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Toy Markets in the World
Annuall 2010
010
Presented to ICTI October 17, 2011
Jane Zimmy, The NPD Group, Inc.
jane.zimmy@npd.com
Copyright 2008. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and
may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.
The Concept behind the Worldwide Projections
 The primary factors that drive toys and games market consumption
are:
– Population by core age groups
– GDP per inhabitant
Changes
g in both of these factors contribute to changes
g in market size.
 The business-as-usual projection of the toys and games market
sizes historically have been produced using projections of these
driving variables provided by IMF, the U.N., and The NPD Group.
 The framework assumptions
– The richer the country, the higher the Average Expenditure in Toys
per Child (AETC)
– The richer the country, the higher the proportion of consumers age
15 years old and older.
2
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Sources of information
Population
• World Population
Population, International Database
Database, Dec
Dec. 2010
U.S. Census Bureau, International
Macro economics
Macro-economics
• World Economic Outlook Database, Oct. 2010
International Monetary Fund
Existing Toy Markets
• Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy,
Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK, U.S.A. - The NPD
Group
 All calculations have been made in U.S. $. Exchange rates are as of
December 2009 & December 2010.
2010
3
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In 2009, NPD estimated the Global Toy market at just
under $80 billion USD
World Toy Market (billion $)
82
USD billion
80
78
$79,552
$78.088
76
$77.224
74
72
70
2007
2008
-1.1%
2009
+3.0%
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NPD was optimistic and forecasted the toy market to continue to
grow in 2010.
World Toy Market (billion $)
$83.900 (est.)
82 000
82.000
USD billio
on
80.000
79.552
$78.088
78.000
$77.224
76.000
74.000
72.000
70.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
Current Exchange rates for 2010
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Impact of FX on Top 10 Markets: Not all are as bleak as
those trading the EURO
Currency Effect
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
5%
-10%
US
Japan
China
UK
France
Germany
Brazil
India
Australia
Canada
If there was no growth in local currency what would the market size trend be in USD?
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European Toy Market Trends 2010 (Value) restated in USD
Trends
+4.6%
-2.9%
+3.4
-2.1%
+4.8%
-3.3%
-4.9%
-5.2%
-7.1%
+23.4%
Source: NPD Consumer and POS Panels. Trends for Big 5 represent TOTAL market, others
are NPD’s POS services and do not represent total market. Trend in local Currency Proprietary and
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2010 Results were in line with NPD’s optimistic forecastA growing market (up 4.7%)
USD billion
World Toy Market (billion $)
90.000
88.000
86.000
84.000
82.000
80.000
78.000
76.000
74.000
72.000
70.000
$79.600
$78.100
2007
$83.300
$77.200
2008
2009
2010
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2010 toy revenues by region
(billions of $)
World Toy Market by Region (billion $)
$23.3
-.7%
$23.9
+2.5%
$7.3
$7
3
+10.7%
$3.1
+5 6%
+5.6%
$23.1
$
+9.2%
$2.6
+23%
9
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Top
p Countries
10
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2010: Top 10 still represent 2/3 of total
Country Rank
2010
2009
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
9
9
8
10
10
Country
United States
Japan
China
United
Kingdom
France
Germany
Brazil
Australia
India
Canada
Country Share
Spend/kid
Kids
Population
% to 15+ yrs
2010
2009
2010($)
2010
(million)
2010
26.3%
27.0%
$
$284
62.4
19%
7.5%
7.3%
$312
16.9
16%
6 7%
6.7%
6 2%
6.2%
$23
238 3
238.3
2%
5.4%
5.4%
$365
10.8
12%
4.9%
5.3%
$307
12.0
10%
4.0%
4.3%
$247
11.0
19%
3.9%
3.5%
$59
53.3
4%
2.8%
2.4%
$486
4.0
17%
2.7%
2.6%
$6
352.8
0%
2.5%
2.4%
$317
5.4
17%
 Indicates the presence of a tracking service from NPD
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Best Estimate of 2011 (current)
World Toy Market (billion $)
90.000
88.000
USD billion
86.000
84.000
82 000
82.000
$79.600
$78.100
80.000
$83.300
$85.000
2010
2011
(October)
$77.200
78.000
76.000
74.000
72.000
70.000
2007
2008
2009
Current expectation of mixed performance in Europe, lackluster sales in U.S. balanced by
continued growth from developing countries –resulting in a 2% increase.
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Obrigado
ありがとう
Tak
Dzięki
Tack
どうもありがとう
For further information:
Jane Zimmy
Jane.zimmy@npd.com
001 516 625 2226
001.516.625.2226
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Confidential