Introduction to the Game and Its Environment With a Review of the Touchstones of Finance Purpose n Provide an overview of the course n With a framework for integrating the principles of finance into a conceptual whole. Market Efficiency NPV Option Pricing Portfolio Theory Value Additivity This is a game n The game has a long history, going back several thousand years n You will understand investing better if you think of it as a game F but, we must learn the rules F the rules must be discovered by careful digging Market Efficiency This Game is a Fair Game What is Finance? n Finance is the study of the market processes which allocate society’s savings to the most productive uses. n Finance is also concerned with how these market processes influence decision makers in business and government. n Much of this effort involves the study of the process of valuing securities in the marketplace What is Finance? n This task can be appreciated by considering the following definition of a security given by the Supreme Court: F [A security is] a contract, transaction, or scheme whereby a person invests his money in a common enterprise and is led to expect profits solely from the efforts of the promoter or third party. n Key points: F Contract, transaction, or scheme F common enterprise F investor expects profits solely from other peoples’ efforts Key Features of Securities F Common enterprise F Profits depend on efforts of third party n Separation of ownership from control is built into this definition Other Peoples’ Money—Other Peoples’ Efforts How Does the Market Value a Company? n a firm’s physical assets F and the earning power derived from them n the valuation of its human capital F organizational capital F structure of the incentives offered to key decision makers n sustainable competitive advantage What are the Value Drivers? n Market value of physical assets F Consider change in net worth when new assets and liabilities are included in the balance sheet • When would impact on net worth be neutral? … Negative? … Positive? n Option approaches continue from here F You may be able to stop here if neutral or positive n Added earning power derived from new assets F Value of new opportunities F Enhanced value of human capital • Stronger organizational capital via enhanced flexibility • New incentives offered to key decision makers F Enhanced technology F Enhanced competitive advantage F DCF methods focus on these earnings F You may be able to stop here, too Internal sources of capital n Earnings F decision: how much to retain and how much to pay out in dividends n Depreciation, and other “invisible” sources of funds flow F decision: how much to reinvest and how much to pay out in dividends n Spontaneous credit, i.e. trade credit, accruals, etc. F decision: given the cost of such borrowing, is it better to go elsewhere? External sources n Sale of real assets F a“hot” new innovation is the securitization of assets in such a way that they can be sold to new owners—while in many cases leaving a substantial amount of control over the assets in the hands of the original owner. n Non-securitized loans F which represent claims on the future income to be derived from real assets held by the firm n Sale of financial assets F which also represent claims on the future income to be derived from real assets held by the firm Financial Assets Commercial paper Bonds Equity Limited partnerships and other forms of project financing n Government-subsidized financing n Leases n n n n Equity n n n n preferred stock common stock treasury stock shelf registrations Bonds n Coupons, zeros, and strips n Mortage bonds, equipment trust bonds, and other secured bonds n Debentures and subordinated debs n Collateral trust bonds n Convertibles, bonds with warrants, and participating bonds n Income bonds n Commodity-backed bonds, reserved production agreements, and pass-throughs n The call feature Levels of activity in the financial markets n Primary market F Firms placing new securities with investors n Secondary market F Investors trading among themselves via organized exchanges or over-the-counter n Third market F Investors trading listed securities over-the-counter n Fourth market F Investors trading directly among themselves without recourse to exchanges or over-the-counter systems How governments influence investors and financial markets n regulation n taxation n enforcement of property rights Question for discussion: What is the effect of competition Among governments? What do we know about finance? n Five paradigms n Three separation principles n When the financial markets are functioning efficiently, resources are channeled to the optimal uses. The five paradigms n Net Present Value Rule n Capital Market Efficiency n Asset Pricing Theory (includes Modern Portfolio Theory, the CAPM, and Arbitrage Pricing Theory) n Value Additivity Principle (VAP) n Option Pricing Theory (OPT) Market Efficiency NPV Option Pricing Portfolio Theory Value Additivity NPV The three separation principles n Fisher’s Separation Principle F The investment decisions of business firms are separate from the owners’ consumption decisions. • Managers can make the most productive use of resources – over the long term – without worrying about owners’ preferences concerning how much wealth to consume now and how much to invest toward future consumption. • This principle is important because it says – resource allocation decisions based on rational considerations – do not depend upon whether the firm is controlled by a prodigal or a miser. What do we know about finance? The three separation principles Portfolio Theory n Tobin’s Separation Principle F Investment decisions are separate from investors’ preferences concerning the risk/reward tradeoff. • In an uncertain world, investors can choose their portfolios of risky ventures purely on the basis of a rational evaluation of probable outcomes. • Choices need not depend upon the investor’s “nerve.” Given identical expectations, a very timid person can participate in the same investments that would be chosen by a very aggressive investor. F Conclusion: resource allocation decisions are based purely upon rational considerations What do we know about finance? The three separation principles Market Efficiency n M&M Separation Principle F In a perfect capital market, a firm’s investment decisions are separate from its financing decisions. F Packaging doesn’t matter. What does matter is the substance of the firm. F If we think packaging matters, we need to look for a reason why the way a thing is packaged could change its value. Financial tricks alone can’t made a dog into a princess, and vice versa. What do we know about finance? What major questions are still unresolved? n n n n n n n n n n How are decisions really made? How can we really measure NPV? Do we really understand risk and return? Are there important lapses in market efficiency? Why do initial public offerings seem to be undervalued? How are complex options valued? Does capital structure matter? Does dividend policy matter? What is the value of liquidity? Is corporate restructuring good or bad? Finance is a dynamic and important discipline: n Our knowledge is rapidly increasing. n The market processes are rapidly evolving. F Knowledge of these market processes is crucial to practical business executives who must make investment and financing decisions. n The role of institutional investors is rapidly evolving. n When the financial markets are functioning efficiently, financial resources are channeled to the optimal uses.