TOMS – 5301D MODELING BUSINESS DECISIONS
FALL 2013
Instructor:
Aaron L. Nsakanda, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Supply Chain
Management
office: 903 Dunton Tower, phone: 520-2600 ext. 2210
email: aaron_nsakanda@carleton.ca
office hours: By appointment only
Course location:
TBA
Timetable:
Mondays: 6:05pm – 8:55pm
A. COURSE OVERVIEW
Organizations of any kind around the world - private and public, large and small, forprofit and not-for-profit - are dealing in today's fast-paced and global competitive
environment with increasingly business situations that involve complexity and
uncertainty. Yet despite this operating world, some managers are very successful in
making bolder decisions with less risk and better outcomes, helping their organizations
to gain a competitive advantage by achieving notable improvements such as, to name a
few, higher revenue, lower costs, increased market share, greater productivity, faster
turnaround, or more efficient use of limited resources. Quantitative-based analysis has
been a source of assistance to many of these managers to help them coping with problems
in their processes and/or situation decisions with one or more of the following
conditions: great complexity, unfamiliarity, great risk.
This course introduces some of the important frameworks and quantitative analysis
methods available as tools for thinking to decision-makers in virtually all industries,
in almost all managerial and decision-making functions, and at most organizational
levels. The course also reviews how the real-life applications of these frameworks and
methods are helping to drive better business decisions to a variety of problems in
industries as wide ranging as transportation, telecommunication, banking, manufacturing,
health care, retailing, and natural resources; in both the private or public sectors; in
large or small corporations; and in for-profit or not-for-profit organizations.
The course emphasis will be on (a) optimization methods and how they enable to search
among virtually innumerable feasible options to narrow choices to the very best; (b)
decision analysis methods and how they help to develop an optimal strategy when a
decision maker is faced with several decision options and an uncertain or risk-filled
pattern of future events, and (c) simulation methods and how they provide the ability to
experiment different decision options on a computer to search or test ideas for
improvement. We will refer to these as management science thinking tools. The material
is organized to enable both technical and non-technical participants to appreciate the
value offered by these approaches, to become critical consumers, and to develop an
alternate thinking perspective in the way to approach some management situations.
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The format of the course consists of a mixture of lectures exposing the relevant
materials, case/article discussions on specific applications of management science,
presentations to peers, and in-class problem solving.
B. COURSE LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Upon completion of this course, students should:
(a) have an understanding of the strategic role of modeling in managerial decision making
and problem solving and develop an appreciation of the entire modeling process from
problem identification and formulation to solution development, implementation, and
evaluation.
(b) recognize which cases are amenable to different types of analysis, what is required
to find a good solution or even a best solution.
(c) develop an understanding on how to extract insights from management science models
and how to use them to communicate, persuade, and motivate change.
(d) learn how to become an End-User modeler capable of structuring problems to
effectively communicate with specialists/consultants or apply by themselves as
decision makers the management science thinking tools this course focuses upon to
solve management/business problems;
(e) learn about the resources available to managers in the use of modeling approaches and
how to leverage this knowledge to solve real-life business problems.
C. COURSE PREREQUISITE
BUSI 5801. The School of Business enforces prerequisites.
D. COURSE MATERIAL
1. Recommended textbook
Stevenson W. J., Ozgur C., and Nsakanda A. L.: An Introduction to Management Science
st
With Spreadsheets, 1 Canadian edition, McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 2009 (Hereafter SON).
This text is recommended, but only chapters indicated in the course schedule or its
parts are required (chapters 2, 3, 6, 10, and 13). These chapters are available for
purchase
at
https://create.mcgrawhill.com/shop/#/catalog/details/?isbn=9780390222565. They are provided to supplement
some of the technical concepts that will be briefly discussed in class.
2.
Class notes and readings
Instructor’s lecture notes will be available for download on CuLearn. While few
articles will be available through the CU library catalogue, a few number of cases
will
required
to
be
purchased
from
Harvard
Business
Publishing
(HBP):
https://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cbmp/access/20352442.
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We will use the following cases/articles:
TITLE
AVAILABILITY
o Ireland P., Case R., Fallis J., Van Dyke C., Kuehn J.,and
Meketon M.(2004): “The Canadian Pacific Railways Transforms
Operations by Using Models to Develop Its Operating Plans”.
Interfaces 34, no. 1, pp. 5-14.
CU library
catalogue
o Sonntag C., Grossman T.A. (1999): “End-User Modeling Improves
R&D Management at AgrEvo Canada Inc”. Interfaces 29, no. 6,
1999, pp 132-142 (available for download on CuLearn). Sonntag
C., Grossman T.A. (1999): “End-User Modeling Improves R&D
Management at AgrEvo Canada Inc”. Interfaces 29, no. 6, 1999,
pp 132-142.
CU library
catalogue
o
Merton Truck Company (Case # 9-189-163,
o
DHL Supply chain (Case # W12888-PDF-ENG, HBP, 3 pages)
HBP
o
Appshop, Inc (Case # UV0367, 2 pages).
HBP
o
Charles River Jazz Festival (Case # 5-893-004, HBP case, 7
pages).
HBP
HBP, 4 pages).
HBP
o Wivco Company Inc. (2 pages)
CuLearn
o
CuLearn
The Goferbroke company (5 pages).
3. Software
Excel/Excel solver will be used to implement some techniques presented in the course.
Arena
software
(www.arenasimulation.com/)
or
Crystal
Ball
(www.oracle.com/crystalball/index.html) will be used by the instructor to introduce
simulation models. TreePlan (www.treeplan.com/download.htm) will be used to implement
decision trees.
D. COURSE EVALUATION
The course evaluation will be based on four main activities:contribution to class
discussion, managerial reports on case studies, a presentation on a case study or an
article reporting an application of management science thinking tools, and a final exam.
The weighting of each activity is as follows:
Contribution to class discussion
Managerial reports (3)
Case-based/article presentation
Final exam
TOTAL
5%
35%
10%
50%
100%
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1 Contribution to class discussion (5%)
A considerable class time of this course will be devoted to discussion from selected
assigned readings. Each participant is required to read any assigned materials before
each class and participate in class discussions as actively and constructively as
possible. The instructor will evaluate the contribution to class participation on a
continuum from 0 to 5 using the following criteria (first class will not be
counted):
(a). Did the student participate in today’s class discussion?
(b). Was there evidence that the student’s participation in the discussion was based
on his or her knowledge of the required readings? Did the student really read
ALL readings assigned for a given class or was the student’s discussion based
only
on
his
or
her
past
experience
and/or
common
sense?
(c). Was the student’s discussion appropriate and to the point?
(d). Did the student contribute to class learning (e.g., by asking thoughtful
questions, helping to understand complicated ideas or concepts, offering
constructive criticism of another’s ideas, suggesting reasonable alternatives,
being willing to try out new ideas, pursuing the logic advanced by others,
etc.)?
No contribution to class discussion points will be given for a missed class.
2
Managerial reports (35%)
There will be 3 equally case-based assignments to be done in groups (number of
students per group to be determined) due, respectively, on week 4 (10%), week 5
(10%), and week 6 (15%). A managerial report of quality suitable for consulting
practice is required. It must include (a) a cover letter, (b) an executive summary
consisting of the more important results, conclusions, and recommendations; and if
needed, (c) the main body consisting of the detailed analysis, answers to the
assigned questions, assumptions and analyses that led to these answers. The
managerial reports are handed in on the due date at the beginning of each class. An
initial twenty (20) percentage points penalty applies to a late assignment and an
additional ten (10) percentage points per day thereafter. For example, an assignment
that would normally merit a grade of 80% would receive a grade of 60% if submitted
after the deadline on the due date, 50% if submitted the following day, and so on up
to 0%. Students are advised that managerial reports will not be returned back to them
after being marked. However, they will be available for consultation at the
instructor’s office. Be sure to keep a copy for yourself. The time limit for a
revision request is 1 week after the marks are communicated. Although discussions
between participants are encouraged, no collaboration is allowed between groups.
3
Case-based/article presentation (10%)
There will be a presentation based of either a case study or an article reporting the
application of management science thinking tools to drive better business decisions.
(see the section on the summary of deliverables below for due dates). Students in teams
will act as critical consumers who have been asked to present a management report to an
organization that is facing similar issues/challenges than the one described in the case
study or the article.
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The presentation should include at least the following:
 Brief synopsis of the case
 Background of the organization involved. Core issues/decision problems under
study and the general circumstances in which they have arisen? The justification
of management science approaches for solving the problem.
 Modeling process; objectives of the model; data collection, analysis, and
validation; model construction, verification, and validation.
 Benefits and pitfalls of the model and the modeling process. Technical
methodologies that were used and briefly explain them in simple language.
 Change management issues and implementation challenges involved (if any).
 Results & impacts; Critical factors for success.
 Limitations of current study, suggested improvements, learned lessons (if any).
The presentation will last up to 25 minutes followed with up to 15 minutes of Q&A and
class discussion. The presenter group will be required to prepare and submit (before the
class start) a set of power point slides on the content of the case/article and around
an analysis that provides answers to a set of suggested questions (to be provided by the
instructor). Each member in the group will be responsible for a part of the
presentation. The remaining student groups not presenting will be required to carefully
read the assigned materials prior to the class and prepare one or two questions to ask
(as a group) during the Q&A period. These questions must be not only thoughtful and
insightful but they should also carry a broader perspective to contribute to fruitful
class discussion and facilitate the class learning. A single typed page (single line
spacing, 12 points - Times New Roman font) containing the case’s title, the name of the
team members, and the questions will be collected by the instructor at the beginning of
the class.
4
Final exam (50%)
The final exam will be scheduled during the exam week (date TBA). It will be
comprehensive and will consist of a combination of case analyses and questions
requiring the use of models and the interpretations of solutions. Details will be
discussed in class.
E. DROP COURSE POLICY
Students can drop a course up until the END of the second week of classes. Students
that drop a class in the third week will receive a WDN but will automatically have the
grade changed to ABS. A grade of ABS is considered a failing grade. A required course
will have to be taken again. Students with medical reasons and supporting documentation
may petition the School to have the ABS grade changed back to WDN.
F. CONDUCT
Professional conduct is built upon the idea of mutual respect. Such conduct entails (but
is not necessarily limited to):
-
Attending the class.
Each class benefits from the attendance and participation of all participants.
Class attendance is mandatory. The participation grade will be affected by
absences. If any circumstances prevent attendance to the class, the participant
6 | Page
is responsible for all materials discussed, handouts distributed, assignments
covered, and announcements made.
-
Arriving on time.
Late arrivals are disruptive and show disrespect to those who are on time. Late
arrivals are not allowed.
-
Minimizing disruptions.
Participants are not allowed to leave and re-enter the class. All cell phones
and electronic communication devices must be turned off during class. If an
emergency situation requires keeping the cell phone turned on, it must be set
in the silent mode and it is advised that the instructor be informed prior to
the class starting. Participants should also avoid engaging in side
conversations after class has begun.
-
Focusing on the class.
Participants are not allowed to use laptops or hand-held devices for other
tasks than notes taking while in class. Activities such as net surfing, and
answering email are very disruptive both to neighbors and to the entire class.
-
Being prepared for class.
Participants must be ready to discuss any assigned readings and to answer any
assigned questions.
-
Respect.
Participants should act respectfully toward all class participants.
G. PLAGIARISM
Academic Integrity
Violations of academic integrity are a serious academic offence. Violations of
academic integrity – presenting another’s ideas, arguments, words or images as your
own, using unauthorized material, misrepresentation, fabricating or misrepresenting
research data, unauthorized co-operation or collaboration or completing work for
another student – weaken the quality of the degree and will not be tolerated.
Penalties may include expulsion; suspension from all studies at Carleton; suspension
from full-time studies; a refusal of permission to continue or to register in a
specific degree program; academic probation; and a grade of Failure in the course,
amongst others. Students are expected to familiarize themselves with and follow the
Carleton University Student Academic Integrity Policy which is available, along with
resources for compliance athttp://www2.carleton.ca/sasc/advisingcentre/academicintegrity/.
H. ACADEMIC ACCOMMODATIONS
1. Medical certificate
Please note that in all occasions that call for a medical certificate you must use or
furnish the information demanded in the standard university form.
http://www1.carleton.ca/registrar/forms/
7 | Page
2. Participants with disabilities
The Paul Menton Centre for Students with Disabilities (PMC) provides services
to students with Learning Disabilities (LD), psychiatric/mental health
disabilities, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Autism Spectrum
Disorders (ASD), chronic medical conditions, and impairments in mobility,
hearing, and vision. If you have a disability requiring academic
accommodations in this course, please contact PMC at 613-520-6608 or
pmc@carleton.ca for a formal evaluation. If you are already registered with
the PMC, contact your PMC coordinator to send me your Letter of Accommodation
at the beginning of the term, and no later than two weeks before the first inclass scheduled test or exam requiring accommodation (if applicable). After
requesting accommodation from PMC, meet with me to ensure accommodation
arrangements are made. Please consult the PMC website for the deadline to
request accommodations for the formally-scheduled exam (if applicable).
- The deadlines for contacting the Paul Menton Centre regarding accommodation
for final exams for the December 2013 exam period is November 8, 2013 and for
the April 2014 exam period is March 7, 2014.
For Religious Obligations:
Students requesting academic accommodation on the basis of religious
obligation should make a formal, written request to their instructors for
alternate dates and/or means of satisfying academic requirements. Such
requests should be made during the first two weeks of class, or as soon as
possible after the need for accommodation is known to exist, but no later than
two weeks before the compulsory event.
Accommodation is to be worked out directly and on an individual basis between
the student and the instructor(s) involved. Instructors will make
accommodations in a way that avoids academic disadvantage to the student.
Students or instructors who have questions or want to confirm accommodation
eligibility of a religious event or practice may refer to the Equity Services
website for a list of holy days and Carleton's Academic Accommodation
policies, or may contact an Equity Services Advisor in the Equity Services
Department for assistance.
3. Religious observance
Students requesting academic accommodation on the basis of religious
obligation should make a formal, written request to their instructors for
alternate dates and/or means of satisfying academic requirements. Such
requests should be made during the first two weeks of class, or as soon as
possible after the need for accommodation is known to exist, but no later than
two weeks before the compulsory event.
Accommodation is to be worked out directly and on an individual basis between
the student and the instructor(s) involved. Instructors will make
accommodations in a way that avoids academic disadvantage to the student.
Students or instructors who have questions or want to confirm accommodation
eligibility of a religious event or practice may refer to the Equity Services
website for a list of holy days and Carleton's Academic Accommodation
policies, or may contact an Equity Services Advisor in the Equity Services
Department for assistance.
8 | Page
4. Pregnancy
Pregnant students requiring academic accommodations are encouraged to contact
an Equity Advisor in Equity Services to complete a letter of accommodation.
The student must then make an appointment to discuss her needs with the
instructor at least two weeks prior to the first academic event in which it is
anticipated the accommodation will be required.
I. CHANGES TO THE SYLLABUS
Every effort has been made to make the course outline as complete as possible, but there
may be occasions when changes are required. The instructor will announce any deviations
from the course outline in class and the change will be posted on the course web page.
K. MBA Academic year (Fall 2013)
Important
Dates
and
Deadlines
can
http://sprott.carleton.co/students/mba/dates-deadlines/.
be
found
at:
9 | Page
L. TENTATIVE SCHEDULE
Week
Topics/Agenda
Introduction to business
modeling with management
science approaches
1
(Sep 9)
Thinking simultaneously using
linear programming (LP) models
– Basics, problem framing,
graphical solution method
Solving LP using Excel
2
(Sept 16)
LP - Problem framing, solution
interpretation and managerial
insights
Case presentation and
discussion
Thinking simultaneously using
integer linear programming
(ILP) Models
3
(Sept 23)
Readings
o Instructor’s notes on the introduction
to MBD (document MBD # LN-1, available
for download on CuLearn).
o
Instructor’s notes on LP (document MBD #
LN-2,
available
for
download
on
CuLearn).
o Chapter 2 (SON, sections 2.1, 2.2, 2.4,
2.5, and 2.8).
o Instructor’s notes on solving LP with
Excel solver (document MBD # LN-3,
available for download on CuLearn).
Reading cases:
o Wivco Company Inc., 2 pages (available
for download on CuLearn).
o Merton Truck Company (Case # 9-189-163,
4
pages,
see
Harvard
Business
Publishing).
o Instructor’s
notes
on
sensitivity
analysis (document MBD # LN-4, available
for download on CuLearn).
o Chapter 3 (SON, sections 3.1, 3.3, and
3.5).
o Ireland P., Case R., Fallis J., Van Dyke
C., Kuehn J.,and Meketon M.(2004): “The
Canadian Pacific Railways Transforms
Operations by Using Models to Develop
Its Operating Plans”. Interfaces 34, no.
1, pp. 5-14 (available for download –
see CU Library catalogue).
o Instructor’s
lecture
notes
on
ILP
(document MBD # LN-5, available for
download on CuLearn).
o Chapter 6 (SON, sections 6.1-6.6, and
section 6.8).
o
Case presentation and
discussion
ILP - Problem framing, solution
interpretation and managerial
insights
Sonntag C., Grossman T.A. (1999): “EndUser Modeling Improves R&D Management
at AgrEvo Canada Inc”. Interfaces 29,
no. 6, 1999, pp 132-142 (available for
download – see CU Library catalogue).
Reading cases:
o DHL Supply Chain Case (Case # w12889, 2
pages, see Harvard Business Publishing)
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(cont’d)
Week
4
(Sept 30)
Topics/Agenda
Modeling business problems under
risk - analyzing sequential
decisions
Managerial report # 1 due
5
(Oct 7)
Simulation in the analysis of
problems involving complexity and
uncertainty
Managerial report # 2 due
6
(oct 17,
TBA)
Course wrap-up and challenges
ahead
Managerial report # 3 due
Case presentation and discussion
7
(Oct 21)
Readings
Reading cases:
o The
Goferbroke
company
(5
pages,
available for download on CuLearn).
o Appshop, Inc (Case # UV0367, 2 pages,
see Harvard Business Publishing).
Other materials:
o Instructor’s notes on DA (document MBD
# LN-6, available for download on
CuLearn).
o Chapter 10 (SON, sections 10.5, 10.7,
and 10.7).
Merton Truck Company (Case # 9-189-163, 4
pages, see Harvard Business Publishing).
Reading case:
o Appshop, Inc. (Cont’d).
Other materials:
o Instructor’s
notes
on
simulation
(document MBD # LN-7, available for
download on CuLearn).
o Chapter 13 (sections 13.6-13.11).
DHL Supply Chain Case (Case # W12888-PDFENG, 3 pages, see
Harvard Business
Publishing)
o Instructor’s closing notes (document
MBD # LN-8, available for download on
CuLearn).
o Charles River Jazz Festival (Case # 5893-004, HBS case, 7 pages, see Harvard
Business Publishing).
o Final exam (during the regular class time)