidence indicating its plan is lawful, justified by a need to remedy a manifest imbalance, and properly tailored to those ends. However, by submitting this evidence, State does not admit that it “carr[ies] the burden of proving the validity of the plan. The burden of proving its invalidity remains on the plaintiff.” Id. at 627-28, 107 S. Ct. 1442. The Court admits that the law is not precise on exactly how much evidence an employer must offer to defend its affirmative action plan. Cf. 2 Lindemann, Grossman & Weirich, Employment Discrimination Law 2506-07 (“On the fact-specific issue as to what evidence is needed to prove discrimination sufficient to undertake affirmative action, however, the lower courts have not taken a consistent approach.”). Nevertheless, wherever the exact location of the “line” is, the Court is confident (as discussed supra in Part III.A.) that State’s proffered evidence goes far beyond that line. Under current precedent—Johnson and its progeny—an employer is not necessarily required to provide expert testimony to meet its burden of production. The reports from the State Department, congressional subcommittees, and the GAO—created during the normal course of business—could be sufficient to establish the required “manifest imbalance” and “predicate of discrimination.” See supra Part.III.B. (detailing evidence introduced by State). To authenticate and discuss the content of these reports, the defendant would not necessarily need expert witnesses, or treat its party witnesses as such. See Appendix D–70 Barnes, 924 F. Supp. 2d at 83-84, 2013 WL 541148, at *7 (defendant’s contemporaneously-created reports on the rates of prisoner overdetentions “are not expert reports,” but “business records—created not in anticipation of litigation, but in the normal course of business—that do not require a Rule 26(a)(2) designated expert to authenticate them”); cf. National R.R. Passenger Corp. v. Railway Express, LLC, 268 F.R.D. 211, 214-15 (D. Md. 2010) (party employees may be required to provide expert disclosures if employee witness renders opinions on matters outside the normal scope of their employment or the employer retains or specially employs them to testify). As properly authenticated business records, these reports and documents could justify the MLAAP without the need for experts. 4. Shea’s Evidence that the MLAAP Forecloses Advancement Opportunities for Non-Minorities Shea argues that the MLAAP, in effect, forecloses advancement opportunities for non-minorities. Shea claims he “was not aware of any mid-level hiring program that non-minorities were eligible for when [he] applied for a job with the Foreign Service in 1990[.]” Pl.’s Opp’n to Def.’s Second Mot. Reconsideration 41, Apr. 12, 2011, ECF No. 95. While Shea’s subjective knowledge of the MLCCP may be relevant to mitigation of damages, it is not relevant in considering the legality of the MLAAP, as it is undisputed that such a general mid-level hiring program existed. Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 9-12, 22; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 10-13 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 9-12, 22). Nevertheless, Shea claims that the MLCCP would have done him no good, as State was not issuing certificates of need for his particular area of expertise. Shea says Appendix D–71 that no certificates of need were issued between January 1990 and the date he began with State, May 31, 1992. Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 35. Shea continues, “The first mid-level white hiring comes on October 19, 1992—after I had started my employment with State.” Id. In support of this position, Shea cites defense exhibit 16 (ECF No. 128-18), a chart entitled “MidLevel Hiring 1990 to 1994.” This chart shows that State first hired Caucasian as a mid-level on October 19, 1992.14 14 This, of course, does not mean there were no white mid-level hires prior to October 1992. Construing this chart, the Court draws all reasonable inferences in favor of Shea, and does feel the need to address whether there were non-minority mid-level hires prior to this date. Elsewhere State argues, “Due to the passage of time cause by Plaintiff’s nine-year delay in bringing this action and the resulting loss of records, Defendant is unable to tell if any certificates of need were issued by the State Department in the fiscal years 1990 and 1991.” Def.’s Cross-Mot. 26 n.16. Since this is merely the ipse dixit of counsel, unsupported by a sworn affidavit or admissible evidence, the Court ignores this argument entirely and focuses on what can actually be shown by the evidence. See A.N.S.W.E.R. Coal. v. District of Columbia, 905 F. Supp. 2d 317, 334-36 (D.D.C. 2012) (unsworn statements of counsel, unsupported by the evidence, is evidence of nothing at the summary judgment stage) (citing Schoch v. First Fidelity Bancorporation, 912 F.2d 654, 657 (3d Cir. 1990); Int’l Distrib. Corp. v. Am. Dist. Tel. Co., 569 F.2d 136, 139 (D.C. Cir. 1977)). Appendix D–72 This chart does not show that no certificates of need were being issued—or that it was impossible to receive such a certificate —when Shea applied. Certificates of need, as prerequisites to applying for a mid-level position, must be issued some time before an applicant is hired. Exs. 1A & 1B to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (1982 and 1987 Mid-Level Foreign Service Career Candidate Programs). Consider the case of Patricia Haslach, whom Shea cites as the nonminority candidate hired on October 19, 1992. Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 35. According to a letter from Haslach to State, Haslach inquired about the MLCCP as early as December 12, 1990. Ex. 17 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (Shea—07538). On January 10, 1991, Haslach applied for a mid-level position, id.; apparently it took approximately 22 months for her to be hired at State, see Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 28, 30-32; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 14-15 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶¶ 28, 30-32). This shows that simply because no white mid-levels were hired until a few months after Shea entered State, this does not mean no certificates of need were issued until after Shea entered State. Shea next cites a November 30, 1992, memorandum sent to the State Department Director General titled, “Minority Recruitment and Hiring.” Ex. 1 to Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply, ECF No. 123-1. The memo states that “at present,” State was then “able to certify mid-level need for admin, econ, and science officers at the 02 and 03 levels, and consular officers at the 02 levels.” Ex. 1 to Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply (Shea—03765). To Shea this means State was not issuing certificates for consular officers at grade FS-3—the position he would have been interested in and qualified for—and therefore he was effectively shut out of the MLCCP. See Pl.’s Opp’n & Reply 37. However, this conclusion does not follow from the memorandum. First, the memo only concerns Appendix D–73 certificates of need as of November 1992, and says absolutely nothing about the availability of consular certificates prior to that date. In fact, prior to November 1992, State did approve of certificates of need for FS-03 consular officers. See Ex. 10 to Def.’s Cross-Mot. (on May 14, 1992, approving of FS-03 consular certificates of need) (Shea—07372). This May 1992 State document undermines Shea’s interpretation of the November 1992 memorandum—simply because FS-03 consular certificates were not available in November 1992 does not mean they were not available earlier, while Shea was applying for a position. Overall, Shea does not present sufficient evidence to infer that was completely shut out of the MLCCP or did not have an opportunity to reach the mid-levels. By his own admission, Shea never inquired about the MLCCP, requested a certificate of need, or applied to the program. Def.’s SMF ¶ 22; Pl.’s SMF Resp. 13 (admitting Def.’s SMF ¶ 22); Pl.’s Opp’n to Def.’s Second Mot. Reconsideration 41. Applying for, and being rejected from, mid-level placement would be the clearest evidence that he was not eligible for mid-level placement. At this point, Shea’s evidence is speculative at best and not sufficient to overcome State’s evidentiary proffer. IV. CONCLUSION The role of a district court is to ascertain and apply the law as it is, not as the Court thinks it should be. This Court finds that the Supreme Court’s majority opinion in Johnson v. Transportation Agency, Santa Clara County, 480 U.S. 616, 107 S. Ct. 1442, 94 L.Ed.2d 615 (1987)—as it has been interpreted and applied in this Circuit—provides the controlling standard for analyzing Title VII challenges of affirmative action Appendix D–74 plans. Under Johnson, after the plaintiff has made a prima facie claim of racial discrimination, the defendant must only meet a burden of production—not persuasion—that it acted pursuant to a legal affirmative action plan. The ultimate persuasive burden is, at all times, on the plaintiff to prove that the affirmative action plan was unlawful. Under this standard, Shea has failed to provide sufficient, admissible evidence that State’s affirmative action plan was not justified by a manifest imbalance in the workforce or properly tailored to achieve remedial goals. In particular, Shea’s amateur statistics regarding the rates of minority representation in the Foreign Service would be inadmissible, as Shea provides no evidence as to the statistical significance of his results. Since Shea cannot prove an essential element of his claim, and has had a full and fair opportunity obtain relevant discovery, the State Department is entitled to summary judgment on Shea’s remaining claim. For Shea, this may be a less than satisfying end to this long-running case. This Court is, in some ways, sympathetic. The Court wonders why it is harder to challenge an affirmative action plan under Title VII than under the Constitution. When challenging affirmative action under the Equal Protection Clause, strict scrutiny applies and the defendant has the ultimate burden of explaining why it was necessary to treat people differently based on their race. But when the challenge is under Title VII, we make the plaintiff ultimately prove that race-based discrimination is illegal.15 The Court questions the wisdom of looking to legislative history to create a textual ambiguity, rather than resolve one—carving out exceptions from a clear mandate not to discriminate because we imagine what Appendix D–75 legislators would have done, rather than focus on what they actually did. 16 Our affirmative action jurisprudence—both statutory and constitutional—operates under the assumption that unambiguous mandates not to discriminate based on race somehow apply with less force to members of the “majority.” 15 See Johnson, 480 U.S. at 626-27, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (providing Title VII McDonnell Douglas burden shifting standard for analyzing affirmative action plans); Wygant, 476 U.S. at 273, 106 S. Ct. 1842 (providing constitutional strict scrutiny standard for analyzing affirmative action plans); Johnson, 480 U.S. at 627 n.6, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (majority opinion clarifying that statutory procedure for analyzing affirmative action plans is indeed different from the constitutional test); Stewart, 948 F. Supp. at 1093 (“The standard for determining whether affirmative relief is justified under Title VII is less stringent than under the Constitution.”). 16 Our affirmative action jurisprudence has its origins in the backwards idea that the “spirit” of a law somehow trumps its plain and unambiguous letter. In Weber and Johnson, the Supreme Court somehow found—in plain language barring racial discrimination—an out to give racial preferences to minority groups. Certainly, the Court thought, it would be absurd for a law barring racial discrimination not to allow some. See generally Johnson, 480 U.S. at 657-77, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (Scalia, J., dissenting). The Court is reminded of Chief Justice Roberts’ incisive statement: “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of Appendix D–76 race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” Parents Involved in Cmty. Sch. v. Seattle Sch. Dist. No. 1, 551 U.S. 701, 748, 127 S. Ct. 2738, 168 L.Ed.2d 508 (2007) (Roberts, C.J., concurring) (emphasis added). While the tide may be turning against this approach to affirmative action, it has yet to directly reach Johnson’s Title VII standard.17 Much of the doubt about our present affirmative action jurisprudence has been consigned to dissents, noncontrolling concurrences, dictum, and scholarly critiques.18 Absent a clear statement from the Supreme Court or the Court of Appeals that Johnson no longer governs, this Court must apply its principles. Therefore, Shea’s Title VII challenge to State’s affirmative action plan must fail, and State is entitled to summary judgment. This constitutes final judgment in this action, and the Court dismiss this case with prejudice. 17 Many—including Judge Robertson in this case, Mem. Order 8 n. 3, Aug. 11, 2009, ECF No. 69—have questioned the continuing viability of Johnson and other affirmative action precedent in light of Ricci v. DeStefano, 557 U.S. 557, 129 S. Ct. 2658, 174 L.Ed.2d 490 (2009). See, e.g., Marcia L. McCormick, Disparate Impact and Equal Protection After Ricci v. DeStefano, 27 Wis. J.l. Gender & Soc’y 100 (2012); Roberto L. Corrada, Ricci’s Dicta: Signaling a New Standard for Affirmative Action Under Title VII?, 46 Wake Forest L. Rev. 241 (2011); Sachin S. Pandya, Detecting the Stealth Erosion of Precedent: Affirmative Action After Ricci, 31 Berkeley J. Emp. & Lab. l. 285 (2010). However, as these articles indicate, nothing in Ricci directly Appendix D–77 overturns or modifies Johnson, at least as it applies to this case. The arguments are that Ricci has dicta signaling that the Supreme Court will change course on affirmative action in the future. This Court cannot depart from long-standing, clear precedent based on such speculation. Many also thought—including this Judge in Stewart, 948 F. Supp. at 1094-95—there would be a significant change to affirmative action jurisprudence after City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson Co., 488 U.S. 469, 109 S. Ct. 706, 102 L.Ed.2d 854 (1989) and Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Pena, 515 U.S. 200, 115 S. Ct. 2097, 132 L.Ed.2d 158 (1995). See, e.g., Margaret A. Sewell, Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Pena: The Armageddon of Affirmative Action, 46 Depaul L. Rev. 611 (1997); Lara Hudgins, Rethinking Affirmative Action in the 1990s: Tailoring the Cure to Remedy the Disease, 47 Baylor L. Rev. 815 (1995); John Payton, The Meaning and Significance of the Croson Case, 1 Geo. Mason U. Civ. Rts. L.J. 59 (1990). This has yet to pass, as in the years since Croson and Adarand, the Supreme Court has yet to overrule Johnson and Weber. Cf. Neal Devins, Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Pena and the Continuing Irrelevance of Supreme Court Affirmative Action Decisions, 37 Wm. & Mary L. Rev. 673 (1996) (arguing neither Croson or Adarand had effect many expected). Others still thought that Parents Involved, 551 U.S. 701, 127 S. Ct. 2738 (2007), sounded the death kneel for affirmative action. See Katherine M. Planer, The Death of Diversity? Affirmative Action in the Workplace After Parents Involved, 39 Seton Hall L. Rev. 1333 (2009). While not much may be clear Appendix D–78 about affirmative action, the reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. Cf. Frank Marshall White, Mark Twain Amused/Humorist Says He Even Heard on Good Authority That He Was Dead, N.Y. Journal, June 2, 1897, at 1, reprinted in MARK TWAIN: THE COMPLETE INTERVIEWS 317-18 (Gary Scharnhorst ed., 2006). 18 See, e.g., Ricci, 557 U.S. at 594-97, 129 S. Ct. 2658 (Scalia, J., concurring); Johnson, 480 U.S. at 65777, 107 S. Ct. 1442 (Scalia, J., dissenting); Hill v. Ross, 183 F.3d 586, 588 (7th Cir. 1999); Stewart, 948 F. Supp. at 1094-95 (Lamberth, J.); Finch v. City of Indianapolis, 886 F. Supp. 2d 945, 961 & n.15 (S.D. Ind. 2012); Thomas Sowell, Black Education: Myths and Tragedies 292 (1972); Ryan M. Peck, Title VII is Color Blind: The Law of Reverse Discrimination, 75 J. Kan. B.A. 20 (June 2006); Kathryn A. Sampson, Negotiating a Slippery Slope: Voluntary Affirmative Action After Johnson, 14 J. Corp. L. 201 (1988); Charles Murray, Affirmative Racism, THE NEW REPUBLIC, Dec. 31, 1984, at 18. A separate Order consistent with this Memorandum Opinion shall issue this date. Appendix E–1 42 U.S.C.A. § 2000e-16 § 2000e-16. Employment by Federal Government (a) Discriminatory practices prohibited; employees or applicants for employment subject to coverage All personnel actions affecting employees or applicants for employment (except with regard to aliens employed outside the limits of the United States) in military departments as defined in section 102 of Title 5, in executive agencies as defined in section 105 of Title 5 (including employees and applicants for employment who are paid from nonappropriated funds), in the United States Postal Service and the Postal Regulatory Commission, in those units of the Government of the District of Columbia having positions in the competitive service, and in those units of the judicial branch of the Federal Government having positions in the competitive service, in the Smithsonian Institution, and in the Government Publishing Office, the Government Accountability Office, and the Library of Congress shall be made free from any discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. (b) Equal Employment Opportunity Commission; enforcement powers; issuance of rules, regulations, etc.; annual review and approval of national and regional equal employment opportunity plans; review and evaluation of equal employment opportunity programs and publication of progress reports; consultations with interested parties; compliance with rules, regulations, etc.; contents of national and regional equal employment opportunity plans; authority of Librarian of Congress Appendix E–2 Except as otherwise provided in this subsection, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission shall have authority to enforce the provisions of subsection (a) of this section through appropriate remedies, including reinstatement or hiring of employees with or without back pay, as will effectuate the policies of this section, and shall issue such rules, regulations, orders and instructions as it deems necessary and appropriate to carry out its responsibilities under this section. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission shall— (1) be responsible for the annual review and approval of a national and regional equal employment opportunity plan which each department and agency and each appropriate unit referred to in subsection (a) of this section shall submit in order to maintain an affirmative program of equal employment opportunity for all such employees and applicants for employment; (2) be responsible for the review and evaluation of the operation of all agency equal employment opportunity programs, periodically obtaining and publishing (on at least a semiannual basis) progress reports from each such department, agency, or unit; and (3) consult with and solicit the recommendations of interested individuals, groups, and organizations relating to equal employment opportunity. The head of each such department, agency, or unit shall comply with such rules, regulations, orders, and instructions which shall include a provision that an employee or applicant for employment shall be notified of any final action taken on any complaint of discrimination filed by him thereunder. The plan Appendix E–3 submitted by each department, agency, and unit shall include, but not be limited to— (1) provision for the establishment of training and education programs designed to provide a maximum opportunity for employees to advance so as to perform at their highest potential; and (2) a description of the qualifications in terms of training and experience relating to equal employment opportunity for the principal and operating officials of each such department, agency, or unit responsible for carrying out the equal employment opportunity program and of the allocation of personnel and resources proposed by such department, agency, or unit to carry out its equal employment opportunity program. With respect to employment in the Library of Congress, authorities granted in this subsection to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission shall be exercised by the Librarian of Congress. (c) Civil action by employee or applicant for employment for redress of grievances; time for bringing of action; head of department, agency, or unit as defendant Within 90 days of receipt of notice of final action taken by a department, agency, or unit referred to in subsection (a) of this section, or by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission upon an appeal from a decision or order of such department, agency, or unit on a complaint of discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex or national origin, brought pursuant to subsection (a) of this section, Executive Order 11478 or any succeeding Executive orders, or after one hundred and eighty days from the filing of the initial Appendix E–4 charge with the department, agency, or unit or with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission on appeal from a decision or order of such department, agency, or unit until such time as final action may be taken by a department, agency, or unit, an employee or applicant for employment, if aggrieved by the final disposition of his complaint, or by the failure to take final action on his complaint, may file a civil action as provided in section 2000e-5 of this title, in which civil action the head of the department, agency, or unit, as appropriate, shall be the defendant. (d) Section 2000e-5(f) through (k) of this title applicable to civil actions The provisions of section 2000e-5(f) through (k) of this title, as applicable, shall govern civil actions brought hereunder, and the same interest to compensate for delay in payment shall be available as in cases involving nonpublic parties.1 (e) Government agency or official not relieved of responsibility to assure nondiscrimination in employment or equal employment opportunity Nothing contained in this Act shall relieve any Government agency or official of its or his primary responsibility to assure nondiscrimination in employment as required by the Constitution and statutes or of its or his responsibilities under Executive Order 11478 relating to equal employment opportunity in the Federal Government. (f) Section 2000e-5(e)(3) of this title applicable to compensation discrimination 1 So in original. Appendix E–5 Section 2000e-5(e)(3) of this title shall apply to complaints of discrimination in compensation under this section.