PERSPECTIVES Tempo and mode of speciation in the sea Jeremy B.C. Jackson Alan H. Cheetham The theory of punctuated equilibria proposed that most fossil species exhibit morphological stasis for millions of years between geologically instantaneous shifts in morphology associated with splitting of lineages by allopatric speciation. The theory initially spawned more rhetoric than data, but the few sufficiently detailed studies now available generally support the punctuated pattern. The realities of punctuation and stasis need to be better incorporated into evolutionary studies. Punctuated speciation does not contradict conventional neodarwinian mechanisms, but it does constrain the range of probable evolutionary scenarios for speciation, evolution of life histories and macroevolutionary trends. Second, morphological stasis for millions of years was unexpected9, despite revisionism to the contrary. Unfortunately, much of the continuing debate ignores most of what we have learned since 1972, and new reports of gradual or punctuated speciation have not been subjected to consistently rigorous critical evaluation despite great differences in the quality of evidence available. Here we assess the frequency of well documented cases of punctuated equilibria in the sea, with emphasis on the kinds of evidence required to measure the tempo of morphological evolutionary change in the fossil record. Requirements to test the theory of punctuated equilibria Jeremy Jackson is at the Center for Tropical Paleoecology and Archeology, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Box 2072 Balboa, Republic of Panama, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0220, USA; Alan Cheetham is at the Dept of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20560, USA (jbjackson@ucsd.edu; cheetham.alan@nmnh.si.edu). F or all its problems, real and imagined, the fossil record provides the only long-term record of the tempo of morphological evolution and speciation based on direct evidence. Direct biological measurements of evolution are limited by the generation times of the organisms involved, which even for the bacterium Escherichia coli works out to less than 13105 generations in a scientist’s lifetime1. However, most fossil species persist for 13106 to 13107 generations (with a generation time of approximately one year or more) without discernible change2. Indirect biological measurements based on molecular divergence among closely related living species necessarily ignore untold numbers of extinct species scattered across the phylogenetic landscape and their unknown relations to those still alive3. Moreover, based as they are on the assumption of a molecular clock, molecular phylogenies can tell us little about the tempo of evolutionary change without reliable, independent calibrations of amounts of genetic divergence that have occurred since geologically well dated times of divergence based on the fossil record4. Despite the enormous potential, there were few rigorous paleontological studies of speciation until 1972 when the controversial theory of punctuated equilibria5 stimulated a flurry of new work. The theory was based on the twin empirical observations that most fossil species originate geologically instantaneously during cladogenesis (branching of evolutionary lineages to produce one or more new species), with the persistence of ancestral species, and otherwise exhibit 72 morphological stasis over millions of years with no net change. Much of the subsequent controversy concerned skepticism about the universal importance of natural selection for speciation by some proponents of the theory6 and the inevitably critical neodarwinian response7,8. But, despite the rhetoric, the theory was revolutionary for two reasons. First, it took the fossil record at face value for the first time since Darwin, who had invoked gaps in the record to explain away the absence of intermediate forms in evolutionary lineages. Large gaps certainly exist8 but can commonly be overcome by replicate sampling in different places. Morphological change can exhibit a continuum of evolutionary patterns from highly punctuated cladogenesis to gradual anagenesis (change without branching of lineages to produce additional species)10. Thus, support for punctuated equilibria requires that changes in morphology within a species are so small and unsustained directionally that they cannot account for morphological differences between ancestors and descendants11. This in turn requires rigorous taxonomy, sampling, stratigraphy and phylogenetic analysis12,13. To compare the morphology of populations in space and time quantitatively, taxonomic resolution must be sufficient to discriminate species with confidence. Consequently, good preservation of abundant, morphologically complex fossils is necessary to obtain enough specimens and characters for biometrical discrimination of morphospecies (species Box 1. Speciation of tropical American cheilostome bryozoans Metrarabdotos and Stylopoma Methods: taxonomy, distributions and phylogenies were completely revised11–13. • Taxonomy: morphologically defined species (morphospecies) were discriminated using replicate measurements of 46 zooidal characters for Metrarabdotos and 12 for Stylopoma. Colonies were assigned to morphospecies based on clustering and the classification function of discriminant function analysis. • Sampling: more than 120 recent and fossil collections were made for each genus. New ages of fossils were determined using planktonic foraminifera and nannoplankton. • Phylogenies: cladistic methods were used for both genera using 33 qualitative and quantitative characters for Metrarabdotos and 14 for Stylopoma. Phylogenies for Metrarabdotos were also constructed based on phenetic similarity and stratigraphic position (stratophenetics). Results: speciation was punctuated in both genera11–13. • Taxonomy: splitting morphospecies as finely as possible gave the best fit between morphologic and genetic data for seven species of Stylopoma. Only one out of 237 colonies was classified incorrectly. • Sampling: neotropical Stylopoma and Metrarabdotos originated 15 to 25 million years ago. Stratigraphic confidence intervals during the past 10 My (million years) are ,0.5 My for all but one species of Metrarabdotos and about 1 My for Stylopoma. Most species had very narrow geographic ranges. Species’ durations are positively correlated with geographic range, but several species persisted within small regions for millions of years so that their narrow distributions are probably real. • Phylogenies: phylogenies rooted to an outgroup were stratigraphically upside down by as much as 16 My. Phylogenies rooted to the oldest fossils of each genus were stratigraphically more consistent but still included reversals of 7–8 My. Phylogenies constrained by stratigraphic information gave the best correlations between morphologic, genetic and cladistic distances for Stylopoma. 0169-5347/99/$ – see front matter. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S0169-5347(98)01504-3 TREE vol. 14, no. 2 February 1999 PERSPECTIVES Fig. 1. Four phylogenies for Metrarabdotos12. (a) Cladogram rooted on living outgroup (M. costifer). The tree is stratigraphically upside down, with the two oldest species, M. micropora and Metrarabdotos n.sp.1 (new species 1), hypothesized to be derived from Metrarabdotos n.spp.5 or 10, although these putative ancestors first appeared 6–16 million years (My) after their putative descendants became extinct. Moreover, M. pacificum and M. unguiculatum were placed near the base of the tree but originated only 2–3 million years ago (Mya). (b) Unmodified cladogram rooted on the earliest fossil species M. micropora. New species 7 and 8 are hypothesized to give rise to the right branch of the tree that originated 7 My before they first appeared, and ghost lineages are 10 My long. (c) Modified cladogram based on the rejection of the hypothesis that either new species 7 or 8 is the ancestor of new species 2. (d) Unmodified stratophenogram in which phylogenetic hypotheses are constrained by both the overall phenetic similarity and stratigraphic position of each species. Reproduced, with permission, from Ref. 12. defined on the basis of morphology). These requirements largely limit studies to marine shelly invertebrates. Likewise, genetic support for morphospecies is necessary to have confidence in their equivalence to recent biological species12,14. Genetic calibration effectively limits studies to the past 25 million years (Neogene and Quaternary), when most modern clades originated. To resolve biogeographic and stratigraphic ranges with confidence, the density and distribution of sampling must be sufficient12,13,15. These sampling requirements also limit studies to shelly clades that are common throughout most of their history. Biogeographic resolution is TREE vol. 14, no. 2 February 1999 necessary to distinguish ecophenotypic change or biogeographic replacement from evolution16. Stratigraphic precision is required to constrain phylogenies that are routinely plagued by extreme problems of convergent evolution when species of disparate geological age are combined in cladistic analyses17. Well determined ages of first and last occurrences of species are critical because well resolved phylogenies are necessary to establish ancestor–descendant pairs of species with high confidence. Resolving these relationships depends at least as much on the quality of taxonomy and sampling as the method of phylogenetic analysis. Two bryozoan examples The importance of meeting all of these requirements as well as possible is illustrated by our studies on two genera of cheilostome bryozoans from tropical America (Box 1). First, we were able to discriminate morphospecies with high statistical confidence and to substantiate morphospecies genetically in every case for which genetic data were available. Thus, morphospecies of these bryozoans are apparently good biological species12, and the same is true for various snails14,18, corals19 and foraminifera20 when appropriately rigorous morphological analyses are used. This genetic support allows paleontologists to study 73 PERSPECTIVES Table 1. Case studies of speciation and stasis in Neogene to recent marine and brackish water environments Taxa Benthos Metrarabdotos Stylopoma Melanopsis impressa clade Melanopsis bouei clade Prunum Amalda bivalve species Porites Montastrea Plankton Globorotalia (Globoconella) Globorotalia Globorotalia (Fohsella) Number of species Number of characters Cases of stasis Duration of stasis (My)a Cases of cladogenesis Duration of cladogenesis (My) Cases of anagenesis 19 19 3 7 2 3 19 3 4 33–46 12–15 19 21 11 10 24 29 16 11 8 1 3 1 3 18 3 4 2–6 2–16 7 .1–5 11 .2 2–4 3 2–3 11 11 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 ,0.16 ,0.86 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 4 or 2? 14–18 34 eigenfunctions eigenfunctions 32 3 2 0 0.6–3.5 1.5 2 2 1 1 3 0 2 .3 1 Globorotalia tumida 2 Pterocanium 2 aMy 0.01 0.3 0.01 0.05 Refs 0 11–13 12,13 24 24 25 14 26,27 28 28 3 3 1–3? .2 0.5 0.5 31,32 33 30 1 ,1 35 2 0.5 34 2 5 million years. patterns of speciation in the fossil record with more confidence. Second, differences between closely related recent and fossil species of cheilostomes are much smaller than realized previously, and the same is true for marine invertebrates in general21. This widespread cryptic diversity suggests that morphological differences associated with speciation should be small. Confidence intervals for ages of first and last occurrences were constrained sufficiently to choose easily among alternative phylogenies of the two genera in most cases12,13. For both genera, conventional cladistic analyses rooted to an outgroup produced trees that were stratigraphically upside down (Fig. 1a) – in some cases, by as much as 16 million years (My)! Cladistic analyses rooted to the oldest fossil Metrarabdotos (Fig. 1b), rather than an outgroup, improved the stratigraphic consistency of the cladogram but still reversed the whole right branch of the tree by 6–7 My. These ‘ghost lineages’17 push back the radiation of the genus by 10 My before the fossil record of any of the species involved, even though there are other abundant fossil bryozoans known from the same interval. Rejection of this ancestry gives the tree in Fig. 1c. This tree is similar to the stratophenetic tree (Fig. 1d), in which stratigraphic position directly constrains hypothesized relations among morphologically most similar species, but with inevitably longer ghost lineages. Similarly, large stratigraphic inconsistencies emerged from cladistic analyses of Stylopoma12,13. Nevertheless, highly significant positive correlations among cladistic, morphological and genetic distances for Stylopoma strongly support the use of 74 0.03–0.3 0.073–0.275 Duration of anagenesis (My) stratigraphic information in the acceptance or rejection of phylogenetic hypotheses. In summary, results for Metrarabdotos and Stylopoma fulfill reasonably well the requirements for taxonomy, sampling and construction of phylogenies to measure the tempo of speciation, and are in excellent agreement with the theory of punctuated equilibria. Eleven of 19 species, including all the abundant species, persisted morphologically unchanged for 2–16 My (Ref. 13). The same 11 species also originated fully formed, with no evidence of morphologically intermediate morphologies. Other case studies of speciation in the marine fossil record By comparison with Metrarabdotos, one of the most widely cited cases of gradual evolution22 concerns a parallel shift in only a single morphological character, the number of pygidial ribs used to discriminate species in five genera of trilobites. All the material comes from a single volcanic inlier in southwestern Wales (UK), so it is not possible to rule out the alternative interpretation that changes in numbers of ribs were a parallel ecophenotypic response to environmental change. The same criticism16 applies to Williamson’s23 example of synchronous, punctuated morphological change in 13 lineages of freshwater gastropods. There are, however, a small number of sufficiently comprehensive and geographically extensive studies to begin to have an idea of the prevalence of punctuated speciation (Table 1). These are divided into benthos and plankton because of apparent differences in the tempo of speciation between them. Benthos There are two other studies of Neogene benthos with phylogenetic data that are important for demonstrating that it is possible to document gradual morphological evolution in fossil species. The first concerns two clades of the gastropod Melanopsis that occur throughout the progressively isolated, marine to freshwater Paratethyean basins of eastern Europe and western Asia24. The oldest species of the first lineage, M. impressa, persisted without net morphological change for 7 My, until extinction of the last remaining marine fauna. It then gave rise to two new species by anagenesis over 2 My. At the same time, however, six new species arose abruptly in the second lineage by rapid cladogenesis from a single persistent species without evidence of intermediates. In the second example, the widely distributed marginellid gastropod Prunum coniforme persisted unchanged for 11 My, both before and after it gave rise to P. christineladdae by rapid cladogenesis25. However, the transition was gradual, with clear morphological intermediates, over a period of 73 to 275 thousand years (Ky), which is only 0.6–2.5% of the duration of the ancestral species. Stasis has also been demonstrated for three species of the gastropod Amalda14, 19 species of bivalves26,27 and 12 species of reef corals28 (Table 1). Many of the coral species exhibit significant but oscillating morphological change over a few million years, but net change throughout the entire history of the species is no greater than intraspecific variation within recent species. Plankton The tempo of speciation of plankton is more variable than for benthos TREE vol. 14, no. 2 February 1999 PERSPECTIVES because of the enormous abundance and broad geographic ranges of planktonic species, and their close tracking of changing oceanographic conditions29. The great advantage of well preserved plankton, such as foraminifera and radiolarians, for studies of speciation is the unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution of sampling based on the more than one thousand deep-ocean cores from around the world made by the international Ocean Drilling Program. Temporal resolution is typically less than 10 Ky and sample sizes are limited only by the patience of the investigator. Disadvantages include ignorance of much basic biology of planktonic protists and frequently inadequate traditional morphological characters for taxonomy and systematics, as suggested by genetic20 and isotopic30 analyses, and by scanning electron microscopy20. The most detailed example is for the foraminiferan Globorotalia (Globoconella) clade from six cores in the southwest Pacific, which exhibits both anagenesis and highly punctuated speciation associated with cladogenesis at different times and parts of its range31,32 (Fig. 2). Five species replaced each other in a series of chronological shifts in morphology in the central, cooler water range of the clade between New Zealand and eastern Australia. In contrast, the peripheral subtropical population gave rise to a single new species by punctuated cladogenesis less than 10 Ky after it was isolated from the temperate populations by the migration of a thermal oceanographic front. The ancestral and descendant subtropical species coexisted for another 200 Ky before the ancestral species became extinct. When the temperate and subtropical lineages met subsequently, they maintained distinct morphologies in sympatry. A final species then arose by punctuated cladogenesis but with continued morphological divergence after speciation. These last two species coexisted for about 1.2 My before the demise of the ancestral species. Two of the four other cases for plankton (Refs 33 and 34 in Table 1) show clear cladogenesis over as little as 50 to 300 Ky, but then continued divergence after speciation for another half million years. Afterwards, both lineages exhibited morphological stasis. Globorotalia tumida might have arisen by punctuated anagenesis, but there are methodological problems and possible bias in age dating because of changes in rates of sedimentation35. Finally, overall shape of Globorotalia (Fohsella) appears to have evolved continuously, but isotopic analysis suggests punctuated cladogenesis over only 10 Ky (Ref. 30). TREE vol. 14, no. 2 February 1999 Fig. 2. Phylogeny and tempo of speciation of seven species of Neogene to recent Globorotalia (Globoconella) in the southwest temperate to subtropical Pacific31,32. There are five cases of anagenetic replacement with intermediates and two cases of punctuated cladogenesis during seven million years. Mya = million years ago. Redrawn, with permission, from Refs 31,32. The case for punctuation Overall, 29 out of 31 species of Neogene benthos for which phylogenetic data are available (Table 1) exhibited punctuated morphological change at cladogenesis that is consistent with the theory of punctuated equilibria. Cases of punctuation more than double if we include extended morphological stasis. The two exceptional cases of anagenesis in Melanopsis occurred during a progressive environmental shift from brackish to fresh water conditions isolated from the open sea. In contrast, patterns of speciation for planktonic protists are more variable, although problems of cryptic species raise doubts about some cases of anagenesis20,30. Thus, most but not all cases of speciation in the sea are punctuated. Evolutionary implications Punctuated speciation in the sea constrains the possible range of underlying evolutionary processes responsible. Role of natural selection versus random genetic change Morphological changes at speciation are small, which raises questions about the relative importance of selection or drift. We used two quantitative genetic procedures to examine morphological stasis and speciation of Metrarabdotos and Stylopoma relative to expectations of the neutral model13,36. The first is the mutation–drift equilibrium model37, which uses trait heritabilities that we calculated for quantitative characters used to discriminate morphospecies. The second approach is based on Lynch’s rate statistic D, which is the ratio of the betweenspecies to within-species phenotypic variance divided by the number of generations38. Both approaches assume that traits are polygenic with typical mutation rates for quantitative characters of between 131022 to 131024 per generation. Thus values of D within this range are compatible with random genetic change, whereas values .131022 imply directional selection and values ,131024 imply stabilizing selection. The models also assume gradualism, in that calculations are made over the entire time since divergence. Both methods gave the same results13,36. Values of D were always much less than 131024, so that we had to reject the neutral model and invoke stabilizing selection to explain stasis. In contrast, estimates of the decline in mean evolutionary rate, D, with divergence time were never as high as 131022, even for a 75 PERSPECTIVES single generation. Thus, we could not reject the neutral model for morphological divergence at speciation for these cheilostomes. Failure to reject a null model is weak evidence for anything. Nevertheless, the results strongly suggest that if directional selection is important during speciation, it must act very fast during intervals of intense ecological release caused by geographic isolation, invasion or climate change. Any of these scenarios is consistent with the theory of punctuated equilibria. The genetic analyses help clarify two important misunderstandings about punctuation and stasis. First, stasis does not imply lack of morphological evolution, but lack of net morphological change. Stabilizing selection is evolution. Second, punctuation is not about the absolute time required for a species to originate, rather it is about the time required for a species to originate relative to how long the species persists with no new morphological change before it becomes extinct. Speciation sometimes occurs extremely fast, as is the case for the more than 300 species of cichlids that evolved in Lake Victoria during the last 10 Ky (Ref. 39). But that is not inconsistent with punctuated equilibria. Evolution of life histories Small morphological changes at speciation do not necessarily imply small changes in behavior, development or life history. Subtleties of behavior are virtually impossible to study with fossils, but we can infer much about the evolution of life histories from fossilized growth rates and larval shells. Larval development commonly differs greatly between closely related species that are otherwise nearly identical in adult morphology40. For example, the sea urchin Heliocidaris tuberculata produces small eggs that develop into typical swimming and feeding larvae that spend weeks in the plankton before settlement and metamorphosis. In contrast, sympatric H. erythrogramma produces eggs 100 times larger in volume that develop into nonfeeding larvae that drift for only a few days before metamorphosis into miniature adults40. The two species also differ profoundly in cell lineages, formation of the embryonic axis and patterns of gene expression during development. The fossil record of Heliocidaris is apparently inadequate to estimate the tempo of divergence in development and speciation. Molecular genetic data suggest the two species diverged 5–8 million years ago (Ref. 40), but this is greater than the longevity of most species and is sufficient for the radiation of entire Neogene clades (Table 1). Fortunately, many 76 closely related species of marine gastropods also differ in mode of larval development, and these differences are recorded by the size and number of volutions of the larval shell (the protoconch)41. Moreover, all well studied species of shelled gastropods have only a single mode of larval development42, and there are hundreds of Pliocene (i.e. 5.3–1.8 million years ago) to recent pairs of species that differ obviously only in morphology of their protoconchs and inferred modes of development43,44. Limited morphometric and genetic data suggest that these differences in larval development arose during cladogenesis which, by analogy to the gastropods in Table 1, was probably punctuated. species with particular traits2. Metrarabdotos offers a clear example concerning colony form. Growth form of tropical American cheilostomes shifted during the Late Neogene from dominance by species with erect colonies to encrusting species49. The same trend is apparent in Metrarabdotos, but no species evolved from erect to encrusting growth within its history. Instead, encrusting growth appeared suddenly at the first appearance of M. pacificum and M. unguliculatum, the two youngest species in the clade (Fig. 1). This is not a taxonomic artifact because growth form was not a character used to discriminate species. Conclusions Timing of speciation and extinction The five great mass extinctions of the past 500 My account for only a few percent of total extinction during that time45. Extinction and speciation in between these great events were not random but concentrated in pulses of typically a million years or less that are correlated with major changes in oceanography and climate46. Neogene Caribbean reef corals had a 75% turn-over in species composition during the Late Pliocene47. Increased speciation was spread out over more than 1 My before the more concentrated burst of extinction. Shallow reef communities also changed profoundly during extinction because of increased dominance by giant, branching staghorn and elkhorn Acropora corals instead of tiny finger corals, such as Porites and Stylophora47. The Acropora species originated 1–2 My before they became abundant. Ecologists attribute their present success to rapid growth, gigantic colony size and resistance to hurricanes, but these are ‘exaptations’ (sensu Gould and Vrba)48 that originated long before under dramatically different environmental conditions than now. Turnover of corals and other Caribbean taxa occurred during intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, global cooling and astronomically driven fluctuations in sea level during the Late Pliocene46. However, it is difficult to correlate biological change with any specific climatic event, although this is what one would expect if speciation and extinction occur as threshold events as implied by punctuated equilibria, rather than by gradual change. Macroevolutionary trends If speciation were gradual, then macroevolutionary trends could result from continuous evolution within species. However, if evolution is mostly punctuated, such trends must result from differential rates of speciation and extinction of Most cases of speciation in the sea over the past 25 My show prolonged morphological stasis punctuated by geologically sudden morphological shifts at cladogenesis. Exceptions increase confidence in our ability to detect different patterns. Most speciation involves trivially small changes in morphology, although perhaps profound changes in life history and development. Fortunately, we can observe such developmental changes in fossilized larval snails. Prolonged stasis requires stabilizing selection but causes of punctuated speciation are unresolved. We cannot reject genetic drift for cheilostomes, so if directional selection is important for speciation in these animals it must act extremely fast. Pulses of speciation involving entire regional biotas require external forcing, which could be as simple as the breakdown of oceanographic barriers during climate change. Such events could provide rare windows of opportunity for geographic isolation and speciation50. Alternatively, many planktonic species might arise sympatrically or parapatrically during climate change29,32, so that geographic isolation might not always occur. Finally, granted the prevalence of punctuated equilibria, macroevolutionary trends must arise through differential rates of origination and extinction, and not by adaptive evolution within single species. All of this is compatible with traditional neodarwinian evolutionary biology, but was unexpected before the theory of punctuated equilibria. Acknowledgements Our work on Metrarabdotos and Stylopoma would have been impossible without the technical assistance of JoAnn Sanner, Amalia Herrera, Lee Weigt, Gwen Keller, Javier Jara and Yira Ventocilla. Ann Budd, Lee-Ann Hayek, Nancy Knowlton, Russ Lande and John Maynard Smith provided fruitful discussion and criticism. Jeremy Jackson is also grateful to Steve Stearns, TREE vol. 14, no. 2 February 1999 PERSPECTIVES Michi Doebeli and colleagues at the Zoology Institute of the University of Basel for their helpful skepticism and discussions during a sabbatical year at the Naturhistorisches Museum in Basel, and to Jos Van Damme for the invitation to present much of this paper as a plenary talk at the 6th Congress of the European Society for Evolutionary Biology at Arnhem. This work was supported by the Smithsonian Institution. 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