July 6, 2012
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Asia/Pacific
Volume Growth Recovery Well Expected, but More Cautious on Luxury
AlphaWise Evidence: Key Takeaways
Dealers’ Expectations of their FY12 Sales Growth
Down
Same
Cedric Shi
Inventory has moved higher, and retail pricing has
softened
48%
 Luxury less positive on volume growth and
profitability
23%
Dongfeng/GAC: Recovery well expected for J3 in FY12 –
Positive feedback on volume growth expectation and profit
margin satisfactory
Great Wall: Maintains positive volume expectations;
healthy customer traffic growth, with stable pricing.
Zhongsheng: Luxury dealers facing tougher challenge –
volume growth expectations lowered to single digits in
1H12 vs. mid-teens in 2H11 on dealer perspective, while
significant price cut in 1H12 hurting most dealers’
profitability.
kate.zhu@morganstanley.com
+852 2848 6843
bin.hui@morganstanley.com
+86 (21) 2033 6661
have become more optimistic on volume
growth outlook.
Key Stock Conclusions
Kate Zhu, CFA
Bin Hu
Up
Dealers

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
cedric.shi@morganstanley.com
+86 (21) 2033 6653
62%
62%
Global Auto & Auto related Team
North America
Adam Jonas, CFA
28%
28%
10%
11%
28%
2H11
1H12
13 brands
2H11
1H12
16 brands
+1 (212) -761-1726
Europe
Stuart Pearson, CFA
+44 20 7425-6654
Japan
Ryosuke Hoshino
+81 3 5424-5916
Note: The sum of all answers may not be equal to 100% due to rounding
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
Korea
Sangkyoo Park
+82 2 399-4846
India
Binay Singh
+91 22 2209-7819
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject
company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Valuation Comps
Company
Closing
Closing
Mkt Cap. Rating
Name
China Autos
Ccy
7/5/2012 USD (Mn)
0489.HK
Dongfeng Motor
HKD
11.18
12,422
2333.HK
Great Wall Motor
HKD
14.92
1114.HK
Brilliance
HKD
2338.HK
WeiChai Power
3808.HK
Earnings
Growth
P/E(x)
P/B(x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Yield (%)
2012e
2013e
2012e
2013e
2012e
2013e
2012e
2013e
2012e
2013e
EW
7%
11%
6.7
6.0
1.4
1.2
2.6
2.1
2.0%
2.1%
5,854
OW
22%
12%
8.9
7.9
1.9
1.6
4.0
3.2
2.8%
3.4%
6.84
4,405
UW
24%
20%
11.9
9.9
2.6
2.1
8.8
7.5
0.0%
0.0%
HKD
29.00
6,231
UW
-15%
16%
8.4
7.2
1.5
1.2
3.4
2.5
1.2%
1.4%
Sinotruk
HKD
4.26
1,517
UW
-10%
11%
10.6
9.6
0.5
0.5
6.1
5.6
2.7%
2.9%
0425.HK
Minth
HKD
8.39
1,162
OW
16%
18%
8.2
7.0
1.1
1.0
4.0
3.2
3.1%
3.7%
2238-HK
GAC *
HKD
6.34
6,455
NC
5%
21%
7.8
6.5
1.0
0.9
7.9
7.2
3.3%
4.0%
1211.HK
BYD
HKD
14.76
4,481
EW
69%
24%
12.2
9.8
1.1
1.0
6.6
5.3
1.0%
1.6%
0175.HK
GEELY *
HKD
2.77
2,632
NC
20%
18%
10.1
8.6
1.6
1.3
6.6
5.6
1.3%
1.5%
China Auto Dealers
0881.HK
Zhongsheng
HKD
9.33
2,296
OW
36%
45%
7.7
5.3
1.7
1.4
5.2
4.2
2.6%
3.8%
1728.HK
Zhengtong *
HKD
4.34
1,244
NC
62%
37%
7.3
5.3
1.1
0.9
4.9
3.8
0.6%
0.8%
E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, except for not covered (*) companies, which are from Thomson Reuters
Source: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research
2
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Table of Contents
1.
Executive Summary and Key Finds
3
2.
New Trends behind the Two Wave Channel Check
7
3
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Methodology

This survey was conducted via phone interviews among 320 car dealers operating in 30 cities across the North, South,
West and East of China during April - May, 2012. In the latest edition, we track in total 16 dealerships with DF Honda, GZ
Toyota and Kia added to our survey coverage.

For analysis purposes, we classify auto dealerships into the following groups:
Luxury autos
Audi
• BMW
• Mercedes
• Land Rover
•
Local autos
BYD
• Emgrand
• Great Wall
•
J3 autos
DF Honda (new)
• GZ Honda
• Nissan
• FAW Toyota
• GZ Toyota (new)
•
Other autos
Chevrolet
• Hyundai
• Kia (new)
• Volkswagen
•

This is the third time we have conducted the China Auto Dealer Survey. The first and second surveys were launched in
spring and autumn 2011, respectively.

The results are weighted to represent the number of dealerships for each respective brand located across the
surveyed cities.
4
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
AlphaWise Survey and Sample
Sample
•
The criteria for the respondents to qualify for the survey
include:
–
–
•
All respondents must have insights into consumer traffic,
model mix, sales volume, inventory level and price
competition that the dealership is facing.
The annual turnover size at their dealership must exceed
Rmb5 million in 2011.
Conclusions based on the total sample have a maximum
margin of error +/-4.6% at a 90% confidence level and higher
for conclusions between sub-groups.
The Debates
 How do Chinese auto dealers view their performance in 2012?
 What is the demand for autos in China in the face of macroeconomic
slowdown?
The Findings
Dealers predict stronger sales growth momentum for FY12 compared
with 2H11
 90% of the dealers expect their new car sales volume to continue to
grow in 2012, however at a slower rate than in 2011, especially for
luxury brands.
 The average growth rates of sales volume are expected to be 5%.
Luxury brands are less aggressive in 1H12 compared with 2H11
 Luxury car dealers (e.g., Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Land Rover) report
seeing decelerating customer traffic and new car sales growth in the
past quarter.
 Most luxury brands are dissatisfied with their current profit margin,
except BMW.
What Gives Us Confidence
 We surveyed a sample of 320 auto dealers via phone interviews across
30 cities across the North, South, West and East of China during AprilMay 2012.
 The maximum margin of error for conclusions based on the total sample
is +/-4.6% at a 90% confidence level and higher for conclusions
between sub-groups.
5
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Executive Summary and Findings
AlphaWise Evidence: Key Takeaways
Industry overview:
•Auto dealers’ sentiment improved in 1H12, compared with the 2H11 survey. The Auto Dealers’ Confidence Score increases by
12 points to 62 among 13 dealerships (or by 11 points to 61 among 16 dealerships) in 1H12, driven primarily by stronger sales growth
momentum. 62% of the total respondents indicated that they expect their sales to increase year-on-year, up 14% compared with the 2H11
survey.
•Other observations:
• Overstocking remains, but dealers are less concerned: A similar proportion of dealers as in the last survey reported having
increased inventory (57% in 1H12 versus 60% in 2H11), with the average days on hand (DOH) among all dealerships reported at
46 days in 1H12. However, a higher percentage of the dealers (57% in 1H12 versus 48% in 2H11) feel their current inventory level
is optimal.
• Price cuts will continue, but dealers see easing consumer price sensitivity: While almost all respondents offer at least the same
level of discounts to their customers as in the past three months, fewer say consumers are more price sensitive than normal, down
25% to 61%.
• Recovering profit margins: Around half of the respondents indicated that they are satisfied with their current profitability, up 30%
compared with the 2H11 survey.
Competitive landscape:
Compared to the 2H11 survey, luxury autos dealers are less aggressive in the current survey, citing:
• Decelerating customer traffic growth: BMW dealers see customer traffic growth rates decreasing
from 22 % to 6%; Land Rover
dealers report decreasing customer traffic growth rates from 13% to 8%.
• Slower sales growth: Luxury autos dealers estimate single-digit growth for their 2012 sales.
• Decreasing profit margin: Except for BMW dealers, proportionally more luxury autos dealers are dissatisfied with their current
profit margins.
In
contrast, J3 and local autos dealers expect a considerable improvement in the above metrics.
6
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Table of Contents
1.
Executive Summary and Key Finds
3
2.
New Trends behind the Two Wave Channel Check
7
7
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Diffusion Index Summary
Dealer Confidence Score Trend



Three dimensions are chosen to compose the
Dealer Confidence Score for comparing how auto
dealers believe their business has been
performing in terms of 2012 FY sales
expectations, current sales, and inventory level
Diffusion
index
100
For each dimension, a diffusion index is calculated
using the following formula: 50+0.5* (% Positive
response - % negative response) * 100. Such a
diffusion index runs from 0 (all negative) to 100 (all
positive) while the mid-point or ‘neutral’ is 50.
90
The Dealer Confidence Score is an average score
across all three dimensions, i.e., Dealer
Confidence Score = (2011 FY sales expectation +
current sales + inventory) / 3.
40
80
70
60
50
30
20
10
0
1H11
2H11
1H12
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
8
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Luxury Holds Best Dealer Confidence Level, while Local Brands See Best Recovery
The Auto Dealer Confidence Score recovered by 12 points to 62 in the 1H12 survey
J3 – Honda sees significant recovery
Local – Rebound across all three brands
Diffusion
index
Diffusion
index
100
100
90
90
Total
80
DF Honda
70
60
GZ Honda
60
50
Nissan
50
Emgrand
40
FAW Toyota
40
Great Wall
80
70
30
Total
BYD
30
GZ Toyota
20
20
10
10
0
0
1H11
2H11
1H12
1H11
Luxury – Overall good, Land Rover deteriorated
2H11
1H12
Mass JV brands: Weakest among four groups
Diffusion
index
Diffusion
index
100
100
90
90
80
80
Total
70
70
Total
60
Chevrolet
Mercedes
50
Hyundai
Land Rover
40
Audi
60
BMW
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Kia
VW
0
1H11
2H11
1H12
1H11
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
2H11
1H12
9
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Summary – Key Metrics Show Positive Sales Growth but Building Up Inventory



2012 sales growth expectations: Relative to the 2H11 survey,
proportionally more respondents expect their 2012 full-year sales
to trend up. In the 1H12 survey, 62% of the total respondents
indicated that they expect their sales to increase, up 14%
compared with the 2H11 survey.
Customer traffic picks up: Around half of the auto dealers
(50%) surveyed in the latest survey have seen customer traffic
rise, versus 22% who experienced a decline, implying an
improvement in customer traffic versus the 2H11 survey.
Auto dealers sees inventory building up: 55% of the total
respondents see their inventory increasing, compared with the
same period last year, in line with 60% in 2H11. Fewer dealers
say their inventory has decreased (8% in 1H12 versus 16%
in 2H11).
Customer traffic growth – YoY change
Down
37%
Same
Dealer expectations of FY12 sales growth
Down
48%
Same
Up
62%
62%
28%
28%
10%
11%
23%
28%
2H11
1H12
2H11
1H12
13 brands
16 brands
1H12 inventory level – YoY change
Down
Up
51%
50%
27%
27%
Same
Up
60%
57%
55%
24%
36%
36%
8%
7%
27%
36%
21%
2H11
1H12
13 brands
2H11
16 brands
22%
16%
1H12
2H11
1H12
13 brands
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
2H11
1H12
16 brands
10
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
2012 Sales Growth Expectations – J3 and lOcal Brands’ Dealers Report Recovery
J3 -GZ Honda and FAW Toyota see sales rebound;
Nissan trends downward
Down
Same
Up
15%
75%
65%
40%
50%
35%
15%
15%
5%
10%
2H11
1H12
2H11
DF Honda
1H12
2H11
GZ Honda
1H12
2H11
Nissan
1H12
FAW Toyota
Same
60%
2H11
1H12
2H11
1H12
85%
2H11
Emgrand
Down
Up
1H12
Great Wall
85%
Same
Up
25%
55%
60%
90%
1H12
Mass JV Brands: Chevrolet and VW feel a decline
15%
80%
50%
25%
2H11
BYD
GZ Toyota
30%
35%
25%
35%
80%
50%
100%
20%
25%
20%
Luxury – Largely remain positive
Down
45%
80%
40%
15%
Up
45%
50%
20%
85%
30%
Same
20%
50%
65%
25%
Down
20%
45%
Local – Broad-based improvement; Emgrand dealers
are especially positive
85%
65%
75%
60%
65%
85%
45%
45%
30%
25%
10%
10%
2H11
Audi
5%
5%
10%
10%
1H12
2H11
BMW
15%
10%
5%
15%
15%
1H12
2H11
1H12
2H11
Mercedes
20%
5%
1H12
Land Rover
20%
25%
2H11
1H12
Chevrolet
30%
2H11
15%
1H12
Hyundai
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
20%
30%
2H11
Kia
5%
10%
5%
15%
1H12
2H11
1H12
VW
11
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Average FY12 Sales Growth Expectation Rose from 3% in 2H11 to 5% in 1H12
J3 – GZ Honda dealers see largest rebound
2H11
Local – Generally Improved to positive volume growth
1H12
2H11
10%
1H12
8%
6%
5%
2%
4%
3%
3%
2%
1%
-1%
-4%
-10%
-12%
DF Honda
GZ Honda
Nissan
FAW Toyota
GZ Toyota
Luxury – Lowering to single-digits
2H11
BYD
Emgrand
Great Wall
Mass JV Brands: Chevrolet becomes the only negative
volume growth expectation
1H12
2H11
1H12
23%
8%
18%
15%
15%
13%
4%
3%
3%
3%
9%
6%
-1%
2%
Audi
BMW
Mercedes
-2%
Land Rover
Chevrolet
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
Hyundai
Kia
VW
12
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Customer Traffic – Picked Up, Especially at J3 and Local Autos Dealerships…
J3 – GZ Honda and FAW Toyota saw improvements
Down
Same
5%
40%
Down
10%
70%
80%
45%
45%
65%
2H11
1H12
DF Honda
35%
25%
45%
25%
15%
5%
2H11
30%
55%
65%
75%
10%
75%
20%
5%
1H12
2H11
GZ Honda
1H12
Nissan
1H12
2H11
FAW Toyota
Same
20%
50%
1H12
2H11
1H12
2H11
BYD
GZ Toyota
1H12
Emgrand
Down
60%
75%
85%
35%
20%
2H11
Audi
5%
5%
1H12
2H11
BMW
25%
20%
1H12
2H11
50%
15%
25%
Same
Up
20%
45%
45%
55%
25%
30%
50%
10%
5%
20%
35%
30%
1H12
2H11
1H12
2H11
1H12
Land Rover
2H11
Chevrolet
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
25%
40%
10%
35%
20%
10%
Mercedes
1H12
Great Wall
60%
75%
20%
20%
40%
95%
20%
2H11
Mass JV Brands: Largely in line as the 2H11, except
VW deteriorates
Up
45%
45%
35%
25%
15%
20%
Luxury – BMW and Land Rover see decline
Down
60%
35%
30%
5%
2H11
Up
40%
25%
20%
40%
Same
15%
20%
55%
Local – Noticeable improvement across the board
Up
45%
1H12
Hyundai
2H11
Kia
30%
65%
25%
30%
1H12
2H11
1H12
VW
13
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
…but Growth Has Decelerated at Luxury Auto Dealerships
J3 – Only Nissan in J3 weakens in customer traffic
2H11
Local – Substantial improvement across the board
1H12
2H11
1H12
18%
5%
9%
4%
6%
2%
1%
0%
0.5%
-2%
-5%
DF Honda
-12%
GZ Honda
Nissan
-3%
FAW Toyota GZ Toyota
Luxury – Decelerated across the board
2H11
-9%
BYD
Emgrand
Great Wall
Mass JV Brands: Largely in line with 2H11, except VW,
which declined
1H12
2H11
1H12
22%
1%
13%
7%
-3% -3%
8%
6%
-1%
-2% 0%
3%
3%
1%
Audi
BMW
Mercedes
-7%
Land Rover
Chevrolet
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
Hyundai
Kia
VW
14
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Inventory Level – Increased, with Average DOH Reported at 46 Days

Similar proportion of dealers as in the last survey report an increase in inventory (57% in 1H12 versus 60% in 2H11), while fewer
dealers say their inventory has decreased (8% in 1H12 versus 16% in 2H11).

The average DOH among all dealerships increased from 41 days in 2H11 to 46 days in 1H12.
Average inventory days in 1H12
2H11
1H12
70
60
Ave: 46 Days
Inventory days
50
40
30
20
10
0
13 brands
16 brands
Audi
BMW
Mercedes Land Rover
BYD
Emgrand
Great Wall
DF Honda
GZ Honda
Nissan
FAW
Toyota
GZ Toyota
Chevrolet
Hyundai
Kia
VW
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
15
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Pricing and Profitability – Dealers Are Becoming Optimistic about Their Profit Margins



Price competition still tough: A majority (65%) of the total
respondents feel that the current pricing environment is more
competitive than normal, but it is lower than in 2H11 (78%).
Pricing competition vs. normal
More competitive
2%
Customers’ price sensitivity easing: 61% of the total
respondents say consumers are more price sensitive, down 25%
in the 2H11 survey.
20%
Dealers’ profit margins: Compared with the 2H11 survey,
respondents appear more optimistic about their profit margins.
Around half of the respondents indicated that they are satisfied
with their current profitability, up 30% from 2H11.
78%
2H11
4%
5%
31%
30%
65%
65%
1H12
About the same
2H11
1H12
16 brands
Dealers’ satisfaction with current profitability
Less sensitive
Dissatisified
2%
11%
Less competitive
13 brands
Customer price sensitivity
More sensitive
About normal
2%
2%
36%
33%
Neither
Satisfied
20%
50%
49%
26%
25%
25%
26%
26%
86%
64%
61%
2H11
1H12
13 brands
2H11
1H12
16 brands
54%
2H11
1H12
13 brands
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
2H11
1H12
16 brands
16
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Price Competition – Auto Dealers Are Giving More Discounts in General
J3 – Nissan weakens in pricing
Up
5%
5%
5%
Local – Stable pricing, especially for Great Wall
Same
Up
Down
5%
5%
20%
20%
5%
10%
10%
35%
35%
80%
75%
20%
DF Honda
75%
1H12
2H11
GZ Honda
1H12
2H11
Nissan
Up
5%
15%
25%
45%
55%
50%
45%
50%
45%
55%
40%
45%
1H12
2H11
45%
15%
1H12
FAW Toyota
2H11
Same
10%
10%
30%
1H12
2H11
BYD
GZ Toyota
Luxury – More price cuts, except BMW
5%
10%
100%
55%
2H11
10%
85%
60%
1H12
Down
85%
90%
2H11
5%
Same
Up
5%
10%
1H12
Great Wall
30%
15%
Same
Down
20%
20%
10%
10%
20%
15%
35%
30%
2H11
Mass JV Brands: Chevrolet sees most stable pricing
Down
20%
1H12
Emgrand
35%
55%
30%
80%
95%
80%
70%
80%
70%
50%
70%
55%
70%
80%
70%
40%
50%
55%
1H12
2H11
20%
2H11
1H12
Audi
2H11
1H12
BMW
2H11
1H12
Mercedes
2H11
1H12
Land Rover
5%
2H11
1H12
Chevrolet
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
2H11
1H12
Hyundai
2H11
Kia
1H12
VW
17
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Dealer Satisfaction – J3’s Dealers Are Turning Optimistic about Profit Margin
J3 – Turning positive, except DF Honda
Dissatisified
Neither
5%
5%
1H12
DF Honda
1H12
2H11
GZ Honda
25%
20%
30%
1H12
Nissan
2H11
30%
1H12
2H11
FAW Toyota
1H12
15%
45%
60%
Neither
25%
45%
2H11
BYD
1H12
2H11
Emgrand
Dissatisified
35%
55%
25%
50%
30%
25%
1H12
Great Wall
10%
30%
Neither
Satisfied
10%
30%
15%
25%
35%
40%
55%
25%
45%
75%
60%
1H12
Audi
2H11
1H12
BMW
1H12
Mercedes
2H11
1H12
Land Rover
2H11
1H12
Chevrolet
Source: AlphaWise; Morgan Stanley Research
2H11
10%
5%
45%
35%
2H11
55%
60%
45%
10%
35%
5%
2H11
1H12
Mass JV Brands: Kia dealers outstrip peers
15%
60%
60%
45%
5%
2H11
25%
15%
30%
95%
30%
15%
15%
40%
40%
70%
Satisfied
25%
75%
25%
20%
45%
GZ Toyota
Luxury – Less optimistic, except BMW
Dissatisified
Satisfied
55%
20%
15%
2H11
50%
40%
45%
70%
2H11
45%
Neither
10%
25%
80%
95%
30%
Dissatisified
10%
35%
85%
30%
Satisfied
25%
40%
Local – Emgrand dealers are the most satisfied
1H12
Hyundai
2H11
1H12
Kia
35%
25%
2H11
1H12
VW
18
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Morgan Stanley AlphaWiseSM conducts proprietary evidence-based investment research for Morgan Stanley Research analysts.
For further information, please contact alphawise@morganstanley.com.
Other Recent Morgan Stanley Research Based on AlphaWise
North America
July 02, 2012
Joseph Moore
Semiconductors: Distribution Survey Shows
Little Disruption Thus Far
Our AlphaWise inaugural quarterly survey of analog semiconductor distributors
found no major discontinuities from company commentary or our expectations for
the coming quarters
North America
June 28, 2012
David Gober
Best Buy Co. Inc (BBY.N): Pricing Parity
Paradise?
Our AlphaWise online pricing tracker suggests that price gaps between BBY and
AMZN have narrowed for TV’s, as Sony and Samsung began trials of unilateral
pricing policies earlier this year
Asia/Pacific
June 28, 2012
Sameer Baisiwala
Lupin Ltd. (LUPN.BO): Asia Insight - US
Pediatrician Survey for Suprax; and US OC
Guidebook - Staying OW
Based on our AlphaWise survey of US doctors, we are optimistic about the market
prospects for the new Suprax drop form (subject to FDA approval) in terms of Rx
switch from suspension form
EMEA
June 26, 2012
Edward Hill-Wood,
Yandex NV (YNDX.O): New Data, Clearer
Roadmap
Our AlphaWise survey suggests Yandex enjoys a strong position in an online
“ecosystem” nearing inflection
North America
June 20, 2012
Paul Morgan
Office REITs: MS Office Pulse: New Broker
Survey Highlights Resilience
AlphaWise survey of office brokers suggest leasing velocity is not contracting and
has a slight growth bias and demand and rent trends are most positive in tech and
energy markets, while lagging in the East
Europe
June 18, 2012
Gillian Robb
UK Food Retail: Tesco's price position better
but in line with recent history
The AlphaWise UK Food Retail price tracker still expects little improvement in
market share for Tesco in the near term
Please note that all important disclosures including personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear on the Morgan Stanley public website at
www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures.
19
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
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20
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Disclosure section (cont.)
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Coverage Universe
Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
Stock Rating Category
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
IBC
% of Rating
Category
Overweight/Buy
Equal-weight/Hold
Not-Rated/Hold
1139
1252
108
39%
42%
4%
474
478
33
43%
43%
3%
42%
38%
31%
Underweight/Sell
Total
458
2,957
15%
119
1104
11%
26%
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the
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Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.
21
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Disclosure section (cont.)
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22
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Disclosure section (cont.)
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23
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
Disclosure section (cont.)
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H7621R
24
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
Chinese Auto Dealers: AlphaWise Channel Check
July 6, 2012
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