Hi All
The weather looks to continue in this vein for a little while yet in fact I imagine there to be little change until beginning of June. Jet stream has once again returned North. High pressure dominates the picture which can give a variety of weather scenarios depending on what is trapped within the airmass! East and
South Easterly winds are a recurring theme which again is never the best direction but is does mean almost zero chance of rain. So to the coming few days....
Friday
Friday is looking fairly non descript. Temperature and dew point are forecast for around 8/9 degree differential so if there should be some thermals going up to around 3000ft although because of the high pressure most likely to be blue.
There is a very weak cold front predicted to pass through this should help clear the air and provide clearer visibility for the weekend. Wind on Friday is forecast 100/12 on the ground, veering around to 125 and increasing to 25knts at 3500ft. with 21 degrees predicted on the ground and 13 degrees at 5000ft the airmass is quite stable so thermals will be slow to rise and could be broken up by the upper wind.
Saturday
The colder airmass behind the weak front sees a lower temperature at 5000ft - 10 as opposed to 13 degrees. The ground temperature is predicted to be the same as Friday - around 21 degrees. This gives a better rate of change of temperature with height, i.e. higher lapse rate over 2 degrees per thousand feet.
This means thermals will rise quicker but the downside at the moment is the predicted winds 105/15.
Most likely in these conditions we can expect a forecast of 15 gusting 25. For us that is basically straight across the runway. The wind strength is likely to once again make the thermals bitty.
Sunday
This at the moment looks altogether the better day. Temperature at 5000ft drops lower whilst the predicted daytime temperature remains the same. This means a higher lapse rate making the airmass close to unstable. This is good for thermal production! The wind is less 140/10. It stays fairly consistent with height as well so thermalling should be easier.
Summary
Basically Friday looks flyable if you can't make the weekend but if you can then although Saturday will look pretty good from the ground and you will be looking up wishing you were in the air as you drag the kids screaming around the shops, it may in fact be spoilt by the strong wind! Sunday looks a lot a calmer with the chance of even some good cumulus and some good even climbs. X country looks definitely possible!
Booking wise we are full on Saturday to the point if anyone wants to do a couple of Trial Lesson aerotows, please let us know. The governing factor of course maybe the wind with the cub. Sunday we deliberately have only a couple of Trial Lessons, so quiet on the visitor front. Aerotows will be available on both days as will the motorgliders and two seat glider. As always everyone is always welcome but it does make it easier if you can give some indication of intentions so that we can be prepared.
Thanks
Gordon Burkert
GlideSport UK Ltd
Email: Gordon@GlideSportUK.co.uk
Web: www.GlideSportUK.co.uk
Tel: 01386 839568 or 07967 633611