HECKSCHER-OHLIN MODEL © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 1 1. INTRODUCTION © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 2 Drawbacks Ricardian Trade Model § All agents gain from trade in Ricardo. Thus, we would not be able to explain why some agents are against free trade, nor why there are barriers to trade. § § § In Ricardo (as in other trade models) both countries gain from trade. Since there is only one factor of production (labor), it implies that if a country gains, then all individuals in that country also gain. Therefore, no one loses from trade liberalization. § In the Ricardian model there is typically complete specialization (unless in the case of economies of very different sizes). In the real world, specialization is not complete. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 3 The Answer of Heckscher-Ohlin § To explain why some agents are against trade liberalization, we need at least 2 factors of production. § The introduction of 2 factors of production also implies decreasing returns to each factor, which typically results in incomplete specialization. § Basic assumptions Heckscher-Ohlin: § § § § § § Perfect competition 2 countries 2 sectors 2 factors of production (e.g., capital and labor) perfectly mobile across sectors (but not across countries) Identical technologies across countries The only difference between countries is their relative factor endowment. § In this model comparative advantage comes from differences in relative factor endowments. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 4 2. ROAD MAP © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 5 Road Map Theory § Closed Economy § § § § Isoquants and isocosts. Lerner diagram. Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. Rybczynski Theorem. § Open Economy § § § § Trade patterns and Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem. Application of Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. Factor price equalization (FPE). Exceptions to FPE. Exercises § Graphical and numerical applications of the Heckscher-Ohlin model. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 6 3. THEORY LECTURES © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 7 3.1. CLOSED ECONOMY (AUTARKY) © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 8 Assumptions § 2 countries: Spain and Poland. § 2 factors of production (mobile across sectors, but not across countries): capital (K) labor (L) § 2 sectors (identical technologies in both countries): food (relatively L-intensive) computers (relatively K-intensive) § Spain is relatively abundant in capital and Poland is relatively abundant in labor: K / L > K*/ L* © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 9 Production of Food KF An isoquant represents the amount of capital and labor needed to produce a certain number of units of food (for example, the unit isoquant represents the Isocost lines, slope w/r KF/LF quantity of capital and labor needed to produce one unit of food). Unit isoquant An isocost shows all combinations of capital and labor which cost the same total amount. C = rK + wL LA Given w and r, the firm minimizes the cost subject to the constraint of producing one unit. It corresponds to the lowest isocost tangent to the unit isoquant. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera K = C/r - (w/r)L Thus, they are lines with slope -w/r The line which goes from the origin through the tangency point represents the KF/LF ratio used to produce food, given factor prices w/ r. 10 Relationship between Prices and Use of Inputs Start in the equilibrium point 1. KF KF1/LF1 Now increase the cost of capital, r. The optimal amount of inputs shifts to point 2: the firm uses more labor and less capital. 1 That is, KF2/LF2 < KF1/LF1 -(w/r)1 2 KF2/LF2 -(w/r)2 LF © Klaus Desmet y José Riera The same comparative statics take place if the cost of labor, w, decreases. 11 Relationship between Prices and the Relative Use of Inputs w/r Food Computers For each good, food and computer, there exists a relationship between the relative price of inputs, w/r, and the relative use of inputs, K/L Assume that the computer curve is to the right of the food curve: that is, given a ratio w/r, computers use relatively more capital. K/L As we have just seen, an increase in the relative cost of labor (w/r) increases the relative use of capital (K/L). © Klaus Desmet y José Riera In that case, the production of computers is relatively intensive in capital and the production of food is relatively intensive in labor. 12 Determination of the Relative Price of Inputs: the Lerner Diagram K Each isovalue corresponds to an isoquant. For example, if PF = 0.5 , the isovalue of 1 € corresponds to isoquant 2. Isovalue computers (1 €) KC/LC When the price of any good changes, the position of the isovalue curve shifts. Isovalue food (1 €) KF/LF -(w/r) L Isovalue curves: combination of inputs needed to produce a given value of each good, for example, one euro. If the economy produces both goods and there is perfect competition, the cost of producing each good will also be one euro. (ΠF = 0 y ΠC = 0) That is, the lowest possible cost that allows us to produce one euro of each of the goods is the same. Thus, producing 1 euro of each of the goods must happen on the same isocost, rKF + wLF = rKC + wLC There is a UNIQUE isocost, tangent to the two isovalue curves. The slope of this isocost is the relative price of inputs, -w/r. Then, for each PF/PC we can find w/r (see next slide). © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 13 Relationship between Relative Prices and Inputs: the Lerner Diagram Assume that PC = 1. This normalization is the same as representing all units in terms of units of computers. K (1/r)2 CC (1/r)1 The initial situation is represented by the red curves. The relative price of inputs is (w/r)1. -(w/r)1 Note: since the isocost is wL+rK=1, the vertical intercept has slope (1/r)1 and the horizontal (1/w)1. Keeping PC=1, an increase in PF/PC represents an increase in PF. To produce 1 € of food, we need less capital and labor, so that the isovalue shifts from FF1 to FF2. The isocost also changes: (w/r)2 > (w/r)1. Moreover, the change in the intercepts implies that: w2 > w1 and r2 < r1. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera -(w/r)2 FF1 FF2 (1/w)2 (1/w)1 L Given the normalization, an increase in PF/PC means that the wage buys more food and the rental rate buys less food. 14 Stolper-Samuelson Theorem § In the above exercise, we saw that an increase in PF/PC implies that the wage buys more food and the rental rate buys less food. § If we had chosen the other possible normalization (PF=1), we would have found that an increase in PF/PC (which would be equivalent to a decrease in PC) implies that the wage buys more computers and the rental rate buys less computers. § That is, an increase in PF/PC allows the workers to buy more of both goods and the capital owners to buy less of both goods. STOLPER SAMUELSON THEOREM An increase in the relative price of a good will increase the real return to the factor used intensively in the production of that good, and will decrease the real return to the other factor. IMPORTANT: The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem relates changes in the relative price of goods to changes in the REAL return of factors (and not simply to the absolute price and/or the relative price of factors). © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 15 Alternative Analysis of Stolper-Samuelson w/r Food Computers (w/r)2 (w/r)1 PF/PC (PF/PC)2 (PF/PC)1 The left-hand side panel represents the relationship between the relative price of goods and factors. The right-hand side panel represents the relationship between the relative price of factors and their relative use. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera (KF/LF)1 (KF/LF)2 (KC/LC)1 (KC/LC)2 K/L An increase in the relative price of the good intensive in labor (food) increases the relative price of labor (i.e., w/r). Moreover, the production of each good becomes more intensive in capital: KF/LF and KC/LC increase. 16 Alternative Analysis of Stolper-Samuelson. § In the last figure we saw that an increase in the relative price of food (PF/PC), raises the relative reward of labor (w/r), which increases the optimal (K/L) ratio in both sectors. § In a competitive economy, nominal wages are equalized in both sectors: w = PFMPLF = PCMPLC § We define the “real” wage in terms of food as ωF= w / PF = MPLF § And the real wage in terms of computers as ωC= w / PC = MPLC • An increase in PF/PC , raises KF/LF and therefore increases both MPLF, and ωF. For the same reason, ωS also rises. Thus, the real wage rises. • Similarly, one can prove than an increase in PF/PC, reduces the real rental rate of capital. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 17 Allocation of Factors of Production LC OC The width of the box represents the amount of labor available in the economy and the height represents the capital. Each point in the box represents a possible allocation of inputs between sectors. KF + KC = K LF + L C = L F KF KC C OF LF We have seen how the relative price of factors and the ratio K/L was determined for each good. Now we investigate how they are allocated between sectors. Given PF/PC, we know KF/LF and KC/LC. From the origin OF we draw a line with slope KF/LF and from OC we draw a line with slope KC/LC. The intersection between both lines is the allocation of inputs in this economy. Question: Can we end up outside the box? © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 18 Introduction to the Rybczynski Theorem L 2C O2C An increase in the endowment of capital, raises the height of the box. The origin of the 1 O C production of computers is now O2C. L 1C Keeping PF/PC constant, the line with slope KC/LC shifts up in a parallel fashion. F 1 K1F K2F 2 C1 L 2F C K2C C2 OF K1 L 1F In the new equilibrium (point 2), more of both inputs are used in the production of computers. Thus, the production of computers increases. Less of both inputs are devoted to the production of food. So, its production decreases. In this exercise we see how an increase in the endowment of capital changes the allocation of inputs in each sector and the production of both goods. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 19 Alternative Analysis of Rybczynski QC Y2C Y1C Another way of interpreting an increase in the endowment of capital is through the production possibility frontier. 2 Slope -(PF/PC) 1 Y2F Y1F © Klaus Desmet y José Riera An increase in the endowment of capital causes the production possibility frontier to move outward, but more in the direction of computers than in the direction of food. There is a biased expansion of the production possibility frontier. QF Given PF/PC, an increase in the endowment of capital increases the production of computers and decreases the production of food. 20 Rybczynski Theorem RYBCZYNSKI THEOREM Given relative prices, an increase in a factor endowment will increase output in the sector that uses that factor intensively, and will decrease output in the other sector. Given relative prices, an increase in the relative endowment of a factor, will relatively increase output in the sector that uses that factor intensively. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 21 Production Possibility Frontiers Remember that we have two countries (Spain and Poland). YC The only difference is that Spain is relatively capital abundant: K/L > K*/L*. The production possibility frontiers are such that, given prices, Spain (Poland) produces relatively more computers (food). This is an illustration of the Rybczynski Theorem. Y*C Production possibility frontier in Spain YF Production possibility froniter in Poland Y*F © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 22 Relative Prices under Autarky Relative supply: the relative shapes of the production possibility frontiers of both countries imply that the relative supply of food in Poland is higher than in Spain. PF /PC RS RS* PF /PC Relative demand: if preferences are identical and homothetic, then the relative demand is the same in both countries. P*F /P*C RD=RD* YF /YC Prices under autarky: the relative price of food is lower in Poland: Y*F /Y*C (PF /PC)A > (P*F /P*C)A © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 23 3.2. OPEN ECONOMY (FREE TRADE) © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 24 Relative Prices under Free Trade Relative supply: will be between RS and RS* (depending on the relative size of both countries) PF /PC RS RSFT RS* PF /PC Relative demand: the same (PF/PC)FT P*F /P*C RD=RD*=RDFT Relative prices: relative prices will converge (PF /PC)A ≥ (P*F /P*C)FT ≥ (P*F /P*C)A Pattern of trade: given that (PF /PC Poland exports food. )A > YF /YC (P*F /P*C )A, Y*F /Y*C Spain exports computers and HECKSCHER-OHLIN THEOREM Each country exports that good which intensively uses the factor the country is relatively abundant with. Gains from trade: the terms of trade of each country improves, thus, both countries gain from trade. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 25 Gains from Trade Autarky: Production (YA) equals consumption (CA) SPAIN QC YFT CFT YA=CA Free Trade: The relative price PF/PC falls. - (PF/PC)FT CA - (PF/PC)A QF © Klaus Desmet y José Riera Spain produces more computers than before (the production point, YFT, moves up). The new consumption point is on a higher indifference curve. Spain consumes more food (substitution and wealth effect go in the same direction). The change in the consumption of computers is indeterminate (substitution and wealth effects go in opposite directions). 26 Income Distribution § After trade liberalization, the relative price of food falls (rises) in Spain (Poland). § The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem implies that: § Spain: real wage falls and rental rate rises. § Poland: real wage rises and rental rate falls § Workers in Spain will be against trade. In Poland capital owners will be against. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 27 Income Distribution: Application § From the mid 70s onwards, the wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers has steadily increased in several countries. § Can we blame globalization? Might this be due to the increased trade with developing and emerging countries? § To see this, use the Heckscher-Ohlin model with skilled and unskilled labor as the two factors of production (instead of capital and labor). § In this case, the Heckscher-Ohlin model would predict that wage inequality increases in the developed world, and decreases in developing and emerging countries. § The former has happened, but not the latter. Should we conclude that globalization does not matter? (Note: there are papers that rationalize these trends). © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 28 Factor Price Equalization (FPE) Food w/r Computers (w/r) (w/r)LC (w*/r*) PF/PC (PF/PC) (P*F/P*C) (PF/PC)FT (K*F/L*F) (KF/LF) (KF/LF)FT (K*C/L*C) (KC/LC) K/L (KC/LC)FT Convergence in price of goods, due to free trade, implies convergence in relative factor returns (w/r) and relative use of factors in each sector (KF/LF and KC/LC). © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 29 FPE § In the last figure we saw that free trade brings about equalization of relative factor prices (w/r) and relative use of factors (KA/LA y KS/LS). § It is straighforward to see that absolute factor prices also converge. Remember that nominal wages can be written as w = PFMPLF = PCMPLC w* = P*FMPL*F = P*CMPL*C § With free trade, PF=P*F and PC=P*C, and since KF/LF=K*F/L*F and KC/LC=K*C/L*C, it follows that PFMPLF = P*FMPL*F and PCMPLC,= P*CMPL*C , so that w = w* § Obviously, given that prices and nominal wages converge, real wages also converge: ω= ω* § Following the same steps, it is easy to see that the rental rate of capital also converges, both in real and nominal terms. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 30 Another Look at FPE K 1/r =1/r* CC=CC* KC/LC =K*C/L*C Since both countries share the same technologies and face the same prices, the isovalue curves for computers and food are also the same. KF/LF =K*F/L*F -(w/r)W 1/w=1/w* FF=FF* If both countries produce both goods (incomplete specialization), the isocost that is tangent to the two isovalue curves is the same in both economies. Remember that the intercept of the isocost with the y-axis is 1/r =1/r* and with the x-axis is 1/w=1/w*. Therefore, w = w* y r = r*. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 31 FPE Theorem FPE THEOREM When there are no barriers to trade, technologies are identical and both countries produce both goods, we have factor price equalization. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 32 Factor Mobility and Goods Mobility Compare the following cases § Case 1: We allow factor mobility across countries but not trade in goods. § We know that in autarky ω > ω* (real wage) and ρ < ρ* (real return to capital). § With factor mobility, workers move to Spain and capital moves to Poland. § In equilibrium, ω = ω* and ρ = ρ* (this happens when K/L = K*/L*). § Case 2: We allow trade in goods but factors cannot move across countries. § We have seen that trade in goods brings about FPE, ω = ω* y ρ = ρ*, WITHOUT THE NEED OF FACTOR MOBILITY. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 33 Factor Mobility and Goods Mobility Intuition of FPE Capital POLAND SPAIN Labor Capital Computers POLAND SPAIN Food Labor Spain, by exporting computers is also “exporting” capital to Poland, since computers are capital-intensive. The same is true for labor and food for Poland. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 34 FPE Exceptions We obtain FPE if the following conditions hold: 1. Both countries produce both goods. 2. Identical technologies across countries. 3. No barriers to trade. If any of these three assumptions does not hold, we will not obtain FPE. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 35 One Country Only Produces One Good K*/L* w/r Food Computers (w/r) (w/r)FT (w*/r*)FT (w*/r*) PF/PC (PF/PC) (P*F/P*C) (PF/PC)FT (K*F/L*F)FT (KC/LC)FT K/L (KF/LF)FT Let us assume that the capital endowment in Poland is very low, that is, K*/L* is very small. Remember that KF*/LF* ≤ K*/L* ≤ KC*/LC*. (Otherwise, one factor would be unemployed) When there is convergence in goods prices, the relative wages in Poland increase, and so do the capital ratios KF*/LF* and KC*/LC*. In order to have the weighted sum of KF*/LF* and KC*/LC* add up to K*/L*, the economy increases the production of food and decreases the production of computers. When the economy reaches KF*/LF* = K*/L*, it becomes completely specialized in food. At that point, relative wages stop converging. However, goods prices do converge. Note: In the left-hand side panel we assume production of both goods. The right-hand side panel doesn’t hinge on that assumption. When Poland stops prodcuing computers, the left-hand side panel isn’t longer useful to determine wages. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 36 One Country Produces Only One Good K With free trade, the isovalue curves are CC and FF. To produce both goods we need an isocost that is tangent to both curves. (KS /LS) CC A country needs to have capital ratios between KC /LC and KF /LF to produce both goods (cone of diversification). FF Spain is within the cone of diversification, and therefore produces both goods, so that the relative wage is w/r. (K/L) 1 Poland is outside the cone of diversification (see K*/L*), it only produces food and the relative wage is w*/r*. (KF/LF) (K*/L*) 1 Using the same reasoning as before, it is easy to show that w < w*, r > r*, ω < ω* and ρ > ρ*. -(w/r) -(w*/r*) L © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 37 Different Technologies K Assume that Spain has a technology 1.x times the technology of Poland in both sectors. CC* 1/r* CC (KC /LC) In this case, Poland needs 1.x times the capital and labor of Spain to produce the same. 1/r Thus, the isovalue curves of Poland are 1.x times the ones of Spain. (KF/LF) In equilbrium, w > w* and r > r*. FF* FF 1/w -(w/r) © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 1/w* Actually, w = 1.x w* and r = 1.x r L 38 Barriers to Trade If there are transportation costs and/or other barriers to trade, the price of goods will not converge. Thus, factor returns will not converge either. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 39 4. EXERCISES © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 40 Heckscher-Ohlin Problem Set See Problem Set “Heckscher-Ohlin Model”. © Klaus Desmet y José Riera 41