GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH INTENDING TO BUY MORE PREFER VALUE ADD/ OPPORTUNISTIC ASSETS Gradual recovery of real estate investment after GFC underpins strong buying intentions Investors continue to move up the risk curve 10-15 EXPECT % MORE CAPITAL INTO REAL ESTATE IN 2015 1. Asset pricing 2. Availability 3. Competition The positive buying momentum will support continued growth in global real estate capital flows City ranking show sustained interest in gateway cities there is stronger sentiment towards tier two markets TOP. 1 LONDON 2 TOKYO TOKYO TOP. TOP. 2 TOP. 3 SAN FRANCISCO Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. 4 TOKYO SYDNEY TOP. TOP. 2 Stronger cross-regional investment appetite: 38% indicating they plan to invest outside their own region 11% CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE 31% WESTERN EUROPE 20% NORTH AMERICA 27 % ASIA 1% 4 % AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST SOUTH AMERICA 7% PACIFIC TOP. 5 NEW YORK TOP. 6 MADRID TOP. 7 DALLAS TOP. 8 LOS ANGELES TOP. 9 SEATTLE TOP. 10 PARIS Executive Summary The 2015 Global Investor Intentions Survey shows that global real estate investors remain confident and their intentions are strongly expansionary. The appetite for cross-regional investment is increasing and more investors intend to deploy capital outside their own region this year. Despite the strong liquidity in the investment market, investors are concerned about the intense competition for assets. Pricing is identified as the biggest obstacle to making acquisitions. There continue to be worries over economic weakness but there are encouraging signs of recovery in the U.S. and sustained growth in Asia. Tighter yields in most markets are prompting investors in EMEA and North America to place a stronger emphasis on value add and opportunistic investments for higher returns. In contrast, investors in Asia Pacific intend to increase their focus on acquiring core assets in 2015. This trend is partly due to the increased participation of long-term low risk-tolerant institutional investors both from Asia and internationally. The survey suggests that in the coming year investors are likely to rebalance their portfolios and switch from market sectors that are perceived to be overpriced. Second tier and smaller cities are gaining popularity but London remains the preferred city. Offices are the favoured asset class whilst retail is lagging. Alternative property sectors such as student living, healthcare and retirement homes are seeing stronger interest. Overall, the mood among investors remains upbeat and buying demand will exceed selling pressure. CBRE believes 2015 will be another strong year for the global real estate investment market, with capital flows expected to increase by 10-15%. 4| CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 Capital Flows into Global Real Estate Surge to Post-GFC high 360 297 225 419 174 185 152 184 The “new normal” economic environment of moderate growth, low interest rates and falling bond yields continued to drive investment in commercial real estate in 2014, supported by the inherent qualities of property as an asset class. 96 62 2007 2008 APAC EMEA 6.1 % 152 184 164 96 62 2007 2008 APAC 109 76 48 2009 EMEA 249 302 126 2014 Offices Retail Industrial 5.6% 6.6% 6.3% 7.2 6.9% 5.2% APAC EMEA 5.8% Offices 4.7% Retail Industrial 3.3% 297 185 107 2013 Figure 3: Rental value growth by sector and region 2014 AMERICAS 225 412 90 2012 Source: CBRE Research, April 2015. 0.8% 368 81 2011 AMERICAS AMERICAS 360 168 79 2010 % Figure 1: Real estate investment turnover by region 174 302 8.4% 8.2% 4.3% 419 2009 412 368 Figure 2: Capital value growth by sector and region 2014 Capital flows into global real estate increased to US$835 billion in 2014, a figure almost four times greater than the US$232 billion recorded in 2009. EMEA posted the greatest increase in capital flows in 2014, followed by Asia Pacific and the Americas (Figure 1). On the back of the ample liquidity, capital values have outpaced more moderate rental value growth, resulting in tighter yields (Figures 2 and 3). Total cross border capital flows into all types of investment, including stocks and bonds, have been level over the past three years (Figure 4), reflecting the general nervousness about the global economy. By contrast, capital flows into real estate have picked up sharply. We think this trend will continue in 2015. 249 164 109 76 48 168 2.7%2.5% 1.4% APAC 0.8% EMEA Source: CBRE Research, April 2015. $ Billion 79 81 90 107 126 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 14,000 1200 12,000 1000 10,000 800 8,000 AMERICAS 600 6,000 Source: CBRE Research, Real Capital Analytics, April 2015. 4,000 Note: Investment sales volumes, in U.S. dollars 2,000 8.4% 8.2% 6.1% 5.6% 6.6% 6.3% Offices Retail Industrial 7.2% 6.9% 0 400 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Global Capital Flows into All Asset Classes (LHS) Global Real Estate Capital Flows (RHS) 5.2% |5 5.8% Offices 4.7% 4.3% Retail Industrial 3.3 % 2.7%2.5% 1.4% 0.8% APAC AMERICAS 0.8% EMEA Figure 4: Global real estate capital flows vs. global capital flows $ Billion 14,000 1200 12,000 1000 10,000 800 8,000 600 6,000 400 4,000 200 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Global Capital Flows into All Asset Classes (LHS) Global Real Estate Capital Flows (RHS) Source: Mckinsey, CBRE Research, April 2015. 6| CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH 0 GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 Global Investors are Upbeat Our view on the continued buoyancy of real estate capital flows is supported by our survey. Investor intentions for 2015 remain strongly expansionary (Figure 5). Fifty-three percent of respondents said they plan to increase their purchases this year, a slight decline on the 61% recorded in the 2014 survey. Last year was a particularly strong one for global real estate investment and it is natural for investor intentions to moderate slightly. Figure 6: Main obstacle to acquiring assets 1% Other Cost or Availability % of Debt 1 Lack of Investment % Partners 1 % Tax 1 Currency Risk Low Market Transparency Figure 5: Purchasing activity compared to last year 61 % 2015 2014 53% 32% 33% % 14 8 % Lower Activity The Same Higher Activity Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. However, not all of this investment demand will be % % intense satisfied as investors globally are facing competition for assets at price levels that provide % % 6). Fifty percent of desired returns (Figure respondents identified asset pricing as the top obstacle to acquiring assets, a significant increase on last year, when 30% reported it as the main challenge. The tight availability of assets (21%) and competition from other investors (19%) were also identified as obstacles all regions. 2014 2015 2014in 2015F 53 19 39 2% 4% 10-15 NET BUYING INTENTIONS ANNUAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL REAL Balance of higher minus lower ESTATE CAPITAL FLOWS Nevertheless, investor intentions purchasing activity 19% Competition from other Investors 50 % remain very positive. On the basis of the relationship between survey sentiment and investment volumes in previous years, CBRE predicts that global real estate investment volume will increase by 10-15% in 2015 (Figure 7), from 19% in 2014. % Asset Pricing 21 Availability of Assets Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. |7 32 33 % % % 14 % 8 Lower Activity The Same Higher Activity Figure 7: Projected increase in global real estate investment volume 53% 2014 39% 19% 10-15% 2015 2014 2015F NET BUYING INTENTIONS Balance of higher minus lower purchasing activity ANNUAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL REAL ESTATE CAPITAL FLOWS Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, CBRE Research, April 2015. 8| CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH 44% 2 38% GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 20152% 14% 28% 8 Cross-Border Investment: Stronger Appetite 17 Investors 22 Led by North American % % % 2014 The globalisation of commercial real estate investment was reflected by the 40% y-o-y growth in cross-regional capital flows in 2014, a figure well above the overall market (19% y-o-y). This trend is expected to continue and is supported by the survey findings of investors’ intentions to invest outside their region of domicile. Investors’ appetite for cross-regional investment (investors from EMEA, North America and Asia Pacific investing outside their own region) grew significantly, with 38% of respondents saying they intend to invest outside their own region this year, up from only 28% in 2014 (Figure 8). Figure 8: Will you invest outside your own region? 2% 38% 2% 14% 28% 8% 17% 22% 2014 Less Purchasing 2015 Same Level of Purchasing More Purchasing Less Purchasing 2015 Same Level of Purchasing More Purchasing Figure 9: Cross-regional investment intentions by region 44% 40% 38% 36% 38 % 37 % 2015 2014 28% 14% APAC EMEA AMERICAS GLOBAL Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. The increase was largely due to more North American investors intending to invest internationally (Figure 9). The economic picture in the U.S. continues to strengthen and is boosting investor confidence. This is underpinning demand among domestic investors to place capital not only within the country, but also in overseas markets. The improved purchasing power of the U.S. dollar is also supporting the flow of U.S. capital into other regions. However, investment returns and diversification remain the most important factors supporting outbound investment. Asia Pacific investors have the strongest appetite for outbound investment at 40%, although the figure was slightly down on last year. Cross-border real estate investment by Asian investors surged by 23% y-o-y in 2014. Many groups in this region are likely to slow the pace of building up their global property holdings after expanding so rapidly in recent years. This is supported by the survey findings that fewer Asian investors plan to increase the amount they invest outside the region compared to last year. Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. 40 % 36% 38 % 38% 37 % 28% 2015 2014 |9 Preferred Region: Western Europe is the Top Destination Among investors looking to invest outside their own region, 31% of respondents identified Western Europe as the top destination (Figure 10), which is also the region that received the vast majority of cross-border investment. Despite the slowdown in China, 27% of investors regarded Asia as their preferred location, perhaps due to the fact that economic growth here still comfortably outpaces other regions and continues to offer significant long-term potential. Eleven percent of respondents identified Central and Eastern Europe as their top destination, a huge result relative to the size of these markets. Whilst markets in this region are small, they are showing distinct signs of economic revival, prompting investors to take an interest. Figure 10: Preferred region for cross-border investment 31% 20% WESTERN EUROPE NORTH AMERICA 11% CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE 27 % ASIA 7% 4% PACIFIC SOUTH AMERICA 1% AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. 10 | 30%30% CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH % 2015 2014 31 GLOBAL INVESTOR SURVEY 2015 % INTENTIONS % 20 % 11 CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE NORTH AMERICA Preferred Cities: 27 % London Retains Top Spot but Second-tier Cities Gain Popularity ASIA 7% London retained its position as the top city for investment, although investor intentions were flat on a yearover-year basis. Other PACIFICin the top ten 4% gateway cities such as Tokyo, Sydney, New York and Paris remained (Figure 11). SOUTH AMERICA 1% There is much stronger interest in secondAFRICA tier ANDcities this year, with the likes of Madrid, Dallas and Seattle MIDDLE EAST all making the top ten. Yields in gateway cities in EMEA and North America have already compressed to a point where investors feel compelled to search for opportunities elsewhere. This is also linked to the marked increase in appetite among investors from EMEA and North America for value add and opportunistic investments. Figure 11: Preferred cities for investment 30%30% 2015 2014 22% 16% % 19 18 16% % 8% Investment Turnover Y-o-Y Change Based on US$ 15% 5% -11% 58% 126% 24% 15% LONDON TOKYO SAN FRANCISCO SYDNEY NEW YORK 14%14% 14% 13% 12% 10% % 7 % 5% 5% 6 98% 11% 30% MADRID DALLAS LOS ANGELES 3% 51% SEATTLE PARIS Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey 2015, Real Capital Analytics, April 2015. | 11 12 | CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 Preferred Sectors: Offices Favoured; Retail Lagging 33% 33% 2015 2014 29% 28% 17% Office and industrial remain the preferred sectors, selected by 33% and 28% of investors, respectively, percentages virtually unchanged from last year’s survey (Figure 12). 14% 16% 18% 16%15% sector and the growth of e-commerce. However, there 10% % 8 this sector is a limited amount of assets in 7 % available 4% 3to% find% % 3% 4%continue for sale, meaning that investors will 2 2 it challenging to source deals (Figure 13). Offices All Industrial Logistics All Retail Residential Shopping Hotels/ Retail Retail - Industrial - Big Centre Resorts High Street Other Box/Warehouse Figure 13: Imbalance in investor intentions vs. actual activity With the exception of North America, investor interest in retail assets continues to fade as structural changes in the sector such as the rise of e-commerce and other new formats discourages investment. Decline in investor interest in retail may also be explained by the fact that it is a more challenging sector to manage, as large shopping centres in many markets are tied up in REITs and high street retail units have small lot sizes and are consequently difficult to build up into large holdings. 38% 33% 28% 16 21% % That said, CBRE expects to see a consumer revival in most regions in the coming year – indeed one is already taking place in the North America – and believes retail still offers significant opportunities for investors and should not be overlooked. Office 15% 16 % Retail Main Inbalance 12% Residential Industrial Sector Attractiveness in 2015 Survey Investment Turnover in 2014 as % of Total Investor interest in industrial and logistics assets is being driven by the structural change in the retail Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. Figure 12: Preferred sector for investment 33% 33% 2015 2014 29 28 % % 17% 14% 16% 18% 16%15% 10% 8% 3 4 % Offices All Industrial Logistics All Retail Residential Shopping Centre Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. % Hotels/ Resorts 7% 4% 3% 2% 2% Retail Retail - Industrial - Big High Street Other Box/Warehouse | 13 Growing Demand for Alternative Sectors Figure 14: Investor interest in alternative sectors Real Estate Debt 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Student Living Healthcare Retirement Living Leisure/Entertainment Infrastructure Data Centre Self-Storage Automotive/Car Parks Already Invested Interested Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. Keen competition for assets has propelled investment demand for alternative sectors (Figure 14). Investment interest in most alternative sectors outpaces existing investment. Real estate debt is the preferred option this year as investment is being supported by the availability of debt products such as CMBS. 2015 Sectors recording 2014 is strong interest in strong growth in interest included student living, healthcare and retirement living. There these niche residential sectors, supported by the trend of growth in higher education and ageing populations. 51% 43% % 27 26 25% % 20% 5% 2% Prime or Core Assets 14 | Good Secondary Value Add/ Opportunistic Distressed Assets CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 Risk Preference: Asia Pacific Investors Focus on Core; EMEA and U.S. Buyers Look for Value Add 0% Real Estate Debt 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Student Living Healthcare Retirement Living Leisure/Entertainment Infrastructure Data Centre Self-Storage Investors indicated that they are moving up the risk curve in search of higher returns. Around half of survey respondents said that they will focus on value add and opportunistic investments this year, up from 43% in the 2014 survey (Figure 15). EMEA and North America both saw a marked increase in investor interest in value add and opportunistic investments (Figure 16), as indicated by the increased appetite for assets in second-tier markets. In contrast, Asia Pacific saw a significant jump to 43% in this year’s survey compared to 29% in last year’s survey in the percentage of investors preferring prime or core assets. Risk appetite in this region is now polarised at each end of the spectrum. This is due to the strong desire for wealth preservation in a region where savings rates are high together Automotive/Car Parks with increased participation by Asian and international institutional investors which have Already Invested Interested relatively low risk profiles. Figure 15: Preferred asset type for purchase 51 % 2015 2014 43% 26% 27 % 25% % 20 5% 2% Prime or Core Assets Good Secondary Value Add/ Opportunistic Distressed Assets Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. Figure 16: Risk profile by region 64% 43% Prime or Core Assets Good Secondary Value Add/ Opportunistic Distressed Assets 40% 38% 29% 11% 21% 30% 5% APAC 2% EMEA 14% AMERICAS Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. 69% | 15 64% Prime or Core Assets Good Secondary Value Add/ Opportunistic Distressed Assets Investment Vehicle: 43 Direct Partnership Investing % 40% and38 Remain the Norm 29 % % 21% 30 Over the past few years investors have invested via direct channels and partnerships for reasons of control % % over their portfolios and strategies. Many buyers were caught with illiquid fund holdings after the onset of the global financial crisis and were unable to% make a quick exit.%Costs can be lower with direct joint venture 2 preferences will continue in the coming year. That said, a 5% (Figure 17) shows these investing. The survey considerable percentage of responses (45%) indicate a preference to invest via funds. This is linked to the recovery in global APACprivate equity fund raising EMEAactivity. AMERICAS 11 14 Figure 17: Principal types of investment vehicles 69% 54% 45% 29% 20% 8% 8% 7% 5% Direct Partnership / Property Joint Venture Fund REIT Private Listed CMBS Debt Real Estate Company Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. Note: multiple responses were allowed. 16 | CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH Other Equity Other Debt GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 Strong Pricing to Drive Portfolio Rebalancing advisors who really understand the local market in order to meet their investment goals. Respondents identified overpricing and economic slowdown/weakness as the main threats to property markets in the coming year (Figure 18). There is also increased concern about the potential for financial and political crises. Despite these worries, CBRE believes the global real estate market will continue to offer good spreads with a modicum of rental growth. Investors showed significantly lower concern over tapering in the U.S., rising interest rates and/ or the threat of inflation. Only 5% of respondents selected this as the biggest threat, down from 24% in 2014. Two reasons for the drop are the greater clarity provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the stronger performance of the U.S. economy. This has also boosted the acceptance that the Fed will increase interest rates later in 2015. Further loosening by central banks elsewhere has also helped lower concerns over interest rates. Higher interest rates and lending costs are challenges that investors will need to prepare for, but not for the next couple of years. Investors are set to increase their selling activity in the coming year (Figure 19) as they look to rebalance their portfolios and offload non-core assets. They may switch from market sectors that are perceived to be overpriced to assets that provide higher returns. However, buying demand will still exceed supply. Given investors’ intentions to increase investment in 2015 alongside the challenge of a very competitive marketplace, they will need to work hard and be creative; be proactive in locating assets; and choose Figure 18: Main threats to property markets 22% 2014 14% 14% 2014 2014 8% 8% 6% 5% 2% 2015 Perception that Economic slowdown/ Other financial / property has become weakness elsewhere political crisis ** over-priced in the world Overbuilding / excess supply Domestic economic Government policy US tapering, Inability of measures / policies measures relating rising interest rates investors to source to property and / or threat new debt of inflation Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. ** Includes China hard landing and failure of Abenomics. | 17 HIGHER SELLING ACTIVITY 42% HIGHER BUYING ACTIVITY 53% Conclusion The 2015 Global Investor Intentions Survey shows that global real estate investors remain confident and their intentions are strongly expansionary. The appetite for cross-regional investment is increasing and more investors intend to deploy capital outside their own region during 2015. Many investors plan to move up the risk curve in search of higher yields, a trend that is expected to result in a stronger focus on value add and opportunistic investments in the coming year. Whilst pricing and potential interest rate hikes remain a concern, CBRE believes that 2015 will be another strong year for the global real estate investment market, with capital flows expected to increase by 10%-15%. 18 | CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2015 About the Survey Figure 20: Composite of survey respondents investor type Bank Private Individual Investors / Family Office 3 3 % % Other 36 36 7 % 9 %% 17 Property company 9 1710%Property % 15 company 10% 15%REIT Institutional % Private Equity Firm / Venture Capital Fund or Asse Manager % Fund or Asset % % 3 3 Manager % % 7 Private Individual Bank Investors / Family Office Other Private Equity Firm / Venture % Capital REIT Institutional Investor* Investor* Source: CBRE Investor Intentions Survey, April 2015. * Institutional investors include pension funds, insurance companies and Sovereign Wealth Funds. The 2015 Global Investor Intentions Survey was conducted using an online questionnaire in January 2015. Weighting by Capital Flow Responses were obtained from more than 700 real estate investors in the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific from a broad range of investor types % including asset managers, property companies, institutional investors, REITs, investors and banks. 100 49% By region, 317 responses were obtained in Asia Pacific; 290 in EMEA; and 85 in the Americas. 36 % The global survey results were formulated by weighting the survey responses according to real estate capital flows in all three regions. 15% Weighting by Survey Capital Flow Number of Survey Respondents % Global 100 Global 692 49% America 85 Survey % 36 EMEA Survey 290 15% APAC 317 Survey Number of Respondents 692 America Survey 85 EMEA Survey 290 APAC Survey 317 | 19 For more information about this report, please contact: Ada Choi Senior Director, APAC Research +852 2820 2871 ada.choi@cbre.com.hk Iryna Pylypchuk Director, Global Research + 49 (0)69 170077 92 iryna.pylypchuk@cbre.com Michael Haddock Senior Director, EMEA Research +44 (0)20 7182 3274 Michael.haddock@cbre.com Jeanette Rice Americas Head of Investment Research +1 214 979 6169 jeanette.rice@cbre.com For more information regarding CBRE Research, please contact: Nick Axford, Ph.D. Global Head of Research +44 20 7182 2876 nick.axford@cbre.com Richard Barkham, Ph.D., MRICS Global Chief Economist +44 0 20 7182 2665 richard.barkham@cbre.com Spencer Levy Head of Research, Americas +1 410 951 8443 spencer.levy@cbre.com Follow Spencer on Twitter: @SpencerGLevy Henry Chin, Ph.D. Head of Research, Asia Pacific +852 2820 8160 henry.chin@cbre.com.hk Neil Blake, Ph.D. Head of Research, EMEA +44 20 7182 2133 neil.blake@cbre.com Follow Neil on Twitter: @neilblake123 Follow CBRE To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at www.cbre.com/researchgateway Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. Printed on recycled paper © CBRE Ltd. 2015