A Strategic Framework for Profit Planning: Concepts, Systems, and Structure S.K. Bhattacharyya A framework for providing a long-term strategic perspective for profit planning exercises is suggested. The recommended corporate policy guidelines spell out strategic planning parameters, e.g., a) future external environment, regulatory policies, end-user operations, past performance, etc., which are likely to have a substantial bearing on the organization's planned operations and b) the desired level of performance, by way of tentative financial and nonfinancial targets. These guidelines (translated in regional or product-group terms) provide the basis for formulating draft budgets which are then analysed and settled on the basis of the original guidelines. Recommendations are made relating to the nature and content of such guidelines, the iterative process of budget formulation and settlement, and development of contingency plans. A structural back-up is provided by way of quarterly Policy Review Committee meetings to review the initial planning assumptions. An external environment scanning and information system is suggested for providing the required data and information for updating the assumptions and identifying the policy and tactical shifts necessary for achieving the original financial and non-financial targets. S.K. Bhattacharyya is IFCI Professor of Management at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. He is a consultant to and director of several public and private sector organizations. He was a visiting professor at the Harvard Business School and an associate consultant with the McKinsey & Co. Inc. His areas of interest are management planning and control, and organizational structure. Vikalpa, Vol.1, No.1, January 1976 In many organizations, a great deal of attention is now being paid to sophisticated environmental and competitive data analysis in preparing strategic 1 or long-range plans, but the annual planning or budgeting exercise remains essentially a numbers-oriented exercise setting out the targets3 of order booking, sales, production, inventory, variable costs, overheads, profit, and cash flow to be achieved by different units and regions in the broad context of the total financial plans of the organization. It is quite useful to find that the environmental and competitive data collected for long-range planning is not reflected in the budgeting procedures and systems. (See, for instance, "OpthiorroPronto Chemical Corporation Limited" case.) The implications of such a planning system are that strategic and tactical3 assumptions are not formally reflected in the short-term profit plan with the result that it is only by happenstance that the short-term plans are congruent with the long-term strategic plans. Budgeting in such a situation becomes a purely financial numbers game, divorced from environmental and competitive realities, with all the elements of "gamesmanship" inherent in such a process. Rarely 1 Strategy is the pattern of major goals and policies, and steps for achieving such goals, stated in such a way as to define what business the company is in or is to be in and the kind of company it is or is to be. (Andrews, The Concept of Corporate Strategy.) 2 Targets represent detailed, quantitative performance benchmarks—in financial as well as in physical terms— which need to be achieved in the short run for attain ment of the organizational goal over the long-run plan period. 3 Tactics represent organizational responses (spelled out in total corporate terms) for achieving the corporate goals in the short and medium run in the context of the specific strategy adopted by the organization. do managers in most situations worry about the environmental and competitive factors, which have a vital bearing on their annual plans, as they are not required to do so formally by way of enunciation of such assumptions or reflection of such data as. inputs for deriving their quantitative goals. More surprisingly, the financial targets in the budget or the annual plan are not backed up by an action programme identifying activities required to be undertaken during the plan year to achieve the results targeted, nor are the responsibilities for actions for achieving the budget (except in aggregate terms for, say, the product, function, or location) and the time schedules of their achievements specified. It is somehow assumed that if the quantitative end-results are spelled out, managers will take the required action for the achievement of the financial goals. Most line managers tend to perceive the financial budget as a "bogey" to beat rather than as an instrument of translating corporate strategy and policy reflecting the nuances of environmental and competitive trends which they can relate to their operation. Consequently, financial budgets have very low credibility with line managers. Since organizational goals and the product group or regional targets to be reflected in the annual plan for achieving the identified organizational goal are not formally spelled out and explicitly indicated to executive management4 and operating management 5 levels, prior to 4 Executive management represents the management level or tier whose members are essentially concerned with distinct product groups, regional or functional but without overall corporate responsibilities. Their major responsibility is to help and assist the corporate manage ment in developing the long-term goals, policies and strategies, formulating medium and shprt-term plans for the achievement of the goal, and monitoring the perfor mance of the operating management and taking such re medial action jointly with them as might be necessary for achievement of targets. 5 Operating management represents that management level or tier whose members are concerned with the res ponsibility of managing the operations of the unit opera tions in the organization, e.g., factories, regional markets, sales divisions, and are responsible for developing detailed short-term plans relating to the unit's operations consistent with the overall short and medium-term plans developed by the executive management and for achiev ing the desired operating results in terms of production output, cost, quality, delivery schedule, sales volume (for productline), margin, profit, etc. their formulation of their annual plans, a great deal of "guessing" about corporate management6 expectations takes place in an informal and unstructured manner prior to the preparation of the budget. Trial balloons are floated to test whether a particular performance level will be acceptable to the superior level of management, and "corridor gossip" often replaces explicit communication required for providing the backdrop necessary for purposive and meaningful annual plans. The essential attempt becomes, in many cases, to identify early in the budget game percentage increase levels which will meet the superior management level's expectations and to reflect the growth factor in a linear fashion by way of extrapolation of previous year's achievement level. The budget finally developed becomes an exercise in settlement of financial targets without questions being raised regarding basic managerial assumptions and represents a quantitative reflection of desired performance, not backed by clearly articulated strategic choices, action programme, and contingency plans. A Typical Example of Budgeting Practice * It might be useful to examine the annual budgeting process of a relatively large Indian company. First, a master plan is drawn up fixing the deadlines for the various component activities. The accounts department is charged with the responsibility of monitoring the completion of the activities on the scheduled dates. The accounts department has also the responsibility of providing to the operating and the functional departments the information relating to past performance and for providing help in processing the data for formulating the estimates 6 Corporate management represents that management level or tier whose members are concerned with the organization as a whole, even though they may have specific managerial roles in respect of product groups, regions, or functions. Their basic responsibilities are to formulate the organization's long-term goals, strategies, and policies, to allocate resources in the context of such goals and strategies, to approve the medium and short-term performance targets for achievement of the organizational goals, and to monitor the performance of the organization as a whole. Usually the Chairman, Managing Director, and other Executive Directors, concerned with product groups or functions, constitute the corporate management. Vikalpa for the plan year. The marketing (or the product groups) division starts off its exercise by developing estimates of quantities to be sold during the plan year in respect of various product groups, working out separate estimates for individual productlines after ascertaining the availability of capacity in consultation with the product units as also the availability (and likely price) of raw materials for the planned volume of sales. The purchase department provides the relative estimates regarding the raw materials and their prices. On the basis of the various estimates, marketing divisions of the product groups compute the likely contribution, separately for each product group and productline. Once the estimates have been firmed up, targets are set up for production, inventory, and sales, and their required allocations are made between the various regional marketing divisions and the production units. Keeping in mind the estimated volume of sales and production, overhead costs are worked out by the marketing and production divisions and the supporting functional departments like purchase, transportation, personnel, finance and accounts, and administration. They establish their overhead levels keeping in view the variation between the estimated level of production and sales compared with previous years. Of course, the direct overheads for marketing, distribution, and promotion are worked out separately for the product groups and the productlines. On the basis of the various sales, production, variable cost, and overhead estimates, the final budget is developed showing the financial connotations of the estimates developed. A great deal of consultation and discussion takes place to ensure that the estimates and the physical quantities, production, sales, purchase, and financial results are realistic and more importantly, they are in alignment in so far as the attainment of such results requires collaborative efforts between the various operating departments as also the functional departments. The margins in respect of product groups and productlines, profit, cash flow, requirements Vol.1, No.1, January 1976 of working capital, personnel, capital expenditure, etc., are worked out in great detail—usually for each of the constituent months of the plan year—in line with the aggregative estimates previously developed. They are then placed before the board for approval. Once the board approves the detailed estimates after consultations and discussions with the departmental heads, they are communicated to the operating departments and the functional departments to serve as benchmarks for actual performance measurement and" evaluation of results at periodic intervals, usually every month. While it can be reasonably assumed that prior to the development of the estimates, the managers take into account the operational past performance, the likely environmental conditions, and competitive trends, the question is whether it is necessary to reflect these assumptions in explicitly articulated guidelines spelling out some of the planning parameters relating to environment, competition, and end-use trends. The basic questions that need to be discussed are whether corporate management expectations based on analysis of past performance and environmental and competitive trends as well as operational trends in regard to endusers should be specifically articulated prior to the formulation of annual plans and whether it would be useful to spell out specifically new strategies and tactics (as also shifts from existing ones). Need for Linkage between Long-Run Corporate Objectives and Short-Run Plans and Programmes The need for the linkage is highlighted by all leading thinkers in the planning and control field. Anthony (p. 31) has highlighted the close linkage between management controls (annual or short-term planning) to strategic planning : Since we shall emphasize differences, the reader may get the impression that we view strategic planning and management control as discrete entities. This is not so. The planning and control process is in fact a continuum, and we imply a discrete dichotomy only because we believe that this is the best way to explain the distinction. A corresponding approach is necessary to describe the differences between research and development, or between management and labor, or between slavery and freedom. Management control is a process carried on within guidelines established by strategic planning. Objectives, facilities, organization, and financial factors are more or less accepted as given. Decision about next year's budget, for example, are constrained within prescribed policies and guidelines. The management control process is intended to make possible the achievement of planned objectives as effectively and efficiently as possible within these givens. (Italics added) It is interesting to note that while Anthony recognizes that the budget or the annual profit plan has to be formulated within the prescribed policies and guidelines which are essentially strategic in nature, he does not go on to specify the linkage process whereby such strategic policies and guidelines are reflected in the management control or the budgeting process. Similarly Welsch (p. 51) identifies that o n e o f t h e i m p o r t a n t s t e p s i n e f f e c t i v e profit planning and control is the conscious environmental linkage process : The characteristics of the firm and the environment, in which it operates—including the external and internal variables—must be identified and evaluated so that relevant decisions may be made concerning the characteristics of a profit planning and control program that would be effective and practical. However, in developing the mechanics of profit planning and control by way of budgeting, Welsch tends to emphasize specification of the total goals and objectives prior to the budgeting process without emphasizing the need for explicit supportive process, i.e., scanning of external environment, analysis of competitive trends, examination of the end-user's operation, etc., and the articulation of the strategic, tactical, and policy assumptions including new strategies, tactics, and policies identified and shifts from currently existing assumptions. Surprisingly, while Anthony and Welsch recognize the need for linkage between the strategic planning and management planning and control, i.e., annual plans, other authors like Bayer (p. 31) focus primarily on quantitative projection for effective budgeting, as is evident from the following prescription relating to the annual profit planning process: Making detailed forecasts of sales by productline and of mix within productlines. Setting flexible budgets for all overhead expenses in accordance with the responsibility structure of the organization. Classifying all planned costs into their variable, standby, and programmed elements. Determining planned product costs, using engineered or estimated specifications for material and direct labor and applying budgeted expense* to obtain the variable manufacturing overhead. Determining incremental product costs, by adding to planned product costs and budgeted variable overhead from areas other than manufacturing. Assigning specific costs and allocating general standby and programmed costs to productlines. Making detailed forecasts of cash flow and tha balance sheet and of assets employed by productline. Clearly, the concern is with the mechanics of budgeting without building into the planning process the analysis of the basic parameters like environmental and competitive trends which determine the opportunities and threats for the organization, highlighting resource constraints and availability and leading to the strategic and policy 7 choices within which the budget has to be formulated. At this point of time, we might ask ourselves what problems would arise if the desired linkage between the long-run objectives8 and goals9 and short-term profit planning assumptions were not established in an explicit manner. The primary problem is that in the absence of a formally established framework of objectives, unit managers required to develop annual plans or budget might indulge in guessing games for budgeting what they consider to be the corporate "bogey." Furthermore, there is the distinct possibility that even if the total corporate goals and objectives were handed down 7 Policies are short and medium-run product and functional guidelines to be handed down to the executives and employees of the organization in performing their operational tasks so as to ensure that their actions, based on such policies or guidelines, will be in line with the strategy and lead to the achievement of the corporate goals and objectives. 8 The term "objectives" is used synonymously with goals, though some theorists tend to define objectives in terms of growth goals rather than absolute quantitative goals. 9 Goals represent long-term quantitative organizational performance targets, spelled out in terms of sales volume, market share, profit, return on investment, earnings per share, etc. Vikalpa in merely quantitative terms prior to the formulation of the annual plan, they will not serve the desired purpose for the following reasons: a. Unit managers concerned with the performance of a product group or a particular region will find it difficult to relate to the corporate goals and objectives in managerial terms, i.e., what assumptions must be made about the means in achieving the desired ends. b. There will be some questions in the mind of subordinate level managers as to the fairness and validity of the corporate goals and objectives in the absence of a rational analysis of the contributory factors—like en vironment competition, end-users operations— leading to mental non-acceptance of the corporate goals. c. Unless the corporate goals and objec tives are translated in terms of specific new strategies, tactics, and policies (or in terms of shifts from existing ones), managers will be unable to formulate unit-level targets. The "Chicken and Egg-Problem in Corporate Goal Setting We can easily agree on the need for the specific formulation of corporate as well as unit-level (product group or region) desired targets, prior to the formulation of annual plans, based on an analysis of the contributory factors as well as the supportive strategy, tactics, and policies. Many practitioners of planning will, however, contend that it is not possible for corporate management to formulate such tentative targets or to specify strategies, tactics, and policies in the absence of a prior effort on the part of the executive and operating managements to brief the corporate management as to the potential levels of achievement and the feasibility of strategies, tactics, and policies to be adopted. This leads us neatly to a "chicken and egg" problem highlighting the dilemma as to which of the two processes should precede the other. Since by definition, it is not possible to specify the precedenceof one before the other, an iterative process is recommended. In this process, the three levels of management simul- .li No.1. January 1976 taneously provide inputs regarding the planning estimates and derive understanding relating to the desired levels of performance as well as the strategic assumptions to be developed, subject to the following assumptions: a. The responsibility of providing guide lines at a specific point of time in the planning sequence is identified as a managerial task relative to the management level. b. A budgeting or estimating process exists, which allows constant opportunities to the operating and executive managements to match the initial aggregate estimates with the corresponding tentative targets, identified in the policy guidelines and to formulate new alter natives in the light of the strategies, tactics.and policies enunciated (when there is an initial mis-match between desired performance level and estimate of potential). The process of development of corporate and product group policy guidelines by way of an iterative process, which enables the executive and operating managements to link their targeted levels of achievement with the tentative targets built down from the long-term goals and strategies of the organization, is outlined in Appendix I. (For details, see Bhattacharyya, 1972, pp. M 149-M 161.) The further process of development of estimates and the settlement between the superior and the operating management for ensuring that unit-level, product group, or regional-level targets and desired level of corporate performance are in alignment in the annual plan is outlined in Appendix II. In using policy guidelines as a backdrop for annual planning, the interaction of management at all levels and the intensity of their participation are the most important determinants of the effectiveness of the process and the quality of the output. Particularly important in this context is the requirement that while staff departments have responsibilities of developing information and policy inputs for the formulation of policy guidelines, the final determination of the desired level of achievement must essentially be left to those who are concerned in their managerial roles at the executive or corporate management levels. Unless the policy guidelines bear the clear imprint of the personalities of the Corporate and executive managements, they will not have the required degree of acceptance at the operating level, thereby ensuring their low credibility as inputs to the planning process. - Similarly the clarity of managerial focus with which policy guidelines are framed will determine to a substantial extent the quality of the analysis and review of draft budgets between the operating management and the executive management. In the absence of clear strategic and policy focus of the organization, the genera tion of fresh alternatives, where aggregate targets do not match the identified levels of performance in the policy guidelines, will be a difficult and frustrating process. The effectiveness of the planning process will also be substantially determined by the design sophistication reflected in the budget formats (i.e., whether they are in line with the broad rationale and approach reflected in the formulation of policy guidelines), timing, sequencing, and administration of the budget formulation and settlement activities. Operationalizing the Annual Plan Formulation Based on Strategic Policy Guidelines Perhaps the first step in introducing the suggested planning process based on policy guidelines will be to get managers in the organization to accept the concept of linkage between strategic and financial planning. It is not easy to make the shift from a purely financial projection based budgeting system to another system which seeks to link the corporation's long-run strategy, derived from systematic scanning of external and internal environment as well as competition with a view to developing formal quantitative targets both in financial and operational terms for the plan year. It will perhaps be necessary to have internal meetings whereby the benefits of these linkages can be demonstrated and validated prior to the introduction of the new system. It will also be necessary for managers in the organization to accept the notion that a budget which is "settled"between superior and subordinate management levels, based on common data and assumptions relating to environment, .competition, and past performance data, is qualitatively superior and more meaningful and acceptable in managerial terms. The acceptance of the notion of the strategic linkage with annual plans will be more readily accomplished if it is evident to the managers that the corporate and executive managements are truly involved in and committed to providing a strategic perspective for meaningful planning and that the document providing such perspective, i.e., corporate or product group or regional policy guidelines, bears their unmistakable imprint. The extent of the "homework" done by the corporate and executive managements in preparing the policy guidelines will substantially determine the credibility of these documents in the eyes of those managers who will be required to prepare annual plans based on these documents. One other important requirement in this context, as already mentioned, is that the budget formats must reflect the same framework (though with much greater quantitative emphasis) ensuring that managers at all levels relate their plans to environmental, competitive, and past performance data relative to their own operations. Assuming that a large company with multiproduct and multi-location operations is to implement the suggestions regarding the recommended annual planning system based on policy guidelines, by mid - August the concerned planning manager in the corporate management charged with the responsibility of monitoring the development of policy guidelines will be required to advise the members of the executive management (i.e., managers heading product group activities and those in charge of regional operations) as also operating managers concerned with marketing and production activities about the environmental, competitive, and past operational performance data which will have to be collected by them for formulating the plan beginning January next. To develop understanding of some of the information to be provided in this context, it Vikalpa may be useful to look at the broad outline of the papers to be developed relating to the various aspects, e.g., environmental, competitive, operational, and past performance trends. The paper on environment will possibly include, among other things, the following: 1. A broad review of the likely political scene particularly regarding the law and order situation and the projected industrial relations. 2. A review of the economic trends, analysing the situation in relation to agricultural as well as industrial production, behaviour of general price index, availability of power and energy, and availability of raw materials, other supplies, and components to be supplied by ancillaries. Other areas which will need review in this context are the balance of payment posi tion, foreign exchange availability, money supply, price behaviour, movements in government expenditure, and availability of foreign aid. This list will obviously have to be tailored in the context of the unique operating and environ mental variables in the organization's operations. The important consideration is to derive under standing about the likely environment during the plan year by analysing past trends supported by reasoned estimates and judgements. 3. A review of the various policies of the government on industrial development and allied matters which are likely to have sub stantial bearing on the organization's future operations, e.g., issue of licences, availability of funds for new projects, issue of sanctions relatr ing to import of machineries and raw material, and import and export policies. Attempts should also be made to relate the long-term plans of governmental resource allocations as well as the annual budget expenditure levels to the organization's operation by way of matching the projected resource allocation and activity expenditure with the corporation's products and services. 4. Summing up and the forecast of likely environment : This is the most critical part of the paper which wilt outline the broad trends that are likely to prevail during the annual plan period and forecast, in broad terms, implications of the environmental factors on the organiza- Vol.1, No.1, January 1976 tion's future operations highlighting areas of opportunity and underscoring possible problems and threats. The most important determinant of the effectiveness of the paper on environment will be the ability to relate macro trends with micro level forecasts for the annual plan period. It should be noted that in developing the final paper on environment, comments from selected senior managers in the operating management level on political and economic trends and government regulatory policies relating to their own operations need to be reflected i.n the final paper. It will also be necessary to analyse the internal environmental situation at periodic intervals of say three to five years. Such analysis will be based on depth studies of the various functions like personnel, marketing, finance, production, and R & D and provide insights into the organization's strengths and weaknesses so that a "fit" can be attempted with the opportunities and threats identified by external environment analysis. The paper on past performance should discuss in depth the results of the product groups' and regions' activities over a period of say three years, separately identifying for individual productlines within the product groups, parameters of performance which can be in the following terms, e.g., for a large engineering technology based organization: Orders booked Sales : volume : market share Order backlog Customer receivables (including progress bills) Contribution (or margin) before group overhead Finished goods and raw material inventory in number of days sale Working capital Manpower Supervisory manpower The items outlined above are only illustrative and have to be suitably adjusted for different kinds of operations. However, in all cases the attempt should be to 1. Consolidate the productline data into group performance statements and 2. Highlight past trends in operation. In analysing the productline performance (as well as product group and regional performance), the attempt will be to examine the broad trends in relation to : Order booking 'Compounded sales growth Contribution as percentage of sales Utilization of working capital as percentage of sales Acquisition of new fixed assets Movements in personnel strength Co-relation of overheads with level of activity turnover of average funds employed Analysis of profit before tax and its relation to sales and other parameters Contribution and percentage of average funds employed. The analysis of past performance should highlight, separately for each group, the various marketing and production trends which need to be considered in developing the annual plan period estimates. It should also properly include forecasts relating to material and power availability, production variables, marketing, customer behaviour, pricing and distribution factors, likely capacity utilization, staff strength, problems of co-ordination between the production and marketing functions, if any, etc. , This ; paper should also properly include detailed analysis of the operations of major end-user groups as well as large-volume customers so that any likely changes in their demand (as well as in their expectations regarding product specification or service dimensions, pricing, distribution, etc.) can be reflected in the development of product and service policies. The paper on competition should be based on a study conducted in two parts. The first part will be essentially a quantitative analysis by way of inter-firm comparison with companies whose operations are comparable in production, marketplaces served, technology employed, volume of sales, etc. This list of companies can also include a few companies which may riot be directly competing with the organization concerned in the marketplace or employing the same technology but whose managerial performance is so outstanding as to serve as useful benchmarks for development of managerial insights ih; the-'areas, for example, of turnover of funds, capital structure, innovative policies relat- ing to product development and promotion, and sources and utilization of funds. This part of the study will essentially be a micro-level analysis of the competition faced by the organization's productlines in terms of quantitative and financial data. The financial information will be available in the annual reports of the competitors and will have to be supplemented by quantitative marketing intelligence. The second part of the study will focus primarily on the operating variables like product policies, product innovation, marketing, pricing and distribution strategies, R & D, new equipment acquisition, and technological developments. They will substantially be derived from marketplace information and commercial intelligence and spelled out in qualitative terms. The working paper on competition will raise various issues relating to products, R & D policy, diversification policy, organizational structure, marketing policies including cost, production, distribution, promotion, etc.,.which will have substantial value for the annual planning process. The matching of such data with the organizational strength and weaknesses (developed in the paper on environment) will provide incisive insights which will trigger remedial action on the part of the management to be competitive in the marketplace and lead to development of policies which capitalize on the organization's competitive strength. Sequence in Developing Policy Guidelines Appendices III and IV highlight the broad sequential steps in the development of the corporate policy guidelines and product group policy guidelines for an organization whose plan period commences from January. It should be noted from Appendix IV that in addition to the competitive, end-user's, environmental, and past performance data, the forecasts relating to capacity and delivery commitments (which will approximately include availability of critical raw materials, power, and personnel) are provided by production managers heading the plants producing the various products marketed by the product groups. Vikalpa The interesting features which need to be highlighted from Appendices III and IV are as follows: The process of development of corporate policy guidelines and product group guidelines is essentially iterative. The process could be compared to two rivers flowing in a parallel direction with canals interlinking them at various points. The continuing linkages in inputs from operating management to the executive management to the corporate management by informal processes of consultations, discussions, and meetings also ensure that there is informal feedback relating to the broad corporate policies and targets formulated. This is done, even prior to their formalization, by way of specific corporate and product group response to the mutual inter-dependencies of the three levels of management, in formulating strategies and policies on the one hand and in simultaneously assessing future potential and settling targets on the other hand. The other design feature which needs to be highlighted is that while all the three levels of management participate in the formulation of the corporate policy guidelines and product group policy guidelines, the responsibility for handing down the explicit guidelines rests with the corporate management and the executive management respectively and specific deadlines are set for this purpose. It is also noteworthy that the process design enables group policy guidelines to be issued within a period of 10 days of the issue of corporate policy guidelines by ensuring that the work relating to both these plan documents is carried on simultaneously with continuing linkages. Content of Policy Guidelines At this point, it may be useful to illustrate the content of policy guidelines: 1. A comprehensive review of the performance of the organization (separately for each production group and region) highlighting the trends in the operations in the immediate past. This part of the policy guidelines should identify operational trends which are reflected in the past performance review. Vol.1, No.1, January 1976 2. The broad environmental trends likely to affect the organization's operations in the plan year in terms of regulatory policies, social, economic, and political environmental factors which are directly related to the operations of the organization and technological changes which are likely to come up—specifically out lining the organization's assumptions in regard to such regulatory, technological, and environ* mental factors for the plan year's operations. 3. The competitive threats, identifying the assumptions relating to competitors' likely strategies and tactics during the plan year and the organization's proposed responses to such likely competitive behaviour. 4. The assumptions relating to the endusers' operations, particularly the likely level of their demand spelled out in terms of volume of sales, quality, price expectations, etc., formulated from in-depth analysis of their past operational trends and future prospects. 5. The desired level of broad quantitative goals (e.g., long-run profitability, earnings per share, and return on investment) and desired short-term target in terms of order bookings, sales volume, market share, margin, profit before tax, cash flow, etc., for the organization as a whole as well as for the product group and regional operations. 6. New strategies and tactics to be adopted by the organization for achievement of the goals outlined in item 5 above as well as shifts from current strategies, tactics, and policies which are to be reflected in the draft plan. One of the primary components of this part of the policy guidelines will be corporate manage ment's decisions regarding capital expenditure, new projects, introduction of new products, setting up of marketing operations in new areas, employment of new technologies, adoption of new marketing, distribution, production, and financial policies (as well as changes in existing policies) and products which are to be dropped or de-emphasized during the plan year operations. 7. Parameters of desired non-financial performance to be achieved to attain the quan titative goals, e.g., inventory and receivable levels, working capital, usage level of raw materials, chemicals, and supplies (including yield, recoveries, wastage, and rejection factors, where they are critical), labour and machine productivity, and other critical variables in the organization's operations. 8. The resources likely to be available for attaining the desired organizational targets----consistent with the strategies, tactics, and policies identified—particularly by way of availability of personnel, funds, and capital expenditure (including physical facilities). Appendix V outlines the broad content of corporate policy guidelines and Appendix VI of product group policy guidelines with reference to the operations of a major multiproduct, multi-location organization. Process of Development of Annual Plans The broad process of the development of annual plans, within the framework of product group policy guidelines, will broadly follow the sequence outlined in Appendix II. Since the sequence and procedures described correspond with practices adopted in most well-organized companies, the details of the annual plan formulation process are not repeated here. However, it will be useful to identify some of the distinctive features of an annual planning process which is based on development of corporate, product group, and regional policy guidelines, backed up by target setting from positions of mutuality and collaboration: 1. The draft budgets prepared at the unit management level becomes congruent with the long run corporate objectives and purposes as operating and unit managers have available with them the product group or regional policy guidelines to serve as a backdrop for their planning. This is further strengthened by the design of the budgeting formats which reflect in quantitative terms the basis followed for formulation of corporate and product group policyguidelines, i.e., environmental, end-user's, competitive, and past performance analysis in the context of corporate strategies and policies identified. 10 2. "Gap analysis" becomes possible both at the executive management and at the cor porate management level as the consolidated operating management performance targets can now be matched with the previously determined targets for the product group (or region) set out in the product group policy guidelines. Similarly, the consolidated draft budgets for the product groups or the regions can be "matched" with the pre-determined corporate performance levels highlighted in the corporate policy guide lines for identifying the gaps in projected performance. 3. The planning process outlined in Appendix II provides for mutual review and discussion of the budgets between operating management and executive management and bet ween executive management and corporate management on the basis of commonly shared assumptions and data for identifying untapped potential and policy shifts required to remedy the gaps identified. 4. The iterative process of planning based on mutual discussions and consultations prior to settlement of targets is maintained during the annual planning process ensuring the maintenance of the mutuality of under standing and collaborative and co-ordinated action for formulation of targets at all levels leading to achievement of desired organizational targets fixed in the context of long-run goals. 5. The process is participative and leads to "fair" determination of targets while retaining the responsibility of the superior management level for providing guidance and direction and specific articulation of assumptions. Systemic and Structural Responses to Likely Changes in the Forecast Environment It is fairly certain that however comprehensive the process of formulation of policy guidelines and annual plan targets is, many of the assumptions relating to environment and competition will change during the plan period. Given the current dynamic and fluid conditions operating in the external environment, the assumptions will have to be reviewed from time Vikalpa to time and .also new strategies, tactics, and policies will have to be evaluated to maintain the desired level of performance. In the context of these requirements, two systemic responses are necessary: 1. The formulation of contingency plans which will ensure that if certain assumptions originally made undergo change, the operating and executive management levels can determine for themselves, according to the pre-determined contingency plan, action to be taken. In this connection, the mode and mechanism of contin gency planning adopted by a very large multiproduct, multi-location unit in the United States is outlined in Appendix VII. What is particularly noteworthy in this context is that the contin gency plan developed not only provides the "thermostat" mechanism for activating the contingency plan but also outlines specific guidelines relating to the areas which need to be reviewed for action in the event of such contingency plan coming into operation. 2. The plan in quantitative terms needs to be backed up by action plans which specify activities to be undertaken, identify the manager responsible for taking such action, and the time period within which the action is to be complet ed. The basic point to be noted in this context is that the quantitative plans, unless they are backed up by action plans with respect to specific activities required to be undertaken to achieve the desired goals, do not register in the minds of most operating level managers co-ordinating the scheme for achieving the desired results. Appendix VIII outlines the kind of action plans formulated by the same com pany whose contingency plans were outlined in Appendix VII. In addition to the above process response, the recommended system requires specific structural response whereby those who were concerned with the formulation of the initial policy guidelines are continually involved in review of the original assumptions at quarterly intervals. For this purpose, it will be necessary to constitute a Policy Review Committee consisting of the members of the corporate management as well as those members of the executive Vot.1, No.1, January 1976 management who were specifically charged with the responsibility of developing product group or regional policy guidelines at the time •of initial planning. At quarterly intervals, the members of the Policy Review Committee need to re-examine the original assumptions and forecasts reflected in the working papers relating to internal and external environment as well as competitive trends to identify the policy shifts required to attain the targets and goals reflected in the annual plan. The focus of the Policy Review Committee meeting will essentially be on strategic and policy matters based on the environmental and competitive data on the operations till the end of that quarter. The end-product of the Policy Review Committee meeting will be to identify shifts from strategies and policies identified in the policy guidelines, if such shifts are required and modifications of the action programmes originally formulated, and which are necessary in the light of the Policy Review Committee's deliberations. However, it is appropriate to note that: 1. The Policy Review Committee is not concerned with the review of operational results which must be left to a different body, e.g., budget committee. It must essentially relate its deliberations to an examination of the environ mental and competitive conditions operating with a view to identifying strategic and policy shifts. 2. The Policy Review Committee has no authority to revise the targets originally reflected in the annual plan. If the environmental and competitive conditions change, the revision of targets is not an option open to the Policy Review Committee. The committee must strive to identify what changes in strategies, tactics, and policies will achieve the original targets. It must not pursue the easy path of revision which will lead to substantial dilution in the credibility of the planning process. Need for Tailoring Information Systems to Planning Data Needs To make the deliberations of the Policy Review Committee purposive and worthwhile, 11 a quarterly environmental and competition scanning system must be designed which will lead to collection of all data required by the committee for its purposes. This scanning system must be semistructured in the sense that while the format will identify the relevant issues, it will leave the formulation of the qualitative assessment to the concerned members of the committee in their individual capacities. Appendix IX outlines a suggested format for such an open-ended environmental information system. The concomitant requirement is to ensure that the ongoing management reporting system reflects some of the above environmental data in the reports to the executive management and corporate management. Critical Variables for the System's Effectiveness It might be worthwhile to examine the critical variables for success and effectiveness of the proposed system. It needs to be emphasized that what is desirable and necessary is not excessive sophistication but understanding of the budget linkages between the future environment and competition with past performance in formulating the annual plan. The ability to build in the linkages in a tailored fashion, keeping in view its operating characteristics in terms of marketplace situation, product characteristics, technology, financial structure, etc., is easily the most critical determinant of the success of the system. Again it is not a requirement that an esoteric model be developed for environmental and competitive trend analysis. However, it is necessary that the quality of the analysis should reflect a sustained attempt to probe and explore in a formal and structured manner all facets of environment and competition which have a bearing on the organization's operations. (For a detailed enumeration of the benefits resulting from formalization of planning, see Camillus, pp. 33-40.) A system's requirement for success is that one of the members of the corporate management, preferably the Director (Planning), must be charged with the monitoring of the system 12 to ensure that the norms are properly followed, quality of the analysis is at the desired level, and most importantly, the discussions and consultations stem from a framework of mutuality and collaboration rather than of "gamesmanship." (For a detailed analysis of problems of conflict in management planning and control, see Bhattacharyya, Winter 1973-74). This will substantially depend on the involvement and commitment of the corporate and executive management to the planning process and their support, both at visible and audible levels, to the planning process. Conclusion It is contended that the suggested system, which has already been applied in several large multi-product, multi-location organizations10 in India (including large banking, high technology engineering, consumer goods, process engineering companies, etc.), is considerably superior to the traditional budgeting process on the following counts: 1. It explicitly responds in a formal and structured fashion to the environmental and competitive linkage requirements critical to successful annual planning. 2. It provides for a balance between quantitative determination of targets and qualitative and managerial determination of assumptions, strategies, and policies which are implicit in such targets. 3. It forces management to be explicit about their assumptions and requires them to develop estimates, targets, and policies on an open and mutually shared basis with lower levels of management, thereby ensuring their acceptance at the operating level. 4. It provides for a mechanism of continued assessment of environment and competition (given their fluid and dynamic nature in the current context) and development of remedial response in case the original assumptions 10 The suggested system should be of considerable benefit also to medium-sized multi-product or multi-location organizations. However, its usefulness in relatively small single-product, single-location organizations will be somewhat limited. Vikalpa change or are modified due to reasons beyond the organization's control. 5. It provides far a contingency plan and action programme which ensures that alternative plans are identified in terms of levels of activity and action programmes required to be under taken for achievement pf the desired organizational objectives and goals are developed as back-up programmes for achievement of plans. 6. Most importantly, it generates organizational skills for systematic and structured scanning and analysis of environment,'explicit formulation of objectives and development of strategies and policies for attaining objectives, leading to quick spin-offs in formal long-range planning skills within a short period. References Andrews, Kenneth R. The Concept of Corporate Strategy, Homewood, III. : Dow-Jones-/rwin, 1971. Anthony, Robert N. Planning and Control Systems' A Framework for Analysis. Boston: Harvard University, 1965. Bayer, Robert N. Profitability Accounting for Planning and Control. New York: The Ronald Press Co., 1963. Bhattacharyya, S. K. "Translating Organizational Objectives into Programme Tasks and Operating Tasks." Economic and Political Weekly, 7(48), Nov. 25, 1972. Bhattacharyya,* S. K. " Management Control Systems and Conflicts," International Studies in Management and Organization; Planning and Control, Winter 1973-74. Camillus, J. C. "Evaluating the Benefits of Formal Planning System," Long Range Planning, 8(3), June 1975. "Opthiorro-Pronto Chemical Corporation Limited."Ahmedabad: Indian Institute of Management, 1972. Welsch, Glenn A. Budgeting, Profit Planning and Control. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc., 1971. Appendix I Developing Corporate & Product Group Policy Guidelines Finalize Organizational & Group Objectives Allocate Resources • Funds • Cap expenditure CORPORATE MANAGEMENT Formulate Tentative Organizational Objectives • Profit • Return on investment • Sales growth • Other objectives Identify • New strategies & policies • Strategy &. policy shifts Discuss and Review Identify Tentative Group Targets • Sales • Contribution • Profit before tax EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT Product Groups • Scan operational environment • Analyse competition • Analyse past performance r.- OPERATING MANAGEMENT » o ' Finalize • Group & productline targets Identify. • Group policy changes 1 * ; Analyse • Unit level performance • Unit level competition Acknowledgement : Appendices 1 IV the author jointly with J. C. Camillus >ermission for use of the charts is Vo/J, No.1, January 1976 have been adopted from a report prepared by and Ravi J. Matthai. The o- authors' gratefully acknowledged. X Draft Annual Plan i (See Appen dix in Collect data in prescribed plan format Prepare Corporate Policy Guidelines (See Appendix III) Appendix 11 Developing Annual Plans in the Framework of Corporate & Product Group Policy Guidelines Consolidate- &. Analyse Product Group Annual Plans • Determine "gaps" from organizational .objectives (Corporate Policy Guidelines) • Identify targets needing revision • Specify policy shifts CORPORATE MANAGEMENT Consolidate & Analyse Draft & Review EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT Annual Plans e Determine "gaps" from group objectives (Product Group* Policy Guidelines) e Identify targets needing revision shortfalls Approve and Communicate Group Annyat Plans Implement A. Control • Prepare periodic reports comparing actual performance with plans • Conduct reviews and formulate corrective • R e p l a n n i g (if necessary) Discuss & Review OPERATING MANAGEMENT Prepare Draft Annual Plans e Tentative unit targets product/ productive- wist. sales, costs, margins e Overhead plan e Profit targets • Resource requirements Appendix III Corporate Policy Guidelines: The Process of Development Corporate Management Discusses Papers with Working Group Consisting of: Paper on Competitors' Performance! Product Group Managers GM (P) Manager (Delhi Office) (On Aug. 10) Regional Managers Consultation with Manager (Delhi Office) ft Regional (By Oct. 3) Circular Sent by General Manager (Planning) Corporate Discusses Draft CPG with GM(P) Corporate Policy Guidelfnes Issued by Corporate Management (By Oct. 10) 14 Vikalpa Appendix IV Product Croup Policy Guidelines : The Process of development Production Managers Circular Drafted by General Manager (Planning) Sent to Product Group Managers (On Aug. 10) Purchase Managers (Raw material, spares & bought out parts) Product Group Accountants Business Economist | Capacity Delivery Commitm Past Performance C Advised by G MJPJJ Final Corporate Guidelines Sent 4o Product Group Managers by Corporate Management (By Oct, 101 ents Product Group Managers Meet Purchase Managers Production Managers Productive Managers to Discuss Product Group Guidelines, Tentative Productive Targets Produc Group 0 t crs Manag (By Sc pt. 15) Environmental Information Sales Managers • in Reaions Information (Around Oct. 13) Product Line Co Managers Product Group Managers Issue Final Product Group Policy, Guidelines Oct. 20) repetition vironment En (By Sept 5) Appendix V Broad Content of Corporate Policy Guidelines of a Large Multi-Product, Multi-Location Company The initial part of the document highlights a brief and succinct summary of the significant trends relating to environment, competition, and past performance, The likely trends in these areas during the plan year are spelled out. For example, impact of recession, availability of credit, likely levels of demand, availability of funds for capital expenditure, likely competitive moves, impact of government policy, etc., on operations are analysed and the likely impact is identified. Thereafter, the broad targets of the organization in order booking, sales, contribution, and profit before tax are spelled out in quantitative terms, both for the organization as a whole and for the individual product groups, in the enclosed formats. The corporate policy guidelines then spell out the new strategies and policies (and changes in existing strategies and policies) in the following areas to attain the desired targets: a. Marketing policies including pricing, distribution, and promotion policies. VoU,.No.1, January 1976 b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j. Production policies including product development, new technologies, and inventory policies. Capital expenditure programme. Personnel policies including recruitment of personnel with new skills and technological knowledge. Financial policies including management of working capital, capital structure, dividend policies, raising of resources, etc. Export policies. Productivity, Credit policy. Research and Development. Relationship with central and state governments, public sector undertakings, etc. This is not an exhaustive list. Each organization will have to tailor its corporate policy guidelines to respond to trends in environment as well as competition and anticipation of the opportunities and remedial action in respect of threats. 15 Appendix V Contd. 1972-73 (Actual) 1973-74 (Actual) Corporate Guidelines—1975-76 Organizational Targets 1974-75 (Estimate) 1975-76 (Target) INDICATORS 1. Order booking 2. Sales 3. Contribution 4. Profit before tax (PBT) 5. Profit after tax (PAT) 6. Average capital employed A. Order booking -Compounded growth* Growth over previous year B. Sales -Compounded growth* Growth over previous year C. PBT -Compounded growth* Growth over previous year %of capital employed -Compounded growth* Growth over previous year % of capital employed -Value (Rs.) -As % of sales D. PAT E. Working capital * Over 3 years Product Group—X Targets 1972-73 (Actual) 1 973-74 (Actual) 1974-75 (Estimate) INDICATORS Contribution Rs. in lakhs* 1975-76 (Target) Value % of sales % of funds employed (average) Order booking (% growth) Sales (% growth) Average funds employed (turnover) Fixed assets at year end Average working capital Total value (% of sales) Customer outst. (days sales) Fin. goods (days of sales at cost) WIP & RM There will be targets for every product group which when consolidated will be equal to the organizational goal. 16 Vikalpa Appendix VI Broad Content of Product Group Policy Guidelines of a Large Multi-Product, Multi-Location Company In the initial part of this document, the environment, competition, and past performance relative to the other product groups are highlighted. Likely trends and future threats are sharply focussed. Thereafter, the nature of the competitive activity during the plan period is forecast and responses which the group has to make are specified. The productlinewise expectations are then spelled out in the following format. Finally the product group policy guidelines spell out the new strategies and policies to be adopted as well as shifts in the existing policies. These possibly relate to the following : Past performance in respect of productlines within the product group are succinctly analysed to highlight trends in the operations of the productlines in the product group. The product group policy guidelines briefly mention at this stage the corporate management's expectations relating to the product group performance as outlined in the corporate policy guidelines. Productline A DIVISIONS Expected Proposed (This Yr.) a. Policies relating to marketing, distribution, and pricing. b. Policies relating organizations. c. Policies relating to utilization of capacities and pricing tactics. d. Broad desired "product-mix." e. Pricing policies in response to likely competitive behaviour. collaboration with other f. Research and development activities. g. Export policies in regard to areas of export, goods and services to be exported, pricing policy, etc. Productline B Expected to Proposed (This Yr.) Productline C Expected Proposed Total (This Yr.) Invoicing (Rs. lakhs) Order booking (Rs. lakhs) Contribution (Rs. lakhs) Selling expenses (% of sale) Advances (% of backlog) Inventory outstanding (No. of days sale) l/o/./, No.1, January 1976 17 Appendix VII Contingency Plan Developed by a Large Multi-Product, Multi-Location Company* The Business Plan closed with a series of comparative financial statements which depicted the estimated item-byitem effect if sales fell to 60% or to 80% of forecast or increased to 120% of forecast. For each of these levels of possible sales, costs were divided into three categories: fixed costs, unavoidable variable costs, and management discretionary costs. Management described the specific actions it would take to control employment, total assets, and capital expenditures in case of a reduction in sales and when these actions would be put into effect. In its 1966 Business Plan, Galvor indicated that its programme for contraction would be put into effect if incoming orders dropped below 60% of budget for two weeks, 75% for four weeks, or 85% for eight weeks. It noted that assets would be cut only to 80% in a 60% year and to 90% in an 80% year "because re modernization of our business is too essential for survival to slow down much more." * Reproduced from "The Galvor Company (R-3)" case (Lausanne, Switzerland: IMEDE, Management Development Institute, 1967). Appendix VIII Action Plans Formulated by a Large Multi-Product, Multi-Location Company in Support of Quantitative Annual Business Plan* The Business Plan described the major management actions planned for the next two years with an estimate of the favourable or unfavourable effect each action would have on total sales, net income, and total assets. Among some of the major management actions described in Galvor's 1966 Business Plan (prepared in mid-1965) were the following : Implement standard cost system Revise prices Cut oldest low-margin items from line Standardize and simplify product design Create forward research and development plan Install punch card inventory system Implement product planning. Separate plans were presented for each of the functional areas—marketing, manufacturing, research and 18 development, financial control, and personnel and employee relations. These functional plans began with a statement of the function's mission, an analysis of its present problems and opportunities, and a statement of the specific actions it intended to take in the next two years. Among the objectives set for the control area in the 1966 Business Plan were: Better distribute tasks Make more intensive use of IBM equipment Replace non-qualified employees with better trained and more dynamic people. * Reproduced from "The Galvor Company (R-3)" case (Lausanne, Switzerland: IMEDE, Management Development Institute, 1967). Vikalpa Appendix IX Economic and Business Trends Information for Policy Review For the quarter ended. 19 Part I : Marketing/Commercial Data for Policy Review GMS (Product 6roups)/Reglonal Manager 1. What are the significant political, economic, and business trends in terms of your operations which emerged during the period ? 2. What suggestions do you have for meeting such trends at a) your level and b) corporate level ? 3. Which products performed indifferently during the period ? What are the reasons for such performance and what steps should be taken to improve the position ? 4. What are the significant developments in terms of our competitors' policies/products/performance ? 5. What new opportunities/threats do you see for our organization in relation to your products/area ? What policies or actions would you like corporate management to consider in this context ? 6. What is your assessment of business conditions during the next six months? What changes in opera tional policy should we consider now to meet any changes in the environment or competition ? 7. Any comments which you think would be relevant and helpful to corporate management in assessing economic and business trends, and what tactical changes in our policy would you suggest to achieve the organizational objectives identified in the Corporate Policy Guidelines ? Part II : Production Data for Policy Review GM (Production) 1. What significant changes/trends have emerged in the regulatory policies or otherwise concerning power, labour, wages, employment, etc., with regard to production operations ? 2. What significant changes/trends are discernible regarding supply of raw materials, bought out parts from anci- llary units, and the performance of sub-contractors? 3. What are the implications for the organization, and what suggestions do you have for meeting such trends at a) your level and b) corporate level? 4. Any other relevant comments. Part III : Financial Data for Policy Review GM (Finance) 1. What are the significant economic and business trends in terms of your operations which emerged during the period ? 2. What significant changes/trends have emerged in the regulatory policies affecting finance and credit ? 3. What are the significant developments, in the area of finance, of our competitors with respect to their performance/policies ? 4. What are the implications for the organization, and Vo!.1, No.1, January 1976 what suggestions do you have for meeting such trends at a) your level and b) corporate level ? 5. What is your assessment of the financial environment during the next six months ? 6. What changes in our policy would you suggest in the light of the above to achieve the organizational objectives identified in the Corporate Policy Guidelines? 7. Any other relevant comments. 19