The Arab Spring:
What it represents & implications for national security
(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)
Mansoor Moaddel (PI)
Arland Thornton (Co-PI)
Stuart Karabenick
Linda Young-DeMarco
Julie de Jong
The Arab Spring:
What it represents & implications for national security
(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)
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Overview
The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological
movements for democracy & economic prosperity
The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool
A shift in people’s political and cultural values
Who participated in the Arab Spring?
Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity
Interest in Western technology
Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies
toward political violence
(2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a
basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public
Data Collection Methods
Face-to-face interviews with nationallyrepresentative samples
Survey Field Period
Egypt
June – August 2011
Iraq
January – February 2011
Lebanon
March – July 2011
Saudi Arabia January – February 2011
Survey questionnaire available:
http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004
Sample Size
3,496
3,000
3,034
2,005
People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:
Movements for democracy & economic prosperity
% reporting main reason for the Arab Spring
70%
60%
59%
51%
50%
40%
30%
25%
20%
15%
9%
10%
10%
9%
2%
9%
2%
3%
4%
0%
Freedom &
democracy
Economic
equality &
prosperity
Islamic
government
Egypt
Counter Western Part of a Western
influence
conspiracy
Lebanon
Arab unity
%Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources
of Information
80%
74%
69%
70%
62%
60%
50%
49%
49%
40%
30%
28%
20%
14%
14%
10%
10%
0%
Egypt
Iraq
Satellite TV
Internet
Saudi Arabia
Mobile
Trends in values among Egyptians,
Iraqis, and Saudis
National Identity
Which one of the following best describes you?
1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all
2. I am a Muslim, above all
3. I am an Arab, above all
4. I am a Kurd, above all
5. Other
Egypt: % Expressing “I am an Egyptian,
Muslim, or Arab, above all”
90%
81%
80%
70%
60%
50%
50%
48%
40%
30%
20%
10%
8%
1%
2%
0%
Above all, Egyptian
Above all, Muslim
2001
2011
Above all, Arab
Iraq: % Expressing “I am Iraqi, above all”
70%
63%
59%
60%
57%
56%
50%
40%
32%
30%
23%
20%
10%
0%
Dec.-2004
Apr.-2006
Mar.-2007
Jul.-2007
Dec.-2008
Jan.-2011
Saudi Arabia: % Expressing “I Am Saudi, Muslim,
or Arab, above all”
100%
90%
80%
75%
70%
60%
46%
50%
44%
40%
30%
20%
17%
9%
10%
8%
0%
Saudi, above all
Muslim, above all
2003
2011
Arab, above all
Trends in values
Religion & Politics
Is it very important, important, somewhat
important, not important, or not at all important
for a good government to
1.Implement only the Shari'a law?
2.Implement only the wishes of the people?
Egyptian Muslims:
People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a
70%
64%
60%
50%
48%
40%
31%
28%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Shari'a law
Laws according to the people's wishes
2001
2011
Egypt: Which is better in a politician?
Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to
national interests(2011)
90%
78%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
22%
20%
10%
0%
Strong religious beliefs
Strong commitment to national interests
Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if
religion and politics are separated
80%
70%
69%
Dec.-2008
Jan.-2011
60%
60%
50%
70%
55%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dec.-2004
Apr.-2006
Oct.-2006
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a
& in trust of religious institutions
90%
84%
80%
70%
69%
60%
50%
46%
40%
31%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Shari'a law very important
Trusting religious institutions a great deal
2003
2011
Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov’t
(% Strongly agree)
90%
84%
79%
80%
70%
68%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
9%
10%
2%
5%
0%
Democratic political system
2001
Strong head of government
2008
2011
Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government
is good
70%
60%
59%
55%
53%
50%
40%
30%
30%
22%
20%
15%
11%
11%
12%
10%
5%
6%
0%
Democracy
Islamic government
2004
Apr-06
Strong head of
government
2011
Army rule
7%
Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of
government (% agree)
80%
71%
70%
60%
58%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2003
2011
Trends in values
Attitudes toward gender equality
1. A wife must always obey her husband.
2. Men make better political leaders
than women do.
3. University education is more important for
boys than it is for girls.
Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for
gender inequality
80%
68%
70%
60%
60%
50%
55%
47%
40%
30%
21%
20%
16%
10%
0%
Wife must always obey her
husband
Men make better political leaders
2000
2011
University education is more
important for boys
Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality
(% Strongly agree)
80%
71%
70%
64%
69%
63%
60%
50%
42%
40%
33%
29%
30%
25%
20%
8%
10%
0%
A wife should always obey her
husband
Men make better political leaders
2004
2006
2011
University education is more
important for boys
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender
inequality (% Strongly agree)
70%
61%
60%
53%
50%
44%
44%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Men make better political leaders
A wife must always obey her husband
2003
2011
Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest
participations (Correlation coefficients)
.30
.25
.25
.25
.20
.20
.15
.17
.14
.15
.18
.16
.13
.11
.10
.05
.00
.11
Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to
increased gender equality, democracy, and
overall standard of living
100%
90%
93%
95%
Democracy
The overall standard of living
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Equality between women & men
COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of
the West (2011)
100%
90%
90%
89%
85%
84%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Egypt
Iraq
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Summary
1.
2.
3.
4.
Increase in national identity
Decline in support for the shari’a
Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)
Positive implications for national security:
(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on
freedom and democracy
counters tendencies toward
political violence
(2) Positive attitudes toward
Westernization and Western
technology provide a basis
for constructive dialog with the
Arab public