Understanding Your Investment and Retirement Income Options Lorraine Heseltine January 28, 2016 UBC Faculty Pension Plan Agenda • • • • Plan Overview Retirement Income Options Investment Choices Navigating the Faculty Pension Plan Website / Sun Life Website Faculty Pension Plan 2 Money Accumulation Plan EE$ ER$ EMPLOYMENT YEARS Investment Fund(s) PRODUCES Lump-sum $ amount RETIREMENT Exchange Stay invested Flexible income payment Lifetime annuity 3 Board of Trustees • Eight Trustees • Four elected by members of the Plan • Four appointed by the Board of Governors • Faculty Members 4 Board of Trustees Mr. Joost Blom Chair Faculty of Law Dr. Robert Heinkel Vice Chair Sauder School of Business Dr. Joy Begley Member Sauder School of Business Dr. Joyce Boon (Professor Emeritus) Member Barber Arts & Sciences, UBCO Dr. R. Kenneth Carty (Professor Emeritus) Member Political Science Dr. Joanne Emerman (Professor Emeritus) Member Department of Cellular and Physiological Sciences Dr. Lorenzo Garlappi Member Sauder School of Business Mr. Vijay Verma (Researcher Emeritus) Member TRIUMF 5 Plan’s Mission Statement The main purpose of the Plan is to provide a wellmanaged, cost-effective retirement plan, designed to assist members in meeting their financial responsibilities, both leading up to retirement and, if members choose, through retirement. 6 Plan Principles for Investment Management • Maximize returns at a level of risk suitable for each Investment choice • Risk should be managed through broad diversification • Costs should be kept to a minimum 7 Cost of Investing • Investment manager expertise in security selection, research • Operating expenses (custodial charges, banking fees) • How are these fees charged? 8 Fees & Expenses as of December 31, 2015 Management Expense Ratio (MER) Expenses (%) * Balanced Fund Annualized Percentage 0.51 Bond Fund 0.37 Canadian Equity Fund 0.49 Foreign Equity Fund Short Term Investment Fund 0.51 0.20 *includes Fund Management Fees & Operating Expenses 9 Online – Your Sun Life Account 10 Management Expense Ratio $100,000 @ 6% per year for 20 years MER 0.50% 1.50% 2.50% Average Cost Per Year $1,447 $3,977 $6,087 $291,776 $241,171 $198,979 Net Value After Fees 11 Growth of $10,000 over 50 years 8.0% Annual Return Less 2.5% Fees Gross Investment Return $196,974 Portion to Investor $135,420 Portion to Fees $61,554 (45% of what Investor receives) 12 Fees: Things to Consider Fees have a major impact on your net return, so make sure you know what you are paying. • MERs, Administrative Fees, Buy/Sell Transactions, Termination Fees, etc. • Reduced MER for higher account value • Fees are necessary and appropriate if they reflect the returns, advice, and service you receive 13 Registered Pension Plans • Canada Revenue Agency - Income Tax Act • Provincial Pension Legislation - BC Pension Benefits Standards Act 14 Account Balances • Non-Locked-In funds (pre-1993) – No restrictions on withdrawals after termination or retirement – Includes RRSP, Voluntary Contributions • Locked-In funds (post-1992) – Must be used to provide an income for your lifetime 15 Why Provide Retirement Options? • Trustees’ belief that their responsibilities to members do not end at the date of retirement • Investment Objective of the Plan to earn a real return on the Balanced Fund such that a “typical” member would be able to achieve a reasonable income replacement ratio (i.e. 60%-70%) based on their final year’s salary. 16 UBC Retirement Income Options FPP Account Applicable to all or part of your total account balance Defer Decision Variable Payment Life Annuity Flexible Income Options RRIF/LIF-Type Payments 17 Leave Funds in the Plan Defer Decision • Applicable to all or part of account balance • You continue to choose investment fund(s) • Okay until Dec. 1st of the year you reach age 71 • Elect any of the other options at anytime • Full Account balance is paid on death • Cash withdrawals from non-locked-in 18 Leave Funds in the Plan Defer Decision Things To Consider: • Gives time to evaluate your retirement lifestyle and need for income • A good way to defer taxes • Continue to build your account balance by taking advantage of tax sheltered investment growth • Enjoy the plan’s low management and administration fees 19 Leave Funds in the Plan Defer Decision Things To Consider: • Withdrawals do NOT qualify for: (a) $2,000 Pension Income Tax Deduction (b) Spousal Pension Income Splitting 20 UBC Retirement Income Options FPP Account Applicable to all or part of your total account balance Defer Decision Variable Payment Life Annuity Flexible Income Options RRIF/LIF-Type Payments 21 Understanding Annuities Fixed Payment Life Annuity vs. Variable Payment Life Annuity 22 Understanding Annuities What determines the monthly payment? 1. The purchase amount $ (dollars exchanged) 2. An actuarial factor Your age (your spouse’s age) at commencement Form of pension elected Future investment rate of return assumption • Long term interest rate environment (insurance company) 23 Illustration of the Relationship Between Market Interest Rates and the Annuity Amount Interest Rate Monthly Annuity 7% 3,676 6% 3,378 5% 3,087 4% 2,805 3% 2,534 Based on a joint annuity, member and spouse both age 65 and using a lump sum of $500,000, payable for as long as either is alive. 24 Fixed Payment Life Annuity • Monthly payment amount never changes • Retiree risk – purchasing power • Interest rates at time of purchase impacts amount of monthly pension • Insurance Company reaps the rewards of excess investment/interest earnings 25 Fixed Payment Life Annuity • Fixed payment – no opportunity for you to reap the rewards for excess investment earnings ******** • Variable payment – opportunity to reap the rewards for excess investment earnings 26 Variable Payment Life Annuity How It Works! 1. Your Purchase Amount is invested in the Balanced Fund for the Retiree Group 27 Variable Payment Life Annuity How It Works! 2. You choose: • the future investment rate assumption in determining the initial monthly amount (4% or 7%); and • the form of pension payment 28 Variable Payment Life Annuity How It Works! 3. Your monthly pension amount will be adjusted once per year (each April 1st) by the difference between: – the previous year’s ACTUAL rate of return in the Balanced Fund*; and – the ASSUMED rate of return (4% or 7%) *Note: there is also an adjustment to reflect the mortality experience of the group. 29 How do annual increases/decreases work? You choose a 4% or 7% future annual growth rate assumption. Investment Return + Mortality Experience 4% 7% 12% 8% 5% 9% 5% 2% 2% -2% -5% -2% -6% -9% 30 2015 Adjustment – 4% Option 2014 ACTUAL Balanced Fund Return less adjustment for mortality experience 10.03% ASSUMED Return when pension started - 4.00% Pension increase on April 2015 6.03% Monthly pension at April 1, 2014 $1,000.00 Monthly pension at April 1, 2015 $1,060.30 31 Comparison of 4% & 7% VPLA - Payment History from 1996- $500,000 Purchase Price 4% Annuity 1996 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ACCUMULATED: # of Years payment decreased: $3,207 $4,536 $4,162 $4,476 $4,646 $4,958 $5,397 $5,277 $4,355 $4,607 $4,794 $4,682 $4,904 $5,290 $5,609 $1,088,001 5 7% Annuity $4,118 $4,909 $4,378 $4,575 $4,614 $4,785 $5,062 $4,812 $3,860 $3,969 $4,015 $3,811 $3,880 $4,068 $4,193 …. $1,066,665 6 32 Decisions To Make When Choosing the VPLA • Do I use all or a portion of my account balance to purchase the VPLA? • Future Investment Return Assumption? (4% or 7%) • Payable during your lifetime only or during your spouse’s as well? 33 Choose An Annuity Option Options Single Life Initial Monthly Payment $3,965 Joint & Survivor • 60% to Spouse on your death $3,630 • 100% to Spouse on your death $3,435 Based on a 7% Annuity choice with a lump sum of $500,000 at age 65 - Spouse is same age 34 What Happens When my Spouse and I die? • An annuity is an insurance type of arrangement • Normally payments cease on death - those who die early subsidize those who live longer 35 What Happens When my Spouse and I die? 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mortality Forecast 5 YRS 30 YRS 36 How Long Will I Be Retired? 2015 Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index 37 What Happens When my Spouse and I die? • However, you can take a reduced pension to guarantee that a minimum # of years payments will be made. • Options are a minimum guarantee of 5, 10, or 15 years of payments in event of early death • Regardless, the pension would never cease while you are living 38 Choose An Annuity Option Adding a 15 Year Guarantee Period Options With No Guarantee 15 Years Guarantee Cost $3,965 $3,690 $275 60% to spouse on your death $3,630 $3,615 $15 100% to spouse on your death $3,435 $3,415 $20 Single Life Joint & Survivor Form Based on a 7% Annuity choice with a lump sum of $500,000 at age 65 - Spouse is same age 39 Planning your Retirement Income: Thinking Outside the Box Who is your Pension For? • You? • You and your Spouse? • You, your spouse and your children? 40 Probability of a healthy 65-year old living until… Age Chance that at Least One Member of A Couple will survive until age: 80 91% 90 45% Source: Statistics Canada Catalogue No.84-537-XIE 41 VPLA: Things to Consider • Security – you know your income is for life • Simplicity – doesn’t require active management on your part • Allows you to participate in the performance of the Balanced Fund to gain inflation protection • You can choose between a conservative or aggressive investment assumption *** • No opportunity to make changes during severe market downturns • Early death could result in less than your account value being paid 42 QUICKIE QUIZ • If there are 3 apples and you take away 2, how many do you have? 43 UBC Retirement Income Options FPP Account Applicable to all or part of your total account balance Defer Decision Variable Payment Life Annuity Flexible Income Options RRIF/LIF-Type Payments 44 Flexible Income Options Source of Funds RRIF-Type LIF-Type Payment Accounts Payment Accounts Non-Locked–In Locked-In Who makes Investment Decisions You You Minimum Withdrawal Yes Yes Maximum Withdrawal No Yes Remaining Account Remaining Account Balance Balance Death Benefit 45 Statutory Minimum / Maximum Age Minimum RRIF + LIF REVISED Minimum (2015 Federal budget) Maximum LIF REVISED Maximum (BC PBSA) 65 4.00% n/a 7.20% 7.38% 70 5.00% n/a 7.90% 8.22% 71 7.38% 5.28% 8.10% 8.45% 75 7.85% 5.82% 9.10% 9.71% 80 8.75% 6.82% 11.50% 12.82% 85 10.33% 8.51% 16.00% 22.40% 90 13.62% 11.92% 20.00% 100.00% 46 How Do RRIF/LIF-Type Payments Work? • Think of a bank account - you have a balance in your account • Investment/Interest earnings added, withdrawals deducted • You determine the monthly income you want to draw • You can change your monthly income payments • (LIF has both yearly minimum and maximum) 47 How Do RRIF/LIF-Type Payments Work? • You can use your spouse’s younger age to calculate minimums • You choose payment frequency—monthly, quarterly, semi-annually or annually • Special lump sum withdrawals are possible throughout the year • You can convert all or part of your balance to annuity at any time 48 Features of FPP RRIF/LIF-Type Payments • You can use all or a portion of your account balance • Your funds remain in the UBC Faculty Pension • Payments are by direct deposit – you choose the 1st of the month the 15th of the month the last day of the month 49 Features of FPP RRIF/LIF-Type Payments • A spouse can continue payments from the plan after death • Statements of Account are produced quarterly • Ad hoc withdrawals and changes to scheduled payments can be made 50 RRIF/LIF-Type Payments: Things to Consider • A way to lower taxes by taking only the minimum • Gain flexibility to vary your income according to your changing needs • Continued compound growth with you choosing the investment fund • Full account balance is paid upon your death to your heirs 51 RRIF/LIF-Type Payments: Things to Consider • Management and administrative fees are modest • You can change to another option at any time • Could exhaust your funds: • Investment Risk plus Longevity Risk 52 RRIF/LIF-Type Payments: Things to Consider Investment Allocation • You control investment of your funds and assume the risk • What is your Investment Time Horizon? • Lower risk tolerance as we get older • Will my money last if I allocate to investments with no risk? 53 What is the best Asset Mix Strategy for making your assets last through retirement? • Would people retiring in previous periods have run out of money? • Which asset mix would have been the best strategy to fund retirement? From Study by Alliance Bernstein, December 2008 54 A 60/40 Portfolio Also Delivered Better Real Outcomes Than Bonds. Cash (Short Term) never lasted 30 Years Lasted 30 Years 74% 15% 60/40 Strategy Bond Strategy Based on a hypothetical portfolio; actual fund performance may differ. Assumed 5% withdrawal for 30 years. Not inflation adjusted. 55 Long-Term Risk • LESS RISKY – Equities combined with Long-term bonds • MORE RISKY – GIC’S – Treasury bills Does not meet retirement objectives (i.e., insufficient returns) 56 Think about your Investment Time Horizon and select your Investment Type Short Term Investment Time Horizon • Money Market or Treasury Bills Medium Term Investment Time Horizon • Government, Corporate Bonds or GICS Long Term Investment Time Horizon • Mutual Funds – Stocks and Bonds 57 Does It Matter? (How Long Will our Money Last?) Assumptions: Initial Investment: $500,000 Monthly Withdrawal: $3,000 Annual Rate of Return From Age 65 Until Age 7.25% 100+ 6.25% 94 5.00% 87 4.00% 84 3.00% 81 58 Balanced Fund NET Returns Over 30 Years • • • • Using net returns from 1986-2015 Initial Balance $500,000 5% withdrawal from 65-70 and per minimum* withdrawal schedule thereafter (*using new minimum rates) Total payments to age 94 = $1,764,370 AGE WITHDRAWAL ANNUAL DATE WITHDRAWAL ACCOUNT BALANCE 65 5.00% $25,000 $531,900 71 5.28% $32,787 $633,701 80 6.82% $66,752 $918,286 85 8.51% $76,736 $947,435 94 18.79% $79,673 $487,517 59 Balanced Fund Annual Returns (Net) 30 Year Track Record - 8.37% 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 11.38% 18.58% 13.58% 2.33% 14.54% 2.66% 9.00% 6.79% -13.45% 14.62% 10.90% 11.93% -0.46% 4.77% 9.37% 16.29% 0.64% 2.62% 7.33% -3.07% 9.58% 22.19% 12.36% 13.18% -0.54% 8.09% 10.86% 17.03% 11.79% 6.09% 60 Balanced Fund NET Returns Over 30 Years • • • • Using net returns in reverse order from 2015-1986 Initial Balance $500,000 5% withdrawal from 65-70 and per minimum* withdrawal schedule thereafter (*using new minimum rates) Total payments to age 94 = $1,485,847 AGE WITHDRAWAL A WITHDRAWAL B ACCOUNT BALANCE 65 $25,000 $25,000 $505,450 71 $32,787 $32,565 $657,781 80 $66,752 $37,350 $536,430 85 $76,736 $55,617 $709,234 94 $79,673 $100,439 $494,925 61 Strategy for Dealing with Market Downturn Early in Retirement • A strategy to deal with having the stock market drop substantially just before or just after you start drawing your income. • Take your cash flow requirements out of a fund that is not market related. i.e. Take it out of Short Term or GIC funds • Taking money out of a fund that is already decreasing in value due to a market correction can be distressing 62 Decumulation Phase RRIF Allocation your asset value ($500,000) Majority of asset ($425,000) 3 Years Income ($75,000) BALANCED FUND GUARANTEED FUNDS 63 Annuity or RRIF/LIF-type? Annuity • • • • • Capital exchanged Lifetime income Sense of security Enhancements No investment choice during economic tsunami • Can’t change RRIF/LIF-type • Capital retained • Growth potential • Investment flexibility • Flexible income • Cash withdrawals (RRIF) • Can convert to an annuity but not required • Longevity risk (RRIF) 64 What Some Advisors Suggest • Start with RRIF/LIF ( Active Phase) • Consider changing part to Life Annuity in late 70’s (Passive Phase) • Interest rates have less impact on annuity pricing than mortality at higher ages • It is best to consult your financial planner who can develop a personalized plan for you 65 Government-Administered Benefits www.servicecanada.gc.ca Old Age Security at age 65 Canada Pension Plan • • • • • • Minimum 10 years in Canada Max = $570.52 per month Can defer to age 70 40 years in Canada = Max Indexed quarterly Non-Resident rules – at least 20 years in Canada • Maximum $1,092.50 Monthly • Indexed annually Clawback on OAS - Net Income • • Starting at $73,756 Ending at $119,398 * new online application Special features • Available from age 60 • Defer until age 70 • Split payment with your spouse (at source) *My Service Canada Account 66 It is NOT all about Income in Retirement! • We need to have access to capital, too! • Where is this money going to come from? 67 Sources of Retirement Income and Capital Home Non-RRSP Savings RRSP Savings Registered Pension Plan (RPP) CPP OAS 68 Accessing Capital • • • • • • Tax-Free Savings Accounts Non Registered Savings Plan RRSPs RRIFs Voluntary contributions to a Faculty Pension Plan Home – Downsize, Home Equity, Credit Line Loan or Reverse Mortgage 69 Tax-Free Savings Accounts • Investment earnings and withdrawals are never taxed • Can invest in Stocks & Bonds, Mutual Funds, GIC’s, etc. • Could help eliminate or reduce clawbacks • Help pay medical expenses in retirement • Fund vacations • A ‘rainy day” fund • A place to invest Age 71 RRIF/LIF minimums *2016: $5,500 70 Reverse Mortgages • Access equity in our home without selling our home • We can receive up to 40% of the value of our home • Home must be fully paid for • Take as a lump sum and/or a monthly income • No tax implications • Repayment is not required until the home is sold 71 Reverse Mortgages - Cautions • High interest rate • Amount owing compounds very quickly, and can significantly reduce your estate • We may need capital from our home to fund nursing/ retirement care home later in life and it may not be there if we have taken a reverse mortgage • Could be most beneficial where time frame is relatively short such as an elderly person/couple wanting to stay at home in later years but need capital to live on. 72 Accessing Capital A separate investment fund for travel expenses will help budget for capital needs in retirement and provide for laddering investments to mature when they are needed (CONTINGENCY SAVINGS) (TRAVEL SAVINGS) -NEW CARS -TRAVEL EXPENSES -HEALTH CARE -UNPLANNED EXPENSES 73 Planning Your Retirement Income What are the Risks? • Longevity • Market Volatility • Insufficient Access to Capital for Contingencies • Inflation 74 Inflation Reduces Purchasing Power Even at Only 2% Per Year Number of years retired Value in today’s dollars 0 $38,500 10 $31,457 20 $25,702 30 $21,000 75 Do We Need 100% Inflation Protection? • 100% is nice to have but is it necessary for retirees? • (child care, rent, tuition fees, mortgage interest, furnishings, entertainment, dining) • BUDGET = • CPP/OAS = • % Indexed = $4,000 $2,000 50% $6,000 $2,000 33% 76 How Much Income Do We Need at Retirement? The goal should be to maintain the same standard of living in retirement as we had before retirement. 77 % of Pre-Retirement Income Needed • It is different for each of us. • How much is the NET Salary Deposit to your bank each month? • What % is being used for living expenses. Do a budget showing your current expenses. • Do another budget estimating your expenses in retirement • The key is to have little or no debt when you retire. It then becomes very easy to adjust your lifestyle to the income you will receive. 78 Tax and Other Savings In Retirement • Lower income means lower taxes • Age 65 tax deduction credit - $7,125 (reduced for earnings from $35,927 and eliminated at $83,427) • $2,000 Pension Income tax deduction credit ($1,000 Provincial) • Deem your pension income to be split with your spouse to reduce taxes 79 Pension Income Splitting • Shift up to 50% of eligible pension income to spouse in a lower tax bracket • Impacts federal income taxes only • Make the election each year when you file your previous year’s tax return • A deemed transfer for tax calculation purposes only • Either or both spouse’s can make the election 80 Income Taxation (BC) Approximate Rates for 2016 • • • • • • • • • • 0% tax on the first $11,474 of income 20.06% on income between $11,474 and $38,210 22.70% on income between $38,210 and $45,282 28.20% on income between $45,282 and $76,421 31.00% on income between $76,421 and $87,741 32.79% on income between $87,741 and $90,563 38.29% on income between $90,563 and $106,543 40.70% on income between $106,543 and $140,388 43.70% on income between $140,388 and $200,000 47.70% on income above $200,000 Only 50% of capital gains are included into income Dividends receive special income tax credits when earned in a taxable account 81 How Federal Taxes Can Be Reduced • Lower overall marginal tax rate • Clawbacks can be reduced or eliminated • Old Age Security Pension • Age 65 Tax Credit ($7,125 in 2016) • Pension Income Tax Credit of $2,000 could be claimed by you and your spouse 82 What is Eligible For Deemed Transfer to Spouse BEFORE 65 Life annuity from pension plan FROM 65 NOT ELIGIBLE Life annuity Cash Withdrawals while deferred RRIF Old age Security LIF Canada Pension Plan 83 Other Savings In Retirement • Higher Property Tax Credit • You can defer paying property taxes in BC and pay only simple interest. Let the kids worry about it! • Lower ICBC Premiums after 65 • Buses, ferries, eye examinations – all cheaper! • Shopping (senior discount days), movies, hotels ********* • You pay more for extended health/dental 84 UBC FPP Retirement Income Options FPP Account Applicable to all or part of your total account balance Defer Decision Variable Payment Life Annuity Flexible Income Options RRIF/LIF-Type Payments 85 External Options • Non-locked-in RRSP • Locked-in retirement account (LIRA) • Life annuity - Fixed payments - Variable payments - Indexed payments • RRIF (Non-locked-in funds) • LIF (Locked-in funds) • GMWB- Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit Plans 86 Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit Plans (GMWB) • Combine life annuity with RRIF. Pension for life and full death benefit for remaining account balance • Guaranteed to receive 5% of account balance at retirement for life even if you run out of money • Possible to receive higher guaranteed payment amounts every 3 years at reset points • Full death benefit of market value of fund at anytime 87 Downsides to GMWB • Higher management fee by about 1% • The 5% guarantee will be badly outpaced by inflation if and when your money runs out • Few are likely to run out of money with a balanced fund approach • Consult your financial planner/advisor for details on how they work. 88 EXTERNAL OPTIONS • Unsolicited financial advice • Not affiliated with the Faculty Pension Plan 89 EXTERNAL OPTIONS Things to Consider • Allows you to gain access to more investment options • You could set up a “self-directed” plan • Professional investment advice is often available • More lifetime annuity options • Management and administrative fees are usually higher than FPP 90 UBC OPTIONS Things to Consider • Management and administrative fees are usually lower • You can access the same investment funds you are already familiar with • The FPP is closely supervised by Trustees • We are not financial advisors 91 FLEXIBILITY • Use all or part of your account balance for any of the choices • Elect to transfer all or part of your account balance to a financial institution. • You can re-transfer funds back into the plan at a later date • You can transfer RRSP funds into your UBC Faculty Pension Plan account 92 Transfers From Other Plans • All funds from other registered plans are accepted, including: – RRSP’S (excluding spousal) – RPP’S • There are no tax consequences • Check if any transfer fees from current provider 93 QUICKIE QUIZ Mary’s father has five daughters: 1. Nana 2. Nene 3. Nini 4. Nono 5. What is the name of the 5th daughter? 94 Working at UBC Beyond Age 65 WITHOUT Starting a UBC Pension: • Pension contributions continue until age 71. • No Reduction for part-time with 15 years service • Group Benefit Coverage continues except: – – – IRP + Spousal Life Basic Life reduces to 1 times salary CPP & OAS are payable 95 Working at UBC Beyond Age 65 PLUS Starting a UBC Pension: • Pension contributions cease • Group benefits cease • Option to continue health and dental on employee pay all basis • CPP & OAS are payable 96 Services of a Financial Planner • Physician – Physical Health • Financial Planner – Financial Health 97 Services of a Financial Planner • • • • • • • Investment allocation advice Tax planning Do you want to leave an estate? Monthly budgeting Debt management Management of your non-registered assets Develop a Long Term Financial Plan for you 98 Creating a Financial Plan • A Will and Financial Plan are both essential • Identify what you own and what you owe • What is your cash flow – income and expenses • Identify your tolerance for investment risk • Determine what standard of living you expect in retirement and what your expenses will be • Recommend investments that will ensure you meet your goals • A Financial Planner can help 99 Creating a Financial Plan Knowing the path you are going to take to reach your financial goals is as essential as if you were taking a trip. 100 Financial Planners • Should be able to assist you in pension decisions in context of an overall financial plan • Many different types of compensation • Article: Choosing a Financial Planner • Additional resources: www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance www.GetSmarterAboutMoney.ca http://www.financialplanningforcanadians.ca/ 101 Making Investment Choices • Investing 101 • Faculty Plan fund options • Things to consider when choosing an investment strategy that is right for you • What is risk? • How often should I change my investment allocation? • Common mistakes advisors say investors make 102 General Classes of Investments Investing 101 Rates of Return Equities Bonds GICs Money Market Variability of returns 103 RISK / REWARD HIGH ABOVE AVERAGE MEDIUM LOW EMERGING MARKETS CONVERTIBLE DEBENTURES BLUE CHIP STOCKS T-BILLS PENNY STOCKS SMALL CAP STOCKS GOVERNMENT BONDS GIC’S FUTURES WARRANTS CORPORATE BONDS CANADA SAVINGS BONDS INCOME REAL ESTATE PREMIUM SAVING A/C’S DERIVATIVES SPECULATIVE REAL ESTATE 104 FPP Long Term Investment Objectives • Capital Preservation Versus Speculation • Professional Investment Managers – Buy/Sell Securities • Performance Objectives • Performance Assessment 105 Long Term Asset Class Returns Investment Results (Growth of $100 from December 1949 to December 2014) $90,000 Value of $100 (Annualized Rate of Return) US Equities in $C: $112,162 (11.4%) Canada Equities: $47,113 (9.9%) $9,000 Bonds: $11,329 (7.6%) T-Bills: $3,160 (5.5%) $900 Inflation $1,022 (3.6%) $90 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 106 Rates of Return FPP Investment Funds Canadian & Foreign Equity Funds Balanced Fund Bond Fund Short-Term Investment Fund Variability of Returns 107 Investment Policy-Asset Mix Asset Class Balanced Fund Bond Fund Canadian Equities 20.0% Global Equities 30.0% Real Estate (CAD) 10.0% Real Return Bonds 8.0% 20.0% Government and Corporate Bonds 32.0% 80.0% Canadian Equity Fund Foreign Equity Fund GICs 100.0% 100.0% Short term debt securities Assets (Millions) Dec 31, 2015 Short -Term Investment Fund (STIF) 100.0% $1,652.1 $50.5 $125.8 $125.8 $34.3 $16.6 108 Investment Performance 109 Which Fund Should I Invest In? Investment Fund 2010 Gross Return 2011 Gross Return 2012 Gross Return Balanced 9.98% 3.18% 10.14% Bond 8.61% 10.52% 4.37% Can. Equity 17.97% -7.95% 11.52% Foreign Equity 6.27% -2.14% 16.46% Short Term 0.58% 1.25% 1.26% 110 Which Fund Should I Invest In? Investment Fund 2010 Gross Return 2011 Gross Return 2012 Gross Return 2013 Gross Return Balanced 9.98% 3.18% 10.14% 13.77% Bond 8.61% 10.52% 4.37% -3.58% Can. Equity 17.97% -7.95% 11.52% 20.33% Foreign Equity 6.27% -2.14% 16.46% 36.81% Short Term 0.58% 1.25% 1.26% 1.36% 111 Which Fund Should I Invest In? Investment Fund 2008 Gross Return 2009 Gross Return 2010 Gross Return 2011 Gross Return Balanced -13.00% 12.46% 9.98% 3.18% Bond 2.73% 10.47% 8.61% 10.52% Can. Equity -30.69% 30.67% 17.97% -7.95% Foreign Equity -26.48% 10.49% 6.27% -2.14% Short Term 3.12% 0.46% 0.58% 1.25% 112 What does this tell us? • Last year’s returns are not next year’s returns • You would be playing a futile guessing game if you made long term investment decisions based on short term returns • Long term investment decisions are just that – long term and should be not be changed in response to short term market swings 113 Long Term Averages Can Be Misleading 10 Year Gross Averages to December 31, 2012 Balanced 7.06% Bond 6.26% Can. Equity 10.28% Foreign Equity 3.12% Short Term 2.31% 114 Averages Can Be Misleading: 10 Year Gross Average Returns 10 Year Gross Averages to December 31, 2007 Balanced 7.15% Bond 6.07% Can. Equity 10.48% Foreign Equity 3.38% Short Term 4.35% 115 What does this tell us? • Be wary of average returns - one year’s unique results can skew long term averages • Our investment decision needs to be based on our tolerance for variability in returns. • Look at long term returns but look at the long term pattern to see if it fits with your risk tolerance. 116 Asset Class Annual Performance 117 GROSS Annual Returns: Finding your Risk Tolerance (Funds With Stocks) Year Equity (CDN) Equity (Foreign) Balanced 2006 19.01% 20.22% 13.96% 2007 11.52% -9.74% 3.19% 2008 -30.69% -26.84% -13.00% 2009 30.67% 10.50% 12.46% 2010 17.97% 6.27% 9.98% 2011 -7.95% -2.14% 3.18% 2012 11.52% 16.46% 10.14% 2013 20.33% 36.81% 13.77% 2014 10.72% 16.23% 11.44% 2015 -6.75% 19.55% 6.56% 10 Yr Av. 6.10% 7.33% 6.87% 118 Advantages of a Balanced Fund: Risk is Reduced by Diversification • • • • • • • Asset Class (Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate) Countries Investment Manager Styles Industries and Sectors Government and Corporate Bonds Long Term and Short Term Maturities Currencies 119 Your Most Important Decision • The most important decision you have to make is to decide what % of your pension fund will be invested in stocks and what % will be invested in fixed income (Bonds, Real Estate, etc.) • what will your Balanced Fund look like? • Are you comfortable with the asset allocation of the FPP Balanced Fund or would you prefer to build your own Balanced Fund? 120 Balanced Fund Target Asset Allocation Canadian Real Return Bonds 8.0% Canadian Real Estate 10.0% Canadian Equities 20.0% US Equities 6.0% Fixed Income 32.0% * Global Equities 24.0% Global Equities includes investments in both U.S. Equities and Non-North American Equities 121 Some Possible Asset Allocations 80% High‐risk tolerance 35% 65% Aggressive 50% Risk Acceptable volatility (long-term) 20% 50% Moderate 65% 20% 80% 35% Conservative Equities Risk‐averse Fixed‐income securities Potential Return 122 Asset Allocation Tool Investment Risk Profiler 123 Your Results 124 Asset Mix 125 You Can Build Your Own Balanced Fund What is the asset allocation of your Balanced Fund? Canadian Equities Global Equities Bonds Real Estate ?% ?% ?% ?% • If you want real estate exposure, you must have some of your assets in the Balanced Fund 126 Don’t Forget to Rebalance! • Rebalancing back to your original asset allocation at least annually is the key to staying on track! • Do this regardless of market conditions • Investment advisor can be very helpful in developing an investment plan 127 The Importance of Re-Balancing Canadian Equity Foreign Equity Bond Fund End of 2002 20% 20% 60% End of 2007 32% 18% 50% 128 The Importance of Re-Balancing 129 Building Your Own Balanced Fund Which Equity Fund? • CANADIAN EQUITY FUND OR • FOREIGN EQUITY FUND 130 Why Consider Investing Outside of Canada? • Narrowness of Canadian Market (Energy, Materials & Financials) • Canada is only 3% of world market – (could be missing out on 97% of the worlds investment opportunities) • Small # of firms dominate Canadian Market (example of Nortel – 30% in 2000) 131 Investing Outside Canada Offers Access to More Types of Companies and Stronger Economies — Diversification Top 3 Sector Weights As of December 31, 2015 TSX S&P 500 MSCI EAFE Financials 38.3% Information Technology 20.7% Financials 20.8% Energy 18.5% Financials 16.5% Information Technology 14.2% 9.5% Health Care 15.2% Health Care 13.5% Total 52.4% Total 48.5% Materials Total 66.3% 132 Why Consider Investing Outside of Canada? 133 Making your Investment Choice: Things to Consider • • • • The Nature of Faculty Pension Plan Investments Investment Time Horizon Tolerance for Variability of Returns Historical Returns (does the pattern of returns fit your tolerance for risk) • Other non-pension investments/assets • Investment knowledge/interest • Work with professional investment and financial advisors 134 Does it Matter? Growth of $100,000 Over 20 Years $800,000 10%: $672,750 $700,000 Investment $600,000 8%: $466,095 $500,000 6%: $320,700 $400,000 $300,000 4%: $219,112 $200,000 $100,000 $0 0 5 10 15 20 Years 4% 6% 8% 10% 135 Inflation • Why we need an Investment Strategy that will outpace inflation! • What $1,000 is worth in 20 years: 2% 3% 4% $673 $545 $456 • $1.00 dollar earned in 1986 is now worth 47 cents 136 Risk What is RISK? • A scary 4 letter word that causes emotional thinking rather than rational thinking. 137 Newspaper Headlines From October 1987 • Another massive sell-off devastates Wall Street • It’s Armageddon, stock analyst says as panic continues • Traders push panic button as sky falls on markets • Global stock markets in free-fall • Gates of hell open wide – investors fall in, never to be heard from again 138 Emotional Thinking • Anxiety and fear of losing all my money • Loss of sleep • Leading to Panic Selling – locking in losses 139 Making Investment Changes During a Market Correction Balanced Fund • May 2008 - $441,961 • Dec 2008 - $374,504 • Difference - $(67,457) Moved to Short Term Fund at December 31, 2008 • Short Term Fund at Nov. 10 • Balanced Fund at Nov. 10 • Difference $376,900 $445,510 $ 68,610140 The Remedy For Fear If you do not invest beyond your risk tolerance you will never have to worry about fear taking control and being responsible for emotional decisions during a market downturn. 141 Rational Thinking • Average stock market declines last about 8 months • Market corrections are normal and they have always recovered and exceeded new highs • Stocks are now cheaper • Stocks compensate for short term volatility by providing higher returns. • Stocks are only one component in a Balanced Fund 142 What is Risk? • Possible loss of all my money invested in the Faculty Pension Plan? OR • Variability of returns – the ups and downs • Possibility that my investments won’t earn enough to last for my life 143 Sample of 2015 Holdings in FPP Canadian Equity & Balanced Fund • • • • • • • • • • Alimentation Couche-Tard Bank of Nova Scotia BCE Inc. Brookfield Canadian National Railway Cenovus Energy CGI Group CIBC Constellation Software Fortis Inc. • • • • • • • • • • Manulife Open Text Corp. Royal Bank of Canada Saputo Sun Life Suncor Toromont Toronto Dominion Bank TransCanada Valeant 144 How Often Can I Change My Investment Allocation? • Online allocation changes on Sun Life website • Daily Valuation- BEFORE 4:00 pm EASTERN • Watch for Short-term Trading warning 145 Advice From Professionals “If you want to see the greatest threat to your financial future then go home and take a look in the mirror!” Warren Buffet 146 Advice From Professionals “In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave!” Benjamin Graham 147 Mistakes Investment Advisors Say Are Hazardous to Your WEALTH • Failing to realize that market downturns are normal. 148 Recovery of Markets After Major Downturns YEAR CRISIS 1982 Latin American financial crisis 1984 US Bank crisis 1987 Black Monday- US stock crash 1990 US Savings & Loan Crisis 1995 Mexican pesos crisis 1997 Asian economic recession 1998 Hedge Fund blow-up 2000 Tech stock meltdown 2008 US sub-prime mortgage crisis 2011 European and U.S. Debt Crisis 149 Including dividends, the 2009 annual returns rank 3rd behind only 1979 and 1983. 2008 was by far the worst year over this period. S&P/TSX Total Return Index: Annual returns 1957 to 2009 50% 40% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% ‐40% -33% 150 Addiction to Prediction “It is very difficult to make predictions – especially about the future!” Yogi Berra, New York Yankees 151 The Challenge of Trying to Time the Markets Year Canadian Equity Fund Bond Fund 2002 -9.19% 8.33% 2003 29.14% 6.40% 2004 14.37% 6.42% 2005 23.73% 6.19% 2006 19.01% 3.44% 2007 11.52% 3.78% 2008 -30.69% 2.73% 2009 30.67% 10.47% 2010 17.97% 8.61% 2011 -7.95% 10.52% 2012 11.52% 4.37% 2013 20.33% -3.58% 2014 10.72% 9.62% 2015 -6.75% 3.54% (gross annual returns) 152 Markets are Unpredictable! (Returns include dividends and are measured in Canadian $) Stock Market/Country 2011 Returns US- Dow +10% US-S&P 500 +3% US. Nasdaq +1% U.K -1% Japan -9% Korea -11% Canada -12% China -15% Germany -16% Hong Kong -16% France -17% India -32% 153 Mistakes Investment Advisors Say Are Hazardous to Your WEALTH • Thinking we can consistently time market downturns and recoveries • A double-edged sword 154 Don’t Miss the Large Quarterly Gains That Frequently Occur August 1996: From Balanced to Short Term March 1998: From Short Term to Balanced August 1996 to February 1998 Returns Short Term Fund: 10.11% Balanced Fund: 30.95% 155 The Problem with Paying Too Much Attention to Short Term Returns 2010 NET RETURNS BALANCED FUND BOND FUND January – August 1.89% 6.91% * Member changes from Balanced Fund to Bond Fund Sept. – Dec. 7.48% Balanced Fund Return: Bond Fund Return: Member’s Return 1.34% 9.37% 8.25% 3.23% 156 Balanced Fund Annual Returns (Net) 30 Year Track Record - 8.37% 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015 11.38% 18.58% 13.58% 2.33% 14.54% 2.66% 9.00% 6.79% -13.45% 14.62% 10.90% 11.93% -0.46% 4.77% 9.37% 16.29% 0.64% 2.62% 7.33% -3.07% 9.58% 22.19% 12.36% 13.18% -0.54% 8.09% 10.86% 17.03% 11.79% 6.09% 157 Negative Quarters Are Normal! (Based on Balanced Fund) Year Negative Quarters Annual Return (Gross) 2006 1 13.96% 2007 0 3.19% 2008 3 -13.00% 2009 1 12.46% 2010 1 9.98% 2011 1 3.18% 2012 1 10.14% 2013 1 13.77% 2014 0 11.44% 2015 2 6.56% 158 Short Term Volatility in Equity Investments Is a Fact of Life: THINK LONG TERM! • Over the very long term stocks have always been the highest asset class • Owners make more money than Lenders • Negative returns happen in less than 5 year averages not in the long term • Choose the level of short term volatility you are comfortable with and stick to the plan • Reacting to short term market noises can destroy a good long term plan 159 What Professionals Say About Making Investment Allocation Changes • Try NOT to make changes in response to what is happening in the markets. • Instead make changes when: – You want to rebalance your unique balanced fund. – You feel there is a change in your long term risk tolerance- life cycle investing. 160 Sample Life Cycle Investing Age Asset Mix Equity % 20-40 Balanced Canadian Equity Foreign Equity 50% 25% 25% 75% 40-50 Balanced Canadian Equity Foreign Equity 70% 15% 15% 65% 50-60 Balanced Bond Fund 90% 10% 45% 60-70 Balanced Bond GIC 80% 10% 10% 40% 70+ Balanced Bond GIC 60% 30% 10% 30% 161 Advice From Professionals “The investor with a portfolio of sound stocks and bonds should expect their values to fluctuate and should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances. Always remember that market corrections are temporary and are there to either be taken advantage of or to be ignored!” Benjamin Graham 162 Summary of Investor Mistakes • • • • • • • Having all our “eggs” in one basket Putting too much long term money into savings vehicles (GIC’S) rather than investment vehicles Chasing last years returns (rear view mirror investing) Not understanding our tolerance for risk Trying to time the markets – thinking they are predictable Moving pension money into short term investments near or at the end of a market downturn Leaving funds designated for long term investing parked in a short term fund for too long a period of time 163 Investment Advisor Recommendations • Diversification • Expect market corrections but see them for what they are – normal and buying opportunities • Stay invested – don’t try and guess market ups and downs. Markets are unpredictable and will always surprise you! Try to avoid prediction addiction! • Review pension investments annually not daily/monthly. Think long term • Work with a professional advisor 164 165 Keeping Perspective by Remembering Our Priorities 1. SPIRITUAL AND MENTAL HEALTH 2. PHYSICAL HEALTH 3. TIME 4. HELPING OTHERS 5. MONEY 166 167 2016 Annual Pension Forum Date: Time: Place: May 25, 2016 (Wednesday) 10:30 am - 1:00 pm (doors open 10:15 am) Commons Block Ballroom Marine Drive Residence, 2205 Lower Mall Presentation begins at 10:30 am • Plan performance in 2015 • Review 2015 and 2016 Initiatives Information Tables & Guest Exhibitors 11:30 am to 1:00 pm ◦ New to the Plan ◦ Retirement ◦ UBC Retirement & Survivor Benefits ◦ Faculty Relations ◦ Service Canada Happiness Comes From Within “Happiness resides not in possessions and not in gold. The feeling of happiness dwells in the soul” Democritus (460-370 BC) 169