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Artificial Life Simulation of the Textile/Apparel Marketplace:
An Innovative Approach to Strategizing about Evolving Markets
INVESTIGATORS: E.L. Brannon (leader), P.V. Ulrich, L.J. Anderson, T. Marshal
(Auburn); R. Alan Donaldson (NC State)
ABSTRACT: The marketplace can be considered a complex, spontaneous, adaptive,
dynamic, self-organizing system--that is, the action of agents (consumers, firms, etc.)
creates a system in a rolling equilibrium that never locks into fixed stability and never
dissolves into totally chaotic turbulence. Artificial life simulation techniques are now
being applied to socio-cultural evolution and adaptive social interaction behaviors. The
major theme in all modeling of complex adaptive systems is that a system of agents
following very simple rules evolve complex behaviors. Artificial life simulations are
electronic laboratories for the study of emergent behavior in complex, self-organizing
systems like the textile/apparel marketplace. The value of computer-based
experiments lies in outcomes that are counterintuitive. Because intuition about
dynamical systems can often be poor, artificial life simulations can be very helpful in
discovering consequences underlying assumptions derived from other methods of
inquiry. The primary objective of this project is to facilitate and encourage active dialog
within the industry on artificial life simulation as an innovative approach to modeling
marketplace dynamics and strategizing about evolving markets.
GOAL: This project uses artificial life (ALife) techniques to investigate the nonequilibrium environment of the textile/apparel marketplace. The project will involve
academics and industry executives in the development of ALife simulations. The goals
of the project are to: 1) develop ALife simulations as springboards to strategizing about
evolving markets, 2) foster the development of ALife simulation expertise within the
industry, and 3) investigate ALife simulation as a method of inquiry into socio-cultural
evolution and adaptive social interaction behaviors.
INTRODUCTION TO ARTIFICIAL LIFE SIMULATION (ALife):
The marketplace can be considered a complex, spontaneous, adaptive, dynamic, selforganizing system--that is, the action of agents (consumers, firms, etc.) creates a
system in a rolling equilibrium that never locks into fixed stability and never dissolves
into totally chaotic turbulence. Through the agents’ mutual accommodation and mutual
rivalry, new structures and behavior patterns emerge continuously. Standard methods
of inquiry and mathematics appear inadequate to analyze such complex adaptive
systems (CAS).
Modeling CAS using ALife has developed only in the last ten years. In that time
researchers have developed a toolkit and demonstrated simulation of biological
phenomena (animal behavior, insect-colony dynamics, ecological dynamics) as a
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change in a non-equilibrium environment.
2) Leverages expertise and accelerates understanding of marketplace phenomena.
3) Utilizes ALife simulation as a new method of inquiry into complex marketplace
phenomena.
REPORT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY:
The team has initiated the design process for a simulation based on diffusion of
information/diffusion of innovation. Several other core theories in the field (theory of
the firm, wheel of retailing, etc.) are being assessed as targets for simulation.
Because ALife simulation software requires UNIX operating system and the X Window
interface, a computer has been reintegrated for use exclusively for simulation.
A member of the team participated in the Complex Systems Summer School sponsored
by the Santa Fe Institute. Stuart Kauffman, one of the founders of the study of complex
systems, lectured on the origins of self-organization in physical, biological, and social
systems. John Miller spoke on the economy as a self-organizing system. Chris
Langton, the creator of ALife simulation, demonstrated the latest version of SWARM
software. The team will be working with a beta version of SWARM as soon as it is
available (late Summer, 1995).
In furtherance of the project goal to encourage teamwork on ALife simulation projects,
the team will sponsor a seminar in association with the International Textile and
Apparel Association (ITAA) in Pasadena, California in mid-October. The purpose of
the seminar is to:
0
introduce ALife simulation techniques and explore their relevance to
textile/apparel scholarship.
0
evaluate theoretical/empirical topics suitable for Artificial Life Simulation (i.e.:
fashion theory, consumer behavior, textile/apparel consumption, trade patterns,
and quick-response industry partnerships).
0
demonstrate the ALife simulation prototypes designed by the National Textile
Center (NTC) team.
0
encourage participants to join in the simulation design process.
0
establish an Internet-linkage for the exchange of information and to facilitate
design activities.
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The seminar has been limited to only 24 participants to encourage active interaction
between participants in assessing ALife simulation. The participants were selected
from the ITAA membership based on their publication and presentation record in areas
identified as appropriate for ALife simulation.
Because the primary objective of this project is to facilitate and encourage active dialog
within the industry on ALife simulation as an innovative approach to modeling
marketplace dynamics and strategizing about evolving markets, the team plans to
follow this seminar with others over the course of the ALife project to encourage
participation in designing simulations and assessing the results. Progress reports will
be presented at industry and academic professional meetings. Industry experts will be
essential participants in the conferences and partners on teams developing
simulations.
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National Textile Center Annual Report: August 1995