SKILLSINSIGHT: FUTURE EMPLOYMENT DEMAND BY MAJOR
SKILL CATEGORIES
February 2010
1.
Introduction
This SkillsInsight report presents findings from the Department of Labour’s (the
Department) employment forecasts for the medium term (4 years to 2013) and long
term (9 years to 2018) across five broad skill levels using the New Zealand Standard
Classification of Occupations (NZSCO)1. NZSCO is a skills-based classification that
categorises all the occupations that exist in the New Zealand labour market.
Examples of occupations in each of the four broad skill categories used in this report
are:
•
Highly-skilled: Legislators, administrators, managers, and professional
occupations
•
Skilled: Technicians and associate professionals, trade workers
•
Semi-skilled: Clerks, service and sales workers, agriculture and forestry workers
•
Elementary: plant and machinery operators and assemblers, and general
labourers
This report is one of several reports prepared as a supplement to the SkillsInsight
tool. For any questions about the data contained in this report or the analysis
available from the Department of Labour, please contact info@dol.govt.nz.
2.
Medium term employment forecasts to 2013
Employment growth forecast to slow
From 2003 to 2008 New Zealand experienced strong economic growth. As a result of
this, employment grew by 2.6 percent per annum during the economic upturn.
The link between economic growth and employment growth was clearly seen during the
downturn in 2008 to 2009 when employment growth slowed to 0.7 percent. Department
of Labour employment forecasts2 show that total employment growth3 will remain at low
levels of 0.5 percent per annum until 2013 due to the slowdown in economic activity
across various sectors.
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2
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For occupational classification structure refer to New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations, 1999
Manual
Department of Labour forecasts, September 2009.
Employment growth refers to annual average employment growth. Annual years are March ended years
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Strong employment growth for some workers
Even though the Department’s employment forecasts show a relatively smaller growth
for total employment in the medium term, employment of highly-skilled workers and
skilled-associate4 workers is expected to experience strong growth compared with
workers with other occupational skill levels.
Figure 1: Historical (2003 – 2008 & 2008 – 2009) and forecast (2008 – 2013)
annual average employment growth, for March years by occupational skill
levels
Annual average growth (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
2008−09
Total (all
occupations)
Semi−skilled
2003−2008
Elementary
Skilled−trades
Skilled−associates
Highly−skilled
occupations
-10.0
2008−2013
Source: Department of Labour Employment Estimates and Forecasts
Industries with a high proportion of highly-skilled and skilled-associate workers are
likely to be less affected in the medium term compared with industries that employ a
high proportion of skilled-trades, semi-skilled, and elementary level workers.
Job losses for some workers
Recessionary periods usually more heavily affect those industries employing skilledtrades, semi-skilled, and elementary level workers. This factor and declining shares of
some occupations, have contributed to the forecast decline in these skill categories.
In the year ended March 2009, when the economy was experiencing recessionary
pressures, skilled-trades workers were affected more than any other skill group, with
employment declining by 9.1 percent. The manufacturing, construction and retail trade
industries contributed most to the job losses in the skilled-trades workers.
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Trends in employment growth for skilled-associate workers and skilled-trade workers were markedly
different. As a result, these two groups are shown separately in this report.
2
However, when these industries start to emerge from the recession, skilled-trades and
semi-skilled workers will experience less of a decline in employment in the medium
term to 2013. The Department’s forecasts suggest a 5.2 percent decrease in
employment per annum for skilled-trades workers to 2013 which is slightly better than
the 2008 to 2009 period.
3.
Longer term employment forecasts to 2018
Employment forecast is for modest change
While employment levels are expected to fall for a number of occupations in the
medium term, employment forecasts through to 2018 are for modest declines in these
occupations. Employment for skilled-trades workers, for example, is expected to decline
by 5.2 percent per annum in the medium term to 2013, but this decline reduces to 3.0
percent per annum when viewed over the longer term to 2018.
Figure 2: Historical (2003−2008) and forecast (2008−2013 & 2008−2018)
annual average employment growth, for March years by occupational skill
levels
Annual average growth (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
2003−2008
2008−2013
Total (all
occupations)
Elementary
Semi−skilled
Skilled−trades
Skilled−associates
occupations
-10.0
Highly−skilled
-8.0
2008−2018
Source: Department of Labour Employment Estimates and Forecasts
4.
Drivers of future growth
The growth forecast for workers in some categories is being driven by a combination of
factors. Examples of drivers include:
• A shift in industrial structure
• Technological advances that can act as complements for highly skilled labour but
are a substitute for lesser skilled workers
• An ageing population leading to greater demand for some services.
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Specialised managers driving growth in highly-skilled workers
The growth for highly-skilled workers is being driven by strong demand for specialised
managers, with an expected increase of 73,000 workers over five years from 2008 (a
growth rate of 6.1 percent per annum). This is an increase from the recent employment
growth experienced in this occupation group over the last five years to 2008 of 4.1
percent.
Specialised managers include individuals who manage a specific activity and are not
restricted to those who manage other staff. They are also spread across a wide range of
industries including marketing and business management services, accommodation,
supermarket and grocery stores and real estate agents.
Figure 3: Forecast employment growth for selected highly-skilled occupations
(Absolute value, 2008−2013)
Specialised managers
Business professionals
Computing professionals
Senior business
administrators
Architects, engineers and
related professionals
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Forecast number of workers
Source: Department of Labour forecasts
One possible explanation for the growth in this occupation group may be a shift in the
way in which workers report their occupation title as well as an increase in job titles
which relate to management. In recent years there has been marked growth across a
number of detailed occupations including sales and/or marketing managers,
administration managers and advertising and public relations managers.
Skilled-associate workers will also grow
Skilled-associate workers are also expected to experience above average employment
growth through to 2013. The growth will be most pronounced for writers, artists,
entertainment and sports associate professionals, social work associate professionals
(e.g. social workers, probation workers, teacher aides) and finance and sales associate
professionals (e.g. sales representatives, business services representative).
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Small overall growth for elementary level workers
The small projected growth of elementary level workers is being driven by demand for
building caretakers, labourers and packers, and freight handlers. In contrast,
agricultural, earthmoving and other materials-handling equipment operators and
assemblers are all expected to experience a decline in employment through to 2013.
5.
Drivers of future declines
Decline in the building and construction industry is driving changes in skilledtrades workers
Job losses are expected to occur across the majority of skilled-trades occupations in the
medium term to 2013. Occupations likely to be particularly hard hit are those within the
building construction industry. This includes building frame and related trades workers,
with an expected decline of 3,000 employees and building finishers and related trades
workers with an expected loss of 4,000 jobs. This reflects the downturn in the housing
market over the past year with a 49 percent drop in the number of new dwellings
authorised since June 2007.
Figure 4: Forecast employment for selected skilled-trades workers (Absolute
value, 2008 to 2013)
Building finishers and related trade workers
Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related workers
Metal moulders, sheet metal and related workers
Cabinetmakers and related workers
Food and related product processing trades workes
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
-
Forecast number of workers
Source: Department of Labour forecasts
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Semi–skilled workers – declines across a range of occupations
Semi–skilled workers are also likely to experience job losses in the medium term to
2013. The most affected occupations are secretaries and keyboard operators, cashiers,
tellers and related clerks and housekeeping and restaurant service workers. The
exception to this trend is personal care workers (e.g. ambulance officers, caregivers,
nurse aides) who are expected to experience strong employment growth over this
period.
Some industries are feeling recessionary pressures more than others, with a decline in
the share of some occupational groups within some industries. The decline in
occupational share is often due to changing work practices that are driven by
technological developments and the need to improve efficiency.
6.
Summary
After strong growth from 2003 to 2008, employment growth is expected to be modest
through to 2013. However, it is forecast to remain strong for some groups of workers,
particularly those in highly–skilled occupations.
The forecasts indicate that employment growth will be lower in the medium term to
2013, and will start to increase in the longer term to 2018.
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