Hong Kong Transfer Coverage 21 December 2012 Wynn Macau Sell (new) Unrivalled Luxury, Unappealing Value Share price: Target price: HKD 21.15 HKD 18.30 (new) VIP and premium slots dwindling. Wynn Macau (WM) reported a 12.1% YoY drop in VIP turnover and 13.2% in slot handle in 3Q12, hit by intensifying competition in Cotai and an industry-wide slowdown in the VIP segment. Despite a 6.8% YoY increase in VIP rolling chip volume in November, we believe the decline will continue. On a luckadjusted basis, the optimism over junket volume recovery should be taken with a pinch of salt as Nov 2012 experienced a higher win rate of 3.35% vs 3.11% in Nov 2011. Jeremy TAN jeremytan@kimeng.com.hk (852) 2268 0635 Edward FUNG edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk (852) 2268 0632 Stock Information Description: Wynn Macau operates two luxury hotel towers featuring 1,008 spacious rooms and suites, in addition to a casino, casual and fine dining restaurants, retail space as well as other leisure amenities. Ticker: Shares Issued (m): Market Cap (USDm): 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USDm): HSI: Free Float (%): 1128 HK 5,187.6 14,391 16.3 22,660 28 Major Shareholders: Wynn Resorts Limited (%) 72 Market share under pressure. Overall market share slid to 12.0% in 2012F from 13.8% in 2011A. We forecast another 1ppt slide in 2013 and 2014. We expect revenue and EBITDA growth in 2013 to lag industry growth by 2.5% and 4.5% on average as its premium product does not allow it to fully capitalise on Macau’s mass market growth. Playing catch-up in Cotai. The budget for Wynn Cotai is high at USD3.5-4.0b, against its peers’. We expect the project to be completed in 1H16, after Galaxy Entertainment and Melco Crown wrap up their expansion in Cotai. But the influx of supply by competing operators between 2015 and 2017 does not bode well for late entrants seeking to ramp up their projects in a crowded market. Dividend may take a hit. We believe that Wynn’s Cotai investment could hinder the sustainability of its dividend payout in FY13. We forecast free cash flow yield of 4% in 2013 and 1% in 2014 as free cash flow dips in tandem with the pick-up in investment during these two years. As casino investments are typically back-loaded, we expect dividend yield (2011A: 7.3%) to wane nearer the project’s completion. New contrarian SELL, TP of HKD18.30. Despite WM’s reputation as the premium ultra-luxury destination of choice, its fundamentals and valuation point to risks on the downside. The stock trades at rich valuations of 17.0x FY13F PER and 13.3x FY13F EV/EBITDA vis-à-vis players similarly focused on the VIP segment. We transfer coverage to Jeremy Tan from Yin Shao Yang. Historical Chart 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 Wynn Macau – Summary Earnings Table 15.0 10.0 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 PRICE Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 PRICE REL. TO HANG SENG INDEX Source: Bloomberg Performance: 52-week High/Low Absolute (%) Relative (%) 1-mth (6.6) (10.6) HKD25.5/HKD14.62 3-mth 13.0 0.5 6-mth 9.0 (7.4) 1-yr 5.3 (12.3) YTD 4.9 (13.4) FYE Dec (HKDm) Revenue EBITDA Recurring Net Profit Recurring Basic EPS (HKD) EPS Growth (%) DPS (HKD) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div Yield (%) P/BV (x) Net Gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) Consensus Net Profit (HKDm) Source: Company, Maybank KE 2011A 29,498.1 7,951.3 5,921.0 1.3 48.1 1.2 2012F 29,841.0 7,779.6 6,315.2 1.2 (5.3) 1.1 2013F 31,611.5 8,209.3 6,489.8 1.3 2.8 0.9 2014F 34,705.7 9,168.9 7,140.5 1.4 10.0 0.6 15.2 12.7 7.3 25.1 17.5 13.9 5.6 23.6 17.0 13.3 4.1 16.7 15.4 12.2 2.6 10.1 (8.8) 160.1 42.0 - (39.8) 145.3 37.5 6,621.9 (13.2) 115.2 29.6 7,307.5 12.5 81.6 24.0 8,170.4 SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Wynn Macau Limited First sign of crackdown on corruption. Recent media reports that people from three of Macau’s biggest junket operators were detained were the first sign, since China’s leadership transition in November, that the government is taking action to rein in corruption that has hogged the headlines this year. The junket business plays a crucial role in Macau as 70% of the territory’s gaming revenue is derived from the VIP segment. Should political risk intensify, it could threaten the junket business as well as deter VIP customers from coming. Arguably the media exaggerated the news, and we expect December is on track to beat estimates and could post a record breaking set of gross gaming revenue (GGR) number, translating to a growth of about 17% YoY. That said, the government’s move to curb corruption underscores our preference for operators that are less dependent on VIP gaming revenue and have lower exposure to Cotai. In our sector report, “Winning Formula: Cotai’s Mass Market Wave”, dated 28 Nov 12, we forecast that industry growth will continue in 2013 by way of a 25% growth in the mass market segment and conservatively, zero growth in the VIP segment. Figure 1: Macau – annual gross gaming revenue (HKDm) 400,000 VIP Mass Slots 350,000 (%) 70 GGR YoY (RHS) 60 57.8 300,000 50 46.6 250,000 42.7 200,000 40 31.0 150,000 30 23.0 100,000 20 12.5 9.7 50,000 7.5 9.6 0 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Source: The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), Maybank KE VIP turnover in structural decline. The slowdown in VIP turnover will be a structural trend in FY13, in our view. While the VIP rolling chip volume rose by 6.8% YoY in November, on a luck-adjusted basis, the win rate of 3.35% in Nov 2012 was higher than that recorded in Nov 2011 at 3.11%. We caution that optimism over VIP junket turnover recovery should be taken with a pinch of salt. In our analysis, we found that gross gaming revenue (GGR) bears a strong correlation with liquidity, tourist visitations and China’s nominal GDP growth. A meaningful proxy for liquidity is China’s money supply (M1 and M2) growth. Unless money supply begins a significant upward trajectory through a resurgence of monetary stimulus by the Beijing government, such as in 2008, we keep our industry outlook for a stable 7.5% GGR growth for 2013 intact. Figure 2: China’s M1 and M2 growth vs gross gaming revenue growth (%) China M1 growth YoY GGR growth YoY 3 mths backward (RHS) China M2 growth YoY 40 100 35 80 30 60 25 20 40 15 20 10 0 5 0 Jan-06 -20 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: DICJ, Bloomberg, Maybank KE 21 December 2012 Page 2 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited VIP concentration highest in industry. Among the six casino operators in Macau, Wynn Macau (WM) has replaced Galaxy as the operator with the highest concentration of VIP revenue in its gaming mix. Throughout 2012, VIP revenue has consistently accounted for 76% of WM’s gaming mix, making the company highly vulnerable to the slowdown in VIP volume seen in the first three quarters of the year. While EBITDA contributions from the less profitable VIP segment is notably lower than from the mass market, WM’s VIP-focused property and strategy could hinder it from taking full advantage of the growth in the mass market, which remains Macau’s next revenue driver. Figure 3: Wynn Macau – 2012 forecast revenue mix (%) Slots 7.5% Poker 0.4% Rooms 0.5% Mass 19.9% Food and beverage 0.7% Retail and other 5.1% VIP 66.0% Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Figure 4: Wynn Macau – gaming mix (%) (%) 1Q11 75 VIP Mass market 18 Slots 7 Source: Company, Maybank KE 2Q11 78 16 6 3Q11 78 17 5 4Q11 77 18 5 1Q12 75 19 6 2Q12 76 19 6 3Q12 76 19 5 Market share loss. Market share for WM fell by 2ppts between 1Q11 and 3Q12 as its VIP growth slipped into negative territory while other operators with new large-scale integrated resort openings benefited from the increase in mass market growth in Cotai. Going forward, we expect VIP-dominated peninsular operators to continue to lose market share to operators with greater exposure to Cotai’s mass market growth as the former lack the capacity to capitalize from the Macau’s next growth driver. Furthermore, as WM’s junket commissions is the lowest in the industry, at 40% of net win, we believe this could motivate junket agents to bring clients to other casino properties. We forecast WM’s market share to fall 1ppt each in 2013 and 2014. Figure 5: Gross gaming revenue market share forecasts (%) 100% Sands China 10.9% 10.7% Galaxy 9.6% Wynn Macau 10.4% SJM Melco Crown MGM 10.0% 9.6% 9.4% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 13.2% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 80% 14.4% 14.8% 15.1% 13.8% 13.4% 12.6% 60% 31.2% 28.6% 27.2% 28.0% 27.4% 26.8% 27.2% 25.0% 24.0% 32.8% 13.2% 12.2% 11.8% 12.1% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 13.2% 18.8% 21.2% 19.4% 20.1% 21.0% 22.0% 20.5% 40% 20% 14.2% 14.7% 11.0% 12.9% 19.8% 16.7% 15.6% 13.6% 14.9% 17.6% 17.3% 19.1% 18.1% 21.0% 22.5% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 12F 13F 14F 0% Source: Company, Maybank KE 21 December 2012 Page 3 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Figure 6: Macau – gross gaming revenue growth (%) VIP GGR YoY Figure 7: Wynn Macau – VIP rolling turnover and growth Mass GGR YoY VIP Rolling Turnover 110 VIP Rolling Turnover Growth MOPm 90 % 85,000 70 50 35 20 75,000 30 5 10 65,000 (10) (10) (30) Mar-06 Sep-07 Mar-09 Sep-10 Mar-12 55,000 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sept 12 Nov 12 (25) Source: DICJ, Maybank KE Source: DICJ, Maybank KE Figure 8: Wynn Macau – monthly market share (%) Figure 9: Wynn Macau – mass market vs VIP revenue market share (%) Market Share Mass Market Share VIP Rolling Market Share 19% VIP Market Share 20% 17% 15% 15% 13% 10% 11% 9% Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Source: Company, Maybank KE Jan 12 May 12 Sept 12 5% Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Source: Company, Maybank KE Wynn Cotai to play catch-up. As the reclaimed land granted to WM is next to the sea, additional soil foundation work needs to be done before piling and construction can take place. We anticipate the construction of Wynn Cotai to be completed by the first half of 2016 and it would house 2,000 hotel suites, in addition to convention halls, retail space and entertainment and food and beverage outlets. However, we are unable to ascertain the number of tables the government would eventually grant the project when it is completed. Based on the government’s stance to limit table growth to 3% pa from 5,500 tables in 1Q13, we expect an ample supply of 2,000 tables over the next 10 years for each of the six operators’ new development in Cotai. That said, late entrants to Cotai would likely be met with stiff competition as all six operators will boost overall supply of gaming tables and hotel inventory from 2015. This convergence of new supply does not bode well for property ramp-up by latecomers if the gaming pie fails to grow in tandem with supply. Figure 10: Map of Cotai Figure 11: Construction of Wynn Cotai Source: SCMP Source: Flickr 21 December 2012 Page 4 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Earnings forecasts Growth to lag peers. We estimate WM’s net profit to grow by 6.7% YoY in 2012 and 2.8% YoY in 2013, driven by mass market growth as VIP turnover consolidates in 2013. Consequently, we expect EBITDA growth of -2.2% in 2012 and 5.5% in 2013. Top and bottom-line growth will likely fall behind peers’ by 2.5% and 9.0%, respectively, in 2013 as its premium product is not positioned to capitalise on the growing mass market segment in Cotai. Nevertheless, we expect EBITDA margins to hold steady at around 26% in 2013 as revenue mix shifts towards the more profitable mass market revenue streams. Figure 12: Wynn Macau – annual EBITDA trends (MOPm) 40,000 EBITDA Operating revenues (%) 100 EBITDA Growth (RHS) 81.2 80 30,000 60 20,000 40 35.3 11.7 5.5 (2.2) 10,000 20 0 0 -20 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Source: Company, Maybank KE Dividend yield to fall. While parent company, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US, Not Rated) has increase special dividends to USD8.0/share this year from USD5.0/share (in light of the higher possible capital gains tax increase in US) and could double quarterly dividends in 2013 to USD1.0/share, we do not think Wynn Macau could follow suit with higher dividends. Given the scale of the budget (USD3.5-4.0b) for Wynn Cotai, we expect free cash flow to decline progressively during the investment phase of the project in 2013-2015. WM’s net cash would also dwindle substantially from 2012 and forecasted to turn net debt HKD1.3b by 2014F. This will put in question the sustainability of its dividend payout as we forecast free cash flow yield of 4% in 2013 and 1% in 2014. In our view, dividend yields will be under pressure in 2013 and 2014, coming in at 4% and 3%, respectively, compared to 7.3% in 2011A and 5.7% in 2012F. Figure 13: Wynn Macau – free cash flow vs yield Free cash flow Figure 14: Wynn Macau – net debt/(cash) vs gearing Free cash flow yield (RHS) 10,000 10% 8% 8,000 7% 8% 7% 6,000 6% 4% 4,000 2,000 0 2% 0% 2011 Source: Company, Maybank KE 21 December 2012 2012 2013F Net Debt / (Cash) % 30 Net Gearing 15 1,500 0 0 (15) 4% 1% 2010 HKDm 3,000 2014F -1,500 (30) (45) -3,000 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Source: Company, Maybank KE Page 5 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Financial assumptions Central to our estimates is the assumption that WM’s gaming concession will terminate on 26 Jun 2022 as scheduled and will be subject to extension by the government. We also assume no contributions from Wynn Cotai until construction is completed in the first half of 2016. WM’s quarterly market share of Macau GGR has declined from 14.2% to 12.1% between 1Q11 and 3Q12 (Table 5). We continue to assume that it will lose market share to other operators who are better positioned to capitalise on Cotai’s mass market growth. We forecast a market share of 12% for 2012 and 11% for 2013. 21 December 2012 VIP turnover growth and win rate. For 2012 and 2013, we assume VIP turnover growth of 0% (2011: +35.2% YoY) as per our 2013 industry VIP GGR growth forecast of 0% as elaborated on page 2. With respect to the VIP win rate, we assume the theoretical average of 2.85% (2008-2011 average: 3.0%). Mass market drop growth and win rate. For 2012 and 2013, we assume mass market turnover growth of 15% (2011: +18.4% YoY). With respect to the mass market win rate, we assume the theoretical average of 26.0% (2008-2011 average: 23.4%). Slot machine handle turnover growth and win rate. For 2012 and 2013, we assume slot handle turnover growth of 25% (2011: +28.6% YoY) as per our 2013 industry mass market growth forecast of 25% as elaborated on page 2. We also assume a slot machine win rate of 5.0% (2008-2011 average: 5.1%). Junket commission rate. Going forward, we assume an average junket commission rate of 1.1% of VIP turnover. Since its opening, WM’s average junket commission rate has remained stable at 1.1%.This translates into an average VIP junket rate of 40% of net win, which is the lowest in Macau’s gaming industry. Tax rates. WM’s gaming tax is set at 39% of GGR (35% gaming tax, 1.6% contribution to a Macau public foundation and 2.4% contribution to the Macau government) for the entire duration of its gaming concession. It is exempted from paying complimentary tax set at 12% of gaming pretax profit until 2015. The exemption is subject to further extension by the government. Dividends. Although WM paid a DPS of HKD0.76 in 2010 and HKD1.20 in 2011, it does not have a formal dividend policy nor does it provide guidance on dividend payout ratio (DPR). Going forward, however, we assume that WM may need to reduce dividends as it needs to conserve cash to develop Wynn Cotai, which has an estimated budget of USD3.5-4.0b. We forecast dividend payout ratios of 90% for 2012 and 70% for 2013, which would translate into corresponding yields of 5.7% and 4.5%. Page 6 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Valuation We use sum-of-the-parts methodology to value WM’s core business segments. We apply EV/EBITDA as the main metric, given that it is a common valuation for industries characterised by continual and heavy capital expenditure, similar to the gaming industry of Macau in its growth stage. We have assigned an industry average valuation of 11.0x FY13F EV/EBITDA in the light of an overall slowdown in VIP growth and the fact that being on the Macau peninsular, WM has become a late mover on Cotai’s mass market growth. We add Wynn Cotai to our valuation on a capitalised cost basis, given the uncertain industry growth outlook upon the project’s expected completion in mid-2016. Figure 15: Sum-of-the-parts valuation for Wynn Macau EBITDA (HKD m) 8,209.3 (99.6) Wynn Macau Other expenses EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 11.0 EV (HKD m) 90,302.4 (1,095.8) Add: Net cash / (Debt) Available for Sale Investments Wynn Cotai (Capitalized Cost) Target Price (HKD) Source: Maybank KE Figure 16: Price-to-earnings (x) 1128 HK Equity Mean Value/sh (HKD) Comment 17.4 FY13 EBITDA (0.2) 872.5 508.8 4,462.5 0.2 0.1 0.9 95,050.4 18.3 Figure 17: EV/EBITDA (x) +1 SD -1 SD 1128 HK Equity Mean +1 SD -1 SD 20 26 18 21 16 14 16 12 10 11 8 6 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 6 Jan 10 Jul 12 Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE Figure 18: Industry average EV/EBITDA (x) 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Jan 10 Average EV / EBITDA Jul 10 Jan 11 Mean Jul 11 +1 SD Jan 12 -1 SD Jul 12 Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE 21 December 2012 Page 7 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Relative valuation A comparison of the valuations of Wynn Macau with those of MGM China, Galaxy Entertainment and SJM, ie, players with similar VIP concentration in their gaming mix profile, shows that WM is trading at a slight premium at 15x FY13F PER and 13x FY13F EV/EBITDA. At its peak in 2011, the stock has traded at 17x EV/EBITDA but has since fallen to trade around the mean of 13x FY13F EV/EBITDA. While, ROE is the highest in the industry we think this is due to the fact that WM completed its casino (inclusive of Encore) at a lower cost of USD1.65b, between 2006 and 2010 and should moderate after the investment phase of Wynn Cotai. We believe a further de-rating to narrow the premium with its comparable VIP-dependent peers is warranted. Figure 19: Consensus relative valuation comparison Name Macau Galaxy Entertainment Melco Crown MGM China Sands China SJM Holdings Wynn Macau Region Average Ticker 27 HK 6883 HK 2282 HK 1928 HK 880 HK 1128 HK PE 12Y 17.0 22.9 11.8 28.6 15.0 17.0 19.0 13Y 15.2 18.8 11.5 19.9 13.5 15.4 16.1 21.3 17.6 20.9 21.1 18.8 18.2 United States Caesars Entertainment Corp. Las Vegas Sands Corp. MGM Resorts International Wynn Resorts Ltd. Region Average CZR US LVS US MGM US WYNN US Asean Alliance Global Group Inc. Belle Corp. Bloomberry Resorts Corporation GentingBhd Genting Malaysia Bhd Genting Hong Kong Ltd. Genting Singapore PLC NagaCorp Ltd. Region Average AGI PM BEL PM BLOOM PM GENT MK GENM MK GENHK SP GENS SP 3918 HK 14.9 88.0 Pacific Aristocrat Leisure Ltd. Crown Ltd. Echo Investment S.A. SkyCityEntertainment Group TABCorp Holdings Ltd. Tatts Group Ltd. Region Average MSCI Index MSCI Asia ex Japan MSCI China MSCI Hong Kong MSCI Consumer Discretionary MSCI Asia ex Japan MSCI China MSCI Hong Kong Source: Bloomberg, FactSet 21 December 2012 EV/EBITDA 12Y 12.9 11.2 9.5 20.0 10.6 14.0 13.1 13Y 11.2 9.8 8.9 15.3 9.5 12.8 11.4 ROE 12Y 38.2 12.2 86.8 21.5 35.3 129.1 57.0 13Y 30.8 13.1 65.4 29.4 34.8 102.3 48.8 EPS Growth 12Y 139.4 (58.4) 37.8 9.9 22.9 11.8 21.9 13Y 12.0 21.6 1.9 43.9 10.8 10.3 16.0 10.7 12.9 10.7 10.1 11.1 10.0 10.8 9.6 9.1 9.9 (200.0) 17.6 (5.8) 53.7 (33.6) (337.3) 19.5 (3.1) 62.4 (64.6) 8.0 (41.7) (2.6) (12.1) 30.4 21.2 19.1 11.5 20.5 11.6 57.0 14.0 13.1 18.6 25.2 11.5 26.5 12.8 67.9 41.5 13.9 11.9 14.0 21.9 9.3 24.1 5.9 7.5 21.6 11.4 9.0 17.7 9.9 35.3 22.9 5.2 6.7 16.2 9.8 6.9 14.1 12.3 2.9 (9.8) 13.6 12.3 8.1 9.8 29.5 9.8 13.1 4.8 20.8 11.7 12.5 10.3 9.9 33.2 14.5 (24.9) 134.8 n.m (15.6) 7.9 (21.7) (35.7) 22.7 9.6 16.8 29.6 437.0 0.5 9.9 33.3 14.8 24.1 70.7 ALL AU CWN AU EGP AU SKC NZ TAH AU TTS AU 19.5 17.9 21.9 14.7 6.2 12.5 15.4 16.5 16.6 21.5 14.3 14.8 19.0 17.1 11.3 12.8 10.0 8.5 4.6 7.9 9.2 9.6 11.8 8.8 8.3 6.9 10.6 9.3 30.3 12.6 4.3 17.8 25.7 12.1 17.1 34.0 12.6 4.6 17.6 10.4 8.1 14.6 27.2 57.6 (57.6) 6.2 148.7 (1.9) 30.0 18.2 (11.5) 21.8 5.0 (57.6) (25.6) (8.3) MXASJ MXCN MXHK 13.1 10.9 16.5 11.5 9.8 15.3 8.7 7.0 16.0 7.5 5.9 14.2 12.4 14.7 8.2 12.8 14.7 8.4 4.7 (0.4) (11.8) 13.8 11.0 8.3 Index MXASJCD MXCN0CD MXHK0CD 11.3 16.4 19.5 10.0 13.2 16.1 8.1 6.8 14.0 7.3 5.9 12.1 17.8 14.5 19.1 17.4 15.7 20.9 14.9 (13.7) 19.6 13.2 24.2 21.0 Page 8 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Company background Wynn Macau is the 12th casino to open in Macau since Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau’s (STDM) monopoly ended in December 2001. Wynn Macau opened on 6 September 2006 at the centre of the Macau peninsula. In December 2007 and November 2009, it added gaming space and new food and beverage and retail amenities. On 21 April 2010, WM expanded and opened a second hotel tower, Encore. Wynn Macau features: 265,000 sq ft of gaming space Two luxury hotel towers with a total of 1,008 rooms and suites 54,200 sq ft of high-end, brand-name retail shopping Casual and fine dining in eight restaurants Two health clubs and spas, a salon and a pool Lounges and meeting facilities WM is a 72%-owned subsidiary of Wynn Resorts Limited (WRL) (WYNN US, Not Rated). WRL was founded by Mr Stephen A. Wynn who also serves as WM’s Executive Director, Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President. Mr Wynn is well-regarded for the design, development and operation of Wynn Las Vegas, Encore, Bellagio, Mirage and Treasure Island, which are all recognised as premier destination resorts in Las Vegas. In June 2002, WM was granted a 20-year casino concession by the Macau government. The concession terminates on 26 Jun 2022 but may be extended for a maximum of five years. WM was also granted the right to grant a subconcession to another company, subject to government approval. In September 2006, Melco Crown paid WM USD900m (HKD7b) for its subconcession. In July 2004, WM signed a land concession contract with the Macau government for 16 acres of land on which WM currently sits. Under the concession, WM leases the land for an initial period of 25 years until August 2029, with a right to renew with government approval for additional periods terminating no later than 19 December 2049. In addition, there is annual rent of MOP3.2m (HKD3.1m). Source: Company, Various Chart 20: Wynn Macau Chart 21: Encore Source: Company Source: Company 21 December 2012 Page 9 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Figure 22: Wynn Macau – SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses Premium gaming product offering Strong bargaining power on commission rates Not positioned for mass market growth High investment cost on a premium product Opportunities Threats Wynn Cotai expansion Policy restrictions GGR slowdown Source: Maybank KE Figure 23: Selected board members and management Mr. Stephen A. Wynn Mr. Stephen A. Wynn, aged 70, has been a director of the company since its inception and an executive director, the chairman of the Board of Directors, chief executive officer and president of the company since 16 September 2009. Mr. Wynn has served as Director, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of WRM since October 2001. Mr. Wynn has also served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Wynn Resorts, Limited since June 2002. Mr. Wynn has over 40 years of experience in the gaming casino industry. Ms. Linda Chen Ms. Linda Chen, aged 45, has been an executive director and the chief operating officer of the company since 16 September 2009 and chief operating officer of WRM since June 2002. Ms. Chenis responsible for the marketing and strategic development of WRM. Ms. Chen is also a director of Wynn Resorts, Limited and President of WIML. In these positions, she is responsible for the setup of international marketing operations of Wynn Resorts, Limited. Prior to joining the Group, Ms. Chen was Executive Vice President — International Marketing at MGM Mirage, a role she held from June 2000 until May 2002, and was responsible for the international marketing operations for MGM Grand, Bellagio and The Mirage. Prior to this position, Ms. Chen served as the Executive Vice President of International Marketing for Bellagio and was involved with its opening in 1998. She was also involved in the opening of the MGM Grand in 1993 and The Mirage in 1989. Mr. Ian Michael Coughlan Mr. Ian Michael Coughlan, aged 53, has been an executive Director of the Company since 16 September 2009. Mr. Coughlan is also the President of WRM, a position he has held since July 2007. In this role, he is responsible for the entire operation and development of Wynn Macau. Prior to this role, Mr. Coughlan was Director of Hotel Operations — Worldwide for Wynn Resorts, Limited. Mr. Coughlan has over 30 years of hospitality experience with leading hotels across Asia, Europe and the United States. Before joining Wynn Resorts, Limited, he spent ten years with The Peninsula Group, including posts as General Manager of The Peninsula Hong Kong from September 2004 to January 2007, and General Manager of The Peninsula Bangkok from September 1999 to August 2004. His previous assignments include senior management positions at The Oriental Singapore, and a number of Ritz-Carlton properties in the United States. Mr. Robert Alexander Gansmo Mr. Robert Alexander Gansmo, aged 42, is the Senior Vice President — Chief Financial Officer of WRM, a position he has held since April 2009. Prior to taking this position, Mr. Gansmo was the Director — Finance of WRM, a position he assumed in January 2007. Mr. Gansmo is responsible for the management and administration of WRM’s finance division. Before joining WRM, Mr. Gansmo worked at Wynn Resorts, Limited, where he served as the Director of Financial Reporting from November 2002. Prior to joining the Group, Mr. Gansmo practiced as a certified public accountant with firms in Las Vegas, Washington and California, including KPMG Peat Marwick, Arthur Andersen, and Deloitte and Touche. Source: Company 21 December 2012 Page 10 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited Appendix 1: Wynn Cotai The Wynn Cotai land concession contract On 1 August 2008, WM entered into an agreement with its former Cotai partner to pay the latter for its relinquishment of certain rights with respect to its business interests in a potential Cotai project (Wynn Cotai). WM will pay its former Cotai partner USD50m (HKD389m) within 15 days after the Macau government publishes WM’s rights to the Cotai land in the Macau government’s official gazette. On 9 September 2011, WM announced that it formally accepted the terms and conditions of a land concession contract from the Macau government in respect of approximately 51 acres of the Cotai land. The concession permits WM to develop a resort containing a five-star hotel, gaming areas, retail, entertainment, food and beverage, spa and convention offerings. WM will lease the Cotai land for an initial term of 25 years from the date the concession is published in the Macau government’s official gazette with a right to renew, with government approval, for additional periods. The total land premium payable is MOP1.5b (HKD1.5b). It comprised a down payment of MOP500m (HKD485.4m) and eight additional semi-annual payments of MOP130.9m (HKD127.1m), which includes 5% interest. The first of the eight semi-annual payments is due six months from the date the concession is published in the Macau government’s official gazette. In addition, there is an annual rent of MOP6.2m (HKD6m) during development and MOP8.6m (HKD8.4m) once development is completed. The annual rent may be reviewed by the Macau government every five years. WM has been allocated 60 months from the date the concession is published in the Macau government’s official gazette to complete development. Source: Company 21 December 2012 Page 11 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited INCOME STATEMENT FYE Dec (HKDm) Revenue EBITDA Depreciation &Amortisation Operating Profit (EBIT) Interest (Exp)/Inc Associates One-offs Pre-Tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Recurring Net Profit Revenue Growth % EBITDA Growth (%) EBIT Growth (%) Net Profit Growth (%) Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) Tax Rate % 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F 29,498.1 7,951.3 (1,016.4) 5,982.3 (210.3) 122.3 5,894.2 26.8 5,921.0 6,664.6 29,841.0 7,779.6 (1,137.7) 6,552.3 (155.4) 0.0 6,396.9 (81.7) 6,315.2 6,315.2 31,611.5 8,209.3 (1,189.8) 6,919.9 (344.3) 0.0 6,575.5 (85.7) 6,489.8 6,489.8 34,705.7 9,168.9 (1,244.5) 7,811.9 (578.8) 0.0 7,233.0 (92.6) 7,140.5 7,140.5 31.5 35.3 27.4 1.2 (2.2) 9.5 5.9 5.5 5.6 9.8 11.7 12.9 33.9 48.1 12.0 6.7 (5.2) 12.0 2.8 2.8 12.0 10.0 10.0 12.0 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F 5,894.2 1,016.4 210.3 1,608.5 (15.5) 703.2 9,417.2 (923.5) (629.9) 47.9 (1,505.5) (186.8) 0.5 (6,225.1) (196.3) 0.0 (6,607.5) 1,304.1 6,396.9 1,137.7 155.4 (15.1) 15.9 0.0 7,690.8 (350.0) 0.0 54.0 (296.0) (1,733.5) 0.0 (5,682.2) (209.4) 0.0 (7,625.0) (230.2) 6,575.5 1,189.8 344.3 72.6 (80.2) 0.0 8,102.1 (4,200.0) 0.0 59.4 (4,140.6) 9,040.0 0.0 (4,541.7) (403.7) 0.0 4,094.6 8,056.0 7,233.0 1,244.5 578.8 279.5 (83.1) 0.0 9,252.8 (8,050.0) 0.0 65.3 (7,984.7) 0.0 0.0 (2,855.4) (644.1) 0.0 (3,499.6) (2,231.5) CASH FLOW FYE Dec (HKDm) Profit before taxation Depreciation Net interest receipts/(payments) Working capital change Cash tax paid Others (incl'd exceptional items) Cash flow from operations Capex Disposal/(purchase) Others Cash flow from investing Debt raised/(repaid) Equity raised/(repaid) Dividends (paid) Interest payments Others Cash flow from financing Change in cash BALANCE SHEET FYE Dec (HKDm) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Fixed Assets Other LT Assets Cash/ST Investments Other Current Assets Total Assets 9,969.3 1,088.8 5,156.7 1,145.1 17,359.9 9,181.6 1,088.8 4,926.5 1,158.1 16,355.0 12,191.7 1,088.8 12,982.5 1,214.3 27,477.4 18,997.2 1,088.8 10,751.1 1,310.8 32,147.9 ST Debt Other Current Liabilities LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Minority Interest Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities-Capital 2,302.7 7,022.7 2,500.8 1,505.3 0.0 4,028.4 17,359.9 1,110.0 7,406.8 1,960.0 1,216.8 0.0 4,661.4 16,355.0 1,110.0 7,829.7 11,000.0 928.2 0.0 6,609.6 27,477.4 1,110.0 8,503.7 11,000.0 639.6 0.0 10,894.6 32,147.9 101,157.2 4,803.5 (353.3) (3,023.6) 110,235.4 3,070.0 (1,856.5) (2,432.2) 110,235.4 12,110.0 (872.5) 5,257.2 110,235.4 12,110.0 1,358.9 2,448.1 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F 27.0 20.3 26.1 22.0 26.0 21.9 26.4 22.5 20.1 160.1 42.0 22.6 1.1 31.7 1.7 3.6 9.3 17.8 3.0 Net Cash 0.6 0.0 21.2 145.3 37.5 21.2 1.1 40.6 1.8 5.3 9.3 17.8 3.0 Net Cash 0.4 0.0 20.5 115.2 29.6 20.5 1.4 18.8 1.2 2.3 9.3 17.8 3.0 Net Cash 1.5 0.1 20.6 81.6 24.0 20.6 2.5 12.3 1.1 2.7 9.3 17.8 3.0 12.5 1.3 0.1 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F 1.3 1.7 0.8 5.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 5.8 1.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.3 6.1 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.2 2.1 6.7 1.8 0.6 Share Capital (m) Gross Debt/(Cash) Net Debt/(Cash) Working Capital RATES & RATIOS FYE Dec EBITDA Margin % Op. Profit Margin % Net Profit Margin % ROE % ROA % Net Margin Ex. El % Dividend Cover (x) Interest Cover (x) Asset Turnover (x) Asset/Debt (x) Debtors Turn (days) Creditors Turn (days) Inventory Turn (days) Net Gearing % Debt/ EBITDA (x) Debt/ Market Cap (x) PER SHARE DATA FYE Dec (HKD) EPS CFPS BVPS SPS EBITDA/share DPS Source: Company data, Maybank KE 21 December 2012 Page 12 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL P K BASU Regional Head, Research & Economics (65) 6432 1821 pk.basu@maybank-ke.com.sg WONG Chew Hann, CA Acting Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com ONG Seng Yeow Regional Products & Planning (852) 2268 0644 ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com Luz LORENZO Economist Philippines | Indonesia (63) 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com MALAYSIA WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com Strategy Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com Banking - Regional LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com Oil & Gas Automotive Shipping ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com Plantations Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com Aviation Petrochem Power YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com Gaming – Regional Media Power TAN CHI WEI, CFA (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com Construction & Infrastructure Power WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com Property & REITs LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com Building Materials Manufacturing Technology LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com Technicals HONG KONG / CHINA Edward FUNG Head of Research (852) 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk Construction Ivan CHEUNG, CFA (852) 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk Property Industrial Ivan LI, CFA (852) 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk Banking & Finance Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Consumer Andy POON (852) 2268 0645 andypoon@kimeng.com.hk Telecom & equipment Alex YEUNG (852) 2268 0636 alexyeung@kimeng.com.hk Industrial Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 warrenlau@kimeng.com.hk Technology - Regional Karen Kwan (852) 2268 0640 karenkwan@kimeng.com.hk China Property INDIA Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 jigar@maybank-ke.co.in Oil & Gas Automobile Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 anubhav@maybank-ke.co.in Metal & Mining Capital goods Property Ganesh RAM (91) 226623 2607 ganeshram@maybank-ke.co.in Telecom Contractor 21 December 2012 SINGAPORE Gregory YAP Head of Research (65) 6432 1450 gyap@maybank-ke.com.sg Technology & Manufacturing Telcos - Regional Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 wilsonliew@maybank-ke.com.sg Hotel & Resort Property & Construction James KOH (65) 6432 1431 jameskoh@maybank-ke.com.sg Logistics Resources Consumer Small & Mid Caps YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460 yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg Healthcare Offshore & Marine Alison FOK (65) 6432 1447 alisonfok@maybank-ke.com.sg Services S-chips Bernard CHIN (65) 6432 1146 bernardchin@maybank-ke.com.sg Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation) ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 ongkianlin@maybank-ke.com.sg REITs / Property Wei Bin (65) 6432 1455 weibin@maybank-ke.com.sg S-chips Small & Mid Caps INDONESIA Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125 ksetiawan@maybank-ke.co.id Consumer Strategy Telcos Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 lariesandi@maybank-ke.co.id Base metals Coal Oil & Gas Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 rmarina@maybank-ke.co.id Banking Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 panugrah@maybank-ke.co.id Auto Heavy equipment Plantation Toll road Adi N. WICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1130 anwicaksono@maybank-ke.co.id Generalist Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1134 ayunus@maybank-ke.co.id Cement Infrastructure Property Arwani PRANADJAYA (62) 21 2557 1129 apranadjaya@maybank-ke.co.id Technicals THAILAND Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 Sukit.u@maybank-ke.co.th Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th Consumer/ Big Caps Andrew STOTZ Strategist (66) 2658 6300 ext 5091 Andrew@maybank-ke.co.th Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 mayuree.c@maybank-ke.co.th Strategy Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th Media Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th Energy Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 termporn.t@maybank-ke.co.th Property Woraphon WIROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 woraphon.w@maybank-ke.co.th Banking & Finance Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th Transportation Small cap. Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 chatchai.j@maybank-ke.co.th Electronics Pongrat RATANATAVANANANDA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1398 pongrat.R@maybank-ke.co.th Services/ Small Caps VIETNAM Michael KOKALARI, CFA Head of Research (84) 838 38 66 47 michael.kokalari@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8081 tuyen.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Food and Beverage Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8084 van.ngo@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Banking Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8242 diep.trinh@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Technology Utilities Construction Dang Thi Kim Thoa (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8083 thoa.dang@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Consumer Nguyen Trung Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 hoa.nguyen@maybank-kimeng.com.vn Steel Sugar Resources PHILIPPINES Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com Utilities Conglomerates Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com Consumer Media Cement Kenneth NERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@maybank-atrke.com Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com Banks Construction Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8842 ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com Mining Page 13 of 16 Wynn Macau Limited APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. 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