Seven Principles of
Quality Crime Prevention
Ronald V Clarke
Rutgers, The State University of
New Jersey
This Talk
• Projects
• Not capacity or programs
• Not situational crime prevention or
problem-oriented policing
• Not problem solving process (SARA
or “5 Is”)
Seven Principles
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Be clear about your objectives
Focus on very specific problems
Understand your problem
Be skeptical about displacement
Consider a variety of solutions
Anticipate implementation difficulties
Evaluate your results
Have Clear Objectives
• Focus on crime reduction
– Not partnerships
– Not social programs
– Not reducing fear
– Not showing concern
• Fight “goal drift”
• Quantify crime reduction targets
Be Crime Specific
• Official crime categories too broad
• Not “car thefts” – but juvenile
joyriding, theft for export, theft for
spare parts, etc
• Solutions must be closely tailored to
the problem
Residential Burglary
(Poyner)
• City center
– Offenders on foot/cash and jewelry
• Suburban
– Offenders with cars/TVs; electronics
• Different preventive implications:
– City center - Prevent access at front
– Suburbs - Reduce rear access;
footpaths; market reduction approach
Understand Your Problem
•
•
•
•
•
Identify crime concentrations
Adopt the offender’s perspective
Use the crime triangle
Analyze how the crime is committed
Develop hypotheses
Identify Crime
Concentrations
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•
•
•
•
80/20 rule
Grease to the squeak/bang for the
buck
Assists analysis
Guides solutions
Illustrate this later – concepts first
Crime Concentration
Concepts
•
•
•
•
•
Repeat offenders
Hot spots
Repeat victimization
Hot products
Risky facilities
Hot Spots
• 6% of addresses in Minneapolis
accounted for 60% of calls for police
service (Sherman et al)
• Crime generators
• Crime attractors
Repeat Victimization
• 4.3% of people experience 43.5% of
victimizations (BCS, 1992)
• Two main explanations (Pease)
– “Flag” accounts
– “Boost” accounts
• “Olympic” response model
Hot Products
• Cash - “mother’s milk” of crime
• BCS shows cash, jewelry, electronics
targeted in burglary
• Shoplifted items in US: tobacco,
liquor, sneakers, brand name jeans,
CD/cassettes and cosmetics
• Some cars 30+ more at risk
Lorries Stolen
UK, 1994
Number
Theft
Stolen Rate per
1000
Livestock Carrier
156
56
Drop-side Lorry
582
27
Flat-bed Lorry
565
14
Garbage Truck
10
1
Garbage Truck
Horse Box
Drop Side Lorry
Flat Bed Lorry
Hot Products CRAVED by
Thieves
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•
•
•
•
Concealable
Removable
Available
Valuable
Enjoyable
• Disposable
Risky Facilities
1. USA Convenience stores: 6.5% have
65% of robberies
2. UK Banks: 4% have robbery rates 4-6
times higher than other banks
3. Stockholm schools: 8% suffered 50% of
violent crimes in 1993/4 school year
4. Liverpool bus stop shelters: 9%
experience 40% of vandalism
Risky Facilities
• Analysis – compare worst with best
• Sometimes layout and design
problems
• Often management problems
– Certification programs
– Voluntary codes of practice
– Performance bonds
Offender’s Perspective
•
•
•
•
“Think thief” (Ekblom)
Interview offenders
Understand the motive
Study modus operandi:
– How are targets selected?
– Victims subdued?
– Police avoided?
– Goods disposed of?
er
Of
fe
nd
nd
Target/victim
Guardian
r
ce
Ha
Pl a
CRIME
ge
na
Ma
ler
The Crime Triangle
The Crime Triangle
• Three main elements of crime:
– Offender
– Victim
– Place
• Three “controls”:
– Handler
– Guardian
– Place manager
Develop Hypotheses About
the Problem
• These help you:
– Decide which data to collect
– Interpret analysis results
– Think about solutions
Be Skeptical About
Displacement
• Dispositional assumptions
– Shoplifting/mugging
– Speeding
• Opportunities create crime
• Research finds little displacement
• Diffusion of benefits
Hesseling’s (1994) Study
• 55 studies reviewed for the Dutch
government
• No displacement in 22 studies
• Some displacement in 33 studies
• Always more crime prevented than
displaced
• Same results in recent studies
Mobile Phone Frauds in
USA
Dollar Losses
June 1992 - December 1999
$500,000,000
$450,000,000
$400,000,000
$350,000,000
$300,000,000
Tumbling & Cloning
Losses
$250,000,000
$200,000,000
Subscription Losses
$150,000,000
$100,000,000
$50,000,000
Dec-99
Jun-99
Dec-98
Jun-98
Dec-97
Jun-97
Dec-96
Jun-96
Dec-95
Jun-95
Dec-94
Jun-94
Dec-93
Jun-93
Dec-92
Jun-92
$0
Diffusion of Benefits
Diffusion – More Examples
• Red light cameras in Scotland
• Employee theft in NJ electronics
store
• Street lighting and alley-gates in
England
• Vehicle tacking systems in USA
• Library thefts in University of
Wisconsin
Consider Many Solutions
• Focus on near causes
– More certain impact
– More immediate impact
– Easier to prove impact
• Use 25 techniques of situational
prevention
The 25 Techniques
• 5 techniques for each of
following (see handout):
– Increase effort
– Increase risks
– Reduce rewards
– Reduce provocations
– Remove excuses
Compare Costs
1. Economic costs
2. Social costs (keep an open mind)
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Inconvenience
Intrusiveness
Aesthetics
Exclusion
3. Difficulty of implementation
Anticipate Implementation
Difficulties
• Choose partners carefully
– After analysis not before
– Only those who can contribute
• Appoint a project coordinator
• Watch for danger signs
Expect Difficulties
When a Solution...
...needs coordination among agencies
...takes a long time
…requires a series of steps
…is implemented by staff with little
understanding
…lacks a champion among the project team
...lacks the support of top administrators
Expect Difficulties
When the solution is implemented by
an agency...
...outside the partnership
...that is poorly resourced
…that is in turmoil
...that gains little direct benefit
Evaluate Your Results
• Plan evaluation at outset
• Set quantifiable targets
• Make comparisons
– Before and after
– With control areas
• Get expert help when needed
• Communicate your findings
Seven Principles
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Be clear about your objectives
Focus on very specific problems
Understand your problem
Be skeptical about displacement
Consider a variety of solutions
Anticipate implementation difficulties
Evaluate your results
Ronald V Clarke
Rutgers University
rvgclarke@aol.com
www.popcenter.org
www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk