Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 www.elsevier.com/locate/agee Management influence on environmental impacts in an apple production system on Swiss fruit farms: Combining life cycle assessment with statistical risk assessment Patrik Mouron a,*, Thomas Nemecek b, Roland W. Scholz a, Olaf Weber a a Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Department of Environmental Sciences, Institute for Human-Environment Systems, ETH Zentrum, CHN J76.1, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland b Agroscope FAL Reckenholz, Swiss Federal Research Station of Agroecology and Agriculture, CH-8046 Zurich, Switzerland Received 21 September 2004; received in revised form 25 October 2005; accepted 22 November 2005 Available online 18 January 2006 Abstract In this study we assessed to what extent management of apple-growing within a well defined farming system affects environmental impacts. A four-year data set of 12 fruit farms from eastern Switzerland was analyzed using the life cycle assessment (LCA) method to evaluate the variability of different environmental impacts. For the total of 445 annual data sets of apple orchards eight impact categories were assessed. A principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to group the eight impact categories according to their correlation. A three component solution turned out to be adequate. It indicated that the three impact categories energy use, aquatic ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication were influenced independently of each other to a high degree. These three key impacts can be managed by keeping the inputs of machinery, pesticides and fertilizers low. Production constraints were highly homogeneous within the sample. Because of this, we were able to define the management influence on environmental impacts as the ratio of the maximum and minimum observed. On a per hectare basis, the effect of management for energy use was factor 2, for aquatic ecotoxicity factor 4 and for aquatic eutrophication factor 1.1. In contrast, when measured per receipts, the management influence was greater than per hectare, indicated by a range of factor 6 for each of the three key impact categories. Further insight into the effect of management was attained by statistical risk assessment. A positive and significant correlation between mean value (M) and the coefficient of variance (CV) indicated that the expected risk could be reduced by a low level of variability. Such a M–CV correlation was found for the two key impact categories energy use and aquatic eutrophication if calculated per receipts. No M– CV correlation was found for aquatic ecotoxicity. It was on the other hand observed that farms with low aquatic ecotoxicity also practiced low energy use and low eutrophication on a per receipt basis. We conclude that the promotion of environmentally sound apple-growing is not only a question of choosing one or the other farming system (e.g. organic versus integrated farming) but that an understanding of the system specific management influence is crucial. # 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Farm management; Environmental management; Life cycle assessment (LCA); Environmental impact assessment; Statistical risk assessment; Principal component analysis (PCA); Integrated apple-growing 1. Introduction Farmers need information about the causes of environmental impacts in order to promote environmentally sound agricultural production. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has * Corresponding author. Tel.: +41 44 780 48 46; fax: +41 44 632 10 29. E-mail address: patrik.mouron@env.ethz.ch (P. Mouron). 0167-8809/$ – see front matter # 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.020 become an established tool to generate such information (Audsley et al., 1997; Andersson, 2000; Haas et al., 2000; FAL, 2002; Brentrup, 2003). Some agricultural LCA-studies have compared different input intensity levels mainly for fertilizers and pesticides by comparing farming systems such as integrated versus organic farming. Stadig (1997), Reganold et al. (2001) and Bertschinger et al. (2004) have reported such comparisons of farming systems for apple- 312 P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 growing. Farming systems for arable crops have been assessed by Gaillard and Hausheer (1997), Nemecek et al. (2001, 2002) and Bailey et al. (2003) and for grassland by Haas et al. (2001). All those studies have addressed the differences between the farming systems regarding environmental impacts. However, Rossier and Gaillard (2004) found wide differences within both integrated and organic farming systems applying LCA to 50 farms in Switzerland. This variability within the same type of farms raises questions about the potential for improvement of environmental impact management in individual farming enterprises. To study the causes of the variability between farms the performance of individual fields or orchards should be addressed because in practice, as argued by Keating and McCown (2001), the single field is the basic managerial unit of a farm. In addition, Milà i Canals (2003) pointed out the importance of site-dependency for impact assessment, especially for apple orchard systems. However, to our knowledge, no empirical study has investigated the statistical distribution of environmental impacts among individual fields of a homogeneous group of farms over a reasonable span of years in order to investigate the management influence on environmental impacts. We report such a study here for the case of fruit farming. The objective of this paper is to investigate in which domains the environmental performance of integrated apple-growing in Switzerland can be improved at the farm level. This is done by (i) using life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze eight impact categories, (ii) by applying a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the complexity of these impact categories, and (iii) by analyzing the management influence based on a statistical risk assessment. As a result it is possible to suggest how much a successful farm manager could influence the level and distribution of impacts among the orchards and how far a control of the environmental impact variability is feasible. Apart from this, knowledge about the correlation between impact categories should allow a farm manager to focus on particularly relevant impacts when faced with the impact category complexity assessable by the LCA methodology. The farm data used in our study contains detailed information about the variability of production inputs and environmental impact categories of a sample with 12 Swiss fruit farms including 445 annual data sets of apple orchards over 4 years. All farms were participants in the environmental program of integrated farming. The paper is structured as follows. The next section introduces the LCA methodology and the framework used to assess the management influence and describes the data. The empirical results then follow. A comparison of environmental impacts of apple-growing with those of arable crops and implications for improving the environmental management of integrated apple-growing are discussed in the two final sections. 2. Methods and data 2.1. Methodology of life cycle assessment (LCA) Life cycle assessment is a method to quantify the environmental impacts of a product or process over its entire lifespan, i.e. ‘‘from the cradle to the grave’’ or from the extraction of the resources to the disposal of wastes. In this study the Swiss agricultural life cycle assessment method (SALCA) Version 1.31 was used. The life cycle inventories of emissions and used resources were taken from the SALCA database Version 031a according to Nemecek et al. (2003). Direct field emissions of ammonia, nitrous oxide, methane, phosphorus, nitrate and heavy metals were calculated by models with situation dependent parameters (Nemecek, 2003). The following eight environmental categories were assessed, which characterize relevant environmental impacts of apple-growing: ! Energy use, representing the non-renewable energy resources including primary energy of direct forms used in operations, i.e. diesel and electricity, as well as indirect forms, e.g. pesticide production, according to Frischknecht et al. (1996). Fossil energy resources (coal, oil gas) and uranium are included. ! Global warming potential (GWP) for 100 years was computed according to Houghton et al. (1995). The main emissions are carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, stemming from the use of energy resources and nitrogen fertilizers. ! Ozone formation potential was calculated according to Heijungs et al. (1992) and Dinkel et al. (1996). The major emissions are nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOC) from engine exhaust gases. ! Aquatic ecotoxicity potential and terrestrial ecotoxicity potential were based on methods described by Jolliet and Crettaz (1997) and Margni et al. (2002). Toxic impacts to ecosystems are mainly caused by pesticides and heavy metals. ! Aquatic eutrophication potential and terrestrial eutrophication potential were computed according to Heijungs et al. (1992) and LCA Nordic (1995). Eutrophication is the enrichment of the nutrients phosphorus and nitrogen in sensitive aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. ! Acidification potential was calculated according to Heijungs et al. (1992). Acidification refers not to the agricultural soil, but to sensitive ecosystems through aerial emissions. Human toxicity was not assessed due to methodical difficulties. Ozone depletion is not considered to be relevant for the studied system and was therefore not calculated. Impacts on biodiversity and soil quality were not evaluated, since the methodology is not yet developed. An agricultural LCA was carried out with the system boundary at the farm gate. Consequently the system included all activities in the orchards as well as transport P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 of the apples to the farm and transport of materials from the farm to the orchards. Not considered were the activities at the wholesaler and retailer such as sorting, storing and packaging of the fruits. The allocation of the inputs to the orchards was clearly defined by the farmer’s diary. Post harvest activities in the orchards that were linked to the next harvest were included in the LCA for the next season. For each orchard and each year a separate LCA was performed. Impacts from the manufacturing of the following inputs were taken into account in the LCA: ! Tractors and equipment, including their transport and maintenance. ! Buildings, required for shelter of tractors, equipment and materials. ! Energy carriers, which were diesel for machinery and electricity for lighting the buildings. ! Pesticides. ! Mineral fertilizers including their transport; no liquid or solid manure was applied. ! Tree nursing, including inputs for planting and 3 years of establishing of the orchards. ! Constructions for hail protection. ! Water for irrigation. ! Application of compost. Two functional units (FU) were used to relate the environmental impacts to the two main goals of environmentally sound apple-growing, according to multifunctional agriculture (van der Werf and Petit, 2002; Nemecek et al., 2004). First, ‘1 ha’ was taken as FU, referring to the goal of minimizing the impacts while cultivating a certain area. This area-related FU was used to compare the impact intensity of the farms. Second, ‘total receipts’ was used as FU, referring to the goal of minimizing the environmental impacts while achieving a certain production value. This receipts-related FU allows us to measure efficiency of the input use. It represents a measure of the eco-efficiency, according to the ecoefficiency concept which aims to minimize environmental impacts in relation to the amount or value of produced goods or services (Schaltegger and Burrit, 2000; Scholz and Wiek, 2005). ‘Total receipts’ includes sales of fresh apples of all quality-classes including processed fruits (culls), hail insurance proceeds and direct payments for ecological compensation through participating in the Swiss integrated farm management program (800 $ ha"1). The receipts were recorded in Swiss Francs (CHF). To convert into US dollars ($) an exchange rate of CHF 1.50 = $ 1.00 was used, which is the average exchange rate in the period of investigation. The average portions of the different apple qualities were 64% for first class (0.53 $ kg"1), 20% for second class (0.33 $ kg"1) and 16% for processed fruits (0.12 $ kg"1), which results in an average price of 0.43 $ kg"1 (weighted average over all three quality classes). 313 2.2. Assessing the management influence on inputs and environmental impacts In this study, the differences between the farms can be considered to be mainly due to differences in the farm management because of the homogeneous boundary conditions of the farms (see below). We refer to farm management in terms of input selection, which in turn have environmental implications. Based on that, we defined the differences between the farms as the management influence on inputs, respectively the management influence on environmental impacts. As a measure for the management influence we used the ratio of the minimum and maximum values observed. For example, if the maximum value was twice as high as the minimum value, the management influence was factor 2. The management influence is understood as a relative effect size, not implying that the lowest environmental impacts across the different environmental categories could be realized in reality on one single farm. In particular, the management influence is caused by differences in conducting the allocation of inputs (e.g. pesticides, fertilizers) to the different apple orchards of a farm. Regarding this input allocation, we quantified the management influence not only by mean values (M) but also by the coefficient of variance (CV) and the skewness of distributions. Investigating the correlations of M with CV and skewness, allocation strategies to reduce inputs and accordingly environmental impacts can be formulated. Regarding the environmental impacts we interpreted the three statistical parameters (M, CVand skewness) as expected, unknown and dread risk, according to recent risk research (Gigerenzer and Fiedler, 2003, unpublished data). This risk definition is based on the following assumptions: firstly, M is a measure of the central tendency and thus refers to the environmental impact that can be expected in an average among all orchards on a particular farm. Lowering the mean impact reduces the expected environmental risk. Secondly, the CV (standard deviation divided by M) shows the variation level of the single data. The higher the variation level, the less is known about how much a single result differs from the expected M. This is one reason to interpret the CV as the unknown risk. The other reason is that the level of variation is controllable only to a certain extent, because of unexpected events in the orchards (e.g. rain comes sooner than forecasted). Thirdly, if a variable is not normally distributed, a positive skewness informs us about an asymmetry with a longer tail to the right, showing that values above M show higher deviations from M than values below M (the opposite is true for a negative skewness). Exceedingly high impacts on certain orchards bear a selective environmental risk. Normally distributed impacts indicate that a fruit-grower mastered the natural balance in the orchards and was not forced to take emergency action. For the dread risk, the management influence was considered to be high if less than 50% of farms demonstrated distributions which did not significantly deviate from the normal distribution. The argument being that a small number of 314 P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 farms obviously possess the potential to avoid positively skewed distribution (dread risk), whereas the majority still failed to do so. In this study the expression ‘dread risk’ for a distribution that is skewed towards the unfavorable direction must be viewed relatively, because the amount and type of inputs per hectare of pesticides and fertilizers are limited by the guidelines of integrated fruit-growing. Generally, statistical risk assessment sets high impact cases in relation to low impact cases, rather than focusing only on the worst cases (Brachinger and Weber, 1997; Scholz and Tietje, 2002). As Mouron and Scholz (2005) have shown, statistical risk assessment is highly relevant for perennial tree crop systems, since a fruit-grower weighs up the potential gains and losses among all orchards of a particular farm, having in mind not only the present but also previous and future seasons. 2.3. Study location and farm-structure The data used in this study are from a 4-year survey conducted from 1997 to 2000 on 445 apple orchards of 12 fruit farms in Switzerland. Initially there were 25 farms in the survey, 12 were selected because of highly homogeneous boundary conditions concerning production constraints, farm-structure and education of the farm manager (Zürcher et al., 2003). The farms are located in the flatter regions of Eastern and Central Switzerland. The apple orchards are all on sites, well qualified for fruit growing according to the land assessment system for fruit crops in Switzerland (FAW, 1998). The altitudes of the orchards are similar with an average of 477 m above sea level (minimum = 390 m, maximum = 610 m, S.D. = 72 m). The climate data for the period 1961–1990 (MeteoSwiss, 2000; station in Güttingen) underline the good conditions for apple growing as well: the annual mean temperature is 8.5 8C with the highest and lowest monthly mean temperature of "0.3 8C (January) and 17.6 8C (July). Frost damage in the apple orchards is seldom, occurring about once in every 15 years. The mean annual precipitation is 916 mm with the highest and lowest monthly mean precipitation of 58 and 104 mm. Rainfall is well distributed throughout the growing season, so that hardly any irrigation is needed for apple-growing. On the other hand, the regular rainfall requires a consistent application of fungicides especially in the spring, mainly to control scab (Venturia inaequalis) and powdery mildew (Podosphaera leucotricha). Among pests, annual regulation of codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and rosy apple aphid (Dysaphis plantaginea) was practiced. Other pests, such as summer fruit tortrix moth (Adoxophyes orana) and apple sawfly (Hoplocampa testudinea) did not exceed the threshold every year and not in all orchards. Especially the pests that occur irregularly require a situation adjusted application of insecticides (Höhn et al., 2000). The farms were managed according to the guidelines of the Swiss program of integrated farm management (IPSuisse, 2003), which aims to achieve profits while respecting nature and personal health (Boller et al., 1997). The fruitgrowers were already well introduced to the integrated farming system before our study commenced. They had access to a local extension service, which recommended pesticide application according to pest threshold and taking beneficial organisms into account. Additionally all farm managers have diplomas in farming resulting from a 3-year apprenticeship, master courses or internships at several other farms. They all sold their apples to regional wholesalers and were subject to the same quality-price conditions. The 12 farms are specialized full-time family operations where the main farm income is fruit production. Fresh apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) was the major fruit type covering 80% of the orchard area per farm (M = 7.2 ha). Table 1 presents the structure of the farms and their apple orchards. In this study an orchard is defined as a block of apple trees of one cultivar, planted in the same year and trained in the same way. The average area of an orchard was 0.4 ha. The following apple cultivars were planted: golden Delicious (19%), Jonagold (11%), Idared (11%), Maigold (9%), Elstar (8%), Boskoop (8%), Arlet (6%), Gravensteiner (6%), Cox Orange (4%), Gala (4%) and 13 other cultivars with a total of less than 3%. Sixty-five percent of the orchards were protected by hail nets; the other orchards had some insurance against hail damage. All farms had their orchards close by and could reach them within a distance of 2 km. 2.4. Data recording for LCA The survey was carried out in cooperation with the Swiss Federal Research Station for fruit-growing, Viticulture and horticulture in Wädenswil, Switzerland. The fruit farmers Table 1 Structure of the 12 fruit farms under study, based on the year 2000 Age of farm manager (years) Years in the position as farm manager (years) Permanent labor per farm (N) Seasonal workers per farm (N) Acreage per farm with apple orchards (ha) Acreage of an individual apple orchard (ha)a Density of trees (trees ha"1)a Age of apple orchards (years since planting)a a Mean Standard deviation Minimum Maximum 43.9 18.4 2.0 7.6 7.2 0.4 2340.0 8.0 10.1 11.5 0.7 7.7 3.9 0.2 602.0 3.1 28.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.1 1502.0 4.0 66.0 48.0 3.0 28.0 14.4 1.4 3984.0 15.0 Only apple orchards in the productive phase (4–15 years old). P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 were instructed to record data for full cost accounting using a commercial software package (ASA-Agrar #, 2003). Using this software all farmers kept a diary about all activities in the individual fruit orchards. Each activity had to be linked to the actual physical and monetary inputs of labor force, machinery, equipment, pesticides, fertilizers and materials. Also the harvested apples in the different quality categories were recorded. The physical data of the farm diaries were used for the impact assessment of this study. Each year the completeness of the recorded data was checked on each farm. Together with the farm manager the data was also checked for plausibility. As a result of those checks, the original total of 499 annual data sets of individual apple orchards was reduced to 445, covering a total of 165 ha. There are no missing data for the 445 orchards analyzed in this study. All orchards included in the study had been in the productive phase, with a minimum age of four and maximum age of 15 years. 3. Results 3.1. Management influence on inputs and outputs Table 2 shows the statistical parameters of the inputs and outputs for the apple-growing process of the 12 farms. The management influence, represented by mean values, is for all 315 inputs and outputs considerable, with a ratio of maximum and minimum of factor 2 at the least. Particularly the average input per farm differs for pesticides at least by factor 5 (e.g. fungicides: lowest M = 9.2; highest M = 52.8 kg ha"1 active matter), for fertilizers by factor 10 (e.g. N-fertilizer: lowest M = 10.5; highest M = 110.3 kg ha"1 nitrogen), for machinery (e.g. diesel: lowest M = 161.9; highest M = 375.0 kg ha"1) and receipts (lowest M = 8.7; highest M = 23.1 k$ ha"1) by factor 2. The management influence, represented by the coefficient of variance (CV), is for most inputs around factor 5 (Table 2). Machinery shows the lowest average CV by not exceeding 28%, while for pesticides the average CV is between 30 to 99%, for fertilizers between 56 to 200% and for the outputs at 50%. Thus, the data suggest that the variation level for inputs and outputs is influenced by the farm management in a significant way. The management influence, represented by the portion of farms with normally distributed values, differs among the variables. Whereas values for machinery and outputs are normally distributed on most farms (67–100%), for pesticides and fertilizers the likelihood for positively skewed distributions is higher. This is indicated by less than 50% of farms with normal distributions (Table 2). Remarkable is that while the inputs of fungicides and herbicides are normally distributed on half of the farms, this portion is lower for insecticides (17%). Insecticides tend Table 2 Inputs and outputs per hectare of the apple-growing process; average values of 12 fruit farms, Switzerland, 1997-2000 Mean Inputs Pesticides (kg active matter) Fungicide Insekticide Herbicide Other plant treatment products Fertilizers N-fertiliser (kg N) Ca- and Mg-fertiliser (kg Ca, Mg) K-fertiliser (kg K2O) P-fertiliser (kg P2O5) Machinery Diesel (kg) Tractor (kg)b Equipment (kg)b Buildings (m2) c Outputs Total receipts ($ ha"1) Yield (t ha"1) Minimum Maximum 23.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 9.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 52.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 62.0 51.7 10.5 0.0 47.2 3.8 CV (%) Farms with normally distributed values (%) a Skewness Minimum (%) Maximum (%) 30 54 43 99 7 33 11 15 55 92 86 250 50 17 50 8 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.2 110.3 157.2 56 119 24 37 100 332 17 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 102.2 17.4 82 200 16 83 131 424 10 0 0.3 1.7 231.7 19.8 48.5 0.2 161.9 13.0 30.9 0.2 375.0 30.3 73.3 0.3 27 28 28 21 9 15 11 6 46 48 52 44 92 100 75 67 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 13463.4 31.4 8671.6 19.1 23114.8 46.2 49 50 24 21 74 73 83 83 0.5 0.4 Water for irrigation and compost are unlisted, since these inputs were only used by two farms to a low extent. a Normal distribution was tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, P > 0.05. b For life cycle assessment each type of tractor or equipment was attributed with a certain kg h"1 (according to the weight and expected life-hours) which was multiplied by the hours the tractor or equipment was used. c For life cycle assessment m2 was adjusted to an expected life time of 80 years for the buildings; buildings are for shelter of tractors and equipment. 316 P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 Table 3 Area-related life cycle impact assessment profile of 12 fruit farms, Switzerland, 1997–2000 Farms with normally distributed values (%) a Skewness 28 33 100 75 0.0 "0.1 12 37 92 0.0 41 24 65 25 0.5 0.8 56 26 123 17 0.2 1.0 1.1 3 1 13 92 0.2 3.2 2.2 5.5 73 41 133 58 0.2 25.4 17.9 40.7 23 12 35 75 0.3 Impact categories Mean Minimum Maximum CV (%) Minimum (%) Energy use (GJ eq. ha"1) Global warming potential for 100 years (t CO2 eq. ha"1) Ozone formation (kg C2H4 eq. ha"1) Aquatic ecotoxicity (kg Zn eq. ha"1) Terrestrial ecotoxicity (kg Zn eq. ha"1) Aquatic eutrophication (kg PO4 eq. ha"1) Terrestrial eutrophication (kg PO4 eq. ha"1) Acidification (kg SO2 eq. ha"1) 37.6 2.6 23.1 1.6 54.5 3.8 21 22 9 13 17.2 10.6 26.5 23 4.7 2.0 9.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 Maximum (%) eq.: equivalents. a Normal distribution was tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, P > 0.05. therefore to be applied in an unbalanced way more frequently than fungicides and herbicides. A reason for this result could be the irregular occurrence of some pests whereas the disease situation tends to be steady in the region under study (see above). Nevertheless, the results suggest a potential towards more balanced pesticide inputs for most farms. Among the fertilizers the skewed input on most farms reflects to a certain extent the situation adjusted application of nutrients. For nitrogen (N), the annual applications must be adjusted to the fruit loadings and other indicators in order to achieve a favorable fruit quality. However, there is still potential to achieve a more balanced nitrogen input, as 17% of the farms have demonstrated. Other nutrients (P, K, Ca and Mg) can be stored in the soil over years and do not necessarily require annual applications. Thus, seen over a period of 4 years, a skewed distribution for these nutrients seems to be normal. 3.2. Management influence on area-related environmental impacts Table 3 presents the statistical parameters of the impact assessment profile. The mean values, corresponding to the expected risk, show for all impact categories a ratio of at least factor 2. Except for aquatic eutrophication the lowest and highest means differ by only 10%. In particular, the impact categories that show a ratio between the farms of between factors 2 and 3 are energy use (lowest M = 23.1 GJ eq.1 ha"1; highest M = 54.5 GJ eq. ha"1), global warming potential (lowest M = 1.6 t CO2 eq. ha"1; highest M = 3.8 t CO2 eq. ha"1), ozone formation (lowest M = 10.6 kg C2H4 eq. ha"1; highest M = 26.5 kg C2H4 eq. ha"1), terrestrial eutrophication (lowest M = 2.2 kg PO4 eq. ha"1; highest M = 5.5 kg PO4 eq. ha"1) and acidification (lowest M = 17.9 kg SO2 eq. ha"1; highest 1 eq.: equivalents. M = 40.7 kg SO2 eq. ha"1). Thus, on a per hectare basis, the management influence to reduce the environmental impact of these five categories is at factor 2. For terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicity, the area-related management influence is even bigger in the region between factors 4 and 8. The unknown risk, indicated by the CV, varies considerably among the farms. The management influence to reduce the CV is at factors 3 to 4 for all impact categories, except for aquatic eutrophication, where the potential is at factor 13. Although these management influences can be considered as high, the absolute influence on the environment through reducing the variation level might be low, because for most categories the average of the CV is lower than 23%. Higher average CV’s occurred for terrestrial eutrophication (73%), terrestrial ecotoxicity (56%) and aquatic ecotoxicity (41%). These three categories had the lowest numbers of farms demonstrating normal distributions and therefore show a high likelihood for positive skewed distributions. 3.3. Management influence on receipts-related environmental impacts Table 4 shows the statistical parameters for the impact categories with the functional unit ‘total receipts’. Concerning the expected risk, the receipt-related management influence was in general higher than the area-related influence. The lowest receipts-related management influence to reduce the expected risk was found for the category terrestrial ecotoxicity with factor 4 (lowest M = 0.01 g Zn eq. $"1; highest M = 0.04 g Zn eq. $"1), the highest influence occurred for ozone formation with factor 7 (lowest M = 0.28 g C2H4 eq. $"1; highest M= 2.15 g C2H4 eq. $"1). The management influence for the receipts-related unknown risk is at factor 3 (Table 4), the same effect of management as for the area-related impacts (Table 3). In contrast to the area-related impacts, the receipts-related P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 317 Table 4 Receipts-related life cycle impact assessment profile of 12 fruit farms, Switzerland, 1997–2000 Impact categories Energy use (MJ eq. $"1) Global warming potential for 100 years (kg CO2 eq. $"1) Ozone formation (g C2H4 eq. $"1) Aquatic ecotoxicity (g Zn eq. $"1) Terrestrial ecotoxicity (g Zn eq. $"1) Aquatic eutrophication (g PO4 eq. $"1) Terrestrial eutrophication (g PO4 eq. $"1) Acidification (g SO2 eq. $"1) Mean Minimum Maximum CV (%) Minimum (%) Maximum (%) Skewness Farms with normally distributed values (%) a 1.90 0.13 0.69 0.05 4.23 0.24 62 61 32 31 92 94 17 25 1.7 1.6 0.87 0.28 2.15 61 31 102 17 1.7 0.24 0.07 0.44 83 50 136 8 2.1 0.03 0.01 0.04 95 58 143 25 2.1 0.05 0.02 0.11 71 26 98 33 2.2 0.20 0.06 0.35 65 33 109 17 1.8 1.55 0.52 2.83 63 34 98 25 1.8 eq.: equivalents. a Normal distribution was tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, P > 0.05. impacts show a higher average level of variation (CV of 60– 90%). Thus, the influence of the farm management on the receipts-related variation level might have bigger implications on the environment than for the area-related impacts. Concerning the receipts-related dread risk, the management influence is high, indicated by only a small proportion of farms (8–33%) with normally distributed impacts (Table 4). Most farms show significantly right skewed impacts in all environmental categories. Generally, a higher positive skewness resulted if impacts were measured per receipts instead of per hectare. This suggests that the level of inputs did in most cases not determine the level of receipts. The biggest difference was found for energy use, where 100% of the farms showed normally distributed values measured per hectare (Table 3), whereas only 17% of the farms did so if measured per receipts (Table 4). 3.4. Correlations between environmental impact categories A principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to group the eight impact categories according to their correlation. A three component solution turned out to be adequate. The first principal component accounted for 57%, the second for 22%, and the third for 11% of the variance. Principal components loadings after a varimax rotation are shown in Table 5. Five impact categories related to energy inputs loaded high on the first component (energy use, greenhouse potential, ozone formation, terrestrial eutrophication and acidification). The high correlation of these five impacts is of interest for environmental management because if one of those impacts is kept low, the other four impacts will be low as well. The correlation of terrestrial eutrophication with energy use is caused by N-fertilizers which act on both of these impact categories: Terrestrial eutrophication is influenced by N losses to air (mainly NH3) and the manufacturing of N-fertilizers requires high energy consumption. On the second component the two impact categories aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity loaded high, indicating that these two impacts act in parallel. Both are related to pesticide inputs. On the third component only aquatic eutrophication loaded high. This impact category is dominated by P-compounds (Fig. 1) through P-losses to water. P-fertilizers need only one application per year or even less, while N-fertilization requires several applications over a season. Thus, there is now correlation between P- and N-fertilization. This background of fertilization practice gives reason to consider a three component solution as adequate despite the eigenvalue 0.9 of the third component being a little lower than the common threshold of eigenvalue 1.0. Over all, the results indicate that the three environmental issues energy, ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication can be influenced independently of each other to a high degree by Table 5 Principal component analysis (PCA): rotated component matrix with eight area-related impact categories; 445 apple orchards, Switzerland, 1997–2000 Component 1 Impact categories Energy use (GJ eq. ha"1) Global warming potential for 100 years (t CO2 eq. ha"1) Ozone formation (kg C2H4 eq. ha"1) Aquatic ecotoxicity (kg Zn eq. ha"1) Terrestrial ecotoxicity (kg Zn eq. ha"1) Aquatic eutrophication (kg PO4 eq. ha"1) Terrestrial eutrophication (kg PO4 eq. ha"1) Acidification (kg SO2 eq. ha"1) Total variance explained Initial eigenvalues Variance explained (% of variance) 2 3 0.95 0.95 "0.03 "0.01 0.06 0.20 0.94 0.00 0.07 0.19 0.90 0.94 "0.04 0.93 0.93 0.05 0.13 0.13 "0.01 0.07 0.00 0.98 0.16 0.16 4.58 57.19 1.76 22.00 0.89 11.17 N = 445; loadings exceeding 0.8 are in bold print; eq.: equivalents. 318 P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 managing the domain of energy consuming inputs as well as the applications of pesticides and fertilizers. 3.5. Input-impact map An input-impact map provides an overview for environmental management, showing which inputs influence which impacts the most. Based on the results of the PCA presented above, it is possible to concentrate on three principal components in environmental management of apple-growing. From each of the three principle components (Table 5) one highly loading impact category was picked to represent them, namely: energy use, aquatic ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication. Fig. 1 shows the input-impact-map by illustrating the level of statistically significant correlations of the three impact categories with the inputs. Energy use, representing the first component, shows significant correlations with eight of the total 13 inputs. The highest correlation of energy use was found with diesel (r = 0.78) and with the inputs that are connected with the use of diesel, namely: equipment (r = 0.66), tractors (r = 0.61) and buildings for machinery shelter (r = 0.59). Hail protection is also highly energy related (r = 0.59). In addition the inputs of Ca- and Mg-fertilizer (r = 0.39), N-fertilizer (r = 0.39) and other plant treatment products (r = 0.30) contribute also to energy use. In contrast K-fertilizer is neither correlated to energy use, nor to aquatic ecotoxicity or aquatic eutrophication. Some of the energy related inputs contribute also to the impact variable aquatic eutrophication, such as N-fertilizer and to small extent Ca- and Mg-fertilizer, equipment, buildings and diesel. For aquatic eutrophication P-fertilizer (r = 0.78) and N-fertilizer (r = 0.44) are the most related inputs. Insecticides (r = 0.68) and fungicides (r = 0.48), and to a minor extent herbicides and P-fertilizer show the highest correlations with the impact category aquatic ecotoxicity. 3.6. Area- and receipts-related energy use The trend in average energy use of the farms remains whether the functional unit is ‘one hectare’ or ‘total receipts’, as Fig. 2 illustrates. This means that farms with a low energy use per hectare (i.e. farm numbers 6 and 2) may demonstrate at the same time low energy use per ‘total receipts’. Apparently, for those farms it was possible to achieve relatively high receipts with low (area-related) energy intensity, compared to other farms of the sample. On the other hand, farms with relatively high energy input per hectare (i.e. farm numbers 9 and 11) were not able to increase the receipts in the same proportion, so that those farms end up with high energy use per output (receipts) and thus with a low energy efficiency. These results indicate that favorable environmental management has the potential to decrease the energy input and at the same time to increase the receipts. Fig. 2 provides also the portions of the different inputs contributing to energy use. In the average the energy use is mainly due to energy carriers, i.e. diesel and electricity (33%), machinery (20%) and hail protection (18%). Mineral fertilizer, pesticides and buildings contribute each at 10%. These percentages do not change whether the area- or receiptrelated FU is considered, due to mathematical reasons.2 3.7. Correlation between mean and CV of impact categories For the three impact categories energy use, aquatic ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication the correlation between mean and CV was calculated for the 12 farms. The results differ depending on the functional unit. In the case of the receipts-related LCA, the correlation between mean and CV was found to be positive and statistically significant, F(1, 10) = 11.24, P < 0.01 for energy use (Fig. 3i) as well as for aquatic eutrophication (Fig. 3iii), F(1, 10) = 14.50, P < 0.01, whereas for aquatic ecotoxicity (Fig. 3ii) this correlation was not significant F(1, 10) = 1.54, P > 0.05. Thus, farms with a low variation level of receiptsrelated energy use or aquatic eutrophication were likely to show at the same time low mean values. The linear relationship between mean and CV can be considered as high, with r = 0.73 for energy use and r = 0.77 for aquatic eutrophication. These results indicate that variation control can be used as a management mechanism to achieve ecoefficiency for energy use and aquatic eutrophication, but this mechanism does not work in the case of ecotoxicity. Fig. 1. Area-related input-impact correlation: Pearson correlations of production inputs with three impact categories for 445 apple orchards, Switzerland, 1997–2000; correlations are significant at the 95% significance level (two-tailed). eq.: equivalents. 2 Changing the FU means changing the denominator, whereas the numerator remains the same. Thus, the proportion of numerators does not change independent from the FU. P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 319 Fig. 2. Average use of non-renewable energy resources per hectare (left scale) and per total receipts (right scale) of life cycle assessment for applegrowing on 12 fruit farms, Switzerland, 1997–2000. eq.: equivalents. For the functional unit area, the life cycle assessment showed neither for energy use (P = 0.994) nor for aquatic eutrophication (P = 0.098) nor for aquatic eutrophication (P = 0.190) a statistically significant correlation between mean and CV. Thus, a positive interdependency of expected and unknown risk was not observed on a per hectare basis, as it was for receipts-related LCA. Interesting to note that the farms with the lowest energy use per receipts (i.e. farm numbers 1 and 2) also achieved lowest means for aquatic ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication (Fig. 3). This suggests that favorable receipts-related ecoefficiency can be reached on one farm for all three impact categories. Successful environmental management optimizes the input domains of energy, pesticides and fertilizers without a trade-off between these input domains. Thus, attaining high (receipt-related) eco-efficiencies for all three impact categories are not necessarily contradictory management goals. 4. Discussion 4.1. Expected environmental impacts of integrated apple-growing compared with arable crops If we take the mean value as an indicator of the expected impact, apple-growing can be represented by 37.6 GJ eq. ha"1 for energy use, 4.7 kg Zn eq. ha"1 for aquatic ecotoxicity Fig. 3. Linear correlation between mean and coefficient of variance for (i) energy use, (ii) aquatic ecotoxicity, and (iii) aquatic eutrophication per total receipts of 12 fruit farms, Switzerland, 1997–2000; r is the Pearson correlation coefficient, P the significance level (two-tailed). eq.: equivalents. and 1.0 kg PO4 eq. ha"1 for aquatic eutrophication. An LCA study of Nemecek et al. (2002) on 18 different field crops with integrated farming practice in Switzerland applied the same LCA methodology as in this study. The results suggest that potatoes, sugar beets and carrots cause similar expected impacts to the ones we found for apple-growing, regarding energy use and aquatic ecotoxicity. Not only the mean values but also the percentage of the input-related impacts is similar, caused by the dominance of energy carriers and machinery 320 P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 for the impact category energy use and the dominance of pesticides for aquatic ecotoxicity. Regarding aquatic eutrophication apple-growing shows by far (at least by factor 10) a lower meanvalue than all arable crops, mainly as a result of low P-fertilizer needs in apple-growing. Because apple trees are perennial, a comparison to arable farming at a crop rotation level is reasonable. An LCA study in Switzerland of a crop rotation including potatoes, winter wheat, grain maize spring barley, grass-clover and forage catch crop (Nemecek et al., 2001) reported an energy use of 24.6 GJ eq. ha"1, an aquatic ecotoxicity of 2,2 kg Zn eq. ha"1, and an aquatic eutrophication of 1.5 kg PO4 eq. ha"1 per year on the average over the whole rotation of the integrated faming system. Thus the area-related energy use is about 50% higher for apple-growing in comparison to the arable crop rotation system, whereas the aquatic eutrophication is lower. Despite the input of pesticides in apple-production being a factor of 10 higher (i.e. for applegrowing 29.5 kg ha"1, for arable crop rotation 3.3. kg ha"1 active matter), the aquatic ecotoxicity is only by a factor 2 higher for apple-growing compared to the arable crop rotation system. The relatively high aquatic ecotoxicity in arable crop rotation is mainly caused by the input of heavy metals in liquid and solid manures which are not used in apple-growing. 4.2. Management influence to reduce expected environmental impacts The empirical results show that homogeneous boundary conditions of a farm group, i.e. geographical, technical and educational background, do not imply homogeneous environmental impacts. There is a considerable potential for apple-growers to improve environmental management, indicated by differences of mean values for impact categories between factors 2 and 3 on a per hectare basis and between factors 4 and 7 if calculated per ‘total receipts’ for the examined sample of fruit farms. This management influence to reduce environmental impacts within a welldefined farming system comes close to the suggested goal of factor 4 (Weizsäcker et al., 1997) or even factor 10 (Schmidt-Bleek, 1994) which have been proposed as sustainable target levels. The management influence has also been investigated in other studies when comparing different farming systems (e.g. integrated versus organic). Reganold et al. (2001) for instance reported a factor 4 between organic and integrated apple-growing systems in Washington State according to an environmental impact rating per hectare. For dairy farming Haas et al. (2001) found on a per hectare basis differences between intensive and organic farms in Germany corresponding to factor 4 for eutrophication, factor 3 for energy use; in contrast, the two farming systems did not differ regarding global warming or acidification. For arable crop rotation on farms in the UK, however, Bailey et al. (2003) reported an average difference between conventional and integrated farms of only 8% for the energy use per hectare. Thus, the differences between the farming systems, mainly due to different production technologies and constraints, might not be greater than the differences within a single farming system, mainly caused by varying management abilities. Large differences between farms within the same farming system were reported by an LCA study of Rossier and Gaillard (2004) on Swiss farms. For arable crops the ratio between the farms for energy use, aquatic ecotoxicity and eutrophication was factors 5, 6 and 4, respectively, which comes close to the magnitude we found for apple-growing. In any case, the authors could not explain the differences in environmental performance by parameters such as farm area, age of farm manager, or other external parameters. They concluded that the management abilities of the farmers could have been crucial. In Section 4.3 we provide some practical implications to improve the environmental management on fruit farms, based on results of the PCA and the statistical risk assessment. 4.3. Implications to improve environmental management With the control of just three key impact categories, a total of eight impact categories will come under control, according to the results of the PCA. Additionally the PCA shows that the three key impact categories can be managed independently from each other. In particular, a farm manager should focus on controlling energy use, aquatic ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication. Keeping energy use low is most effective because a low use of energy correlates with low levels of four other impact categories (ozone formation, global warming potential, terrestrial eutrophication and acidification). Furthermore, the management of aquatic ecotoxicity parallels management of terrestrial ecotoxicity. To attain a low level of energy use, an apple-grower should keep the input of diesel fuel low. This could be accomplished by using small and fuel efficient engines and by reducing the input of machinery hours per hectare, for instance, through optimized organization during the apple picking period. Similarly important is to keep the number and size (weight) of the machinery as low as possible but at the same time to increase machinery life span as much as possible. This might be reached by an optimal relation between machinery and area under cultivation. Further the area with hail protection constructions should be kept as small as possible by orchards with hail insurance, as long as there are no negative consequences on the receipts. In order to attain a low ecotoxicity and low eutrophication the ecological balance in the orchards should be optimized by a sound but low input of pesticides and nutrients avoiding negative side effects on beneficial organisms and plant robustness against diseases. Such an ecological balance might also be a reason that pests which occur irregularly in a region can be kept under the threshold in most cases and thus skewed distributions of pesticides (especially of insecticides) can be avoided. But P. Mouron et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 311–322 this ecological balance might not be easy to achieve and to hold over the years, as indicated by the low proportion of farms with normally distributed pesticide inputs. It might also be difficult to re-establish an ecological balance in an orchard, because a damaged orchard often takes more than one season to recover. Even the expert fruit-grower often does not know for certain whether a specific input will bring the desired effect or not. This is because of the uncertainty of rainfall and temperature and the different susceptibility of orchards to pests and diseases. As Mouron et al. (in press) point out, a distributional thinking is adequate to deal with this kind of risk situation that is typical for orchard farming. A distributional thinking has high management implication because it helps to keep in mind not only each orchard as a specific case but also the whole of all orchards that compose a fruit farm. In this context the statistical risk assessment suggests an interesting mechanism, which can help farmers to implement distributional thinking in their management. It is based on the significant correlation between the mean and the level of variability (CV) of receipts-related energy use and aquatic eutrophication. We suggest that, in practice, farms may hope to achieve low energy use and low eutrophication as long as they control the level of variability of these impact categories in relation to the receipts. The above mentioned ecological balance might be a key issue to do so, but the causes that lead to such a control of the variability among the orchards could be an interesting subject of further research. Since no such correlation between mean and CV was found for aquatic ecotoxicity, pesticide inputs cannot be reduced by a low variation level. But we would like to point out that farms with low energy use and low aquatic eutrophication per receipts can also be farms with low pesticide inputs, as was the case for farms no. 1 and 2. 321 (integrated apple-growing) and under homogeneous boundary conditions such as production technology, climate, education, and market access. The high ratio of around factor 6 for key impact categories of LCA imply that the promotion of environmentally sound applegrowing is not only a question of choosing a farming system (e.g. organic versus integrated farming) but that an understanding of the system specific management influence is crucial. The study demonstrates that the methods of PCA and statistical risk assessment complement each other in such an understanding. Whereas PCA detected environmental domains (area-related energy use, aquatic ecotoxicity and aquatic eutrophication) which can be managed independently of each other, statistical risk assessment provided the insight that for some domains (receipts-related energy use and aquatic eutrophication) the expected risk (M) can be controlled by keeping the level of variability (CV) low. Both methods demonstrate the importance of differentiating between impact categories and between functional units (arearelated, receipts-related) for managerial purposes at the farm level. Because some farms with low energy inputs per receipts also attained low pesticide and fertilizer inputs per receipts, we suggest that a favorable environmental performance of a farm is mainly based on the effective use of technologies, including proper handling and timing, and probably most important is a realistic distributional thinking that allows the farmer to allocate the inputs to the different orchards in relation to the expected receipts. Thus, we think that the endeavor of farm data recording for individual orchards, analyzed by a statistical risk assessment as proposed in this study, could be relevant to favoring environmentally sound orchard farming. 4.4. Recommendation of how to use PCA in LCA studies Acknowledgements For managerial purposes at the farm level, we recommend for LCA applications initially to include as many impact categories as available and then, in a second step to reduce the complexity by grouping the impact categories according to their correlations by performing a PCA. We recommend in a third step to single out one highly loading impact category for each principal component. The chosen impact categories should be managerially and cognitively accessible to the farmers (Werner and Scholz, 2002). In the present study we initially used eight impact categories. Further impact categories such as biodiversity, soil fertility or landscape are subject of ongoing research projects and are recommended to include in future studies. 5. Conclusions This study examined the variability of environmental impacts between fruit farms of the same farming system First of all, the authors would like to thank the fruitgrowers for their co-operation over the whole span of the study. We also acknowledge the support of the Swiss Federal Research Station for fruit-growing, Viticulture and horticulture in Wädenswil, particularly Dante Carint for assistance in programming the data base, Heinrich Höhn and Werner Siegfried for their recommendations on assessing pesticide impacts. For comments on statistical analysis we thank Michael Siegrist and Ralph Hansmann. We appreciate comments from Gérard Gaillard, Thomas Köllner and Claudia Binder, as well as two anonymous reviewers on an earlier draft of this paper. We wish to thank Francis Hesford for proof reading of the article. 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