Voting and Elections Political Science 3234 (96576) Craig L. Brians, Ph.D. www.psci.vt.edu/brians/ CBRIANS@vt.edu Fall 2008 MWF 11:15a-12:05p Torg 1050 Office Hours: 2:15p-3:00p MWF 522 Major Williams Hall 231-7544 Texts and Readings: Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich and David W. Rohde. 2007. Change and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006 Elections. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press. Goff, Keli. 2008. Party Crashing: How the Hip-Hop Generation Declared Political Independence. New York, NY: BasicCivitas. Maisel, L. Sandy, and Mark D. Brewer. 2008. Parties and Elections in America: The Electoral Process. 5th ed. Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield Wattenberg, Martin P. 2008. Is Voting for Young People? With a Postscript on Citizen Engagement. 2nd ed. New York, New York: Longman. Newsweek will be read weekly. To subscribe, go to https://w1.buysub.com/pubs/N4/NWM/NWM_lowest_single.jsp?cds_page_id=32693&cd s_mag_code=NWM&id=1219026212443&lsid=82302117572067096&vid=3&cds_response_ke y=I08TLTXT&cds_mag_code=NWM and enter your information, including a complete mailing address with zip code and a 1-year term and your credit card information. The Roanoke Times will be read daily, with particular attention given to electoral politics. To subscribe, go to https://secure.roanoke.com/subscribe/ and choose “7 DAYS delivery for $8.95 (per month).” Home delivery will take three to five days to begin, so you need to order this as soon as possible. It is crucial that your subscription runs through the end of the calendar year, as you will need access to the paper for the Final Exam. Course Description: In this upper-level course, students will learn how citizens evaluate candidates, issues, parties and their political context. Both stability and recent changes in voters' behavior are central to the course. Building upon a background in classic political science research and a general understanding of American voting behavior, three election campaigns are empirically examined in greater depth: the 2004 Presidential race and the 2006 Congressional elections. The 2008 Presidential contest will be studied as it develops during the term. Class assignments call for students to analyze primary data sources, while developing a familiarity with academic political science research. Each of the texts serves a distinct, but related, function in this course. The Maisel and Brewer work broadly surveys many of the structural and contextual (e.g., party) factors that influence election outcomes. In the Abramson, Aldrich and Rohde text, we see the recent presidential and congressional elections (and voters) empirically analyzed, and placed in the context of previous recent electoral contests. The two other books specifically examine the political views, participation, and choices of younger citizens. Goff argues that younger African Americans are moving away from their elders’ solid support for the Democratic party, while Wattenberg provides considerable empirical evidence that younger citizens are less likely to become involved in politics than was their parents’ generation. The Fall campaigns should offer evidence that either illustrates or challenges the claims made in these latter two books. The most timely examples of practical politics are contained in the daily paper and summarized and analyzed each Tuesday in Newsweek. Subscription instructions for The Roanoke Times and Newsweek are noted above. These publications will be discussed each day in class, and your knowledge of current news articles will be necessary for exams. Additionally, recent journal or newspaper articles may be assigned from time to time. Articles containing election information will also be used for students' term papers This class encourages students to make full use of business and professional communication media. This syllabus is available as a PDF on the Web (www.psci.vt.edu/brians/). Students are likewise encouraged to utilize the wealth of political information and research available at links from the course Web page. Your instructor is best contacted by phone (231-7544), via e-mail (cbrians@vt.edu), or during scheduled class or 1 office hours. If you email, please follow business protocol by identifying your emails with a descriptive subject, to avoid being confused with spam. For example, in the subject line of each message, please place the class number (e.g., PSCI 3234) first, then the subject of your message. If the message is not referring to a specific course, please note "PSCI" before the subject. This additional cue should make it much easier for us to communicate. Every effort will be made to reply to emails within 24 hours on business days. Many courserelated or research-oriented questions require interactive responses and may be better addressed by phone or in person; therefore, include your name and phone contact info in any emails. Grading: Students will complete statistics lab exercises, three pop quizzes, a mid-term exam, a term paper project, and a final exam. Statistical computer lab exercises, reviewing your knowledge of SPSS, account for 10% of the grade. Each pop quiz accounts for 5%, the mid-term is worth 15%, and the final exam counts for 20% of your grade. The term paper project (35% of grade) is comprised of four graded components: 1) a 2-3 page outline (5%) of the paper and its underlying research in the literature and preliminary data analysis, 2) a 8-9 page paper draft (10%), 3) a 11-12 page final paper (15%), and 4) an in-class oral, group presentation (5%) of the student's paper material. Additionally, class participation and attendance will be factored into the remaining 5% of your grade. Class attendance is mandatory, and roll will be taken. One point per calendar day will be deducted from late assignments, papers or late paper outlines. Exams must be taken on the date scheduled unless excused by the instructor prior to the exam day, or the student can provide written verification from a medical doctor of an illness or health emergency. The final examination will be administered as directed by University policy on th Wednesday, December 17 from 4:25pm-6:25pm. Paper project: Each student will be assigned an earlier presidential campaign to compare with 2004, analyzing how a segment of the population, campaign, or media use has shifted, and the effect this has had on turnout or vote choice. For the more recent election, students will utilize data provided by the instructor, while for the earlier campaign you will depend more heavily on published research. An outline of the paper (including all references) is due on Friday, October 3rd, with a revised draft paper due about a month later, and the final paper due at the time of each group's in-class presentation in the latter part of the term. The instructor will assign presentation partners and schedule the oral presentation dates. Further details on the course paper will be distributed in class in the first several weeks of instruction. Statistical Computer Lab work: A working Knowledge of SPSS is required for the term paper in this course. To refresh your memory of data analysis techniques, there will be several review assignments that you will independently complete. The data for the course will be posted on the instructor’s website. The latest version of SPSS is found in several computer labs on campus, including Torgersen 1010 and 1080. Anyone wanting additional assistance on SPSS and these assignments is encouraged to meet with your GTA or Professor Brians during office hours or by-appointment. Further details on the SPSS review assignments will be distributed to the class in the first several weeks of instruction. An incomplete (“I”) is assigned only to a student who is otherwise passing the class and only in cases of unavoidable or unforeseen circumstances (e.g., major illness) preventing a student from completing the course requirements. Verifiable documentary evidence, such as a Medical Doctor’s note, is required. Any student who feels that he or she may need an accommodation because of a disability (e.g., learning disability, attention deficit disorder, psychological, physical, etc.) should make an appointment to see me during or outside of office hours. To maintain a fair and untainted learning environment for all students, there must be no cheating, plagiarism, or other dishonest conduct, as defined by Virginia Tech policy. Each of these terms is defined in the Virginia Tech Honor Code (www.honorsystem.vt.edu/). Each and every graded assignment shall include a statement personally signed by the student stating that the work was performed by the undersigned student. All course work must be completed solely by the individual student, unless specifically identified in writing as a group project by your professor. Any violations of the honor code will be fully reported. Instructions for citing others’ ideas and work are included on the instructor’s website. The APSA style guide may be found in the left hand column of www.psci.vt.edu/brians/, under Lab Manual, by clicking on the link: Style Guide -- Parenthetical Citations and the Reference List. 2 Voting and Elections (PSCI 3234): Fall 2008 Topic Aug. 25: Readings Introduction to the class The Empirical Study of Voting and Elections Nomination System Nomination Strategy Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 8 (pg. 273-288) Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 8 (pg. 288-305) Aug. 27: 2004 Nomination Campaign Conventions Abramson et al.: Chapter 1 Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 8 (pg. 305-316) Aug. 29: Conventions Recap from the newspaper Sept. 1: Campaign Organization Campaign Strategies and Tactics Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 9 (pg. 317-334) Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 9 (pg. 335-362) Sept. 3: Free Media – Role in Politics Paid Media Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 10 (pg. 363-382) Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 10 (pg. 383-392) Sept. 5: Elections and Political Parties US Political Parties, and their Organization Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 1 Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 2 Sept. 8: Voting in America Who Voted? Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 3 Abramson et al.: Chapter 4 Sept. 10: Partisanship and the Gender Gap Brians, Craig Leonard. 2005. "Women for Women? Gender and Party Bias in Voting for Female Candidates." American Politics Research 33(May): 357-375. Sept. 12: Interest Groups Work to Influence Politics Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 4 Sept. 15: Paying to Run: Campaign Finance Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 5 Sept. 17: Outlining: Organizing your thoughts Sept. 19: Researching the Literature Æ Meet in the Library: 207a Sept. 22: 2004 General Election Campaign 2004 Election Results Abramson et al.: Chapter 2 Abramson et al.: Chapter 3 Sept. 24: Changing Loyalties of Young Black Americans? Goff: pg. 1-59 Sept. 26: Clintons and Obamas Goff: pg. 60-123 Sept. 29: Black and American’s Next Leader: Does Race Matter? Goff: pg. 124-162 Oct. 1: Race, Class, and the GOP in (Black) America Goff: pg. 163-253 Oct. 3: Paper Outline Due Who Follows the News? Wattenberg: pg. 1-60 Oct. 6: What do Young People Know (about Politics)? Wattenberg: pg. 61-94 Oct. 8: Why don’t you guys vote? Wattenberg: pg. 95-138 Oct. 10: Fall Break – No Class 3 Oct. 13: Does youth turnout matter? What can be done? Wattenberg: pg. 139-174 Oct. 15: If not voting, do you do participate in other ways? Wattenberg: Postscript Oct. 17: Discussion Oct. 20: Midterm Exam Oct. 22: State and Local Nominations State and Local Elections Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 6 Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 7 Oct. 24: Congressional Voting: Candidates in 2004 Congressional Voting: The electorate in 2004 Abramson et al.: Chapter 9 Abramson et al.: Chapter 10 Oct. 27: Literature Research: Advanced Techniques Æ Meet in the Library: 207a Oct. 29: Congressional Voting: The 2006 election Abramson et al.: Chapter 11 Oct. 31: Recalling Election 2000 Walter R. Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2004. "The Wrong Man Is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida." Perspectives on Politics 2(September): 525535. Nov. 3: Election Expectations Nov. 5: Election Recap Nov. 7: Paper Draft Due Groups’ Political Participation Abramson et al.: Chapter 5 Nov. 10: Candidate Evaluations Abramson et al.: Chapter 6 (pg. 134-143) Nov. 12: Issue-based Voting Abramson et al.: Chapter 6 (pg. 143-159) Nov. 14: Retrospective Voting: Performance? Abramson et al.: Chapter 7 Nov. 17: Partisanship Today Abramson et al.: Chapter 8 Nov. 19: Party in Government Paper Project – Discussion Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 11 Nov. 21: Paper Project – Questions and Answers Data Analysis: Reviewing SPSS Nov. 22Nov. 30: Thanksgiving Break Dec. 1: Presenting Research: A Tutorial Dec. 3: Student presentations Dec. 5: Student presentations Dec. 8: Student presentations Dec. 10: The Future? / Summary and Review Dec. 17: Final Exam (4:25pm-6:25pm) Abramson et al.: Chapter 12 Maisel and Brewer: Chapter 12 4