278 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia Chapter- Six Conclusions and Recummendations 6.1 Conclusions In the earlier chapter, an analysis of IWL, and its application to the water resources available in south Asia has been made. Each Chapter analysed the problems associated with realising the promising potential of the resources in a coherent manner. The study has indicated the significance of water, the magnitude of the problems, the manner in which they could be resolved, and the tremendous gains that would be realised from the judicious utilisation of these resources. Of the four principles that have emerged in IWL, i.e. territorial sovereignty, territorial integrity, prior appropriation and equitable utilisation, I advocate the wider acceptance of the equitable utilisation principle. Equity, which is the central theme of this book, has the ability to accommodate every interest and create win-win situations out of complicated conflicts between contestant states and communities. 6.2 Summary of Findings The first Chapter introduced the aims of this thesis and assessed the significance of the water resources of Nepal and their immense potential for the prosperity of that country as well as her south Asian neighbours. As a regional power, India has a great role to play but she must give attention to Nepal’s development in harmony with the norms of equity envisaged in Articles 5 and 6 of UNCIW. The best way to resolve water conflicts is by negotiation rather than judicial settlement, 1 in line with a liberal approach of equity. Conclusions and Recummendations / 279 The present circumstance of confrontation between Nepal and India is not conducive to the enhancement of co-operation for equitable utilisation of water resources. For example, India has constructed a network of reservoirs and dams along the whole Indo-Nepal border without giving prior notice to Nepal, thereby inundating huge areas of Nepalese territory. 2 No mitigation, elimination or compensation has been provided for such harm. This is a flagrant breach of IWL.3 The study suggests that in order to attain the maximum benefits for all the riparian states, international and regional cooperation is the first pre-condition. By doing so, poverty can be reduced, sustainable development undertaken; dependence within interdependence can be set out and the cloud of distrust can be converted into prosperity.4 Chapter two evaluated and demonstrated the long efforts exerted in the development and codification of IWL. There are several instruments that deserve universal application such as UNCIW. The exact application of those instruments, however, could vary depending upon the specific circumstances. Each watercourse has unique circumstances; 5 a resolution suitable for each set of circumstances is highly desirable. Even though the law is the same, it requires greater flexibility in the use of discretion and interpretation for a just and fair resolution, depending upon the specific nature of the problem. 2 3 4 1 B. R. Chauhan, Settlement of International Water Law Disputes in International Drainage Basins, Berlin: Eric Schmidt Verlag, 1981, p. 465. 5 As demonstrated in Chapter Four, India is constructing new reservoirs and dams which have submerged a huge amount of territory in Nepal. Neither notification was given, complaints heard nor compensation paid. Also see staff, “India completed Mahalisagar reservoir project” The Kathmandu Post 1 July 2003, staff, “SCIP Failed to resolve dispute”, The Kathmandu Post 13 August, 2003; India refused to acknowledge the harm caused by the reservoirs constructed without the consent of the Standing Committee for Inundation Problem (SCIP). Article 5 (Equitable Utilisation) and Article 7 (No Harm Rule) UNCIW, 36 ILM (1997), p. 722. B. G. Verghese, Waters of Hope, New Delhi: Oxford & IBH Pub., 1990, pp. 385-393. H. A. Smith, The Economic Use of International Rivers, London: P. S. King & son, 1931, p. 121. 280 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia The law developed so far is based on the principle of reasonable and equitable utilisation. Some argue that it is too ambiguous a principle with major problems in its interpretation and application. 6 There are, however, several guidelines in Article 6 for the proper interpretation and implementation of the provisions of such laws. The other fact is that the law is only a tool, the dominant factors are human will and desire to consistently address and harmonise the interests of the contestant states. The UNCIW was adopted as a holistic, framework law in 1997, even though this UN vote was not unanimous. Several states still entertain conflicting views on certain provisions of this law. For example, it has been argued that Article 5 of the UNCIW favours upstream states, whilst Article 7 favours downstream states. Similarly, which rules should prevail in the event of a conflict “equitable or no harm rules” remains a disputed issue. 7 Moreover, even in the application of these two rules, due to the ambiguity and vagueness surrounding them, there are still conflicting ideas.8 However, the rule of equitable utilisation, which is the core law, contains guidelines and the basis for its application, but it requires ongoing cooperation between states for its effective implementation.9 6 7 8 9 L. Caflisch, “Regulation of the Use of International Watercourses” in S. M. A. Salman & L. B. de Chazournes (eds), International Watercourses: Enhancing Cooperation and Managing Conflict, Washington DC: World Bank Technical paper no 14, p. 16; also see C. B. Bourne, “The Primacy of Equitable Utilisation in the 1997 Watercourse Convention” (1997) in XXXV CYBIL, pp. 215-231. S. C. McCaffrey, The Law of International Watercourses: NonNavigational Uses, Oxford: Oxford University, 2001, p. 308. R. St. McDonald, “Charles B. Bourne: Scholar, Teacher and Editor, Innovator in the Development of International Law of Watercourse” (1996) in XXXIV CYBIL, pp. 53-87. J. Brunnee & S. J. Toope, “The Changing Nile Basin Regime: Does Law Matter?” (2002) in 43 HILJ, pp 131-151; also see supra note 1, p. 467. Conclusions and Recummendations / 281 Chapter three deals with the origin, development and application of equity. Furthermore, application of equity in the sharing of natural resources, the practice of the ICJ and its predecessor, and other municipal courts and tribunals have been analysed. The research findings suggest that equity has become the pivotal point for bridging any gaps between contestants views or principles. The role of equity has proven its capacity to prevent conflicts in such a way that every interest is addressed with a rational resolution of the problems that lead to conflict. In order to fill the chasm between poor states and the developed states, to balance and preserve the interests of present and future generations, to carry out development without adversely damaging the environment, and to accommodate all interests in a shared resource, equity has remained a central issue. 10 Equity has given flexibility and strength to decision-makers in harmonising the divergent interests of disputant parties. However, it is only a tool; its application requires the utmost measure of fairness with a profusion of liberal attitude and sound discretion. The political use of equity in human rights, environment and sustainable development issues must be differentiated from the legal use of equity. The legal use of equity in IWL has been developed by the Supreme Court of the United States and some other European states in the twentieth century in the resolution of conflicts involving the allocation and sharing of water between federal states and provinces.11 The PCIJ and the ICJ have contributed immensely to its application and development in their decisions for sharing and delimiting the Continental Shelf and disputed issues arising over it. The LOSC 1982 and the UNCIW have codified equity as a rule of customary international law. Furthermore, resolution of both existing and future conflicts are also expected to be resolved by the application of equity. In fact, equitable utilisation has become 10 11 D. French, “International Environmental Law and the Achievement of Intragenerational Equity” (2001) in 31 ELR, pp. 10469-10485. Demonstrated in Chapter two. 282 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia the cornerstone of resolution of the issues on shared natural resources, including shared watercourses. 12 The tremendous success in new technological innovations has the potential to help avert conflicts. Examples are, re-use of water,13 distillation technology, and technologies to deliver water over great distances. Some ambitious propositions that can be cited in this context are: Turkey’s plan to deliver waters to the whole Middle East, cloud shedding and unnatural precipitation programmes as undertaken presently in the US and Israel, potential water delivery, and use of Antarctica's and also the high Himalaya's waters.14 Chapter four dealt with the issues of Nepal and regional cooperation in south Asia. It assessed the problems and prospects, and suggested measures to solve problems in such a way that every nation can win and no one loses. 15 A historical perspective on bilateral relations, and water relations in particular have been given and evaluated in the light of present challenges. The potential benefits to Nepal, India, Bangladesh and Bhutan in bilateral and regional perspectives are very promising. However, the reality and the existing framework of co-operation is far from satisfactory.16 There are opportunities for numerous trade-offs amongst these nations, whereby the misery of poverty could be overcome by prosperity within the 12 13 14 15 16 S. C. McCaffrey and M. Sinzela, “The United Nations Convention on International Watercourses” (1998) 92 AJIL, p. 106. Singapore is planning to substitute at least 2% of imported water by recycling waste water by the year 2004, www.internationalwaterlaw.org. R. Clarke, Water: The International Crisis, London: Earthscan Pub., 1991, p.110. B. Subba, Himalayan Waters, Kathmandu: Panos South Asia, 2001, p 225; also see B. G. Vershese, “Regional Cooperation for Optimal Basin Development” in B. G. Verghese & R. R. Iyer (eds) Harnessing the Eastern Himalayan Rivers: Regional Cooperation in South Asia, New Delhi: Konark Pub., 1994, pp. 263-280. S. D. Muni, India and Nepal: A Changing Relationships, New Delhi: Konark Pub., 1996, pp. 161-176. Conclusions and Recummendations / 283 framework of the concept of, ‘dependence within interdependence’. 17 Past experiences have been marred by confrontation rather than improved by meaningful co-operation. Such attitudes, however, appear to be changing, most recently in the Nile basin 18 and south Asia. 19 It is essential to take advantage of such a positive situation. 20 As a result of past relations shrouded by the miasma of negative attitudes of suspicion, each state is cautious and doubtful of the other. 21 This research has indicated the implications of co-operation. For its achievement, however, a radical change in working as well as in thinking is urgently required and the leaders of this region must undertake radical change with charismatic leadership.22 Chapter five has demonstrated the legal issues involved in the River-Linking Project of India, its relevance to get rid of recurrence flood, drought and famine, potential advantage from the project to India and her neighbours and the role of regional cooperation. The best way to tackle the poverty in south Asia has been is depend how states can cooperate with others, understand other sensivity and how law help them to implement this huge project. 6.3 Implications of Water Scarcity The alarming increase of the world’s population poses a threat to the maintenance of the availability and distribution of these 17 18 19 20 21 22 B. C. Upreti, Politics of Himalayan River Waters, New Delhi: Nirala Pub., 1993, pp. 158-178. Supra note 9, p. 159. The Power Purchase agreement on west the Seti project and the river Linking Project are evidence of it. S. P. Subedi, “The Hydro Politics of South Asia: the Conclusion of the Mahakali and Ganges River Treaties” (1999) 93 AJIL, p. 962. B. Crow, A. Lindquist & D. Wilson, Sharing the Ganges: the Politics and Technology of River Development, New Delhi: Sage Pub, 1995, p. 222. Supra note 4, p. 393. 284 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia precious water resources: withdrawals are expected to rise by 31% by 2020 and groundwater resources are being replenished only at a rate of between 0.1% and 0.5%. 23 There are predictions that the next war will be fought over water, if the international community does not work hard in unison by promptly and prudently taking into account the interests of all, equally. 24 Such a gloomy picture presents either a recipe for conflict or an incentive to co-operation. However, the key to regional as well as bilateral cooperation largely depends on how India, as a regional power willing to be a member of Security Council of the United Nations, 25 reconciles its views and aspirations in addressing the similar interests of its neighbours.26 Moreover, India’s traditional view of benefiting at another's expense, as alleged, must be changed into the concept of good neighbourliness, a cooperative attitude, and incorporate equitable sharing of shared resources. The same attitude must be adopted by Nepal and other neighbours. The positive aspects of the past treaties must also be recalled27 Conclusions and Recummendations / 285 instead of one way criticism and over-politicising.28 Nepal must convince and persuade its over-bearing neighbour to promote and preserve the interests of both countries, and India must stop damming the rivers on the Indo-Nepal border and causing the upstream states significant harm. If there is the political will among the south Asian nations and the required co-operation from the international community in terms of finance, technology and skill, the other modes of co-operation are within the reach of south Asia. 29 The Mekong Basin and Southern African states have adopted the concept of regional grids to trade off hydroelectricity for the investment of multilateral agencies. Thailand has not only guaranteed the purchase of Lao’s hydroelectricity but also provided a sovereign guarantee to the consortium of international banks and other lending agencies to allow the project to proceed. 30 There are several models in the bilateral and multinational spheres as indicated in Chapter two, any of which could be followed. 28 23 24 25 25 26 27 Staff, “Ecological Decline far worse than official estimates”, The Guardian 26 August 2002, p. 4, also see United Nations, Comprehensive Assessment of Freshwater Resources of the World, 1997, Geneva: UN Pub. Supra note 7. A Vice President of the World Bank, Ismail Serageldin, who thought water a catalyst for peace, predicted in 1995 that ‘the wars in the next century will be over water.’ C. D. Mass, “South Asia: Drawn Between Cooperation and Conflict” in E. Gonsalves & N. Jetly (eds), The Dynamics of south Asia: Regional Cooperation and SAARC, New Delhi: Sage Pub., 1999, p. 67. C. D. Mass, “South Asia: Drawn Between Cooperation and Conflict” in E. Gonsalves & N. Jetly (eds), The Dynamics of south Asia: Regional Cooperation and SAARC, New Delhi: Sage Pub., 1999, p. 67. S. P. Subedi, “Indo-Nepal Relations: The Cause of Conflict and Their Resolution” in S. K. Mitra & D. Rothermund (eds), Legitimacy and Conflict in South Asia, New Delhi: Manohar, 1997, p. 240. A. Mukarij, “Is Destabilization the Name of the Game” in A. Sen (ed) India’s Neighbours: Problems and Prospects, New Delhi: Har-Anand, 2001, p. 115. 29 30 D. Gyawali, Water in Nepal, Kathmandu: Himal Books, 2001, pp. 5365: The Nepalese Parliament ratified the Mahakali treaty, however, it then passed a stricture (by both Houses of Parliament). breaching the Treaty’s provision, and sought incorporation of the terms of the strictures into the Detail Project Report, which obviously prevents progress in executing the Treaty. M. R. Josse, “The Case for New Thinking” (1994) in 4 Water Nepal, p. 260: Then British PM James Callaghan and then US President Jimmy Carter were quoted as saying that their nations were eager to help in utilising Himalayan water resources. P. Chomchai, “Management of Transboundary Water Resources: A Case Study of the Mekong” in M. I. Glassner (ed), The United Nations at Work, Westport, CT: Praeger, 1998, pp. 245-255; also see www.internationalwaterlaw.org: Laos has signed a deal with a consortium to build and operate the Nan Theun Project (1,070 MW hydroelectric project) in which Thailand is the sole buyer. The ADB said Laos earned $ 112 million from electricity exports in 2000, one third of the country’s total exports and its biggest export item. Also see South African Power Pool, common electricity for 14 African states www.eia.doe.gov/emev/cabs/sadc.html. 286 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia 6.4 Changing Perspectives There are some more positive indications which suggest that improved attitudes are being developed in the area of cooperation. The recently proposed Arun III, Lower Arun and Upper Arun projects, altogether 1,050 MW, are being considered for implementation through bilateral arrangement, with the involvement of public power utilities and private institutions in India and Nepal. The ADB which has been involved as a facilitator, had expressed its preparedness to provide the necessary amount of loan money, not only to carry out the feasibility studies but also to implement the project.31 Furthermore, the West Seti export purpose hydroelectric project, which is being planned for development by the Australian Snowy Mountain Electric Company (SMEC), has been permitted to have an MOU with Power Trading Corporation (PTC), the Indian Government’s Power Purchasing Company. Successful negotiations to obtain a power purchase agreement have been recently concluded. It is expected that after its success, a new cooperative dimension in Indo-Nepal water resources relations will be opened. 32 As expected the SMEC and PTC has struck a power purchase agreement at US$ Cents 4.865 per unit rate and the project is going to be started from this year. 33 Similar positive development expected to occur between India and Bangladesh as well. Apart from this, SAREE, SAGQ, SASEC and other institutions working for expanded regional cooperation are emerging. The allegation that everything hinges on the Indian attitude is 31 32 33 Staff, “ADB co-operation on water projects”, The Space Time Daily, 18 September, 2002, quoted the country Director of the ADB stating its readiness to provide any type of co-operation to implement these projects. www.internationalwaterlaw.org ‘SMEC strikes a deal with Indian government’. Staff, “SMEC concluded an agreement with Power Trading Corporation of India.” Kantipur (in Nepali)10 December 2003. Conclusions and Recummendations / 287 commonly made by all the small and vulnerable nations of south Asia. However, in 1996, Nepal and Bangladesh managed to conclude separate treaties with India, thereby removing their long entertained complaints and grievances over the Mahakali and the Ganges rivers respectively. 34 In the case of Nepal, however, the positive circumstance created by the Mahakali treaty is not being reaped because of non-implementation of the project due to differing views on how to implement the treaty regime. Other nations are ready for utilising this resource, if India were ready to address its neighbour's interests in a reasonable and equitable manner.35 It is worth mentioning that in the 19th century, strong countries wanted weak neighbours they could dominate. In the 21st century, strong countries will benefit from neighbours who are prosperous and democratic. Troubled neighbours export problems whereas healthy neighbours promote the region's vitality, growth and peace. 36 Additionally, in a U-turn in its policy on water sharing issues, India is contemplating a grandiose project linking 37 rivers, constructing 27 big dams and diverting 141,288 million cubic metres of water through a network of 4,777 km of canals. The River Linking Project will cost Rs. 560,000 crore. In this project, it is hoped that the riparian consent and co-operation of Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will be sought and every interest heeded so that past bitternesses will be eliminated.37 If the project were to be executed in this manner, it is likely that the mistrust and bitterness of the past would be reversed, as every complaint would be accommodated. The grievances suffered by the smaller states for so long could be resolved 34 35 36 37 Supra note 20, p. 958, also see, S. M. A. Salman and K. Uprety, “Hydro-Politics in South Asia: A Comparative Analysis of the Mahakali and Ganges Treaties” (1999), 39 NRJ, pp. 333-335. Supra note 15, pp. 188-195. R. B. Zoellick, “NAFTA: A Successful Model of North South Relations” in www. usembassy-mexico.gov/sbfnafta. S. Aiyar, “Changing the Course” (2003) in XXVII India Today, January 20, pp. 28-32. 288 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia forever, only if their interests were accommodated in such a grandiose enterprise. 6.5 Implications and Future Research In this section, I will consider the implications of this study for future scholarship in two areas, poverty reduction and the MDG. Efforts of the international community were initiated in 1972 in Stockholm, further strengthened in Rio de Janeiro through the Earth Summit in 1992, and WSSD, signifying the importance of freshwater not as a separate issue but as an integrated part of the whole environment, and the commitment of the world to it.38 The issue of water is explicitly related to the human rights of people, without which life cannot be imagined.39 These rights are safeguarded by the provisions of Article 10 of the 1997 UNCIW, stating that priority will be provided for “vital human needs.” 40 Moreover, the development of renewable energy for reducing global warming is on the agenda for the international community.41 MDG’s and the recent WSSD have set a target of halving the number of people presently deprived of potable water, proper sanitation and clean energy from two billion to one billon by the year 2015. In context of the statement that 38 39 40 41 D. Harrison, “America bows to summit demand on sanitation for the world’s poor” The Daily Telegraph, 3 p. 4, September 2002. The UK’s Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett is quoted as saying that the WSSD has been largely successful and illustrated the significance of ‘multilaterism’. S. McCaffrey, “A Human Right to Water: Domestic and International Implications” (1992) 5 GIELR, pp. 1-23. UNCIW, 36 ILM (1997), p. 722. J. Vidal & P. Brown, “Meeting was sell out” The Guardian, 4 September 2002, pp. 1-3, 2002. It is massive blow for the renewable energy plan. Main achievements were setting the target of halving the number without basic sanitation and drinking water by 2015, and also halving the 1.2 billion who live on less than $1 a day. Conclusions and Recummendations / 289 hydropower as a source of clean energy will be encouraged, unfortunately, no timetable is provided. 42 As maintained by Gerhard Schroder, the German Chancellor, global warming is no longer a matter for scepticism, it has become a reality. He further argues that there can be no global security without an agenda for global equity and that developing countries require the co-operation of developed nations to carry out ambitious energy projects.43 To eliminate poverty in the least developed and geographically handicapped nations, the international community should change existing policies and programmes so as to provide special treatment and concessions on investment, trade, environmental obligations and financial assistance. Poverty has been identified as a cause of civil war and terrorism, and is a general hindrance to world peace and prosperity. For example, in Nepal the seven year Maoist insurgency has led to the deaths of over 9,000 people and the loss of billions of rupees worth of property. 44 Thabo Mbaki, the South African President, has rightly suggested at the (WSSD) in Johannesburg) that until the gap between the haves and have-nots is filled, the fuelling of global terrorism will continue.45 World poverty including that of south Asia must be eradicated by utilising these immense water resources. In this effort, the rich states must favour the weaker states in order to eradicate the hardship of poverty, pursuant to the notion of equity. In the context of India and 42 43 44 45 P. Brown & J. Vidal, “Summiteers plant their flags in the foot hills.” p. 13, The Guardian, 4 September 2002. P. Brown, “The US must play its part” p. 18, The Guardian August 30, 2002. On human rights implications of Nepal see “Human Rights and Security” (14 February 2000) at www.amnesty.org. P. Brown & J. Vidal, ‘End seas of poverty’, The Guardian, 27 August 2002, p. 3. John Pronk, Envoy of UN Secretary General to the WSSD is quoted as saying that the poverty of developing countries should be addressed by the help of developed states. 290 / International Watercourses Law and Its Application in South Asia Nepal, the former, being better off than the latter, should give priority to the development of it less developed neighbour, Nepal. This is also a finding of this research. A world order characterised by equitable development and provision of services to the people of developing nations like those enjoyed by the people of the developed nations is indispensable to keeping the peace, harmony, and welfare of this planet. Poverty has been blamed for the Maoist uprising. Similar problems exist across other parts of south Asia. Thus, in order to establish an equitable society in these countries, broadening the scope of the MDG’s, is urgently required. The issue of clean energy such as hydro-energy and the supply of potable water and sanitation service are linked with the freshwater issue. Nepal requires cooperation without conditions (imposed as riparian consent) from western governments and multilateral institutions. These issues require further research. The other impediment for Nepal, regarding the utilisation of its resources, is the lack of its ability to generate power at competitive prices. 46 The private sector should be encouraged to supplement the public sector so that cheap energy generation and competitive marketing can be undertaken. 47 Enhanced technology, competitive energy prices (as required and set by the market) and maximisation of efficiency are essential to ensure competitiveness. Alternative markets such as China and Bangladesh need to be explored so that India is not the sole 46 47 Supra note 28, p. 30: Government-developed hydropower in Nepal has cost an average of $ 2800/kw while private generation costs are $ 1000/kw; see S. Rana, “Don’t Blame Private Power Producers” in (2002) September, 111 Nepali Times; also see M. Pradhan & S. B. Pun, “Private Sector Participation in the Power Sector Lesson Learnt/Unlearnt so far” 14-20 (2003) February, in 22 Spotlight, p. 5.; also note “Chilime begins production” in The Kathmandu Post 26 August 2003. S. B. Pun, “The Evolving Role of Public and Private Institutions in the Nepalese Power Sector” in (1999) WECS Annual Report, pp. 38-49. Conclusions and Recummendations / 291 market. The provision of modern technology to provide quick and dependable energy is related to the water resources available in south Asia. This study shows that application of the principle of equity and the rule of ‘reasonable and equitable utilisation’ will help unravel the intricate and complex problems associated with the harnessing and sharing of Himalayan waters. As stated in Chapter three, the principle of equity has the ability to reconcile interests of all states by considering socio-economic and other relevant factors. The norms associated with it will help maximise the benefits to all the nations concerned. Such a mindset on the part of the regional and sub-regional partners would ensure justice and prosperity for not only Nepal but the whole of south Asia.