06/2012
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Study
In-depth knowledge for decision makers
High volatility on stock markets: MSCI emerging market index
with significant variations (market capitalization, USD billion)
8,000
7,200
6,600
5,200
3,500
2006
2008
2009
2011
2012
Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy at the right time in emerging markets
global topics
8 billion
Emerging markets promise substantial new business
opportunities. But they require management to navigate
increasingly volatile markets that greatly complicate
economic forecasting. To help executives make more accurate
strategic decisions, this publication describes a very
successful and versatile strategic scenario planning tool.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Scenarios planning can improve the forecasting of company-relevant
trends in highly volatile markets like the automotive industry.
Study 3
global topics
8 billion
Scenario planning – how to find the right strategy
at the right time in emerging markets
Introduction
p4
Guidance in uncertain times –
Scenario planning step by step
p8
Conclusion
p 20
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
introduction
Highly sensitive, linked and volatile emerging markets
complicate forecasting considerably
Study 5
"In emerging markets, volatility is the new normality.
We cannot look more than three years ahead in these countries."
Siegfried Gänßlen, CEO of Hansgrohe, a leading German
sanitary and fittings company
Signs of more volatility are everywhere. The stock markets of
emerging countries are one good example. Over the last five years,
for instance, the Shanghai Composite moved between 1,500 and
6,000 points, and EGX, Egypt's leading share price index, swung
between 12,000 and 5,000 points. During this same period, oil
prices fluctuated from USD 40 to 140 a barrel – a range exceeding
250%. Other commodities, such as raw materials from emerging
markets and the developing world, also show large price
swings. For example, aluminum prices over the same five years
ranged between USD 1,400 and 3,300 a ton, a difference of
more than 100%.
Volatility is found not only in the economic sphere, but in politics
as well. A prime example here is the Arab world. Since the
Arab Spring began in January 2011, one country after the next has
experienced some degree of upheaval. Foreign companies are
uncertain about the consequences for their Middle East business
and investments, which recently totaled USD 15 billion annually.
f1 Given this volatility, managers find it increasingly difficult to
anticipate how changes and trends could impact their business.
Traditional foreign investment planning cycles of ten years or
more are no longer feasible. Plans must be reviewed and revised
at much shorter intervals.
What are successful companies
doing differently?
f2 As this book seeks to show, emerging markets have enormous
business potential. Emerging countries plan to invest a total
of nearly USD 30 trillion in their B2B and B2C sectors over the next
20 years, according to Roland Berger estimates. These immense
disbursements will improve the lives of millions of citizens across
the world. But leveraging the full potential of these investments
can be achieved only by companies that correctly position their
strategies.
Companies must adapt skillfully to market movements. Rapid
economic growth in China, for example, is turning many people
into millionaires. The number of Chinese households worth
at least USD 1 million leapt by over 60% in 2010. China recorded
1.1 million millionaire households that year, considerably more
than the 670,000 it had in 2009. Many of these new millionaires
prefer products that cater to their unique cultural tastes.
Foreign companies now need to design and deliver products
to satisfy a more diverse customer base.
A good example is Hansgrohe, which wins plaudits for international
competitiveness based on high-style, high-quality minimalist
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
F1
A consequence of the high volatility is
that traditional planning cycles are no
longer any good. Forecasts of business
experts also differ significantly
5.4
Global GDP growth, 2000 -2011 (%)
IMF
4.8
4.5
IMF
2007
IMF
2000
2011
2005
3.9
IMF
2.9
Consensus
2001
2.4
IMF
Time horizons of traditional corporate planning, 2000 – 2011
Strategic planning
Traditional organizational structure
Medium-term planning
Operational planning
10 years
5-7 years
3-5 years
1 year
2009
-0.6
IMF
Source: IMF, Roland Berger
Study 7
F2
Emerging countries plan to invest a total of nearly USD 30 trillion
in their B2B and B2C sectors over the next 20 years, according
to Roland Berger estimates
USD 30,000,
000,000,000
faucet designs. But after entering China, the company soon
discovered that Chinese homeowners do not favor sleek and trim
faucets. They want very visible, substantial handles and bodies.
After some in-house soul-searching, Hansgrohe designed a line of
heavyweight mixers exclusively for China. These bathroom fixtures
are now marketed very successfully to Chinese homeowners, but
they don't feature in the product catalog outside China.
When planning to enter emerging markets, successful companies
respond to trends outside their core industry. Siemens serves as
an excellent example of how to derive strategy from megatrends.
The company set up a dedicated department for sustainable urban
development. By tracking and analyzing broad long-term trends,
such as population change and urbanization, Siemens became a
global pioneer in sustainable urban development, especially
among emerging and developing countries. Siemens also bet on
higher emerging market demand for cheap and easy to use SMART
products: Simple, Maintenance-friendly, Affordable, Reliable
and Timely to market. With these design principles, they design
products pitched to the needs of newly industrializing and
developing countries. A good example is portable X-ray equipment,
which is now indispensable for doctors in Africa practicing in
clinics distributed across a large geographical area.
What are the risks?
However, if executives do not correctly interpret emerging and
developing economy market conditions, companies may
experience difficulties. According to Roland Berger estimates,
German companies investing in emerging markets with the wrong
strategy miss potential revenues of several USD 100 million
a year. What's more, industrialized countries will find their
innovative edge quickly dulled if they miss tomorrow's trends.
Asia's automotive industry has already leapt over several
development stages in a single bound to dominate battery
technology, a critical e-mobility component. Chinese, Indian and
Arab companies increasingly bid for European and American
acquisitions. In 2011, for the first time, Europe was the top
destination for Chinese direct investment, totaling
USD 10.4 billion.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Guidance in uncertain
times – Scenario planning
step by step
An approach that guides companies to strategic success
Study 9
What approach can guide companies
to success in uncertain times?
Changes in the macro environment outside of a company's
industry, such as political, social, ecological, economic or
technological developments, often play a decisive role in the
success of the company's business model. A holistic perspective
is therefore strongly recommended to incorporate macroenvironment factors in a flexible strategic plan.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants collaborated with HHL Leipzig
to design a scenario planning methodology that can give com­
panies faster and earlier warning about important macroenvironment events, trends and changes. This analytical method
works like radar to track movements far beyond a company and
its industry. The methodology can detect "weak signal" influences
that typically only become evident in the long run. "Blind spots"
that are hidden in companies preoccupied by internal perspectives
become transparent. To develop this holistic view, our scenario
planning analytic techniques take into account the opinions of
many internal and external stakeholders.
Scenario planning is an appropriate tool for global companies in
all industries – whether automotive or pharmaceuticals, manufac­
turing or services, aviation or energy utilities – that wish to
position themselves successfully in emerging and developing
countries.
Our method for developing key future scenarios involves
five core steps.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
1.
Defining
the scope
F3
The first step defines the project focus, the markets to develop
scenarios for and the time frame. To illustrate in general
terms how the process works, we will use a recent scenario
planning study from the global manufacturing industry.
"Manufacturing industry" here refers to a wide spectrum of
sectors, from mining and chemicals to metals manufacturing
and materials fabrication.
Manufacturing sectors are surging ahead in many
emerging economies. Over the past five years, their share
of global manufacturing output climbed from 30% to 50%
f3 Manufacturing sectors are surging ahead in many emerging
economies. Over the past five years, their share of global
manufacturing output climbed from 30% to 50%. Annual revenues
now reach around USD 20 trillion.1 Emerging economy govern­
ments recognize the special importance of a manufacturing base.
Not only does industry employ a significant share of their
labor force, but it also supplies strategically important products
to improve critical sectors such as the national infrastructure.
How a country's manufacturing industry will evolve is clearly
strategically relevant to foreign producers and suppliers seeking
to enter and expand in emerging markets. But manufacturing's
diversity presents a challenge for developing coherent manufac­
turing industry scenarios. To tackle this challenge, Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants has defined a set of scenarios and
appropriate business opportunities within the general manufac­
turing industry. The concept development was grounded in the
customer and industry needs and trends of 2020 and factored in
input from internal stakeholders and external experts.
2012
50%
2007
30%
1) IHS Global Insight (2012)
Source: IHS Global Insight
Study 11
2.
Selecting
stakeholders
Scenario planning can help companies better anticipate how
macro-environment events could affect future performance and
business opportunities. A key initial step is to canvass the views
and opinions of the most important internal stakeholders, such
as board members, top executives, key strategic and managerial
staff, and industry experts. When assessing emerging country
markets, we also identify appropriate external stakeholders and
market experts, such as politicians, members of the chamber of
commerce or local customers and suppliers. Identifying and
accessing the most knowledgeable individuals may not proceed
as efficiently as in familiar or advanced markets, but their voices
are critically important. It's also advisable to interview people
who work at competitors. One leading German electronics group,
for example, always attempts to talk with local competitors' staff
before launching operations in a newly industrializing country.
Plant visits can also offer valuable insights into local conditions.
In our survey, we approach a broad range of stakeholders and
generally 40 to 50 respondents participate.
3.
Conducting
the survey
To illustrate how we conduct the survey and apply its findings to
create key scenarios, we'll refer to the previously mentioned
global manufacturing industry study. We start by using Roland
Berger's "360° stakeholder feedback questionnaire" to identify
those factors most likely to affect the global manufacturing
industry. First, we list influencing factors along the so-called STEEP
dimensions – Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and
Political/legal – and develop a questionnaire about them. We then
distribute this questionnaire to internal stakeholders (across
functions) and external experts (e.g. from local industry, think
tanks, academia, etc.) across critical manufacturing sectors
and geographical locations. The respondents identify 40 to 50
separate influencing factors, which are then clustered in a second
survey to score each factor in terms of two key criteria:
Impact – How significant ­
is the influencing factor
in a global context?
Certainty – What is the
probability the influencing
factor will occur?
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
4.
Detecting weak signals
and blind spots
The next step is to compare internal and external stakeholders'
assessments and consolidate findings. All factors that show
potentially significant influence are identified, paying particular
attention to "weak signals" and "blind spots".
"Weak signals" are trends only a few stakeholders mention in the
first survey, but nearly all second-round respondents rate as
factors that could become highly relevant to a company's future
performance. For example, the global manufacturing study
detected that companies greatly underestimate the importance
of securing access to rare earth metals. Future demand will be
enormous. The industry already uses around 130,000 tons per
year of these rare metals worldwide. Neodymium and yttrium, for
example, are particularly important in electric car batteries and
engines. Rising use of these materials is also boosted by
electronic equipment like flat-screen televisions and industrial
superconductors. Analysts predict that demand will reach
190,000 tons in 2015. To meet that demand, Europe is highly
dependent on maintaining good relationships with supplier
countries, notably China.
"Blind spots" are differences in how internal and external
stakeholders interpret a factor's importance. For example,
our pharmaceutical and automotive sector studies show
that when management gives excessive attention to internal
perceptions and preoccupations, important market
opportunities may be missed.
Our survey of the automotive sector discovered another blind spot:
some managers severely underestimate the market potential of
simpler, more affordable vehicles. In India, small or economy
cars account for over 70% of all new vehicle registrations. Another
internal misperception was a failure to appreciate emerging
economy manufacturers' competitive strengths. Over the last five
years, passenger car production in developed countries decreased
by 2% annually to 32 million, but in developing countries, car
assembly doubled from 16 to 32 million cars. Emerging market
manufacturers now also venture into European territory:
Great Wall Motors will be the first Chinese automaker to
assemble cars in the European Union when the company opens
a car manufacturing plant in Bulgaria. The plant will have an
annual production capacity of 50,000 units and assemble four
different models – a sports utility vehicle (SUV), a pickup and
two passenger car models – which are all expected to be sold in
the European Union.
Qoros, a Chinese brand previously unknown in Germany, recently
announced plans to sell cars in Europe. Starting in mid-2013,
some 150,000 vehicles will roll off Qoros production lines and
capacity will ramp up to double the output within the next few
years. The company intends to earn half its revenue in Europe.
These examples show how European-based companies may
miss market opportunities and lose revenue if they concentrate
too intently on internal opinions and priorities.
A recent pharmaceutical industry survey of all stakeholders
detected insufficient in-house appreciation of biosimilars. These
are bioengineered follow-on drugs officially approved after the
original drug's patent has expired. Experts predict the biosimilar
market, with total sales of USD 400 million in 2010, will grow in
four years to USD 2 or 3 billion.2 The reason why biosimilars are
an exciting option for the pharmaceutical industry is that
more and more emerging countries will demand and have the
resources to pay for improved healthcare. The trends are already
apparent. Over the past five years, per capita health spending
in the BRIC countries rose by USD 87. In absolute terms,
this means people purchased an additional USD 252 billion3
in healthcare services.
2) Global Industry Analysts (2010) 3) Euromonitor (2011)
Study 13
5.
Deriving
scenarios
F4
To illustrate this step, we return to our study of the global
manufacturing industry. Based on stakeholder evaluations, the
factors that influence global manufacturing can be allocated
into the following categories:
Influencing factors are categorized
by potential impact and certainty
High
Critical uncertainties
or weak signals (low certainty but highest
impact on the scenarios)
Definite trends*
(high certainty, high impact)
Potential
impact
Secondary elements
These elements elements are eliminated
(low impact)
LOW
LOW
Certainty
* Definite trends:
Growth of developing countries as end-use
markets (e.g. China and India)
Use of nanotechnology, miniaturization
and microelectronics
Transition to lightweight materials (e.g. composites)
Source: Roland Berger
high
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
F5
Scenario building process following
a step-by-step approach
Long list of relevant
uncertainties
Move to trend
No
Check importance
of "un-clustered"
uncertainty
Yes
Build scenario
matrix using key
uncertainties
Re-cut dimensions
No
Cluster by
common
theme?
Important uncertainty
Yes
Uncertain?
Trends
stable in
each future?
Yes
No
Re-cut common
themes & scenario
dimensions
Source: Roland Berger
We found that resource intensity and economic protectionism are
the major key uncertainties likely to have the largest impact
across the entire industrial sector. These uncertainties become
the scenario matrix axes pictured in figures 5 and 6.
Matrix dimension: resource intensity
Resource intensity refers to the level of natural resource
consumption, such as the use of metals or water. Government
subsidies and regulations can substantially determine an
in­dustrial economy's resource intensity, and consumer pre­f­
erences for green and sustainable products play a role as well.
Impact of the resource intensity dimension
Resource intensity exerts considerable influence on product
development, production processes and end-product handling.
New alternative materials and more economical production
technologies may ease future resource constraints. But this
possibility doesn't negate the substantial historical and continuing
investment in large-scale manufacturing using conventional
technologies and energy sources.
Study 15
High protectionism
F6
Four major future scenarios for the global
manufacturing industry
Protectionism
(incl. trade blocs)
Compliance with green
regulations but no level
playing field
Customer-driven mfg.
aligned with domestic
demand
I
Antagonistic
age
II
Polarized
world
Low resource intensity
Free movement
of goods and ideas
Collective emphasis
on sustainability and
waste reduction
Modular mfg. with madeto-order products
Globalization restrained
by national interests
Poor compliance with
green/waste regulations
Manufacturing close
to demand
High resource intensity
IV
Green
capitalism
III
Squandering
society
Free trade, incl. threats
of dumping
Low sustainability
awareness – focus on
personal utility
Mass production with
homogeneous products
Source: Roland Berger
Low protectionism
Matrix dimension: protectionism
Protectionism refers to market-distorting mechanisms, such as
duties, tariffs and foreign ownership restrictions that nations and
regions apply to advance their own trade interests and economic
agendas. These techniques seek to preserve critical resources and
can extend to intellectual property, patent protection and, more
dramatically, industrial espionage.
Impact of the protectionism dimension
Economic protectionism significantly influences global markets,
and frequently complicates production and logistics.
These two key uncertainties, protectionism and resource
intensity, let us explore comprehensive scenario storylines. We
will now consider four plausible scenarios by validating trends and
describing scenario dimensions in more detail, with particular
attention to how companies in developed countries might enter
emerging markets.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
An antagonistic age of low resource
intensity and high protectionism
In this vision of the future, countries with abundant raw materials
focus on production technologies, while those without, such
as those in Western Europe, design or develop alternatives. Novel
materials are designed for specific applications and scientists
create a new periodic table of nanomaterials. Industrialized and
high-tech regions of Western Europe, North America and Australia
benefit most from these developments because they can leverage
and exchange their valuable expertise and skills for commodities.
This defines trade flows with such emerging markets as China and
Brazil. Winning industries include energy, especially those
companies that can produce green energy, due to rising demand
for renewables from equipment manufacturers. Micro-generation
and co-generation technologies are particularly important.
High protectionist barriers make it very difficult for European hightech companies to penetrate emerging markets. The automotive
industry sees a boost in demand for electric cars. But as cars are
no longer sold globally, major car exporting nations like Germany
and the US lose substantial market share across Asia and Latin
America. Resource constraints and environmental protection hit
the cement and energy sectors particularly hard.
Complying with regional environmental standards
to satisfy regulations
Securing access to natural resources
(or cooperating with organizations for indirect access)
Leveraging expert know-how and innovative
technologies to develop substitute materials
Attracting and retaining well-educated human capital
with emerging market expertise
Forging strategic trade relations with local
emerging market suppliers
Study 17
A polarized world with high resource
intensity and high protectionism
Enterprises in resource-rich countries prosper at the expense of
large multinationals. This shift in economic power leaves resourcepoor economies such as Western Europe and Japan scrambling
to source raw materials. Countries with natural resources focus on
production technologies, while resource-poor countries design
and develop alternative materials. Resource-rich regions,
especially those with large regional markets and technologically
advanced economies, flourish. These include North America, China,
India, Russia, Brazil, Australia and the Middle East. But Japan
and Western Europe lose out in this future vision because high
protectionism inhibits trade in resources.
Developing regions' demand for steel and cement soars as
countries pursue ambitious agendas to modernize infrastructures
and catch up with the developed world. Substantial chemical
production shifts to China, Russia and the Middle East as
manufacturers move closer to customers and markets. Due to
high protectionism, developed nation manufacturers find it
difficult to install production facilities in the new emerging
markets.
Energy remains a core industry dominated by fossil fuels. The
mining sector invests in underground extraction as minerals
become harder and harder to find. The automotive sector suffers
from market fragmentation, and protectionism signals the end
of global brand cars like the Ford Focus. European manufacturers
lose significant market share as emerging countries focus on
regional car brands.
Securing access to natural resources
(or cooperating with organizations for indirect access)
Optimizing costs by exploiting resources cost-effectively
to ensure competitively priced products
Restructuring operations (incl. small-scale plants)
to supply local/regional markets
Forging strategic relations with local emerging market
suppliers to provide technologies and services for
the booming infrastructure sector
Taking marketing actions to establish a regional brand
among emerging market suppliers
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
A squandering society with high resource
intensity and low protectionism
Developed nations can potentially profit by supporting emerging
nations' efforts to mass-produce low-cost goods. A particularly
apt example is Siemens' SMART product line. In this scenario,
more global attention is paid to "reverse innovation", inventions
created in developing countries and disseminated to the
industrialized world. An example is the Tata Nano automobile,
upgraded for Western markets and marketed as Tata Europe.
Gigantic, complex supply chains create immense business value
for companies that have the capability to orchestrate these
chains and delay customization. Technology companies that can
"glue" the manufacturing economy together will increasingly
capture value. Large-scale fossil fuel power plants still dominate
the energy sector, driving open-pit mining for coal and more
exploitation of resources in Africa. Gas guzzlers dominate
the automotive landscape. Millions of first-time car buyers in
the emerging markets of China and India crave prestige cars
from the West. Western manufacturers are able to exploit
this lucrative market. Electric vehicle technology transfers
from developed to developing countries, only to languish in a
niche existence. Industrialized nations' renewable energy
solutions take a backseat, as do micro energy generation
technologies.
Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs
and ensure know-how transfer
Guaranteeing access to well-educated personnel with local
market know-how to develop innovative products and solutions
Developing mass production capabilities to address
emerging market demand
Optimizing costs to offer competitively priced products
Setting up a global supply chain to guarantee delivery
of Western products like prestige cars to emerging markets
and also to market reverse innovations back to
industrialized nations
Study 19
Capitalism goes green with low resource
intensity and low protectionism
Developed economies pursue strong market opportunities in a
low protectionist environment conducive to foreign direct
investment and knowledge transfer. There is high uptake in the
renewable energy sector, which benefits developed country
providers and equipment manufacturers. Micro energy generation
technologies are widespread. With the required infrastructure
in place, electric vehicles are prevalent. Western companies have
the opportunity to export their car technologies to emerging
markets. Novel materials are designed for specific uses and
environments. Additive manufacturing moves out of niche
applications into mainstream manufacturing. Increased use of
steel and glass, especially in buildings, lowers demand for cement.
A potentially large market develops for Western construction
companies. The regional winners will be Western Europe, North
America, Japan, Brazil, India and China.
This future also sees an end to rising energy demand as fossil fuel
power generation declines. Traditional Middle East fossil fuel
economies are the losers in this scenario. Western dependence
on oil-exporting countries such as Iran decreases significantly.
Green capitalism stresses the mining industry as substitutes are
found and consumers lobby against excessive and destructive
mining practices.
Complying with environmental standards to satisfy
regulations and consumer requirements
Setting up local R&D facilities to fulfill customer needs
and ensure know-how transfer
Securing access to well-educated personnel to develop
innovative products and solutions, such as lightweight
materials and biodegradable components
Instituting a green product life cycle, including a
green global supply chain
Adopting a modular manufacturing philosophy with
made-to-order production
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Conclusion
How to benefit from the different scenarios
Study 21
Trying to identify business opportunities in an uncertain future is
a tough challenge. But the scenario planning designed by HHL
Leipzig and Roland Berger helps strategic planners and decisionmakers identify the most relevant future scenarios in specific
industries and regions.
Each of the four scenarios described for the global manufacturing
industry represents an extreme vision of the future. The world may
never resemble any of these positions exactly, but the trends and
issues identified in each will shape the eventual outcomes.
Industries in any region could exhibit characteristics from different
scenarios depending on how protectionism and resource intensity
affect industry-specific dynamics. Companies from developed
nations will succeed if they can identify opportunities that cut
across several scenarios and, with a little tweaking, find strategies
to capture the full potential of any possible scenario.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Author
Bernd Brunke
Partner and Member of the
Global Executive Committee, Berlin
Benno van Dongen Partner, Amsterdam
benno.dongen@rolandberger.com
bernd.brunke@rolandberger.com
William Downey
Partner, New York
william.downey@rolandberger.com
Co-Authors
Christophe Angoulvant
Partner, Paris
christophe.angoulvant@rolandberger.com
Duce Gotora
Project Manager, London
duce.gotora@rolandberger.com
Dr. Wilfried Aulbur
Partner, Mumbai
Carolin Griese-Michels
Principal, Hamburg
wilfried.aulbur@rolandberger.com
carolin.griese@rolandberger.com
Andreas Bauer
Partner, Munich
Maren Hauptmann
Partner, Munich
andreas.bauer@rolandberger.com
maren.hauptmann@rolandberger.com
Study 23
Daniel Himmel
Project Manager, Berlin
Per I. Nilsson
Partner, Stockholm
daniel.himmel@rolandberger.com
per-i.nilsson@rolandberger.com
Nicklas Holgersson
Project Manager, London
Dr. Verena Reichl
Senior Expert, Munich
nicklas.holgersson@rolandberger.com
verena.reichl@rolandberger.com
Fabian Huhle
Principal, Munich
Tina Wang
Partner, Beijing
fabian.huhle@rolandberger.com
tina.wang@rolandberger.com
Dr. Johannes Klein
Principal, Berlin
Dr. Tim Zimmermann
Partner, Munich
johannes.klein@rolandberger.com
tim.zimmermann@rolandberger.com
Frank Lateur
Principal, Brussels
Dr. Michael Zollenkop
Principal, Stuttgart
michael.zollenkop@rolandberger.com
frank.lateur@rolandberger.com
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Sources
African Business Magazine (2012)
ICT: Silicon Savanna ready to take on the world
Allfacebook.de (2012)
Facebook user statistics
S. D. Anthony et al. (2006)
Seven principles of disruptive innovation
S. Arrison (2011)
100 plus: How the coming age of longevity will change everything,
from careers and relationships to family and faith
G. O. Barney (1980)
The Global 2000 Report to the President
Battelle (2012)
Global R&D Funding Forecast (2012)
CTPartners (2012)
Emerging markets trend talk report
DB Research (2011)
Research follows production
Diabetes Atlas (2010)
Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes
for 2010 and 2030
Digital Capital Advisors (2012)
The evolutionary shift to mobile
Discover Digital Arabia (2012)
Online shopping in the Arab world
Economist (2012)
Consumer goods in Africa – A continent goes shopping
K. Below et al. (2012)
Der Aufstieg der BIC-Staaten als Wissensmächte
Economist Intelligence Unit
– Country data (2011, 2012)
– People for growth: The talent challenge
in emerging markets (2008)
Bloomberg (2012)
Share price and index data
Edelman (2012)
goodpurpose® study
W. H. Buiter and E. Rahbari (2011)
Global growth generators: Moving beyond
emerging markets and BRICs
Y. Emmanuel and B.D. Gelb (2010)
Better marketing to developing countries: Why and how
Catalyst (2005)
The bottom line: Connecting corporate performance and gender
diversity
Euromonitor (2011, 2012)
Country and consumer data
Eurostat (2012)
Innovation and research data
M. Chutnik and K. Grzesik (2009)
Leading a virtual intercultural team. Implications for virtual team
leaders
Experientia (2012)
Designing for emerging markets
CNN Money (2011)
Global Fortune 500
Food and Agriculture Organization (2009/2010)
How to feed the world in 2050
Credit Suisse (2012)
Emerging Markets Research Institute –
Opportunities in an urbanizing world
Forbes (2011)
Diversity & inclusion: Unlocking global potential
Global diversity rankings by country, sector and occupation
Study 25
S. S. Garr (2011)
Retaining talent in emerging markets
International Labor Organization (2011)
Global employment trends 2012
Gartner Inc. (2011)
Market Trends: Mobile payments worldwide
International Monetary Fund (2011)
World Economic Outlook databases
General Electric (2012)
Global Innovation Barometer
Internet World Stats (2011)
Usage and population statistics
Global Industry Analysts (2010)
Biosimilars: A global strategic business report
jana.com (2012)
Why mobile ads in emerging markets are the future
Goldman Sachs (2010)
Global Economics Paper No. 170 and 204
The power of the purse
B. Jaruzelski, Kevin Dehoff (2008)
The Global Innovation 1000
V. Govindarajan (2012)
The $2,000 car
S. A. Hewlett et al. (2010)
Winning the war for talent in emerging markets
S. A. Hewlett and R. Rashid (2010)
The globe: The battle for female talent in emerging markets
Knight Frank (2012)
Prime International Residential Index (PIRI)
Leipzig Graduate School of Management (2010)
Future scenarios for the European airline industry
T. R. Malthus (1798)
An essay on the principle of population
IBM (2011)
Global Location Trends
B. Minchington (2011)
Employer branding without borders – a pathway
to corporate success
IHS Global Insight (2011, 2012)
Data Insight Web
National Science Board (2012)
Science and engineering indicators 2012
J. R. Immelt (2009)
How GE is disrupting itself
new economic foundation, Centre for Well-being (2012)
Happy Planet Index
Innovation 360 Group (2012)
The missing link between innovation strategy
and leadership in the Middle East
OECD (2010)
The emerging middle class in developing countries
INSEAD (2011)
The Global Innovation Index 2011
Interbrand (2012)
Best global brands 2011
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2007)
2007 update of probabilistic world population projections
F. Pearce (2011)
The coming population crash – And our planet's surprising future
Population Resource Center (2008)
Population and the food crisis
C. K. Prahalad (2006)
The innovation paradox
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
I. Razak (2009)
The correlation between population and
economic growth in Malaysia
P. Reddy (2008)
Global innovation in emerging economies –
Implications for other developing countries
Q. M. Robinson and H. J. Park (2006)
Examining the link between diversity and firm performance:
The effects of diversity reputation and leader racial diversity
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
– Automotive Landscape 2025 (2011)
– Corporate headquarters study (2005, 2008, 2010)
– Frugal products (2012)
– Manufacturing futures – Using scenario planning to identify
opportunities in a multi-sector industry (2011)
– Modular products – How to leverage modular product kits
for growth and globalization (2012)
– Organizing and managing R&D in high-tech industries (2011)
– think: act CONTENT – Diversity and inclusion too soft a subject?
Not at all (2010)
– think: act CONTENT – Scenario planning (2009)
– think: act STUDY – Chinese consumer report (2009)
– think: act STUDY – Delivering financial services in
sub-Saharan Africa (2011)
– Trend Compendium 2030 (2011)
L. Taylor (2011)
Diabetes - pharma's fastest-growing market
The German Foundation for World Population (2011, 2012)
Online project: 7 billion
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(2010, 2011)
World Investment Report
United Nations (1960, 2009, 2010, 2011)
The future growth of the world population (1960)
World Population Prospects – The 2009 and 2010 Revision
World Urbanization Prospects – The 2009 and 2011 Revision
W. W. Weber (2008)
Managing complexity – Lessons from Peter Drucker and
Niklas Luhmann
T. Yasuyuki and S. Hitoshi (2011)
Effects of CEOs' characteristics on internationalization of
small and medium enterprises in Japan
W. Zhang (2011)
Understanding China's economic trajectory
World Bank (2011)
The Ease of Doing Business Index
Roland Berger School of Strategy and Economics (2012)
Scenario update 2012
World Economic Forum et al. (2010)
Stimulating economies through fostering talent mobility
Saleschase (2012)
Why mobile marketing in emerging markets is the next big thing
World Economic Forum (2012)
WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2011/2012
F. Siebdrat, M. Hoegl and H. Ernst (2009)
How to manage virtual teams
WorldPay (2012)
Global Online Shopping Report
Simon Kucher (2011)
Dax Management: Sehr international aber kaum weiblich
Spiegel Magazine (44/2011)
Das große Schrumpfen
Süddeutsche Zeitung (6/2012)
Die digitale Revolution erobert Afrika
Study 27
Credits
Special thanks to
Pages 2: sinopictures/viewchina
Our interviewees:
Siegfried Gänßlen, CEO Hansgrohe AG
Manfred Grundke, General Partner Knauf Gips KG
Ruth Schaefer, CEO Ruth Schaefer Intercultural
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global Topics
project description
With our GLOBAL TOPICS initiative, we
assess the most pressing issues for
leaders in society, business and politics
and outline possible solutions.
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
For more information, please visit:
www.rolandberger.com/globaltopics
If you have any questions, please contact us at:
global_topics@rolandberger.com
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH
HighLight Towers, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Str. 6, 80807 Munich, Germany
Study 30