Environmental Scan
140214
North West Regional College
Windows User
A. Saskatchewan Overview
Population
Maintaining the momentum gained over the last six years, the provincial population continued to
grow in 2013. At the end of October, the population was 1,114,000 (Figure 1).
Fig. 1. Saskatchewan Population, 1971 to 2013.
Over the five years from 2007 to 2012, Saskatchewan’s growth averaged 2.3% which is the
highest among the provinces.
International Migration
While immigration continues to provide a net gain of residents into the province its pace has
slowed. The first half of 2013 had 7% fewer people immigrate to the province compared to the
same period in 2012. Nevertheless, a net of 868 interprovincial and 7,266 international migrants
maintained a high level of newcomers to the province with help from the Saskatchewan
Immigrant Nominee Program. There are currently over 16,000 temporary foreign workers. The
province’s “2013 Progress Report on the Saskatchewan Plan for Growth”, reported that over
9,000 nominees became permanent residents in 2012, compared to 960 in 2006. This boosted
progress to the province’s goal to increase employment by 60,000 workers before the year 2020.
There were 142 unique individuals who received LINC training at North West Regional College
in the 2012-13 year. Seventy-eight percent were in the 25 to 44 age group. The same proportion
was married or in a common-law relationship. Those with 12 years of high school or less made
up 45% of these newcomers; 18% had a trade; 11% a diploma; and 15% had a degree. Over 25%
had neither French nor English ability.
In December 2012, there were 5,675 international students in the province, an increase of 2,158
since 2007. With the attention the province is receiving in the world with respect to employment
and growth prospects, recruitment of international students may be a viable consideration for
Battlefords and Meadow Lake campuses.
1
Interprovincial Migration
In total, international and interprovincial migration has resulted in 100,000 additional people
residing in the province since 2006. Saskatoon, Regina, Estevan, and North Battleford had the
highest rates of population growth from 2006 to 2011. However, the number of people leaving
Saskatchewan is increasing again.
Employment
After dropping sharply in 2001, employment has steadily risen at an average rate of 1.4%.
(Figure 2). This translates into 7,000 per year. Growth in 2012 was the equivalent of 11,200 new
jobs. Growth in 2013 was 18,000. This was the highest number of new jobs in one year since the
survey began in 1976. Growth in employment in 2012 shows the largest percentage gains were in
construction, resources, utilities, and professional, scientific and technical services.
Figure 2. Employment in Saskatchewan, 1976 to 2012.
Source: Stats Can. Labour Force Survey, and SaskTrends Monitor.
In Oct. 2013, there were 9,950 people receiving employment insurance (EI) in Saskatchewan, a
drop of 1,400 people (12.3 per cent) compared to October 2012.
Aside from this uncertainty surrounding potash, Saskatchewan’s economy remains relatively
strong. Saskatchewan continues to enjoy strong job growth and low unemployment as thousands
of new jobs are being created in a number of sectors. The November Labour Force Report by
Statistics Canada shows Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate is 3.8 per cent.
2
According to the provincial government’s “Industrial Employment Outlook, 2013 to 2017”
94,500 employment opportunities are expected to arise over the five-year period. Of these,
35,000 will result from economic expansion and 59,500 from attrition. These include year-overyear employment increases of 6,800 in transportation and warehousing, 3,600 in professional,
scientific and technical services, 1,600 in manufacturing, and 1,400 in agriculture.
Figure 3 shows that growth over the next four years is expected to occur across all sectors.
In terms of the overall magnitude, total employment opportunities are expected to be highest
in ‘other services’, health care and social assistance, and trades, with attrition accounting for
more than half in each case. With respect to growth rates, utilities, accommodation and food
services, and transportation and warehousing are expected to grow the fastest.
Fig. 3. Forecasted expansion of industries, 2013 to 2017.
Source: 2013 Employment Forecast, Government of Saskatchewan.
3
Forestry
• There is a recovery underway in the forestry sector. Exports of forestry products were
$1.65 billion in 2012 compared with $0.9 billion in 2010. The value of wood products
manufactured in the province is up 38% in the first three quarters of 2013 1.
• With housing in the US beginning to recover and demand from Asia increasing, there are
good reasons for confidence in Saskatchewan forestry.
• Paper Excellence owns two pulp mills in Saskatchewan, one in Meadow Lake and one in
Prince Albert. Meadow Lake is currently the province’s only operating pulp mill.
Meadow Lake Mechanical Pulp produces pulp used in printing and in some composite
materials. The mill in P.A. is to be reopened after it reconfigures to a dissolving pulp for
diaper manufacturing.
• Carrier Forest Products owns sawmills in P.A. and in Big River. Delays at the P.A. Pulp
Mill are affecting sawmill operations because P.A. is the preferred destination for wood
chips.
• NorSask’s sawmill in Meadow Lake produces construction lumber and has over 100 staff
and plans to hire an additional 25 in the next few months. In 2012, they also started
manufacturing softwood pellets from planer shavings.
• L&M Wood Products in Glaslyn continues to treat lumber, fence posts and poles.
• Owned by MLTC and Tolko, the OSB mill has been running steadily since 2003. A new
screening process is to be implemented in early 2014 to help production. Meadow Lake
OSB currently employs 155 staff.
Mining
• Although employment opportunities were forecast in mining, recent lay-offs will
temper the optimism in the mining sector. Several potash developments could face
delays due to economic outlooks, high construction costs, risk of over-supply, and price
fluctuations.
• A Potash marketing cartel in Belarus broke up in July. One of the member companies
raised production and created lower prices on the world market. In December, Potash
Corp. of Saskatchewan announced over 1,000 lay-offs as a result of excess supply and
lowered commodity prices. Almost half of these layoffs were in Saskatchewan and
estimates are that these layoffs may be longer term rather than shorter. Despite this set
back, BHP Billiton has continued construction on its new mine which indicates long
term confidence in the commodity.
• Uranium projects valued at $4.5B include Midwest, Cigar Lake, Legacy, Millennium and
McClean Lake. After flooding problems in 2006, Cigar Lake mine will be producing ore
in the first quarter of 2014. A total of 250 employees will be working at the mine site.
1
Sask Trends Monitor. Nov. 2013. 30(11)p. 8.
4
Oil and Gas
• Energy exports totaled $10.3 billion in the first 10 months of 2013, up 3.4 percent from
the same period last year, and a record for this period.
• Oil and gas contributes 21% of the GDP.
• 474,000 barrels of oil per day.
• 34,000 direct and indirect jobs.
• A total of 1,300 employment opportunities in oil and gas extraction are expected in the
next four years.
• The December sale of petroleum and natural gas rights brought in $13.9 million in
revenue for the province.
• Calendar year total revenue from the six land sales held in 2013 was $67.4 million. The
highest price on a per-hectare basis was for a 129.5-hectare lease south of Maidstone 2.
• The US government will not make a decision about Keystone XL pipeline until early
2014, following an environmental assessment and a determination whether it is in their
national interest. The pipeline project is estimated at $5.3 billion, the largest
infrastructure project currently proposed. If approved, welders, mechanics, electricians,
pipefitters, labourers, safety coordinators, and heavy equipment operators, among others,
will be in high demand.
• Power engineers, heavy equipment operators, and petroleum engineers are predicted to be
a large part of the demand in the oilsands during the next ten years. The greatest demand
in the oil sands sector over the next decade will be for power engineers. Although power
engineers are hired across the sector, growth of in situ operations and, more specifically,
the use of SAGD is the driver behind much of the hiring requirements.
• Bayshore Petroleum announced they plan to build a pilot upgrader at Meota with a
capacity of 350 barrels per day. During the construction phase welders will be required.
Transportation and Warehousing
• 6,800 jobs are forecast for the next four years, primarily related to export, travel,
accommodation and food, wholesale trade, and construction.
• Activities in this sector include the transport of passengers and cargo, and
warehousing and storage. Prospects for stronger U.S. economy and a weaker Canadian
dollar are expected to improve the volume of exports and investment activity.
Utilities
• The utilities industry consists of businesses that provide electricity, natural gas, steam
supply, water supply and sewage removal services.
• Total opportunities are projected to increase by 1,700 over the forecast period.
2
http://www.gov.sk.ca/news?newsId=75f4cc73-1825-4744-9a2f-52a30f48476a.
5
Retail and Wholesale Trade
• Wholesale trade in Saskatchewan was $2 billion in Oct. 2013, a jump of 12.4 percent
over last year, and more than three times the national increase of 3.5 percent.
• An additional 10,900 job opportunities are expected in this sector over the four-year
period, with more than two -thirds resulting from attrition.
• Growth in the retail trade industry is supported by increased housing activity, vehicle
sales, and general consumer spending.
• Continued growth in the agricultural supplies industry, which accounts for one -third of
wholesale sales, will encourage growth of employment opportunities in this industry.
Accommodation and Food Services
• A total of 7,000 job opportunities are expected over the next four years, 4,800 of which
will be due to economic expansion.
• Since 2009, employment levels in the industry have remained relatively stable with
some modest growth occurring, but the forecast annual growth in employment by 2017
is expected to be the highest of all sectors.
Construction
• Employment opportunities totaling 5,500 are forecast to come primarily from attrition.
Employment levels are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few years as
major projects currently underway are completed.
• October was a busy month for construction companies in the province as building permits
totaled a record $371 million. Month-over-month, building permits were up by 26 per
cent between September 2013 and October 2013, the highest percentage increase among
the provinces and well ahead of the seven per cent posted nationally.
Manufacturing
• A total of 4,000 employment opportunities are expected in the next four years.
Economic expansion will result in 1,200 opportunities.
• Major projects planned or underway over the forecast period include a $300M
conversion of a pulp mill to a dissolving pulp mill in Prince Albert.
• Led by food and chemical production, manufacturing shipments are, on a year-over-year
basis, up by 11 per cent in the province.
Agriculture
• with limited growth in terms of expansion, employment in the sector will remain close
to current levels
• a total of 4,700 job opportunities are expected, mostly due to attrition.
Financial, Real Estate, Insurance and Leasing
• Job opportunities in this industry are expected to total 5,700 over the forecast period
with approximately one-third due to economic expansion.
6
Educational Services
• Employment opportunities are expected to total 8,200, with attrition accounting for two thirds.
• In 2012, there were the highest number of births in 22 years. With a continuation of
large numbers of international migrants coming to the province, demand is expected to
increase for education jobs.
Health Care and Social Services
• Over the period 2013-2017, employment opportunities are expected to total 13,000.
• Saskatchewan’s aging population will contribute to the demands on health care.
Public Admin
• An additional 5,800 job opportunities are expected over the next few years. Between
2013 and 2016, attrition will account for roughly 80% of these openings.
Other Services
• This industry group includes management of companies, administrative and other
support services, professional scientific and technical services, information, culture,
and recreation, and other services not included elsewhere. Businesses in this industry
are engaged in managing companies, performing professional, scientific and technical
activities that generally require a high degree of expertise and training.
• The industry is expected to create 16,700 job opportunities between 2013 and 2017.
Economic expansion is expected to create 7,400 of those opportunities.
7
Employment by Education
The highest rate of employment growth in the past five years has been for those with a
university degree. Figure 4 shows that those with less than a high school diploma have lost job
opportunities. The categories that had increased jobs required grade 12, certificates, diplomas or
degrees.
Figure 4. Employment by Completed Education, 2007 to 2012.
8
Employment for Off-reserve Aboriginal Population
Employment growth in the off-reserve Aboriginal population was strong in 2012 (Figure 5). It
accounted for 30% of the employment gains.
Figure 5. Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012.
9
Wage Rate by Education
While high school grads have a good chance of attaining employment, higher wages are earned
by those with post-secondary education. In 2012, a worker with a certificate or diploma earned
20% more than a high school grad. Similarly, those with a degree earned 20% more, on average,
than those with a certificate or diploma. Figure 6 shows the difference in wage rates by education
level completed.
Figure 6. Average Hourly Wage Rates by Level of Completed Education, 2012.
10
According to the provincial government’s “Occupational Employment Outlook, 2013 – 2017”
the 30 most in-demand occupations are forecast to account for almost half of the total
employment opportunities over this period. These occupations are listed in Table 1.
Table 1. Top Opportunities, 2013 to 2017.
Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics, and mechanical repairers
Bookkeepers
Carpenters
Community and social service workers
Cooks
Early childhood educators and assistants
Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants
Elementary school and kindergarten teachers
Farmers and farm managers
Financial auditors and accountants
Financial managers
Food and beverage servers
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations
General office clerks
Heavy equipment operators
Information systems analysts and consultants
Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents
Light duty cleaners
Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates
Principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education
Registered nurses
Restaurant and food services managers
Retail salespersons and sales clerks
Retail trade managers
Sales, marketing, and advertising managers
Secondary school teachers
Secretaries (except legal and medical)
Truck drivers
Welders and related machine operators
11
B. Regional Perspective
Educational Attainment
Educational attainment levels were obtained from the National Household Survey (NHS). The
discontinuation of the census’ long form survey resulted in many communities not having
enough responses to effect the release of their data. Using communities with information
available, Table 2 shows the educational attainment in the region, compared to provincial
figures.
Table 2. Educational Attainment for Population aged 25 to 64 years by highest education.
NWRC Region
Saskatchewan
Educational Attainment Level
(%)
(%)
No certificate, diploma or degree
25
16
High school diploma or equivalent
27
27
Postsecondary certificate or diploma
35
38
Degree
12
19
population available by NHS
100
100
High school graduation rates in the region were the same as in the province, and similar
graduation rates for those attaining a certificate or diploma. However, there were fewer
university grads in the region, and a higher proportion of those without high school credentials
when compared to other parts of the province.
Major Projects in the Region
A number of construction projects are underway in the region. Table 3 shows some of these
construction projects underway or in the planning phase.
Table 3. Major Projects.
Company
Project
Kramer
agriculture implement facility
Co-op
gas bar/convenience store
LMG
oil tank manufacturing plant
Tim Hortons
restaurant construction
Meadow Lake Tribal Council
biomass power generator
Meadow Lake Co-op
fertilizer blending plant
Northwest Community Futures
conference centre
Wal-Mart
32,000 sq ft addition
Battlefords Tribal Council
hotel
600653 SK
franchise hotel
Co-op
eight lane cardlock
BTEC
education facility
Sask Health
Sask Hospital
Husky
heavy oil thermal projects
Adapted from http://economy.gov.sk.ca/2013-MPI.
Community
Battleford
Meadow Lake
North Battleford
Projected Cost
($ million)
7
6
5
2
150
2
4
6
16
10
2
3
NA
Edam & Vawn
12
One of the largest projects under development is MLTC’s goal to break ground on the biomass
power generator this spring. The plant will be capable of producing 35 megawatts, which can
provide enough electricity for 30,000 homes. During the three-year construction more than 200
jobs will be created. At completion the facility will employ 25 staff.
City of North Battleford Surveys
The City of North Battleford’s conducted two surveys in May 2013. Their “Retail and Service
Industry Survey, 2013” reported 31% of respondents found the availability of skilled labour to be
poor.
The City also polled manufacturing and industrial businesses. In 40% of the cases, respondents
in the “2013 Industrial Survey” reported poor availability of skilled labour.
Try-a-Trade Event
In May 2013 during the coordination of the College’s Try-a-Trade event, staff received the
following training needs from her contacts with the business community:
• insurance adjuster training
• graphic technician program
• automotive service technician
• vet tech
• entrepreneurship & small business
• business marketing
• human resource management
• power engineer
• boiler/steam course
• institutional meat cutting
• institutional cooking or professional cooking
• broadcasting/journalism
• RN and
• carpentry.
Many of the business were having issues with staff retention. Several were hiring immigrants
and stressed the need for ESL Training.
13
NWRC Business Survey
In November 2013, businesses in the region with five or more employees were surveyed by
NWRC. The following are the highlights from the responses.
• Although a relatively small sector based on the number of employees, the automotive
industry was well represented in the number of responses. This is an indicator of a strong
demand for automotive service technicians and autobody technicians and related
occupations such as parts techs and service writers. This demand is compounded by the
reported lack of student interest in these trades. Customers are putting a downward
pressure on repair costs while employers are trying to attract and retain staff.
•
Although few employers in manufacturing responded, the two that did represented large
shops. Process operators, millwrights and electricians were most in demand.
•
Similarly, there were few responses from the education sector to the survey yet, given the
large size of the employers, demand for Educational Assistants and Teachers was strong.
•
Other sectors that had high response rates to the survey were health, and retail and
business services. Special care aides and continuing care assistants were needed in the
largest quantities. Cooks also emerged as a need. There were three dental offices
indicating a need for dental therapists/assistants and concern was expressed about the
closure of P.A.’s training centre.
•
The business sector’s needs were varied, but production of Office Education and
Business grads will help alleviate their demand for front line staff.
•
Community services employers indicated Early Childhood diplomas and Youth Care
Workers are needed.
14
Student Recruiter Findings
The College’s student recruiter received a number of inquiries during her student recruitment
travels. Some of the programs students were looking include:
• Addictions counselor
• Art programs or Music through U of R or U of S
• Bridging from LPN to RN
• Construction worker
• Cooking classes
• Custodian program
• Digital camera classes
• Engineering classes
• Fitness Recreation Coordinator
• Gel Nail course, and Eyelash Extension
• Landscaping
• Marketing classes
• Massage Therapy
• Paramedic
• RN program
• Rural Municipality Administration (6 course program through U of R)
• Water Treatment classes
Better Business Trade Show
NWRC marketing staff received some interest in the following programs from attendees at the
Better Business Trade show in North Battleford:
• Cake decorating
• Carpentry (Level 2)
• LPN bridging program
• MBA and Edwards School of Business classes
• Pharmacy Tech
• Photography
• PVC course for glass manufacturers
• Shipping and receiving course
• Simply Accounting and QuickBooks
• Small business weekend session (law, insurance, marketing…)
• University law classes
15
Regional Health Sector
Health regions in the northwest are posting fewer jobs on their websites than the same time last
year. Table 4 shows a summary of their online job postings.
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
1
2
4
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
3
3
1
Total
Unity
Wilkie
Shellbrook
1
Turtleford
1
Loon Lake
Edam
1
St.
2
1
Cut Knife
Addictions Counselor
CCA
Client care coordinator
Cook
EMR
Environmental services
Food services worker
Home care manager
Home care scheduler
LPN
Maintenance worker
Mental health therapist
Office assistant
Pharmacist
Radiologist
RN
Meadow L.
Occupation
Battlefords
Table 4. Occupations advertised on Health Regions’ websites, Dec. 2013.
2
6
1
4
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
1
2
2
1
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The strongest need is for RNs. Seventeen jobs were posted and the demand was reported in
communities throughout the region.
All four health regions that operate in the college’s region have increased their staff numbers
since 2006-07 (Table 5).
Table 5. Number of FTE in Regional Health Authorities
Health Authority
2006-07
2010-11
Saskatoon
8411
9430
Heartland
1020
1087
Prince Albert Parkland
1644
1922
Prairie North
1937
2191
% change
9
7
17
13
16
Although provincial in scope, the update of the Health HR Plan also provided a forecast for the
number of employees required in the next ten years. Table 6 is an excerpt of this forecast to
highlight selected occupations as an indicator of what is also likely to be in demand within the
College region.
Table 6. Projected number of FTEs required by the year 2021.
Profession
Projected # of FTEs
# training seats, 2012-13
required by 2021
Diagnostic Medical Sonographer
25
4
Health Records Clerk
79
13
Home Care/ Special Care Aide
2546
250
LPN
936
350
Medical Laboratory Technologist
251
20
Medical Radiation Technologist
66
12
Nurses
3415
725
Respiratory Therapist
77
8
Excerpt from “Saskatchewan’s Health Human Resource Plan, Appendix B Forecast Update”. Jan. 2013.
Medical Lab Tech was the only profession without sufficient training capacity in the province to
meet the projected demand for staff in the next ten years. If all twenty grads remained in the
province each year for the next ten years there would be 200 grads. This would not provide all of
the 251 needed MLTs.
The occupations impacted the most by increased demand, retirements and attrition are
• nurses,
• home care/special care aides,
• medical lab techs,
• addiction counselors,
• occupational therapists,
• respiratory therapists,
• speech language pathologists and
• public health inspectors.
Oil and Gas - Major Project
• Husky Energy Inc. is going ahead with two new heavy oil thermal projects that will
deliver 20,000 barrels per day. Husky has begun engineering on the Edam East project
and will start on the Vawn project later this year. It expects both to be in production by
2016 3.
3
http://www.huskyenergy.com/news/release.asp?release_id=1796776.
17
Regional Population and Demographics
Covered population counts from the Ministry of Health provides the most up-to-date estimate of
population (June 30, 2013), based on eligibility for health insurance benefits in Saskatchewan.
All residents of Saskatchewan are included except members of the Canadian Armed Forces,
Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and inmates of federal prisons, all of whom are covered by the
federal government; and people not yet meeting the residency requirement. Coverage begins on
the first day of the third calendar month following their move to Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan
residents moving elsewhere remain eligible for coverage for the same period. In the case of
death, people who had coverage any time in June are included.
Table 7 shows the covered population counts for towns in the College’s region. Forty-seven of
the fifty communities increased their population between 2010 and 2013. While Krydor
remained the same size, the population in the two largest communities, Meadow Lake and North
Battleford, diminished.
Table 7. Covered Population for Cities, Towns and Villages in NWRC’s Region.
City, Town, Village
Population
City, Town, Village
2010
2013
Battleford
3,569
4,645
Maymont
Big River
1,268
1,472
Meadow Lake
Blaine Lake
616
751
Medstead
Borden
414
505
Meota
Canwood
558
609
Mervin
Chitek Lake
150
192
North Battleford
Cochin
274
543
P.A. National Park
Cut Knife
873
897
Paradise Hill
Debden
608
763
Parkside
Denholm
86
138
Paynton
Dorintosh
277
382
Pierceland
Duck Lake
382
565
Rabbit Lake
Edam
615
703
Radisson
Glaslyn
421
520
Richard
Goodsoil
625
669
Rosthern
Hague
1,513
1,737
Ruddell
Hafford
595
723
Shell Lake
Hepburn
657
934
Shellbrook
Krydor
51
51
Speers
Laird
315
390
Spiritwood
Leask
614
655
St. Walburg
Leoville
500
626
Turtleford
Loon Lake
475
675
Unity
Makwa
239
260
Waldheim
Marcelin
257
307
Wilkie
Total
Population
2010
2013
139
216
7,675
7,324
308
348
451
611
228
257
17,917
16,621
79
172
791
861
183
204
220
292
974
1,103
136
179
546
667
124
144
1,645
1,994
33
47
387
589
1,558
1,938
133
150
1,357
1,463
1,040
1,117
776
957
2,759
3,067
1,066
1,339
1,459
1,463
57,936
62,835
18
In 2013, an additional 4,899 people were living in cities, towns and villages than in 2010. This
was in spite of the 1647 people no longer counted in Meadow Lake and North Battleford.
Table 8 shows the population of rural municipalities (RMs) in the region. Only six of the 30 RMs
experienced a decrease in population. Overall, population in RM increased 12.8% over the past
three years.
Table 8. Covered Population for RMs in NWRC’s Region.
RM
2010
2013
RM
Population Population
Battle River RM #438
589
619
Medstead RM #497
Beaver River RM #622
347
390
Meeting Lake RM #466
Big River RM #555
193
224
Meota RM #468
Blaine Lake RM #434
100
106
Mervin RM #499
Buffalo RM #409
332
330
North Battleford RM #437
Canwood RM #494
576
715
Parkdale RM #498
Cut Knife RM #439
215
276
Paynton RM #470
Douglas RM #436
111
126
Redberry RM #435
Duck Lake RM #463
744
720
Rosthern RM #403
Frenchman Butte RM#501
756
1,132
Round Hill RM #467
Great Bend RM #405
161
191
Round Valley RM #410
Laird RM #404
826
775
Shellbrook RM #493
Leask RM #464
215
232
Spiritwood RM #496
Loon Lake RM #561
220
266
Turtle River RM #469
Mayfield RM #406
351
336
Total
Meadow Lake RM #588
1,077
1,272
2010
Population
198
281
181
697
250
451
107
98
557
262
122
1,275
453
162
11,907
2013
Population
263
306
187
944
311
411
110
117
664
234
138
1,317
516
200
13,428
Table 9 presents the covered population counts for first nation communities, based on the Sask
Health’s methodology of, where possible, utilizing the residence address. In three years, there
were almost 800 fewer residents on-reserve.
Table 9. Covered Population of First Nation Communities in NWRC’s Region.
First Nation
2010
2013
First Nation
Population Population
Ahtahkakoop
1,554
1,491
Onion Lake
Beardy’s and Okemasis
1,847
1,842
Pelican Lake
Big Island Lake
806
828
Poundmaker
Big River First Nation
1,914
1,932
Red Pheasant
Flying Dust
671
619
Saulteaux
Island Lake
978
1,005
Sturgeon Lake
Little Pine
791
768
Sweetgrass
Makwa Sahgaiehcan
1,057
1,059
Thunderchild
Mistawasis
864
825
Wahpeton Dakota Nation
Moosomin
898
797
Waterhen Lake
Mosquito
703
688
Witchekan Lake
Muskeg Lake
475
435
Total
2010
Population
3,339
952
718
855
640
1,445
917
1,154
157
744
555
24,034
2013
Population
3,458
928
641
772
644
1,191
875
1,080
87
728
543
23,236
19
Table 10 summarizes the change in population by community type. Rural municipalities grew
the most, on a percentage basis. While both cities lost population, the category of cities, towns
and villages grew by 8.5% overall. First nations lost 3.3 percent of their population. The region
overall gained six percent in the three year period.
Table 10. Covered Population in NWRC’s Region.
Community Type
2010
2013
Population
Population
City, Town, Village
RM
First Nation
Total
57,936
11,907
24,034
93,877
62,835
13,428
23,236
99,499
Percent
Change
8.5
12.8
-3.3
6.0
The areas selected in figure 7 were arbitrary and created just to provide some perspective as to
where the population is located within the region.
• The greatest concentration of residents is within 100 km radius of the Battlefords
• Meadow Lake area has half the population density of the Battlefords area
• Strong growth in the Turtleford and Rosthern zones was experienced over the past 3 years
• Growth in the Rosthern zone was concentrated in the towns
• There was a general trend of declining populations in First Nation communities
Figure 7. Covered Population Counts for Selected Trading Areas in the College’s region.
20
Communities in the Selected Trading Areas
Table 11. Battlefords Area
Community
2010 pop’n
2013 pop’n
% change
Battleford
3,569
4,645
30
Battle River RM #438
589
619
5
Blaine Lake
616
751
22
Blaine Lake RM #434
100
106
6
Borden
414
505
22
Buffalo RM #409
332
330
-1
Cochin
274
543
98
Cut Knife
873
897
3
Cut Knife RM #439
215
276
28
Denholm
86
138
60
Douglas RM #436
111
126
14
Great Bend RM #405
161
191
19
Hafford
595
723
22
Krydor
51
51
0
Little Pine
791
768
-3
Mayfield RM #406
351
336
-4
Maymont
139
216
55
Meota
451
611
35
Meota RM #468
181
187
3
Moosomin
898
797
-11
Mosquito
703
688
-2
North Battleford
17,917
16,621
-7
North Battleford RM #437
250
311
24
Paynton
220
292
33
Paynton RM #470
107
110
3
Poundmaker
718
641
-11
Radisson
546
667
22
Red Pheasant
855
772
-10
Redberry RM #435
98
117
19
Richard
124
144
16
Round Hill RM #467
262
234
-11
Round Valley RM #410
122
138
13
Ruddell
33
47
42
Saulteaux
640
644
1
Speers
133
150
13
Sweetgrass
917
875
-5
Unity
2,759
3,067
11
Wilkie
1,459
1,463
0
Total Population
38,660
39,797
3
Communities highlighted in red lost population between 2010 and 2013. Those in green increased by 24% or more
in the same period.
21
Table 12. Meadow Lake Area
Community
2010 pop’n
2013 pop’n
% change
Beaver River RM #622
347
390
12
Big Island Lake
806
828
3
Big River First Nation
1,914
1,932
1
Big River
1,268
1,472
16
Big River RM #555
193
224
16
Canwood
558
609
9
Debden
608
763
25
Dorintosh
277
382
38
Flying Dust
671
619
-8
Goodsoil
625
669
7
Island Lake
978
1,005
3
Loon Lake
475
675
42
Loon Lake RM #561
220
266
21
Makwa
239
260
9
Makwa Sahgaiehcan
1,057
1,059
0
Meadow Lake
7,675
7,324
-5
Meadow Lake RM #588
1,077
1,272
18
P.A. National Park
79
172
118
Pierceland
974
1,103
13
Waterhen Lake
744
728
-2
Total Population
20,875
21,752
4
Communities highlighted in red lost population between 2010 and 2013. Those in green increased by 24% or more
in the same period.
Table 13. Turtleford Area
Community
2010 pop’n
2013 pop’n
% change
Edam
615
703
14
Frenchman Butte RM #501
756
1,132
50
Glaslyn
421
520
24
Medstead
308
348
13
Mervin
228
257
13
Mervin RM #499
697
944
35
Onion Lake
3,339
3,458
4
Paradise Hill
791
861
9
St. Walburg
1,040
1,117
7
Thunderchild
1,154
1,080
-6
Turtle River RM #469
162
200
23
Turtleford
776
957
23
Total Population
10,287
11,577
13
Communities highlighted in red lost population between 2010 and 2013. Those in green increased by 24% or more
in the same period.
22
Table 14. Shellbrook Area
Community
2010 pop’n
2013 pop’n
% change
Chitek Lake
150
192
28
Ahtahkakoop
1,554
1,491
-4
Canwood
558
609
9
Canwood RM #494
576
715
24
Leask
614
655
7
Leask RM #464
215
232
8
Leoville
500
626
25
Marcelin
257
307
19
Medstead RM #497
198
263
33
Meeting Lake RM #466
281
306
9
Mistawasis
864
825
-5
Muskeg Lake
475
435
-8
Parkdale RM #498
451
411
-9
Parkside
183
204
11
Pelican Lake
952
928
-3
Rabbit Lake
136
179
32
Shell Lake
387
589
52
Shellbrook
1,558
1,938
24
Shellbrook RM #493
1,275
1,317
3
Spiritwood
1,357
1,463
8
Spiritwood RM #496
453
516
14
Sturgeon Lake
1,445
1,191
-18
Wahpeton Dakota Nation
157
87
-45
Witchekan Lake
555
543
-2
Total Population
15,151
16,022
6
Communities highlighted in red lost population between 2010 and 2013. Those in green increased by 24% or more
in the same period.
Table 15. Rosthern Area
Community
2010 pop’n
2013 pop’n
% change
Beardy’s and Okemasis
1,847
1,842
0
Duck Lake
382
565
48
Duck Lake RM #463
744
720
-3
Hague
1,513
1,737
15
Hepburn
657
934
42
Laird
315
390
24
Laird RM #404
826
775
-6
Rosthern
1,645
1,994
21
Rosthern RM #403
557
664
19
Waldheim
1,066
1,339
26
Total Population
9,552
10,960
15
Communities highlighted in red lost population between 2010 and 2013. Those in green increased by 24% or more
in the same period.
23
Figure 8 shows the covered population counts in the region for those under 65 years.
Figure 8. Population in NWRC region, by selected age categories.
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
Age Categories
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
<5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
The baby boom generation is still evident in the fifty to sixty age group. What is more dramatic
is the solid wave of young’uns under 25.
In recent years, this advantage of a burgeoning youth was credited to the Aboriginal community.
In figures 10 and 11, RMs, towns and cities are also now seeing an increase in the number of
toddlers under that age of five. While some Aboriginal youth may have moved from First Nation
communities to towns, RMs and cities, there also has been an increase in immigration from other
provinces and other countries. Many immigrants bring young families and add to them after
arrival. The prospects of gainful employment relative to the lack of opportunities elsewhere has
perhaps given people the confidence to start families in this region.
While figure 10 shows the age distribution in RMs is still top heavy with seniors, the younger
generations are most prominent in the First Nation but also increasingly evident in other
community types in the region.
24
Figure. 9. Covered Population Counts in First Nations Communities in NWRC’s Region.
Age Categories
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
<5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Figure. 10. Covered Population Counts in RMs in NWRC’s Region
60 to 64
Age Categories
50 to 54
40 to 44
30 to 34
20 to 24
10 to 14
<5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Age Categories
Figure. 11. Covered Population Counts in Towns and Cities in NWRC’s Region
60 to 64
50 to 54
40 to 44
30 to 34
20 to 24
10 to 14
<5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
25
Communities that grew their population by 24% or more between 2010 and 2013 are highlighted
in green in Figure 12. As during the intercensal period from 2006 to 2011, growth in the
southeast part of the region, near Saskatoon, continued. Hague and Rosthern also grew but not
enough to earn a green dot. Communities that lost population in the same period are indicated by
the red dot.
Figure 12. Map of Region.
Many first nations lost population while neighbouring small towns increased in size by 24% or
more. The two largest communities, Meadow Lake and North Battleford, lost population from
2011 to 2013. Battleford increased its population as did several satellite communities
surrounding North Battleford.
26
High School Enrolments
The number of students in grades 10, 11 and 12 within regional school divisions provides a
proxy to indicate the number of high school grads expected in the next three years. Students
enrolled in grades 10, 11, and 12 within the region are presented in Table 16.
Table 16. Enrolment Statistics for High Schools in Regional School Divisions, 2013-14.
School Division
Light of Christ
School Name
Gr 10 to 12
Gr 10
Gr 11
Gr 12
John Paul II Collegiate
436
190
93
153
Cut Knife High School
51
23
14
14
Hafford Central School
36
15
12
9
5
1
3
1
Leoville Central School
36
15
9
12
Maymont Central School
37
11
15
11
McLurg High School
76
16
27
33
Heritage Christian School
Living Sky
Medstead Central School
Northwest
Prairie Spirit
Sask Rivers
30
9
12
9
North Battleford Comp
553
198
157
198
Sakewew High School
144
71
34
39
Spiritwood High School
128
51
31
46
Unity Composite
127
39
40
48
Carpenter High School
458
173
135
150
Ernie Studer School
38
12
11
15
Glaslyn Central School
18
6
5
7
Goodsoil Central School
33
14
10
9
H. Hardcastle School
50
22
14
14
Hillmond Central School
43
19
10
14
Paradise Hill School
60
23
20
17
Pierceland Central School
41
14
13
14
St. Walburg School
51
11
19
21
Turtleford School
85
28
24
33
Blaine Lake School
46
18
13
15
Borden School
28
10
12
6
Hague High School
91
32
28
31
Hepburn School
51
13
17
21
Leask Community School
59
31
20
8
Rosthern High School
60
20
22
18
Stobart Community School
80
22
36
22
Waldheim School
83
24
31
28
Big River High School
47
14
17
16
Canwood School
32
14
7
11
Debden School
46
24
7
15
94
3,253
31
1,214
40
958
23
1,081
W.P. Sandin Composite
Region Total
27
Enrolment stats in Table 16 do not include on-reserve high schools: Chief Little Pine, Chief
Poundmaker, Pelican Lake School, Se Se Wa Hum School (Victoire), Chief Napew Memorial
School (Pierceland), and Island Lake School, Waweyekisik Education Centre (Waterhen),
Eagleview Comprehensive (Onion Lake) and Piyesiw Awasis (Thunderchild). However, they
provide an approximation of the number progressing through their final years of high school, and
prime candidates for entry into college.
A decrease in the number of grads is expected in 2015 following the larger graduation class of
2014. While 1,214 students are currently in Grade 10, not all of these students will graduate from
high school. A drop-out rate of 15% will provide a grad class comparable in size of the 2014
cohort.
28