Afghanistan!Presidential!Approval!Rating!Poll!

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Afghanistan!Presidential!Approval!Rating!Poll!
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November!1,!2014!
Executive!Summary!
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This!survey!intends!to!measure!the!Afghan!public’s!views!towards!their!new!president,!Ashraf!Ghani,!
a! month! after! he! was! inaugurated.! The! poll! of! 2,745! people! across! all! 34! Afghan! provinces,!
conducted! by! ATR! Consulting,! found! that! 84! percent! of! the! Afghan! population! is! satisfied! with! the!
performance! of! the! president,! who! was! sworn! into! office! in! late! September! 2014! after! a! lengthy!
electoral! dispute.! The! survey! was! conducted! in! conjunction! with! TOLOnews,! Afghanistan’s! leading!
television!news!source.!The!survey!took!place!Oct.!22L29!and!was!conducted!by!phone!from!Kabul.!
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How$satisfied$are$you$with$President$Ashraf$Ghani’s$performance?$
!
100%!
90%!
80%!
70%!
60%!
59,9%!
50%!
40%!
24,1%!
30%!
20%!
6,2%!
10%!
9,8%!
0%!
Very!saUsfied!
Moderately!
saUsfied!
Not!saUsfied!
Figure!1:!Nationwide!findings!–!October!2014!
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No!opinion!
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The! majority! (59.9%)! of! the! Afghan! population! is! very! satisfied! with! the! performance! of!
President!Ashraf!Ghani!indicating!the!overall!public!approval!of!the!new!President!in!office.!
•
Nearly!one!quarter!(24.1%)!of!the!population!is!moderately!satisfied!with!the!performance!
of!President!Ashraf!Ghani.!!
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Negative!opinions!of!Ghani!remain!relatively!low!at!only!6.2%!
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Close! to! one! tenth! of! the! respondents! are! undecided! about! the! President’s! performance!
and!have!no!opinion!at!9.8%.!
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Sample!and!methodology!
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ATR! Consulting! randomly! called! 2745! people! across! all! 34! provinces! of! the! country! and! asked! the!
following! question! provided! by! TOLOnews:! “How$ satisfied$ are$ you$ with$ President$ Ashraf$ Ghani’s$
performance?”!The!respondents!could!select!only!one!out!of!four!possible!answers:!‘Very$satisfied’,$
‘Moderately$satisfied’,$‘Not$satisfied$at$all’$or!‘I$do$not$know$/$No$opinion’.!!
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The!survey!took!place!Oct.!22L29!in!Kabul.!
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ATR! utilized! an! algorithm! to! generate! more! than! 20! million! phone! numbers! at! random.! Mobile!
numbers!were!filtered!on!regional!codes!to!select!for!regions.!Surveyors!then!worked!through!the!list!
to! determine! which! numbers! were! attributed,! interviewing! those! respondents! who! were! willing! to!
give! their! feedback.! To! ensure! the! highest! possible! degree! of! access! to! female! respondents,! all!
surveyors!were!women.!!
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The!delivery!of!questions!was!such!as!to!be!as!impartial!as!possible,!and!negate!any!opportunities!for!
surveyors!to!lead!the!respondent!or!have!a!bearing!on!results!in!any!way.!All!respondents!were!read!
the!question!with!the!exact!wording!including!the!four!possible!answers.!The!confidence!level!is!95!
percent.!The!margin!of!error!for!each!category!is!shown!in!the!chart!below:!
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Demographic!
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Sample!Size!
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Margin!of!Error!(+/R!%)!
TOTAL!
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2745!
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1.87!
Men!
!
1940!
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2.22!
Women!
!
805!
!
3.45!
Rural!
!
1154!
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2.88!
Urban!
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1591!
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2.46!
Below!29!
!
1017!
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3.07!
Above!30!
!
1728!
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2.36!
Kabul!City!
!
527!
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4.27!
Central!Region!(incl.!Kabul!City)!
!
812!
!
3.44!
Northern!Region!
!
462!
!
4.56!
Eastern!Region!
!
504!
!
4.37!
Southern!Region!
!
470!
!
4.52!
Western!Region!
!
497!
!
4.42!
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Table!1:!Sample!size!and!margin!of!error!by!demographic!
!
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Given!that!it!is!a!bigger!challenge!to!reach!women!by!phone!in!Afghanistan!rather!than!men,!a!quota!
was! applied! for! men! and! women! in! each! region! (70%! men! and! 30%! women).! Results! were! then!
weighted! first! within! each! region! to! ensure! equal! representation! of! male! and! female! respondents!
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(50%!/!50%).!Nationwide!results!were!then!reached!by!weighting!results!by!region.!according!to!the!
national!population!distribution.*!!!!!
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Detailed!Findings!
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CONTEXT!
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The! survey! was! conducted! approximately! one! month! after! President! Ashraf! Ghani! took! office.! The!
survey!is!scheduled!to!take!place!again!after!the!first!100!days!of!Ghani’s!presidency.!!
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REGIONAL!RESULTS!
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Central!Region!
Includes! Bamyan,! Daikundi,! Kabul,! Kapisa,! Logar,! Panjsher,! Parwan! and!
Wardak!
Northern!Region! Includes! Badakhshan,! Baghlan,! Balkh,! Faryab,! Jawzjan,! Kunduz,! Samangan,!
SarLi!Pul!and!Takhar!
Eastern!Region!
Includes!Khost,!Kunar,!Laghman,!Nangarhar,!Nuristan,!Paktya!and!Paktika,!
Southern!Region! Includes!Ghazni,!Helmand,!Kandahar,!Nimroz,!Uruzgan!and!Zabul!
Western!Region! Includes!Badghis,!Farah,!Ghor!and!Herat!
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!All!population!data!is!taken!from!the!Afghan!Central!Statistics!Office!2012!data!
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Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!region!
Kabul!
Central!
North!
East!
South!
West!
100%!
90%!
80,5%!
80%!
70%!
60%!
58,1%!
56,3%! 57,3%!
55,4%!
54,4%!
50%!
40%!
31,5%!
29,0%!
30%!
20%!
29,7%!
24,1%!
20,8%!
13,7%!
3,5%! 5,4%!
10%!
7,1%!
9,3%! 8,2%!
1,0%!
14,5%!
11,5%!
9,2%!
7,6%!
6,9%!
4,8%!
0%!
Very!sa4sfied!
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Moderately!sa4sfied!
Not!sa4sfied!
No!opinion!
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Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!gender!
Male!
Female!
100%!
80%!
60%!
61,7%! 58,1%!
40%!
24,0%! 24,3%!
20%!
6,3%! 6,1%!
7,9%! 11,5%!
Not!sa3sfied!
No!opinion!
0%!
Very!sa3sfied!
Moderately!
sa3sfied!
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Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!
se2lement!rural/urban)!
Rural!
Urban!
100%!
80%!
60%!
60,8%!
57,0%!
40%!
22,0%!
31,0%!
20%!
6,8%! 4,2%!
10,4%! 7,8%!
Not!sa3sfied!
No!opinion!
0%!
Very!sa3sfied!
Moderately!
sa3sfied!
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Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!age!
Under!30!
70,0%!
60,0%!
57,1%!
Above!30!
62,3%!
50,0%!
40,0%!
27,9%!
30,0%!
24,3%!
20,0%!
9,3%! 8,3%!
5,6%! 5,1%!
10,0%!
0,0%!
Very!sa3sfied!
Moderately!
sa3sfied!
Not!sa3sfied!
No!opinion!
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TOLOnews!commissioned!ATR!Consulting!to!conduct!a! series!
of!presidential!approval!ratings!polls!throughout!the!first!year!
of!President!Ashraf!Ghani’s!office.!ATR!is!an!Afghan!consulting!
firm!established!in!Kabul!in!2012.!!
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The! detailed! methodology! is! available! on! ATR! Consulting’s!
website.!!
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For! all! enquiries! about! the! methodology! and! phone! survey,!
please!contact!polling@tolonews.com!
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