Changing Water Cycle Programme (MOES-NERC)
Theme 5
Adaptation Strategy
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Research Agenda/Questions
1. How do we take process-model output into
improved decision making for developing
suitable adaptive strategies in a modified
hydrological regime of a selected basin?
2. How do we incorporate an ecosystem
services approach into the design of the
research agenda for adapting to changes in
the water cycle ?
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Evolutionary
Processes
Resources
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Gravitational
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potential
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Rainfall (Water)
Scale, Hierarchy, Connectivity, Variability & Complexity
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Adaptive strategy for ‘modified’ hydrological
regime using ecosystem services approach
‡ Identify the priority issues and distinctive physical
processes in a given basin (e.g. who is affected by
resource governance decisions?)
‡ Quantify ‘interventions’ already in place and assess the
‘modified’ hydrological regime (compared to baseline)
‡ Assess ‘changes’ and perform ‘sensitivity’ analysis for the
system
‡ Assessment of Provisioning, Regulating and Supporting
ecosystem services (Valuation) – how does CWC affect or
govern these services for different stakeholders?
‡ How to operationalise this approach to support
adaptation (e.g. GIS based technology, social network)?
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Catchment area
(103 km2)
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Kosi barrage
2700 (1963)6518
2036
Paleochannels
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480,000
discharge (m3/s)
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load (mt/yr)
Discharge/Area
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Total length (km)
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Average Annual
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Sediment yield
(mt/y/km2)
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1000
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General trend of migration
(1731-2008)
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‡ High vulnerabiity
environment
‡ Structural approaches
± Sediment loads
± Extreme event frequency
& maximum flows
± Minimum flows
‡ Open basin approaches
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± Weather - early warning
± Broad extent of
potential flooded areas
± Community flood
vulnerability
Changing Water
Cycle Scenario?
Climate models
South Asian Summer monsoon
rainfall : +10% (2100)
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Hydrological models
(a) Positive shift in hydrologic
magnitude (increased Qp)
(b) Modified distribution – (variable
Qp)
both conditions conducive for
avulsions and flooding!!
Need to link up with the
modeling group
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‡ The way in which different
landscape compartments fit
together in the catchment
(Brierley, et al., 2005)
± Longitudinal connectivity
± Lateral connectivity
± Vertical connectivity
Why is it important?
‡ Movement of biophysical fluxes
in the dispersal system
‡ Connectivity shapes the
operation of geomorphic
processes over a range of spatial
and temporal scale
‡ To predict future trajectories of
the system
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Geomorphic complexity
Bank stability
AHP
GIS-based assessment for ecosystem
services and Development of
decision-support system
Analysis
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Channel dynamics
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Lateral connectivity
Riparian vegetation
Hydrology
¾ First order assessment
¾ Field checks
¾ Interpret physical processes
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River Future: Changing Water Cycle
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Thank you
for
your attention!
Ganga Dispersal System: a Genetic Classification
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Landscape Classes
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Challenges :
1. Interfacing of phenomenon that occur on different scales of space and time
2. (Dis)connectivity between and within the landscape classes to be explored