What is really behind the adoption of new renewable
electricity generating technologies?
12th IAEE European Energy Conference
Venice, Italy
Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
IAEE student representative 2013-2014
21.09.2012
www.nhh.no
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Introduction
Research question and results
Literature review
Variables and data
Hypotheses
Models
Conclusion
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Introduction
• Renewable technologies (new renewables henceforth) which have
not reached grid-parity in terms of cost:
– Solar PV and thermal
– Onshore and offshore wind
– Tidal, wave and ocean power
• Share of electricity from new renewables is increasing globally
– 3.3% in 2010 (REN21, 2010)
– 5.0% in 2011 (REN21, 2011)
• Big difference between countries in terms of their share of
electricity from new renewables
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Research question and results
• Research question: why do countries differ in terms of their share
of electricity from new renewables?
• Result:
– energy security
– climate change mitigation
– income
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Literature review
• Most papers exploring the diffusion of renewable technologies use
policies as factors rather than establishing what leads to those
policies
• If we think of income, energy security and climate change
mitigation, only two studies are comparable
– Sadorsky (2009): income & climate change mitigation pushing for
more renewable consumption.
– Popp et al. (2011): income & climate change mitigation driving
renewable energy investment
• Contribution; complete the existing literature by integrating the
political objective of energy security
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Hypotheses
Three models to explain difference between countries in terms of
their share of electricity from new renewables:
• H1: energy security
• H2: climate change mitigation
• H3: energy security and climate change mitigation
• Income
• Hydro and nuclear
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Variables and data
• 107 middle- and high income economies
• Data for 2007, 2008 and 2009
• Robust weighted least square analysis
• NREshare
• GDP
• Hydro
• Nuclear
=
=
=
=
share of new renewables in %
GDP PPP /capita
MWh of hydro / capita
MWh of nuclear / capita
• DomCoal, ImpCoal, DomNG, ImpNG
• Or combination: Import, Domestic, GHG
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Model H1: Energy security only
• Aim: reduce fossil fuel imports
• Domestic: avoid energy security issues
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Result H1: Energy security only
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Model H2: Climate change mitigation only
• Aim: reduce fossil fuels (GHG = Coal + 0.5 · Natural gas)
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Result H2: Climate change mitigation only
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Model H3: ES + CCM
• Aim: achieve energy security and climate change mitigation
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Result H3: ES + CCM
?
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Conclusion
• Attempt to explain the difference between countries in terms of
their share of electricity from new renewables
NR: solar thermal and solar PV, onshore and offshore wind power, wave-, tidal- and ocean power
• Results
– ES + CCM together provide insights explaining this difference
– Rich countries largely relying on coal imports to generate electricity
are those achieving highest shares of electricity from new
renewables
– CCM alone is not sufficient to lead to higher shares of new
renewables
• Without these political objectives, it is likely that new renewables
would not diffuse in any electricity market
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Thank you for your attention.
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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Literature review
• Most papers exploring the diffusion of renewable technologies use
policies as factors rather than establishing what leads to those
policies
• If we think of income, energy security and climate change
mitigation, only studies from Sadorsky (2009) and Popp (2011)
are comparable
– Sadorsky: real GDP- and CO2 emissions per capita are the two
major factors pushing for more renewable consumption.
– Popp: Kyoto protocol, GDP per capita and knowledge stock are the
major drivers behind renewable energy investment
• Contribution:
– Complete the existing literature by integrating the concept of
energy security
21.09.2012 Patrick Narbel, patrick.narbel@nhh.no
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