INVESTMENT,
INVESTMENT, PROFIT MARGINS
AND CASH POSITIONS IN INDUSTRY,
INDUSTRY,
CONSTRUCTION AND WHOLESALE TRADE
Tuesday 10 January 2012
DGS
Sectoral Surveys and
Statistics Directorate
4th Quarter 2011
Quarterly synthetic indicators
(financial situation, construction, wholesale trade)
Investment, profit margins and cash position synthetic indicator
120
The synthetic indicator for investment, profit margins
and cash positions stood at 98 in Q4 2011 after 99 in the
previous quarter.
110
100
The synthetic indicator for construction improved to 98 in
Q4 2011 after 96 the previous quarter.
90
The synthetic indicator for wholesale trade stood at 97 in
Q4 2011 compared to 96 the previous quarter.
80
70
.
60
Q4/01 Q4/02 Q4/03 Q4/04 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/07 Q4/08 Q4/09 Q4/10 Q4/11
Investment, profit margins and cash positions indicator
Synthetic indicator for construction
Synthetic indicator for wholesale trade
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
Q4/01
Q4/02
Q4/03
Q4/04
Q4/05
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Q4/10
60
Q4/11
Q4/01 Q4/02 Q4/03 Q4/04 Q4/05 Q4/06 Q4/07 Q4/08 Q4/09 Q4/10 Q4/11
Construction
BUSINESS SENTIMENT INDICATORS
Investment, profit margins and cash positions
Construction
Wholesale trade
Wholesale trade
Q3/ 10
Q4/ 10
Q1/ 11
Q2/ 11
103
104
102
103
99
98
95
96
99
98
96
98
110
109
112
104
96
97
BANQUE DE FRANCE - DGS – DESS – SEEC – + 33 1 42 92 29 39 – Quarterly Business Survey published on 10 January 2012
Q3/ 11
Q4/ 11
1
Period under review: Q4/2011
QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY
Investment, profit margins and cash positions in Industry
Cash positions in industry appeared less satisfactory than in the previous quarter, slightly below their long-term average. Investment
spending continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previously. Forecasts indicate that investment should continue to rise in the
coming quarter. Profit margins contracted very slightly. Gross operating profits remained stable compared with the previous quarter.
Investment
Cash positions
Balance of opinion, sa
Balance of opinion, sa
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
5
10
0
-5
5
-10
0
-15
-20
-5
-25
-10
-30
Past investment
Trend
Investment forecast
Long-term average since 1991
End-of-quarter position
Trend
Long-term average since 1991
Total margins
Gross operating profit
Balance of opinion, sa
Balance of opinion, sa
2
15
0
10
-2
5
-4
0
-6
-5
-8
-10
-10
-15
-12
-20
-14
-25
-16
-30
-18
-35
Change compared with the previous quarter
Trend
Long-term average since 1991
Change compared with the previous quarter
Trend
Long-term average since 1991
Total Industry
Q3/ 10
Q4/ 10
Q1/ 11
Q2/ 11
Q3/ 11
Q4/ 11
Investment
Change compared with the previous quarter
10
8
10
9
6
3
Forecast for the next quater
12
20
11
12
7
6
Cash positions
15
18
20
19
14
11
Total margins (quarterly change)
-2
-4
-4
-2
-4
-2
Export margins (quarterly change)
-3
-3
-4
-4
-2
-1
4
4
3
4
1
-1
Gross operating profit (quarterly change)
BANQUE DE FRANCE - DGS – DESS – SEEC – + 33 1 42 92 29 39 – Quarterly Business Survey published on 10 January 2012
2
Period under review: Q4/2011
QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY
Construction
Activity in the construction sector improved in the quarter, both in the civil engineering and building sectors. Order books remained
at a satisfactory level. Business leader expectations point to a deceleration of the activity.
Construction activity
Construction order books
Balance of opinion, sa
Balance of opinion, sa
80
40
60
20
40
0
20
-20
0
-40
Q4/05
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Q4/10
-20
Q4/05
Q4/11
Past activity
Long-term average since 1996
Trend
Forecasts
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Level of order books
Building activity
Q4/10
Q4/11
Trend
Building order books
Balance of opinion, sa
Balance of opinion, sa
80
40
60
20
40
0
20
-20
0
-40
Q4/05
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Q4/10
-20
Q4/05
Q4/11
Past activity
Long-term average since 1996
Trend
Forecasts
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Level of order books
Civil engineering activity
Balance of opinion, sa
45
80
30
60
15
40
0
20
-15
0
-30
-20
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Q4/10
Long-term average since 1996
Trend
Forecasts
Building
Civil engineering
Past activity
Outlook
Level of order books
Past activity
Outlook
Level of order books
Past activity
Outlook
Level of order books
-40
Q4/05
Q4/11
Past activity
Total Construction
Q4/11
Trend
Balance of opinion, sa
100
Q4/06
Q4/10
Civil engineering order books
60
-45
Q4/05
Q4/09
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Level of order books
Q3/ 10
11
14
11
12
14
13
2
14
-4
Q4/ 10
-2
25
11
-1
25
13
-7
16
0
Q1/ 11
27
9
16
25
10
19
39
13
5
BANQUE DE FRANCE - DGS – DESS – SEEC – + 33 1 42 92 29 39 – Quarterly Business Survey published on 10 January 2012
Q2/ 11
5
13
15
5
13
18
4
13
6
Q4/09
Q4/10
Q4/11
Trend
Q3/ 11
6
11
14
6
12
14
1
10
8
Q4/ 11
15
9
15
14
8
16
20
9
13
3
Period under review: Q4/2011
QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY
Wholesale trade
Purchase and sales volumes rose on the previous quarter, but at a slower pace compared with their long-term average. The level of
order books remained unchanged and inventories appeared to be at normal levels. Forecasts point to a slight improvement in
activity in the coming quarter.
Purchase volumes
Sales volumes
Balance of opinion, sa
Balance of opinion, sa
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
Q4/05
Q4/06
Q4/07
Purchase volumes
Q4/08
Forecasts
Q4/09
Trend
Q4/10
-40
Q4/05
Q4/11
Long-term average since 1996
Q4/06
Q4/07
Sales volumes
Purchase and sales prices
Q4/08
Forecasts
Q4/09
Trend
Q4/11
Long-term average since 1996
Inventories and order books
Balance of opinion, sa
Balance of opinion, sa
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
Q4/05
Q4/10
Q4/06
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Purchase prices
Sales prices
Trend
Trend
Total wholesale trade
Purchase volume : change / previous quarter
Sales volume : change / previous quarter
Purchase prices : change / previous quarter
Sales prices : change / previous quarter
Level of order books
Inventory level
Sales : outlook / next quarter
Q4/10
Q4/11
-40
Q4/05
Q3/ 10
18
23
17
12
10
9
16
Q4/06
Q4/ 10
6
12
22
16
10
4
20
Q4/07
Q4/08
Q4/09
Q4/10
Inventory level
Level of order books
Inventory trend
Trend of order books
Q1/ 11
24
20
17
7
14
8
18
BANQUE DE FRANCE - DGS – DESS – SEEC – + 33 1 42 92 29 39 – Quarterly Business Survey published on 10 January 2012
Q2/ 11
12
15
16
4
6
1
11
Q3/ 11
10
8
4
-8
-2
2
8
Q4/11
Q4/ 11
3
5
0
-6
1
3
11
4
Period under review: Q4/2011
QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY
Methodological note
Balance of opinions
The balance of opinions is calculated as the sum total of positive and negative opinions given by business
managers, weighted by the number of staff in the company and adjusted for the value added of each sector for
cash positions (average staff numbers for construction, turnover net of tax for wholesale trade). A positive
balance of opinions indicates that the majority of respondents consider that there has been an increase in the
measured variable.
The balance of opinions, whose value is between -200 and +200, reflects the aggregate level of positive and
negative replies from business managers surveyed using a rating scale with seven gradations (three gradations
either side of the normal level).
Series
All of the series (seasonally adjusted data, trends and composite indicators) are available on the Banque de
France website.
Investment, profit margins and cash positions in Industry:
http://webstat.banque-france.fr/fr/browseTable.do?node=5384285&start=&end=&snapshot=&trans=N&vf=&dvfreq=Q
Construction: http://webstat.banque-france.fr/fr/browse.do?node=5384373
Wholesale trade: http://webstat.banque-france.fr/fr/browse.do?node=5384308
Seasonal adjustment
The series are additively seasonally adjusted using the X12-ARIMA method. The unadjusted series (U) is broken
down into three components: trend/cycle (T), seasonal factors (S) and irregular (I). The seasonally-adjusted
series published correspond to the unadjusted series without the seasonal factors component (U-S), which is
also the sum total of the trend and the irregular (T+I).
Investment and cash positions indicator for industrial firms, and business sentiment indicators for
construction and for wholesale trade
These indicators summarise all of the answers to the quarterly survey on the financial situation of industrial
firms, on construction and on wholesale trade. They are centered around 100 (long-term average) and have a
standard deviation of 10. Technically, they correspond to the first factor axis from a static factor analysis of
aggregate series.
Outlook
The replies to the questions on the outlook for production and activity over the coming month (T+1/T) are
adjusted for identified biases. An econometric equation calibrates the two outlook variables (Production and
Activity) in relation to the actual lagged variables.
Long-term average
The long-term average is calculated on the maximum length of the series.
For Industry, the long-term average has been calculated since 1991, for Construction and Wholesale trade,
since 1996.
French Classification of Economic Activities (NAF révision 2)
NAF Rév. 2, 2008 replaced, on 1 January 2008, NAF Rév.1, 2003.
Access items and their description broken down by level :
Level 1
21 sections
Level 2
88 divisions
Level 3
272 groups
Level 4
615 classes
BANQUE DE FRANCE - DGS – DESS – SEEC – + 33 1 42 92 29 39 – Quarterly Business Survey published on 10 January 2012
Level 5
732 sub-classes
5