NAB Residential Property Survey: Q4 2014
by NAB Group Economics
Embargoed until: 11.30am Wednesday 21 January 2015
NAB Residential Property Index falls as house price expectations
pared back and rents weaken. Sentiment softer in all states (and
still deeply negative in WA). Almost 10% of all property is being
purchased by first home buyers as an “investment”. Foreign
buyers less active all states except VIC (now 1 in 3 of all new
property sales). Over half of all foreign transactions are
apartments, one-third houses and the balance re-development.
Around 70% of all foreign purchases are properties valued less
than $1mn; 5% in excess of $5mn.
Survey highlights:

NAB Residential Property Index fell to +12 points in Q4 (+19 in
Q3). NSW overtook QLD as strongest state; sentiment notably
lower in SA/NT and still deeply negative in WA. QLD and VIC most
optimistic looking forward and WA weakest by some margin.

Outlook for house prices over next 1-2 years pared back in all states (NAB also expects price growth to slow). Expectations
for rents unchanged, with mildly stronger expectations in VIC and QLD masking softer outlooks in NSW and SA/NT.
Foreign buyers in new property markets less active in all states, except VIC where they accounted for 32.5% (or 1 in 3) of
all sales - a new high. Around 17% of FHBs in the new property market were for owner occupation and 8% for investment.
Around 53% of foreign purchases were for apartments, 31% for houses and 16% for re-development. By price point, 40%
of purchases were between $500k to <$1mn and 29% less than $500k. Around 5% were for premium property (+$5mn).
Housing affordability, construction costs and a lack of development sites seen as the biggest constraints in new housing
market, while employment security and price levels the biggest impediment to buying established property.
Established property dominated by owner occupiers (42.6%). Local investors account for 22% of total demand, with FHBs
(owner occupier) 16.1% with FHBs (investor) 9.3%. Foreign buyers more active (8.7%), led by NSW (11.3%) and VIC (12.8%).
Prospects for capital growth over the next 12 months were pared back at all price ranges in both the established housing
and apartment markets in Q4, except for apartments valued between $1-2mn.





House price expectations weaken
NAB also expects house prices to cool
NAB Property Survey - House Price Expectations (%)
%
4.0
%
20
2.0
15
0.0
10
-2.0
5
Victoria
NSW
Qld
SA/NT
Next 2 years
Next 12 months
Q4'14
Q3'14
Q2'14
Q1'14
Q4'13
Q3'13
Q2'13
Q1'13
Q4'12
Q3'12
Q2'12
Q1'12
Q4'11
Q3'11
Q2'11
Q1'11
Australia
Next Qtr
Expectations...
Estimated price growth in relevant survey period...
-4.0
Q3
Q4
Next
Next
0
-5
-10
percentage changes represent through the year growth rates to Q4
2011
2012
Capital City Average
WA
NAB Residential Property Index
Q2
NAB House Price Forecasts
2013
Sydney
2014
Melbourne
2015f
Brisbane
2016f
Adelaide
Perth
Foreign buyers less active in new housing markets
Share of Demand for New & Existing Properties from
Overseas Buyers
Next
%
2014
2014
2014
Qtr
1 yr
2 yrs
VIC
36
36
21
30
51
49
NSW
32
30
29
29
37
32
QLD
27
37
28
46
58
58
SA/NT
18
29
-25
13
31
44
WA
-29
-39
-34
-20
-3
16
Index
19
19
12
22
37
39
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Alan Oster, Chief Economist
(03) 8634 2927 0414 444 652 (mobile)
New Properties
Robert De Iure, Senior Economist - Industry Analysis
(03) 8634 4611 0477 723 769 (mobile)
Q4'14
Q3'14
Q2'14
Q1'14
Q4'13
Q3'13
Q2'13
Q1'13
Q4'12
Q3'12
Q2'12
Q1'12
Q4'11
Q3'11
Q2'11
Q1'11
Q4'10
Q3'10
Q2'10
0
Established Properties
Dean Pearson, Head of Industry Analysis
(03) 8634 2331 0457 517 342 (mobile)
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 1
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Residential Property - Market Performance
House price expectations
The housing market is loosing steam as house price
expectations soften in all states. National house prices
now expected to grow just 1.5% in the next year (2.1%
in Q3). Outlook strongest in VIC (2.2%), QLD (2.1%) and
NSW (1.5%), with prices flat in SA/NT and falling in WA
(-0.2%). Average national house prices to grow 1.8% in 2
years time (2.4% in Q3), with best prospects in QLD
(2.7%), VIC (2.2%) and NSW (1.9%). House prices tipped
to rise just 0.6% in WA and fall -0.2% in SA/NT.
House Price Expectations (%)
%
Rental expectations
Overall expectations for rents improved a little in Q4,
but are still fundamentally weak. National rents now
tipped to rise 0.8% next year (0.7% in Q3), led by mildly
stronger expectations in VIC (1.4%) and QLD (1.3%).
Prospects weakest in SA/NT (0.2%) and WA (-0.7%).
National outlook for rents in next 2 years unchanged at
1.2%, with improvements in VIC (2%) and QLD (1.8%)
masking softer outlooks in NSW (1%) and SA/NT (0.7%),
and negative returns in WA (-0.1%).
Rental Expectations (%)
%
5.0
4.0
Q3'14
Q4'13
Q4'14
Q3'14
WA
SA/NT
NSW
Australia
Victoria
WA
SA/NT
SA/NT
WA
NSW
WA
Qld
Q4'13
Australia
-2.0
Vic
-1.0
Australia
0.0
-1.0
Vic
0.0
Qld
1.0
SA/NT
1.0
Australia
2.0
NSW
2.0
Vic
3.0
Next 2 years
NSW
Next 12 months
3.0
Qld
Next 2 years
Qld
Next 12 months
4.0
Q4'14
NAB Residential Property Index
With house prices weakening and rental growth sitting at its lowest level since the survey was first compiled, the
NAB Residential Property Index fell to +12 points in Q4 (+19 points in Q3) to now sit below its long-term average
(+14 points). Market sentiment weakened in all states in Q4, but was overall strongest in NSW (+29 points), QLD
(+28 points) and VIC (+21 points). Sentiment weakened notably in SA/NT (-25 points) and is still deeply negative in
WA (-34 points). The NAB Residential Property Index is expected to rise to +37 points next year and +39 points in 2
years time. Respondents from QLD and VIC are still the most optimistic overall, with sentiment among property
professionals in WA tipped to remain weakest in the country - and by some margin.
NAB Residential Property Index
Index
NAB Residential Property Index
Index
60
80
50
60
40
40
30
20
20
0
10
-20
0
-40
NSW
Q4'13
Queensland
Victoria
Australia
Q3'14
SA/NT
WA
Q4'14
Australia
Victoria
NSW
Qld
SA/NT
Next 2 years
-50
Next Qtr
-40
Next 12 months
Q4'14
Q3'14
Q2'14
Q1'14
Q4'13
Q3'13
Q2'13
Q1'13
Q4'12
Q3'12
Q2'12
Q4'11
Q3'11
Q2'11
Q1'11
-30
Index value in...
Index value in relevant survey period...
-60
-20
Q1'12
-10
WA
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 2
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Residential Property - New Developments
Demand for new properties by buyer
Foreign buyers less prevalent in new housing markets in Q4. Foreign buyers accounted for 14.8% of demand
(16.8% in Q3) with this share to remain broadly unchanged at 15% over the next year. Foreign buyers less active
in all states, except VIC where they accounted for a record high 32.5% (or 1 in 3) of all sales - a new high. For the
first time, we have split first home buyers (FHBs) into owner occupiers and investors. While around 17% of FHBs
in new property were for owner occupation, around 8% (or about 1 in 12) of FHB purchases were for investment.
Percentage Share of Buyers - New Developments
40
%
35
30
30
20
25
10
20
0
15
Q4'13
Q3'14
10
5
Q4'14
Victoria
Australia
NSW
Qld
Q4'14
Q3'14
Q2'14
Q1'14
Q4'13
Q3'13
Q2'13
Q1'13
Q4'12
Q3'12
Q2'12
Q1'12
Q4'11
Q3'11
Q2'11
Q1'11
Q4'10
0
Q2'10
Other
Overseas Buyers
Australian Investors
Resident Owner
Occupiers
FHBs (imvestor)
Other
FHBs (owner occupier)
Next 12 months
Overseas Buyers
Australian Investors
FHBs (imvestor)
FHBs (owner occupier)
Resident Owner
Occupiers
Current Quarter
Share of Demand for New Properties from
Overseas Buyers (%)
Q3'10
%
50
WA
Type of Property Purchased by Foreign Buyers
In this survey, we asked what type of property foreigners were buying. Nationally, 53% of foreign purchases
were apartments, 31% houses and 16% for re-development. Interestingly, apartments made up just 44% of all
purchases in VIC (54-57% in other states), with foreigners buying more houses in VIC (38%) than in other states.
Type of Property Purchased by Foreign Investors
(% share of total)
%
Type of Property Purchased by Foreign Investors by
State (% share of total)
60
Dwelling/Land for
Re-Development
16%
Apartments
53%
50
40
30
20
10
0
Vic
Houses
31%
NSW
Apartments
Qld
Houses
SA/NT
WA
Dwelling/Land for Re-Development
Price Range of Property Purchased by Foreign Buyer
The majority of foreign buyers (40%) bought properties between $500k to <$1 million, with 29% buying
properties less than <$500k. Around 5% of all sales were for premium property (+$5 million). There was however
some variance between states. Whereas 18% of all sales nationally were in the $1-2 million range, it was as high
as 25% in NSW. Also notable was the higher proportion of top end (+$5mn) property bought in QLD (7.6%).
Price Range of Property Purchased by Foreign
Investors (% share of total)
$2mn to <$5mn
8%
$5mn+
5%
Price Range of Property Purchased by Foreign
Investors by State (% share of total)
%
60
<$500k
29%
$1mn to <$2mn
18%
50
40
30
20
10
0
$500k to <$1mn
40%
Vic
<$500k
NSW
$500k to <$1mn
Qld
SA/NT
$1mn to <$2mn
$2mn to <$5mn
WA
$5mn+
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 3
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Demand for new property by type and location
National demand for all types of new property softened in Q4, with a notable weakening in demand for new inner
city houses (especially in VIC and WA) and low rise apartments (VIC and WA) and for houses in the middle/outer
ring (VIC). Overall demand for new property was strongest for inner city high rise apartments (led by NSW and
QLD), marginally ahead of inner city houses (NSW and QLD) and CBD apartments (NSW). Overall demand remains
weakest for new high rise apartments located in the middle/outer rings, with demand for this property type
especially weak in VIC. Looking forward, property professionals are anticipating a further softening in national
demand for all types of new property next year. However, overall demand is still expected to remain “good” across
all new property types and locations. More detail is available in the individual State reports.
Demand for New Residential Developments
Demand for New Residential Developments
(current)
(next 12 months)
Inner City High Rise Apts
Inner City Houses
Inner City Houses
Inner City High Rise Apts
CBD Apartments
CBD Apartments
Inner City Low Rise Apts
Middle/Outer RingLow Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Houses
Middle/Outer Ring Houses
Middle/Outer RingLow Rise Apts
Inner City Low Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring High Rise Apts
0.50 Poor 1.50
Q4'13
Fair
2.50 Good 3.50Very Good
4.50Excellent5.50
Q3'14
0.50
Poor 1.50
Q4'13
Q4'14
Fair 2.50 Good 3.50Very Good
4.50 Excellent5.50
Q3'14
Q4'14
Constraints on new housing development
Housing affordability continues to be identified as the biggest constraint in new housing markets nationally,
although slightly less so than in Q3. Construction costs (especially in NSW and to a lesser extent VIC) and a lack of
development sites (mainly in NSW) are also considered to be “significant” constraints. With house prices slowing,
concern over the sustainability of house price gains has moderated somewhat, although it is still a “significant”
issue in NSW and VIC where median house prices are also highest in the country. Also notable was the “significant”
and growing concern over the level of interest rates in VIC and labour availability in NSW.
Constraints on New Housing Developments
Constraints on New Housing Developments by State
Labour Availability
Labour Availability
Rising Interest Rates
Construction Costs
Tight Credit for New Residential Development
Housing Affordability
Sustainability of House Price Gains
Sustainability of House Price Gains
Lack of Development Sites
Lack of Development Sites
Construction Costs
Tight Credit for New Residential Development
Housing Affordability
Rising Interest Rates
0.50Not at all1.50Not Very2.50Somewhat3.50
Significant
Q4'13
Q3'14
Significant
Significant
4.50
Significant
Q4'14
Very 5.50
Significant
Somewhat
Very
SA/NT
WA
Significant
0.50Not at all1.50Not Very2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
Significant
Significant
Significant
Victoria
NSW
Qld
Significant
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 4
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Residential Property - Existing Developments
Demand for existing property
Resident owner occupiers continue to dominate demand for established property with a market share of 42.6%
(48.1% in Q3), followed by local investors, with a market share of 22% (25.2% in Q3). Although lower than our
previous survey, these results may have been influenced by the split of FHBs into owner occupiers and investors.
Property professionals estimate that FHBs (owner occupier) accounted for 16.1% of total demand for established
property in Q4, with FHBs (investor) making up 9.3%. Foreign buyers were also slightly more active in established
property markets in Q4, with their share of total national demand inching up to 8.7% (8.2% in Q3). Foreign buyer
demand fell in QLD (6.1%) and WA (5.1%), but climbed to 11.3% in NSW and reached a new high of 12.8% in VIC.
Percentage Share of Buyers - Existing Properties
%
60
Current Quarter
50
Share of Demand for Existing Properties from
Overseas Buyers (%)
%
Next 12 months
14
40
12
30
10
Q4'13
Q3'14
Q4'14
4
2
Australia
Victoria
NSW
Qld
Q4'14
Q3'14
Q2'14
Q1'14
Q4'13
Q3'13
Q2'13
Q1'13
Q4'12
Q3'12
Q2'12
Q1'12
Q4'11
Q3'11
Q2'11
Q1'11
Q4'10
0
Q2'10
Other
Overseas Buyers
Australian Investors
Resident Owner Occupiers
FHBs (investor)
FHBs (owner occupier)
Other
Australian Investors
Resident Owner Occupiers
Overseas Buyers
6
FHBs (investor)
8
0
FHBs (owner occupier)
10
Q3'10
20
WA
Demand for existing property by type
At the national level, demand for all types of established property was assessed as “good” in Q4 and broadly
unchanged from Q3, with demand strongest for established houses located in the inner city and middle/outer ring.
Demand for existing residential property is expected to weaken across all market segments next year, with demand
expected to soften most for houses in the middle/outer ring and inner city apartments.
By state, demand for all types of established property continues to be “very good” in NSW, led by inner city houses,
low and high rise apartments and CBD apartments. In contrast, demand for all types of established property in WA
was assessed as only “fair”, mirroring very weak sentiment also seen in that state.
Demand for Existing Residential Property
Demand for Existing Residential Property by State
(current)
(current)
Middle/Outer Ring High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer RingLow Rise Apts
CBD Apartments
Middle/Outer Ring High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Low Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Houses
Inner City High Rise Apts
Inner City Low Rise Apts
Inner City Low Rise Apts
Inner City High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Houses
Inner City Houses
Inner City Houses
0.50
Q4'13
CBD Apartments
Poor 1.50
Fair
2.50 Good 3.50Very Good4.50 Excellent5.50
Q3'14
Q4'14
0.50
Victoria
Poor
1.50
Fair
NSW
2.50 Good 3.50Very Good4.50 Excellent5.50
Qld
Demand for Existing Residential Property
Demand for Existing Residential Property by State
(next 12 months)
(next 12 months)
Middle/Outer Ring High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer RingLow Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Low Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring High Rise Apts
Inner City High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Houses
CBD Apartments
Inner City Low Rise Apts
Inner City Low Rise Apts
Inner City High Rise Apts
Middle/Outer Ring Houses
Inner City Houses
Inner City Houses
0.50
Q4'13
WA
CBD Apartments
Poor 1.50
Fair
Q3'14
2.50 Good 3.50Very Good4.50 Excellent5.50
Q4'14
0.50
Victoria
Poor
NSW
1.50
Fair
2.50 Good 3.50Very Good4.50 Excellent5.50
Qld
WA
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 5
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Capital growth expectations
At the national level, capital growth expectations for the next 12 months were pared back at all price ranges in
both housing and apartment markets in Q4, except for apartments valued at between $1-2 million where they
improved slightly. Capital growth expectations were assessed as “good” for all houses <$1million and for
apartments <$750k. Expectations for capital growth at all other price points were assessed as “fair”.
By state, expectations for capital growth remain strongest in NSW across all price ranges, and significantly so in the
apartment market. In contrast, capital growth prospects are now clearly weakest in WA at all price points,
especially houses above $1 million and for apartments above $2 million, where prospects are considered “poor”.
Capital Growth by Price - Established Houses
Capital Growth by Price - Apartments
(next 12 months)
(next 12 months)
$5,000,001+
$5,000,001+
$2,000,001 - $5,000,000
$2,000,001 - $5,000,000
$1,000,001 - $2,000,000
$1,000,001 - $2,000,000
$750,001 - $1,000,000
$750,001 - $1,000,000
$500,001 - $750,000
$500,001 - $750,000
$250,001 - $500,000
$250,001 - $500,000
Less than $250,000
Less than $250,000
0.50
Poor
1.50
Fair
Q4'13
2.50 Good
3.50Very Good 4.50 Excellent 5.50
Q3'14
Q4'14
0.50
Poor
Capital Growth: Established Houses by State
$2,000,001 - $5,000,000
$2,000,001 - $5,000,000
$1,000,001 - $2,000,000
$1,000,001 - $2,000,000
$750,001 - $1,000,000
$750,001 - $1,000,000
$500,001 - $750,000
$500,001 - $750,000
$250,001 - $500,000
$250,001 - $500,000
Less than $250,000
Less than $250,000
1.50
Fair
2.50
NSW
Good
3.50 Very Good 4.50 Excellent 5.50
Q4'14
(next 12 months)
$5,000,001+
Poor
2.50 Good
Capital Growth: Established Apartments by State
$5,000,001+
0.50
Fair
Q3'14
(next 12 months)
Victoria
1.50
Q4'13
Very Good
3.50
4.50
Excellent
Qld
5.50
WA
0.50
Poor
Victoria
1.50
Fair
2.50
NSW
Good
Very Good
3.50
4.50
Qld
Excellent
5.50
WA
Constraints on existing property
With unemployment climbing and the economy slowing, employment security continues to be viewed as biggest
(and growing) impediment to buying existing property nationally and in most states, especially in SA/NT and WA.
NSW was the exception, with house price levels identified as the biggest impediment to buying an existing
property. House price levels were also a “significant” factor nationally, led by NSW, VIC and QLD. In contrast, the
level of constraint imposed on the market from a lack of stock was scaled back to “somewhat significant” in Q4,
although it was still seen as a “significant” in NSW. The impact on the market from rising interest rates was
unchanged in Q4, but property professionals saw relative returns from other investments as a bigger obstacle,
especially in QLD.
Major Constraints on Existing Property
Major Constraints on Existing Property by State
Employment Security
Relative Returns on
Other Investments
Level of Prices
Employment Security
Access to Credit
Level of Prices
Relative Returns on
Other Investments
Lack of Stock
Lack of Stock
Access to Credit
Rising Interest Rates
Rising Interest Rates
Not At All
Not Very
Somewhat
Very
0.50
1.50
2.50
3.50 Significant 4.50
5.50
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Q4'13
Q3'14
Q4'14
0.50
Victoria
Not At All
Not Very
Somewhat
Very
1.50
2.50
3.50 Significant 4.50
5.50
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
NSW
Qld
SA/NT
WA
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 6
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Suburbs tipped to enjoy above average capital growth
QUEENSLAND
Brisbane, Gold Coast, New Farm,
Toowoomba, West End
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Baldivis, Belmont, Bentley,
Kelmscott, Mandurah, Perth,
Subiaco
NEW SOUTH WALES
Eastwood, Glebe, Manly,
Marrickville, Newtown, Oran Park,
Penrith, Ryde, Surry Hills, Sydney
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Mile End, Norwood,
Parkside
VICTORIA
Essendon, Glen Iris, Ringwood
Survey R espondents Expectations
House Prices
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Next qtr
Next 1 yr
Next 2 yrs
VIC
1.0
1.8
1.1
1.4
2.2
2.2
NSW
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.9
QLD
0.9
1.4
0.8
1.3
2.1
2.7
SA/NT
0.3
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.3
WA
-0.3
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.2
0.6
Australia
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.5
1.8
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Next Qtr
Next 1 yr
Next 2 yrs
VIC
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.3
1.4
2.0
NSW
0.5
0.2
-0.3
0.3
0.8
1.0
QLD
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.6
1.3
1.8
SA/NT
0.5
-0.1
-0.9
0.0
0.2
0.7
WA
-2.0
-1.6
-1.5
-1.2
-0.7
-0.1
Australia
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.8
1.2
Rents
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 7
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
NAB’s View of Residential House Prices
With more signs emerging that the residential housing market is loosing steam, NAB Economics expects average
capital city house prices to cool to around 4% over the year to end-2015 and 2% over the year to end-2016. Our
assessment of the market remains that house price growth will continue to moderate because of rising
unemployment, sluggish household income growth, affordability concerns, cost of living pressures and high levels
of household debt. We are also forecasting two further interest rates cuts of 25 bps in March and 25 bps in August
2015 (bringing the official cash rate down to 2%) which should support house prices a little more than previously
expected.
Brisbane (5.7%) and Sydney (4.1%) are expected to lead the market for capital growth over the year to end-2015,
followed by Melbourne (2.7%), Adelaide (2.1%) and Perth (1.8%). Brisbane (3.8%), Sydney (2.3%) and Melbourne
(2.3%) are forecast to remain the best cities for capital gains in the year to end-2016, with house prices rising by
just 2.2% in Adelaide and 1% in Perth.
NAB Capital City House Price Forecasts*
Year to end-December
2011
2012
2013
2014e
2015f
2016f
Sydney
-3.2
4.6
16.0
10.7
4.1
2.3
Melbourne
-5.6
0.0
10.0
5.1
2.7
2.3
Brisbane
-5.4
1.6
5.7
6.8
5.7
3.8
Adelaide
-4.5
-0.2
5.1
4.9
2.1
2.2
Perth
-4.1
6.2
8.3
2.7
1.8
1.0
Capital City Average
-4.4
2.6
10.5
6.4
3.9
2.1
*percentage changes represent through the year growth rates
About the Survey
In April 2010, NAB launched the inaugural NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey with the aim of
developing Australia’s pre-eminent survey of market conditions in the Commercial Property market.
The large external panel of respondents consisted of Real Estate Agents/Managers, Property Developers,
Asset/Fund Managers and Owners/Investors.
Given the large number of respondents who are also directly exposed to the residential market, NAB expanded the
survey questionnaire to focus more extensively on the Australian Residential market.
Around 300 panellists participated in the Q4 2014 Survey and the breakdown of our Survey respondents - by
location, property sector and business type - are shown below.
Respondents by State
Western Australia
17%
ACT
3%
Tasmania
1%
Respondents by Property Sector
Hotels/
Entertainment
3%
Victoria
24%
Infrastructure
3%
Other
8%
Respondents by Business Type
Office Property
16%
Retail Property
14%
SA/NT
8%
Queensland
20%
New South Wales
29%
Residential Property
43%
Industrial Property
13%
Fund Managers
Valuers
(Real Estate)
7%
1%
Owners/Investors
in Real Property
16%
Property Developers
14%
Other
3%
Real Estate Agents
and Managers
41%
Asset
Managers/Property
Operators 14%
National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 8
NAB Residential Property Survey
Q4 2014
Group Economics
Alan Oster
Group Chief Economist
+61 3 8634 2927
Jacqui Brand
Personal Assistant
+61 3 8634 2181
Australian Economics
and Commodities
Rob Brooker
Head of Australian Economics
+61 3 8634 1663
James Glenn
Senior Economist - Australia
+(61 3) 9208 8129
Vyanne Lai
Economist - Australia
+(61 3) 8634 0198
Phinn Ziebell
Economist - Agribusiness
+(61 4) 75 940 662
Industry Analysis
International Economics
Dean Pearson
Head of Industry Analysis
+(61 3) 8634 2331
Tom Taylor
Head of Economics, International
+61 3 8634 1883
Robert De Iure
Senior Economist - Industry
Analysis
+(61 3) 8634 4611
Tony Kelly
Senior Economist - International
+(61 3) 9208 5049
Brien McDonald
Economist - Industry Analysis
+(61 3) 8634 3837
Amy Li
Economist - Industry Analysis
+(61 3) 8634 1563
Gerard Burg
Senior Economist - Asia
+(61 3) 8634 2788
John Sharma
Economist - Sovereign Risk
+(61 3) 8634 4514
Karla Bulauan
Economist - Industry Analysis
+(61 3) 8641 4028
Global Markets Research
Peter Jolly
Global Head of Research
+61 2 9237 1406
Australia
Economics
Spiros Papadopoulos
Senior Economist
+61 3 8641 0978
David de Garis
Senior Economist
+61 3 8641 3045
FX Strategy
Ray Attrill
Global Co-Head of FX Strategy
+61 2 9237 1848
Emma Lawson
Senior Currency Strategist
+61 2 9237 8154
Interest Rate Strategy
Skye Masters
Head of Interest Rate Strategy
+61 2 9295 1196
Credit Research
Michael Bush
Head of Credit Research
+61 3 8641 0575
Simon Fletcher
Senior Credit Analyst - FI
+61 29237 1076
Equities
Peter Cashmore
Senior Real Estate Equity Analyst
+61 2 9237 8156
Distribution
Barbara Leong
Research Production Manager
+61 2 9237 8151
Rodrigo Catril
Interest Rate Strategist
+61 2 9293 7109
New Zealand
UK/Europe
Stephen Toplis
Head of Research, NZ
+64 4 474 6905
Nick Parsons
Head of Research, UK/Europe,
and Global Co-Head of FX Strategy
+44207710 2993
Craig Ebert
Senior Economist
+64 4 474 6799
Doug Steel
Senior Economist
+64 4 474 6923
Kymberly Martin
Senior Market Strategist
+64 4 924 7654
Raiko Shareef
Currency Strategist
+64 4 924 7652
Gavin Friend
Senior Markets Strategist
+44 207 710 2155
Derek Allassani
Research Production Manager
+44 207 710 1532
Asia
Christy Tan
Head of Markets
Strategy/Research, Asia
+852 2822 5350
Yvonne Liew
Publications & Web Administrator
+64 4 474 9771
Important Notice
This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB"). Any advice contained in this
document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this
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decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it.
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National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 9