University of California
SAN DIEGO
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Placement Packet:
2015-16 Job Market Candidates
October 2015
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
UCSD
BERKELEY  DAVIS  IRVINE  LOS ANGELES  MERCED  RIVERSIDE  SAN DIEGO  SAN FRANCISCO
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
(858) 534-1867
(858) 822-5692 FAX
SANTA BARBARA  SANTA CRUZ
9500 GILMAN DRIVE #0508
LA JOLLA, CALIFORNIA 92093-0508
October 2015
Dear Colleague,
The purpose of this letter is to introduce our 2015-16 Job Market candidates to you. Each of the
candidates listed below has either completed requirements for their PhD or is expected to do so
by the end of the current academic year. The candidates are listed in alphabetical order and I
have included a copy of each candidate’s CV. In addition to the material contained in this letter,
the Job Market Webpage has links to the personal websites of the candidates which contain
additional information. All candidates expect to be available for interviews at the AEA meetings
in Boston in January 2016.
The candidates along with their fields are:
Chen-Zion, Ayal
Primary: Industrial Organization, Labor Economics
Secondary: Microeconomic Theory
Hirshleifer, Sarojini
Primary: Development Economics
Secondary: Behavioral/Experimental Economics, Labor
Economics
Hwang, Jungbin
Primary: Econometrics
Levere, Michael
Primary: Development Economics, Public Economics
Secondary: Labor Economics
Mackay, Robert
Primary: Finance, Public Economics
Secondary: Econometrics, Labor Economics
Rezaee, Arman
Primary: Development Economics, Public Economics
Roth Tran, Brigitte
Primary: Environmental and Resource Economics, Finance
Secondary: Industrial Organization
Sanchez, Alison
Primary: Behavioral/Experimental Economics
Steiner, Christopher
Primary: Environmental and Resource Economics
Secondary: Public Economics
If you require any additional information please do not hesitate to contact me or the advisor of
the candidate in question. Advisor contact information follows and can also be found on each
candidate’s CV.
Sincerely,
Michelle While
Professor
Placement Director
miwhite@ucsd.edu
858-534-2783
University of California, San Diego
Department of Economics
Job Market Contact List 2015-16
STUDENT
ADVISOR
TELEPHONE/EMAIL
Ayal Chen-Zion
achenzio@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~achenzio
James E. Rauch
(858) 534-2405
jrauch@ucsd.edu
Sarojini Hirshleifer
shirshleifer@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~shirshle
Gordon B. Dahl
(858) 822-0644
gdahl@ucsd.edu
(858)534-2425
muralidharan@ucsd.edu
Jungbin Hwang
j6hwang@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~j6hwang
Yixiao Sun
(858) 534-4692
yisun@ucsd.edu
Michael Levere
mlevere@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~mlevere
Prashant Bharadwaj
(858) 822-6760
prbharadwaj@ucsd.edu
Karthik Muralidharan
Robert Mackay
Julie Berry Cullen
robertcmackay@gmail.com
https://sites.google.com/site/robertcmackay/home
(858) 822-2056
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
Arman Rezaee
arezaee@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~arezaee/
Eli Berman
(858) 534-2858
elib@ucsd.edu
Brigitte Roth Tran
brothtran@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~brothtra
Richard Carson
(858) 822-2262
rcarson@ucsd.edu
Alison Sanchez
alsanche@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~alsanche
James Andreoni
(858) 534-3832
andreoni@ucsd.edu
Christopher Steiner
chrispaulsteiner@outlook.com
http://www.cpsteiner.com/
Richard T. Carson
(858) 822-2262
rcarson@ucsd.edu
AYAL Y. CHEN-ZION
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Placement Officer:
Placement Assistant:
Michelle White
(858) 534-2783
CONTACT INFORMATION
miwhite@ucsd.edu
econphdadvising@ucsd.edu
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
achenzio@ucsd.edu
(818) 635-2826
Citizenship: U.S., Israel
GRADUATE EDUCATION
University of California, San Diego
PhD in Economics, 2011 - (expected) June 2016
MA in Economics, 2011 - 2013
THESIS TITLE: Economics of Information on Networks
THESIS COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES:
James E. Rauch (Chair)
UCSD Economics
jrauch@ucsd.edu
Gordon B. Dahl
UCSD Economics
gdahl@ucsd.edu
Joseph Engelberg
Rady, UCSD School of
Management
jengelberg@ucsd.edu
UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION
American University
BS in Mathematics and Economics (summa cum laude), 2008 - 2011
DESIRED RESEARCH AND TEACHING
Primary Fields: Industrial Organizations, Labor Economics
Secondary Fields: Microeconomic Theory
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
June 2015 – Sept 2015: Glassdoor, Inc. , Economic Research - Research Fellow for Labor Relations
Jan 2015 – June 2015: UCSD, Dept. of Economics - Research Assistant - Prof. Marc-Andreas Muendler
July 2013 - Dec 2014: UCSD, Dept. of Economics - Research Assistant - Prof. James Rauch
Jan 2011 - Aug 2011: American University, Dept. of Management, Research Assistant - Prof.
Alexandra Mislin
FELLOWSHIPS, GRANTS AND PRIZES
2015: Research Fellow for Labor Relations, Glassdoor, Inc.
2014: Candidate of Philosophy Fellowship, UC San Diego
Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UC San Diego
2012: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UC San Diego
Tuition Scholarship, UC San Diego
2011: Ruth Dewey Meade Prize for Outstanding Research Paper in Economics, American University
Economics Department
Phi Beta Kappa, American University
JOB MARKET PAPER
The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship: The Impact of Hiring-Cohort Connections on Job
Referral
Connections with co-workers are important for labor mobility. Co-workers that were hired at the same
time, the hiring-cohort, “go through the fire” of starting together and this paper finds that they serve as
unique sources of job referral later in life. A simple model of relationship formation from Chen-Zion and
Rauch (2015) results in a tendency for connections to persist over time. Theory implies that a worker’s
hiring-cohort is an important source of employment opportunities because of their established working
relationship. This paper is able to study how hiring-cohort co-workers influence where a displaced worker
is hired by using a Brazilian employee-employer dataset. The existence of hiring-cohort co-workers and
the quantity of co-workers have a significant positive effect on the probability of job acquisition
following unemployment. This paper adds to the literature on job referral in two ways: (1) it addresses
biases associated with inferred job referral and (2) it explores how the history and quantity of former coworkers can lead to heterogeneity in the impact of a connection. A hiring-cohort co-worker increases the
chance of going to a plant by 1.5-fold which is equivalent to increasing the number of connections at a
plant by 43.5%. This result is robust to placebo tests and controlling for selection on unobservable
characteristics (with a peers-of-peers instrument).
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
History Dependence in Networks of Close Relationships Theory and Evidence from Cohort
Attachment in Employee Entrepreneurship, with James E Rauch
We develop a model of costly network formation in which agents learn about the quality of their matches.
By retaining good connections, agents become increasingly reluctant to form matches of unknown
quality, leading their networks to be front-loaded with agents they met near the beginning of their careers.
This reluctance naturally gives rise to “cohort attachment”: new agents form links with each other
because the agents already there are reluctant to form links with them. We examine the possible influence
of membership in the same cohort on which co-workers an employee entrepreneur brings from a parent
firm to his spinoff firm. Using matched employer-employee data for Brazil during the period 1995-2001,
we find evidence that is consistent with our theory and provides a rich picture of the personnel aspect of
firm formation. After controlling for similarity between co-worker and entrepreneur characteristics and
for tenure overlap with the entrepreneur, we find that parent firm employees hired in the same first plant
and same cohort as the entrepreneur were 21 percent more likely to join him at the spinoff than other
parent employees hired in the same first plant.
A Networked Market for Information, with S Nageeb Ali and Erik Lillethun
PRIVATE SECTOR STUDIES
Who Competes for Job Seekers? Visualizing the Labor Market with Glassdoor Data, Glassdoor
Research Report, September 2015.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant, UC San Diego, Fall 2011 – Fall 2015
 Operations Research (x2), Game Theory (x2), Corporate Finance, Intermediate Econometrics,
Intermediate Microeconomics (x2), Market Imperfections & Policy (x2)
COMPUTER SKILLS
R, Python, SAS, Stata, Matlab, Tableau, SQL, LaTeX, HTML
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
INVITED PRESENTATIONS
2015: 20th Coalition Theory Network Workshop (Venice, Italy)
2014: UCSD Theory Seminar
LAST UPDATED: OCTOBER 15TH, 2015
September 30, 2015
SAROJINI R. HIRSHLEIFER
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Placement Officer:
Placement Assistant:
Michelle White
Jacqueline Tam
(858) 534-2783
(858) 822-3502
miwhite@ucsd.edu
jytam@ucsd.edu
CONTACT INFORMATION
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~shirshle/
shirshleifer@ucsd.edu
(510) 710-8867
Citzenship: U.S.
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
GRADUATE EDUCATION
University of California, San Diego
PhD in Economics (expected June 2016)
MA in Economics, 2011
THESIS TITLE: Incentives, Human Capital, and Productivity
THESIS COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES:
Gordon Dahl
(co-Chair)
UCSD Economics
(858) 822-0644
gdahl@ucsd.edu
Karthik Muralidharan
(co-Chair)
UCSD Economics
(858) 534-2425
kamurali@ucsd.edu
Craig McIntosh
UCSD School of Global
Policy and Strategy
(858) 822-1125
ctmcintosh@ucsd.edu
James Andreoni
UCSD Economics
(858) 822-1125
andreoni@ucsd.edu
UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION
University of California, Berkeley
B.A. with Highest Honors in Economics and Distinction in General Scholarship, 2004
Thesis title: “An Allocative Resource Model: Social Capital and the Economics of Identity”
Thesis advisor: George Akerlof
DESIRED RESEARCH AND TEACHING
Primary Fields: Development Economics, Field Experiments, Labor Economics
Secondary Fields: Behavioral Economics, Public Economics
GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS
GRANTS
2015: PEDL Exploratory Grant (PI with Arman Rezaee and Benjamin Kachero)
CEGA-EASST Research Grant (co-PI with Arman Rezaee, Benjamin Kachero, Craig McIntosh)
UCSD Economics Department Research Grant
September 30, 2015
2014: PDEL Pilot Research Grant (co-PI with Karthik Muralidharan)
J-PAL Post-Primary Education Grant (co-PI with Karthik Muralidharan)
PDEL Graduate Student Research Grant (PI)
UCSD Economics Department Research Grant
FELLOWSHIPS
2012: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UC San Diego
2011: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UC San Diego
2010: Graduate Research Fellowship, UC San Diego (2010-2011)
JOB MARKET PAPER
Hirshleifer, S., “Incentives for Effort or Outputs? A Field Experiment to Improve Student Performance”
One key choice in designing an incentive is whether to reward the actions and behaviors that lead to desired
outcomes (effort/inputs) or the desired outcomes themselves (outputs). I conduct a novel direct test of an
effort-based input incentive against an output incentive as well as a control in the context of randomized
experiment with school children in India. A math software curriculum is implemented in all classrooms
regardless of which activity is incentivized--it includes learning modules (the incentivized input) that are
completed throughout a unit as well as a test at the end of the unit (the incentivized output). The two
incentives are both are piecerate, have the same maximum value and are announced at the beginning of
each unit. A second non-incentivized test measures learning outcomes. Students who receive an input
incentive perform .57 standard deviations better than the control group on the outcome test, which is also
substantially and statistically significantly larger different from the impact of the output incentive. The
input incentive is also almost twice as cost-effective the output incentive. This large increase in outcomes
for students who receive the input incentive is accompanied by a similar increase in rewarded effort. The
input incentive works better for present-biased students along an incentive-compatible measure of time
preferences collected at baseline. This result has relevance to policy while informing the principal-agent
and time preference literatures.
Funding: J-PAL Post-Primary Education Fund, PDEL Pilot Research Grant, PDEL Graduate Student
Research Grant
ACADEMIC PUBLICATIONS
Hirshleifer, S., McKenzie, D., Almeida, R. & Ridao-Cano, C. “The Impact of Vocational Training for the
Unemployed: Experimental Evidence from Turkey,” forthcoming, Economic Journal
We evaluate Turkey’s vocational training programs and thus provide the first randomized experiment of
vocational training program offered to the general unemployed population in a developing country setting.
Linking participants to social security data enables us to trace the long-term trajectory of impacts on formal
employment as well as avoiding the attrition and measurement concerns that face existing studies in
developing countries. A large sample, containing both youth and older unemployed, as well as courses
offered by the private and the public sector, enables us to examine the effectiveness of such training for a
wider range of demographic characteristics and course types than existing literature. The average impact of
training on employment is positive but close to zero and statistically insignificant, which is much lower
than program officials and applicants expected. Over the first year, training had statistically significant
effects on the quality of employment and these positive impacts are stronger when training is offered by
September 30, 2015
private providers. However, administrative data show that after three years these effects have also
dissipated.
Funding: Spanish Impact Evaluation Fund (SIEF), the Gender Action Plan, the World Bank's Research
Support Budget and ISKUR
WORK IN PROGRESS
Hirshleifer, S., Rezaee, A & Kachero, B. “Increasing SME productivity in Uganda: Leveraging clusters to
train and scale”
Low productivity is a major constraint to growth in developing countries (in both agricultural and
nonagricultural sectors). Furthermore, recent micro-level evidence finds that small business owners and
farmers do not fully understand how to optimize their production processes suggesting that knowledge may
be a barrier to productivity growth. Small firms may also face challenges in reaching the scale required to
access markets. Market segmentation is a potentially important, and understudied aspect of firm growth in
developing countries. This study conducts an randomized experiment to evaluate a cluster-level
intervention in Uganda targeted to SMEs that: (i) provides technical training that is designed to increase
productivity, and (ii) brings firms together as a cluster to facilitate market segmentation.
Current funding: CEGA-EASST Research Grant, PEDL Exploratory Grant
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Teaching Assistant, UC San Diego, Fall 2010 – Spring 2015
 Intermediate Microeconomics I, II, III, and Intermediate Econometrics I
 Development Economics (Prof. Karthik Muralidharan)
 Experimental Economics (Prof. James Andreoni)
 Economics of Public Policy
Teaching Assistant, SIEF Impact Evaluation Workshop, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, September
21-25 2009
 Guided policymakers from Eastern Europe in developing rigorous impact evaluations of social
programs
RELEVANT POSITIONS HELD
Economist, Human Development Economics Team, Europe and Central Asia Division, January 2009 –
July 2010, World Bank, Washington DC
 Advised governments on active labor market policy, training, and the welfare impacts of the
economic crisis in Eastern Europe
 Conducted nationally representative household surveys and worked with National Statistical Institutes
to development new modules for existing national surveys
Field Manager, ideas42 at Harvard University, Denpasar, Indonesia, December 2007 – December 2008
 Managed data collection and field experiment on the technology adoption behavior of seaweed
farmers in rural Indonesia.
September 30, 2015
MAHP Research Coordinator, Innovations for Poverty Action, Cotonou, Benin (and New Haven, CT),
August 2006 – November 2007
 Coordinated design and launch of the randomized controlled evaluation of a joint malaria education
and microcredit program for Prof. Dean Karlan (Yale University)
Research Analyst, World Development Report 2007, Development Research Group, World Bank,
Washington, DC, August 2005 – July 2006
 Co-authored education chapter, focusing on policies to stimulate demand for education (incentives,
information, credit access)
Research Assistant, Financial Economics Team, Development Research Group, World Bank,
Washington, DC, September 2004 – July 2005
POLICY REPORTS
Bulgaria: Household Welfare during the 2010 Recession and Recovery (with team led by Emil Daniel
Tesliuc and Boyan Zahariev) World Bank, 2012
Skills, Not Just Diplomas: Managing Education for Results in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
(contributor, lead authors: Lars Sondergaard and Mamta Murthi), World Bank, 2012
The Jobs Crisis: Household and Government Responses to the Great Recession in Europe and Central
Asia, (with core team led by Mohemad Ihsan Ajwad) World Bank, 2011
World Development Report 2007: Development and the Next Generation (with team led by Emmanuel
Jimenez), World Bank, 2006.
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
INVITED PRESENTATIONS
2015: North-East Universities Development Consortium (NEUDC)
Economic Science Association (ESA)
All-California Labor Economics Conference (ACLEC) (poster)
2014: Pacific Development Conference (Pac-Dev)
Journal Referee: Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics
Oct. 14, 2015
Jungbin Hwang
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Placement Director:
Placement Assistant:
Michelle White
Jacqueline Tam
HOME ADDRESS AND TELEPHONE:
4089 Nobel Drive Unit 9,
San Diego, CA 92122
(619) 306-1850
j6hwang@ucsd.edu
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~j6hwang/
(858)-534-2783
(858)-822-3502
miwhite@ucsd.edu
jytam@ucsd.edu
OFFICE ADDRESS AND TELEPHONE:
Department of Economics
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive, 0534
La Jolla, CA 92093-0534
(858) 534-1867
EDUCATION:
University of California, San Diego
Doctor of Philosophy in Economics, 2016 (expected).
Advisor: Yixiao Sun
Seoul National University
Master of Arts in Economics, 2010
Advisor: Jae-Young Kim
Bachelor of Arts in Economics, 2008
DESIRED TEACHING AND RESEARCH:
Primary Fields: Econometrics.
Secondary Fields: Applied Econometrics, Financial Econometrics.
THESIS COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES:
Prof. Yixiao Sun (Chair)
University of California, San Diego
Economics Department
9500 Gilman Dr. #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
858-534-4692
yisun@ucsd.edu
Prof. Graham Elliot
University of California, San Diego
Economics Department
9500 Gilman Dr. #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
858-534-7040
grelliott@ucsd.edu
Prof. Andres Santos
University of California, San Diego
Economics Department
9500 Gilman Dr. #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
858-534-2407
a2santos@ucsd.edu
Oct. 14, 2015
WORKING PAPERS:
New Asymptotic Theory for Two-step Efficient GMM and Continuously-updating GMM Under
Clustered Dependence (Job Market Paper)
This paper develops new asymptotic theory for two-step GMM estimation and inference in the presence of
clustered dependence. While conventional asymptotic theory completely ignores the variability in clusterrobust GMM weighting matrix, the new asymptotic theory takes it into account, leading to more accurate
approximations. The key difference between these two types of asymptotics is whether the number of clusters
G is regarded as fixed or growing as the sample size increases. Under the new fixed-G asymptotics, the
centered two-step GMM estimator and two continuously-updating estimators have the same asymptotic
mixed normal distribution. In addition, the trinity of two-step GMM statistics, the t statistic, and the J statistic
are all asymptotically pivotal, and each can be modified to have an asymptotic standard F distribution or t
distribution. A finite sample variance correction is suggested to further improve the accuracy of the F or t
approximation. Our proposed asymptotic F and t tests are very appealing to practitioners, as test statistics are
simple modifications of the usual test statistics, and the F or t critical values are readily available from
standard statistical tables. A Monte Carlo study clearly demonstrates that our proposed tests are much more
accurate than existing tests.
Should We Go One Step Further? - An Accurate Comparison of One-step and Two-step Procedures
in a Generalized Method of Moments Framework (with Yixiao Sun, Submitted)
According to the conventional asymptotic theory, the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
estimator and test perform as least as well as the one-step estimator and test in large samples. The
conventional asymptotic theory, as elegant and convenient as it is, completely ignores the estimation
uncertainty in the weighting matrix, and as a result it may not reflect finite sample situations well. In this
paper, we employ the fixed-smoothing asymptotic theory that accounts for the estimation uncertainty, and
compare the performance of the one-step and two-step procedures in this more accurate asymptotic
framework. We show the two-step procedure outperforms the one-step procedure only when the benefit of
using the optimal weighting matrix outweighs the cost of estimating it. This qualitative message applies to
both the asymptotic variance comparison and power comparison of the associated tests. A Monte Carlo study
lends support to our asymptotic results.
Asymptotic F and t Tests in an Efficient GMM Setting (with Yixiao Sun, Submitted)
This paper considers two-step efficient GMM estimation and inference where the weighting matrix and
asymptotic variance matrix are based on the series long run variance estimator. We propose a simple and
easy-to-implement modification to the trinity of test statistics in the two-step efficient GMM setting and show
that the modified test statistics are all asymptotically F distributed under the so-called fixed-smoothing
asymptotics. The modification is multiplicative and involves the J statistic for testing over-identifying
restrictions. This leads to convenient asymptotic F tests that use standard F critical values. Simulation shows
that, in terms of both size and power, the asymptotic F tests perform as well as the nonstandard tests proposed
recently by Sun (2014b) in finite samples. But the F tests are more appealing as the critical values are readily
available from standard statistical tables. Compared to the conventional chi-square tests, the F tests are as
powerful, but are much more accurate in size.
Simple, Robust and More Accurate Approaches for Cointegration Regression
(with Yixiao Sun, Submitted)
This paper proposes new, simple, and more accurate statistical tests in a cointegrated system that allows for
endogenous regressors and serially dependent errors. The approach involves first transforming the time series
using a number of orthonormal basis functions in L²[0,1] that has energy concentrated at low frequencies and
then running an augmented regression based on the transformed data. The tests are extremely simple to
implement as they can be carried out in exactly the same way as if the transformed regression is a classical
linear normal regression. In particular, critical values are from the standard F or t distribution. The proposed
F and t tests are asymptotically valid regardless of whether the number of basis functions is held fixed or
Oct. 14, 2015
allowed to grow with the sample size. The F and t tests have more accurate size in finite samples than existing
tests such as the asymptotic chi-squared and normal tests based on the fully-modified OLS estimator of
Phillips and Hansen (1990) and the trend IV estimator of Phillips (2014) and can be made as powerful as the
latter tests.
PUBLICATION:
Extreme Risk Spillover in Financial Markets: Evidence from the Recent Financial Crisis
Seoul Journal of Economics 28 (No. 2 2015): 171-198 (with Jae-Young Kim)
CONFERENCES AND PRESENTATIONS:
Aug 2015
11th World Congress of the Econometric Society, Montréal, Canada.
Nov 2014, 2013 Econometrics Lunch Seminar, UCSD.
Aug 2010
KEA International Conference, Seoul.
HONORS, SCHOLARSHIPS, AND FELLOWSHIPS:
Graduate Student Research Fellowship, UCSD, 2013-2015.
Department Travel Grant, UCSD, 2015.
CPhil Fellowship, UCSD, 2014-2015.
Summer Graduate Student Research Fellowship, Department of Economics, UCSD, 2011-2012.
Brain Korea 21 Research Scholarships, 2008- 2010.
Scholarship for the Superior Scorer in Entrance Exam of Seoul National Univ. Graduate School, Fall 2008.
Summa cum Laude, Seoul National University, 2008.
Grand Prize, Annual Economics Paper Contest sponsored by Maeil Daily Business Newspaper, 2008.
“Pricing Weather Derivatives in Korea using Monte Carlo Simulation”
Third Prize, Bank of Korea’s National Monetary Policy Competition for College Students, 2005.
Second Prize, Bank of Korea’s National Monetary Policy Competition for College Students in Seoul, 2005.
Merit-based Scholarship, Seoul National University, 2003-2008.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE:
University of California, San Diego
Teaching Assistant: Econometrics (graduate and undergraduate), Microeconomics (undergraduate),
Macroeconomics (undergraduate)
Seoul National University
Teaching Assistant: Econometrics (graduate and undergraduate).
LANGUAGES AND COMPUTER SKILLS:
Languages: Korean (native), English (fluent)
Computer Skills: Matlab, Stata, R
MICHAEL LEVERE
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Placement Officer:
Placement Assistant:
Michelle White
TBD
(858) 534-2783
(858) 534-1867
CONTACT INFORMATION
miwhite@ucsd.edu
econphdadvising@ucsd.edu
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
mlevere@ucsd.edu
3811 8th Ave.
San Diego, CA 92103
(914) 522-8020
http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~mlevere/
Citizenship: U.S.
GRADUATE EDUCATION
University of California, San Diego
PhD in Economics (Expected Completion June 2016)
MA in Economics, 2013
THESIS TITLE: Essays on Early Childhood and Adolescence
THESIS COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES:
Prashant Bharadwaj (Chair)
UCSD Economics
9500 Gilman Dr., #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
(858) 822-6760
prbharadwaj@ucsd.edu
Julie Cullen
UCSD Economics
9500 Gilman Dr., #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
(858) 822-2056
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
Gordon Dahl
UCSD Economics
9500 Gilman Dr., #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
(858) 822-0644
gdahl@ucsd.edu
Kate Antonovics
UCSD Economics
9500 Gilman Dr., #0519
La Jolla, CA 92093-0519
(858) 534-2973
kantonov@ucsd.edu
UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION
Pomona College
B.A. in Mathematical Economics, 2008
DESIRED RESEARCH AND TEACHING
Primary Fields: Public Economics, Applied Microeconomics
Secondary Fields: Development Economics, Labor Economics
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Summer 2015: Instructor, Principles of Microeconomics
2011-Present: Undergraduate Teaching Assistant, Principles of Microeconomics (4x), Microeconomics A,
Microeconomics B (2x), Macroeconomics A
Winter 2013: Graduate Teaching Assistant, Macroeconomic Theory (PhD level)
MICHAEL LEVERE
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
RELEVANT POSITIONS HELD
2014-2015: Gratuitous Service Agreement, Social Security Administration
2013-2015: Short Term Consultant, World Bank
2014: Group Facilitator, Berkeley-IDB Collaborative
2013-2014: Research Assistant, Gordon McCord
2009-2011: Research Assistant, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
HONORS, SCHOLARSHIPS, AND FELLOWSHIPS
2015: Summer Graduate Teaching Scholar, UCSD
2014: Center for the Integration of Research, Teaching, and Learning (CIRTL) Associate
2014: CPhil Fellowship, UCSD
2013: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UCSD
2012: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UCSD
2008: Distinction for Senior Exercise in Economics, Pomona College
JOB MARKET PAPER
“The Labor Market Consequences of Receiving Disability Benefits During Childhood”
Many studies show positive long-term effects of government benefit programs on children growing up in
poverty, but there has been little study of similar efforts to target resources to children even further
disadvantaged by having a disability. It is ambiguous if such efforts would improve labor market
outcomes by helping individuals treat their disabilities in youth or harm labor market outcomes by
designating children as disabled which may reduce investment in human capital. In this paper, I estimate
the long-term effects on labor market earnings of gaining eligibility for Supplemental Security Income
(SSI) disability benefits during childhood. In response to the Supreme Court decision Sullivan v. Zebley,
the Social Security Administration instituted new, less stringent disability criteria that disproportionately
affected child applicants with mental disorders relative to those with physical disorders. The policy
change also occurred earlier in some people's lives than others. Using confidential administrative data
from SSA, I show that for individuals with a mental disorder, each additional year of exposure to eased
standards during childhood leads to 0.3 years longer SSI receipt. The additional benefit receipt leads to
lower cumulative labor market earnings through age 30 that are more negative for cohorts with a longer
duration of exposure. Taken at face value, my findings suggest that to the extent that the children's SSI
program needs justification, it must be for a reason besides the hope that providing resources to children
with special needs helps them achieve labor market success as adults.
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
“The Role of Information and Cash Transfers on Early Childhood Development: Evidence from
Nepal,” with Gayatri Acharya and Prashant Bharadwaj
One of the major issues facing early childhood health is that of malnutrition and while substantial
progress has been made in combating malnutrition at a global level, chronic maternal and child
malnutrition remains a serious problem in parts of the developing world. In this paper, using a
randomized control trial design in Nepal, we evaluate a program that provided information on best
practices regarding child care and cash to families in extremely poor areas with pregnant mothers and/or
children below the age of 2. We find significant and sizable impacts of the information plus cash
MICHAEL LEVERE
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
intervention on maternal knowledge, behavior, child development, and nutrition. The size of these
impacts along some measures of knowledge and development are significantly different from the
information only intervention group suggesting a potential role for unconditional cash transfers along
with information to tackle the problem of malnutrition.
“Who Chooses to Apply for SSI Benefits?”
One aspect of disability insurance programs that has been largely unstudied is the application process,
such as who is likely to apply for benefits and the impacts of applying. Following the Zebley decision,
issued in 1990, SSA was required to notify any individual who had been denied from childhood disability
benefits for medical reasons since January 1, 1980 that his application had been considered under obsolete
standards and that he could reapply. Using this date as an exogenous discontinuity, I show that those who
received the letter were almost three times as likely to reapply for SSI benefits, though were not much
more likely to be successful. I thus explore who is likely to reapply, based on observable characteristics
of individuals and their geographic region. Counties with more children receiving SSI prior to 1990
experience higher rates of reapplication, consistent with SSI applications being stigmatized. Additionally,
I estimate the causal impacts of applying for benefits, albeit with little precision. There is suggestive
evidence that parents of individuals who received the mailing decrease their earnings, which would match
the incentive to have low enough income to meet the means test associated with SSI benefits.
OTHER WORK
“The High Line Park and Timing of Capitalization of Public Goods”
I estimate the impact of opening the High Line Park in New York City on house prices in the surrounding
areas. The High Line is a park that opened in June 2009 on the west side of Manhattan near the Hudson
River, and draws about 4 million visitors annually. I use proximity to the park to compare home values
over time in areas immediately surrounding the park to areas slightly farther away. Home values within
one-third of a mile of the park increased 10% immediately following its opening. This was not simply an
overall increase in valuation of parks, or of real estate near the west side of Manhattan, but was directly
due to the new public good, the park, itself. The increases in home valuations led to property taxes
collected by the city in 2010 alone to nearly surpass the cost of constructing the park itself, suggesting
that the benefits of the park far outweighed the costs. New businesses also opened in the surrounding
areas in response to the opening of the park, implying that only measuring property values underestimates
the broader effects on the economy.
“Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Losses”, Management Science, 2009, with Gary Smith
and Robert Kurtzman (Undergraduate Publication)
We find that experienced poker players typically change their style of play after winning or losing a big
pot – most notably, playing less cautiously after a big loss, evidently hoping for lucky cards that will
erase their loss. This finding is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky's break-even hypothesis and
suggests that when investors incur a large loss, it might be time to take a vacation or be monitored
closely.
INVITED PRESENTATIONS
2015: Williams College
2015: World Bank
2015: Southern Economics Association Conference (Graduate Student Award Session)
Current as of October 15, 15
MICHAEL LEVERE
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
2015: All California Labor Economics Conference (Poster)
2015: Social Security Administration
Current as of October 15, 15
Robert C. MacKay
Contact Information:
Email:
mackayr@gao.gov
robertcmackay@gmail.com
Phone: (801) 647-7755
Mail: U.S. Government Accountability Office
Strategic Issues
441 G Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20548
Education:
Ph.D. Economics Program, University of California, San Diego
Expected Completion: 2016
Thesis Title: “Essays in Public Economics and Local Public Finance”
Primary Fields: Public Economics, Finance
Secondary Fields: Applied Econometrics, Labor
Thesis Committee and References:
Julie Cullen (Chair)
Department of Economics
9500 Gilman Drive, #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
(858) 822-2056
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
Roger Gordon
Department of Economics
9500 Gilman Drive, #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
(858) 534-4828
rogordon@ucsd.edu
Gordon Dahl
Department of Economics
9500 Gilman Drive, #0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
(858) 822-0644
gdahl@ucsd.edu
Master of Statistics, Econometrics, University of Utah, 2006
Bachelor of Arts, Economics, Brigham Young University, 2002
Relevant Experience:
Strategic Issues, U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2012-present
• Public Finance Economist
• Analyze tax policy and tax administration issues for Congress and for the public
• Interpret public finance literature and collaborate with multi-disciplinary teams
• Develop researchable questions and methodologies to evaluate taxation initiatives
Jon M. Huntsman School of Business, Utah State University, 2011-2012
• Visiting Professor – taught courses through the Economics and Finance Department
• APEC/ECN 7310 Econometrics I – review of probability and statistics, Classical linear regression
model, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, finite and asymptotic sample properties,
inference, prediction, and nonlinear optimization
• APEC/ECN 7320 Econometrics II – nonspherical disturbances, panel data, simultaneous equations,
time series and distributed lag models, and limited and qualitative dependent variable models
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Department of the Treasury, summer 2011
• Graduate Student Intern within the Credit Risk Analysis Division
• Using credit bureau data, analyzed the effects of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer
Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) on the post-bankruptcy experience, including credit options and
the liquidation of assets after filing chapters 7 or 13
• Using the Mortgage Metrics database, analyzed the impact of mortgage modification on loan
performance and mortgage modification as a principal-agent problem where lenders and mortgage
servicers have misaligned incentives
Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, 2006-2011
• Teacher’s Assistant for econometrics, microeconomics, macroeconomics, corporate finance
and accounting courses
Charles River Associates (CRA), 2002-2006
• Research Analyst/Research Associate in Competition Practice
• Industries researched include: healthcare, agriculture, software and networking
• Analyzed data through model building, programming, and regression analysis
• Estimated lost profits and damages in antitrust and intellectual property disputes
Intermountain Healthcare, 2006
• Graduate Intern and Fellow of the Institute for Health Care Delivery Research
• Modeled and analyzed patient care costs for new treatment program for depression
Brigham Young University, 1999-2002
• Teacher’s Assistant for marketing and economics courses
Publication:
MacKay, Robert C., 2014. “Implicit Debt Capitalization in Local Housing Prices: An Example of Unfunded
Pension Liabilities.” National Tax Journal 67(1), 77-112.
GAO Acknowledgements:
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2015. Small Businesses: IRS Considers Compliance Burden in Tax
Administration, but Needs a Plan to Evaluate Its Payment Card Information Pilot. GAO-15-754T.
USGAO, Washington, DC.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2015. Small Businesses: IRS Considers Taxpayer Burden in Tax
Administration, but Needs a Plan to Evaluate the Use of Payment Card Information for Compliance
Efforts. GAO-15-513. USGAO, Washington, DC.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2014. Tax Policy: Economic Benefits of Income Exclusion for U.S.
Citizens Working Abroad Are Uncertain. GAO-14-387. USGAO, Washington, DC.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2013. Corporate Income Tax: Effective Tax Rates Can Differ
Significantly from the Statutory Rate. GAO-13-520. USGAO, Washington, DC.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2012. Tax Gap: IRS Could Significantly Increase Revenues by
Better Targeting Enforcement Resources. GAO-13-151. USGAO, Washington, DC.
Working Paper:
“The Impact of Fiscal Stress on Local Government Structure”
I analyze the effect of fiscal stress on local government structure. In 1994, sudden investment losses
of nearly $1.7 billion led to Orange County’s default on debt obligations and bankruptcy. This event
study provides a descriptive analysis of one of the most extreme fiscal crises in recent decades by
comparing county financial values before and after the investment losses. I find the investment losses
led to Orange County total revenue falling by 4 percent, total cash and securities by 28 percent, total
debt by 11 percent, and total expenditure by 16 percent relative to other California counties.
Work-in-Progress:
“Identifying Determinants of Unfunded Pension Liabilities”
I use municipal financial data combined with the demographic characteristics of municipalities to
determine influential factors impacting the level of unfunded pension liabilities. I examine how
political party affiliation and local government political activism affect a community’s willingness to
borrow from the public employees’ retirement system while controlling for the municipality’s
financial condition.
Additional Interests and Skills:
• Reviewer activity: National Tax Journal
• Passed the CFA Level I Exam, December 2009
• Proficient in SAS, Stata, Matlab, and Microsoft Office
• Rotarian Paul Harris Fellow
• Member of Phi Kappa Phi
• Fluent in Spanish
• Master Scuba Diver
• Eagle Scout
Arman Rezaee
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Placement Officer:
Placement Assistant:
Michelle White
Jacqueline Tam
(858) 534-2783
(858) 822-3502
miwhite@ucsd.edu
jytam@ucsd.edu
OFFICE ADDRESS AND TELEPHONE:
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
arezaee@ucsd.edu
DATE OF BIRTH: March 26, 1985
SEX: M
CITIZENSHIP: USA
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES:
Bachelor of Arts, University of California, Berkeley, with honors, 2007. Major: Rhetoric. Thesis: “The
Language Surrounding Propositions 209 & 54 in California.”
MASTERS STUDIES:
Master in Public Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2009. Thesis:
“Developing a New Merit-Based Scholarship Program: Understanding Student Incentives in Order to
Target Post-Enrollment Outcomes for Community College Students.”
GRADUATE STUDIES:
PhD in economics, University of California, San Diego
EXPECTED COMPLETION DATE: June 2016
THESIS TITLE: Improving governance in fragile states through transparency: evidence from field and
natural experiments
THESIS COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES:
Eli Berman (chair)
UCSD economics
(858) 534-2858
elib@ucsd.edu
Michael Callen
Harvard Kennedy School
(617) 495-9965
Michael_Callen@hks.harvard.edu
Julie Cullen
UCSD economics
(858) 822-2056
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
Clark Gibson
UCSD political science
(858) 822-5140
ccgibson@ucsd.edu
Edward Miguel
UC Berkeley economics
(510) 642-4361
emiguel@berkeley.edu
Karthik Muralidharan
UCSD economics
(858) 534-2425
kamurali@ucsd.edu
DESIRED TEACHING AND RESEARCH:
Primary Fields: Development economics, public economics
Secondary Fields: Political economy, field experiments, comparative politics, quantitative methods
TEACHING EXPERIENCE:
2010-2011: TA, Intermediate Microeconomics, the Economics of Immigration
Arman Rezaee
2008-2009: TA, Economics Analysis of Public Policy, Markets and Market Failures advanced section
(MPP courses at the John F. Kennedy School of Government)
RELEVANT POSITIONS HELD:
2012-present: RA, Eli Berman
2011-2014: RA, Karthik Muralidharan
2013: Consultant, World Bank
2009-2010: RA, Edward Miguel
2009-2010: RA, Eric Schickler
2009: RA, Erzo Luttmer
HONORS AND GRANTS:
2015: Exploratory grant from Private Enterprise Development for Low-Income Countries (PEDL) (Co-PI
with Sarojini Hirshleifer and Benjamin Kachero)
2015: 2015-16 Herb York Global Security Fellowship, UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
2015: Clive Granger Research Fellowship, UCSD
2015: Research grant from the East Africa Social Science Translation (EASST) Secretariat acting on behalf
of the Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA) (Co-PI with Sarojini Hirshleifer and Benjamin Kachero)
2015: Travel grant, J-PAL Governance Initiative
2014: Graduate Student Association travel grant, UCSD
2014: Exploratory grant from Private Enterprise Development for Low-Income Countries (PEDL) (Co-PI
with Ali Hasanain)
2014: Adoption grant from Agricultural Technology and Adoption Initiative (ATAI) (With Eli Berman and
Michael Callen; led the design, implementation, analysis, and reporting)
2013: Pilot grant from Agricultural Technology and Adoption Initiative (ATAI) (With Eli Berman and
Michael Callen; led the design, implementation, analysis, and reporting)
2013: Department travel award, UCSD
2013: Visiting graduate researcher, Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), UC Berkeley
2012: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UCSD
2011: Summer Graduate Research Fellowship, UCSD
2010: Tuition Scholarship, UCSD
2008: Calhoun Summer Fellowship, John F. Kennedy School of Government
2007-2009: Public Policy and International Affairs (PPIA) Fellowship, John F. Kennedy School of
Government
2007: Phi Beta Kappa, UC Berkeley
JOB MARKET PAPER:
“Crowd-sourcing government accountability: Experimental evidence from Pakistan” (Joint with Ali
Hasanain and Yasir Khan)
Many government accountability failures such as corruption, leakage, and shirking are rooted in asymmetric
information between citizen principals and government agents. Monitoring can relieve asymmetric
information, but doing so is particularly costly in rural development settings. We developed and
implemented a novel cellular-based information clearinghouse, like yelp.com, to overcome asymmetric
information about government agent performance in rural Punjab, Pakistan. The clearinghouse measures,
aggregates, and disseminates to farmers the success rate of government veterinarians in inseminating
livestock, an objective measure of veterinarian effort. We evaluate this clearinghouse using a randomized
control trial. We find that farmers treated with information on local government veterinarians’ AI success
rates have a 27 percent higher AI success rate than controls when they subsequently return for government
AI, which is entirely due to increased veterinarian effort for the treated. In addition, those treated with
government veterinarian information are 33 percent more likely to return to a government veterinarian for
Arman Rezaee
AI rather than to seek a private provider. These results suggest large, positive social welfare impacts.
Combined with the fact that our crowdsourcing technology is cost-effective, self-sustaining, and scalable,
they hold out hope for improved government accountability as cellular technology improves and become
cheaper.
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS:
“Choosing Ungoverned Space: Pakistan's Frontier Crimes Regulation” (Joint with Jacob Shapiro, Michael
Callen, Saad Gulzar, and Yasir Khan)
Why do substantial swathes of territory within the boundaries of administratively competent states remain
ungoverned for long periods of time? We explore this question in the context of a unique set of legal
institutions in Pakistan that clearly demarcate spaces that are to be left ungoverned. During colonial rule, the
British divided Pakistan into two distinct regions. The first was the Raj, where the British built modern
political and bureaucratic institutions. In the second region, the British put a small number of political
agents in charge of tribal areas and codified pre-colonial institutions in the Frontier Crimes Regulation
(FCR). Legal decisions were left to customary law carried out by local tribal councils, or Jirgas. Though the
area under FCR has steadily decreased, FCR is still in place in the tribal areas of Pakistan today. Pakistan
therefore offers a prime case in why governments leave certain territory ungoverned. Using primary legal
documents we create a dataset of when and where FCR applied in Pakistan between 1901 and 2012 at the
sub-district level. We then exploit the differential impact of the Green Revolution on potential land revenue
at the sub-district level to empirically test a simple model in which states extend governance to areas where
the economic benefits of developing full institutions through taxation and resource extraction outweigh the
costs of doing so. We find that sub districts that would see a disproportionate increase in potential land
revenue as a result of the Green Revolution were disproportionately more likely to have FCR removed
following the advent of the Green Revolution.
---------"Increasing SME productivity in Uganda: Leveraging clusters to train and scale" (Joint with Sarojini
Hirshleifer and Benjamin Kachero)
Low productivity is a major constraint to growth in developing countries (in both agricultural and
nonagricultural sectors). Furthermore, recent micro-level evidence finds that small business owners and
farmers do not fully understand how to optimize their production processes suggesting that knowledge may
be a barrier to productivity growth. Small firms may also face challenges in reaching the scale required to
access markets. Thus, the Ugandan Investment Authority in collaboration with Makerere University has
developed a cluster-level intervention to help SMEs grow. The intervention: (i) provides technical training
that is designed to increase productivity (as well as business training) and (ii) leverages bringing firms
together as a cluster to help them reach the economies of scale needed to ship products to markets and/or
negotiate input prices. This study seeks to answer whether jointly providing technical knowledge and
assistance in reaching economies of scale can cost-effectively increase productivity growth of small and
medium enterprises.
---------“Crowd-sourced Air Pollution Monitoring in Pakistan” (Joint with Matthew Gibson)
In Pakistan, as in much of the developing world, air pollution continues unchecked at a level that is
privately optimal for firms. In many Pakistani cities annual average PM10 concentrations exceed 200
µg/m3, well above the EPA’s 24-hour standard of 150 µg/m3 (Colbeck et al. 2010). While environmental
enforcement in Pakistan is currently poor, the state has capacity that could be tapped to improve
environmental quality. Citizens could be empowered to pressure government and firms. However, anecdotal
evidence suggests that two important roadblocks stand in their way—1) a lack of information, and 2)
collective action problems. We propose to implement a cross-cutting, randomized controlled trial across
160 villages of Sheikhupera, Punjab, Pakistan, with two interventions. The first intervention will ease
Arman Rezaee
information constraints through a cell-phone-based black carbon (BC) analysis method developed by
Nexleaf Analytics. Through this very cost-effective method, citizens with a cell phone in project villages
will receive instant BC readings via SMS, three times per week, informing them about a pollutant known to
harm health (Janssen et al. 2012). The second intervention will address collective action issues by building
on a proven model of community engagement from a successful health program in Uganda (Björkman and
Svensson 2009).
---------"Integrating Isolated Communities: How Does First-Time Mobile Phone Access Affect Remote
Communities in the Philippines?" (Joint with Joshua Blumenstock, Niall Keleher, and Erin Troland)
We have secured a unique opportunity to experimentally evaluate the impact of introducing greenfield
cellular networks into several remote and hitherto-unconnected villages in the Philippines. Over the coming
year, researchers at the University of Philippines, in collaboration with Endaga, a private technology
company, will install 15 new cellular phone towers in remote barangays (villages) in the Philippines. These
"community cellular networks" (CCN) are locally owned and operated networks that provide mobile phone
connectivity to regions of the world that lack traditional mobile phone coverage. Since there are at least 30
candidate villages eligible to receive a CCN, random selection will ensure that there is a viable control
group of barangays that never get a CCN (at least in the immediate future). We aim to answer three
questions: 1) how does first-time access to mobile phone networks affect how people in remote
communities communicate with, and form connections to, individuals outside of their home community?; 2)
to what extent do these connections to the "outside world" provide community members with access to new
information, new economic opportunities, and new modes of civic engagement?; and 3) what are the net
social and economic impacts of providing first-time mobile phone network access to previously
disconnected communities?
---------“Quality Testing to Address a Market for Lemons in Pakistan” (Joint with Ali Hasanain and Yasir Khan)
Asymmetric information about quality should create a market for lemons (Akerlof 1970). We have
completed a pilot study documenting that the there is a lemons market for untreated milk in Lahore,
Pakistan, due to informal, self-employed milkmen having asymmetric information about their milk's quality.
At the same time, we piloted two technologies that allow households to measure milk quality at low costs
along two different dimensions (watering down of milk and the adding specific adulterants). We next plan
to introduce these technologies as a large-scale cross-cutting RCT. We seek to understand how sellers and
consumers react to information about seller quality in a setting where the literature suggests that the impact
of these technologies can both be beneficial (Chatterji and Toffel, 2010) and/or perverse (Espeland and
Sauder, 2007). We also seek to study specific heterogeneities in milkmen's response to relieveing
asymmetric information.
COMPLETED PAPERS:
“Personalities and Public Sector Performance: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan” (Joint with Michael
Callen, Saad Gulzar, Ali Hasanain, and Yasir Khan)
This paper provides evidence that the personality traits of policy actors matter for policy outcomes in the
context of two large-scale experiments in Punjab, Pakistan. Three results support the relevance of
personalities for policy outcomes. First, doctors with higher Big Five and Perry Public Sector Motivation
scores attend work more and falsify inspection reports less. Second, health inspectors who score higher on
these personality measures exhibit a larger treatment response to increased monitoring. Last, senior health
officials with higher Big Five scores are more likely to respond to a report of an underperforming facility by
compelling better subsequent staff attendance.
CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS:
Arman Rezaee
2015: Pacific Conference for Development Economics (PacDev), Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC)
Annual Meeting, Summer School in Development Economics (SSDEV), Barcelona Graduate School of
Economics (GSE) Summer Forum Political Institutions workshop, Berkeley Center for Economics and
Politics (BCEP) 2015 Conference (poster), 2015 North-American Economic Science Association
Conference (accepted), Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference (NEUDC) (accepted,
poster)
2014: Pacific Conference for Development Economics (PacDev), Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC)
Annual Meeting, International Growth Center (IGC) Political Economy Meeting, Lahore Economic
Development Research Seminars (LEDRS), The Conference on Digital Experimentation at MIT
(CODE@MIT), Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference (NEUDC), Symposium on
Economic Experiments in Developing Countries (SEEDEC)
2013: Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference (NEUDC)
Revised October 13, 2015
Brigitte Roth Tran
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Economics Department
Placement Director:
Placement Coordinator:
Michelle White
TBA
(858)534-2783, miwhite@ucsd.edu
(858)534-1867, econ-jobmarket@ucsd.edu
PERSONAL CONTACT INFO
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS
3697 Ruette De Ville
San Diego, CA 92130
(323) 533-9155
brothtran@gmail.com
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
GRADUATE STUDIES
University of California, San Diego
2013
2010
Ph.D. Candidate, Economics (expected completion in June 2016)
M.A., Economics
Thesis Title: “Essays on Finance and the Environment”
References:
Richard T. Carson (Chair)
UCSD Economics
(858) 534-3383
rcarson@ucsd.edu
Christopher Parsons
UCSD Rady School of Management
(858) 534-8782
caparsons@ucsd.edu
Julie Cullen
UCSD Economics
(858) 822-2056
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
Melissa Famulari
UCSD Economics
(858) 534-3878
mfamulari@ucsd.edu
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
California Institute of Technology
1999
B.S., Economics, cum laude
DESIRED TEACHING AND RESEARCH FIELDS
Primary:
Secondary:
Finance, Environmental Economics
Applied Microeconomics, Industrial Organization
HONORS, SCHOLARSHIPS, AND FELLOWSHIPS
2015
2010-2012
2008-2015
Teaching Assistant Excellence Award 2014-2015 (UCSD Economics Department)
National Science Foundation Integrative Graduate Education and Research
Training Fellowship on Global Change, Marine Ecosystems, and Society with
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
San Diego Fellowship, UC San Diego
1999-2000
1999
1999
Thomas J. Watson Fellowship – one-year independent travel grant for project
on street performers in Europe and Australia
Alan R. Sweezy Economics Prize, Caltech
Frederic W. Hinrichs, Jr., Memorial Award, Caltech (for leadership)
JOB MARKET PAPER
Blame It on the Rain: Weather Shocks and Retail Sales
Failure to properly attribute variation in retail sales to weather shocks can result in biased
demand forecasts, undue volatility in commission-based pay, suboptimal inventory
management, and misinterpretation of financial indicators. I use proprietary apparel and
sporting goods sales data at the daily by-store level for a major national brand. I combine this
with a new weather index method to estimate how retail sales respond to weather shocks. I
find that the worst 5 percent of daily weather shocks decrease sales by an average 20 percent.
These losses are permanent, with limited shifting of sales between indoor and outdoor malls
and no substitution to e-commerce. Weather increases sales variability dramatically, with
especially high effects in winter, the Northeast and Midwest regions, and outdoor malls.
Shopping behavior adjusts to differential weather norms across regions, a finding with
implications for adaptation to climate change. I measure sales responses in a flexible but
interpretable manner, utilizing the lasso method to create an index of a comprehensive set of
local weather variables. This index allows for nonlinear and heterogeneous responses to
weather shocks and predicts how favorable current weather conditions are for shopping, net of
seasonal, day of the week, holiday, brand, and store fixed effects.
WORKING PAPER
Divest, Disregard, or Double Down? (Submitted)
How should a philanthropic endowment invest in a firm whose activities run counter to the
charitable missions the endowment funds? Standard strategies involve disregarding the
objectionable nature of or divesting from such firms. However, doubling down on the
investment may be optimal if firm returns increase with activities the endowment combats. This
paper presents a novel mission hedging strategy, which increases expected utility by making
more funds available when they are needed most. This paper furthermore formalizes the
endowment’s optimization problem, identifies investment trade-offs, explores optimality
conditions of each strategy, and examines related evidence. Bad actors can provide good
opportunities to hedge mission-specific risks.
RESEARCH IN PROGRESS
Hurricanes and Stock Prices
Hurricanes resulting in major disaster declarations have become more common. In the example
of Hurricane Sandy, firms headquartered in states most affected by the hurricane experienced
persistent negative abnormal stock returns several days before the hurricane made landfall.
This paper applies event study methodology to explore market anticipation of and reactions to
hurricane events. It examines the effects of different types of climate change risk disclosures in
Securities and Exchange Commission filings on stock price reactions to a major event associated
with climate change.
Does the Private Foundation Excise Tax on Investment Returns Work?
Non-operating private foundations must pay a notched excise tax on investment returns. A
foundation qualifies for a lower tax rate on investment income for a year if in that year its
charitable spending as a fraction of average endowment value exceeds one percent of the same
year’s investment income plus the average rate of the previous five years. Neither the amount
of spending required to qualify for nor the value of this tax benefit are knowable with precision
until the end of the year, at which point spending decisions have already been made. This
papers shows that there is a significant but imprecise discontinuity of spending around the tax
incentive. A theoretical model characterizes the foundation’s optimization problem. I use the
S&P500 returns for the first 11 months of the year as an instrument for benefit of the lower tax
rate to analyze whether foundations are influenced by the excise tax to increase spending in
high return years.
PUBLICATIONS
Refereed Journal Article
“Discounting Behavior and Environmental Decisions” (with Richard T. Carson), in Journal of
Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, 2009, Vol. 2, No. 2, 112-130.
Other Media
“Why I won't let unvaccinated people around my kids”, on CNN.com, January 29, 2015,
http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/29/opinion/tran-vaccination-kids/.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
Instructor
2014
UCSD Economics Department, Financial Markets (upper division undergrad):
 Developed original course materials, including case studies and interactive
lecture components; recommended by 100% of students taking the class
Teaching Assistant
2013-2015
UCSD Economics Department
Financial Markets, Economics of the Environment, Econometrics
2013-2014
UCSD Economics Department and Center for Marine Biodiversity and
Conservation (CMBC) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)
Graduate course: Environmental Economics (accelerated section for Masters of
Advanced Studies candidates in Marine Biodiversity and Conservation)
1998
Caltech Economics Department: Environmental Economics
WORK EXPERIENCE
2009
2007-2008
Summer Graduate Student Research Grant, UC San Diego Economics
Department with Mark Jacobsen
David and Lucile Packard Foundation – Consultant (Los Altos, CA)
2005-2007
2004-2005
2001-2004
2000-2001
David and Lucile Packard Foundation – Legal and Investment Associate (Los
Altos, CA)
Analysis Group – Analyst (Menlo Park, CA)
The Capital Group Companies – “The Associates Program” (TAP) Associate
(rotational program management trainee) (Los Angeles, Brea, and San
Francisco, CA). Program included coursework in accounting, corporate finance,
and investments.
Undergraduate Admissions, California Institute of Technology – Admissions
Counselor (Pasadena, CA)
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Professional Memberships
 American Economic Association
 American Finance Association
 Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
 Scripps Institution of Oceanography Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation
 Society for Financial Studies
 UCSD Center for Environmental Economics
Conference participation
 Conference for Sustainability IGERTs 3 (C4SI3) at Portland State University in Portland, OR,
September 26-29, 2013.
 California Workshop on Environmental and Resource Economics at UC Santa Barbara,
September 13, 2013.
 Water Issues in Climate Change at University of California, San Diego, April 4, 2013.
 Summer School in Environmental and Energy Economics at UC Berkeley, August 15-19, 2011.
SERVICE
2014-2015
2009-2010
2007-2008
2007
2006-2007
1997-1999
Women in Economics Small Group Leader
UCSD Economics Department Graduate Student Association Representative
Volunteer college admissions advisor at East Palo Alto High School
College Summit volunteer (advised underserved Oakland high school students)
David and Lucile Packard Foundation Program Operations Committee Member
Caltech: Undergraduate Admissions Committee Representative, Board of
Control (Secretary and Representative at Large, handled Honor Code violations)
ALISON L. SANCHEZ
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Placement Officer:
Placement Assistant:
Julie Cullen
Brittany Bender & Suzi Harlow
CONTACT INFORMATION
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
(858) 822-2056
(858) 822-3502
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
econphdadvising@ucsd.edu
Email : alsanche@ucsd.edu
Website: www.econweb.ucsd.edu/~alsanche
CITIZENSHIP: USA
GRADUATE STUDIES
Ph.D., Economics, University of California, San Diego (Expected June 2015)
THESIS COMMITTEE AND REFERENCES:
James Andreoni
Economics
UCSD
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093
Mailcode : 0508
(858) 534-3832
andreoni@ucsd.edu
Vincent Crawford
Economics &
Rady School of Management
Oxford University: All Souls College
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
(858) 534-3452
v2crawford@ucsd.edu
Todd Coleman
Jacobs School of Engineering
UCSD
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093
Mailcode: 0412
(858) 534-8207
tpcoleman@ucsd.edu
Richard Carson
Economics
UCSD
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093
Mailcode: 0508
(858) 534-3383
rcarson@ucsd.edu
UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES
B.A., Mathematics and Economics (Joint Major), Cum Laude, 2008
GRANTS, HONORS, AND AWARDS
2013
UCSD Economics Travel Grant
2009- 2012 National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship
2009-2011
UCSD Department of Economics Graduate Research Summer Scholarship
2008
Phi Beta Kappa
JOB MARKET PAPER (submitted for publication)
“Do Beliefs Justify Actions or Do Actions Justify Beliefs? An Experiment on Stated Beliefs, Revealed Beliefs, and
Social Image Manipulation”, with James Andreoni
NBER Working Paper 20649
In a simplified trust game, only if a sufficient number of one’s opponents are expected to be trustworthy is trusting them
justified. We study whether actions are justified by beliefs, as is usually assumed, or whether instead beliefs are
justified by actions. In our experiment, we elicit subjects’ “stated” beliefs, but we also we introduce a new method of
exposing their “revealed” beliefs by offering to trade the outcome of the game for a pure gamble over the same possible
outcomes. We find that subjects who show both strategic sophistication and make selfish choices also had the greatest
difference between their stated and revealed beliefs. Their stated beliefs were both self-serving, in that they justified
their selfishness, and also inaccurate. Their revealed beliefs, by contrast, were significantly more accurate and betrayed
the subjects as knowing, at some level, that their selfishness was not justifiable by their opponent’s behavior.
Key Topics: Deception, Social Image, Social Cognition, Modeling of Adversarial and Cooperative Agents
ALISON L. SANCHEZ
WORKING PAPERS
“Modeling Decision Search Processes via Inverse Optimal Stochastic Planning”
Joint work with Jacobs School of Engineering: Todd Coleman, Marcela Mendoza, Diego Mesa, and Justin Tantiongloc
This paper applies economics and engineering techniques to model human decision making. We develop the theoretical
framework for a new approach to an Optimal Stopping Problem to shed light on how individuals process information.
Previous studies have adhered to the classic “forward” Dynamic Programming paradigm. The novelty of our paper is to
solve the “Inverse” DP by observing human actions and inferring their objective function/reward function. Often, the
reward function is a more succinct description/predictor of an individual’s preferences than is the policy function. In
addition, we employ Bayesian methods to perform the inference on the objective function. This approach provides more
information about individuals and their preferences than do standard methods of estimation.
To be presented at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference, Quebec City, Canada (December 2014)
Key topics: Data Analytics, Optimal Planning, Modeling of Adversarial and Cooperative Agents, Reinforcement
Learning, Expert Learning
MOBILE APPLICATIONS
PROMETHEUS: An app designed to study human decision making.
This app is designed to be deployed on any mobile device as well as standard laptops. The real-time data Prometheus
provides is intended to help researchers have a more in-depth understanding of the dynamics of human search behavior.
Many large firms (e.g. Google, FaceBook, Amazon, Twitter, etc.) are analyzing data collected from online activities.
However, what can this “big data” really tell us about how humans make decisions? This app is designed to explore the
step-by-step process by which humans calculate their consumption decisions. For example, what type information do
consumers look for when calculating decisions, how much information do consumers search for, and how much
information is needed to overcome consumers’ current preferences? The app is fully flexible, can accommodate almost
any design and can easily pair simultaneously with neuroimaging devices such as EEG, Wearable Sensors which
monitor physiological parameters (heart rate, blood sugar, hydration levels, stress level indicators, etc.), tattoo
electronics, etc. The app can be applied to fields such as consumer decisions, healthcare decisions, Big Data analysis,
and multiple types of business analytics.
WORK IN PROGRESS
“Information Processing and Search Behavior” with Todd Coleman (Jacobs School of Engineering)
This project utilizes the Prometheus app to connect consumer search behavior with the cognitive processes behind
information acquisition, information processing and decision-making. The aim of this project is two-fold. First, we
hope to empirically validate the Inverse Optimal Planning (IOP) framework. The second is to evaluate search patterns
within a highly complex environment. We consider an environment with the following decision problem. Subjects
choose between a set of “tasks” to complete for money. Agents can sequentially investigate tasks by searching for
“clues” that reveal the nature of the task, but never exactly reveal the task itself. It is only when subjects choose to
complete the task that the task is then revealed. The hope is that the IOP framework will allow us to identify subjects’
objective functions and thus provide a window into the cognitive processes they use when calculating decisions. We
can also evaluate what types of information subjects search for and which types are influential in decision-making.
Key Topics: Technological Influence on Decision Making, Information Processing, Social Influence, Business Analytics
“Consumer Beliefs: How to Effectively Persuade Consumers” with Todd Coleman (Jacobs School of Engineering)
This project is an extension of research performed using the Prometheus app and studies how individuals form
informational biases and how these biases can be overcome. We consider an environment in which an individual has
grown a preference for one particular choice out of a set of choices. We then provide the subject with information that
the cost of this preferred option has increased. Subject data is monitored to see how subjects update their beliefs
regarding the increased cost of their preferred option. We measure the amount and what type of information it takes for
subjects to switch to another option.
Key Topics: Informational Biases, Belief Formation, Business Analytics
ALISON L. SANCHEZ
DESIRED TEACHING AND RESEARCH
Primary: Behavioral and Experimental Economics as applies to Decision Making, Marketing
Secondary: Quantitative Methods/ Data Analysis/ Analytics, Technical Innovation, Policy Evaluation
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
2012 - 2014 TA, Financial Accounting (UCSD Economics & Rady School of Management, Undergraduate)
RELEVANT EXPERIENCE
2003 – 2013 Real Estate Apprentice – “Shadowed” a licensed Realtor in San Diego. Studied all aspects of running a
Real Estate business : Sales strategy, marketing/advertising techniques, employee management, contract
negotiation, sales forecasting, market trends, etc.
PRESENTATIONS/ INVITED TALKS
Jacobs School of Engineering, Bioengineering: Neural Interaction Lab (Invited Speaker), UCSD 2014
North American Economic Science Association Meeting (Presenter), Santa Cruz 2013
Microeconomics Lunch Seminar (Presenter), UCSD 2013
Microeconomics Lunch Seminar (Presenter), UCSD 2012
REFEREE SERVICE
Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Christopher Paul Steiner
Home Address, Telephone, E-mail:
701 Burgundy Ln
Bellefonte, PA 16823
+1 (618) 363-4082
chrispaulsteiner@outlook.com
Office Address:
406 Kern Bldg
University Park, PA 16802
Website:
http://www.cpsteiner.com/
Education:
Ph.D. Economics (2015), University of California, San Diego
Thesis Title: Three Essays in Applied Microeconomics
C.Phil. Economics (2013), University of California, San Diego
M.A. Economics (2009), University of California, San Diego
B.S.L.A.S. Mathematics and Economics (2008), cum laude and with High Distinction in
Mathematics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Thesis Committee and References:
Richard Carson, chair
UC San Diego
9500 Gilman Dr, 0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
rcarson@ucsd.edu
+1 (858) 534-3383
Mark Jacbosen
UC San Diego
9500 Gilman Dr, 0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
m3jacobsen@ucsd.edu
+1 (858) 822-7767
TEACHING REFERENCE:
Julie Cullen
UC San Diego
9500 Gilman Dr, 0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
jbcullen@ucsd.edu
+1 (858) 822-2056
James Hilger
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Admin.
8901 La Jolla Shores Dr
La Jolla, CA 92037
james.hilger@noaa.gov
+1 (858) 546-7140
Melissa Famulari
UC San Diego
9500 Gilman Dr, 0508
La Jolla, CA 92093
mfamulari@ucsd.edu
+1 (858) 534-3878
Desired Teaching and Research:
Primary Field:
Environmental Economics
Secondary Field:
Public Finance, Economics of Education
Current Position:
Visiting Assistant Professor, The Pennsylvania State University (Aug. 2015-May 2016)
Teaching Experience:
Fall 2015 (Penn State):
Summer 2014 (UCSD):
2008-2015 (UCSD):
Econ 443: Economics of Law and Regulation
Econ 471: Growth and Development
Instructor of Record, Economics 1, Principles of Microeconomics
Summer Graduate Teaching Scholars Program, Including
Participation in Instructional Course (Winter 2014)
Teaching Assistant and/or Reader, Department of Economics or
Teaching Assistant, Culture, Art, and Technology Writing Program
(Different position at different times off and on.)
Christopher Paul Steiner
Previous Positions Held:
2011-2015:
Intern or STEP Student (different position for different periods),
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (La Jolla, CA)
Jan.-Feb. 2011:
Contract Statistician, Surfrider Foundation
Summer 2009:
Summer Graduate Student Researcher for Julie Cullen
Summer 2007:
Research Experience for Undergraduates in Mathematics,
Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA
Jan.-Jul. 2006:
Finance Co-op, Johnson & Johnson Vision Care, Inc., Jacksonville, FL
Service:
2015-2016:
Early 2011:
Penn State LGBTQA Safe Zone Office Participant
Representative for Economics Department, Graduate Student Association,
UCSD
Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:
Summer Graduate Teaching Scholar, 2014
Summer GSR Funding, 2009
Research in Progress:
Job Market Paper I
“Hitting Capacity: Implications for Outdoor Recreation Valuation” (with James Hilger)
Choices are often limited as the most popular alternatives reach capacity and sell out; thereafter,
selection is over less preferred choices. In the context of nonmarket goods, willingness to pay
(WTP) welfare measures provide an estimate of the value of characteristics – often calculated
through the modeling of preferences using a random utility model (RUM) framework. RUM
preference parameter estimation is based on the choice attributes and the observed choices
consumers make from a set of options. Such models are estimated under the implicit assumption
that all options are available to all consumers. If choices can “sell out,” the properly specified
choice model would drop unavailable alternatives from the set of options; however, actual
availability is almost never observed at the individual consumer level. Ignoring capacity
constraints can result in biased parameter and WTP estimates. A solution to this problem that
can be implemented using only aggregate level data is provided. We provide an empirical
application of modeling vessel choice in the recreational overnight fishing trip market in San
Diego – where particular boats are often sold out. We find the estimates for WTP for proportion
of highly migratory species fish catch on these trips increase when we account for sellouts. Since
RUM models are often used in fishery management decisions, not accounting for sellouts may
lead to an undervaluation of important fishery resources.
Job Market Paper II
“Pollution Whack-a-Mole: Ambient Acetaldehyde and the Introduction of E-10 Gasoline in the
Northeast”
This paper uses a complicated set of phase-ins and phase-outs of oxygenated motor fuel in the
Northeast to determine whether E-10 ethanol-enhanced fuel contributes to acetaldehyde air
pollution over the pre-ethanol methyl tertiary-buthyl ether (MTBE) fuel. Oil companies phased
out MTBE because of groundwater pollution concerns, and now E-10 is the standard fuel in EPA
Christopher Paul Steiner
reformulated gas areas. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I find a large percentage
increase in acetaldehyde pollution is associated with the switch from MTBE to E-10. Using EPA
carcinogenic estimation techniques, I find that the cost of this increase in acetaldehyde pollution
is around $3 million annually for the New York City Metropolitan area. This smaller cost
estimate comes from a pollution increase that – while large in percentage terms – is small in level
terms.
Education Paper
“An Analysis of the Cost of an Undergraduate Degree and the Incentives of the State, the
University, and the Student” (with Richard Carson and Melissa Famulari)
To expand undergraduate enrollments or to make decisions regarding rule changes for degrees,
administrators need information on how much expansions and contractions in each department
cost. This paper presents several methods of accounting for per-credit hour cost across
departments. Using internal data from UCSD, we find that most social sciences are relatively
cheap and engineering is relatively expensive.
This paper then simulates the university’s allocation of funding to undergraduate departments
and the student response. We find that a university with static undergraduate fund-per-student
preferences will allocate funds-per-student away from departments with large number of students
to discourage them from majoring in those departments and instead majoring in a less-filled
field. Using data from UCSD, we show that departments with large numbers of graduates are
cheaper per degree, have higher modified student-to-faculty ratios, and graduate sooner than their
colleagues in a different program at the university.
Conference Presentations:
“Pollution Whack-a-Mole: Ambient Acetaldehyde and the Introduction of E-10 Gasoline in the
Northeast,” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, July 28, 2014;
Minneapolis, MN
“Hitting Capacity: Implications for Outdoor Recreation Valuation,” Association of
Environmental and Resource Economists Meetings, June 3-5; San Diego, CA
Professional Activities:
Referee: Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics, Marine Resource Economics
Member: American Economics Association; Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
(including Land, Water, and Environmental Section); Center for the Integration of Research,
Teaching, and Learning (CIRTL) Associat
Computer Programming:
MATLAB, R, Stata
Christopher Paul Steiner
Undergraduate Publication:
with James A. Rogers, Jayson Wilbur, Susan Cole, Paul W. Bernhardt, Jaye Lynn Bupp, Morgan
J. Lennon, and Nathan Langholz. (2011). Quantifying Uncertainty in Predictions of Hepatic
Clearance. Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research, 3(4), 515-25.
Drug companies and others need formulas to scale up estimated drug-body (pharmacokinetic)
parameters, from, for instance, a rat to a human. While these formulas are heavily discussed in
the pharmacokinetic literature, few studies look to uncertainty in these estimations. This
uncertainty may lead to poor dosage decisions when transitioning to in-human studies, possibly
increasing side effects and/or eliminating drug efficacy. This study uses Bayesian statistics to
build credible intervals for human clearance on twelve drugs, and these credible intervals
demonstrate that measurement and scaling uncertainty can lead to approximate instead of actual
dosing estimates.