December 2011 HOLIDAY ISSUE #47 #"/,*/(3&'03.'03,";",)45"/ 45"#*-*5:*/"70-"5*-&&/7*30/.&/5 5IF6SHFODZPG#BOLJOH3FHVMBUPSZ3FGPSN 5IF$BOBEJBO#BOLJOH3FHVMBUPSZ.PEFM #BOLJOHJO,B[BLITUBO*TUIF$SJTJT0WFS 5IF#BTFM'SBNFXPSL8IBU%PFT*U.FBO $IBMMFOHFT'BDJOH,B[BLITUBOT#BOLJOH4ZTUFN #BTFM***$SFBUJOHB4UBCMF3FHVMBUPSZ$MJNBUF WWW.KLM.COM &%*503q4/05& Dear Readers, 5IFSFDPVMEIBSEMZCFBTVCKFDUPGNPSFSFMFWBODFUPUPEBZqTHMPCBMGJOBODJBMBOEFDPOPNJDFOWJSPONFOUUIBOUIBUPG CBOLJOHSFGPSNTQFDJGJDBMMZUIFOFFEUPPWFSIBVMUIFSFHVMBUPSZSFHJNFVOEFSXIJDICBOLTPQFSBUFXPSMEXJEF0O UIFIFFMTPGBUISFFZFBSGJOBODJBMDSJTJTBOEJOUIFUISPFTPGBFVSP[POFTPWFSFJHOEFCUDSJTJTUIFAmCham Banking Regulatory Reform ForumJONJE/PWFNCFSCSPVHIUUPHFUIFSCBOLFSTUPFYBNJOFDIBMMFOHFTBOEQPTTJCMFTPMVUJPOT GPS,B[BLITUBO 5IF/BUJPOBM#BOLPG,B[BLITUBOHVJEFECZJUTXJEFMZSFTQFDUFE(PWFSOPS(SJHPSJZ.BSDIFOLPIBTTFUJUTFMGUIFHPBMPGJODPSQPSBUJOHUIF#BTFM*** SFDPNNFOEBUJPOTNPTUSFMFWBOUUP,B[BLITUBOqTCBOLJOHTZTUFNJOUPJUTSFHVMBUPSZSFHJNF5IJTJTBOBNCJUJPVTHPBMPOFUIBUEFNPOTUSBUFTUIF TFSJPVTOFTTBOETPQIJTUJDBUJPOUZQJDBMPGUIF/BUJPOBM#BOLBOEJUT(PWFSOPS "N$IBNIBTCFFOSFRVFTUFEUPXPSLUPHFUIFSXJUIUIF/BUJPOBM#BOLBTJUNPWFTUPJODPSQPSBUF#BTFM***CZJUTUBSHFUEBUFPG+BOVBSZ5IF $IBNCFSJTQMFBTFEUPXPSLUPHFUIFSXJUIUIF#BOLVOEFSUIFAmCham Economic Policy Program XIJDIJTBDUJWFMZQVSTVJOHSFGPSNQSPKFDUTJOB OVNCFSPGBSFBTXJUIUIF(PWFSONFOUPG,B[BLITUBO 5IJTJTTVFPGInvestors’ Voice DPOUBJOTQSFTFOUBUJPOTGSPNUIF/PWFNCFS'PSVNBanking Regulatory Reform for Kazakhstan: Creating Stability in a Volatile Environment.5IF'PSVNPQFOFEXJUIBCSPBETXFFQJOHLFZOPUFTQFFDICZ(PWFSOPS.BSDIFOLPTUSFTTJOHUIFOFFEGPSSFHVMBUPSZSFGPSN GPS,B[BLITUBOqTCBOLJOHTZTUFN5IFDPOGFSFODFUIFOQSPDFFEFEXJUIBNPSOJOHTFTTJPOEFWPUFEUPUIFHMPCBMQFSTQFDUJWFBOEBOBGUFSOPPOTFTTJPO GPDVTFEPO,B[BLITUBO 5IFTQFBLFSTFBDIIBEUIFJSPXOUIFNFTTPNFDIPPTJOHUPTQFBLBCPVU#BTFM***(Basel III: Creating a Stable Regulatory ClimateBOEReforming the Basel Framework), PUIFSTBCPVUUIFDIBMMFOHFTGBDJOH,B[BLITUBOqTCBOLT(Banking in Kazakhstan: Is the Crisis Over?), TPNFUBLJOHBCSPBEQPMJDZ QFSTQFDUJWF(The Urgency of Banking Regulatory Reform), PUIFSTIPOJOHJOPOUIFDPNQMFYDIBOHFJOGPSNVMBTFOUBJMFECZUIFOFXSFHVMBUJPOT*O DPVOUFSQPJOUUPUIFDIBMMFOHFTPVUMJOFECZUIFCBOLFST$BOBEJBO"NCBTTBEPS4UFQIFO.JMMBSTQPLFBCPVUUIFDPOTFSWBUJWFTUBCMFSFHVMBUPSZSFHJNF UIBUQSPUFDUT$BOBEBqTCBOLTEVSJOHWPMBUJMFUJNFT(The Canadian Banking Regulatory Model: A Success?). /PUXJUITUBOEJOHUIFDIBMMFOHJOHUJNFTXFXJTIBMMPVSSFBEFSTBGFTUJWFBOESFTUGVMIPMJEBZTFBTPOVOUJMXFTFFZPVBHBJOJO Doris Bradbury Executive Director 5"#-&0'$0/5&/54 $PWFS"SUXPSL$FMFTUJBM(VFTUCZ.BSBU#FLFZFW */&7&3:*446& &EJUPST /PUF 8FMDPNF"EEJUJPOTUPUIF$IBNCFS .FNCFS/FXT $IBNCFS&WFOUT "N$IBN8PSLJOH(SPVQ6QEBUFT ARTICLES "N$IBN#BOLJOH3FHVMBUPSZ3FGPSN'PSVN0WFSWJFX by Jeffrey Mason............................................................ #47/2011 $IBMMFOHFT'BDJOH,B[BLITUBOT#BOLJOH4ZTUFN by Grigoriy Marchenko............................................... #BOLJOHJO,B[BLITUBO*TUIF$SJTJT0WFS by Michael Carter....................................................... 5IF$BOBEJBO#BOLJOH3FHVMBUPSZ.PEFM"4VDDFTT by Ambassador Stephen Millar.................................. 5IF6SHFODZPG#BOLJOH3FHVMBUPSZ3FGPSN by Hanz Holzhacker.................................................... 3FGPSNJOHUIF#BTFM'SBNFXPSL8IBU%PFT*U.FBOGPS 4ZTUFNJDBMMZ*NQPSUBOU'JOBODJBM*OTUJUVUJPOT by Ulf Wokurka......................................................................... #BTFM***$SFBUJOHB4UBCMF3FHVMBUPSZ$MJNBUF by Bodo Thöns 5 #0"3%0'%*3&$5034 CREDITS &9&$65*7&$0..*55&& EDITOR IN CHIEF: Doris Bradbury DESIGN & LAYOUT: Eidar Aliev Walter Daniel Kenneth Mack Paul Cohn President Treasurer Secretary Managing Partner, Partner, Ernst & Young Director, Legal Services PricewaterhouseCoopers Chadbourne & Parke PHOTOGRAPHER: Nikolai Perervin #0"3%.&.#&34 COVER ARTWORK: Marat Bekeyev Doris Bradbury CONTRIBUTORS: Michael Carter Osman Kazdal Jennifer Kane Executive Director Senior Commercial Officer AmCham US Commercial Services General Manager Coca-Cola Almaty Michael Carter Hans Holzhacker Grigoriy Marchenko Jeffrey Mason Stephen Millar Bodo Thöns Ulf Wokurka Tim Miller Mark Pothast General Director General Manager Tengizchevroil Nestle Eurasia Colette Reynolds President, Caspian Region ConocoPhillips PUBLISHER: American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan Tel.: +7 (727) 330 92 50 Fax: +7 (727) 330 92 51 6 For information about the Chamber, please email info@amcham.kz For information about Working Groups, Chamber's website, and Investors' Voice, please contact Dimash Umbetov at dimash.umbetov@amcham.kz To register for a Chamber event, please email Administrative Assistant Sonya Bessonova at info@amcham.kz To enquire about financial issues, please contact Finance Manager Rimma Kazhemyakina at rimma.kazhemyakina@amcham.kz #47/2011 $0/53*#65034 Michael Carter AmCham Board Member Michael Carter has most recently served as the CEO of Visor Capital, the leading locally-based investment bank with operations in Almaty and London. Visor Capital is actively involved in advising the Government of Kazakhstan on improvements to the investment environment for domestic and international investors. Michael Carter joined Visor Capital’s management team as Head of Research in 2007, and became CEO in October 2008. Prior to moving to Almaty, Michael worked for four years at ING Bank in Milan as Head of Italian Equities. Previously he was with UBS for six years in both Milan and London in equity research. Before entering the investment business, Michael was a Consultant at Bain & Company in Milan, and also worked for a private equity fund in the US focused on Oil service and Oil & Gas. Michael Carter holds a BA from U.C. Berkeley and an MBA from Georgetown University. Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist, ATF/Unicredit Bank KZ Hans Holzhacker is Chief Economist at ATFBank Kazakhstan, a member of UniCredit Group. He has over 20 years’ experience as an economist specializing in the economies of Central and Eastern Europe, and in setting up country-risk rating models. Prior to joining ATFBank in Almaty, Hans Holzhacker was a Vienna-based Senior Economist focused on Russia and Ukraine for Bank Austria Creditanstalt, a member of UniCredit Group. There he coordinated the New Europe Research Network and was responsible for CEE country ratings. Hans Holzhacker also served as Senior Economist covering the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine at the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC from 1999-2001, as Head of Country Risk/Research at GiroCredit Research, Investmentbank Austria, from 1993-99, and as Central European Economist at Nomura Research Institute from 1989-93. He holds a Ph.D. in Sociology and a Masters in Economics from the University of Vienna. Grigoriy Marchenko, Governor, National Bank of Kazakhstan Grigoriy Marchenko is currently serving his second term as Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. He studied economics at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and pursued graduate studies at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. He has held many senior positions in the Government of Kazakhstan, including First Deputy Prime Minister, Chairman of the National Securities Commission, and Advisor to President Nazarbayev. He has also served in the private sector as President of DB Securities in Kazakhstan and as CEO and Chairman of Halyk Bank. Grigory Marchenko is widely viewed as having played a leading role in the creation of the banking structure of Kazakhstan, which is regarded as the leader and most highly developed banking system in Central Asia. He was recalled to the National Bank as Governor in early 2009 to handle the challenges posed by global banking FULVLV8QGHUKLVZDWFK.D]DNKVWDQPDLQWDLQHGEDQNLQJDQG¿VFDOVWDELOLW\0U0DUFKHQNRZDVDZDUGHG(XURPRQH\¶V2003 Central Bank Governor of the Year, and was nominated to head the International Monetary Fund in September 2011. Stephen Millar, Canadian Ambassador to Kazakhstan Stephen Millar joined the Department of External Affairs and International Trade in 1982 after receiving a Master’s degree in Soviet and East European Studies from Carleton University in Ottawa. He served as an analyst of Soviet bloc economies in the Economic Intelligence Division until 1991, travelling often to the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. From 1996 to 1998, Mr. Millar was the assistant to Canada’s Director at EBRD in London. From 1991 to 1996 and from 1998 until 2007, he held a number of positions in the International Branch of the Department of Finance Canada, including as Chief of the International Institutions Section, where he was responsible for managing Canada’s relations with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and EBRD. Mr. Millar was a Senior Trade Commissioner at the Embassy of Canada to Russia, with concurrent accreditation to Uzbekistan and Armenia, and was appointed Canadian Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in July, 2009. Bodo Thöns, Senior Representative, Commerzbank KZ Bodo Thöns studied at Martin Luther University in Halle, Germany and at Moscow State University. He holds a PhD in economics from Moscow State University and Humboldt University Berlin. In 1990 he joined Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt am Main and has more than 20 years experience in branch management, corporate EDQNLQJDQG¿QDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDVZHOODVLQWUDGHDQGH[SRUW¿QDQFHLQ*HUPDQ\DQGDEURDG Bodo Thöns has an extensive background in a broad range of issues concerning Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia. From 1993-1998 he served as the Commerzbank Representative in Moscow and Novosibirsk. In 2004-2007 he served as the Head of Commerzbank corporate banking in the Czech and Slovak 5HSXEOLFV,Q%RGR7KRQVZDVDSSRLQWHG+HDGRIWKH&RPPHU]EDQN2I¿FHLQ$OPDW\FRYHULQJ.D]DNKVWDQ.\UJ\]VWDQ7DMLNLVWDQDQG0RQJROLD Ulf Wokurka, Managing Director, Deutsche Bank Kazakhstan Ulf Wokurka studied at Martin Luther University in 1980-81 and graduated from Moscow State Institute of International Relations in 1989. In 1990 he joined Deutsche %DQNLQ)UDQNIXUWDP0DLQ)URPWRKHZDV+HDGRIWKH5HSUHVHQWDWLYH2I¿FHVRI'HXWVFKH%DQNDQG0RUJDQ*UHQIHOO&RLQ$OPDW\)URPWR KHZRUNHGLQ'HXWVFKH%DQN¶V/RQGRQ1HZ<RUNDQG)UDQNIXUWRI¿FHV)URPWR0U:RNXUNDZRUNHGDW6WDWH+ROGLQJ6DPUXNLQ$VWDQDDQGFKDLUHGWKH KAZPOST Board of Directors. In 2007 Mr. Wokurka served on the Boards of the Kazakhstan Development Bank and Kazyna Capital Management. )URPWRKHVHUYHGDV0DQDJLQJ'LUHFWRURI0HW]OHU$VVHW0DQDJHPHQW)UDQNIXUWDQGZDVDSSRLQWHG'HXWVFKH%DQN¶V&KLHI&RXQWU\2I¿FHULQ6HSWHPEHU 2010. In April 2011 Ulf Wokurka was elected an independent director on the Halyk Bank Board of Directors. #47/2011 7 /&8.&.#&34 8&-$0.&"%%*5*0/4505)&$)".#&3 DEUTSCHE BANK TAIB KAZAK BANK OCTAPHARMA CORPORATE A CORPORATE A CORPORATE C Ulf Wokurka (Managing Director) Maruf Ahmed (Chairman) Svetlana Safarova (Head of 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH2IÀFH 36,Al Farabi Avenue %ORFN%WKÁRRU Almaty 050059 Kazakhstan 103 Furmanov Street Almaty 050000 Kazakhstan 'RVW\N$YHQXH2IÀFH Almaty 050051 Kazakhstan Telephone: 7 (727) 356 10 68 Fax: 7 (727) 356 10 64 Telephone: 7 (727) 258 70 30, 258 70 40 Fax: 7 (727) 258 70 09 Tel: 7 (727) 320 15 41 Fax: 7 (727) 320 15 42 Email: Svetlana.safarova@octapharma.com, safaris@list.ru E-mail: danara.kulbayeva@db.com Website: www.db.com E-mail: taiball@taib.kz, aigul@taib.kz Website: www.taib.kz Deutsche Bank was founded in 1870 and is a global leader among international banks. The Bank’s 80,000 employees in 72 countries serve more than 13 million clients world-wide. As a universal bank, Deutsche Bank is able to provide the whole range of KLJKTXDOLW\ ÀQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV WKURXJK LWV business divisions - Global Markets, Global Equities, Global Corporate Finance, Global Transaction Banking, Asset Management, 3ULYDWH:HDOWK0DQDJHPHQWDQG3ULYDWH Business Clients. Deutsche Bank has been active in Kazakhstan since 1993 through its 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH 2IÀFH LQ $OPDW\ 7KH ORFDO RIÀFH DGYLVHV RQ 7UDGH )LQDQFH LQFOXGLQJ ECA, and provides support to local banks and FRPSDQLHV LQ VWUXFWXULQJ ÀQDQFH VROXWLRQV Since the foundation in 1998 of a brokerdealer company – DB Securities Kazakhstan – its range of services in securities trading and investment banking has expanded. 8 TAIB Bank, a private bank based in Bahrain, was established in 1979 and is regulated by the Bahrain Monetary Agency. Listed on the Bahrain Stock Exchange since 7$,%LVRQHRIWKHUHJLRQ VÀUVWSULYDWH banks with a focus on providing complete wealth management solutions to both highnet-worth individuals and institutional investors alike. The bank's strength lies in identifying and creating unique investment opportunities and is a testament to its 25 years of investment expertise and network of six subsidiaries around the world. The Bank’s headquarters are located in TAIB Tower in the Diplomatic Area in Manama, Bahrain. This is the home to TAIB Bank, as well as to its brokerage subsidiary, TAIB Securities. TAIB Kazak Bank offers cash management services across a broad spectrum of commercial banking operations: &XUUHQWDFFRXQWV &DVKWUDQVDFWLRQV )RUHLJQH[FKDQJHWUDQVDFWLRQV 3D\PHQWV Octapharma is an independent, Swissbased company founded in 1983. The Group has since grown to include six production plants in Austria, France, Germany, Sweden DQG0H[LFR3ODVPD'RQDWLRQ&HQWHUVLQ the US and in Europe, and 37 subsidiaries DQG UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RIÀFHV :LWK RYHU employees, Octapharma currently sells in over 80 countries. The Octapharma Almaty 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH2IÀFHZDVRSHQHGLQ0DUFK 2009. Octapharma’s core business is the development, production and sale of safe and effective medicines derived from human proteins in the following areas: Haematology (coagulation disorders), Immunotherapy (immune disorders), Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine. The Octapharma Group-wide mission is the safe and optimal use of human proteins. The company meets its Mission through the use of cutting-edge, validated viral LQDFWLYDWLRQ DQG SXULÀFDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV Octapharma has implemented a strategy of continuous investment in, and enhancement of, existing products as well as ongoing projects to develop a world-class portfolio of human proteins. #47/2011 /&8.&.#&34 UNIPHARM JOHN DAVIDSON AND ASSOCIATES CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE CORPORATE C CORPORATE C NON-PROFIT Michael Galvin (General Manager) Stephen Grey (CEO) Martha Brill Olcott (Co-Director) 350 5th Avenue, Suite 6701 New York, NY 10118 -HWVWUHDP%XVLQHVV3DUN $*UHYLOOHD3ODFH Eagle Farm Brisbane QLD 4009 Australia Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Department of International Relations 95 Karasai Batyr Street Almaty 050012 Kazakhstan Telephone: 61 7 3120 0900 Fax: 61 7 3120 0999 Telephone: 1 (202) 483 33 89 Fax: E-mail: Ryan.Gunn@jda.com.au Website: www.jda.com.au E-mail: molcott@ceip.org Website: www.carnegieendowment.org John Davidson and Associates is a OHDGLQJ UHFUXLWLQJ ÀUP ZLWK KHDGTXDUWHUV in Australia. It was established in 1990 and has become an internationally recognised leader in mining, oil and gas, engineering and construction recruitment. JDA currently handles successful recruitments in 71 countries and has ongoing relationships with mining sector organisations, miners, and mining services companies worldwide. It is a ‘career broker’ for of the mining and resources sector. The JDA team of experienced consultants and account managers have a strong technical background and a reputation for timely sourcing of corporate, operational and SURMHFWVWDIIDWDOOOHYHOVLQFOXGLQJGLIÀFXOW WRÀQGDSSRLQWPHQWVDQG([HFXWLYH6HDUFK The company conducts global sourcing across its strong international network, its consultants possessing the ability to access thousands of candidates worldwide. JDA travelled to client sites across Central Asia in August and September 2011 to learn about their operations and discuss needs ÀUVWKDQG7KHÀUP·VEUDQGRIUHFUXLWPHQW consulting is a process driven by the quality of information and communication between the client, JDA, and aspiring candidates. JDA VWULYHV IRU RXWFRPHV WKDW EHQHÀW LWV FOLHQWV and advance the career of its candidates. The Carnegie Endowment for International 3HDFH LV D SULYDWH QRQSURÀW RUJDQL]DWLRQ dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States. Carnegie experts work on a range of issues, including nonproliferation, global security and terrorism, developments in Russia, Eurasia, China, and the Middle East, international economics, climate change and energy FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG WKH ULVLQJ LQÁXHQFH RI emerging powers and non-state actors. 7KH $O)DUDEL &DUQHJLH 3URJUDP RQ Central Asia is a Kazakhstan-based regional program run jointly with Al-Farabi Kazakh National University to foster an open dialogue between Kazakh, Central Asian and international academic and research organizations, and business and government structures, on a wide range of issues, from regional and global security to energy and UHJLRQDOHFRQRPLFVDQGWUDGH7KH3URJUDP will promote research and analysis between scholars from Central and South Asia, as well as the international community, to dramatically improve understanding and inform dialogue in Astana, Washington and other world capitals. Tel.: 1 (212) 594 32 60 Email: mgalvin@unipharmus.com Website: www.unipharmus.com Unipharm is a privately-owned American pharmaceutical company specializing in the marketing and development of quality over-the-counter (OTC) drugs and nutritional products. An FDA-registered company, Unipharm was established in 1992 in the United States. The company's world headquarters is located in the Empire State Building in New York City, and there are nine branch offices worldwide. The company’s brands have grown into household names and include a broad range of products for many different life stages and different customer needs. Some of the diverse consumer needs addressed by Unipharm include cardio, beauty, energy, child development, aging, memory loss, prenatal, eyesight, weight loss and immune support. Unipharm exclusively sells its broad range of quality merchandise through pharmacies. It enjoys a market-leader SRVLWLRQ LQ 5XVVLD 8NUDLQH 3RODQG Kazakhstan, and other CIS countries, as well as an expanding position in other markets. Unipharm has also expanded to Asia where many of its preparations have already been registered and are now available to new customers. #47/2011 9 .&.#&3/&84 .&.#&3/&84 GRATA Law Firm is delighted to announce the appointment of Maxim Grekov as Counsel. Paying Taxes 2012: Central Asia and Eastern Europe Findings Astana, November 23, 2011 - This is the sixth year that the Global Indicators and Analysis group within the World Bank DQG,)&DQG3Z&KDYHSURGXFHGWKH3D\LQJ7D[HVUHSRUW Paying Taxes 2012: The Global Picture measures the ease of paying taxes in 183 economies around the world. The report covers the cost of taxes borne by the case study company as well as the administrative burden of tax FRPSOLDQFHIRUWKHÀUP%RWKDUHLPSRUWDQWIRUEXVLQHVV Kazakhstan is ranked 17th in the world in terms of ease of paying taxes, which makes it the top-ranked country not only in Central Asia, but also in the CIS. Other countries of Central Asia are ranked lower: Kyrgyz Republic (162), Tajikistan (168) and Uzbekistan (157). Russia is 102nd, and China is number 121 in the global ease of paying taxes ranking. According to the report and the methodology applied, Kazakhstan performs well in terms of the number of tax payments (total of 7 payments, ranked 11th) and reasonably well in the area of total tax rate (ranked 41) with a rate of 28.6%, which is among the top 3 in the CIS). The area in need of most improvement is the time required to comply. It takes 188 hours to comply with all tax payments, ranked 68th on time compliance. The overall results for Kazakhstan rank in the upper quartiles in Central Asia and Eastern Europe: one tax per EDVH SURÀWV ODERXU DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG RQOLQH ÀOLQJ reduce the number of payments. The time to comply is below both the regional and the world average and the TTR is also ORZEXWWD[HVRQSURÀWDUHDERYHWKHUHJLRQDODYHUDJH Peter Burnie Tax Leading Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said, “While Kazakhstan's SHUIRUPDQFH LQ WKH UHSRUW UHÁHFWV SRVLWLYHO\ RQ WKH WD[ environment, taxpayers in Kazakhstan continue to face VLJQLÀFDQW WD[ FKDOOHQJHV PDQ\ RI ZKLFK VWHP IURP WD[ administration and dispute resolution, which are not directly measured by the survey methodology.” For more information about 3D\LQJ7D[HV, visit ZZZSZF FRPSD\LQJWD[HV 10 Maxim Grekov has over 20 years of experience in .D]DNKVWDQ·V OHJDO FRPPXQLW\ 3ULRU WR MRLQLQJ *5$7$ /DZ )LUP 0D[LP ZDV D &RXQVHO RI %DNHU 0F.HQ]LH LQ $OPDW\ ZKHUH KH VSHFLDOL]HG LQ EDQNLQJ ÀQDQFLDO DQG FRUSRUDWHODZDQG0$LVVXHV+HSUHYLRXVO\VHUYHGDVD 6HQLRU$VVRFLDWHLQWKH$OPDW\RIÀFHVRI:KLWH&DVHDQG 'HZH\/HERHXI Maxim Grekov has extensive experience advising LQWHUQDWLRQDOEDQNVRQFURVVERUGHUOHQGLQJSXEOLFGHEW HTXLW\LVVXDQFHVDQGRWKHUÀQDQFHSURGXFWVLQ.D]DNKVWDQ and other Central Asia countries. His clients also include multinational agencies like IFC, EBRD and ADB. In addition, he is an experienced advisor to international and local FRPSDQLHVLQFRPSOH[0$SURMHFWV GRATA Law Firm was founded in 1992. It is the leading law ÀUPLQ&HQWUDO$VLDDQGWKH&DVSLDQUHJLRQZLWKPRUHWKDQ lawyers and a network of branches in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, 0RQJROLD 8QLWHG $UDE (PLUDWHV DV ZHOO DV UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV LQ London and New York. *UDWDKHOSLWVFOLHQWVHVWDEOLVKDOHJDOSUHVHQFHLQDOOUHJLRQVRI .D]DNKVWDQDQGPRVWSDUWVRI&HQWUDO$VLDDQGWKH&DVSLDQUHJLRQ DQGVXSSRUWVWKHPGXULQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHLUEXVLQHVVHV7KH ÀUP SURYLGHV OHJDO DQG FRQVXOWDQF\ VHUYLFHV LQ HQYLURQPHQWDO FRUSRUDWH DQG FRPPHUFLDO ODZ SURSHUW\ DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DQG H[SRUW RI JRRGV DQG LQGXVWULDO HTXLSPHQWÀQDQFLDOOHDVLQJIUDQFKLVLQJSURWHFWLRQRIFRS\ULJKWV DQG SDWHQWV UHJLVWUDWLRQ RI WUDGH PDUNV DQG RWKHU PHDVXUHV IRU LQGLYLGXDOL]LQJ JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV EDQNLQJ DQG FXUUHQF\ UHJXODWLRQ WD[DWLRQ OLFHQVLQJ DQG SHUPLW SURFHGXUHV DQG OLWLJDWLRQDQGPHGLDWLRQZLWKFRPSDQLHVDQGVWDWHDXWKRULWLHV #47/2011 .&.#&3/&84 World AIDS Day in Kazakhstan – Conversations with the UK 2Q 1RYHPEHU %ULWLVK &RXQFLO .D]DNKVWDQ RUJDQLVHG D 5RXQGWDEOHIROORZHGE\DYLGHRFRQIHUHQFHZLWKWKH8.WRPDUN December 1 – World AIDS Day. The aim of the World Aids Day Rountable was to raise awareness about HIV, discuss the stigmatization and discrimination against people living with HIV in Kazakhstan and globally, and share experience via videoconference with UK expert Angela Costetsos from the Terrence Higgins Trust, the leading and largest HIV and sexual health charity in the UK, together with young people associated with the Trust. Young volunteers from the Dostar Youth Volunteer Leadership Centre located in Shymkent, students from Almaty, representatives of the Kazakhstan AIDS centre, a number of NGOs, and Chevron participated in the Roundtable KRVWHGLQWKH%ULWLVK&RXQFLORIÀFHLQ$OPDW\7KH\VKDUHG their experience and discussed how stigmatization and discrimination against HIV-positive people affect society. The highlight of the event was the videoconference discussion which followed between the Roundtable group in Almaty and the UK expert together with the young people from the Terrence Higgins Trust. The participants from Kazakhstan were inspired during the videoconference by the UK speakers who shared their experience, saying how useful and lively the discussion ZDV 3DUWLFLSDQWV SURYLGHG SRVLWLYH IHHGEDFN QRWLQJ WKDW problems and challenges were similar in Kazakhstan and it was very valuable and interesting to know about the HIV situation in the UK. They were also impressed by what the Terrence Higgins Trust does to overcome challenges and change peoples’ attitudes towards HIV-positive people. “I was impressed by the organization when I visited the Terrence Higgins Trust website. It was impressive and exciting to see and communicate directly with people representing the organization who implement important activities to raise people’s awareness and challenge prejudice and discrimination,” said Nursultan Altynbek, a participant from Shymkent. #47/2011 KLM Offers AmCham Members Corporate Status 'XULQJ'HFHPEHU./05R\DO'XWFK$LUOLQHVLVSOHDVHG WRH[WHQGDQH[FOXVLYHRIIHUWRPHPEHUVRIWKH$PHULFDQ&KDPEHU RI&RPPHUFHLQ.D]DNKVWDQ AmCham member companies are invited to join BlueBiz, an AIR FRANCE and KLM corporate program, to begin earning points for their employees’ next business trips departing from Almaty with KLM and its partner airlines. BlueBiz points earned in this way are like cash (1 BlueBiz point = 1 USD). Member companies will be able to spend SRLQWVRQIUHHÁLJKWVDQG%XVLQHVV&ODVVXSJUDGHV Special offer for AmCham members - a Welcome Bonus of 50 points! To receive this Bonus, AmCham members should register their company in BlueBiz online at www.klm. kz, under KLM for Business using the ‘AmCham’ promotion code between 1–31 December 2011. For more information please contact ./0%OXH%L]([HFXWLYH at (+7 727) 330 21 44. BlueBiz. The easiest way to reward your company. 11 "35*$-&4 ".$)".&$0/0.*$10-*$:'036. #"/,*/(3&(6-"503:3&'03.'03,";",)45"/ $3&"5*/(45"#*-*5:*/"70-"5*-&&/7*30/.&/5 1HDUO\ SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP WKH EDQNLQJ ÀQDQFLDO DQG government sectors came together on November 11, 2011 to attend a special economic conference entitled Banking Regulatory Reform for Kazakhstan: Creating Stability in a Volatile Environment under the AmCham Economic Policy Forum (AEPF) Series. 7KH )RUXP WKH WK $(3) FRQIHUHQFH over the past 3 years, was sponsored by Ernst & Young and ZDVKHOGDWWKH5DKDW3DODFH+RWHO7KHFRQIHUHQFHVVHUYHWR bring into the public domain issues in Kazakhstan’s investment FOLPDWHWKDWDUHDUWLFXODWHGLQ$P&KDP:KLWH3DSHUVSUHVHQWHG to the Government of Kazakhstan, and recommendations that GULYHWKH$P&KDP3URMHFW7HDPVLQWKHLUFROODERUDWLYHZRUN with government agencies. The Forum format divided the day into morning and afternoon sessions. The morning panel, which focused on the Global Challenge of Banking Regulatory Reform was moderated by Ulf Wokurka, Managing Director of Deutsche Bank. The afternoon panel was centered on Challenges Facing Kazakhstan’s Banks and Regulatory Reform, moderated by Michael Carter, a prominent international equity and investment expert. With many years of experience in the local markets, the two moderators led the sessions with commentary that sparked discussion among speakers and participants. Grigoriy Marchenko opens the Banking Forum Governor Marchenko further underlined that the National %DQN WULHV WR SOD\ D PLQLPDO UROH IXOÀOOLQJ EDVLF WDVNV OLNH VWDELOLW\ DQG PDFURSUXGHQWLDO UHJXODWLRQ 3DUW RI FRQWLQXLQJ this role will be to analyze Basel III components and incorporate the best aspects into Kazakhstan’s banking system ZLWK$P&KDP·VDGYLVRU\DVVLVWDQFHWKURXJKLWV3URMHFW7HDP of experts. Overcoming what Marchenko describes as the two main problems in regulatory reform - its scope and Basel III’s ¶RQH VL]H ÀWV DOO· DSSURDFK ZLWK OLWWOH DWWHQWLRQ WR FRXQWU\ RU systemic diversity - will be a challenge for the team, but one that, if successful, could provide fruitful results. Morning Panel: Banking Regulation, A Global Challenge Hans Holzhacker, Senior Banker at ATF/Unicredit Bank, NLFNHG RII WKH ÀUVW SDQHO ZLWK D SUHVHQWDWLRQ KLJKOLJKWLQJ the urgency of banking regulatory reform and posing many tough questions to would-be regulators and legislators who will be implementing the reform package. Underlining the importance of the typical credit cycles countries tend to follow, KHUHFRPPHQGHGWKDWSROLF\PDNHUVÀUVWH[DPLQHZKHUHWKH\ fall in the cycle and adjust their policies accordingly; otherwise, he warns, imbalances and crises can occur. National Bank Governor Grigoriy Marchenko speaks to the media As usual for AmCham conferences, a large turn-out from the local media was present, including Biznes I Vlast’, Kommersant, 3DQRUDPD([SHUW.D]DNKVWDQ.XUVLY%XVLQHVV1HZV.D]DNKVWDQ 79 $VWDQD 79 %XVLQHVV :DYH .D]7$* and ([SUHVV . Interviews were taken during the breaks with the Keynote Speaker and noted panelists. Keynote Speaker National Bank Governor Grigoriy Marchenko Always sought after for his comments and views on the ÀQDQFLDO ZRUOG LQ .D]DNKVWDQ DQG DEURDG Governor of the National Bank, Grigoriy Marchenko, opened the Forum with his analysis of Kazakhstan’s current economy, providing historical perspective of what has been achieved over the past 20 years since independence. Heavily facilitated by the National Bank, DQHZWZR\HDU$FWLRQ3ODQZLOOEHLPSOHPHQWHGZLWKWKHJRDO RI VXSSRUWLQJ V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV 6,),VÀQLVKLQJFRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWVWRVSXUKRXVLQJVXSSRUW SME development, and increase public investment in industry. Continual work on the tax code has made Kazakhstan’s code one of the most developed in the CIS. 14 Hans Holzhacker, ATF/Unicredit Bank during coffee break Mr. Holzhacker further shared the ‘Concept’ that Kazakhstan has drawn up to reform the country’s economic growth and funding model. The Concept covers capital adequacy, liquidity, and statistical and loan provisions. Understanding how this plan will be matched with the proposed adoption of Basel III will be important for the future of Kazakhstan’s economy. #47/2011 a different challenge, with widespread disagreement between various agencies and Congress. Further complicating things is the Dodd-Frank Act, which limits the introduction of new regulations that might be less strict than existing legislation. 2QHRIWKHIHZFRXQWULHVWRZHDWKHUWKHÀQDQFLDOFULVLVZDV Canada and Canadian Ambassador to Kazakhstan Stephen Millar shared some insights on how and why it did so well while the rest of the world was facing massive blowbacks. The cultural impact cannot be ignored, as Canadian bankers and regulators have always been traditionally conservative in their policies and operations. Venture operations are controlled mostly by the largest banks, which have little tolerance for risky investments. "35*$-&4 Building further on the idea of a stable and balanced economy, Senior Representative for Commerzbank in Kazakhstan Bodo Thöns gave a presentation entitled “%DVHO,,,&UHDWLQJD6WDEOH 5HJXODWRU\&OLPDWHµ He stressed that Basel III implementation, if it is to become a global standard, will require consideration of many national and cultural points of interest to ensure that transition and adaptation goes smoothly. The new regulatory framework centers on four main objectives: increasing capital UHTXLUHPHQWVPLWLJDWLQJF\FOLFDOHIIHFWVGHFRXSOLQJÀQDQFLDO institutions, and preventing calculation and methodological errors. Bodo Thöns, Commerzbank, at the podium Mr. Thöns also examined the impact of Basel III on the attractiveness of various loans in the future. SIFIs are likely to suffer due to higher capital adequacy requirements, and different bank products and business models will be affected. Traditional loans will become more expensive, as will trade ÀQDQFH+HDOVRH[SODLQHGWKHLPSDFWRQFRUSRUDWHDQGUHWDLO loans, and loans to banks. In summary, the speaker stressed WKDWFUHGLWZLOOFKDQJHVLJQLÀFDQWO\DQGZLOOEHOHVVDFFHVVLEOH in the future. Ulf Wokurka, Managing Director for Deutsche Bank Kazakhstan, the Moderator for the morning panel, gave a presentation on what the reforms will mean for SIFIs. Though Basel III will bring about large changes, he reminded participants that this reform package is only one in a broader regulatory agenda set by the G-20. Increases in Tier 1 core FDSLWDOWKHGHÀQLWLRQRIZKLFKLVVWLOOEHLQJGHEDWHGDQGWKH capital buffer remain the biggest concerns for banks, though they are only one aspect of the agenda. Ulf Wokurka answers a question from the audience 3URYLGLQJVRPHWKRXJKWIXODQDO\VLVWRWKH(XURSHDQDQG86 contexts, Mr. Wokurka pointed out that the EU process is already underway, and by 2019 the European Banking Authority will have implemented approximately 150 standards. The US faces #47/2011 Canadian Ambassador outlines the Canadian banking system More importantly, perhaps, Ambassador Millar explained that Canada did not deregulate its banks in the 1980s as did the US and most other industrialized countries. While other countries were lowering their capital requirements, Canada was raising theirs, consistently maintaining their standards above internationally-accepted ones. The interaction of Canada’s regulatory agencies along with the dialogue between the Government and private sector plays an important role in keeping the system balanced. Afternoon Panel: Kazakhstan’s Banks and Regulatory Reform The afternoon panel was moderated by AmCham Board Member Michael Carter, a prominent international equity and investment expert, who also led with a presentation entitled “Banking in Kazakhstan – Is the Crisis Over?” He summarized the current situation in Kazakhstan as no longer being in a critical state, but as being stable with excess liquidity, poor loan growth, a lack of overall growth, and declining margins. Although this may not sound promising, he assured participants that things are slowly improving. He recommended that Kazakhstan take a “home-grown DSSURDFKµDQGGHYHORSPHDVXUHVWRKHDOWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP guiding it back to previous levels. The government should invest in the housing sector, which took one of the biggest hits and hasn’t had a true recovery. Mr. Carter believes that Kazakhstan is now more resistant to crises than in 2007 with a lack of acid bubbles and a 53% increase in foreign reserves to buffer against future troubles. Banking consolidation may be necessary in the future with Samryk Kazyna needing to display leadership in mediating such consolidations. 15 "35*$-&4 presentation covered the mathematical calculations that would change with the introduction of Basel III, especially the various reserves (Special, Dynamic, Counter-Cyclical, and Systemic) that would be required. Also included were the new liquidity ratios and their timelines for introduction. Michael Carter speaks about post-crisis Kazakhstan 0XUDW .RVKHQRY &KLHI 5LVN 2IÀFHU IRU +DO\N %DQN presented on the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s banks following the expected impact of regulatory reforms. There has been sector recovery with good progress in deleveraging and early, still fragile economic growth. Government programs like the %XVLQHVV5RDGPDS, together with tax changes and non-performing loan resolution mechanisms for the banking sector, should provide further support for sector recovery. Murat Koshenov, Halyk Bank, outlines Kazakhstan's challenges Mr. Koshenov talked about the anticipated impact of the joint Customs Union and the Common Economic Space, which are seen as attracting more investment and providing growth opportunities. He also spoke about the effect that Russia’s economy will have on Kazakhstan when the Union and Economic Space are fully implemented. Returning to Basel III, he posed several questions for discussion, notably whether rapid implementation of Basel III might have adverse effects and whether or not capital changes should be aligned ZLWKPDMRUÀQDQFLDOSDUWQHUV7KHVHDUHDVSHFWVRIUHJXODWRU\ reform are of concern to Kazakhstan’s commercial banks. 7KH ÀQDO LQGHSWK SUHVHQWDWLRQ ZDV JLYHQ E\ Nurlan Abdrakhmanov, Head of the Strategy and Methodology Department at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. His 16 Nurlan Abrakhmanov, NBK, discusses stronger regulation 7KH VSHFLÀF FKDQJHV ZHUH RUJDQL]HG DFFRUGLQJ WR D timeline showing their intended dates of introduction, with incremental increases starting in 2013 and continuing until 2019. Mr. Abdrakhamanov commented that while many are ZRUULHGWKDWIXUWKHUUHJXODWLRQZLOOVWLÁHJURZWKWKH1DWLRQDO Bank will only be in favor of these or any other regulations if they are seen as having positive impact. The changes will not necessarily lead to banking consolidation, but they will certainly lead to increased capitalization requirements. The Forum thus examined Kazakhstan’s banking environment from a variety of perspectives: in terms of the VSHFLÀF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH FRXQWU\·V EDQNLQJ V\VWHP WKH LPSDFW RI WKH JOREDO ÀQDQFLDO crisis, its recovery and ongoing banking restructuring, Basel III and the impact its recommendations will have on the global banking system, as well as Kazakhstan’s banks, and the impact of the eurozone crisis, which is still unfolding. These DUHGLIÀFXOWLVVXHVEXWWKHFURZGRISDUWLFLSDQWVDWWHQGLQJWKH Forum and the very heightened media presence attested to the interest these issues have for a broad range of professionals with an interest in public and economic policy. Graham Settle, Asian Development Bank, queries a speaker #47/2011 /"5*0/"-#"/,(07&3/03(3*(03*:."3$)&/,0 01&/4".$)".#"/,*/('036. #47/2011 starting with Basel I. When the Basel II recommendations appeared, Kazakhstan expressed doubt about the new recommendations. In hindsight, the Basel II standards caused PDQ\SUREOHPVDQGSOD\HGDUROHLQWKHUHFHQWJOREDOÀQDQFLDO FULVLV3DUWRIWKHSUREOHPZDVRYHUUHOLDQFHRQLQWHUQDWLRQDO banking models. The rating agencies followed the same model, one reason the National Bank doesn’t always take their ratings seriously. Moreover, the rating agencies do not maintain RIÀFHVLQ.D]DNKVWDQDQGRQO\YLVLWWKHFRXQWU\WZLFHSHU\HDU Their analysis is thus not as thorough or as well-informed as could be desired. The Basel III regulatory standards have been approved in Kazakhstan by the Association of Financiers and will be implemented by January 2013. However, the Basel III UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVZLOOQHHGWREHDGDSWHGWRÀWWKHUHTXLUHPHQWV of Kazakhstan’s banking system. The two main problems are that it is a sweeping program in its scope, but it fails to take into consideration differences between countries and the diversity of these countries’ economies. While the National Bank wants DXQLÀHGVHWRILQWHUQDWLRQDOVWDQGDUGVWKHUHQHHGVWREHVRPH ÁH[LELOLW\EXLOWLQWRWKHP²RQHVL]HÀWVDOOFDQ·WZRUNIRUWKH entire world. Basel IV may address this issue. At the height of the crisis, Samryk-Kazyna acquired stakes LQ VHYHUDO PDMRU ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV ,W LV WKH SRVLWLRQ RI the National Bank that Samruk-Kazyna should exit as soon as possible, provided there is a solid buyer in the picture. According to regulations, Samruk-Kazyna should have exited BTA, Temir, and Alliance Banks within two years after restructuring by September 2010. While there is certainly interest in re-privatizing, the current Eurozone crisis together with increased capitalization requirements that will be introduced under Basel III have made the banks unattractive to any buyers except East Asian investors from Mumbai, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, who, though they may have the investment capacity, aren’t as familiar with Kazakhstani markets as are investors from Europe and North America. As the National Bank moves forward with its plans to adapt and adopt Basel III, it will keep the Bank’s main goals in mind: "35*$-&4 As Keynote Speaker at the $P&KDP%DQNLQJ..Forum, National Bank Governor Grigoriy Marchenko presented an overview of .D]DNKVWDQ·VHFRQRP\DIWHUWKHÀQDQFLDOFULVLVWKDWEHJDQLQ Kazakhstan in 2007. He also commented at length on the need for a new regulatory regime for Kazakhstan’s banking system, outlining how the Basel III regulatory regulations adopted in -XQHFDQVWUHQJWKHQWKHFRXQWU\·VÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU Grigoriy Marchenko, who is currently serving his second term as Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Governor, studied economics at the Moscow Institute of International Relations DQGSXUVXHGJUDGXDWHVWXGLHVDVD3HZ)HOORZDW*HRUJHWRZQ University in Washington, D.C. He has held many senior positions, including First Deputy Minister, Chairman of the 1DWLRQDO 6HFXULWLHV &RPPLVVLRQ DQG $GYLVRU WR 3UHVLGHQW Nazarbayev. Mr. Marchenko has also worked in the private sector as CEO and Chairman of Halyk Bank. He was recalled to the National Bank in early 2009 at the height of the global banking crisis to handle the challenges posed to the country’s banking system. Under his watch, Kazakhstan maintained EDQNLQJDQGÀVFDOVWDELOLW\ Governor Marchenko stated that Kazakhstan has recovered well from the global economic crisis, with growth up 7% in 2010. In fact, with the exception of ’07-’08, Kazakhstan has enjoyed average growth of about 7% for the past 12 years. The XQGHUO\LQJUHDVRQVIRUWKHFULVLVZHUHWKUHHIROGWKHÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV· XQGHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI ULVNV WKH ÀQDQFLDO V\VWHP·V pro-cyclicity featuring high growth rates of lending, leverage and asset prices, and the high level of payments owed by domestic banks on external liabilities. Mr. Marchenko noted that the Kazakhstan banking sector’s foreign debt is being resolved through restructuring. Kazakhstan has taken measures to stimulate economic JURZWK$-RLQW7ZR<HDU$FWLRQ3ODQGHYHORSHGEHWZHHQWKH Government, the National Bank, and the Financial Supervisory $JHQF\WRVWDELOL]HWKHHFRQRP\DQGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPDLPVWR support the country’s top four banks, complete residential FRQVWUXFWLRQSURMHFWVVSXUKRXVLQJGHPDQGSURYLGHÀQDQFLDO assistance to small-medium businesses and the agricultural sector, and increase public investment in industry. Further, a new Tax Code adopted in January 2009 reduces corporate income tax to 20%, replaces royalties on oil production with mineral extraction, and reduces VAT from 13% to 12%. Together with local agencies, the government is providing XQHPSOR\PHQWEHQHÀWVWRWKHMREOHVV/DVWO\WKH1DWLRQDO%DQN RI.D]DNKVWDQKDVORZHUHGLQWHUHVWUDWHVUHÀQDQFLQJUDWHVLV UHÀQDQFLQJORDQVWREDQNVWRHQVXUHVKRUWWHUPOLTXLGLW\DQG has decreased deposit rates to discourage banks from holding funds and pushing lenders to invest in the real sector. The National Bank sees its role as minimal, its priority being responsibility for overall stability and macroprudential regulation. The Bank has encouraged Islamic banking, but to date only one Islamic bank from the Emirates has entered the Kazakhstan market. The National Bank has been adamant about adopting international sets of standards for the local banking system, but is cautious in moving forward with the appropriate changes. In 1996, the Bank moved to IFI standards, PRELOL]DWLRQRIÀQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVIROORZLQJWKH ÀQDQFLDOFULVLV FRQVROLGDWLRQRIÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUVXSHUYLVLRQDQGUHJXODWLRQ VWUHQJWKHQLQJRIPHFKDQLVPVWRSURWHFWLQYHVWRUULJKWV DQGWKHULJKWVRIÀQDQFLDOVHUYLFHV·FXVWRPHUVDQG PDFURSUXGHQWLDOUHJXODWLRQ The expected results of the goals and the adoption of Basel III in Kazakhstan are four-fold: WRDWWUDFWÀQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVIRU.D]DNKVWDQ·VDFFHOHUDWHG industrial innovation plan WR UHGXFH WKH ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU·V F\FOLFDO QDWXUH ZLWK LWV inherent unpredictability WR FUHDWH FRQGLWLRQV IRU WKH ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU·V VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQWDQGRWKHUFRQÀGHQFHEXLOGLQJPHDVXUHVDQG WKH VWDWH·V JUDGXDO H[LW IURP ÀQDQFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV HQDEOLQJWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUWRUHJDLQLWVLQGHSHQGHQFH 17 #"/,*/(*/,";",)45"/*45)&$3*4*407&3 By Michael Carter AmCham Board Member For the past three years, it seems like one can’t even take a taxi ride without hearing the word “crisis.” Regardless, it’s safe to say Kazakhstan’s banking sector is out of intensive care and has moved into a slightly more stable condition. We have gone from a liquidity crisis and from having loan collateral impairment from the collapse of the real estate bubble and other loose lending practices to having excess liquidity, poor loan growth, a lack of overall growth, and declining margins. But in order to move ahead, the industry needs consolidation, more capital, and to further develop industry skill sets and expertise. At a time when potential international partners and strategic investors are focused on their own larger problems, a do-it-yourself approach may be necessary. The quick answer is that consolidation could solve many of the industry’s problems. If loan quality is bad, some banks will need more capital, either through injection or creation of a state SUREOHPORDQIXQGRUPRUHRIÀFLDOO\D'LVWUHVVHG$VVHW)XQG Banks need to further develop their skill sets and be willing to EHÁH[LEOHZLWKWKHLUSURGXFWV International banks are trying to reduce their assets, not expand them. In response, Kazakhstan’s banks need a homegrown approach as foreign banks turn more inwards in their focus. External debt has slowed, but is still rising. Most of this growth is in inter-corporate loans, thus reducing stress on the ÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP,QWKHSDVW.D]DNKVWDQ·VEDQNVKDYHQHYHU needed to exert themselves, but in the future, they will need to be more creative to ensure their continued existence and growth. The practice of making loose loans started outside Kazakhstan, but soon infected the local market, peaking in 2006-2007. Since that time, more constraints from regulators have decreased the Loan-to-deposit ratios. In 2007, banks had a very weak deposit base, with loans to clients accounting for more twice the deposit base. Today the rate stands at 130% (net 89%) and leverage is decreasing. Asset Quality Seven different real estate indices are available in Kazakhstan and from looking at the graph of Almaty Residential Real Estate, one can see that the real estate recovery is not V-shaped, but VKRZVDVLJQLÀFDQWFROODSVHZLWKDVORZGUDZQRXWUHFRYHU\ 18 Loan quality is still deteriorating while standard loans have ÁDWWHQHGRXW7KHTXHVWLRQWRDVNLVZKHWKHUWKHUHLVWUXHFURVV sector loan quality recognition. Other problems include overdue payments continuing to LQFUHDVHGXULQJDSHULRGZKHQQRQSHUIRUPLQJORDQV13/V KDYHJRQHFRPSOHWHO\ÁDW$FFUXHGLQWHUHVWKDVLQFUHDVHGDQG currently accounts for 50% of equity in the banking sector, DQG WKLV ÀJXUHV H[FOXGHV WKH WKUHH UHVWUXFWXUHG EDQNV ,I loan quality is questionable, then one would also question the true value of the accrued interest in bank balance sheets, as this is certainly one item that is subject to negotiation in any loan restructuring. Taking this into account, it is fair to ask whether or not a number of banks will have the needed capital by January 2013, as Basel III implementation starts in Kazakhstan. It is essential to have tax law changes implemented to allow the banking sector to restructure, write-down and dispose of distressed loans and assets from their portfolio – something currently made impracticable by a tax treatment that renders a writedown a taxable event for both the lender and the borrower. This would allow bank management to focus on developing the future business of the banks. The tax law change would bring many positive changes, but they will not solve the need for fresh capital. Asset Growth and Mix Since the crisis, we have seen a more muted level of banks assets growth. Unfortunately for bank earning power (and for access to credit by the real economy), loan growth has been disappointingly low. A recent pick up in loan volumes has been mainly focused on retail sector lending, and not to the SME and corporate sectors. /RDQVWRIRUHLJQHQWLWLHVDQGÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDFFRXQWIRU the highest percentage of overdue loans by sector, explaining why Governor Marchenko has made it more expensive to lend to foreign entities. Foreign currency-denominated loans have now declined to less than 40% and bank loan books are mainly corporate and domestic. While deposits seem to be growing, these are predominantly corporate deposits, which are inherently a less stable deposit base upon which to extend new loans – especially new loans of mid-term duration. Conclusions The current funding structure of Kazakhstan’s banking sector is more “shock resistant” than in 2007 and contains no apparent asset bubbles, thus reducing the risk of external shocks triggering D EDQNLQJ FULVLV 7KH *RYHUQPHQW KDV PRUH ÀUHSRZHU WKDQ LW did in 2008, increasing total foreign reserves by more than 53% as a buffer against future crises. Loan growth would alleviate asset quality issues and help to drive growth of the non-resource economy, but it is still not apparent in the SME and corporate sectors. Non-resource development is traditionally the stable driver of an economy, which is why Kazakhstan needs a growing banking sector with a funding base that allows it to extend longer term credit to the non-resource economy. Further banking consolidation is needed – 39 banks are too many. A more ideal number would be 10-12 banks to serve a variety of clients. However, there are few external candidates to drive this process, which might make Samruk-Kazyna the most appropriate party to take the lead. This would be an opportunity for Samruk-Kazyna to enhance its efforts to diversify the economy by promoting the development of a sound banking VHFWRUWKDWLVWKHO\QFKSLQWRWKHGLYHUVLÀFDWLRQHIIRUW #47/2011 "35*$-&4 5)&$"/"%*"/#"/,*/(3&(6-"503:.0%&- "46$$&44 20 By Ambassador Stephen Millar Canadian Ambassador to Kazakhstan ,QOLJKWRIWKHJOREDOÀQDQFLDOFULVLVWKDWEHJDQLQWKH Canadian banking system proved extremely resilient. Canadian banks did not fail and the Canadian housing market remained, DQGFRQWLQXHVWRUHPDLQUREXVW1RÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUEDLORXWV were needed in Canada. In fact, the Canadian banking system has been rated by the World Economic Forum as the world’s soundest banking system. In 2008 the IMF Financial Stability $VVHVVPHQW 3URJUDP FRQFOXGHG WKDW &DQDGD·V ÀQDQFLDO system is “mature, sophisticated, and well-managed. Financial stability is underpinned by sound macroeconomic policies and strong prudential regulation and supervision”. The most recent global recognition of the strengths of Canada’s banking system was the appointment of Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to replace Mario Draghi at the head of the Financial Stability Board, which will acquire VWURQJHU SRZHUV LQ UHDFWLRQ WR WKH UHFHQW (XUR]RQH ÀQDQFLDO FULVLVWKDWPD\KDYHEURDGUHSHUFXVVLRQVDFURVVJOREDOÀQDQFLDO markets. There are many reasons for Canada’s different approach to banking regulatory control. First, there are cultural reasons - risk aversion and the inherent conservatism of Canadian EDQNHUV ZKR IHDU ULVN DQG DUH SURÀFLHQW DW PDQDJLQJ LW ,Q Canada venture capital operations are almost all in the hands of the country’s largest commercial banks, which have a lower ULVNWROHUDQFHWKDQYHQWXUHFDSLWDOÀQDQFHUVHOVHZKHUH7KLV also means that venture capital operations are subject to Canada’s regulatory system for banks. Secondly, there are institutional reasons – Canada did not JRWKURXJKWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUGHUHJXODWLRQWKDWFKDUDFWHUL]HG the U.S., U.K., and other industrialized countries in the 1980s DQG V &DQDGD·V ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DUH VRXQG ZHOO FDSLWDOL]HGDQGVLJQLÀFDQWO\OHVVOHYHUDJHGWKDQWKHLUSHHUVLQ RWKHUFRXQWULHV7KLVUHÁHFWVDULJRURXVUHJXODWRU\UHJLPH Canadian regulations impose higher capital requirements, as well as higher requirements for the quality of assets and higher leverage ratios. In fact, Canada raised the capital requirements for banks when other countries were lowering theirs. Canadian banks are required to maintain capital in excess of international minimum standards and typically hold even higher amounts than required by Canadian regulation as a buffer. Both the IMF and the Chinese government criticized Canada some years ago for not doing enough to promote securitization in its mortgage market. Canada’s regulatory agencies work well together in administering this framework: 7KH %DQN RI &DQDGD WKH FRXQWU\·V FHQWUDO EDQN LV responsible for the overall system 7KH6XSHULQWHQGHQWRI)LQDQFLDO,QVWLWXWLRQVLVUHVSRQVLEOH IRUWKHVWDELOLW\RIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV 7KH 'HSDUWPHQW 0LQLVWU\ RI )LQDQFH VHWV EURDG UXOHV IRURZQHUVKLSRIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGGHVLJQRIÀQDQFLDO products $Q HIIHFWLYH FRQVXPHU SURWHFWLRQ DJHQF\ ZRUNV WR safeguard the interests of individual borrowers Another important factor behind the stability of Canada’s ÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPLVLWVPRUWJDJHÀQDQFHV\VWHPZKLFKDOORZV very little sub-prime lending. Unlike economies hardest hit Stephen Millar, Canadian Ambassador to Kazakhstan by the crisis, Canada has a highly restrictive mortgage market. All mortgages with less than a 20 per cent down payment must be insured; adjustable rate and interest-only mortgages are unheard-of in Canada. Residential mortgage default insurance is dominated by the state-owned Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. As a result, less than 1 per cent of Canadian mortgages are in default, versus 10 per cent in the United States. Yet the rate of home ownership is virtually identical in the two countries. $ ÀQDO IDFWRU LV &DQDGD·V VWURQJ HFRQRPLF IXQGDPHQWDOV :KHQ&DQDGDZDVIDFLQJVHULRXVÀVFDOSUHVVXUHVLQWKHHDUO\ 1990s, the Canadian Government took strong measures to UHVWRUHÀVFDOEDODQFH7KLVSURGXFHGDGHFDGHRIVLJQLÀFDQW EXGJHWVXUSOXVHV&DQDGDRQO\ZHQWLQWRÀVFDOGHÀFLWLQ when it contributed to the global economic stimulus effort. A weak point in this system is securities regulation. Canada is a federal state whose banking issues are the responsibility of federal authorities and whose securities regulation is the responsibility of provincial and territorial authorities. There is a need for a single securities regulator, and progress is being made in this direction. Among the risks facing Canadian banks, it should be pointed out that Canadian banks and the Canadian economy are not immune to global trends. Canada is a very open economy in ZKLFKWKHEXONRIWKHFRXQWU\·V*'3LVGHSHQGHQWRQIRUHLJQ trade. The United States is a very important trading partner. Among Canada’s unique features is that it has a small QXPEHURIODUJHEDQNV²ÀYHEDQNVDFFRXQWIRUURXJKO\SHU cent of the total assets of the country’s banking sector. Foreign banks account for only 49% of the banking sector. The low presence of foreign banks is due largely to Canadian regulation that limits concentration of bank share ownership. This also reduces the scope for mergers and acquisitions. Canada thus stands out in the global banking landscape for the stability of its banking institutions and its sound, well-administered regulatory environment. This is rooted in cultural, historical, and institutional reasons and is in many ZD\V XQLTXH WR &DQDGD *LYHQ WKH JOREDO ÀQDQFLDO WXUPRLO of recent years and the sovereign debt crisis that is now XQIROGLQJ LQ (XURSH &DQDGD·V EDQNV HFRQRP\ DQG ÀVFDO policy emerge as a carefully-cultivated model of restraint, prudence, coordination, and good management. Canada has seen no institutional melt-downs or bail-outs, and though it is impacted by global developments, it is well-positioned to UHPDLQDEDVWLRQRIÀQDQFLDOVWDELOLW\ #47/2011 "35*$-&4 "35*$-&4 5)&63(&/$:0'#"/,*/(3&(6-"503:3&'03. By Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist ATF/UniCredit Bank Kazakhstan A broad spectrum of questions, answers and suggestions arise when it comes to the role regulatory reform plays in WKH ÀQDQFLDO V\VWHP ,Q UHVSRQVH WR WKH PRVW UHFHQW 03 Global bankruptcy, for example the Daily Kos says “this is not capitalism at all, this is playing games with capital, failing to invest in our society, failing to put capital to use to generate ORQJWHUPJURZWKDQGLQFRPHRSSRUWXQLWLHVWKDWZLOOEHQHÀW society, but rather just using $ to create paper gains that create nothing. At what point will [they] give us real regulation that HQGVWKLVGHVWUXFWLYHÀQDQFLDOH[FHVV"µ In a policy paper addressed to the G20, the wording by The Institute of International Finance sounds – not surprisingly – slightly different: “if banks are to play their part in supporting economic recovery, G-20 leaders need to look beyond narrow UHJXODWRU\LPSHUDWLYHVWRWKHEURDGHUHFRQRPLFDQGÀQDQFLDO FRQWH[W 3ROLF\PDNHUV VKRXOG FDOO D KDOW WR WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ of new regulation while the core elements of reform, such as increases in equity capital and recovery and resolution arrangements, are put in place.” Global regulatory reform is indeed needed, but recapitalizing European banks and other broad measures will come at considerable cost, according to the IIF, as banks will prefer to shrink risk assets rather than try to raise expensive capital. The current economic woes lead us to question whether our economic model from the 1970s on has been based on overexpansion of credit and whether we have now reached the debt ceiling. Both the household debt to income ratio and JRYHUQPHQWGHEWRYHU*'3DYHUDJHQRZLQWKHZRUOG·V advanced economies. Is this the limit? Or is the current need to deleverage just part of the normal credit cycle? Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist, ATF/UniCredit Bank This, then, leads to the next question: are new regulations aimed at changing the debt-driven growth model or at repairing it by stabilizing banks and adjusting policies for the cycle? One way or the other, the regulatory agenda soon to EH IDFHG E\ ÀQDQFLDO ÀUPV LV D GDXQWLQJ RQH UHJXODWRU\ adjustments across nine areas of banking are under discussion globally. It can be expected that the regulatory environment ZLOOUHPDLQLQÁX[IRUVRPHWLPHWRFRPH)XUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQV on the best course of action undoubtedly lie ahead of us $ &RQFHSW IRU )LQDQFLDO 6HFWRU 'HYHORSPHQW $IWHU WKH &ULVLV.. (KWWSZZZDIQN]DWWDFKPHQWVSXEOLVK SGI was developed by the Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Agency two years ago and approved by presidential decree in February 2010. One wonders whether the &RQFHSWwas designed to fundamentally reform Kazakhstan’s economic growth and funding model – for example, by exerting tighter control over foreign funding and imposing penalties for excessively rapid asset growth - or simply to correct weaknesses in the banking system. The &RQFHSW made important recommendations affecting bank capitalization, liquidity, provisions, and in addition to the highlights below, other recommendations to reduce off-balance sheet activities. Some of this has already been put into practice. It will be interesting to see whether the &RQFHSW continues to be a reference point for further regulatory reform and, in SDUWLFXODUKRZLWÀWVLQWR%DVHO,,,ZKLFK.D]DNKVWDQQRZ plans to adopt as of 1 January 2013. It has been suggested, for example, that the so-called k8 and k9 ratios (see below) may be removed. &RQFHSW Highlights: Capital Adequacy For systemically important banks capital adequacy requirements should be adjusted to include not only risk-weighted assets but also Gap analysis, asset concentration, wholesale funding share and loan portfolio growth. If the duration gap is less than one year, minimum capital adequacy remains unchanged at the previous level; if the gap exceeds 3 years, minimum capital adequacy increases several times over. 22 #47/2011 The higher the share of wholesale funding, the higher the requirements Higher capital adequacy requirements must apply to banks with rapid asset growth Liquidity 7KH OLTXLGLW\ RI ÀQDQFLDO FRQJORPHUDWHV PXVW EH calculated on a consolidated basis, including nonÀQDQFLDORUJDQL]DWLRQVWKDWDUHSDUWRIWKHFRQJORPHUDWH Liquidity ratios established for banks must apply. The ratio of total liabilities to deposits should be set between 1.5-1.3. The k8, k9 (foreign funding) ratios must be tightened. Provisions In addition to general and special provisions, statistical provisions should be introduced based on a “hidden ULVNµFRHIÀFLHQWWKDWYDULHVDFFRUGLQJWRW\SHRIDFWLYLW\ and can vary between 0%-5%. Fx loan provisioning will be tightened. #47/2011 +LVWRULFDOO\VSHDNLQJWKLVLVQRWWKHÀUVWUHJXODWRU\UHIRUP for the global banking system. Massive regulatory reform followed the 1873 crisis, as well as the crash of the 1920s-30s. Another major wave of reform is now about to begin that will involve a trade-off between stability and development. The world cannot be made completely safe without suffocating progress. Therefore regulation cannot be perfect and no doubt there will be new bank crises in future. However, regulation must be improved to prevent another banking crash for the same reasons that underlie the current banking crisis. While it is easy to blame bankers alone for the current troubles, it will be more effective if all stakeholders cooperate to bring about change with maximum skill and at minimum cost. "35*$-&4 23 "35*$-&4 5)&#"4&-'3".&803,8)"5%0&4*5.&"/'03 4:45&.*$"--:*.1035"/5'*/"/$*"-*/45*565*0/4 By Ulf Wokurka, Managing Director Deutsche Bank Kazakhstan The upcoming introduction of Basel III has people wondering ZKDW HIIHFWV ZLOO EH IHOW E\ V\VWHPLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV 6,),V DQG ULJKWO\ VR :LWK D JOREDO ÀQDQFLDO system so complex, so interlinked and interdependent on a PXOWLWXGHRISOD\HUVLWLVGLIÀFXOWLIQRWLPSRVVLEOHWRSUHGLFW the effects with a high level of certainty. The situation in Kazakhstan is perhaps a bit less convoluted, but even here many are asking whether the planned changes to the local banking regulations are too stringent, or perhaps not stringent enough. How lawmakers answer that question will be seen in the bumpy year ahead as banks gear up for the January 1, 2013 implementation deadline for the Basel III reforms. It is important to keep in mind, though, that Basel III is just one part of the 15-part broader G-20 regulatory agenda marking an intensive drive to change the regulatory environment for ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV 7KH RWKHU SDUWV VHH JUDSK LQFOXGH prudential measures, transparency, technology, markets, and interconnectivity. The strengthened quality and quantity of capital promises to be a major issue in the reform package, with increased minimums for Tier 1 core capital. Starting in January 2013, capital requirements will jump to 3.5% from their current 2% and will increase to 4.5% by 2015. A capital conservation buffer will then be introduced in 2016, incrementally increasing to 2.5% by 2019. But capital is just one side of the equation. Basel III hits risk-weighted assets as well, especially through the introduction of so-called Credit Valuation Adjustments (CVA). There are three main areas where changes will be made to the management of credit risks. The CVA will see a stand-alone market risk charge for OTC derivatives, which will capture potential mark-to-market losses. Hedges will be limited to a single-name FUHGLW GHIDXOW VZDS (CDS), other equivalent instruments referencing the counterparty directly and index &'6VLIWKHEDVLVLVUHÁHFWHG The second area of changes will be in ([SHFWHG 3RVLWLYH ([SRVXUH(3( which will see the introduction of the “stressed VFHQDULRµ DQG LV VLPLODU WR VWUHVVHG 9DOXH DW 5LVN UHÁHFWLQJ KLJKHU YRODWLOLW\ DQG FRUUHODWLRQV 6WUHVVHG (3( ZLOO UHÁHFW general wrong-way risk as well as collateral disputes, liquidity of collateral, and concentration of collateral types. 7KHWKLUGSDUWLVPLVFHOODQHRXVDQGLQFOXGHVVSHFLÀFZURQJ way risk, changes to collateral, FHQWUDOFRXQWHUSDUWLHV&&3V and correlation. 24 Ulf Wokurka, Managing Director, Deutsche Bank Kazakhstan Overall, these changes have been introduced in order to no longer recognize re-securitizations as eligible collateral or an introduction of higher haircuts for securitizations. The Asset 9DOXH&RUUHODWLRn multiplier results in higher risk weight from the ,QGHSHQGHQW 5HJXODWRU\ %RDUG IRU $XGLWRUV for unregulated DQGODUJHUHJXODWHGÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV&XUUHQWO\SURSRVHG LVDULVNZHLJKWIRUH[SRVXUHVZLWK&&3V The International Liquidity Risk Management framework consists of two parts: the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR). Key drivers for the LCR LQFOXGHDQDUURZGHÀQLWLRQRIOLTXLGDVVHWVDULJLGWUHDWPHQW of FI balances, and additional funding for committed facilities, conduits for asset-back commercial papers, collateral, and so forth. The observation period for this begins 2011 and will be introduced as a minimum standard by 2015. The loan book is the single biggest driver for the NSFR, but other key drivers include substantial term-funding requirements on trading assets other than government debt as well as for undrawn committed facilities. The observation period here will begin in 2012 and be introduced as a minimum standard by 2018. The concept behind these two ratios is right, but the parameters as GHÀQHGGRQRWDOZD\VUHÁHFWUHDOLW\ The question remains: does Basel III go far enough? The answer lies in the ability of regulators and lawmakers to balance regulation with unintended consequences. The impact assessments show a clear need for higher capital and for a more harmonized liquidity framework, but there will be challenges in calibrating this along with further challenges in assessing impact. There are also large differences in public and private sector assessment (see chart). Furthermore, compliance with the larger Basel III requirements implies an ability to cope with country to country requirements. #47/2011 Placing Basel III in Context The European Basel III implementation process is already underway, with proposals for legislation published on July 20, 2011. These were largely aligned with Basel III but also included VRPH (8 VSHFLÀFV 7KH (8 OHJLVODWLYH SURFHVV ZLOO UXQ XQWLO mid-2012, at which point capital requirement regulations and directives will apply to about 8,000 banks in the EU. Therefore, we can expect more adjustments in EU context. The proposal is split into two legal instruments: D5HJXODWLRQIRU3LOODUOHYHUDJHUDWLRDQGOLTXLGLW\UDWLRVDQG E'LUHFWLYHIRU3LOODUVXSHUYLVRU\FRRSHUDWLRQDQG FRXQWHUF\FOLFDOFDSLWDOEXIIHU In total, there are 150 areas of work for the (XURSHDQ%DQNLQJ $XWKRULW\ (%$ between 2012 and 2019. A large number of ELQGLQJ WHFKQLFDO VWDQGDUGV DUH WR EH ÀQDOLVHG E\ with entailing consultation processes. There will be a political focus on harmonizing the capital ratio requirements and the implementation timetable. The sovereign debt crisis evolving these days is likely to raise questions of an overly heavy reliance on government debt and the assumed low risk weightings for such sovereign debt. There will also be parliamentary focus on SME lending and impact on the broader economy. Is Basel III relevant for U.S. banks? Yes, certainly it is relevant given that the U.S. bank supervisory and regulatory agencies are committed to the Basel III reform agenda, but various industry representatives and Congress are raising questions about the need for it. In its current regime, large banks are already running Basel 1 and Basel 2 in parallel. The Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) introduced the “worst of” rule, which states that no new regime can be less tough than the existing one (Collins Amendment). Any downward adjustment of risk weight will require a compensating adjustment. Whereas in Europe Basel 2.5 was in place, it stalled in the U.S. due to ratings requirements as per DFA and related US regulation. As revisions of the new regulations continue to take place, it might be useful to keep a small adaptation of Lao Tzu’s quote in PLQG7KRXJKUHJXODWLRQFDQLQGHHGKHOSWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU WR UHJDLQ FRQÀGHQFH DQG LQ PDQ\ FDVHV JURZ ´PDQDJLQJ D EDQNLVOLNHFRRNLQJDVPDOOÀVK²GRQ·WRYHUGRLWµ "35*$-&4 The risks of unintended consequences of Basel III should not be overlooked: o 5DLVLQJFDSLWDO5HGXFHG5HWXUQRQ(TXLW\5R(YVLQYHVWRU DSSHWLWH McKinsey expects a drop in RoE from 20% to 7% (potential recovery to max. 14% eventually) for top 13 JOREDOÀUPV Mitigating actions will probably include shrinking balance sheets and redundancies R 6WUDWHJ\ ,PSDFW RQ EXVLQHVV PRGHO DQG FRPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ business lines: Risk migration to ‘shadow banking’ 3RWHQWLDOLPSDFWRQULVNPDQDJHPHQWEH\RQGÀQDQFLDO sector R*HRJUDSKLFDOIRRWSULQWRIÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU Regulatory competition between jurisdictions Refocusing on home markets and regions which may include retreat from global ambitions of FIs o Liquidity and funding requirements: Ability of FIs to perform maturity transformation will GHÀQLWHO\EHDIIHFDWHG "35*$-&4 #"4&-*** $3&"5*/("45"#-&3&(6-"503:$-*."5& By Bodo Thöns, Chief Representative Commerzbank Kazakhstan An important question for the future development of the global economy will be the destiny of the debt-driven economy and whether or not this model can survive. In response to the global economic crisis, the Basel Committee on Banking Commission has recently released the latest set of banking regulations known as Basel-III. It is very comprehensive and the largest institutions are in agreement with it, but how the smaller institutions will implement these regulations remains to be seen. There are many cultural and national nuances to consider in its implementation that will affect how well local banks can adapt. /RQJWHUPVWDELOLW\RIERWKWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU DQG WKH LQGLYLGXDO ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQ LV WKH PDLQ REMHFWLYH of the Basel III reforms. This is a program that should be implemented while leaving room for national distinctions. ,QWKHPRVWUHFHQWÀQDQFLDOFULVLVWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUZDVQRW able to cope with the massive market disruptions and several ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV UHOLHG RQ VWDWHDLGHG UHÀQDQFLQJ DQG FDSLWDO$VDUHVXOWVLJQLÀFDQWSROLWLFDOSUHVVXUHDQGFRQVHQVXV to improve bank regulation have led to the development and proposal of substantial changes to the Basel regulatory rules with an aggressive implementation timeline triggering concerns about the impact on both banks and the economy. Changes made in the Basel III publications dated July 16 and July 26, 2010 have relaxed some areas and extended timelines, but this is still a substantial change and there are still many YDULDEOHV WR EH FRQÀUPHG 7KH %DVHO &RPPLWWHH LV VWLOO ´RQ track” working on these issues with G-20 issuing their approval RIWKHÀQDOIUDPHZRUNLQ1RYHPEHU,QVXPPDU\WKHUH DUHQHZFDSLWDOUXOHVSOXVÀUVWWLPHLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHTXLUHPHQWV for Leverage and Liquidity to cope better with future stress situations. The Regulators have four major objectives they are aiming for with new regulations: )LUVW there will be considerable qualitative and quantitative increases to banks’ capital buffer in order to protect against future crises and to prevent false risk incentives for investors. 7KLV FRXOG EH GRQH E\ VLJQLÀFDQWO\ LQFUHDVLQJ FRUH FDSLWDO adding a capital stock loss transfer, additional buffers on core capital, or even adding capital requirements for systemically important major banks. 6HFRQG, the cyclical effects in stress scenarios will be mitigated by implementing either an anti-cyclical capital buffer or a penalty for OTC derivatives. 26 Bodo Thöns, Chief Representative, Commerzbank Kazakhstan 7KLUG GHFRXSOLQJ ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV IURP HDFK RWKHU and from the real economy would be achieved by raising capital adequacy and notable bank obligations and having minimum liquidity ratios for short term liquidity hedging as ZHOODVIRUORQJWHUPFRQJUXHQWUHÀQDQFLQJ )LQDOO\ decoupling from possible calculating and methodological errors would be achieved by implementing DVLPSOLÀHG\HWUREXVW/HYHUDJH5DWLR, disregarding credit conversion factors and OBS-items, and introducing a penalty IRUWUDGHÀQDQFLQJ The possible impact of the impact includes the following: %DODQFHVKHHWZLOOVKULQNGXHWRUHGXFHGFUHGLW transactions /LTXLGDVVHWVZLOOLQFUHDVHOLTXLGLW\EXIIHU 0DWFKHGERRNVZLOOEHUHGXFHGGHEWÀQDQFLQJ 7KHVKDUHRIHTXLW\LQYHVWPHQWVDQGFRUSRUDWHERQGV will decrease (LCR) /RDQPDWXULWLHVZLOOEHFRPHVKRUWHU16)5 7KHSHUFHQWDJHRIGHULYDWLYHVWUDQVDFWLRQVZLOOEH reduced 3HUFHQWDJHRIHTXLW\ZLOOLQFUHDVH 0RQH\PDUNHWVKDUHZLOOGHFUHDVH/&5 6WDEOHGHSRVLWVZLOOULVH/&516)5 5HODWLYHVKDUHRIFDSLWDOPDUNHWÀQDQFLQJLQFUHDVHV16)5 With the so-called Net Stable Funding Ratio, the regulators introduce an instrument limiting maturity transformation possibilities for banks. The maturity pattern of the assets and liabilities side may vary strongly among credit institutions, meaning banks that traditionally maintain a shortage in stable customer deposits will have to reckon with additional expenses #47/2011 #47/2011 business will be at a disadvantage due to new liquidity regulations. In the end, though, only time and the reaction of all competitors will show what will actually happen. We can already see which customer segments and product categories are likely to be affected. Those most affected will LQFOXGH RSHQ OLQHV FRQÀUPHG ORQJWHUP ORDQV KHGJLQJ transactions and derivatives, and bank/insurance loans. Those less affected include short-term loans, bonds, borrowing-base ÀQDQFLQJDQGVWDWHVXSSRUWHGORDQV How greatly the terms of the individual products change in the long term will depend greatly on the competitive position of the given bank, which cannot be predicted at present. Trends indicate that margins for the most affected products may increase while, depending on the competitor, the opposite would hold true for weaker products. Banks with access to the capital market, however, will be able to mitigate the cost effects through things like loan securitization. Over the next year there will be many changes that banks DQG RWKHU ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV KDYH WR ZRUN WKHLU ZD\ through, but with patience and understanding, the system will EHVWUHQJWKHQHGDQGEHFRPHPRUHUHVLVWDQWWRIXWXUHÀQDQFLDO crises. "35*$-&4 to balance this shortage. Additionally, it is foreseeable that there will be increased competition for stable long-term customer deposits. This is expected to trigger a rise in interest rates for long-term investment products, which will in turn increase FRVWV RQ WKH FUHGLW VLGH %DQNV ZLWK D VKRUWWHUP UHÀQDQFLQJ SDWWHUQPLJKWH[SHULHQFHGLIÀFXOWLHVLQFRQWLQXLQJWRSURYLGH VXIÀFLHQWORQJWHUPIXQGV2YHUDOOKRZHYHUVKRUWWHUPEDQN loans will be more attractive than long-term bank loans in the future. What will all this mean for corporate and retail loans? First, a ULVHLQLQWHUHVWUDWHVLVH[SHFWHGDQGZHZLOOVHHWKHSURÀWDELOLW\ of equity-backed products such as loans deteriorate. Banks unwilling to bear the capital adequacy requirements by themselves will most likely begin allocating a small portion to their customers. Meanwhile, companies can ease their fears of a credit crunch which has receded into the background. )RU EDQN ORDQV WKH ÀUVW WZR SRLQWV DOVR KROG WUXH Furthermore, systemically important banks will suffer competitive disadvantages compared to systemically less important banks due to higher capital adequacy requirements. The cost of transactions with large banks will rise 25% due to an increased $VVHW9DOXH&RUUHODWLRQ)DFWRU$9& and interbank 27 $)".#&3&7&/54 "-."5:0$50#&3#64*/&44306/%5"#-& 8*5)64".#"44"%03,&//&5)'"*3'"9 The autumn AmCham Luncheon Business Roundtable series began in the Lotus Restaurant of the Rixos Almaty Hotel with a dialogue with the newly-arrived U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Kenneth J. Fairfax. Ambassador Fairfax spoke about his diplomatic background, his experience with AmChams in other countries, and his eagerness to work with AmCham in Kazakhstan before taking a number of questions from the audience. He encouraged the guests to speak about their companies’ experience in Kazakhstan and to voice any concerns relating to the investment climate. A career U.S. diplomat, Ambassador Fairfax joined the State Department in 1987. He has served in a number of overseas postings, most recently as Minister-Counselor for Economic Affairs in Iraq. His previous positions include Consul*HQHUDOLQ9LHW1DPDQGLQ3RODQG(FRQRPLFV&RXQVHORULQ 8NUDLQH 'HSXW\ 3ULQFLSDO 2IÀFHU LQ &DQDGD (QYLURQPHQW 6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\2IÀFHULQ5XVVLDDQGRWKHUFRQVXODU and economics positions in Korea and Oman. Ambassador Fairfax has also served on the U.S. National Security Council Staff as Director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia and Director IRU 1XFOHDU 0DWHULDOV 6HFXULW\ 3ULRU WR MRLQLQJ WKH 6WDWH 'HSDUWPHQW0U)DLUID[ZDV3UHVLGHQWRIDVPDOOWHFKQRORJ\ company in Silicon Valley. Ambassador Fairfax stressed the importance of AmChams in all the countries where he has been posted, believing that the real work of international relations and foreign policy occurs between individuals, not between governments. Businesses serve as incubators, developing understanding and new knowledge, thus promoting good relations between countries at the same time they promote economic development on both sides of the ocean. The Ambassador pointed also out the importance of Kazakhstan’s strategic location, both historically and today, when the new Silk Road Initiative makes Almaty a strategically important city, serving as a regional trade and ÀQDQFLDOFHQWHUORFDWHGEHWZHHQ0RVFRZ'HOKL/RQGRQDQG 3DULV Benjamin Paine (Chadboure and Parke), Mark Pothast (Nestle) and guests 28 Kenneth Fairfax, U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan 7KH ÁRRU ZDV WKHQ RSHQHG WR TXHVWLRQV IURP OXQFKHRQ guests. The Ambassador’s major points in response are summarized below. $PEDVVDGRU )DLUID[ FODULÀHG .D]DNKVWDQ·V UHFHQW inclusion on the U.S. terrorist watch list, which he termed a misunderstanding over a 12-year old document detailing procedures for individuals who triggered primary and secondary alarm levels. Kazakhstan has been removed from the list. The Customs Union has created challenges for the business community. Some businesses feel the courts are not interpreting the new legislation entailed by the Union equally or fairly. There is a sense that the courts do not understand the new laws or their application. Ambassador Fairfax indicated that the Customs Union legislation may change within the next six months to a year as the Union continues to evolve and harmonization is sought through the World Trade Organization accession process. The technical negotiations for both the Customs Union and WTO will clarify many points that are still hazy, and the courts will be expected to deepen their grasp of the new laws. Ambassador Fairfax listed some of the foreign policy priorities for American-Kazakhstani relations in the years ahead: 1. Further develop the Northern Distribution Network for Afghanistan 2. Continue the US-Kazakhstani nuclear non-proliferation process success 3. Work towards better regional integration and more economic development through USAID 4. Advance commercial relations by diversifying away from the heavy hydro-carbon market 5. Improve the investment climate by working together with AmCham 6. Continue collaboration on counter-terrorism and drug enforcement initiatives 7. Increase the number of exchange programs, building Bolashak and similar exchange programs 8. Create more science and technology exchanges #47/2011 "-."5:#64*/&44306/%5"#-&8*5) )&3*5"(&'06/%"5*0/41&",&3+".&430#&354 Often using raw data from the World Bank, IMF, ADB, OECD, and the 'RLQJ %XVLQHVV 6XUYH\ the index focuses on WHQ GLIIHUHQW ´IUHHGRPVµ WR DUULYH DW D ÀQDO VFRUH 5REHUWV explained that Trade Freedom makes quality judgments about a given country’s degree of non-tariff barriers, considered the most important category because the majority of problems currently originate in international trade. This indicator is used by the Millennium Challenge Corporation in its eligibility assessment for compacts and is therefore published earlier than the others. Monetary Freedom looks at the level of government LQWHUYHQWLRQ LQ WKH HFRQRP\ LQ WHUPV RI LQÁDWLRQ DQG SULFH controls, which send distorted price signals to producers and consumers in their given countries. ,QYHVWPHQW)UHHGRP looks at the treatment of foreign investors by host countries in terms of policies and regulations. Financial Freedom examines whether EDQNV DUH KHDYLO\ LQÁXHQFHG E\ JRYHUQPHQW LQ ZKLFK FDVH credit allocation decisions might be based more on politics than on merit. The Labor Score looks at minimum wages, mandatory severance, and other work tools affecting entrepreneurs. #47/2011 $)".#&3 $)".#&3&7&/54 On October 26, the second October Business Roundtable EURXJKW $P&KDP PHPEHUV WRJHWKHU LQ WKH 5DKDW 3DODFH Dzhambul Restaurant to hear James Roberts, Research Fellow at the Washington DC-based Heritage Foundation's Center for International Trade and Economics. The speaker presented the ,QGH[RI(FRQRPLF)UHHGRPDQLQÁXHQWLDODQQXDO analysis of the global economic climate, co-published by the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. Jim Roberts served in the U.S. State Department for 25 years, has worked on international trade issues, and has coordinated several major U.S. assistance programs, including efforts to reform Eastern Europe economies and to reconstruct Iraq. The index was initiated in the mid-90s when the political right felt that Americans didn’t fully appreciate the prosperity they enjoyed. In response, there was a desire to create an index to analyze that prosperity. The index was developed with the goal of looking at outcomes instead of using a quality/ normative analysis and creating a data-driven product in accordance with Heritage Foundation values (limited government, civil society, low taxes, etc.). As a result, the index focuses on individuals, entrepreneurs, the private sector and the idea that the government should not be involved in the HFRQRP\H[FHSWWRFUHDWHWKHFRQGLWLRQVIRULWWRÁRXULVK7KH ÀQLVKHGSURGXFWKDVJURZQLQWRDQLPSRUWDQWWRRODWWUDFWLQJ hundreds of thousands of website hits every year. James Roberts, Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation Center for International Trade and Economics A score above 60 is considered good, so Kazakhstan with a 2010 score of 62.1 is doing well for itself. It is interesting to QRWHWKDWWKH86VFRUHGURSSHGEHORZIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHLQ the ,QGH[ +RZHYHU WKH REMHFWLYH LVQ·W WR SRLQW ÀQJHUV and condemn people or countries, but rather to encourage them to perform better. Some areas in which Kazakhstan has improved are in Labor and Taxation. Areas where there is URRPIRULPSURYHPHQWDUHLQÁDWLRQPRQHWDU\IUHHGRPDQG corruption. The Kazakhstani government has devoted serious attention to the World Bank’s'RLQJ%XVLQHVV6XUYH\, which has motivated the country to improve its scores. Numerous government LQLWLDWLYHV DUH EHLQJ LPSOHPHQWHG DQG VLJQLÀFDQW WLPH DQG resources are going into these projects. This will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the Heritage Foundation’s ratings as well, but it’s important to look at the long-term results, rather than year-to-year movements. The global economic situation will continue to affect Kazakhstan, but decisions via the Customs Union will also have a long-term effect. James Roberts recently published a paper urging Ukraine to aim for a free-trade agreement with the European Union and not to push for entry into the Customs Unions. The economic EHQHÀWVDUHFOHDUPLOOLRQSHRSOHZLWKFRPSDUDWLYHO\ORZ *'3 LQ WKH &XVWRPV 8QLRQ VSDFH YHUVXV PLOOLRQ SHRSOH ZLWK KLJK *'3 DQG JUHDWHU LQYHVWPHQW SRVVLELOLWLHV LQ WKH European Union. Using the same logic, although Kazakhstan has already joined the Customs Union, it should reach out to the European community as much as possible. 29 2Q 6HSWHPEHU WKH ÀUVW AmCham Sundowner of the autumn business season was held at the Rixos Almaty Hotel, sponsored by Thunderbird Worldwide Kazakhstan (Thunderbird School of Global Management) and the Rixos Hotel, marking AmCham’s upcoming relocation to the Rixos 2IÀFH 7RZHU 7KH HYHQLQJ DWWUDFWHG D UHFRUG WXUQRXW RI members and guests, including a large contingent from the 7KXQGHUELUG*UDQG2SHQLQJFRQIHUHQFH to launch Thunderbird RSHUDWLRQVDQGWKHQHZ7KXQGHUELUGRIÀFHLQ$OPDW\ Thunderbird, the globally known U.S. management school, founded in 1946 in Colorado and operating in the CIS since WKURXJK LWV 0RVFRZ RIÀFH RSHQHG DQ $OPDW\ RIÀFH LQ September as the base for its operations in Central Asia and the broader region. The Thunderbird Grand Opening was held at the Rixos Hotel in a day-long management strategies conference on September 30, attended by Thunderbird executives from abroad. All participants were invited to the AmCham Sundowner afterwards. Offering a range of programs tailored to local content and delivered in a classroom environment, Thunderbird also provides access to its top-ranked executive education and master’s degree programs, delivered both live and on-line. Thunderbird is an impressive new entrant to Kazakhstan’s academic and educational environment. $)".#&3&7&/54 "-."5:4&15&.#&346/%08/&3 "53*904"-."5:)05&- Doris Bradbury, Thunderbird CIS President Christopher Lee, and Rixos General Manager Markus Schmidt open the Sundowner As always, the Rixos provided an elegant setting and a VXPSWXRXVEXIIHWGLQQHUZLWKÀQH)UHQFKZLQHLQLWVOX[XULRXV Brasserie Restaurant. Rixos General Manager Markus Schmidt spoke about the Hotel and the Brasserie, which is continuing to develop its authentic French menu through the hotel’s French executive chef and Thai pastry chef. He also invited guests to visit the luxurious Rixos Royal Spa with its Eastern atmosphere and array of European, Far Eastern, and Hammam-style WKHUDSLHV6KLPPHULQJDQGÀOOHGZLWKOLJKWWKHYHU\(XURSHDQ 5L[RV+RWHOIXOO\OLYHVXSWRLWVÀYHVWDUUDWLQJDQGZLOOEHDQ H[FHOOHQWKRPHEDVHIRUWKHQHZ$P&KDPRIÀFH Doris Bradbury and former Board Member Ivan Doudin (Honeywell) 30 Christopher Lee and Thunderbird staff cut the cake for guests A large cake from the Rixos kitchen marking the Thunderbird Grand Opening was wheeled into the Brasserie Restaurant and served to Sundowner guests. The evening was truly a FHOHEUDWLRQIRUWKHQHZ$P&KDPRIÀFHIRUWKH5L[RV$OPDW\ Hotel with its high standards of hospitality, and for the new 7KXQGHUELUG RIÀFH LQ .D]DNKVWDQ ZLWK LWV LQWHUQDWLRQDO reputation for training top executives for the world’s leading corporations. Leonard Hill, US Consulate General, and Charles Armitage, KIMEP Professor #47/2011 "-."5:)"--08&&/46/%08/&3 "530:"-56-*1)05& The very stylist Dolce Gusto Coffee-Machine comes in a three different models and bold colors and produces four varieties of connoisseur coffee drinks – Cappuccino, Expresso, Latte Macciato, and Lungo. A coffee station at the Sundowner treated guests to sample cups of coffee throughout the evening, and a Dolce Gusto coffee-maker was presented as a lottery SUL]HWRD86&RQVXODURIÀFLDO ADB and US Consulate General Staff with Nestle Lottery Winner Royal Tulip Serving Staff in the Halloween Mood The Royal Tulip Hotel also served as the setting for last year’s Halloween Sundowner, a monopoly on this entertaining holiday. The evening’s buffet featured Halloween-themed dishes such as Uzbek pilaf-stuffed pumpkins and pumpkinshaped desserts. A DJ interspersed Miles Davis’ Pictures of 6SDLQ with selections from Thriller and sound effects from classic Hollywood horror movies. Nokia also presented a gift of its new N9 Smartphone through a specially designed game for all Sundowner guests using their mobile phones to dial responses to a series of TXHVWLRQV7KHÀUVWSHUVRQWRVHQGWKHULJKWFRGHUHVSRQVHIRU all questions won the new Smartphone – an entertaining game that prompted all the guests to take out their mobile phones and send their coded responses to the Nokia team in the Hotel Ballroom. The Nokia N9 Smartphone fuses innovative hardware and software design, combining the latest in camera, navigation, and audio applications with a new swipe feature that returns the user immediately to home. The three home views of the user interface provide fast access to apps usage, staying up WRGDWHZLWKQRWLÀFDWLRQVDQGVRFLDOQHWZRUNVDQGVZLWFKLQJ between activities. For further information, visit ZZZVZLSH nokia.com AmCham Board Member Walter Daniel, Irina Daniel, and Doris Bradbury The Sundowner was supported by Nestle, which is introducing its new Dolce Gusto coffee machine and coffee capsule system to Kazakhstan, and by Nokia, which is presenting the innovative N9 Smartphone to the Kazakhstan market. Both products were presented as lottery prizes to lucky winners among the Sundowner guests. Martin Quirke, Tamara Bocharova, and guests $)".#&3&7&/54 On 31 October 2011 AmCham held its third annual Halloween Sundowner at the Royal Tulip Almaty Hotel, whose large, columned marble Ballroom festooned with Halloween decorations, provided the perfect setting for the occasion. 6WXIIHG VFDUHFURZV LQ FRIÀQV FDQGOHOLW SXPSNLQV FREZHEV skeletal face-painted waiters created the right atmosphere for Halloween night, lit by a full moon outside. The Sundowner was in other ways a typical AmCham Sundowner and the 150 guests networked and enjoyed a very sociable evening. $)".#&3&7&/54 ".$)".5)"/,4(*7*/( "55)&*/5&3$0/5*/&/5"-"-."5:)05&On Thursday, November 24 the annual AmCham Thanksgiving was celebrated, as always, at Almaty’s InterContinental Hotel where Thanksgiving is a rite for AmCham members and their families, bringing autumn to a close and ushering in the winter holiday season. Over 200 guests joined AmCham Board members and the new U.S. $PEDVVDGRU .HQQHWK )DLUID[ and his wife, Nyetta Yarkin, who were joined at the Head Table by 86&RQVXO*HQHUDO0LFKDHO 6QRZGHQ $P&KDP ([HFXWLYH 'LUHFWRU 'RULV %UDGEXU\ %RDUG 6HFUHWDU\:DOWHU'DQLHO3Z&former Board member ,YDQ'RXGLQ +RQH\ZHOO and +6%&&(2/DUV5HMGLQJall accompanied by their spouses and children. Thanksgiving Dinner featured typical American dishes for this harvest celebration – turkey, squash, potatoes, and other root vegetables, salads, pumpkin pie and other deserts. Wine was served throughout dinner and seasonal bouquets adorned each table. Daniel Mota (KCell) in the Pumpkin Patch with young guests Jazz was played throughout the evening by the Chamber’s favorite group, Jazz Session. Mulled wine was served during the pre-dinner cocktail outside the InterContinental Ballroom, while children were led off to play and be entertained by Lan Wu (ADB) with Marla Valdez (SNR Denton) 32 clowns, acrobats, magicians and a host of other entertainers. The children enjoyed their own menu, but were free to come and go, visiting their parents at tables in the Ballroom. One table was composed entirely of children while their parents occupied their own table nearby. After AmCham Board Secretary Walter Daniel welcomed guests, Ambassador Fairfax spoke about the history and meaning of Thanksgiving. Later in the evening Walter Daniel conducted the lottery, assisted by a crowd of children anxious to draw the winning ticket. Outstanding lottery gifts were donated by Air Astana and Etihad Airways (both airlines offering 2 round-trip tickets to any destination worldwide), Avon (a series of delectable holiday gifts), InterContinental Hotel EUXQFK DQG GLQQHU FHUWLÀFDWHV IRU WKH Bosphorus Restaurant and Asian Café), and DHL (worldwide delivery FHUWLÀFDWHV Ambassador Fairfax, Michael Carter, and Ivan Doudin $IWHU WKH ORWWHU\ WKH GDQFH ÁRRU ÀOOHG XS ZLWK FKLOGUHQ and their parents. Children are always the most enthusiastic dancers at AmCham events, but this year teenagers and members joined them until it was time to leave, the next morning ushering in another working day. Children actively participate in the festivities #47/2011 5)"/,4(*7*/(410/4034 "35*$-&4 #47/2011 33 803,*/((3061661%"5&4 ".$)".803,*/((306161%"5& 7KH$P&KDP:RUNLQJ*URXSVDFURVV.D]DNKVWDQFRQWLQXHWREH RQHRIWKHPRVWG\QDPLFEHQHÀWVRIIHUHGWR&KDPEHUPHPEHUVVHHNLQJ WR UHPDLQ DEUHDVW RI GHYHORSPHQWV LQ PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW DUHDV YLWDO WR WKHLU FRUSRUDWH SROLF\ DQG RSHUDWLRQV 7KHVH *URXSV LQFRUSRUDWH WKH VSHFLÀFV RI WKHLU RZQ UHJLRQV ZKHUH SULRULWLHV PD\ GLIIHU IURP RWKHUUHJLRQV7KH$P&KDP(FRQRPLF3ROLF\0DQDJHUWUDYHOVIURP $OPDW\WRDWWHQGJURXSPHHWLQJVLQRWKHUORFDWLRQVWKXVPDLQWDLQLQJ $P&KDP·VRYHUYLHZRI:RUNLQJ*URXSDFWLYLW\ 7KHQXPEHURI*URXSVFRQWLQXHVWRH[SDQGDQGDVRI-DQXDU\ WKH\ZLOOQXPEHU²LQ$OPDW\LQ$W\UDXLQ$VWDQD DQG QHZ *URXSV LQ $NWDX +XPDQ 5HVRXUFHV DQG 7D[ 7KH &KDPEHUFRQVLGHUVLWV:RUNLQJ*URXSVDYLWDOVHUYLFHWRPHPEHUV RQH WKDW DOVR EULQJV DGGHG GHSWK WR $P&KDP DQG LWV DELOLW\ WR DGYRFDWHIRUDQLPSURYHGEXVLQHVVHQYLURQPHQWZLWKWKH*RYHUQPHQW of Kazakhstan. Almaty Human Resources September The HR Working Group examined the LPSRUWDQFH DQG EHQHÀWV RI JUDGLQJ V\VWHPV ZLWKLQ ODUJH corporations with an overview from Denkerst. Microsoft and Air Astana then shared their experience and discussed their own internal grading systems. Whereas Microsoft has a very structured system with mandatory reviews every 18-24 months, Air Astana, as a younger and smaller company, has D PRUH ÁH[LEOH VHW RI JUDGLQJ VFDOHV WKDW DOORZ IRU JURZWK within a single position. Lastly, Ernst & Young gave an update on proposed migration and work permit rules for foreign employees, with exemptions for operators, contractors and sub-contractors working on the Kashagan, Karachaganak and Tengiz projects. November Thunderbird Worldwide took the reins at this HR Working Group meeting, leading the group with a nonstandard format that included a training game they typically use in corporate trainings. The meeting attracted the largest attendance of any AmCham Working Group to date with 42 present. The game was based on the idea of inter-governmental cooperation and the sharing of resources, food and minerals. The lessons learned at the end of the game demonstrated the QHHGIRUHIIHFWLYHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVKRZLQJKRZFRQÁLFWVFDQ occur between departments. In the end, the resources belong to HYHU\RQHLQWKHFRPSDQ\EXWDUHQRWDOZD\VXVHGHIÀFLHQWO\ when departments or individuals focus on protecting their RZQLQWHUHVWVÀUVW Almaty Corporate Social Responsibility September Eurasia Foundation opened the meeting by sharing information about the new $U1DP\]&65$ZDUG competition. AES gave a presentation about their CSR activities, which are typically involved in education, health, and work with orphanages. The company has also engaged in construction of kindergartens and work with war veterans. The Civil Alliance was present to announce the 2011 International 1*2&RQIHUHQFH and the WKDQQXDO&LYLO)RUXP, which attracts 3UHVLGHQW 1D]DUED\HY·V DWWHQWLRQ HYHU\ \HDU 7KH )RUXP works to develop recommendations for the civil sector and other social programs. November IAB was represented by Bakhytnur Otarbayev, who spoke about her recent experiences in Kyrgyzstan at CSR Week. She explored some of the different GHÀQLWLRQV RI &65 XVHG E\ FRPSDQLHV DQG 1*2V DQG WKH LQÁXHQFHWKH\FDQKDYHRQVKDSLQJWKHYLVLRQRIDFRPSDQ\·V 34 CSR activities. British American Tobacco followed this presentation with a presentation on their own CSR activities. As a tobacco company, it was interesting to learn about the BAT approach to CSR, which does not involve promoting the company’s name through these activities. Most CSR projects are delivered through local NGOs for this purpose. Chevron likewise presented on their CSR activities, mainly education and scholarship programs often involving purchasing laboratory equipment for partner universities. They discussed the criteria applied when selecting projects for funding. Chevron outlined their joint program with EFCA to train unemployed women in a trade or skill and the microcredit loans they offer to help launch businesses. Almaty Tax September 7KH ÀUVW PHHWLQJ LQ 6HSWHPEHU LQFOXGHG a presentation by Baker McKenzie on VAT corporate income tax, which covered grounds for deducting VAT, calculating thin capitalization, the concept of related parties, exemptions for gains on shares and stakes, disposing of property outside Kazakhstan, and income under governments with preferential tax treatment. This was followed with a presentation on international taxation by $QJHOV1LND$GYLVRU\. The second meeting in September included another SUHVHQWDWLRQRQ9$7SD\PHQWRI9$7E\FUHGLWVLPSOLÀHG VAT refund procedures, and VAT debt balance refunds, one of the most important changes in the tax code. The &HQWUDO $VLDQ7D[5HVHDUFK&HQWHU then discussed the latest changes in the tax code in detail, centered on individual taxes and general provisions/ tax administration. October This month’s meeting focused on the taxation of foreign companies in Kazakhstan, beginning with a discussion of the criteria for determining residency or nonresidency according to Kazakhstan’s legislation. This included a discussion on the permanent establishment of non-residents. The group also explored international tax treaties on double taxation and taxation of income of non-resident individuals. November Vera Kapatsina of $QJHOV1LND$GYLVRU\presented on the features of transfer pricing legislation in Kazakhstan, EHJLQQLQJ ZLWK D JHQHUDO GHÀQLWLRQ RI WUDQVIHU SULFLQJ 6KH continued with legal sources regulating transfer pricing, areas where it is applied, and methods for determining market price. Ms. Kapatsina then delivered a second presentation devoted to adjustment of taxable imports for VAT purposes in the Customs Union and transfer pricing. Astana Foreign Investment November The US Embassy presented on its support for foreign investment in Kazakhstan: advising Washington on the country’s political and economic situation, as well as advocating for commercial development in Kazakhstan. Samryk Kazyna then spoke about the opening of a new Center IRU7D[5HVHDUFKWKDWZLOOIXOÀOOIRXUREMHFWLYHVFUHDWLRQRID public statistics database, archiving historical work such as previous draft legislation, performing analytical work and soliciting feedback, and monitoring tax revenues/ refunds. Astana Tax Working Group November Deloitte opened the meeting with a presentation on VAT related to the Customs Union and on Customs Duties. The speakers covered issues of documentation, #47/2011 exchange of information between government bodies, and the SUREOHPRIQRQVWDQGDUGL]HGDQGFRQÁLFWLQJLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI GHÀQLWLRQVDQGSURYLVLRQVRIWKHWD[DQGFXVWRPVOHJLVODWLRQ The &HQWUDO$VLDQ7D[5HVHDUFK&HQWHU gave a presentation on the deductibility of notional expenses (charges made from +HDG 2IÀFH WR 3HUPDQHQW (VWDEOLVKPHQW DQG GHPRQVWUDWHG different conceptual approaches using UN and OECD UHVROXWLRQV%HQHÀFLDORZQHUVKLSDQGWKHSUREOHPVWKDWHQVXH DVDUHVXOWRILQWHUSUHWDWLRQUHODWLQJWRÀQDOEHQHÀFLDU\LQFRPH were also discussed. Atyrau Corporate Social Responsibility Working Group September The &LYLO $OOLDQFH RI .D]DNKVWDQ discussed their proposal to create a &RPPXQLW\ 'HYHORSPHQW 3URMHFW in Kazakhstan’s western regions. They also announced the 2011 International NGO Conference and the 5th annual Civil Forum which will be held in early October. The group decided that offering NGO support and training would a worthy investment, but would require further dialogue with the Alliance. TengizChevroil then presented their 3DUWLFLSDWRU\ Needs Assessment, which highlighted areas of greatest CSR need, and their biennial CSR Report. Atyrau Tax Working Group September KPMG opened the meeting with an overview of three pieces of legislation affected by changes in the tax laws - corporate income tax, individual income tax, and VAT for non-resident taxation. There was a proposal to request WKHWD[DXWKRULWLHVWRSXEOLVKVDPSOHVRIWKHDFFHSWHGFHUWLÀFDWHV of residency for each country with which Kazakhstan has signed a double taxation avoidance treaty. November +HOG DV D MRLQW PHHWLQJ ZLWK WKH .30* Business Breakfast, the Central Asian Tax Research Center discussed permanent establishment and some lesser-known situations, for example if a company opens a permanent HVWDEOLVKPHQWEXWQRWDEUDQFKRIÀFH3DUWRIWKHSUHVHQWDWLRQ centered on determining the tax base of a branch/ permanent HVWDEOLVKPHQW LQFOXGLQJ GHGXFWLELOLW\ RI KHDG RIÀFH JHQHUDO administrative and managerial expenses. This is currently an important topic for a number of AmCham members ZKR ÀQG WKDW JRYHUQPHQW WD[ RIÀFLDOV PD\ GLYHUJH LQ WKHLU interpretations of the regulations. Legislation deals with many of these issues, but interpretation of the legislation and implementation are still weak. Atyrau Human Resources Working Group November The meeting opened with introduction of the new Working Group Chair, Derek Toffer, Director of Business Development at Fluor. The most recent work permit legislation covering exemptions for the Karachaganak, Tengiz and Caspian projects was discussed. It is still unclear what the outcome will be for manpower agencies, who were recently banned from contracting staff to companies, but who have instead turned to service contracts, though this doesn’t hold force in Mangystau oblast’. Members were encouraged to sign up for the Foreign Investor Council’s mailing list to stay abreast of new developments in labor ratios and other local content issues. 803,*/((3061661%"5&4 ".$)".&$0/0.*$10-*$:130(3".61%"5& AmCham advocacy has advanced in recent months with WZR$(333URMHFW7HDPVODXQFKLQJWKHLUZRUNWRLPSOHPHQW PDMRU UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV IURP WKH :KLWH 3DSHUV SUHVHQWHG WR WKH 3ULPH 0LQLVWHU·V 2IÀFH LQ $ WKLUG 3URMHFW 7HDP is anticipated to begin working with the Government of Kazakhstan in the spring of 2012. 7KH $(33 :RUNLQJ *URXSV WKDW PHHW WR SURGXFH :KLWH 3DSHUVFRQWDLQLQJSROLF\UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUWKH*RYHUQPHQW of Kazakhstan will resume their work in the spring. $OO RI WKH 3URMHFW 7HDPV DQG $(33 )RUXP FRQIHUHQFHV listed below have evolved from the Working Groups, White 3DSHUV &RQIHUHQFHV DQG 3XEOLFDWLRQV ODXQFKHG LQ under the 86.D]DNKVWDQ 3XEOLF3ULYDWH (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS ,QLWLDWLYH33(3,, later renamed the $P&KDP(FRQRPLF3ROLF\ 3URJUDP $(33 %RWK 33(3, DQG $(33 ZHUH DQG FRQWLQXH to be headed by AmCham on behalf of its members and the broader business community with the objective of improving Kazakhstan’s business environment. AEPP Rule of Law Project Team On October 13 the Rule of Law Project Team headed by Marla Valdez, Managing Partner, SNR Denton joined a Working Group of Deputy Ministers at the Ministry of Justice in Astana to draft new legislation affecting the business community. 7KH$(333URMHFW7HDPLVFXUUHQWO\SUHSDULQJDSROLF\SDSHU for this Working Group containing targeted recommendations for removing tax and administrative matters resulting from government audits from the courts, as well as removing criminal liability for these matters where no criminal intent has been demonstrated. This approach would relieve the courts of the burden of adjudicating complex business disputes and facilitate resolution of cases for companies involved. The AmCham Rule of Law Forum: Protecting Investor Interests on -XQH in Astana formed part of the AmChamMinistry of Justice3URMHFW7HDPZRUNDQGZDVDJUHHGXSRQ with 'HSXW\3ULPH0LQLVWHU2U\QED\HY in February. AEPP Banking Reform Project Team In late October, 1DWLRQDO %DQN RI .D]DNKVWDQ *RYHUQRU Marchenko requested that the AmCham Banking Reform Team assist a team composed by the Bank to study the Basel III recommendations for banking regulatory reform. The objective is to select those recommendations appropriate to Kazakhstan’s banking system for introduction on 1 January 2013. Headed by Ulf Wokurka, Country Director for Deutsche Bank Kazakhstan, the Team has met several times with its counterpart team at the National Bank in Almaty, formally launching its joint work December 9. The project will develop in 3 stages with AmCham present at each stage: presentation of recommendations from the Basel III package, review by Kazakhstan’s commercial banks (37 banks), and drafting new banking legislation. The Financiers Association of Kazakhstan also participates in this process. The AmCham Banking Regulatory Reform Forum: Creating a Stable Financial System in a Volatile Environment on 1RYHPEHU in Almaty formed part of the AmCham -National %DQN3URMHFW7HDPZRUNDQGZDVDJUHHGXSRQZLWK*RYHUQRU Marchenko in October. AEPP Customs and Trade Facilitation (Regional Economic Integration) Project Team The Trade and Customs Project Team will launch their work following the next AmCham Forum conference, planned for the spring of 2012. This conference will be devoted to examining the impact of the 5XVVLD.D]DNKVWDQ%HODUXV&XVWRPV8QLRQand Kazakhstan’s accession to the World Trade Organization. The conference is anticipated to involve participation by Russian specialists on the Customs Union and WTO accession, both processes in which Kazakhstan’s position is closely allied with Russian policy. phone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nvestors' VoiceBOEJOUIFBOOVBMMembership Directory .&.#&34)*1"11-*$"5*0/ $PNQBOZ/BNF *OEVTUSZ"SFB $POUBDU*OEJWJEVBMT 5JUMFT "EESFTT 5FM 'BY &NBJM 1MFBTFJODMVEFVTJOUIFGPMMPXJOH8PSLJOH(SPVQT "MNBUZ 'PSFJHO*OWFTUNFOU )VNBO3FTPVSDFT 5BY $PSQPSBUF4PDJBM3FTQPOTJCMJUZ *OGPSNBUJPOBOE$PNNVOJDBUJPO 5SBEFBOE$VTUPNT "TUBOB "UZSBV "LUBV 'PSFJHO*OWFTUNFOU $PSQPSBUF4PDJBM3FTQPOTJCMJUZ )VNBO3FTPVSDFT 5SBEFBOE$VTUPNT 5BY )VNBO3FTPVSDFT 5BY 5BY 803,*/((30614 8PSLJOH (SPVQT NBEF VQ PG SFQSFTFOUBUJWFT GSPN PVS NFNCFS DPNQBOJFT QSPWJEF DPNNFOU EJTDVTTJPO BOE TVCNJTTJPO PG QPTJUJPOT SFQSFTFOU UIF VOJUFE JOUFSFTUT PG UIF CVTJOFTT DPNNVOJUZ JO ,B[BLITUBO CZ JEFOUJGZJOH DIBMMFOHFT GBDFE CZ JOWFTUPST BOE QSPBDUJWFMZ BEESFTTJOH UIFN &BDI HSPVQ NFFUT SFHVMBSMZ QSPWJEJOH B GPSVN GPSOFUXPSLJOHBOEUIFFYDIBOHFPGJOGPSNBUJPO(SPVQTBSFGPSNFEPOBOBTOFFEFECBTJTBUUIFSFRVFTUPGPVS NFNCFSTIJQ 0''*$& 3JYPT"MNBUZ)PUFM0GGJDF5PXFSUIGMPPS 4FJGVMMJO4USFFU,BCBOCBZ#BUZS "MNBUZ,B[BLITUBO 5FM 'BY (07&3/"/$& 5IF$IBNCFSJTHPWFSOFECZB#PBSEPG%JSFDUPSTFMFDUFEBOOVBMMZGSPN BOECZUIFNFNCFSTIJQ%JSFDUPSTDVSSFOUMZBOEJOUIFQBTUIBWFJODMVEFE JOEJWJEVBMTGSPNUIFGPMMPXJOHDPNQBOZNFNCFST "&4 #BLFS.D,FO[JF #SBDFXFMM(JVMJBOJ #SJUJTI(BT $IBECPVSOF1BSLF $JUJCBOL $POPDP1IJMMJQT $PDB$PMB %FMPJUUF %6$"5 &#3% &SOTU:PVOH (&*OUFSOBUJPOBM0QFSBUJPOT )BMMJCVSUPO )POFZXFMM )4#$ )ZBUU)PUFM *OUFSDPOUJOFOUBM"MNBUZ)PUFM ,1.( -F#PFVG-BNC(SFFOF.BD3BF /FTUMF 1FUSP,B[BLITUBO 1SJDFXBUFSIPVTF$PPQFST 1IJMJQ.PSSJT 3BZUIFPO 4DPU)PMMBOE$#3JDIBSE&MMJT 5FOHJ[DIFWSPJM 64"*% 7JTPS$BQJUBM 8IJUF$BTF $IBNCFS*1QSPWJEFECZ#FFMJOF#VTJOFTT5.XXXCCCFFMJOFL[ %PSJT#SBECVSZ &YFDVUJWF%JSFDUPS %PSJT#SBECVSZ!BNDIBNL[ 3JNNB,B[IFNZBLJOB 'JOBODF%JSFDUPS 3JNNB,B[IFNZBLJOB!BNDIBNL[ +FGGSFZ.BTPO &DPOPNJD1PMJDZ1SPHSBN.BOBHFS +FGGSFZ.BTPO!BNDIBNL[ %JNBTI6NCFUPW $PNNVOJDBUJPOT$PPSEJOBUPS %JNBTI6NCFUPW!BNDIBNL[ &MFOB(PMVCFWB .FNCFSTIJQ&WFOUT$PPSEJOBUPS &MFOB(PMVCFWB!BNDIBNL[ -JEB(PMPWLP "DDPVOUBOU -JEB(PMPWLP!BNDIBNL[ 4POZB#FTTPOPWB "ENJOJTUSBUJWF"TTJTUBOU JOGP!BNDIBNL[ 3&(*0/"-3&13&4&/5"5*7&4 3VTTFMM.BZOBSE 3FTJEFOU3FQSFTFOUBUJWF"UZSBV SNBZOBSE!EFMPJUUFL[ $ISJT%SBLF 3FTJEFOU3FQSFTFOUBUJWF"LUBV DISJTESBLF!TBGBSPJMDPN %BWJE'PSE 3FTJEFOU3FQSFTFOUBUJWF"TUBOB 'PSE@%BWJE!CBIDPN .&.#&34)*1$"5&(03*&4"/%"//6"-'&&4 $PSQPSBUF" $PSQPSBUF $PSQPSBUF® /PO1SPGJU *OEJWJEVBM 8PSMEXJEFSFWFOVFTJOFYDFTTPGNJMMJPO64% 8PSMEXJEFSFWFOVFTCFUXFFONJMMJPO64% 8PSMEXJEFSFWFOVFTOPUFYDFFEJOHNJMMJPO64% 64% 64% 64% 64% 64% $PSQPSBUF NFNCFSTIJQ FOUJUMFT B DPNQBOZ UP EFMFHBUF JOEJWJEVBMT BT $IBNCFS WPUJOH NFNCFST 5IF OVNCFS PG QFSTPOT GSPN FBDI DPNQBOZ QBSUJDJQBUJOHJOXPSLJOHHSPVQTGPSVNTBOECVTJOFTTSPVOEUBCMFTJTVTVBMMZOPUMJNJUFE MOEJWJEVBMNFNCFSTIJQTBSFBWBJMBCMFPOMZVOEFSTQFDJBMDJSDVNTUBODFTGPSQFSTPOTOPUBTTPDJBUFEXJUIBDPNQBOZ "MM BQQMJDBUJPOT GPS NFNCFSTIJQ NVTU CF BQQSPWFE CZ UIF #PBSE PG %JSFDUPST PG UIF "NFSJDBO $IBNCFS PG $PNNFSDF JO ,B[BLITUBO 'PS GVSUIFS JOGPSNBUJPOBCPVUNFNCFSTIJQCFOFGJUTUIFBQQMJDBUJPOQSPDFTTPS*OWFTUPST7PJDFNBHB[JOFQMFBTFDPOUBDUJOGP!BNDIBNL[