Afghanistan!Presidential!Approval!Rating!Poll!
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! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! ! Afghanistan!Presidential!Approval!Rating!Poll! ! November!1,!2014! Executive!Summary! ! This!survey!intends!to!measure!the!Afghan!public’s!views!towards!their!new!president,!Ashraf!Ghani,! a! month! after! he! was! inaugurated.! The! poll! of! 2,745! people! across! all! 34! Afghan! provinces,! conducted! by! ATR! Consulting,! found! that! 84! percent! of! the! Afghan! population! is! satisfied! with! the! performance! of! the! president,! who! was! sworn! into! office! in! late! September! 2014! after! a! lengthy! electoral! dispute.! The! survey! was! conducted! in! conjunction! with! TOLOnews,! Afghanistan’s! leading! television!news!source.!The!survey!took!place!Oct.!22L29!and!was!conducted!by!phone!from!Kabul.! ! How$satisfied$are$you$with$President$Ashraf$Ghani’s$performance?$ ! 100%! 90%! 80%! 70%! 60%! 59,9%! 50%! 40%! 24,1%! 30%! 20%! 6,2%! 10%! 9,8%! 0%! Very!saUsfied! Moderately! saUsfied! Not!saUsfied! Figure!1:!Nationwide!findings!–!October!2014! ! ! No!opinion! ! • The! majority! (59.9%)! of! the! Afghan! population! is! very! satisfied! with! the! performance! of! President!Ashraf!Ghani!indicating!the!overall!public!approval!of!the!new!President!in!office.! • Nearly!one!quarter!(24.1%)!of!the!population!is!moderately!satisfied!with!the!performance! of!President!Ashraf!Ghani.!! 1! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! • Negative!opinions!of!Ghani!remain!relatively!low!at!only!6.2%! • Close! to! one! tenth! of! the! respondents! are! undecided! about! the! President’s! performance! and!have!no!opinion!at!9.8%.! 2! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! ! Sample!and!methodology! ! ATR! Consulting! randomly! called! 2745! people! across! all! 34! provinces! of! the! country! and! asked! the! following! question! provided! by! TOLOnews:! “How$ satisfied$ are$ you$ with$ President$ Ashraf$ Ghani’s$ performance?”!The!respondents!could!select!only!one!out!of!four!possible!answers:!‘Very$satisfied’,$ ‘Moderately$satisfied’,$‘Not$satisfied$at$all’$or!‘I$do$not$know$/$No$opinion’.!! ! The!survey!took!place!Oct.!22L29!in!Kabul.! ! ! ATR! utilized! an! algorithm! to! generate! more! than! 20! million! phone! numbers! at! random.! Mobile! numbers!were!filtered!on!regional!codes!to!select!for!regions.!Surveyors!then!worked!through!the!list! to! determine! which! numbers! were! attributed,! interviewing! those! respondents! who! were! willing! to! give! their! feedback.! To! ensure! the! highest! possible! degree! of! access! to! female! respondents,! all! surveyors!were!women.!! ! The!delivery!of!questions!was!such!as!to!be!as!impartial!as!possible,!and!negate!any!opportunities!for! surveyors!to!lead!the!respondent!or!have!a!bearing!on!results!in!any!way.!All!respondents!were!read! the!question!with!the!exact!wording!including!the!four!possible!answers.!The!confidence!level!is!95! percent.!The!margin!of!error!for!each!category!is!shown!in!the!chart!below:! ! Demographic! ! Sample!Size! ! Margin!of!Error!(+/R!%)! TOTAL! ! 2745! ! 1.87! Men! ! 1940! ! 2.22! Women! ! 805! ! 3.45! Rural! ! 1154! ! 2.88! Urban! ! 1591! ! 2.46! Below!29! ! 1017! ! 3.07! Above!30! ! 1728! ! 2.36! Kabul!City! ! 527! ! 4.27! Central!Region!(incl.!Kabul!City)! ! 812! ! 3.44! Northern!Region! ! 462! ! 4.56! Eastern!Region! ! 504! ! 4.37! Southern!Region! ! 470! ! 4.52! Western!Region! ! 497! ! 4.42! ! Table!1:!Sample!size!and!margin!of!error!by!demographic! ! ! Given!that!it!is!a!bigger!challenge!to!reach!women!by!phone!in!Afghanistan!rather!than!men,!a!quota! was! applied! for! men! and! women! in! each! region! (70%! men! and! 30%! women).! Results! were! then! weighted! first! within! each! region! to! ensure! equal! representation! of! male! and! female! respondents! ! 3! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! (50%!/!50%).!Nationwide!results!were!then!reached!by!weighting!results!by!region.!according!to!the! national!population!distribution.*!!!!! ! Detailed!Findings! ! CONTEXT! ! The! survey! was! conducted! approximately! one! month! after! President! Ashraf! Ghani! took! office.! The! survey!is!scheduled!to!take!place!again!after!the!first!100!days!of!Ghani’s!presidency.!! ! REGIONAL!RESULTS! ! Central!Region! Includes! Bamyan,! Daikundi,! Kabul,! Kapisa,! Logar,! Panjsher,! Parwan! and! Wardak! Northern!Region! Includes! Badakhshan,! Baghlan,! Balkh,! Faryab,! Jawzjan,! Kunduz,! Samangan,! SarLi!Pul!and!Takhar! Eastern!Region! Includes!Khost,!Kunar,!Laghman,!Nangarhar,!Nuristan,!Paktya!and!Paktika,! Southern!Region! Includes!Ghazni,!Helmand,!Kandahar,!Nimroz,!Uruzgan!and!Zabul! Western!Region! Includes!Badghis,!Farah,!Ghor!and!Herat! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! * !All!population!data!is!taken!from!the!Afghan!Central!Statistics!Office!2012!data! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ! ! 4! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! ! ! Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!region! Kabul! Central! North! East! South! West! 100%! 90%! 80,5%! 80%! 70%! 60%! 58,1%! 56,3%! 57,3%! 55,4%! 54,4%! 50%! 40%! 31,5%! 29,0%! 30%! 20%! 29,7%! 24,1%! 20,8%! 13,7%! 3,5%! 5,4%! 10%! 7,1%! 9,3%! 8,2%! 1,0%! 14,5%! 11,5%! 9,2%! 7,6%! 6,9%! 4,8%! 0%! Very!sa4sfied! ! Moderately!sa4sfied! Not!sa4sfied! No!opinion! 5! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!gender! Male! Female! 100%! 80%! 60%! 61,7%! 58,1%! 40%! 24,0%! 24,3%! 20%! 6,3%! 6,1%! 7,9%! 11,5%! Not!sa3sfied! No!opinion! 0%! Very!sa3sfied! Moderately! sa3sfied! ! ! ! ! Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by! se2lement!rural/urban)! Rural! Urban! 100%! 80%! 60%! 60,8%! 57,0%! 40%! 22,0%! 31,0%! 20%! 6,8%! 4,2%! 10,4%! 7,8%! Not!sa3sfied! No!opinion! 0%! Very!sa3sfied! Moderately! sa3sfied! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 6! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Presiden)al!approval!ra)ng!by!age! Under!30! 70,0%! 60,0%! 57,1%! Above!30! 62,3%! 50,0%! 40,0%! 27,9%! 30,0%! 24,3%! 20,0%! 9,3%! 8,3%! 5,6%! 5,1%! 10,0%! 0,0%! Very!sa3sfied! Moderately! sa3sfied! Not!sa3sfied! No!opinion! ! ! ! ! ! ! TOLOnews!commissioned!ATR!Consulting!to!conduct!a! series! of!presidential!approval!ratings!polls!throughout!the!first!year! of!President!Ashraf!Ghani’s!office.!ATR!is!an!Afghan!consulting! firm!established!in!Kabul!in!2012.!! ! The! detailed! methodology! is! available! on! ATR! Consulting’s! website.!! ! For! all! enquiries! about! the! methodology! and! phone! survey,! please!contact!polling@tolonews.com! ! 7!
