___________________________________________________________________________
2014/AD1/027
Agenda Item: 3
Development, Trends and Prospects of Russian
Automotive Industry Under Present-Day Conditions
Purpose: Information
Submitted by: Russia
20th Automotive Dialogue
Beijing, China
22-25 April 2014
THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND TRADE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Development, Trends and Prospects of
Russian Automotive Industry under
present-day conditions
Vladimir Kaganov
Deputy Head of Department of
transport and special engineering industry
Beijing, China
April 23, 2014
There was a significant drop of the market of new vehicles in 2013.
However production in the Russian Federation remained at the level of 2012
thousand units
Total sales :
2012 → 3.09 million units
2013 → 2.91 million units
– 5,7%
-5,4%
200
-4,9%
-13,3%
150
-8,2%
100
50
16
18
2747
2598
138
119
188
179
0
Легковые
Грузовые
Trucks
Passenger cars
Buses
Total production : – 1,8%
2012
2013
2012 → 2.23 million units
2013 → 2.19 million units
-1,9%
120
-6,0%
100
thousand units
LCV
LCV
Автобусы
3,4%
80
60
-14,0%
40
20
1970
1932
82
77
0
Легковые
Passenger cars
Грузовые
Trucks
17
15
Автобусы
Buses
163
168
LCV
2012
2013
Share of cars produced in Russia (in Total Sales): 70% (in 2012: 68,7%)
21
1
Share of production in sales of passenger cars and LCV
in Russia increased from 72.6% to 75.6%
Sales: 2.78 million units (-5,5%)
units
Production: 2.10 million units (-1,5%)
2012 Sales
2013
Growth 2013/2012
2012 Production
2013
Growth 2013/2012
3
32
Various forms of state support in 2013 have
significantly helped car manufacturers
№
1.
Measures
Program of preferential car
loans
Amount of
financing
Results
8.6 billion
rubles
The loan subsidies helped auto
manufacturers to sold 276 640
cars
Subsidies for modernization of
2. automotive industry
companies
3.52 billion The modernization of 30
rubles
automotive companies
Subsidizing transportation of
vehicles manufactured in the
3.
Far East federal district in
other regions of the country
4.9 billion
rubles
Financing of applied
researches and developments,
4.
and also the most important
innovative projects
2.56 billion 40 state contracts on research
rubles
and development are financed
Transported 64 392 vehicles
produced in the Far East
Federal District
43
2
Preferential car loans program
Structure of sales by brand
¾ Banks
150
¾ Total sales
276 640 units
Brand
¾ Expenditures of the Federal budget 8.6 billion rubles
750 thousand rubles
¾ The highest price of a car
Monthly auto sales within the program
in 2013, units
July
August
September
October
November
December
Share
1
LADA
23,2%
2
Chevrolet
11,4%
3
Renault
11,2%
4
KIA
8,9%
5
Hyundai
6,8%
6
Ford
5,7%
7
Volkswagen
5,1%
8
Skoda
4,8%
9
Nissan
4,2%
10 GAZ
1,4%
11 Daewoo
1,4%
12 Geely
1,3%
13 Lifan
1,3%
14 Suzuki
1,2%
15 Chery
1,0%
16 Mazda
0,8%
17 Peugeot
0,7%
18 Others
9,8%
54
Localization of production is a key automotive industry
development factor in Russian Federation - 2014
Company
Toyota
Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Rus
PSMA-Rus
AvtoVAZ, Avto Framos, Nissan, KAMAZ, OAG,
Mercedes-Benz
Localization
10%
48%
20%
65%
Ford Motor Company, Ford Sollers Elabuga, Ford
Sollers Holding
37%
General Motors Auto, GM-AvtoVAZ
Volkswagen Gp Rus
51%
42%
65
3
2014 sales and production of vehicles forecast
Factors affecting demand
‰ In January/February 2014 oil prices fell to around $ 106.9 a barrel (-6,5% over the same period)
‰ Real disposable income will increase 3,1% in 2014
Factors affecting the prime cost
‰ Growth rates: Natural gas +8%, Electric power +7%, Thermal power +7,5%, Carriage by rail in the
regulated sector 0%.
‰ Since the beginning of 2014 the cost of the bi-currency basket went up by 12,44%. On March 15, 2014 its
value amounted to 42.99 rubles (CBR), USD exchange rate: 36.64 rubles
Depending on an economic situation
3,50
3,00
РОСТ
-0,7%
-2,8%
3,7%
-6,5%
1,5%
-1,6%
mill units
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
2,91
2,19
2013
market
РЫНОК
2,89
2,27
2014
оптимистический
optimistic
2,83
2,23
2014
базовый
basic
2,72
2,16
2014
пессимистический
pessimistic
76
production
ПРОИЗВОДСТВО
To overcome possible negative trends in the auto market in 2014, the state
will continue to implement existing measures of state support
№
Measures
Targets
Subsidies for modernization of
1.
automotive industry companies
Technology modernization of
automotive industry companies,
development of production of new
units and aggregates
Subsidizing transportation of vehicles
2. manufactured in the Far East federal
District in other regions of the country
Transportation of 64 392 vehicles
produced in the Far East Federal
District
Financing of applied researches and
3. developments, and also the major
innovative projects
Financing of 46 state contracts on
Research and Development
87
4
In 2014, the State continues to support the automotive
industry taking additional measures
№
Measures
Subsidies for compensation of part of
production costs to the Russian
1.
organizations of automotive industry
Subsidies to producers of buses and
vehicles for the housing and
2. communal services working at gas
motor fuel
Term limits for the commercial
3. exploitation of vehicles
Targets
Compensation of labor costs, energy
costs, research and development
costs and production costs of
vehicles of the ecological classes
EURO-4 and EURO-5
Realisation of vehicles working at
gas motor fuel (5000 units)
Decommissioning of commercial
vehicles older than 7 years,
transporting dangerous goods and
children
98
THE MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND TRADE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Thank you for your attention!
Q&A
5