Contents
Chapter 1:
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Chapter 2:
2.1
2.2
2.3
What Is Simulation?
1
Modeling
1.1.1
What's Being Modeled?
1.1.2
How About Just Playing with the System?
1.1.3
Sometimes You Can't (or Shouldn't) Play with the System
1.1.4
Physical Models
1.1.5
Logical (or Mathematical) Models
1.1.6
What Do You Do with a Logical Model?
Computer Simulation
1.2.1
Popularity and Advantages
1.2.2
The Bad News
1.2.3
Different Kinds of Simulations
How Simulations Get Done
1.3.1
By Hand
1.3.2
Programming in General-Purpose Languages
1.3.3
Simulation Languages
1.3.4
High-Level Simulators
1.3.5
Where Arena Fits In
When Simulations Are Used
1.4.1
The Early Years
1.4.2
The Formative Years
1.4.3
The Recent Past
1.4.4
The Present
1.4.5
The Future
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Fundamental Simulation Concepts
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An Example
2.1.1
The System
2.1.2
Goals of the Study
Analysis Options
2.2.1
Educated Guessing
2.2.2
Queueing Theory
2.2.3
Mechanistic Simulation
Pieces of a Simulation Model
2.3.1
Entities
2.3.2
Attributes
2.3.3
(Global) Variables
2.3.4
Resources
2.3.5
Queues
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2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
Chapter 3:
3.1
3.2
3.3
2.3.6
Statistical Accumulators
2.3.7
Events
2.3.8
Simulation Clock
2.3.9
Starting and Stopping
Event-Driven Hand Simulation
2.4.1
Outline of the Action
2.4.2
Keeping Track of Things
2.4.3
Carrying It Out
2.4.4
Finishing Up
Event- and Process-Oriented Simulation
Randomness in Simulation
2.6.1
Random Input, Random Output
2.6.2
Replicating the Example
2.6.3
Comparing Alternatives
Simulating with Spreadsheets
2.7.1
A Newsvendor Problem
2.7.2
A Single-Server Queue
2.7.3
Extensions and Limitations
Overview of a Simulation Study
Exercises
A Guided Tour Through Arena
Starting Up
Exploring the Arena Window
3.2.1
Opening a Model
3.2.2
Basic Interaction and Pieces of the Arena Window
3.2.3
Panning, Zooming, Viewing, and Aligning in the Flowchart
View
3.2.4
Modules
3.2.5
Internal Model Documentation
Browsing Through an Existing Model: Model 3-1
3.3.1
The Create Flowchart Module
3.3.2
The Entity Data Module
3.3.3
The Process Flowchart Module
3.3.4
The Resource Data Module
3.3.5
The Queue Data Module
3.3.6
Animating Resources and Queues
3.3.7
The Dispose Flowchart Module
3.3.8
Connecting Flowchart Modules
3.3.9
Dynamic Plots
3.3.10 Dressing Things Up
3.3.11 Setting the Run Conditions
3.3.12 Running It
3.3.13 Viewing the Reports
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3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
Chapter 4:
4.1
4.2
4.3
Building Model 3-1 Yourself
3.4.1
New Model Window and Basic Process Panel
3.4.2
Place and Connect the Flowchart Modules
3.4.3
The Create Flowchart Module
3.4.4
Displays
3.4.5
The Entity Data Module
3.4.6
The Process Flowchart Module
3.4.7
The Resource and Queue Data Modules
3.4.8
Resource Animation
3.4.9
The Dispose Flowchart Module
3.4.10 Dynamic Plots
3.4.11 Window Dressing
3.4.12 The Run > Setup Dialog Boxes
3.4.13 Establishing Named Views
Case Study: Specialized Serial Processing vs. Generalized Parallel
Processing
3.5.1
Model 3-2: Serial Processing - Specialized Separated Work
3.5.2
Model 3-3: Parallel Processing - Generalized Integrated Work
3.5.3
Models 3-4 and 3-5: The Effect of Task-Time Variability
More on Menus, Toolbars, Drawing, and Printing
3.6.1
Menus
3.6.2
Toolbars
3.6.3
Drawing
3.6.4
Printing
Help!
More on Running Models
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs
Model 4-1: An Electronic Assembly and Test System
4.1.1
Developing a Modeling Approach
4.1.2
Building the Model
4.1.3
Running the Model
4.1.4
Viewing the Results
Model 4-2: The Enhanced Electronic Assembly and Test System
4.2.1
Expanding Resource Representation: Schedules and States
4.2.2
Resource Schedules
4.2.3
Resource Failures
4.2.4
Frequencies
4.2.5
Results of Model 4-2
Model 4-3: Enhancing the Animation
4.3.1
Changing Animation Queues
4.3.2
Changing Entity Pictures
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4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
Chapter 5:
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
4.3.3
Adding Resource Pictures
4.3.4
Adding Variables and Plots
Model 4-4: The Electronic Assembly and Test System with Part Transfers
4.4.1
Some New Arena Concepts: Stations and Transfers
4.4.2
Adding the Route Logic
4.4.3
Altering the Animation
Finding and Fixing Errors
Input Analysis: Specifying Model Parameters and Distributions
4.6.1
Deterministic vs. Random Inputs
4.6.2
Collecting Data
4.6.3
Using Data
4.6.4
Fitting Input Distributions via the Input Analyzer
4.6.5
No Data?
4.6.6
Nonstationary Arrival Processes
4.6.7
Multivariate and Correlated Input Data
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Modeling Detailed Operations
Model 5-1: A Simple Call Center System
New Modeling Issues
5.2.1
Customer Rejections and Balking
5.2.2
Three-Way Decisions
5.2.3
Variables and Expressions
5.2.4
Storages
5.2.5
Terminating or Steady-State
Modeling Approach
Building the Model
5.4.1
Create Arrivals and Direct to Service
5.4.2
Arrival Cutoff Logic
5.4.3
Technical Support Calls
5.4.4
Sales Calls
5.4.5
Order-Status Calls
5.4.6
System Exit and Run Setup
5.4.7
Animation
Model 5-2: The Enhanced Call Center System
5.5.1
The New Problem Description
5.5.2
New Concepts
5.5.3
Defining the Data
5.5.4
Modifying the Model
Model 5-3: The Enhanced Call Center with More Output Performance
Measures
Model 5-4: An (s, S) Inventory Simulation
5.7.1
System Description
5.7.2
Simulation Model
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5.8
5.9
Chapter 6:
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
Chapter 7:
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
Chapter 8:
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Statistical Analysis of Output from Terminating Simulations
Time Frame of Simulations
Strategy for Data Collection and Analysis
Confidence Intervals for Terminating Systems
Comparing Two Scenarios
Evaluating Many Scenarios with the Process Analyzer (PAN)
Searching for an Optimal Scenario with OptQuest
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Intermediate Modeling and Steady-State Statistical Analysis
Model 7-1: A Small Manufacturing System
7.1.1
New Arena Concepts
7.1.2
The Modeling Approach
7.1.3
The Data Modules
7.1.4
The Logic Modules
7.1.5
Animation
7.1.6
Verification
Statistical Analysis of Output from Steady-State Simulations
7.2.1
Warm-Up and Run Length
7.2.2
Truncated Replications
7.2.3
Batching in a Single Run
7.2.4
What To Do?
7.2.5
Other Methods and Goals for Steady-State Statistical Analysis
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Entity Transfer
Types of Entity Transfers
Model 8-1: The Small Manufacturing System with Resource-Constrained
Transfers
The Small Manufacturing System with Transporters
8.3.1
Model 8-2: The Modified Model 8-1 for Transporters
8.3.2
Model 8-3: Refining the Animation for Transporters
Conveyors
8.4.1
Model 8-4: The Small Manufacturing System with
Nonaccumulating Conveyors
8.4.2
Model 8-5: The Small Manufacturing System with
Accumulating Conveyors
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8.5
8.6
Chapter 9:
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
A Sampler of Further Modeling Issues and Techniques
Modeling Conveyors Using the Advanced Transfer Panel
9.1.1
Model 9-1: Finite Buffers at Stations
9.1.2
Model 9-2: Parts Stay on Conveyor During Processing
More on Transporters
Entity Reneging
9.3.1
Entity Balking and Reneging
9.3.2
Model 9-3: A Service Model with Balking and Reneging
Holding and Batching Entities
9.4.1
Modeling Options
9.4.2
Model 9-4: A Batching Process Example
Overlapping Resources
9.5.1
System Description
9.5.2
Model 9-5: A Tightly Coupled Production System
9.5.3
Model 9-6: Adding Part-Status Statistics
A Few Miscellaneous Modeling Issues
9.6.1
Guided Transporters
9.6.2
Parallel Queues
9.6.3
Decision Logic
Exercises
Chapter 10: Arena Integration and Customization
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
Model 10-1: Reading and Writing Data Files
10.1.1 Model 10-2: Reading Entity Arrivals from a Text File
10.1.2 Model 10-3 and Model 10-4: Reading and Writing Access
and Excel Files
10.1.3 Advanced Reading and Writing
VBA in Arena
10.2.1 Overview of ActiveX Automation and VBA
10.2.2 Built-in Arena VBA Events
10.2.3 Arena's Object Model
10.2.4 Arena's Macro Recorder
Model 10-5: Presenting Arrival Choices to the User
10.3.1 Modifying the Creation Logic
10.3.2 Designing the VBA UserForm
10.3.3 Displaying the Form and Setting Model Data
Model 10-6: Recording and Charting Model Results in Microsoft Excel
10.4.1 Setting Up Excel at the Beginning of the Run
10.4.2 Storing Individual Call Data Using the VBA Module
10.4.3 Charting the Results and Cleaning Up at the End of the Run
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10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
Creating Modules Using the Arena Professional Edition: Template 10-1
10.5.1 The Create from File Module
10.5.2 The Template Source File: Template 10-01.tpl
10.5.3 The Panel Icon and User View
10.5.4 The Module Logic and Operands
10.5.5 Uses of Templates
Real-time Integration
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Chapter 11: Continuous and Combined Discrete/Continuous Models
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
Modeling Simple Discrete/Continuous Systems
11.1.1 Model 11-1: A Simple Continuous System
11.1.2 Model 11-2: Interfacing Continuous and Discrete Logic
A Coal-Loading Operation
11.2.1 System Description
11.2.2 Modeling Approach
11.2.3 Model 11-3: Coal Loading with Continuous Approach
11.2.4 Model 11-4: Coal Loading with Flow Process
Continuous State-Change Systems
11.3.1 Model 11-5: A Soaking-Pit Furnace
11.3.2 Modeling Continuously Changing Rates
11.3.3 Arena's Approach for Solving Differential Equations
11.3.4 Building the Model
11.3.5 Defining the Differential Equations Using VBA
Summary and Forecast
Exercises
Chapter 12: Further Statistical Issues
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
Random-Number Generation
Generating Random Variates
12.2.1 Discrete
12.2.2 Continuous
Nonstationary Poisson Processes
Variance Reduction
12.4.1 Common Random Numbers
12.4.2 Other Methods
Sequential Sampling
12.5.1 Terminating Models
12.5.2 Steady-State Models
Designing and Executing Simulation Experiments
Exercises
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Chapter 13: Conducting Simulation Studies
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
A Successful Simulation Study
Problem Formulation
Solution Methodology
System and Simulation Specification
Model Formulation and Construction
Verification and Validation
Experimentation and Analysis
Presenting and Preserving the Results
Disseminating the Model
Appendix A: A Functional Specification for The Washington Post
A.l
A.2
A.3
A.4
A.5
A.6
Introduction
A.l.l Document Organization
A.l.2 Simulation Objectives
A.l.3 Purpose of the Functional Specification
A. 1.4 Use of the Model
A.l.5 Hardware and Software Requirements
System Description and Modeling Approach
A.2.1 Model Timeline
A.2.2 Presses
A.2.3 Product Types
A.2.4 Press Packaging Lines
A.2.5 Tray System
A.2.6 Truck Arrivals
A.2.7 Docks
A.2.8 Palletizers
A.2.9 Manual Insertion Process
Animation
Summary of Input and Output
A.4.1 Model Input
A.4.2 Model Output
Project Deliverables
A.5.1 Simulation Model Documentation
A.5.2 User's Manual
A.5.3 Model Validation
A.5.4 Animation
Acceptance
Appendix B: IIE/RA Contest Problems
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Appendix C: A Refresher on Probability and Statistics
C.l
C.2
C.3
C.4
C.5
C.6
C.7
Probability Basics
Random Variables
C.2.1 Basics
C.2.2 Discrete
C.2.3 Continuous
C.2.4 Joint Distributions, Covariance, Correlation, and Independence
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Point Estimation
Confidence Intervals
,
Hypothesis Tests
Exercises
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Appendix D: Arena's Probability Distributions
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Arena's Probability Distributions
Beta
Continuous
Discrete
Erlang
Exponential
Gamma
Johnson
Lognormal
Normal
Poisson
Triangular
Uniform
Weibull
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Appendix E: Academic Software Installation Instructions
E.l
E.2
E.3
Authorization to Copy Software
Installing the Arena Software
System Requirements
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References
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Index
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