Bandwidth Trends on the
Internet… A Cable Data
Vendor’s Perspective
Tom Cloonan, Chief Strategy Officer, ARRIS
Agenda
•
Introduction
• Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the
Future)
• Networking Equipment Trends
• Conclusions
2
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Monitoring Bandwidth Trends for the Cable
Industry
We need to predict the capacities for these products in the future…
Head-end
EPON and
RFOG
Customer Premise
Outside Plant
Nodes and
Amplifiers
Residential
Gateways
Taps and Splitters
Video
Gateways and
Players
Local
Encoders
SMB
Gateways
Hosted Service
Portal
Headend Optics
and Transmitters
Fixed Mobility
Convergence
Universal
Edge QAM
CMTS Edge
Routers
VOD and
Advertising
Wireless Networking
Transcoders
Encoders
Wi-Fi® Solutions
Indoor/Outdoor
3
Tools & Services
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Agenda
•
Introduction
• Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for
the Future)
• Networking Equipment Trends
• Conclusions
4
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Some Basic Terms Used In This Talk
Instantaneous BW
Max Possible BW=120 Mbps
(w/ 3-Channel Bonding
Modems)
Max Permitted BW=20 Mbps
Average Busy-hour BW=600 kbps
Average Consumed BW=300 kbps
Min BW=0 Mbps
time
On-line
(busy-hour)
Off-line
On-line
Average Busy-hour BW & Average Consumed BW tend to be used
quite extensively for Traffic Engineering calculations (determining how
much Bandwidth Capacity is required to satisfy a given Service Group
(pool) of subscribers)
www.arrisi.com
5
ARRIS Investor Conference
Max Permitted Bandwidth Trends for Modems
(First Charted in 2008)
Max Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(2006-1982)
(2016-2006)
100G
After Curve-Fitting, the Past 25-years Show a
Constant Increase of ~1.5x every year...
resulting in Max Permitted BW=288 Mbps
in 2016
10G
1G
100M
1M
100k
9.6 kbps
10k
1k
100
100 Gbps
10 Gbps
???
1 Gbps
~288 Mbps
50 Mbps
12 Mbps
12 Mbps
10M
1.2 kbps
2.4 kbps
300 bps
5 Mbps
1 Mbps
256 kbps
512 kbps
56 kbps
128 kbps
28 kbps
33 kbps
The Era of
14.4 kbps
Cable Modems
= 5M/300
= 288M/5M
The Era of
Wideband
Cable Modems
The Era of
Dial-Up Modems
10
Year
1
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
6
2006
2010
2014 2016
Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due:
Nielsen’s Law of
Internet Bandwidth (1998)
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ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Bandwidth Trends and Predictions
10G
The past 29-years show a constant
bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year...
1G
100M
250000000
200 Mbps
~300 Mbps ?
50 Mbps
12 Mbps
10M
200000000
5 Mbps
1 Mbps
512 kbps
1M
256 kbps
56 kbps
128 kbps
28 kbps
33 kbps
9.6 kbps
The Era of
14.4 kbps
Cable Modems
2.4 kbps
1.2 kbps
100k
10k
1k
100
Modem Bandwidth (bps) vs
Year
The Era of
Wideband
Cable Modems
Bandwidth (bps)
Max DS Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps)
100G
300 bps
10
The Era of
Dial-Up
Modems
1986
1990
100000000
50000000
1
1982
150000000
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014 2016
Year
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
8
Average Bandwidth Trends for Modems
(First Charted in 2008)
Average Downstream Bandwidth for Modems
(1.5)
100M
(2016-2007)
= 3.5M/90k
Assume a Constant Increase of ~1.5x every year
10M
3.5 Mbps
(A ~10x increase
over the Avg. BW
of Today)
1M
456 kbps
135 kbps
100k
90 kbps
10k
30 kbps
Useful for estimating the required
Bandwidth for a Service Group
Per-sub Bandwidth must rise…
Bandwidth
# Subs
Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2016 Sanity Check: Predicted Concurrency=(Avg BW)/(Max Permitted BW)=3.5/288= ~1.2%...
This roughly matches the predictions from a Comcast conference paper:
Saifur Rahman, "DOCSIS® Migration Methodology: From A to B to 3", Communication
Technology (SCTE, Vol. 24, No. 11, November 2007), pp. 34-40.
9
Example Of How Some MSOs Might Choose To
Manage Their BW/Subscriber Metric
800 Home
Service Group
(320 subs)
CMTS
2008
Fiber Node
40 Mbps
Avg DS BW per sub
= 40 Mbps/320 subs
= 125 kbps/sub
30 Mbps
As more Bandwidth per
Subscriber is Needed...
CMTS
80 Mbps Bonding Group
2011
40 Mbps
40 Mbps
30 Mbps
30 Mbps
60 Mbps Bonding Group
10
400 Home
Service Group
(160 subs)
Fiber Node
Avg DS BW per sub
= 80 Mbps/160 subs
= 500 kbps/sub
Extended View of HSD Downstream
Bandwidth Trends (Per Subscriber)
Max. Downstream BW/sub
100G
100G
~73 Gbps?
10G
10G
The past 29-years show a constant
bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year...
200 Mbps
1G
100M
50 Mbps
12 Mbps
10M
1 Mbps
1M
256 kbps
512 kbps
56 kbps
128 kbps
28 kbps
100k
10k
9.6 kbps
1.2 kbps
1k
100
5 Mbps
33 kbps
14.4 kbps
2.4 kbps
300 bps
10
The Era
The Era of
The Era of
of
Wideband
Cable Modems
Dial-Up
Cable Modems
Modem
s
1
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2022
2014
2030
2006
2018
2010
2026
2002
Year
Avg DS Bandwidth for Single Modem ((bps)
Max DS Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps)
Avg. Downstream BW/sub
1G
~731 Mbps?
100M
10M
Assume that DS Tavg is 220 kbps in
2010 and grows by 1.5x per year
1M
100k
10k
1k
100
10
1
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Year
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
11
2030
A Philosophical Side-Bar on Downstream
Bandwidth Growth (Better Done Over Beers)
•
•
Some argue that we will soon hit an asymptotic limit in Downstream Bandwidth
Growth due to the limit of the human eye and mind to absorb information
Ex: If a 20 Mbps, 3D-HD, H.264 video feed is sent to (on average) 2.3 people
per home, then each home should be satiated with an average bandwidth offer
of
(20 Mbps)*(2.3)=46 Mbps…
which we predict we will hit by ~2023 (in ~12 years).
•
Maybe… BUT…
− What about the impact of DVR pumping bandwidth?
− What about the impact of cloud technologies (like Apples iCloud)?
− What about machine-to-machine transfers for video search engines looking
for our optimal content for each night?
− What about holography?
− What about the smell & touch & taste technologies that are yet-to-be
invented?
•
It may be a while before we hit the asymptotic limit…
Source: ARRIS Estimates
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ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Upstream Bandwidth Growth
Max US Permitted Bandwidth
for Modems (bps)
The Past 10 years Show a
Constant Increase of
~1.1x every year...
The Era of
Wideband
Cable Modems
100G
10G
The Era of
Cable Modems
1G
100M
???
10M
Will that pace continue?
Recent activity suggests
an accellerating rate of
increase… we will
assume it will increase
to the 1.5x growth rate in
the next slide.
1 Mbps
1M
100k
128 kbps
450 kbps
768 kbps
5 Mbps
10k
1k
100
10
1998
2002
13
2006
2010
2014 2016
Year
Extended View of HSD Upstream
Bandwidth Trends (Per Subscriber)
Max. Upstream BW/sub
Avg. Upstream BW/sub
100G
100G
~14.6 Gbps?
1G
100M
10M
10G
Avg US Bandwidth for Single Modem (bps)
Max US Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps)
10G
Assume the US Tmax is always
1/5 of the DS Tmax
(ex: 50 Mbps DS tier has
10 Mbps US today)
1M
100k
10k
1k
100
1G
~241 Mbps?
100M
10M
1M
100k
10k
1k
100
10
10
1
1
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Year
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
Assume that US Tavg is 73 kbps in
2010 and grows by 1.5x per year
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2030
2026
Year
14
Some Notes On Upstream Bandwidth
•
Upstream Bandwidth is comprised of two types of traffic:
Protocol Messages (ex: HTTP GETs, TCP ACKs, etc.)
− Uploads (ex: P2P torrents, Web-Page inputs, FTP transfers)
−
•
The Protocol Message Bandwidth is predictable and
almost calculable (if you know the Downstream Bandwidth
& assume typical TCP ACK behavior):
US Protocol Message BW = ~DS BW * (64 bytes/ACK pkt)/(2*1500 bytes/TCP pkt)
= ~DS BW * (0.0213)
= ~2% * DS BW
•
The Upload Bandwidth is harder to predict… it is highly
dependent on the popularity of apps at any given time
Ex: When P2P was big in 2008, US BW was ~41% of DS BW
− Ex: When OTT IP Video became big in 2010, US BW dropped to ~28% of
DS BW
−
Source: ARRIS Estimates
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ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Over-The-Top (OTT) Streaming Media Is
Dominating the DOCSIS HSD Growth
Per-Subscriber Avg. Bandwidth Is
Being Rapidly Increased
Peer-to-Peer
Other Protocols
0
• The traffic mix is changing fast… Service Providers must respond quickly
• The ratio of Downstream-to-Upstream bandwidth is growing as IP Video
increases… ~2.4 in 2008 and ~3.5 in 2010
16
Sep-11
Streaming Media
Web Browsing
January-11
Aug-10
January-10
40
Jul-09
0%
80
Jun-08
20%
Note slope change
due to OTT video
(since 2009)
Apr-07
40%
120
Mar-06
60%
Downstream Bandwidth/Sub (kbps)
Upstream Bandwidth/Sub (kbps)
Feb-05
80%
160
Jan-04
Percent of Total Bandwidth
100%
Source for both graphs: Top 5 US MSO
Avg Bandwidth/Sub (kbps) Per Service Group
Mix of Traffic
Protocol Types vs. Time
Bandwidth Trends for
Different Traffic Mixes
Mix of Traffic Types vs Time
160
140
Amount of Bandwidth
120
100
Other Protocols
80
Web Browsing
Peer-to-Peer
60
Streaming Media
40
20
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Date
17
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
IP Video Trends Over Time
May 2010 – March 2011
Avg IP Video from the Internet
20.00%
18.00%
16.00%
% of Overall Traffic
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
5/1/2010
6/1/2010
You Tube
7/1/2010
Flash
8/1/2010
Itunes
9/1/2010
RSTP
10/1/2010 11/1/2010 12/1/2010
Netflix
Windows Media
Hulu
1/1/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
Unbox
Source: Top 10 US MSO
18
Overall IP Video Traffic Details
(March 2011)
Internet to Subscribers
Subscribers to Internet
Max Downstream Bandwidth Consumption (Gb/s)
Overall IP Video Downstream
185.67
Percentage of
Overall Traffic
Netflix (Add all Netflix Values)
65.73
18.19%
You Tube (Add all You tubes and Google
Video)
52.36
14.49%
Flash (Add Flash and Shockwave)
25.12
6.95%
RSTP (RTSP, RTMP and RTSP over UDP)
13.26
3.67%
Itunes
10.45
2.89%
Windows Media (WMP and MS ASF)
5.66
1.57%
Hulu
2.15
0.60%
19
Max Upstream Bandwidth Consumption (Gb/s)
Overall IP Video Upstream
You Tube (Add all You Tube and
Google Video)
Netflix (Add all Netflix Values)
Flash (Add Flash and Shockwave)
RSTP (RTSP, RTMP and RTSP over UDP)
Slingbox
Itunes
Windows Media (WMP and MS ASF)
CCTV
Qvod
Hulu
Source: Top 10 US MSO
6.64
Percentage of
Overall Traffic
1.59
1.52%
1.44
0.98
0.93
0.40
0.27
0.18
0.17
0.11
0.08
1.38%
0.94%
0.89%
0.39%
0.26%
0.17%
0.17%
0.11%
0.07%
Snapshot of Packet Size Trends
20
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Bandwidth Trend Differences Between
Different Service Providers
Average Downstream Bandwidth per
Subscriber (kbps)
Bandwidth Trends at Five
Service Providers in 2010
33% Growth
160
150
140
130
33% Growth
120
100% Growth
This may represent an
“un-congested” subscriber’s
bandwidth level in 2011
110
100
90
60% Growth
80
40% Growth
70
These may represent
“congested” subscriber
bandwidth levels in 2011
60
50
1Q10
1Q11
Source: Top 10 US MSO
Subscriber Satisfaction Issues Will Drive Service Providers
to Increase Investment to Retain and Attract Customers
21
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Agenda
•
Introduction
• Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the
Future)
• Networking Equipment Trends
• Conclusions
22
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Why Discuss Equipment In A Talk On
Bandwidth Trends?
•
In order for the Bandwidth Trends to materialize, the
available Equipment MUST be able to support the
predicted Bandwidths at acceptable cost levels
•
We will explore this topic from the point-of-view of DOCSIS
CMTS Equipment, which serve 20-50 “Service Groups”
•
For an Typical Single High-Speed Data “Service Group”
with ~500 Homes Passed, MSOs predict:
2008: 1 DOCSIS Downstream (~40 Mbps)
− 2011: 4 DOCSIS Downstreams (~160 Mbps)
− 2015: ~20 DOCSIS Downstreams (~800 Mbps)
−
Source: ARRIS Estimates
23
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Downstreams Per DS-SG Bandwidth Trends
(for ~500-Homes Passed DS-SG)
24
CCAP… The Cable Industry Response
to Rapid Bandwidth Growth
Rear View
16U Chassis
Exhaust Air
−
−
−
•
Primary Switch/Route Engine
Secondary Switch/Route Engine
Fully redundant design, no single point of failure
Separate upstream and downstream modules
supporting dynamic mix of services
(Implemented using
high density UCH w/
MCX-75 connectors)
Power Supply
Modules
Front View
16U Chassis
Terabit-plus capacity in backplane
Extreme Density
−
−
−
•
24 Ports/US Card
Future Proof
−
•
12 Ports/DS Card
32/48/64 Narrowcast QAMs/Port
96 Broadcast QAMs/Port
Highly Available
−
−
•
CMTS (HSD, VoIP)
UEQ (VoD, SDV, M-CMTS)
IP Video
EPON
US Redundancy
US
US
US
US
US
−
Primary 100-Gig-E Ports
Secondary 100-Gig-E Ports
DS Redundancy
DS
DS
DS
DS
DS
Converged Cable Access Platform
XR2
XR1
•
20x-80x increase in capacity
14x-60x power reduction
20x-80x space reduction
Support for up to ~6.3 Gbps of Downstream
Bandwidth to each Service Group
The CCAP Architecture Has Been Designed to Carry the
Cable Industry Deep Into the Next Decade and Beyond...
25
Fan Modules
Intake Air
CMTS Edge Router Evolution
Today
Downstream Channels Per Service Group
1 DS
8 DS
4 DS
16 DS
32-160 DS
Ongoing Capacity Expansion based on Moore’s Law
2004
26
2006
2008
2010
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
2012
2014
2016
Moore’s Law & a Perfect Storm of New
Technologies Will Enable Required Features
for this Decade
Building
Blocks
•
•
•
•
•
2007 Capabilities
2011 Capabilities
Increase
L2/L3 Switch
Chips
60 Gbps
640 Gbps
10x
High-Speed
Digital-to-Analog
Converters
1 Downstream
Channel per DAC
100+ Downstream
Channels per DAC
100x
Burst Receivers
2 Upstream
Channels per
Receiver
12 Upstream
Channels per
Receiver
6x
Processor Chips
2 Cores per Chip
32 Cores per Chip
16x
Allows higher capacities within a given chassis size
Allows increased densities
Allows for a single chassis that supports all services
Allows Lower Cost/Channel
Allows Next-Gen Networking Equipment to support the Need
27
Agenda
•
Introduction
• Observed Bandwidth Trends (& Predictions for the
Future)
• Networking Equipment Trends
• Conclusions
28
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
Conclusions
29
•
Bandwidth growth on Service Provider networks has been
growing exponentially for ~30 years
•
The Downstream growth rate has been roughly 1.5x per year…
Web-Surfing was the driver of growth in 2000… P2P was the
driver of growth in 2008… IP Video is the driver of growth today
•
The growth is expected to continue for many years into the
future as new “yet-to-be-invented” applications are created
•
Network equipment providers are capitalizing on Moore’s Law to
provide the capacities that will support this growth
•
The Internet will continue to grow to support the newly-evolving
Applications & the higher Bandwidth Goals (ex: “1 Gbps to every
home”) that will dominate the markets of the future
ARRIS Talk for IEEE - September 2011
THANK YOU