MERGER ANALYSIS UNDER THE U.S. ANTITRUST LAWS William Blumenthal * King & Spalding Washington, D.C. This outline summarizes the basic principles of merger analysis under the federal antitrust laws. It is organized as follows: Part I summarizes the text and purpose of Section 7 of the Clayton Act, the principal provision governing mergers, and it briefly identifies other relevant antitrust provisions. Part II addresses standards governing market definition in merger matters. Part III identifies issues in identifying market participants and measuring the extent of their participation. Part IV addresses the standards governing the assessment of the competitive effects of horizontal mergers. Part V addresses entry considerations, and Part VI addresses efficiency considerations. Part VII addresses issues presented by transactions involving failing firms. Part VIII addresses the standards governing the assessment of the competitive effects of vertical mergers. Finally, Part IX reviews the requirements for filing premerger notification under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976. I. STATUTORY FOUNDATIONS OF U.S. MERGER LAW A. Section 7 of the Clayton Act The principal federal statutory provision governing mergers is Section 7 of the Clayton Act, 15 U.S.C. § 18, which provides: No person engaged in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce shall acquire, directly or indirectly, the whole or any part of the stock or other share capital and no person subject to the jurisdiction of the Federal Trade Commission shall acquire the whole or any part of the assets of another person engaged also in commerce or in any activity affecting commerce, where in any line of commerce or in any activity affecting commerce in any section of the country, the effect of such acquisition may be substantially to lessen competition, or tend to create a monopoly. The text of Section 7 is constitutional in scope. Nearly all substantive merger law is derived from this single sentence. For example, the extensive body of law governing market definition derives from the statute’s references to “line of commerce” and “section of the country.” * The author is grateful to Peter M. Todaro and Kathryn E. Walsh, also of the Washington office of King & Spalding, for providing assistance in compiling and updating this outline from the author’s prior materials. B. Other Statutes Although most merger enforcement actions are based on Section 7 of the Clayton Act, mergers may also be challenged under Section 1 or Section 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. §§ 1-2, or Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, 15 U.S.C. § 45. 1. Section 1 of the Sherman Act declares, “Every contract, combination in the form of trust or other, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce[,] . . .” to be illegal. 15 U.S.C. § 1; see, e.g., United States v. First Nat’l Bank & Trust Co. of Lexington, 376 U.S. 665, 671-72 (1964); United States v. Rockford Memorial Corp., 898 F.2d 1278, 1281-82 (7th Cir. 1990). 2. Section 2 of the Sherman Act makes it illegal to “monopolize, or attempt to monopolize, or combine or conspire . . . to monopolize. . . .” 15 U.S.C. § 2; see, e.g., United States v. Grinnell Corp., 384 U.S. 563, 575-76 (1966). 3. Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act prohibits “[u]nfair methods of competition . . . and unfair or deceptive acts or practices. . . .” 15 U.S.C. § 45; see, e.g., In re American Medical Int’l, 104 F.T.C. 1, 110 (1984). C. Agency Guidelines 1. The 1992 Merger Guidelines issued by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission are the most recent comprehensive statement outlining the agencies’ analysis of horizontal mergers. 2. The Department’s 1984 Merger Guidelines are the agencies’ most recent comprehensive statement on evaluating vertical mergers, but they should be “read in the context of” the 1992 Guidelines. U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission Statement Accompanying Release of Revised Merger Guidelines (Apr. 2, 1992), reprinted in 2 ABA ANTITRUST SECTION, ANTITRUST LAW DEVELOPMENTS 1368 (3d ed. 1992). D. Purpose of Section 7 1. Commentators offer differing views on the purpose of Section 7 and of the antitrust laws more generally. See ABA ANTITRUST SECTION, MONOGRAPH NO. 12, HORIZONTAL MERGERS: LAW AND POLICY 6-26 (1986) [hereinafter ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH]. The views fall along a spectrum. “One pole is represented by the view that the sole purpose of the antitrust laws is to maximize economic efficiency.” Id. at 7 (collecting authority at n.27). The opposite pole is represented by the view that the antitrust laws are based upon both economic and sociopolitical values. See id. at 7-9 (collecting authority). An intermediate position reflects the view that the antitrust laws are based upon economic values, but that those values include factors beyond efficiency, most notably distributional factors such as the prevention of wealth transfers from consumers to producers. See id. at 8 -2- n.30. Resolution of the purpose of the statute is crucial, because “[o]nly when the issue of goals has been settled is it possible to frame a coherent body of substantive rules.” R. BORK, THE ANTITRUST PARADOX 50 (1978). 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “The unifying theme of the Guidelines is that mergers should not be permitted to create or enhance market power or to facilitate its exercise. . . . [T]he result of the exercise of market power is a transfer of wealth from buyers to sellers or a misallocation of resources.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 0.1. 3. At the time of the 1992 Guidelines’ release, some individuals within the enforcement agencies appeared to disagree over the purpose of Section 7 as reflected in the preceding paragraph. a. The FTC staff wrote: “The 1992 Guidelines clarify that mergers may be condemned either because they lead to a misallocation of resources (efficiencies) or a transfer of wealth from buyers to sellers (welfare of consumers).” FTC Bureau of Competition Pocket Guide, reprinted in FTC: WATCH No. 364, at 2 (Apr. 6, 1992) [hereinafter FTC Pocket Guide]. b. The Guidelines’ provision, however, is open to another interpretation: mergers may be condemned only because of adverse effects on economic efficiency, which effects result in resource misallocation and typically (but not invariably) coincide with wealth transfers. Under this view, wealth transfers would not provide an independent basis for challenge. This interpretation was offered by at least some persons within the Antitrust Division. 4. The difference of interpretation will not matter with respect to many transactions, since adverse efficiency effects are usually accompanied by wealth transfers. The difference may matter, however, with respect to markets characterized by very low demand elasticity; and it will matter fundamentally to the interpretation of certain other provisions of the Guidelines -- most notably, whether efficiency gains from a merger must be passed on to consumers, see infra part VI.B. E. Motivation of Private Conduct 1. Section 7 is a predictive statute, see, e.g, United States v. General Dynamics Corp., 415 U.S. 486, 501 (1974) (“companies that have controlled sufficiently large shares of a concentrated market are barred from merger by § 7, not because of their past acts, but because their past performances imply an ability to continue to dominate”), and guidelines or legal rules intended to implement Section 7 necessarily must attempt to predict the effect of a transaction upon future economic performance. Such prediction requires a vision of how markets work -- an economic model, whether explicit or implicit. Such a vision/model, in turn, requires certain assumptions about how people behave. -3- 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “Throughout the Guidelines, the analysis is focused on whether consumers or producers ‘likely would’ take certain actions, that is, whether the action is in the actor’s economic interest.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 0.1. 3. The Guidelines’ approach is consistent with the common assumption in economic theory that persons and businesses are rational and profit-maximizing. That assumption has increasingly come under attack or has been relaxed, however, in much of modern economic theory. The theory over the past decade has made great strides in explaining what has been evident to practitioners for a long time -- that corporate clients often act in a manner that appears irrational or inconsistent with profit maximization. a. Thus, the so called “principal-agent literature” explains that in hierarchies such as corporations, managers will act in their personal interests rather than the enterprises’ interests unless appropriate incentive structures are devised -- often a difficult task. As a result, corporations may act in a manner that is irrational or nonmaximizing from the corporation’s perspective. See, e.g, J. Stiglitz, Principal and Agent, in ALLOCATION, INFORMATION, AND MARKETS (1989) (collecting authority); B. Holmstrom & J. Tirole, The Theory of the Firm, in 1 HANDBOOK OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION 86-106 (1989) (same). b. Because information is costly to obtain and process, persons may act in a manner that is “boundedly rational” -- that is, they intend to be rational, but are limited in the effort. See, e.g., D. KREPS, GAME THEORY AND ECONOMIC MODELING ch. 6 (1990). Cognitive biases affect judgment. See M. NEALE & M. BAZERMAN, COGNITION AND RATIONALITY IN NEGOTIATION (1991). c. Game theory, upon which the Guidelines’ competitive effects section is largely based, see infra part IV, increasingly is making efforts to model “irrationality.” See, e.g., D. KREPS, A COURSE IN MICROECONOMIC THEORY 480-89 (1990); see also R. THALER, QUASI RATIONAL ECONOMICS (1991). 4. As a theoretical matter, then, notwithstanding the Guidelines’ underlying assumption, market behavior may not be based on “whether the action is in the actor’s economic interest,” 1992 GUIDELINES § 0.1. As an evidentiary matter, predicting whether “consumers or producers ‘likely would’ take certain actions,” id., is extremely difficult without the benefit of behavioral assumptions and therefore is open to substantial dispute. II. MARKET DEFINITION Because Section 7 is violated only by transactions that may substantially lessen competition “in any line of commerce . . . in any section of the country,” a merger must be examined in terms of its likely effect within a “relevant market” having both a product and a geographic dimension. See Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U.S. 294, 324 (1962). The Supreme Court has held that “[d]etermination of the relevant market is a necessary predicate to a finding of a violation of -4- the Clayton Act because . . . [s]ubstantiality can be determined only in terms of the market affected.” United States v. E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., 353 U.S. 586, 593 (1957). A. Demand Substitution 1. Demand substitution is the substitution by consumers of one product for another product. Courts have long recognized demand substitution as the leading basis for product market definition. See Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U.S. 294, 325 (1962) (“the outer boundaries of a product market are determined by the reasonable interchangeability of use or the cross-elasticity of demand between the product itself and substitutes for it”); United States v. E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. (Cellophane), 351 U.S. 377, 394-95 (1956) (products that are “reasonably interchangeable by consumers for the same purposes” are in the same market.). 2. There are differing visions as to how demand substitution should be taken into account operationally. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 89-110. a. Most commonly, demand substitution is measured by the cross-elasticity of demand which compares the change in the quantity demanded of one product given a price change of another product. If a change in the price of one product causes a large change in the demand of another product, the two products have a high crosselasticity of demand and are treated as being in a single market. See id. at 89-96. b. The geographic component of market definition is often defined by looking at the historical insularity of a given geographic area for a specific group of products. Under the Elzinga-Hogarty Test, a market is measured by determining both the inflows of products (where products consumed within the area are produced) and the outflows of products (where products produced within the area are consumed). A market is properly defined when little of the specified group of products flows in or out of the specified geographic area. See id. at 96-101. Although questioned by many, this approach remains common in hospital merger cases. See, e.g., FTC v. Freeman Hospital, 69 F.3d 260 (8th Cir. 1995). c. A market can also be defined as a group of products and corresponding geographic area within which prices tend toward equality. Close price relationships are evidence that products or geographic markets are in the same market. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 102-05. d. Finally, markets can be defined by looking at the ability of a hypothetical monopolist to exert market power (e.g., raise prices profitably). If a price increase across a specified group of products would be unprofitable because enough consumers would switch to other products outside the group, then the specified group does not constitute a market. If, on the other hand, the price increase across a specified group would be profitable for the hypothetical monopolist, then the group constitutes a market. See id. at 105-10. The 1992 Guidelines’ approach of looking at -5- the effect of a “‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price” relies on this method. B. Supply Substitution 1. Although there is no question that demand substitution is a fundamental consideration in market definition, there is substantial debate as to whether supply substitution should also be considered in market definition. a. Authority is split into three camps: (i) define the relevant market by reference to both supply-side and demand-side criteria; (ii) define the relevant market solely by reference to demand-side criteria, but consider supply substitution in identifying market participants and measuring the market; and (iii) define and measure the relevant market solely by reference to demand substitution. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 110-16. The 1992 Guidelines adopted approach (ii). b. The three approaches can lead to substantial differences in measured market concentration. Consider this example: Widgets and gizmos are used for entirely unrelated purposes, but can sometimes be produced in the same facilities, depending on the supplier’s particular production process. Firm R, which produces widgets in a dedicated facility, proposes to merge with Firm S, which produces widgets and gizmos in a common facility. Firms P and Q also produce widgets in dedicated facilities. Firm T also produces widgets and gizmos in a common facility. Firms U and V currently produce only widgets, but could immediately shift to the production of gizmos in common facilities. Firms W, X, and Y produce only gizmos in dedicated facilities. In assessing the effect of the merger of Firms R and S on widgets, what is the relevant product? Under approach (i), the product would probably be both widgets and gizmos because of the common production facilities’ and all firms would be in the market. Under approach (ii), the product would be widgets only, and Firms P-V would be in the market. Under approach (iii), the product would be widgets only, and Firms P-T would be in the market. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “Market definition focuses solely on demand substitution factors -- i.e., possible consumer responses. Supply substitution factors -- i.e., possible production responses -- are considered elsewhere in the Guidelines in the identification of firms that participate in the relevant market and the analysis of entry.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.0. 3. Courts have recognized supply substitution as a factor in market definition. See, e.g., Brown Shoe, 370 U.S. at 325 n.42 (“cross-elasticity of production facilities may also be an important factor in defining a product market”); Carter Hawley Hale Stores, Inc. v. Limited, Inc., 587 F. Supp 246, 253 (C.D. Cal. 1984), aff’d, 760 F.2d 945 (9th Cir. 1985) (garment manufacturer can easily switch production to different quality and sizes of clothing). -6- C. Threshold Levels: Magnitude of Price Increase 1. Market definition requires an analysis of substitution possibilities. The scope of substitution possibilities, in turn, depends on relative price levels: “at a high enough price even poor substitutes look good to the consumer,” R. POSNER, ANTITRUST LAW: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE 128 (1976). Under the 1992 Guidelines’ framework, market definition is performed by considering substitution in response to a hypothetical price increase. The magnitude of the price increase will materially affect the extent to which substitution occurs. See generally ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 118. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “In attempting to determine objectively the effect of a ‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price, the Agency, in most contexts, will use a price increase of five percent. . . . However, what constitutes a ‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price will depend on the nature of the industry, and the Agency at times may use a price increase that is larger or smaller than five percent.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.11; see also id. § 1.21 (for geographic market definition, “what constitutes a ‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price . . . will be determined in the same way” as for product market definition). 3. The Guidelines allow for deviation from five percent, but do not provide any standard by which to determine when a different percentage is appropriate or what it should be. Under the Guidelines, the decisionmaker has substantial discretion, the exercise of which may materially affect the contours of the market. At a low percentage increase, few products will be substitutes. At a high percentage increase, many products will be. 4. In United States v. Engelhard, 970 F. Supp. 1463 (M.D. Ga.), aff’d, 126 F.3d 1302 (11th Cir. 1997), the court rejected the government’s use of five to ten percent as a price increase threshold because the did not provide an accurate picture of the relevant product market for attapulgite clay. Some customers had stated that they would not switch clays if their suppliers raised prices by five percent, since the clay was a low percentage of their overall product cost and switching clays involved potentially significant qualification costs. 970 F. Supp. at 1467. The court denied the government’s motion for injunctive relief. D. Threshold Levels: Uniformity of Price Increase 1. An issue to which little thought has previously been given in the cases and commentary was raised (perhaps inadvertently) by one sentence in the 1992 Guidelines -whether the percentage price increase, once selected, is to be applied uniformly across all products in the market, or whether it is to be simply the average of a set of price increases that will be applied at varying levels to different products in the market. Suppose, for example, that the “small but significant and nontransitory” increase to be used in evaluating a particular transaction in the widget market is five percent. Under the market definition exercise, do we hypothesize that the price of all widgets will increase five percent? Or do we hypothesize that widget producers will apply varying percentages, some more and some -7- less than five percent, such that the producers maximize profits and the price increase across the market averages five percent? 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “[T]he hypothetical monopolist will be assumed to pursue maximum profits in deciding whether to raise the prices of any or all of the additional products under its control.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.11; see also id. § 1.21 (similar standard with respect to geographic locations). 3. This provision was addressed by Commissioner Azcuenaga in her statement dissenting from the issuance of the Guidelines: The test used to identify the relevant market seems changed in a way that may be difficult to implement and may make market definition less predictable. The 1984 Guidelines hypothesized a uniform price increase to identify the market. Under the new Guidelines, the price increase is not necessarily uniform. Instead, the hypothetical monopolist, ‘to pursue maximum profits,’ may increase prices for some products and for some locales more than for others. . . . Requiring a determination of the pricing policy of the hypothetical monopolist raises the level of complexity in market analysis. With even a moderate number of products and locales, the analysis may prove to be a daunting task. Various assumptions about factors influencing the monopolist’s decision may lead to different pricing policies and, thus, different definitions of relevant markets. While the approach may be appropriate in theory, it is unclear how we might choose among the myriad of plausible price choices that the hypothetical profit-maximizing monopolist might make. The relatively ‘crude’ test of the 1984 Guidelines has the saving grace of simplicity, feasibility and predictability. Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Mary L. Azcuenaga, On the Issuance of the Horizontal Merger Guidelines, at 3 (Apr. 2, 1992). 4. If the Guidelines mean what Commissioner Azcuenaga says they mean, her analysis has merit. In order to define a market, one would have to determine the optimal pricing policy of market participants acting in a coordinated manner, taking into account the differing degrees of substitutability of each product in the market for all alternatives inside and outside the market. To be sure, aircraft engineers use supercomputers to analyze equally sophisticated problems in the design of airfoils, but rules of law do not normally have a level of complexity comparable to fluid dynamics. As a practical matter, this provision of the Guidelines will not be applied literally. E. Threshold Levels: Duration of Price Increase 1. The scope of the market depends not only on the magnitude of the hypothesized price increase, but also on the duration for which the increase is assumed to be in effect. In general, purchasers can turn to a broader range of substitutes as they have more time to do so. See generally ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 121-23. The 1982 Guidelines and the 1984 Guidelines used one year as the period for assessing the extent of -8- substitution for market definition purposes. (They used other time frames for other purposes, such as entry or measurement of production substitution.) 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “[T]he Agency, in most contexts, will use a price increase . . . lasting for the foreseeable future.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.11. 3. The Guidelines provide no indication of what constitutes “the foreseeable future.” One interpretation would be “in perpetuity,” which would lead to markets broader than under the former “one year” standard; this does not appear to be the interpretation that the agencies intended. Other interpretations, which agency staffs have suggested in private conversations, would be “for one product cycle” or “until the next purchase decision.” F. Threshold Levels: Base Price (I) 1. Selection of the base price from which the hypothetical price increase is taken is conceptually important in defining markets. The base price may be the prevailing price, the competitive price (used to avoid the so-called Cellophane trap where the prevailing price reflects market power), or something else. See generally ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 123-28. The 1992 Guidelines address the Cellophane trap directly changing the earlier approach of the 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines which indicated that prevailing price would be used (at least as between prevailing price and a lower competitive price). 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “[T]he Agency will use prevailing prices of the products of the merging firms and possible substitutes for such products, unless premerger circumstances are strongly suggestive of coordinated interaction, in which case the Agency will use a price more reflective of the competitive price.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.11 (footnote omitted); see also id. § 1.21 (for geographic market definition, base price will be determined in the same way as for product market definition). 3. The Guidelines are asymmetrical in that they do not appear to recognize other circumstances in which prevailing price is below competitive price. In particular, in declining industries that are undergoing a shakeout, prevailing prices will often fall below long-term competitive price (that is, the price that will prevail when the industry reaches equilibrium). The Guidelines, of course, do not specify the meaning of “competitive price,” and the agencies are likely to take the position that the term refers to the short-term competitive price. In an appropriate failing company or declining industry case, however, counsel may wish to invoke the Guidelines to support the proposition that the market should be defined by reference to post-shakeout price and should therefore be broadened. (The Guidelines’ provision discussed infra part II.G may also provide a basis for such an argument.) -9- G. Threshold Levels: Base Price (II) 1. For reasons already stated, the price selected for assessing the degree of substitution materially affects the resulting market definition. That price, in turn, depends on two components: the base price from which the hypothetical price increase is taken, and the magnitude of the price increase. We have already discussed the magnitude of the price increase, see supra part II.C, and we have discussed one basis for selecting a base price that differs from prevailing price, namely coordinated basis for selecting a base price that differs from prevailing price: since Section 7 is forward-looking, see supra part I.E.1, the market definition exercise arguably should be performed by reference to the price that will prevail in the future in the absence of the transaction under investigation. This concept was reflected in the 1982 and 1984 Guidelines and was carried over in revised form to the 1992 Guidelines. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “[T]he agency may use likely future prices, absent the merger, when changes in the prevailing prices can be predicted with reasonable reliability. Changes in price may be predicted on the basis of, for example, changes in regulation which affect price either directly or indirectly by affecting costs or demand.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.11; see also id. § 1.21 (for geographic market definition, base price will be determined in the same way as for product market definition). H. Price Discrimination as a Basis for Market Definition 1. The 1982 Guidelines identified price discrimination as a basis for market definition where certain conditions were satisfied. The practice was continued in the 1984 Guidelines and the 1992 Guidelines. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “The Agency will consider additional relevant product markets consisting of a particular use or uses by groups of buyers of the product for which a hypothetical monopolist would profitably and separately impose at least a ‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.12; see also id. § 1.22 (similar standard with respect to geographic markets). 3. In light of its history, this provision is now standard in merger analysis. The significance of the provision depends largely on its application, which remains highly discretionary. Even though the language of the 1992 Guidelines on price discrimination was substantially similar to the 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines, the FTC staff, at least, discerned a shift: “The 1992 Guidelines embrace a greater acceptance of product markets based on price discrimination. (Where price discrimination is possible, markets can be as small as sales to a single buyer.)” FTC Pocket Guide, supra part I.D.3.a, at 2. 4. The price discrimination provisions in the Guidelines are often viewed as creating an analogue to the submarkets found in older cases. See ABA Merger Monograph, supra part I.D.1, at 128 (discussion relationship to criteria identified in Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U.S. 294, 325 (1962)). - 10 - a. One objective of the 1982 Guidelines was to drive a stake through the heart of the Brown Shoe approach to submarkets. See Panel Discussion: The New Merger Guidelines, 51 ANTITRUST L.J. 317, 321 (1982) (remarks of William F. Baxter, Assistant Att’y Gen., that the submarket concept “has been terribly abused” and “the sooner we see the end to that kind of chatter the better”). b. Explicit adoption of submarkets, sometimes by reference to the Brown Shoe criteria without regard to the principles described in the Guidelines, has begun to reappear in recent cases. See FTC v. Cardinal Health, Inc., 12 F. Supp. 2d 34, 47-49 (D.D.C. 1998) (finding “distinct submarket” of wholesale prescription drug distribution to customers that did not self-warehouse drugs and could not use other methods of distribution as reasonable substitutes for defendants’ services); FTC v. Staples, 970 F. Supp. 1066, 1073-81 (D.D.C. 1997) (finding submarket for the sale of consumable office supplies through office supply superstores, despite high degree of functional interchangeability between consumable office supplies sold by office superstores and other retailers of office supplies, because certain customers did not go elsewhere for supplies). For a detailed discussion of the market definition methodologiesw in these cases, see William Blumenthal & David A. Cohen, Channels of Distribution as Merger “Markets”: Interpreting Staples and Cardinal, ANTITRUST REP. (MB), Nov. 1998, at 2. III. MARKET PARTICIPATION AND MEASUREMENT Once the market has been defined, market participants must be identified and market shares must be assigned before HHI concentration levels can be calculated. Under the 1992 Guidelines, this is not a mechanical exercise, but rather is highly judgmental. A. “Firms that Currently Produce or Sell” 1. The identification and measurement of market participants normally begin with suppliers that currently sell in the merchant market (that is, between firms that lack corporate affiliation). The 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines stated that the “evaluation of a merger will focus primarily, on firms that currently produce and sell the relevant product.” 1982 GUIDELINES § II.B (emphasis added); 1984 GUIDELINES § 2.2 (emphasis added). Other firms would be included based on probable supply responses. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “The Agency’s identification of firms that participate in the relevant market begins with all firms that currently produce or sell in the relevant market.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.31 (emphasis added). a. The Guidelines include, at least initially, both participants in the merchant market and vertically integrated firms. The inclusion of vertically integrated firms in - 11 - the relevant market is, however, limited by the captive use provisions of the Guidelines. See infra part III.B. b. The provision is clear in indicating that current suppliers are only the beginning of the analysis of market participation, rather than the primary focus. The substantive significance of this shift appears to be slight, though. Captive use is treated as part of the beginning, 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.31, and the treatment of the only other classes expressly recognized in the Guidelines -- durable products and production substitution, see id. §§ 1.31, 1.32 -- is not markedly more inviting than in the 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines. B. Captive Use 1. Authority is mixed on whether production for captive use should be considered when identifying market participants and measuring market shares. The 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines provided that producers for captive use would be included in the market if they would respond to a “small but significant and nontransitory” price increase by beginning to sell the relevant product in the merchant market or by increasing production of both the relevant product and the downstream product in which the relevant product is embodied. See 1982 GUIDELINES § II.B.3; 1984 GUIDELINES § 2.23. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide that market participants “include[] vertically integrated firms to the extent that such inclusion accurately reflects their competitive significance in the relevant market prior to the merger.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.31. 3. The Guidelines provision is cryptic, and its significance is not yet clear. From interpretations issued shortly after the release of the Guidelines, however, the enforcement agencies appear to disagree on the treatment of vertically integrated firms. a. The Antitrust Division evidently includes vertically integrated firms even if production is solely for captive use. See J. Rill, Assistant Att’y Gen., 60 Minutes with the Honorable James F. Rill, Before the ABA 40th Annual Antitrust Spring Meeting, at 8 (Apr. 3, 1992) [hereinafter Rill Speech] (“the Guidelines now include all current producers or sellers of the relevant product, even if the firm is vertically integrated and produces only for its own internal consumption”); C. James, Deputy Assistant Att’y Gen., Remarks before the Manufacturer’s Alliance on Productivity and Innovation, at 12 (Apr. 10, 1992) [hereinafter James Speech] (“[i]nternal production by vertically integrated firms is given full credit in market measurement under the new Guidelines”). b. At least as of 1992, the FTC evidently included vertically integrated firms only to the extent specified in the 1984 Guidelines. See K. Arquit, Director, FTC Bureau of Competition, Further Thoughts on the 1992 U.S. Government Horizontal Merger Guidelines, before the State Bar of Texas, at 7-8 (Apr. 24, 1992) [hereinafter Arquit Speech] (little or no substantive change from 1984 Guidelines intended, so standard is - 12 - “whether, and to what extent, captive producers are likely to exert a competitive impact on the relevant market, either by selling the relevant product or by increasing production of both the relevant product and downstream products”). The agency’s current practice is not clear. 4. The practical difficulty of measuring the market participation of vertically integrated firms depends largely on which of the preview interpretations is adopted. If inclusion of vertically integrated firms depends on a matter-specific assessment of their competitive impact, market measurement is highly judgmental -- how will they respond to a price increase? -- and provides substantial room for argument. If production by vertically integrated firms is counted fully, market measurement is eased considerably. (There will still be some difficulties, though -- the merger parties often lack data estimating vertically integrated competitors’ production for captive use.) C. Durable Products 1. In United States v. Aluminum Co. of America, 146 F.2d 416 (2d Cir. 1945), the court excluded scrap aluminum from the relevant aluminum market. Since then, authority has been split on the treatment of recycled or durable products when measuring markets. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 131-33. Rejecting the Alcoa methodology, the 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines include in the market firms that recycle or recondition products that “represent good substitutes for new products.” 1982 GUIDELINES § II.B.2; 1984 GUIDELINES § 2.22. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “To the extent that the analysis [in the product market definition provisions] under Section 1.1 indicates that used, reconditioned or recycled goods are included in the relevant market, market participants will include firms that produce or sell such goods and that likely would offer those goods in competition with other relevant products.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.31. D. Supply Substitution 1. As discussed supra part II.B, authority is split as to the appropriate treatment of supply substitution. Under the 1984 Guidelines, the standard governing the treatment of supply substitution was essentially this: “If a firm has existing productive and distributive facilities that could easily and economically be used to produce and sell the relevant product within one year in response to a ‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price, the Department will include that firm in the market.” 1984 GUIDELINES § 2.21; see also 1982 GUIDELINES § II.B.1 (same standard, except that period for shifting was six months). While retaining this concept, the 1992 Guidelines elaborate upon the elements of the standard and expand it to include supply responses through rapid construction or acquisition of new facilities. - 13 - 2. In particular, the 1992 Guidelines provide: a. “If a firm has existing assets that likely would be shifted or extended into production and sale of the relevant product within one year, and without incurring significant sunk costs of entry and exit, in response to a ‘small but significant and nontransitory’ increase in price for only the relevant product, the Agency will treat that firm as a market participant.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.321. b. “If new firms, or existing firms without closely related products or productive assets, likely would enter into production or sale in the relevant market within one year without the expenditure of significant sunk costs of entry and exit, the Agency will treat those firms as market participants.” Id. § 1.322. c. [Defining one of the important terms in these standards:] “Sunk costs are the acquisition costs of tangible and intangible assets that cannot be recovered through the redeployment of these assets outside the relevant market, i.e., costs uniquely incurred to supply the relevant product and geographic market.” Id. § 1.32. 3. The provisions of the 1984 Guidelines relating to supply substitution and to the related issue of entry, see 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.32; infra part V, resulted in substantial differences in judgment between agency staffs and counsel for merger parties. While the 1992 Guidelines specify the agencies’ standard in greater detail, differences in judgment are likely still to occur with some regularity. a. The 1984 Guidelines asked whether supply substitution could occur; the 1992 Guidelines ask whether supply substitution would occur. Whether the appropriate legal standard is “could” or “would” remains open to dispute. A “would” standard imposes greater burdens on the merger parties. It is also highly sensitive to the manner in which facts are gathered -- for example, if agency staff seek to determine whether supply substitution would occur by calling possible market participants, the order and phrasing of questions can affect the answers received. This raises a further issue: insofar as a “would” standard is deemed appropriate, is the determination of whether firms would shift to be made through a subjective test (what do they say?) or an objective test (what would you do if you were they?)? b. The “sunk cost” analysis is new to the private bar, and its practicalities have yet to be explored. After further experience, it may not prove to be so difficult as initially feared by many practitioners. And if it is difficult to apply, its practical significance may be limited -- if sunk costs are low, supply responses are treated under this section of the Guidelines; and if sunk costs are high, supply responses are treated under the Guidelines’ entry provisions, see 1992 GUIDELINES § 3; infra part V. (What is “high” in the world of sunk costs? See Rill Speech, supra part III.B.3.a, at 11 (“sunk costs in excess of five percent of total annual costs will be regarded as significant”).) Therefore, supply responses are credited, but sunk costs are material as to the specific - 14 - manner in which credit is given. Selection of the specific manner will matter in some cases. More generally, though, counsel might consider these rules of thumb: i. If large supply responses are likely to occur, the transaction is likely to be deemed lawful by virtue of either the supply response provisions or the entry provisions of the Guidelines. ii. If very limited supply responses are likely to occur, neither the supply response provisions nor the entry provisions are likely to be of much assistance, so move on to another issue. iii. If some intermediate level of supply response is likely to occur and the issue may be dispositive, invest the resources to learn the theory of sunk costs, as well as the facts pertinent to the cost structure of the industry under review. c. If firms are to be included in the market based upon the Guidelines’ supply response provisions, they must be assigned market shares for purposes of market measurement. The determination of their market share is highly judgmental, and agency staff and counsel for the merger parties may have different views. E. Selection of Statistical Proxy 1. In some instances the analysis of a transaction will depend on the statistical proxy used to measure the market -- capacity, revenues, unit sales, reserves, or something else (such as branches and deposits in banking, for example.) Where market shares fluctuate, the time period over which activity is measured can also be important. Considering the potential importance of the issue, surprisingly little authority addresses the methodology of measurement. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 153 n.749 (making similar observation and summarizing available authority). 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: market shares can be expressed either in dollar terms through measurement of sales, shipments, or production, or in physical terms through measurement of sales, shipments, production, capacity, or reserves. Market shares will be calculated using the best indicator of firms’ future competitive significance. Dollar sales or shipments generally will be used if firms are distinguished primarily by differentiation of their products. Unit sales generally will be used if firms are distinguished primarily on the basis of their relative advantages in serving different buyers or groups of buyers. Physical capacity or reserves generally will be used if it is these measures that most effectively distinguish firms. Typically, annual data are used, but where individual sales are large and infrequent so that annual data may be unrepresentative, the Agency may measure market shares over a longer period of time. - 15 - 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.41 (footnote omitted). 3. When market shares differ materially depending on the proxy or time frame selected, counsel should learn why. The explanation will often be significant in understanding the workings of the market and therefore the competitive effects of the transaction, cf. infra part IV (discussing Guidelines’ provisions on competitive effects). The explanation may also provide a basis for arguing that the transaction should be evaluated by reference to a particular proxy resulting in relatively low concentration levels. 4. Certain technology and consumer products industries are characterized by “generational competition,” in which firms compete to develop the product” that will have substantial share until the next product cycle. Market shares in such industries often vary sharply from year to year, depending on which particular firm is offering the hot product for that generation. In evaluating transactions involving such industries, counsel should consider a footnote in the Guidelines: “Where all firms have, on a forward-looking basis, an equal likelihood of securing sales, the Agency will assign firms equal shares.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.41 n.15; see also ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 158-59 (discussing “bidding models”). (The footnote applies to other industries as well, such as certain professional services.) Adjustments to market shares in light of generational competition may also be appropriate under the Guidelines’ provisions for “Changing Market Conditions,” see infra part III.H. F. Adjustments for Committed Capacity 1. “Limited authority suggests that production undertaken pursuant to a supply contract might appropriately be attributed in some circumstances to a purchaser/reseller, rather than to the producer.” ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 136 (collecting cases). The line of authority traces to United States v. General Dynamics Corp., 415 U.S. 486 (1974), in which a merger in the coal industry was held lawful because the acquired firm, the reserves of which were either depleted or committed under long-term contract, was “in a position to offer for sale neither its past production nor the bulk of the coal it is presently capable of producing,” id. at 502. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “In measuring a firm’s market share, the Agency wil1 not include its sales or capacity to the extent that the firm’s capacity is committed or so profitably employed outside the relevant market that it would not be available to respond to an increase in price in the market.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.41. 3. The Guidelines’ provision presents at least two issues: a. For how long a period must the capacity be committed before the provision may be invoked? The standard is not clear. Presumably we would not slash the measured share by half because the firm was sold out for the next six months. But what if the firm is committed for a year? For five years? Does the Guidelines’ time frame for - 16 - assessing entry (two years), see 1992 GUIDELINES § 3.2, provide a beeline? And does it matter whether the firm is committed to a single purchaser or to multiple purchasers? b. While the Guidelines provide for reduction in the producer’s share based on committed capacity, they do not address whether that capacity is simply dropped from the market or, instead, whether the share may be attributed to the purchaser. Where a purchaser has a long-term call on output, attribution may be appropriate in certain circumstances. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 136-38. G. Adjustments for Foreign Firms 1. “[T]here is a broad recognition that some accommodations in the treatment of foreign competitors must be made to reflect jurisdictional, economic, and other considerations. . . .” Id. at 141. The particular accommodations have been the subject of wide debate. Id. at 141-52. Many of the revisions from the 1982 Guidelines to the 1984 Guidelines related to foreign firms, which were treated by the 1984 Guidelines in three different sections, see 1984 GUIDELINES §§ 2.34, 2.4, 3.23. Those three sections were combined and revised in a single section in the 1992 Guidelines. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide that “market shares will be assigned to foreign competitors in the same way in which they are assigned to domestic competitors[,]” but that adjustments will be made in certain circumstances to reflect exchange rate fluctuations, quotas and other trade restraints, and foreign coordination. 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.43. 3. The adjustments specified in the 1992 Guidelines require judgments, as to which counsel for the merger parties may disagree with agency staff. In view of the divergent authority on the treatment of foreign competition, see supra part III.G.1, counsel might also ask whether standards other than those reflected in the Guidelines should be applied; such an argument is unlikely to be favorably received at the enforcement agencies, but might have persuasive value before a court. H. Adjustments for Changing Market Conditions 1. Because Section 7 is a forward-looking statute, see supra part I.E.1, historical market share data have significance only to the extent that they have predictive value. When market conditions are changing such that historical data lack predictive value, those data must be disregarded or adjusted, or their interpretation must be modified. The 1984 Guidelines provided that the government’s interpretation of market concentration and market share data take account of reasonably predictable effects of changing market conditions. See 1984 GUIDELINES § 3.21; see also W. Baxter, The Definition and Measurement of Market Power in Industries Characterized by Rapidly Developing and Changing Technology, 53 ANTITRUST L.J. 717 (1984). The provision was carried over into the 1992 Guidelines. - 17 - 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “[R]ecent or ongoing changes in the market may indicate that the current market share of a particular firm either understates or overstates the firm’s future competitive significance. . . . The Agency will consider reasonably predictable effects of recent or ongoing changes in market conditions in interpreting market concentration and market share data.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.521. 3. The Guidelines’ approach involves interpretation of market concentration and market share data, rather than adjustment of the data for purposes of the market concentration calculation. (This compares with the treatment of committed capacity and foreign firms, see supra parts III.F-G, as to which the Guidelines adjust the data.) The distinction is of limited significance, but the adjustment approach pressures the advocate of adjustment (whether the agency staff or counsel for the parties) to specify numbers with an arithmetic precision that can be sidestepped under the reinterpretation approach. 4. Of greater significance is the substantial discretion afforded by this provision of the Guidelines. Unless invoked sparingly, the provision is an imitation to blue-sky conjectures as to the future of the market. Counsel should note that the provision allows for data to be reinterpreted downward or upwards. In at least one matter in which the author was involved, agency staff contended that the transaction should be enjoined because the acquiring firm was well poised to have a great future, so that its meager market share therefore understated its competitive significance. I. Adjustments for Financial Weakness 1. Authority is split as to whether market share data may be adjusted to account for financial weakness of a merging firm when the elements of the failing company doctrine, see infra part VII, are not satisfied. See generally ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 238-39. Over the years the enforcement agencies have taken inconsistent positions. In Pillsbury Co., 93 F.T.C. 966, 1033-39 (1979), the Commission rejected financial weakness as a decision factor except as a tiebreaker. In the 1982 FTC Statement on Horizontal Mergers, at § III.A.2, however, the Commission wrote that “evidence of individual firm performance can be of use in evaluating the probable effects of a merger.” The 1982 Guidelines took no position on the issue, but the 1984 Guidelines provided that a firm’s market share may overstate its significance if the firm faces financial difficulties that clearly reflect an underlying weakness, see 1984 GUIDELINES § 3.22. 2. The 1992 Guidelines do not include an express discussion of financial condition as a factor affecting the significance of market shares and concentration. 3. The significance of the deletion of the discussion of financial condition from the Guidelines is not clear, and the enforcement agencies have expressed differing views. a. Discussing the change, the then-Chairman of the FTC said that the provision of the 1984 Guidelines had been misapplied in efforts to create a “flailing firm” defense. See Remarks of J. Steiger before the ABA 40th Annual Antitrust Spring Meeting, at 6 - 18 - (Apr. 3, 1992); see also Arquit Speech, supra part III.B.3.b, at 15-16 (elimination of provision from 1984 Guidelines “should dispel any notion . . . that a firm’s financial weakness, standing alone and short of imminent failure, is likely to be a “changing market condition”). b. The Antitrust Division, however, indicated that the “changing market conditions” provision of the 1992 Guidelines, see supra part III.H, should be read to include the deleted provision on financial condition. See James Speech, supra part III.B.3.a, at 12. J. Adjustments for Other Factors 1. The scope of other factors that might merit adjustment or reinterpretation of market share and concentration data is open to dispute. At least one scholarly article has advocated routine adjustment of data, see L. Kaplow, The Accuracy of Traditional Market Power Analysis and a Direct Adjustment Alternative, 95 HARV. L. REV. 1817 (1982). In several cases of the late 1970s, the FTC discounted market shares to reflect the conclusion that the merging firms, while in the same market, were not head-to-head competitors. See Heublein, Inc., 96 F.T.C. 385, 575-76 (1980); SKF Industries, 94 F.T.C. 6 (1979); CocaCola Bottling Co., 93 F.T.C. 110 (1979). The 1984 Guidelines identified changing market conditions, financial condition, and foreign firms as examples of situations that might warrant the conclusion that market share data understate or overstate the future competitive significance of market participants. 1984 GUIDELINES § 3.2. 2. The 1992 Guidelines also treat changing market conditions, see supra part III.H, as illustrative. More generally, the Guidelines provide: “in some situations, market share and market concentration data may either understate or overstate the likely future competitive significance of a firm or firms in the market or the impact of a merger.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.52. In addition to changing market conditions, the “degree of difference between the products and locations in the market and substitutes outside the market,” id. § 1.522, is identified as an example of a situation that might warrant reinterpretation. 3. In general, however, counsel should be reluctant to argue for adjustment or reinterpretation of data based on considerations not expressly treated in the Guidelines. If the facts that would support such an argument have merit, they ordinarily can be weaved into an alternative argument based upon some consideration treated expressly in the Guidelines. Often that consideration will be the Guidelines’ competitive effects section, a catch-all to which we turn next. K. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index 1. After the market participants and shares have been determined, the HHI is used to calculate market concentration. The market share of each participant is squared and the results are summed to produce the HHI level. Thus, a market with only one participant (a - 19 - true monopoly) will have an HHI level of 10,000 while a market with ten equal participants will have an HHI level of 1,000. 2. Under the 1992 Guidelines, a market with post-merger HHI of less than 1,000 is considered unconcentrated and requires no analysis of competitive effects. 1992 GUIDELINES § 1.51. Markets with post-merger HHI levels between 1,000 and 1,800 are considered moderately concentrated and an increase of 100 or more raises “significant competitive concerns,” requiring further investigation. A market with an HHI level of 1,800 or greater is considered highly concentrated and increases of 50 or more require further investigation. Increases in HHI levels of 100 or more for highly concentrated markets are presumed to create or enhance market power. IV. COMPETITIVE EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL MERGERS If a transaction falls within HHI-based safe harbors set forth in the Guidelines’ “General Standards,” see 1992 GUIDELINES §1.51, it ordinarily will be cleared without further analysis, id. Otherwise, the enforcement agencies undertake to assess the transaction’s competitive effects before determining whether a challenge is warranted, see id. § 2. The requirements of a competitive effects analysis, at least in its current form, is new to the Guidelines. Its inclusion poses numerous issues, several of which are addressed here. A. Coordinated Interaction 1. Mergers may facilitate tacit collusion in certain circumstances. Courts and enforcement officials have known that for a long time, and the 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines were based largely on that premise. From the perspective of framing guidelines or legal rules, the practical problem has been to identify the circumstances in which facilitation of tacit collusion is a valid concern. For many years courts tried to identify the circumstances through a summary statistic -- concentration. See, e.g., United States v. Philadelphia National Bank, 374 U.S. 321, 363 (1963). The analysis now extends to considerably more factors. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide a general framework for thinking about coordinated interaction, and they identify many factors that warrant consideration. Market conditions that are considered conducive to reaching terms of coordination include: homogeneous products, standardized pricing, standardized marketing practices, and the availability of key market information. 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.11. Conditions that are conducive to detecting or punishing deviations from the terms of coordination include: regular availability of information on actual prices and output level of competitors, small and frequent individual transactions which reduce the incentive to “cheat” on the terms of coordination and allow other firms to monitor “cheaters,” and the absence of maverick firms which have a greater economic incentive to “cheat.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.12. - 20 - 3. Of course, these factors vary greatly in importance according to the particular characteristics of each market and the prediction of future coordination is often akin to speculation. See 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.1 (“In analyzing the effect of a particular merger on coordinated interaction, the Agency is mindful of the difficulties of predicting likely future behavior based on the types of incomplete and sometimes contradictory information typically generated in merger investigations”). 4. This section of the Guidelines is based largely on the field of economics known as game theory. The Guidelines do not specify the various game-theoretic models upon which the enforcement agencies’ analysis of coordinated interaction will rest. The basic models are widely available in standard texts, although the field is evolving and new variations on the models are continually being offered in the literature. For some nonmathematical introductions, see D. KREPS, GAME THEORY AND ECONOMIC MODELING (1990), or A. DIXIT & B. NALEBUFF, THINKING STRATEGICALLY: THE COMPETITIVE EDGE IN BUSINESS, POLITICS, AND EVERYDAY LIFE (1991). For a more formal, but still accessible survey, see Fudenberg & Tirole, Noncooperative Game Theory for Industrial Organization: An Introduction and Overview, in I HANDBOOK OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION (1989). Several textbooks in the field have appeared over the last few years and should be available in local university bookstores. See, e.g., D. FUDENBERG & J. TIROLE, GAME THEORY (1991). B. Unilateral Effects Unilateral effects occur when the merged firm alone is able profitably to charge higher prices or to reduce output, even without parallel action by other market participants. The 1992 Guidelines provide two theories as to why mergers may reduce competition through unilateral effects. More recent activity by the enforcement agencies appears to depart from the Guidelines’ formulations, and consideration of unilateral effects appears increasingly to be the basis for the agencies’ analysis of specific mergers. See J. Baker, Director, FTC Bureau of Competition, Contemporary Empirical Merger Analysis, before the George Mason University Law Review Symposium on Antitrust in the Information Revolution (Oct. 11, 1996). 1. Under the Guidelines’ first theory, when products in the market are differentiated and substitution between the products is imperfect, competition is “non-uniform,” and individual sellers compete more directly with rivals selling closer substitutes. The 1992 Guidelines provide in pertinent part: “Substantial unilateral price elevation . . . requires that there be a significant share of sales in the market accounted for by consumers who regard the products of the merging firms as their first and second choices, and that repositioning of the non-parties’ product lines to replace the localized competition lost through the merger will be unlikely.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.21. Under the Guidelines, the enforcement agencies will presume the first prong to be satisfied where “each product’s market share is reflective not only of its relative appeal as a first choice to consumers of the merging firms’ products but also its relative appeal as a second choice, . . . market concentration data fall outside the safeharbor regions. . ., and the merging firms have a combined market share of at least thirty-five percent. . . .” Id. § 2.211. - 21 - a. The relationship between the theory and market definition is far from clear. If the theory is correct, market definition would seem to be irrelevant -- the merging firms would be sufficiently close competitors, and sufficiently unconstrained by other competitors, that the scope of the market or the precise share of the merging firms would not matter. b. The difficulty of obtaining reliable evidence on consumers’ first and second product choices will be substantial. The enforcement agencies probably should have taken a lesson from the FTC’s consumer protection side on the infirmities in most consumer research. The information identified in the Guidelines as probative -“marketing surveys, information from bidding structures, or normal course of business documents from industry participants,” see 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.211 n.22 -may be the best available, but is almost certain to provide a skewed depiction of competitive reality. c. Insofar as the theory stands for the proposition that a market may contain narrower groupings that themselves merit antitrust scrutiny, it may be having the ironic effect of rehabilitating submarket analysis. See part II.H.4 supra (discussing Staples and Cardinal Health). Whether submarkets should be used remains a legitimate policy issue. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 128-31. d. In New York v. Kraft General Foods, Inc., 926 F. Supp 321 (S.D.N.Y. 1995), the court analyzed the potential unilateral effects of the merger of two cereal makers focusing on one cereal brand from each of the merging firms (Grape-Nuts and Nabisco Shredded Wheat). The court found that the government failed to show that these two cereal brands were the first and second choices of a significant number of consumers. Id. at 366. The court concluded that it would be not profitable for the merged firm to raise prices of Grape Nuts and capture a substantial percentage of lost sales through the sale of Nabisco Shredded Wheat “because it is likely that the lost sales would be dispersed among a wide variety of products.” Id. 2. Under the Guidelines’ second theory, where products are relatively undifferentiated and capacity primarily distinguishes firms, a merger provides a larger sales base on which to enjoy a price increase and eliminates a competitor to which sales otherwise would be diverted. 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.22. Under the Guidelines, such an effect may be profitable when the merging firms have a combined market share of at least 35%. The effect is unlikely if nonparties could expand to provide alterative sources of supply to the merged firm’s customers; nonparty expansion is deemed unlikely “if those firms face binding capacity constraints that could not be economically relaxed within two years or if existing excess capacity is significantly more costly to operate than capacity currently in use.” Id. a. The relationship between this theory, too, and market definition is potentially problematic, although for reasons that are not so superficially obvious as under the first theory. - 22 - b. Determining the feasibility of nonparty expansion is likely to be difficult in many cases. Note that the Guidelines test is whether capacity constraints could be removed, not whether they would be removed. In this respect the provision differs from the Guidelines’ treatment of supply responses through production substitution, see supra part III.D, or entry, see infra part V. 3. Other recent challenges under unilateral effects theories include United States v. SBC Communications, Inc., 1999 WL 1211458 (D.D.C.) *12; United States v. Chancellor Media Corp., 1999 WL 816689 *9 (D.D.C.); United States v. Chancellor Media Corp., 1999 WL 631210 *8 (D.D.C.); United States v. Chancellor Media Co., Inc., 63 Fed. Reg. 17,446 (Apr. 9, 1998) (proposed final judgment and competitive impact statement); CVS Corp., 62 Fed. Reg. 31,103, 31104 (June 6, 1997) (analysis to aid public comment); United States v. Signature Flight Support Corp., 62 Fed. Reg. 7,041, 7047 (Feb. 14, 1997) (proposed final judgment and competitive impact statement); United States v. Vail Resorts, Inc., 62 Fed. Reg. 5037 (Feb. 3, 1997) (proposed consent order and competitive impact statement); United States v. Interstate Bakeries Corp., 1996-1 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 71,271 (N.D. Ill. 1996); United States v. Kimberly-Clark Corp., 1996-1 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 71,405 (N.D. Tex. 1996). For a useful article explaining the concepts, see C. Shapiro, Mergers with Differentiated Products, 10 ANTITRUST 23 (1996). The competitive impact statement in Vail Resorts is especially instructive in laying out the government’s current thinking: Economists have developed an analytical framework to explain how a merger can allow a firm to charge higher prices after acquiring a competitor, even if firms do not coordinate their behavior (such as by explicitly colluding with one another). . . . This framework has been called a “unilateral effects” mode. It is particularly useful in markets that have differentiated products, that is, where products of different firms are not identical. Each ski resort, for example, has characteristics, such as terrain and amenities, that different consumers value differently. This unilateral effects model is an additional tool to examine the accepted, common-sense notion that a merger is more likely to have a harmful effect if the merging firms are close competitors. Before a merger, increases in price by two independent resorts are deterred by the loss of customers that would result from a price increase. If resorts are put under common ownership by a merger, however, they will no longer constrain each other’s prices in the same way. A merger can make a price increase profitable. In particular, before a merge[r], if two resorts are significant competitors to each other and one of these resorts increases its prices, a significant proportion of this resort’s customers would be “lost” to the other resort. After the merger between the two resorts, however, some customers who would switch away from the resort that raises its price would no longer be lost, but “recaptured” at the newly-acquired resort. Price increases that would have been unprofitable to either firm alone, therefore, would become profitable to the merged entity. - 23 - As a result of this recapture phenomenon, a merged firm, acting independently to earn the most profits it can, will choose higher prices than its two component firms did before the merger, if those firms were significant competitors to each other before the merger. The loss of competition that arises as a result of this effect is what is meant by a “unilateral” anticompetitive effect, that is, an effect that does not depend on the firms in the market acting interdependently. This unilateral effect will be larger as the recapture rate (which is sometimes called the “diversion ratio” . . .) is larger, as the margin earned on recaptured customers is higher, and as the customers who leave the merging firms in response to a price increase are fewer (in technical terms, the lower the “own price elasticity”). 62 Fed. Reg. at 5044 (footnote omitted). C. Power Buyers 1. In numerous cases, courts have declined to enjoin transactions that involve substantial concentration levels, but in markets characterized by buyers that are large or otherwise enjoy power to counteract the market power of the merged firm. See, e.g., FTC v. Elders Grain Inc., 868 F.2d 901, 905 (7th Cir. 1989); United States v. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., 1991-2 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 69,647, at 69,918-22 (S.D. Iowa 1991); United States v. Country Lake Foods, Inc., 754 F. Supp. 669, 679-80 (D. Minn. 1990); United States v. Baker Hughes Inc., 731 F. Supp. 3, 11 (D.D.C.), aff’d, 908 F.2d 981 (D.C. Cir. 1990); FTC v. R.R. Donnelly & Sons Co., 1990-2 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 69,239, at 64,852-55 (D.D.C. 1990); FTC v. Owens-Illinois, Inc., 681 F. Supp. 27, 48 (D.D.C.), vacated as moot, 850 F.2d 694 (D.C Cir. 1988); cf. United States v. Syufy Enterprises, 903 F.2d 659, 663 (9th Cir. 1990) (similar point in monopolization matter). But see Eastman Kodak Co. v. Image Technical Servs. Inc., 504 U.S. 451, 475 (1992) (doubting “that sophisticated purchasers will ensure that competitive prices are charged to unsophisticated purchasers, too”); FTC v. Cardinal Health, Inc., 12 F. Supp. 2d 34, 61 (D.D.C. 1998) (power buyers insufficient to rebut prima facie case); United States v. United Tote, Inc., 768 F. Supp. 1064, 1085 (D. Del. 1991) (rejecting large buyer defense). 2. The 1992 Guidelines do not specifically recognize a defense based on large, powerful or sophisticated buyers. The 1992 Guidelines do state: “In certain circumstances, buyer characteristics and the nature of the procurement process may affect the incentives to deviate from terms of coordination. Buyer size alone is not the determining characteristic. Where large buyers likely would engage in long-term contracting, so that the sales covered by such contracts can be large relative to the total output of a firm in the market, firms may have the incentive to deviate. However, this only can be accomplished where the duration, volume and profitability of the business covered by such contracts are sufficiently large as to make deviation more profitable in the long term than honoring the terms of coordination, and buyers likely would switch suppliers.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 2.12. 3. The omission of an explicit large buyer defense from the Guidelines clearly was not an oversight; the enforcement agencies are familiar with the issue. In many instances, large - 24 - buyers can be effective in destabilizing coordinated interaction among suppliers, inducing new suppliers to enter, or otherwise assuring that competitive supply will remain available; these considerations are recognized under the Guidelines. See H. Hovenkamp, Mergers and Buyers, 77 VA. L. REV. 1369 (1991). D. Burden of Proof 1. Allocation of the burden of proof with respect to the competitive effects issues raised by the Guidelines will be important in determining the outcome of many litigated matters. The Guidelines’ provisions addressing competitive effects contain many subjective elements and are vague as to how those elements should be weighed; the game-theoretic concepts underlying the provisions are not fully developed; and the facts that must be assembled and presented are relatively intractable. Thus, the party that bears the burden of proof with respect to the competitive effects analysis will be at a disadvantage. 2. The Guidelines provide: “The Guidelines do not attempt to assign the burden of proof, or the burden of coming forward with evidence, on any particular issue. Nor do the Guidelines attempt to adjust or reapportion burdens of proof or burdens of coming forward as those standards have been established by the courts.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 0.1. Interpreting the last sentence, the Guidelines state in a footnote: “For example, the burden with respect to efficiency and failure continues to reside with the proponents of the merger.” Id. § 0.1 n.5. 3. The prevailing view is that the burden of proof remains with the plaintiff. “Despite the shifting burdens of production in an anti-trust case, the ultimate burden of persuasion always rests with the Government.” FTC v. Cardinal Health, Inc., 12 F. Supp. 2d 34, 63 (D.D.C. 1998). E. Sliding Scale Rebuttal of Prima Facie Case 1. Many of the factors considered during the competitive effects analysis were reflected in the 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines, but principally as tiebreakers for use in close cases. The 1984 Guidelines, for example, specified factors that would be considered “as they relate to the ease and profitability of collusion. Where relevant, the factors are most likely to be important where the Department’s decision to challenge a merger is otherwise close.” 1984 GUIDELINES § 3.4. Comparable language was not included in the 1992 Guidelines, thus creating some ambiguity as to the relationship between the “General Standards” and the competitive effects analysis. Is the showing required under the competitive effects section intended to be a sliding scale dependent upon the level of concentration? Or are the nature and significance of the competitive effects analysis intended to be unrelated to the closeness of earlier phases of the case? 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “The Agency assesses whether the merger, in light of market concentration and other factors that characterize the market, raises concern about potential adverse competitive effects.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 0.2. - 25 - 3. The proper interpretation of the Guidelines on this point is not clear, and the enforcement agencies have expressed differing views. Compare Rill Speech, supra part III.B.3.a, at 13 (no sliding scale), and James Speech, supra part III.B.3.a, at 4-5 (same), with Arquit Speech, supra part III.B.3.b, at 5 (“high concentration is cause for more concern than low concentration,” and “the level of these concerns and the evidence needed to rebut them does not artificially plateau at 1800”), and B.F. Goodrich Co., 110 F.T.C. 207, 305, 338-39 (1988) (strength of evidence required to overcome presumption of anticompetitive effect increases with concentration). 4. If a prima facie violation can still be made out based on concentration levels alone, the case law appears to favor a sliding scale. See, e.g., United States v. Baker Hughes, Inc., 908 F.2d 981, 991 (D.C Cir. 1990) (“the more compelling the prima facie case, the more evidence the defendant must present to rebut it successfully”). V. ENTRY A. Appropriate Standard: In General 1. There is little question that entry can defeat the exercise of market power in certain circumstances. There is sharp disagreement, however, in identifying those circumstances and in fashioning the legal standard that will govern entry analysis. a. The 1982 Guidelines stated that “the Department is unlikely to challenge mergers” in markets in which entry “is so easy that existing competitors could not succeed in raising prices for any significant period of time.” In assessing the degree of entry, the Guidelines evaluated the response within two years of a “small but significant and nontransitory” price increase of five percent. Where significant entry was unlikely, the Department generally “will not attempt to differentiate further the degrees of difficulty of entry.” 1982 GUIDELINES § III.B. b. The 1984 Guidelines applied essentially the same test, except for shifting to a sliding scale: “The more difficult entry into a market is, the more likely the Department is to challenge the merger.” 1984 GUIDELINES § 3.3. c. Often citing to the Guidelines’ entry provisions, numerous courts have relied upon entry considerations in holding transactions lawful under Section 7, notwithstanding high levels of concentration. See, e.g., United States v. Baker Hughes Inc., 908 F.2d 981 (D.C. Cir. 1990); United States v. Waste Management, Inc., 743 F.2d 976 (2d Cir. 1984); United States v. Country Lake Foods, Inc., 754 F. Supp. 669 (D. Minn. 1990); United States v. Calmar Inc., 612 F. Supp. 1298 (D.N.J. 1985). In several recent decisions, courts have found transactions unlawful under Section 7, but only after considering and rejecting entry arguments. E.g., FTC v. - 26 - Cardinal Health, Inc., 12 F. Supp. 2d 34, 58 (D.D.C. 1998); FTC v. Staples, 970 F. Supp. 1066, 1086-88 (D.D.C. 1997). d. By the late 1980s, the enforcement agencies had moved away from reliance on structural conditions of entry and had begun also to consider the incentives to enter and the likely sufficiency of entry. The focus shifted from whether entry could occur to whether it would occur. See, e.g., Statement of J. Whalley, Deputy Assistant Att’y Gen., before the 29th Annual Antitrust Seminar, Practicing Law Inst. (Dec. 1, 1989) [hereinafter Whalley Speech], reprinted in 7 Trade Reg Rep. (CCH) ¶ 50,029, at 48,625 (test “is not whether entry can occur, but whether timely, sufficient entry is likely to occur in response to noncompetitive performance”). e. In the Baker Hughes litigation the Antitrust Division argued that entry had to be “quick and effective” in order to rebut a prima facie case based upon high concentration. The D.C. Circuit rejected this argument as “novel and unduly onerous.” 908 F.2d at 987. For a particularly useful discussion of the issues in Baker Hughes, see Jonathan B. Baker, The Problem with Baker Hughes and Syufy: On the Role of Entry in Merger Analysis, 65 ANTITRUST L.J. 353 (1997). 2. The 1992 Guidelines establish the following general standard on entry considerations: “A merger is not likely to create or enhance market power or to facilitate its exercise, if entry into the market is so easy that market participants, after the merger, either collectively or unilaterally could not profitably maintain a price increase above premerger levels. . . . Entry is that easy if entry would be timely, likely, and sufficient in its magnitude, character and scope to deter or counteract the competitive effects of concern.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 3.0. 3. One open issue is the appropriate treatment of entry that is scheduled to occur independent of the suspect merger, rather than as a competitive response. Arguably the Guidelines treat the entrant by reference to the standard provisions governing identification of market participants, measurement of market share, and assessment of competitive effects, rather than by reference to the entry provisions. Courts have not always agreed. In Long Island Jewish Medical Center, the court addressed the government’s post-trial brief that asserted new anchor hospitals were not likely to enter the market by pointing out that there was already a new and emerging “entry” in the form of another hospital near the LIJMC that fulfilled the likelihood, timeliness, and sufficiency requirements of entry under the 1992 Guidelines and that other medical care facilities were entering the relevant geographic market as Manhattan hospitals moved to Long Island. United States v. Long Island Jewish Medical Center, 983 F. Supp. 121, 149 (E.D.N.Y. 1997). B. Timeliness 1. The speed with which entry must occur in order to rebut concern over a transaction’s competitive effects has been the subject of dispute. See generally ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 213-15. - 27 - 2. Following the pattern of the 1982 and 1984 Guidelines, the 1992 Guidelines provide: “The Agency generally will consider timely only those committed entry alternatives that can be achieved within two years from initial planing to significant market impact.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 3.2. Exception is made for durable goods in certain circumstances. Id. 3. An illustration of the government’s approach may be seen in the FTC’s challenge to the merger of two drug companies that developed gene therapy technologies, Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz. Ciba-Geigy Ltd., 62 Fed. Reg. 409 (Jan. 3, 1997) (analysis to aid public comment). Timely entry into the gene therapy market was deemed unlikely in light of the length clinical trials, data collection and analysis, and significant resource expenditures required for entry. Id. at 410. The FTC also concluded that one company would hold so many patents and patent applications that the barriers to entry would be heightened, thus impeding others firms in the development of their own products. Id. at 410-11. 4. The Guidelines’ standard is open to attack on numerous bases: a. The two-year standard is entirely arbitrary. It has a history in prior government practice, but the use of any bright line (whether two years or something more or less) can be called into question. In some markets two years is a long time; in others, not so. The exception for durable goods recognizes that longer time frames may be appropriate for some types of markets. Suppose that substantial inventory is in the hands of distributors and is overhanging the market, thus limiting the competitive damage that could occur in two years. Or suppose consumers have substantial discretion to postpone purchase decisions. b. In some instances the mere threat of entry is sufficient to deter anticompetitive conduct. “[A] firm that never enters a given market can nonetheless exert competitive pressure on that market. If barriers to entry are insignificant, the threat of entry can stimulate competition in a concentrated market, regardless of whether entry ever occurs.” Baker Hughes, 908 F.2d at 988. c. The Guidelines’ treatment of fringe expansion is not entirely clear, but appears to be viewed principally in assessing concentration and competitive effect. Fringe expansion is certainly important to those assessments, but fringe expansion could also be viewed from an entry perspective as well. The effects of expansion by a fringe competitor are often more rapid and competitively significant than the effects of entry by a de novo competitor. - 28 - VI. EFFICIENCIES A. In General 1. Historically, courts have been skeptical of the argument that the efficiencies produced by a merger could offset potential anti-competitive effects. See, e.g., United States v. Philadelphia Nat’l Bank, 374 U.S. 321, 370-71 (1963) (A merger which substantially lessens competition “is not saved because, on some ultimate reckoning of social or economic debits and credits, it may be deemed beneficial.”); Brown Shoe, 370 U.S. at 344 (“Congress appreciated that occasional higher costs and prices might result from the maintenance of fragmented industries and markets.”). 2. More recently, courts have taken efficiencies into account when analyzing mergers. See FTC v. University Health, Inc., 938 F.2d 1206, 1222 (11th Cir. 1991) (“an efficiency defense to the government’s prima facie case in section 7 challenges is appropriate in certain circumstances”); FTC v. Butterworth Health Corp., 946 F. Supp. 1285, 1301 (W.D. Mich. 1996) (denying preliminary injunction where merger would “result in significant efficiencies, in the form of capital expenditures and operating efficiencies”), aff’d, 121 F.3d 708 (6th Cir. 1997). The efficiencies defense, however, can raise difficult evidentiary problems for merging companies. University Health, 938 F.2d at 1223 (“it is difficult to measure the efficiencies a proposed transaction would yield”); FTC v. Cardinal Health, Inc., 12 F. Supp. 2d 34, 63 (D.D.C. 1998) (rejecting efficiencies defense where the defendants had not shown that the projected savings from the mergers would be sufficient to overcome possibly greater benefits from continued competition); United States v. Mercy Health Services, 902 F. Supp. 968, 988-89 (N.D. Iowa 1995) (rejecting efficiencies defense where the defendants did not have the “actual ability to implement the proposed efficiencies”). 3. The 1992 Guidelines recognize the efficiencies defense providing that “[s]ome mergers that the Agency might challenge may be reasonably necessary to achieve significant net efficiencies.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 4. Cognizable efficiencies which are listed in the Guidelines include economies of scale, integration efficiencies, lower transportation costs, more efficient manufacturing, service, or distribution operations, and administrative savings. 4. The Antitrust Division and FTC have announced plans to give greater weight to efficiency considerations in merger enforcement and to issue policy statements explaining their views in greater detail. The statements are likely to appear in mid-1997. B. Passing On 1. Suppose a transaction yields substantial efficiencies, but increases market power, so that many of the benefits are retained by the merging firms. Are those efficiencies to be credited in assessing the net benefits of the transaction? The 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines were silent on the subject, but in a 1989 speech the Antitrust Division indicated - 29 - that efficiencies would be considered only to the extent that their benefits were passed on to consumers over time. See Whalley Speech, supra part V.A.1.d. 2. Like the prior Guidelines, the 1992 Guidelines are silent on the issue. See 1992 GUIDELINES § 4. 3. The interpretation of the Guidelines on this issue is not clear, and the enforcement agencies have expressed differing views. Compare Rill Speech, supra part III.B.3.a, at 27 (efficiencies recognized “even though they may not in every case inure to the benefit of consumers in the short term”) with Arquit Speech, supra part III.B.3.b, at 11, 14 (FTC may challenge mergers that allow supracompetitive pricing if the benefits of efficiencies will not be passed on to consumers, but may tolerate short-term price increase as necessary to attain efficiencies if price reductions will result in the future). 4. The differing perspectives on the issue may reflect the agencies’ differing perspectives on the purpose of Section 7. See supra part I.D.3. Under a wealth transfer test, efficiencies would be credited only to the extent that they were passed on. Under an efficiencies test, the incidence of the efficiencies would not matter. 5. In University Health, the court addressed the passing on requirement directly: “[W]e hold that a defendant who seeks to overcome a presumption that a proposed acquisition would substantially lessen competition must demonstrate that the intended acquisition would result in significant economies and that these economies would ultimately benefit competition and, hence, consumers.” 938 F.2d at 1223 (footnote omitted). Similarly, the Butterworth court based its acceptance of the merging hospitals’ efficiencies defense on its finding that the efficiencies “would . . . invariably be passed on to the consumers.” 946 F. Supp. at 1301. See also United States v. Long Island Jewish Medical Center, 983 F. Supp. 121, 148-49 (E.D.N.Y. 1997) (recognizing significant efficiencies). By contrast, the court in Staples found that the defendants did not successfully rebut the government’s case with efficiency arguments because, among other factors, the projected pass-through rates were unrealistic. FTC v. Staples, 970 F. Supp. 1066, 1088-90 (D.D.C. 1997). C. Alternative Means 1. The Guidelines provide: “the Agency will reject claims of efficiencies if equivalent or comparable savings can reasonably be achieved by the parties through other means.” 1992 GUIDELINES §4. 2. While this position is reasonable on its face, it can be detrimental unless it is invoked with care. a. Whether other means are realistically attainable is often unclear. Many merger lawyers (including within the enforcement agencies) like to play investment banker by conjuring up alternative deals. Implementing the alternatives is much tougher. - 30 - b. Determining the comparability of savings from the alternatives is also difficult. Accurate efficiencies assessments require extensive, transaction-specific analysis; and the limited time, data, and resources available for merger reviews often will not permit a proper examination of comparability. c. Because the enforcement agencies are not required to publish decisions setting forth the bases for their enforcement actions, there is often confusion -- even with the agencies themselves -- as to the reasoning upon which a particular enforcement action rested. This can give rise to uncertainty as to whether a challenge was based upon the belief that (i) efficiencies were insubstantial, (ii) efficiencies were substantial, but could be realized through alternative means, or (iii) efficiencies were substantial, but did not outweigh adverse effects of the transaction. Knowing the basis is often critical to decisions on whether to seek a consent settlement. A real-life example: Several years ago one of the enforcement agencies challenged a joint venture based in part on the staff economists’ assessment that the parties could restructure the venture in a way that would pose less competitive risk, but would yield comparable efficiencies. Evidently, word was not fully communicated to the staff lawyers, who took the position that the agency had challenged the venture and that the parties could not be permitted to circumvent that decision by restructuring the venture. The effort to cut through the confusion, coupled with certain commercial pressures on the transaction, proved so frustrating that the business executives simply abandoned the transaction. No efficiencies were realized, and one of the parties eventually exited from the market that had provoked the competitive concern. VII. FAILING FIRMS A. Requirement of Exit, Absent the Transaction 1. The failing firm doctrine has a lengthy history, which has created considerable ambiguity as to the doctrine’s basis and purpose. See generally ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 233-37. In Citizen Publishing Co v. United States, 394 U.S. 131 (1969), the Supreme Court reiterated prior law requiring that the acquired firm “face the grave probability of a business failure” and that the acquiring firm be the only available purchaser, id. at 137. The Court also stated that the failing firm must show that its prospects for bankruptcy reorganization must be dim or nonexistent, id. at 137-38; accord, United States v. Greater Buffalo Press, Inc., 402 U.S. 549, 555 (1971), but this element was later omitted when the Court stated the failing company standards in dictum in United States v. General Dynamics Corp., 415 U.S. 486, 507 (1974). The 1982 Guidelines and 1984 Guidelines recognized a failing firm defense, based upon all three Citizen Publishing elements. 1982 GUIDELINES § V.B; 1984 GUIDELINES § 5.1. 2. The 1992 Guidelines identify the elements of the failing firm defense as the following “1) the allegedly failing firm would be unable to meet its financial obligations in the near future; 2) it would not be able to reorganize successfully under Chapter 11 of the - 31 - Bankruptcy Act; 3) it has made unsuccessful good-faith efforts to elicit reasonable alternative offers of acquisition of the assets of the failing firm that would both keep its tangible and intangible assets in the relevant market and pose a less severe danger to competition than does the proposed merger, and 4) absent the acquisition, the assets of the failing firm would exit the relevant market.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 5.1 (footnotes omitted). 3. The fourth element is new to the 1992 Guidelines and appears to go beyond the elements of the failing firm defense as stated in the case law. It is also inconsistent with the common view that one of Congress’s purposes in recognizing the failing firm defense was to protect the interests of shareholders, creditors, employees, and communities. See ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 236 nn.1203-08. 4. The second element of the Guidelines is also open to attack as inconsistent with Congressional intent, see id. at 234 n.1195 (citing POSNER, supra part II.C.1, at 21), but at least it finds strong support in the case law. B. Value of Alternative Offers 1. “How great a sacrifice in price the failing firm’s shareholders must be willing to accept in order to be sold to a ‘less anticompetitive’ purchaser remains unresolved.” ABA MERGER MONOGRAPH, supra part I.D.1, at 237-38. The issue turns in part on construction of the Citizen Publishing requirement that the acquiring firm be the “only available purchaser,” 394 U.S. at 137. Does that mean only available purchaser at the suspect transaction’s price, at a “reasonable” price, at any price, or something else? (The issue also turns on interpretation of legislative intent with respect to protection of shareholders and creditors, see supra part VII.A.3.) The case law has not addressed the issue. The 1984 Guidelines did not specify a minimum alternative price, but noted that “[t]he fact that an offer is less than the proposed transaction does not make it unreasonable.” 1984 GUIDELINES § 5.1 n.38. 2. The 1992 Guidelines provide: “Any offer to purchase the assets of the failing firm for a price above the liquidation value of those assets -- the highest valued use outside the relevant market . . . -- will be regarded as a reasonable alternative offer.” 1992 GUIDELINES § 5.1 n.36. 3. The position reflected in the Guidelines is certainly hard nosed. It may or may not be correct as a matter of law; the issue is ripe for litigation. Use of a “liquidation value” test has a few problems, including the following: a. From the perspective of social welfare, it may lead to a suboptimal result. The competitively objectionable offer may be the highest-valued due to a market power premium, an efficiency premium, or both. We shouldn’t credit the market power premium, but we should credit the efficiency premium. If we permit an alternative purchaser to scoop up the assets at any price exceeding liquidation, the efficiencies from the objectionable transaction will go unrealized. A different standard -- 32 - requiring that alternative offers be no lower than the competitively objectionable offer minus the included market power premium -- might warrant consideration. b. Liquidation value is highly subjective. Five liquidation value studies are likely to yield five different conclusions. The only way to determine liquidation value conclusively is to liquidate. c. Liquidation value also changes over time, a reality that opens the bid process to manipulation. If a company is failing, its liquidation value tends to decline over time, and antitrust reviews take time. Thus, an alternative offer that was below liquidation value when the competitively objectionable offer was accepted, if left on the table, may exceed liquidation value if the antitrust review is sufficiently prolonged. Delaying tactics may prevent the assets from reaching their best use, but can benefit persons hoping to scuttle the winning bid. C. Manner of Search for Alternative Offers The Guidelines do not specify the manner in which the search for alternative offers is to be conducted, and the case law on the issue is limited. For an illustration of what can happen when the search process goes awry, see FTC v. Harbour Group Investments, L.P., 1990-2 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 69,247 (D.D.C. 1990). Harbour Group includes some dubious propositions, but it is worth reading. 1. As one dubious proposition, the court reacted negatively to “the fact that the [challenged] deal . . . had already been struck at the time any serious efforts to find alternatives . . . began,” id. at 64,915. Does this mean that the failing company defense is waived unless the search is performed early, even if legitimate defenses on the competitive merits can be asserted? That would be wasteful, since searches are costly and timeconsuming. If the search is conducted in good faith and the competitively suspect buyer agrees not to assert a tortious interference claim against new bidders, the timing of the search should be irrelevant. 2. Similarly, the court reacted negatively to the appearance that the “efforts to find alternative purchasers were motivated by advice of legal counsel, after most of the deal with [the suspect purchaser] had been completed,” id. at 64,915 n.9. Does that mean the defense is waived if its elements are followed on advice of counsel? Businessmen sometimes do things, after all, because their lawyers identify legal requirements. VIII. COMPETITIVE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL MERGERS During the 1950s and 1960s numerous mergers between firms in a customer/supplier relationship were challenged on the theory that vertical effects, typically the foreclosure of competing customers or suppliers, would substantially reduce competition. The theory fell into disrepute, and few vertical challenges were brought during the 1970s and 1980s. The 1982 and 1984 - 33 - Guidelines addressed “non-horizontal mergers” only insofar as the mergers caused horizontal effects, and the 1992 Guidelines were limited to horizontal mergers. Beginning in 1994, however, the federal enforcement agencies began to show renewed interest in theories of challenge to vertical mergers. This Part VIII begins by summarizing the older court cases. It then briefly reviews the vertical merger provisions of the 1984 Guidelines, which remain the most recent formal government statement of enforcement policy towards vertical mergers. Finally, it summarizes the government’s recent enforcement actions, which have been implemented solely through consent order. A. Older Court Cases 1 Historically, vertical merger cases have been based primarily on two traditional theories of challenge: foreclosing competitors from access to customers, and foreclosing competitors from access to inputs. 2. United States v. E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., 353 U.S. 586 (1957), the first Supreme Court case to address vertical mergers, relied on a foreclosure theory to bar du Pont’s acquisition of General Motor’s stock. The court established a two-prong for assessing the legality of a vertical merger: (1) the affected market must be substantial, and (2) foreclosure of competition in a substantial share of the market must be likely. The court held that the test was met in the markets for automobile finishes and fabrics. Du Pont sold automobile finishes and fabrics to GM, the world’s largest automobile producer at the time. 3. In Brown Shoe Co. v. United States, 370 U.S. 294, 323-324 (1962), the court echoed its previous ruling in du Pont stating, “[t]he primary vice of a vertical merger” is that the foreclosure of competitors of either party “may act as a clog on competition, which deprive[s] . . . rivals of a fair opportunity to compete.” The Supreme Court upheld the district court finding the merger of Brown Shoe, primarily a shoe manufacturer, and Kinney, the largest U.S. shoe retailer at the time, violated Section 7. The court held that in vertical cases, market share is important but seldom determinative, so long as it is above de minimis proportions. The most important factor to the court was “the very nature and purpose of the arrangement.” Id. at 329. 4. Ford Motor Co. v. United States, 405 U.S. 562 (1972), aff’g, 286 F. Supp. 407 (E.D. Mich. 1968) and 315 F. Supp. 372 (E.D. Mich 1970), is another example of the court applying a foreclosure theory. The Supreme Court upheld the district court finding that Ford’s internalization of spark plug production through the purchase of Autolite manufacturing facilities was a blatant violation of Section 7. The district court also identified raised barriers to entry into spark plug production as a competitive concern. B. 1984 Merger Guidelines The 1984 Merger Guidelines are the most recent formal statement of agency policy for the evaluation of vertical mergers. They do not expressly address vertical competitive effects. - 34 - Instead, under the caption “Horizontal Effects from Non-Horizontal Mergers,” the Guidelines identify four competitive concerns, all of which differ from the traditional foreclosure theories: 1. Vertical mergers may eliminate potential entrants in the market because firms are often likely entrants into vertically related markets. In some circumstances, the elimination of the one firm from the “edge” of the market that the other firm is already in, may adversely affect competition. 1984 GUIDELINES § 4.11. 2. Vertical mergers may increase barriers to entry under specified conditions by requiring entry into both markets simultaneously. Id. § 4.21. 3. Vertical mergers can facilitate collusion between firms in the same market by helping to monitor retail prices or by eliminating a disruptive buyer. Id. § 4.22. 4. Finally, in regulated industries, monopoly utilities may be able to circumvent rate regulation by integrating with a supplier of inputs, internally pricing the inputs above competitive levels, and increasing prices to consumers based on increased costs. Id. § 4.23. C. Recent Enforcement through Consent Agreements In the past few years, the agencies have dramatically increased enforcement actions in connection with vertical mergers. All of the recent actions have been settled through consent agreements. These theories go well beyond those previously identified by the courts or expressed in the 1984 Guidelines. For the most recent published statement of the agencies’ vertical enforcement theories, see 7 Trade Reg. Rep. (CCH) ¶ 50,147 (Apr. 5, 1995) (reprinting text of speech by S. Sunshine, Deputy Assistant Att’y Gen., before ABA Antitrust Section Spring Meeting). 1. Product Complements a. Recent enforcement actions have been extended beyond mergers involving customers and inputs to mergers of firms making complements. This extension from inputs to complements is easy to explain and justify by realizing that market power in one has similar effects as market power in the other. For example, competition in the market for computer hardware can be affected by both power in chips (an input) and power in software (a complement). b. In In re Martin Marietta Corp., 59 Fed. Reg. 37,045 (April 12, 1994) (proposed consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment), the government challenged the acquisition of General Dynamics’ Space Systems Division by Martin Marietta. Martin Marietta manufactured satellites, and General Dynamics produced a complementary product, satellite launch vehicles. The FTC alleged that in its role as a satellite launch vehicle producer, the merged firm would receive confidential proprietary information about its competitors in satellite manufacture. To resolve these concerns, the parties entered into a consent decree that prohibits Martin - 35 - Marietta from disclosing to its satellite division any nonpublic information it receives from satellite competitors through its newly-acquired launch vehicle division. c. In In re Cadence Design Sys., Inc., 62 Fed. Reg. 26,790 (May 15, 1997) (analysis to aid public comment), the FTC challenged the proposed merger of Cadence Design System, Inc., a dominant supplier of complete software layout environments, and Cooper & Chyan Technology, Inc., a company that sold a router that worked within a layout environment. According to the Commission, new entrants would need to enter into the integrated circuit layout environment and router markets at the same time. A consent decree required Cadence to allow independent commercial router developers to build interfaces between their design tools and the Cadence layout environment. Id. at 26,792-93. 2. Discrimination a. Even if competitors are not foreclosed, the vertically integrated firm’s discrimination in one market might competitively disadvantage rivals in an adjacent market. Merging firms have agreed to a variety of conditions in order to satisfy the agencies’ concerns. b. In United States v. AT&T Corp., 59 Fed. Reg. 44,158 (Aug. 26, 1994) (proposed final judgment and competitive impact statement), the government challenged AT&T’s acquisition of McCaw Cellular Communications. AT&T was both the dominant long-distance supplier and the largest supplier of cellular infrastructure equipment in the U.S. and McCaw was the largest cellular service provider. The government alleged that the merger would increase McCaw’s incentive to discriminate against AT&T’s long distance competitors. The consent agreement required McCaw to give other long distance companies equal access (in terms of quality, type, and price) to its cellular services. See also United States v. Sprint Corp., 1996-1 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 71,300 (D.D.C. 1996) (consent settlement imposing antidiscrimination safeguards and reporting requirements to address vertical effects from investment in Sprint by France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom); United States v. MCI Communications Corp., 1994-2 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 70,730 (D.D.C. 1994) (similar consent settlement to address vertical effects from investment in MCI by British Telecommunications). c. In re Eli Lilly and Company, Inc., 59 Fed. Reg. 60,815 (Nov. 28, 1994) (proposed consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment), reopened and set aside, Docket No. C-3594 (May 13, 1999), concerned the acquisition of a pharmacy benefit management company, PCS Health Systems, by Lilly, a pharmaceutical manufacturer. The consent agreement realized that discrimination will be necessary to achieve procompetitive efficiencies, but regulated the manner of discrimination. Specifically, PCS was required to keep an open drug formulary (to not exclude Lilly’s competitors from its list of approved medications) and to accept all discounts offered by Lilly’s competitors and reflect such discounts in the formulary rankings of - 36 - preference. See also In re Merck & Co., Inc., 63 Fed. Reg. 46,451 (Sept. 1, 1998) (analysis to aid public comment). d. The consent agreement entered in In re Time Warner Inc., 61 Fed. Reg. 50,301 (Sept. 25, 1996) (proposed consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment), addresses both vertical and horizontal concerns arising from the acquisition by Time Warner of Turner Broadcasting System. The vertical provisions address discrimination in two respects. First, the decree requires that Turner programming must be offered to Time Warner’s competitors in consumer multi-channel television services at the same relative rate that Turner provided before the merger. Second, the decree requires Turner and a larger Time Warner shareholder, TCI, to cancel a preferential long-term carriage agreement and to wait for a six-month “cooling off” period before negotiating a new carriage agreement. Significantly, however, the decree does not require that the new carriage agreement must be non-discriminatory. e. The FTC entered into a consent agreement addressing discrimination concerns in connection with a proposed joint venture between Texaco and Shell. Texaco owned the only heated pipeline for the transport of undiluted heavy crude oil from the San Joaquin Valley to San Francisco, and Shell was one of two asphalt manufacturers in the San Francisco area. To alleviate concerns that the joint venture would charge Huntway, Shell’s asphalt competitor, a higher price than it charged to Shell for the crude oil used to make asphalt, the joint venture entered into an FTC-approved tenyear supply agreement with Huntway. In re Shell Oil Co., 62 Fed. Reg. 67,868-869 (Dec. 30, 1997) (analysis to aid public comment). 3. Misuse of Information a. Both the complement and discrimination theories can be viewed as extensions of previous theories of vertical merger regulation: complements are analogous to inputs, and discrimination is a more subtle form of foreclosure. The misuse of information theory, on the other hand, is not rooted in any of the traditional reasoning concerning vertical mergers. b. In numerous recent cases, the government has challenged mergers because of potential misuse of information obtained from customers or supplier in one market who are competitors in an adjacent market. See, e.g., In re TRW, Inc., 63 Fed. Reg. 1866 (Jan. 12, 1998) (analysis to aid public comment); In re Raytheon Co., 61 Fed. Reg. 31,526 (June 20, 1996) (proposed consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment); In re Alliant Technologies, Inc., 59 Fed. Reg. 61,617 (Dec. 1, 1994) (proposed consent agreement and analysis to public comment); United States v. MCI Communications Corp., 1994-2 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 70,730 (D.D.C. 1994). c. Most misuse of information cases are solved through an agreement by the merged entity to erect informational firewalls to isolate proprietary information of competitors from the competing division of the firm. In some cases, however, - 37 - divestiture of the potential conduit of confidential information is required. In re Lockheed Martin Corp., 61 Fed. Reg. 18732 (Apr. 29, 1996) (proposed consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment); In re Litton Industries, Inc., 61 Fed. Reg. 7,105 (February 26, 1996) (consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment). d. The misuse of information theory has been criticized, even within the agencies, because often the efficiencies created by the merger require complete and open integration of the merged entities components. Further, government intervention may be unnecessary because companies routinely enter into confidentiality agreements to protect their proprietary information from competitors. See Dissenting Statement of Deborah K. Owen on Proposed Consent Agreement with Martin Marietta Corp., 59 Fed. Reg. 37,045 (April 12, 1994) (proposed consent agreement with analysis to aid public comment). IX. PREMERGER NOTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS The Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, 15 U.S.C. § 18a, requires that parties to certain mergers and acquisitions must notify the enforcement agencies of the contemplated transaction and observe a waiting period prior to closing. Roughly 3000 transactions per year have been subject to HSR reporting over the recent period. This Part IX summarizes the basic tests governing whether a transaction is subject to a reporting obligation and identifies the principal exceptions. It then reviews the process by which reportable transactions are reviewed. A. Basic Tests under HSR Parties to a purchase and sale of assets or voting securities must file premerger notification under HSR if each of three tests is satisfied. If the transaction fails to satisfy any one of the tests, it is not subject to a reporting obligation. The tests are as follows: 1. The “Commerce” Test One of the parties must be engaged in interstate commerce or in any activity affecting interstate commerce. Id. § 18a(a)(1). This test should be presumed to be invariably satisfied. 2. The “Size of Parties” Test The parties must include one $100,000,000 person and one $10,000,000 person in accordance with the following specifications: - 38 - a. A “person” is defined as including the ultimate parent of the party to the transaction and all other entities controlled by the same ultimate parent. 16 C.F.R. § 801.1(a). “Control” is a term of art under the HSR regulations. See id. § 801.1(b). b. The size of the person is measured by reference to “annual net sales” and “total assets.” i. The “annual net sales of a person shall be as stated on the last regularly prepared annual statement of income and expense of that person.” Id. § 801.11(c)(1). ii. The “total assets of a person shall be as stated on the last regularly prepared balance sheet of that person.” Id. § 801.11(c)(2). iii. The preceding (i) and (ii) are subject to requirements that the financial statements are consolidated, are prepared in accordance with normal accounting principles, and are not more than fifteen months old. See id. § 801.11(b). Where the financial statements are not consolidated, annual net sales and total assets must be recomputed. Id. c. Using the preceding definitions, the “size of parties” test is satisfied under any of the following circumstances, 15 U.S.C. § 18a(a)(2): i. Voting securities or assets of a person engaged in manufacturing which has annual net sales or total assets of $10,000,000 or more are being acquired by any person which has total assets or annual net sales of $100,000,000 or more; ii. Voting securities or assets of a person not engaged in manufacturing which has total assets of $10,000,000 or more are being acquired by any person which has total assets or annual net sales or $100,000,000 or more; or iii. Voting securities or assets of a person with annual net sales or total assets of $100,000,000 or more are being acquired by any person with total assets or annual net sales of $10,000,000 or more. 3. The “Size of Transaction” Test Following the transaction, the acquiring person must hold 15% or an aggregate of $15,000,000 of voting securities or assets of the acquired person, in accordance with the following specifications: a. The percentage of voting securities is measured by reference to the voting power for directors of the issuer (not necessarily the person as defined above) whose voting securities are being acquired. The test is specified at 16 C.F.R. § 801.12. - 39 - b. The percentage of assets is measured by reference to book values. See id. § 801.12(d). In some circumstances acquisitions of assets by the acquiring person from the acquired person within the prior 180 calendar days must be aggregated. See id. § 801.13(b). Note that “person” is defined as above to include the ultimate parent and its controlled entities, so that the aggregation requirement may extend beyond the subsidiaries that are parties to any particular transaction. c. The value of the assets or voting securities is measured by reference to acquisition price, market price (in the case of publicly traded securities), and fair market value (in the case of assets and private securities), under tests specified in 16 C.F.R. §§ 801.10 and 801.13. i. Acquisition price includes the value of all consideration. Id. § 801.10(c)(2). (As a practical matter, however, the definition of consideration, particularly in the form of assumed liabilities, depends on whether the transaction involves assets or voting securities. See ABA ANTITRUST SECTION, PREMERGER NOTIFICATION PRACTICE MANUAL (rev. ed. 1992).) ii. Fair market value must be determined in good faith by the directors of the ultimate parent of the acquiring person, although the responsibility may be delegated. 16 C.F.R. § 801.10(c)(3). The regulations do not specify the test by which fair market value is to be measured. For one commentary’s suggestions, see S. AXINN ET AL., ACQUISITIONS UNDER THE HART-SCOTT-RODINO ANTITRUST IMPROVEMENT ACT § 5.04 (rev. ed. 1996). d. For purposes of the “size of transaction” test, cash is not considered an asset of the person from whom it is acquired. 16 C.F.R. § 801.21. B. Exemptions from HSR Reporting Obligations The statute exempts twelve classes of transactions from reporting obligations. 15 U.S.C. § 18a(c). All of the twelve, as well as other classes of exempt transaction, have been addressed in the regulations. The most significant exemptions are the following: 1. Certain acquisitions of goods or realty in the ordinary course of business. See 61 Fed. Reg. 13666, 13684 (Mar. 28, 1996) (to be codified at 16 C.F.R. § 802.1). 2. Certain acquisitions of real property assets, including office and residential property, hotels and motels and related improvements (but not ski facilities or casinos), golf courses, swim and tennis clubs, agricultural property, retail rental space, and warehouses. See id. at 13686 (to be codified at 16 C.F.R. § 802.2). 3. Acquisitions of carbon-based mineral reserves below certain dollar thresholds. See id. at 13688 (to be codified at 16 C.F.R. § 802.3). - 40 - 4. Acquisitions of investment rental property. See id. (to be codified at 16 C.F.R. § 802.5). 5. Certain acquisitions involving federal agency approval or supervision. 16 C.F.R. §§ 802.6, 802.8. 6. Acquisitions solely for the purposes of investment, regardless of dollar value, if the acquiring person will hold ten percent or less outstanding voting securities of the issuer. Id. § 802.9. The FTC interprets “solely for the purposes of investment” as precluding anything other than a passive role for the acquiring person. If the acquiring person receives a board seat, for example, the exemption is not available. 7. Acquisitions involving less than $15,000,000 of assets and voting securities, so long as the acquiring person will not hold assets with a value of more than $15,000,000 or voting securities that confer control of an issuer which, together with the issuer’s controlled entities, has annual net sales or total assets of $25 million or more. Id. § 802.20. 8. Acquisitions in which the acquired and acquiring persons are commonly controlled by reason of holdings of voting securities. Id. § 802.30. 9. Acquisitions of convertible voting securities, id. § 802.31, which are defined as “a voting security which presently does not entitle its owner or holder to vote for directors,” id. § 801.1(f)(2). The act of converting the instrument into one with present voting power, however, may be a reportable event. Id. § 801.32 (“conversion is an acquisition within the meaning of the act”). 10. Certain acquisitions by employee trusts. Id. § 802.35. 11. Certain acquisitions of foreign assets or voting securities by U.S. persons. Id. § 802.50. 12. Acquisitions by foreign persons of assets located outside the United States. Id. § 802.51(a). The “location” of certain assets, such as intangible assets and moveable assets, may involve difficult characterization issues. 13. Certain acquisitions by foreign persons of foreign voting securities or of assets located in the United States. Id. § 802.51(b,c). 14. Certain acquisitions by foreign government corporations. Id. § 802.52. Acquisitions by foreign states and foreign governments, other than through their corporations engaged in commerce, are generally exempt by virtue of the regulations’ definition of “entity,” see id. § 801.1(a)(2). 15. Certain acquisitions by creditors, insurers, and institutional investors. Id. §§ 801.63, 802.64. - 41 - 16. Acquisitions subject to divestiture order in a government antitrust case. Id. § 802.70. 17. Acquisitions resulting from gift, intestate succession, testamentary disposition, or irrevocable trust. Id. § 802.71. C. HSR Procedure for Transactions Subject to a Reporting Obligation 1. For most transactions, the HSR process is commenced by the filing of the requisite forms and attachments by both parties to the transaction. The parties must then observe a thirty-day waiting period, which may be terminated early or extended by the enforcement agencies. 2. For tender offers and acquisitions of voting securities from third parties not included within the same person as the issuer, see id. § 801.30, the HSR process is commenced by the acquiring person’s giving notice to the issuer whose voting securities are being acquired and the filing of the requisite forms and attachments by the acquiring person. The acquiring person must then observe a thirty-day waiting period, which may be terminated early or extended by the enforcement agency; provided that the waiting period is shortened to fifteen days in the case of a cash tender offer. Under the regulations, the acquired person is required to file its HSR form and attachments by the fifteenth day (tenth day in the case of a cash tender offer) following receipt of notice from the acquiring person. 3. The HSR process is a clearance process, not an approval process, and inaction by the enforcement agencies means the parties are free to close. 4. Subject to the next paragraph, the fact of a person’s filing HSR notification and the contents of the filing are confidential and exempt from the Freedom of Information Act. If an enforcement agency elects to investigate the transaction, however, third parties can often infer aspects of the transaction from the agency’s questions. 5. If neither the FTC nor the Antitrust Division wishes to investigate the transaction, the agencies may simply permit the waiting permit to expire or, if the parties have so requested, may grant early termination of the waiting period. Grants of early termination are publicly disclosed by the FTC on a recorded message on the date of the grant and are reported in the Federal Register some time later. The disclosure contains only limited information -- little more than the identities of the acquiring and acquired person. 6. If either agency wishes to investigate the transaction formally, it must request “clearance” from the other agency. Clearance is ordinarily resolved within the first ten days of the HSR waiting period. a. Once clearance has been granted, the agency ordinarily contacts the parties with “informal, voluntary” information requests. It also ordinarily contacts third parties, such as customers, competitors, and trade associations. If the investigation is - 42 - sufficient to allay the agency’s competitive concerns, the waiting period is permitted to expire. b. If the agency’s investigation is not sufficient to allay competitive concerns, the agency will issue a “Request for Additional Information and Documentary Material,” commonly known as a “Second Request.” The issuance of the Request extends the waiting period within which the parties may not close until twenty days (ten in the case of a cash tender offer) after both parties (or the acquiring party only in the case of a tender offer) have “substantially complied” with the Request. See 15 U.S.C. § 18(e); 16 C.F.R. § 803.20. Generally, Second Requests are very broad. By their terms, they call for virtually all documents in the recipient’s possession relating to the definition of the relevant markets, market shares, competition, competitors, competitive evaluations and assessments, pricing and marketing, and conditions for entry. The scope of the Second Request is typically negotiated between the parties and the agency’s staff, but the compliance burden common extends the closing for three or four months and sometimes longer. 7. The statute provides for civil penalties of up to $11,000 (after adjustment for inflation) per day of violation, as well as other relief, for failing to file required notification or for closing a transaction prior to expiration of the waiting period. The government has been active since 1995 in imposing substantial penalties for noncompliance. See, e.g., FTC: WATCH No. 450 (Feb. 14, 1996) (penalty of $3,100,000 imposed on Sara Lee for failure to report); United States v. Mahle GmbH, 1997-2 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 71,868 (D.D.C.) (penalty of $5.6 million for failure of German piston manufacturer to make requisite U.S. filing with respect to acquisition of controlling interest in Brazilian competitor); United States v. Blackstone Capital Partners II Merchant Banking Fund, L.P., 1999-1 Trade Cas. (CCH) ¶ 72,484 (D.D.C.) (penalty of $2,785,000 for failure of a merchant banking fund and one of its general partners to produce all required documents). D. Merger Review Other Than Under HSR The FTC and the Antitrust Division both have the statutory authority to investigate transactions independent of the HSR Act. 1. The FTC may open an investigation and issue compulsory process in the form of annual or special reports, access orders, subpoenas and civil investigative demands. See 15 U.S.C. § 49 (subpoena power); 15 U.S.C. § 57b-1 (CID power). 2. The Antitrust Division can issue CIDs requiring the production of documents, oral testimony, or answers to interrogatories. 15 U.S.C. § 1312(a). 3. The agencies face no time constraints on the issuance of CIDs. In some instances they have issued CIDs in HSR-reportable transactions, either to develop information prior to the issuance of a Second Request or to close gaps in the response to the Second Request. Although there is an issue as to whether agencies may pursue both the CID process and the - 43 - Second Request process in connection with any particular transaction, the question has not been addressed by the courts. 4. Although the agencies rarely challenge transactions that are not subject to a reporting obligation under the HSR Act, such challenges can be developed, even after closing, through the use of CID tools. One such challenge resulted in a judgment against the merged firm and a related divestiture order. See United States v. United Tote, Inc., 768 F. Supp. 1064 (D. Del. 1991). - 44 - WDC-84031-1 January 18, 2001--17:50:48