Introduction We have seen how to evaluate a consumer’s wtp for a market-induced price change: we measure it (with appropriate cautions, primarily that we treat it as an approximation) by the change in consumer’s surplus, the area under the demand function between the two price horizontals. Producer’s Surplus Philip A. Viton We now address to the remaining question in market-induced (price) changes: how to evaluate the bene…ts to producers or …rms. Fortunately this is easy, and has none of the complications of consumer’s surplus. November 12, 2014 The obviously correct measure of bene…ts to …rms is pro…ts, and we measure a project’s impact on a …rm by the change in its pro…ts. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 1 / 27 Pro…ts Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 2 / 27 Total Costs: Fixed and Variable What are pro…ts? Consider a …rm selling x1 units of output at price p1 . Typically a …rm will have both …xed (TFC ) and variable (TVC ) costs. Its Total Revenues (TR) are p1 x1 . In this case we can re-write total costs as: Its Total Costs are TC . TC = TFC + TVC Then pro…ts are Total Revenues minus Total Costs or: Π = TR Then we have: Π = TR TC . (TFC + TVC ) Note that this is an empirically observable quantity. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 3 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 4 / 27 Change in Pro…ts (I) Change in Pro…ts (II) So the change in pro…ts is: Suppose a project changes revenues from TR a to TR b and costs from TC a to TC b . ∆Π = (TR b ∆Π = Π Π b = (TR = (TR b = (TR b TVC a ) PS = TR TVC a (TR a TVC a ) (TFC + TVC b )) (TR a TVC b ) (TR a TVC a ) is called the …rm’s Producer Surplus. So the change in the …rm’s pro…ts (∆Π) is the same as the change in producer’s surplus: TC b ) (TFC + TVC a )) ∆Π = PS b note that TVC by de…nition is the same in the pre- and post-project settings. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 5 / 27 Producer’s Surplus (I) PS a = ∆PS Note that since the change in pro…ts is observable, so is producer’s surplus: unlike consumer’s surplus we don’t need to appeal to any notions of approximation to some theoretically correct measure. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 6 / 27 Producer’s Surplus (II) It is important to understand that while the change in pro…ts equals the change in producer’s surplus, pro…ts and producer’s surplus are not the same. The two di¤er by the amount of …xed costs: Π = TR = TR = PS costs (which will be the value of the constant or intercept in a cost-function regression equation) is often imprecisely estimated. (TVC + TFC ) TVC TFC TFC CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus We now have two equivalent ways of measuring a project’s impact on …rms: the change in pro…ts (∆Π) and the change in producer’s surplus (∆PS). Producer’s surplus has two advantages: 1. It does not require us to understand …xed costs; and empirically, …xed 2. Total variable costs are the area under the marginal cost curve from x1 = 0 (zero output) to x1a (observed output). See the next slide. So if we can estimate marginal costs, we are in a position to compute TVC. But since for project evaluation we will always be looking at the change in pro…ts induced by the project, this won’t matter. Philip A. Viton (TR a The di¤erence between total revenue and total variable cost, Using our decomposition of costs, we have: b TVC b ) November 12, 2014 7 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 8 / 27 Total Variable Costs Project The …gure shows a competitive …rm’s upward-sloping marginal cost curve. $ MC $ If it is a pro…t-maximizing price-taker, then, if it faces market price p1a its output will be x1a . MC p1b Total revenue is p1a x1a (hatched). p1a 0 x1 x1a Total variable costs are the area under MC from x1 = 0 to x1 = x1a ( dark shade). x1 0 CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 9 / 27 Change in Producer’s Surplus $ MC b 1 p a x1 0 Philip A. Viton x1a The new total revenue is the hatched area, total variable costs are darkly shaded and producer’s surplus is lightly shaded. x1b So producer’s surplus is the area above MC but below the price horizontal (light shade). Philip A. Viton p1 Suppose our project has the e¤ect of raising the market price to p1b . The …rm responds by raising its output to x1b . x1b Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 10 / 27 Multiproduct Producer’s Surplus Comparing the previous pictures, we can see that the change in producer’s surplus is the area to the left of the marginal cost curve and between the two price horizontals. When a …rm produces several products and the project changes their prices, we naturally measure the full impact as the change in producer’s surplus in each of the product markets. So: Note that this is valid only for a competitive …rm that sees its market price change with no shift in its cost curves. It can be shown that ∆PS is not path-dependent: that is, for a multiproduct …rm you will get the same answer in whatever order you do the calculation (unlike consumer’s surplus). CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 ∆PS = ∆PS1 + ∆PS2 + . . . (just as we did for consumer’s surplus). 11 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 12 / 27 Market Impacts — Full Analysis Example — Monopolization We are now in a position to evaluate the full impact of a policy that changes a market price from its pre-project level p a to its post project level pb For the impact on consumers we use the change in consumer’s surplus: ∆CS = CS (p b ) CS (p a ) As we know from general microeconomics, monopolization has two impacts: it reduces the quantity produced and increases the price consumers pay for the product. For the impact on …rms we use the change in producer’s surplus (aggregating over …rms, if necessary): ∆PS = PS (p b ) Intuitively, this is a bad thing ; but not so fast. We would naturally assume that the price increase leads to an increase in pro…ts: and might not this gain to producers outweigh the loss to consumers? PS (p a ) By using our new tools, we will now see that this is not so. Monopolization is an overall net “bad” to the economy. And then the full impact is: ∆W = ∆CS + ∆PS Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 13 / 27 Monopolization — Setup $ Σ MC=S pb pa MR xb xa Philip A. Viton D x As an example of how all this …ts together, let’s consider a policy that allows an industry to become monopolized. So our pre-project state (a) is competition, and our post-project state (b) is monopolization. Note that we are assuming that this is the only change in the economy. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 14 / 27 Monopolization – Impact on Consumers The …gure shows the basic position: under competition, demand = supply, where supply (S) is the sum of the …rms’ marginal costs ; the result is price p a and output x a . $ Σ MC=S pb pa Under monopolization, pro…t-maximizing output is governed by the condition MC = MR, leading to output x b . The monopolist prices to sell all output, resulting in a price p b . CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 As usual, the impact on consumers is ∆CS = signed area under the demand function between the two price horizontals. a b MR This is the shaded area, and it is important to note that it is a negative quantity. D x xb xa 15 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 16 / 27 Producer’s Surplus under Competition Producer’s Surplus under Monopoly $ $ Σ MC=S Σ MC=S Pre-project producer’s surplus PS a is TR ( = p a x a ) TVC (= area under MC from x = 0 to x = x a ). pb pa Similarly, relative to the post-project monopoly equilibrium (x b , p b ), producer’s surplus PS b is the shaded area. pb pa In the …gure, PS a is shaded. MR b x D MR x a x CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 17 / 27 Change in Producer’s Surplus Philip A. Viton $ c (+) d(-) MR Philip A. Viton D x November 12, 2014 18 / 27 $ Note that this has two parts: a rectangle (c ), representing where PS b is more than PS a and hence has a positive sign ; and a triangle (d ) representing part of PS a not included in PS b , so this has a negative sign. Σ MC=S CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus Net Impact (I) Comparing the two previous …gures, ∆PS is the shaded area xb xa x xb xa Philip A. Viton pb pa D Σ MC=S pb pa Obviously the total e¤ect is positive : as we’d expect, monopoly increases …rm pro…ts. CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 For the overall net impact, we compare ∆PS to ∆CS. First, area a in the consumer’s surplus picture exactly matches area c in the producer’s surplus picture. The signs are opposite (a is negative, c is positive) so they cancel. b d MR D x xb xa 19 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 20 / 27 Net Impact (II) Net Impact (III) Σ MC=S pb pa b d MR b x Philip A. Viton $ Second, (negative) area b from the consumer’s surplus picture is not included in the producer’s surplus picture. So we need to include it here. $ D x The result is that the overall change in welfare ∆W is the shaded area. Σ MC=S pb pa Third, (negative) area d from the producer’s surplus picture is not included in the consumer’s surplus picture. So we need to include that, too Note that both portions of this are negative quantities. b d MR So our result is that ∆W < 0 : monopolization de…nitely decreases social welfare. D x xb xa a x CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 21 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 22 / 27 November 12, 2014 24 / 27 Conclusion Computational Appendix We conclude that going from a situation of competition to one of monopoly has an unambiguously negative overall impact. In the literature, this is referred to as the Deadweight Loss of monopolization. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 23 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus Computational Considerations (I) Computational Considerations (II) For example, suppose in the linear case you have: In the context of our monopolization example, suppose you need to calculate the pre-project equilibrium (p a , x a ). Conceptually, you want to equate supply (= MC) and demand. Note that the marginal cost function is MC (x ) : that is, it takes a quantity and tells us its marginal cost, in dollars. But the demand function is x (p ) : that is, it takes a price and tells us the demand (quantity) at that price. So you can’t just equate x (p ) and MC (x ) : that would be meaningless. Marginal cost: MC (x ) = α0 + α1 x ( α1 > 0) Demand: x (p ) = β0 + β1 p ( β1 < 0) The in order to …nd the competitive equilibrium you can invert the demand function, giving p = (x β0 )/β1 and then equate demand and supply: (x β0 )/β1 = α0 + α1 x which is an equation in quantity only. Alternatively, because under competition p = MC , you can feed in the marginal cost equation into the demand function: Instead, you must …rst invert (solve) either the demand function or the marginal cost function, so they both tell us the same kind of thing (output or money). Then you can equate the two. x = β0 + β1 p = β0 + β1 ( α0 + α1 x ) which is also an equation in x only; and solve. Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 25 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 26 / 27 Philip A. Viton CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 27 / 27 Computational Considerations (III) The solution turns out to be (assuming α1 β1 6= 1) : x= β0 + α0 β1 1 α1 β1 And the competitive price (= marginal cost of producing this output) is: p = α0 + α1 x = α0 + α1 Philip A. Viton β0 + α0 β1 1 α1 β1 CRP 6600 — Producer’ () s Surplus November 12, 2014 27 / 27