2005 NFL First Round Draft Projection:
BY MATTHEW HATFIELD --- Friday, April 22nd, 2005
You know what? I can go on, and on, and on about this draft. Who I think will
go there, and here, and anywhere. But do any of us really know? The answer is no and
you know it is when most of these teams don’t know what they are doing yet.
I’ve finally come to a conclusion about the NFL Draft: it is the football version of
the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. That’s right - both are chaotic, unpredictable
and just plain fun. By an hour in my mock draft sheet looks like my bracket sheet disastrous. Also, there’s another similarity: the number 32. You’ve got 32 first round
picks, while there are 32 first round games in the NCAA tourney. Whether it’s the 12-5
buzzer-beating upset or constant trade movement on that exciting Saturday in April, these
two events are as entertaining as anything.
Last year I got four of the first picks correct, including my wild card special Phillip Rivers to the Giants at #4 overall. This year - don’t be stunned if I get zero right.
This is a one-of-a-kind draft in the sense it’s scattered at the top, yet deep in the middle.
Let me give it another shot so buckle up and enjoy! P.S. – Thanks all of you for your
questions (e-mail: hatfieldsports2k4@yahoo.com).
… Up first the San Francisco 49ers - will they trade down? --- Jay, California
1. San Francisco 49ers
QB Alex Smith (Utah)
Jay, you’ve always got that possibility, especially in a draft like this one where
nobody is in love with anyone. In the end, the Niners are probably going to stick with
this pick and take Alex Smith. Despite having a slower release than Aaron Rodgers of
Cal, Smith, 6-4, is a system quarterback with running ability that can use just enough arm
strength to get the job done. More upside? Maybe, but if I was making this pick I’d take
either of the two receivers - Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams. Niners may have a
more pressing need at QB, though it appears that Edwards is the second name on San
Fran’s board now that Rodgers is slipping for some unknown reason. Mike Nolan knows
who he is picking unless someone gives them a tempting offer. We’ll see if it is indeed
Smith.
… Will the Dolphins take one of the two QB’s - Smith or Rodgers - or go running back
with Cedric Benson? --- Steve, Tempe
2. Miami Dolphins
RB Ronnie Brown (Auburn)
Well, I do think they will go running back, but it’s pretty unlikely Cedric Benson
is the guy. Personally, the move would be a good one if you ask me. It’s just that Ronnie
Brown should be the first running back taken in this draft after everyone has played him
up over the past couple months. The only way he isn’t [first back off the board] is if the
Dolphins go WR with Edwards or take a QB, Cleveland goes defense/QB/WR, and the
Bears then take Benson. My reasoning for them not taking a quarterback is this: why
take a QB when you signed Gus Frerotte in the off-season to be the backup and worked
hard to get A.J. Feeley last year? Obviously, new Head coach Nick Saban is not
responsible for those moves, management is. Get the Ricky Williams thing put to rest
and then sure up the defense as well as the offensive line in the next rounds.
… Hey everybody seems to be talking about the Dolphins and Niners trading out of the
top two spots this weekend - what are the chances Cleveland goes down, gets an extra
pick, and goes defense? --- Butch, Ohio
3. Cleveland Browns
WR Braylon Edwards (Michigan)
Hey is this former Head Coach Butch Davis? Probably not. Anyway, I think you
could be on to something because Romeo Crennel wouldn’t mind having an extra pick in
the top 35, making three total, and going defense. The team that may be willing to make
the move is the Washington Redskins, who could send their 9th and 25th overall picks to
Cleveland so they can take Braylon Edwards. If Cleveland stays here I have to believe
they take Edwards since they don’t have the deep threat at wide receiver on offense.
Luke McCown was drafted last year out of Louisiana Tech and Crennel may be willing to
give him a chance. Also, veteran Trent Dilfer was brought in to replace the departed Jeff
Garcia. And we all remember what Dilfer did the last time he was starting quarterback in
that division (lead Baltimore to a Super Bowl). If they elect to go down then my guess is
either Texas linebacker Derrick Johnson or West Virginia DB/return specialist Adam
Pac-Man Jones.
4. Chicago Bears
RB Cedric Benson (Texas)
Of all of the teams in the top five the Bears are most unlikely to take a
quarterback. In fact, they may actually have the most pressing need at wide receiver of all
those teams in spite of the fact they signed Muhsin Muhammad. Benson is special in my
opinion because he is the best running back in this draft after the initial hit. Defensively
the Bears are okay and have the potential to be better than that. One would think their
offensive line will be bolstered in the later rounds of this draft (maybe Michael Muñoz of
Tennessee early second day). If I was the person running the Bears organization and
Edwards was gone, it would be a no-brainer for me: Benson or Mike Williams.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB Cadillac Williams (Auburn)
There’s a new twist to the Bucs’ pick here at #5 if they indeed elect not to trade.
Reports have it that Tampa Bay is interested in dealing defensive end Simeon Rice to San
Diego for an additional first round choice, 28th overall. That would open the door for
them to take a DE/OLB tweener if they want to go that route instead of QB, RB, or WR.
One surprising name that’s surfacing - Troy’s Demarcus Ware. The guy the Bucs have
reportedly been targeting the past month is Cadillac Williams. Can’t go wrong with 3872
yards and 45 touchdowns in four years at Auburn can you? Aaron Rodgers will get
serious consideration, if available, but the franchise may have committed to Brian Griese
in the off-season when they gave him some big bucks. Chris Simms is the serviceable
backup with adequate upside.
… Any chance the Titans surprise and go Alex Barron with this pick? Thanks. --Denise, Kentucky.
6. Tennessee Titans
QB Aaron Rodgers (California)
No. If I’m exactly right through five picks (which you’ve probably got a better
chance of becoming an astronaut than that happening), then this is where the draft really
gets interesting. I say that because Tennessee can go a number of different ways with this
pick. They definitely need depth at wide receiver since they lost Derrick Mason, and
have said they want the best player available. First thing that must be established is who
is that best player left? Is it Mike Williams the receiver out of USC, Aaron Rodgers the
Cal QB, or someone else on the defensive side of the ball? A corner may not be a bad
option either since both starting corners from a year ago are gone. Rodgers would be the
right guy to mold to replace Steve McNair when he’s done. You say what about Billy
Volek? Finished the year decently, though he fits the backup role better and may be
someone Tennessee looks to dump to fix other areas.
… Is Minnesota interested in a running back or is that just talk? --- Leroy, Florida.
7. Minnesota Vikings
WR Mike Williams (USC)
18. Minnesota Vikings
DE Marcus Spears (LSU)
We pretty much know for a fact the Vikings aren’t going quarterback at #7
overall. What do we not know? A lot, no, whether they have scratched off running back
as a scenario here. Division rival Chicago could have quite a bit to do with what the
Vikings do. Cedric Benson may be the most likely tailback to fall unless the Bears are
uncomfortable taking Mike Williams and Braylon Edwards is gone. Then they are
looking at Benson square in the face. Cadillac Williams could also conceivably slip,
though he is on Tampa Bay’s radar screen and probably not Minnesota’s. Losing Randy
Moss means you have to go receiver. One of the new things on the horizon as we enter
draft weekend is the talk of Mike Williams slipping out of the top ten and Troy
Williamson (So. Carolina) leapfrogging him. No disrespect to Williamson, who did a
great job in a run oriented offense, but the Vikes would be crazy to pass on Williams.
One of the two will be available, back on that. It leads me to believe that the running
back stuff is just talk. In the end, Tice and co. come to their senses and take Williams
here.
8. Arizona Cardinals
CB Antrel Rolle (Miami of Florida)
Rolle has kind of fallen right into the Cardinals’ lap here at pick #8 overall in this
round. It sounds to me like Dennis Green wants a guy with speed that can come right in
and impact his football team. Rolle, not a QB like Rodgers, would be that guy. Derrick
Johnson, Pac-Man Jones, and rising Auburn corner Carlos Rogers also could be throw
into the mix. What Arizona may like about Rolle if Tennessee elects to pass on him at #6
is his versatility. I’m talking about the fact he can play some free safety when they want
to get him off of the corner spot. Arizona has traditionally been near the bottom of the
league in stopping the run. That means Rolle, a superb tackler who made 71 hits a season
ago, could line up near the line and blitz on occasion because of his great closing speed.
The Travis Henry deal looks shakier and shakier by the day, meaning the Cards can go
running back if one of the top three is available. Right now, receiver and QB look out of
the question since Arizona is pretty set at both positions.
… If the Redskins do not trade up to get Braylon Edwards or someone of that stature,
what do you think they do here and at #25 overall? --- Leonard, Maryland
9. Washington Redskins
CB Carlos Rogers (Auburn)
25. Washington Redskins
QB Jason Campbell (Auburn)
The Auburn special is on the menu for the taking. Question is will they take it? I
think the Redskins would go up and get Edwards if Dan Snyder hadn’t unwisely gotten
rid of some of his picks for down the road. They still can make a move, but if they don’t,
then I have to believe Rogers is the guy. I’m assuming at least one corner will be gone by
the time they pick, Antrel Rolle being the prime candidate. Two could be gone, but my
guess is that will not be the case with a team in front of them tempted to take a slipping
Mike Williams, Aaron Rodgers, or upper echelon tailback. This organization has made
some strange moves over the year and none would be crazier than to pass on Williams.
Doubt he’s there, doubt they go Shawne Merriman, and doubt Troy Williamson is their
choice at #9 overall (although that would be the least surprising of the three). Rogers
gives the Skins an aggressive corner that can lock someone down in press coverage. He
defended 40 passes last season, which was an Auburn school record, and he can translate
an awesome Sugar Bowl performance into a Pro Bowl career at the next level. As far as
Campbell goes, Len Pasquarelli is too highly respected in my mind to believe he made the
story up. So there’s got to be some truth to it, right?
10. Detroit Lions
LB Derrick Johnson (Texas)
Here’s one of the few guys to be penciled in at a particular spots for four of my
five mock drafts. Is it fair to say this could be the most consensus pick of the first round?
As strange as it sounds, yes. Detroit needs toughness on defense and Johnson is the guy.
You can’t tell me this guy does not move well and fails to make plays. Johnson, all 6-3
241 pounds of him, made 20 tackles in a game last season and set an NCAA record for
fumbles forced in a season with nine. All-American, Conference Player of the Year,
Butkus and Bronko Nagurski award winner - Johnson is at the very top of Detroit’s short
list.
… I know you feel pretty sold on them taking Merriman and Clayton with these two first
round picks, but what kind of depth can Dallas get in the later rounds? --- Elvin, Texas.
11. Dallas Cowboys
OLB/DE Shawne Merriman (Maryland)
20. Dallas Cowboys
WR Mark Clayton (Oklahoma)
Well, you’re right, I do feel pretty good about them going with Shawne Merriman
and Mark Clayton in round one. However, nothing is etched in stone and that’s a given
when you’re talking about wheelers and dealers like Bill Parcells and Jerry Jones.
Clayton may go to Cincinnati at #17 since Marvin Lewis wants another weapon on
offense, while Merriman may not be the guy Dallas wants. Instead, the boys could go
with Marcus Spears of LSU or Demarcus Ware of Troy, someone that I think is 1A/1B
with Merriman as far as the 11th pick goes. Interestingly enough this pick could decide
whether or not Dallas runs a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense next season. It also could help decide
what type of defensive depth they add in the second round and beyond. Another safety
would be ideal for them - perhaps Josh Bullocks of Nebraska or Virginia Tech’s Vincent
Fuller? Plenty of good o-linemen in the draft. Some guys Dallas has to consider include
Muñoz of Tennessee, an ideal fit for them in the 4th, Chris Kemoeatu of Utah, and Elton
Brown of Virginia in the second round.
… Hey kudos to you man for being one of the only people to have Troy Williamson
going here at #12. Now everyone is on the Williamson band wagon saying he goes
higher than 12. Can San Diego still get him? --- Phil, Iowa
12. San Diego Chargers
WR Troy Williamson (So. Carolina)
28. San Diego Chargers
OT Khalif Barnes (Washington)
Thank you Phil for the kind words. Wonderful draft last year for the Chargers….
yes, Williamson can go to them at #12. In fact, with his stock now skying almost as high
as he does for the football, I do not see the Chargers passing on him if he’s there when
they are on the clock. Demarcus Ware of Troy will be tempting and the same goes for
Shawne Merriman and Marcus Spears. Washington’s a small player for Williamson and
will be an even bigger one of if all three prime-time corners are taken by #9. Other than
that, it appears Minnesota is the only team already in the top ten that’s truly interested in
him. If San Diego does not go defensive end at #12 and are not content with the players
there at 28, then Oklahoma safety Brodney Pool and offensive tackle Khalif Barnes
(Washington) are two names to remember when your Chargers come up again in the first
round.
13. Houston Texans
OLB/DE Demarcus Ware (Troy)
Three guys fit Houston’s 3-4 defensive scheme: Ware, Merriman and Spears.
The peculiar thing is one of them - most likely Spears in this mock draft - may fall to a
team that uses a 4-3. It would be tougher for Spears because unlike Ware and Merriman
he doesn’t really have linebacker skills. So a team - let’s say Minnesota - may be forced
to take him over Erasmus James even though he does not currently fit that scheme at the
NFL level. Houston would have no problem getting a RB if one fell. Also, the Texans
will definitely think about Alex Barron to protect David Carr. My thinking is Houston
feels better about their offensive line with the improvement they’ve made and it is more
imperative they take guy who can make double-digit sacks on a yearly basis.
… You see Cadillac falling to my Panthers? What about Benson too. Think he falls out
of the top ten? --- Reggie.
14. Carolina Panthers
OT Alex Barron (Florida State)
No I don’t [see Cadillac falling to Carolina] and here’s why: the Texans would
gobble up any back, whether it be Benson or Cadillac, one pick before them. Dominick
Davis was effective, though he’s not at the same level of your LaDainian Tomlinson’s.
Houston would like to have a two-headed rushing attack similar to what Carolina had,
and still does in Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster. Mark Clayton is not an ideal pick
for them because they already have the precise route runner in last year’s second round
pick, Keary Colbert. Steve Smith is coming off an injury and can be the valuable deep
threat to make up for the loss of Muhammad. What the Panthers really need to look at is
an offensive tackle. Houston’s also intrigued by Alex Barron. If Barron is gone that
leaves Jammal Brown of Oklahoma and Washington’s Khalif Barnes. Need for defensive
end is not there, nor is the need for cornerback.
--- Now that the Chiefs have reportedly worked out a deal for Patrick Surtain, where do
you see them going in the draft and is trading down a likely scenario? --- Jeff, Arizona.
15. Kansas City Chiefs
S/OLB Thomas Davis (Georgia)
I don’t know that trading down is a likely scenario, but I think it’s very possible.
Not trying to beat around the bush here, but why would they deal if a Pac-Man Jones or
Ware slipped to them? Some think that Derrick Johnson will fall to them, whereas I’d be
stunned if Detroit passed on him. Jones and Spears are more logical picks and may have
more notoriety than Davis. Fact of the matter is the Surtain deal opens up the opportunity
for them to take a safety with outside linebacker skills in Davis. He’s good vs. both the
run and the pass, can play by vet MLB Kendrell Bell, and the DE position is not as big a
need area. Remember, Jared Allen was a spectacular late-round choice and can put
pressure on the QB. Spears probably does not fit their scheme either, but they will
tempted to take him. One team the Chiefs may trade with is Seattle, who wants a DE.
16. New Orleans Saints
CB/PR Adam Jones (West Virginia)
New Orleans (32nd last year in total defense) has to jump on Pac-Man Jones at #16
if he is there. Reason being? Here’s a guy that could go as high as #6 overall, maybe
even third to the Browns if they get crazy about him. Jones is the hardest guy for me to
figure on in this draft. I would have him sandwiched in between Antrel Rolle and Carlos
Rogers. Nonetheless, some teams think he is 20-25 material. What he gives the Saints is
another dual threat player. He can team with Michael Lewis on returns and give them
someone on nickel/dime packages as a rookie if he does not start immediately. Saints are
discussing a possible trade that would send defensive end Darren Howard elsewhere and
open the door for Spears or Erasmus James at this slot.
17. Cincinnati Bengals
TE Heath Miller (Virginia)
Once thought to be the pick for defensive tackle Travis Johnson, Cincinnati at #16
is looking at Mark Clayton, a distinct possibility to be the selection here. Marvin Lewis
wants to open things up a bit on offense and in order to that you need middle of the field
threat. Tight end Heath Miller provides that as he possesses the best hands in the draft.
Drafting him would allow Cincy to find Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and
tailback Rudi Johnson sufficient touches. Defense would probably be the way I go since
the Bengals’ run defense was one of the worst in football. Corner is not the choice for
them in round one, but the Bengals may think about Thomas Davis or even Channing
Crowder (considered a major stretch) with Nate Webster having some injury problems.
--- Would it be in the Rams’ best interest to take an offensive lineman here? --- Suzy.
19. St. Louis Rams
OT Jammal Brown (Oklahoma)
It would be in the Rams’ best interest to go after Jammal Brown. Kyle Turley is
not expected to return to the team in a fully capacity. Barron would be an even better
pick for them, though it’s doubtful the first o-lineman is taken at #19. Brown is the
prototypical right tackle, whereas Barron can play either tackle spot and Khalif Barnes
plays better on the left side. Brown, a 2004 Outland Trophy winner, could slip behind
Barnes in this draft. St. Louis’ other two options would be defensive end or Matt Jones.
It’s a major, major stretch Jones goes this high. Mike Martz, however, can always use
another cog in his bag of tricks. I also see them going defensive back in the 2nd-4th round
area - good choice there may be Ronald Bartell Jr.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
CB Fabian Washington (Nebraska)
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My inkling is the Jags (21 total offense, 11th total defense) will take Washington
no matter what with this pick unless Pac-Man falls this far. Highly unlikely that happens
so Washington, who’s a smooth tackler, steps right into the Jacksonville lineup. Justin
Miller Marlin Jackson are two other possibilities. I think Jackson, though not the return
man Miller is, can be thrown right into the mix quicker because he’s capable of playing
safety or corner. Jack Del Rio wants to get another offensive tackle, a defensive end, and
maybe even a receiver somewhere in this draft. Don’t let me forget about running back
either since Fred Taylor’s career is somewhat winding down. J.J. Arrington or Vernand
Morency are two key names in the second round to remember along with Frank Gore.
--- Mark Clayton and Roddy White are two receiver options for the Ravens in the first
round. Assess for me please their first round status as well as what they may do in the
second round, and what are their chances of getting Marcus Johnson? --- Paul, Indiana.
22. Baltimore Ravens
WR Roddy White (UAB)
Baltimore would love to have Mark Clayton still be on the board at pick #22.
Clayton is the sharpest route runner in this draft and would give them a complementary
weapon to Derrick Mason and go-get-it tight end Todd Heap. Marcus Johnson of Ole
Miss does fit into the Ravens plans in the second round. It’ll be interesting to see whether
or not they go defensive back or defensive line after they address the receiver position.
Also would not hurt them to get Kirk Morrison out of San Diego State in the fourth round
to backup Ray Lewis.
23. Seattle Seahawks
DE Erasmus James (Wisconsin)
The Seahawks can have a good draft if they do what they’re supposed to in the
later rounds. First and foremost, they must address the need for a backup quarterback.
Taking Charlie Frye or Jason Campbell here is a little bit of a reach. What does not look
like a reach is defensive end Erasmus James. David Pollack, Travis Johnson, or James
are three solid candidates for the Seahawks. Adding veteran corner Andre Dyson and
receiver Jerome Pathon earlier in the week makes those two positions less important.
--- How bad do the Packers really want Charlie Frye and are they willing to trade up in
the second round if that’s what it’s going to take to get him? --- Dan, Montana.
24. Green Bay Packers
DT Travis Johnson (Florida State)
Good question and I wish I had the answer to it for you. Travis Johnson is
someone the Packers will really look at long and hard. They were 25th in the league last
year in total defense so that’s where they need to go; not offense where they had no
trouble scoring points (just see the Packers-Colts game for proof). A defensive end such
as James or Pollack would please the people in Green Bay. Safety is a position the
Packers will look to upgrade somewhere in the second and third round. But to quit
dancing around your original question, I think the Packers are just going to hope nobody
bits on Frye because they aren’t in a spot where they can trade some picks to go up and
grab him. He’s my top rated quarterback - certainly a player with some Favre qualities.
--- I feel the Raiders still can do some things to make their offense better. What are your
feeling on that and who is the front-runner to go to them in the first round? --- Jeff, CA.
26. Oakland Raiders
CB/PR Justin Miller (Clemson)
Oakland’s offense is not in trouble. Without Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan, the
team’s two prized acquisitions since the end of last season, Oakland managed to rank 17th
in total offense. Defensively, not the case by any means as the Raiders 30th out of 32
teams in yards allowed per game. Ted Washington and Warren Sapp have not made an
impact noticeable to most NFL fans. Losing Philip Buchanon in the secondary does not
really help them, although taking Justin Miller may ease the pain. Miller can take punts
back and learn from one of the game’s best in Charles Woodson. He may be the guy Al
Davis has been keeping a close eye on the past couple weeks, triggering their deal with
the Jets that sent Doug Jolley to New York.
27. Atlanta Falcons
CB/S Marlin Jackson (Michigan)
General Manager Rich McKay has to be thrilled to see Marlin Jackson, an athletic
specimen out of Michigan, fall to them at #27. Falcons don’t need to go d-line here;
they’ve got the players already to pressure the quarterback. Work on strengthening the
secondary furthermore by getting a guy of Jackson’s caliber to play with last year’s first
round draft pick - DeAngelo Hall.
29. Indianapolis Colts
DE David Pollack (Georgia)
Defense, defense, defense. There’s no reason, whatsoever, the Colts should go
anywhere other than the defensive side of the football. If they do then Tony Dungy and
company will be expelled from planet Earth. Okay, not really, but Indy has to get some
kind of player who can impact their defense. Pollack, Channing Crowder and Barrett
Rudd are my top three candidates with Iowa’s Matt Roth coming in fourth.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
WR/QB Matt Jones (Arkansas)
Hines Ward was a quarterback at Georgia. Antwaan Randle El played gunslinger
in Indiana. Why not add Matt Jones, the former Arkansas Razorbacks signal caller, to the
collection? At 6-6 240 pounds, Jones can replace Plaxico Burress and go up and get that
pigskin soon to be second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger will throw. Okay, Jones may not
be a 1,000 yard threat like Ward or Burress. What he can be is someone who will stretch
the middle of the field and make teams pay attention to him.
31. Philadelphia Eagles
DL Shaun Cody (USC)
I see the Eagles waiting for Reggie Brown of Georgia at #35. They need receiver
help bad, especially with the whole Terrell Owens situation playing out the way it is. All
they are looking to do is get the best player available for depth purposes. Could be one of
maybe six different guys if the Eagles don’t trade up, which I think they will do.
32. New England Patriots
MLB Barrett Rudd (Nebraska)
To me, Channing Crowder is going to be a wonderful player in the National
Football League. I say a notch below Pro Bowl status. That being said, he’s not a Bill
Belichick type of player and the only two teams in the first round that could go for him
are Seattle and Indianapolis. Patriots have a few areas they can get better at including
inside linebacker, cornerback, guard, and even an extra receiver. Nebraska’s Barrett
Rudd takes care of one of those areas.
Is Tulane's Roydell Williams moving into the second round, and possibly into the
late first round? It's very unlikely, but you never know with the NFL Draft.