Draft
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN LITHUANIA:
DO WE MOVE TO SUSTAINABILITY?
Romualdas Juknys
Vytautas Magnus University, Environmental department
Introduction
At the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development elimination of
unsustainable production and consumption was considered as one of the most important
objectives of sustainable development (WSSD, Plan of implementation, 2002). Already in
Brundtland commission report (Our common future,1987) was stressed out, that development
should be far less material intensive and more economically and environmentally efficient.
Serious attention to sustainable production and consumption was paid in the main Rio World
Summit documents. Principle eight of Rio Declaration defines, that “to achieve sustainable
development and a higher quality of life for all people, States should reduce and eliminate
unsustainable patterns of production and consumption…”. In Agenda 21 unsustainable
patterns of consumption and production were considered as major cause of the continued
deterioration of the global environment and all countries were asked to develop domestic
policy framework to encourage a shift to more sustainable patterns of production and
consumption.
As it was summarized by J. Barber (2003), a number of international conferences,
workshops, reports and other activities were organized to implement recommendations made
in Agenda 21. The main consensus was achieved, that policy strategies should aim at
improved efficiency in consumption of energy and other resources. Education, ecolabelling,
subsidy and tax reform, public participation in policy making are considered as an important
features of the successful implementation of more efficient production and consumption
patterns.
However, as it was noted in the UN report at the Johannesburg summit, despite the
serious achievements throughout the decade after Rio, progress towards the goals established
in Agenda 21 has been much slower than anticipated and in some respects situation is worse
than 10 years ago. Gap in implementation was considered as most urgent problem (UNSD,
2002). This gap is especially obvious in the lack of major changes in production and
consumption efficiency. Absence in concrete, measurable objectives and timetables for their
1
implementation, appropriate quantitative indicators to follow the progress, could be
considered as an important obstacles to achieve an essential progress towards more
sustainable production and consumption.
Analysing different aspects of sustainable development, two categories of countries are
usually distinguished – developed countries and developing countries. However, after the
former Soviet Union collapsed and all Soviet block was broken down, a third group of
countries with especially specific features of their development appeared. Though these
countries of so called transition economies occupy a huge area from the Atlantic to the Pacific
ocean, too little attention is being paid to the analysis of their development and patterns of
production and consumption. Changes in political system and transition from the centralized
to a market economy caused an inevitable temporary economy and social decline (National
report of Lithuania, 2002; Latvian national report, 2002; National strategy of Moldova,
2002).
Along with the economic decline, not only the production volumes decreased several
times, but the consumption of the natural resources and environmental pollution as well. Such
a great decrease in the consumption of natural resources and environmental pollution is, no
doubt, a very positive phenomenon from the point of sustainable development. However,
taking into consideration the fact that these favourable to the environment changes took place
mostly not because of the implementation of special environmental protection measures, but
because of transformational economic decline, these changes cannot be regarded so
unambiguously.
Since the middle of the past decade the economy in the most countries of transition
economy has started to recover. More rapid positive economic changes were taking place in
the countries that have chosen the way of fast reforms, so-called “shock therapy” and most of
these countries just joined European Union. Analyzing possibilities of development of newly
independent countries, it is necessary to take into account that these countries inherited
extremely ineffective and resources consuming economy. On other hand they inherited
sufficiently high level of people education, rather well developed, thought not very modern,
energy supply and communication infrastructure (National report of Lithuania, 2002;
Miskinis, 2003). This human and economic potential creates good preconditions for rather
fast changes of production and consumption patterns to more sustainable way.
The main trends in all three sectors of sustainable development – economy,
environment and society are analysed in the first section of this presentation. Second section
of the presentation is dedicated to the analysis of changes in efficiency of production and
2
consumption in the main branches of Lithuanian economy. The general provisions of
Lithuanian strategy on sustainable development with special attention to main targets for
elimination unsustainable production and consumption are presented in the last section of
presentation.
1. The main trends in the economy, environment and society
Extremely large scale and rapid pace of on-going changes is a characteristic feature of
all newly independent states. If the changes of the last decade in economy, consumption of
natural resources, state of environment and social development are measured by per cent or
tens of percent in the the developed and developing countries, such changes are measured by
several times or even by tens of times in the countries with economies in transition. The main
economic, environmental and social changes in Lithuania during 1991-2002 years are
analyzed futher.
1.1 Economic changes
The period after reestablishment of independence was especially complicated and
difficult regarding to economic development of Lithuania, as well as other newly independent
countries. The country’s economy developed in the conditions of intersection of two
economic systems: a centrally governed system and the system of a free market. Opinion of
the economists and politicians from different countries and international organizations on the
nature of the reform and particularly on its optimal pace of them was very different. In fact
two ways were proposed: way of a slow evolution seeking to adapt the institutions of
centralised economy to market economy conditions and the other one was the way of rapid
reforms or so-called “shock therapy”. Lithuania, like other Baltic States and many countries
of the former Soviet block, chose the way of rapid reforms. Today, from more than 10 years
perspective it is absolutely obvious that “shock therapy” was difficult but much more
effective than the way of slow institutional reforms. As it was mentioned, countries which
have chosen this more risky way made much more rapid progress in different sectors of their
development and most of these countries already joined European Union.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - the most universal indicator generalising the
development of the country’s economy - shows the pace of the economic development, and
possibilities in the rise of wellbeing of the society. In Lithuania, like in all other countries of
transition economy, GDP was on the rapid decrease after drastic changes in political and
3
economic systems. After basic possibilities for market economy have been created, a certain
period of time was necessary to adopt new requirements and to make necessary changes,
allowing making efficient use of these possibilities.
60
59
GDP, LTL billions
50
46,6
39,1
40
38,1
35,3 36,4
40,8
43,5
43
44,7
47,6
50,8
30
20
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Fig. 1.1 Changes in general GDP, 1991-2002
As seen from Fig 1.1, the deepest depression in economy according to created GDP
was achieved in 1994, and it accounted for 59.6% of the level at 1991. The year 1995 is
regarded as the turning point in the Lithuanian economy. Then the increase in GDP of 3.3
percent was registered for the first time after the re-establishment of the independence. This
trend remained unchanged during the following three years when the increase in GDP
accounted for 4.7% in 1996, 7.3% in 1997 and 7.3% in 1998, respectively. The 1998
economic crisis in Russia had a significant negative, fortunately very short term impact on a
development of Lithuania’s economy. Due to this crisis, decrease on a 3.9% of GDP was
registered in 1999.
From 2000 accelerating growth in GDP has started and almost 7% increase was
achieved in 2002. According to preliminary evaluations almost 9% increase in GDP was
registered in 2003, and Lithuania became one of the fastest growing economies in the Europe.
However, when comparing this indicator to the average of EU countries, it still approximately
three times lower according to estimates of purchasing power parity.
The industrial sector was developed relatively well in Lithuania and about 40% of
GDP were created by industrial enterprises before the re-establishment of independence.
Since that sector was most closely integrated into overall economy of the former Soviet
Union, including military industry, it was the sector that suffered the most serious decline at
the beginning of transition period. Relative changes in production volumes in the industrial
4
sector are presented in Fig.1.2. The Figure shows that industry experienced the sharpest
decline at the beginning of the transition period and reached the lowest point in 1994 when
production in the industrial sector decreased by nearly three times as compared with 1991.
From 1995 the industrial sector started gradually to recover and despite of repeated
depression in 1999 in 2000 amount of industrial production has increased by nearly 11%, as
compared to 1999. Nearly 20% increase in industrial production was achieved in 2001,
however amount of industrial production in this year has reached only half of that to compare
Industrial index, percent
with 1991. About 10% decrease in industrial production was registered in 2002.
100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
64,7
51,6
50,9
35,9
36,1
37,2
40,2
43,6
40,6
44,3
47,3
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Fig.1.2 Changes in industrial production (1991=100%)
Structure of manufacturing industry was changing along with the recovery of
industrial sector and industry based on high technologies and local resources is growing most.
However, according to the level of industrial technologies, the situation in Lithuanian
industry is not satisfactory enough. Production based on high technologies accounts for about
15% of total industrial production, whereas this indicator in most EU countries amounts to
20-25%.
Agriculture suffered cardinal changes after reestablishment of independence. With
the system of collective farms falling down and private farms rapidly forming, not only
agricultural production but also the entire life of the rural population has changed in essence.
Area of crop lands was reduced
approximately by 20% during transition period. It is
expected that with the country’s economy recovering, the total area of crops will increase
insignificantly and it is planned to plant forests in a large part of barren unproductive lands.
Agricultural production and the structure of production changed rather significantly during
this period. Changes in harvest of the main crops during 1991-2002 year period are presented
in Figure1.3.
5
Winter and spring cereals are the main agricultural crops in Lithuania. Data presented in
Figure 1.3
show that the total harvest at the beginning of the transitional period was
gradually on the decrease. In 1995 it accounted for only 60% of the harvest in 1990.
However, in 1996 cereal harvest started to increase and during last years it consist about 80 %
to compare with harvest in 1990. During the recent years average cereal yield amounts to 3
tons per hectare and traditionally it is nearly twice less than the average cereal yield in the
European Union countries. This comparatively low cereal yield is determined by the fact that
Lithuanian farmers usually grow mainly local cereal species and use relatively little fertilisers
and pesticides. Production of other main crops – potatoes, sugar beet and vegetables
approximately equals to that of 1990 during last years.
160
140
Percent
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
Cereals
1994
1995
Potatoes
1996
1997
1998
Sugar beet
1999
2000
2001
2002
Vegetables
Fig. 1.3 Changes in production of the main agricultural crops (1990 = 100%)
Areas of rape have increased considerably (7.5 times) during last decade. This has
been determined by a wider use of rape not only for food and perfumery industry but also for
the production of bio-fuel. In summing up the trends in the development of plant production,
the conclusion should be drawn that the agricultural sector has recovered quite rapidly after
the shock of the reforms. Since 1995-1996 it has grown rather rapidly and harvest of most
agricultural crops already has reached or even exceeded level of 1990.
Animal production decreased rapidly in the first half of the transitional period. In
1994, as compared with 1990, only about 40% of meat, 55% of milk, and 60% of eggs were
produced. However, contrary to the plant production sector, so far very slow increasing trends
in the animal production have been observed. Production of eggs grew up to 72 %, and
production of milk up to 57% to compare with 1990. However production of meat is on the
further decrease and in 2002 it consisted only about one third of that in 1990. It is necessary
to take into account that during the years of the collective-farm regime, seeking to provide the
6
deficit market of the former Soviet Union with animal products, Lithuanian agriculture was
thrown off balance. The animal production sector was overdeveloped and for the most part
was provided with imported rather than local fodder.
Rather positive changes took place in forestry sector during last ten years despite of
almost two times increased areas of clear cuttings (Fig. 1.4),. Area of forests has increased by
3.5% up to 2045 thou. ha. Current forest coverage in Lithuania consist 31.1%. Growing stock
of Lithuanian forests from 1993 to 2003 has increased by 14.3% and consist 383 mln. cubic
meters.
16
15,3
14
12,4
Thou.ha
12
12,2
10,7
11,5
12,4
13
10
8
8,1
7
7,8
7,4
1993
1994
6
4
2
0
1991
1992
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Fig.1.4 Changes in area of annual clear cuttings
The increase in the forest productivity is important not only from the economic but also
from the ecological point of view as one of the factors stimulating the sink of carbon dioxide
and reducing the input to global climate changes. In the meantime the protection of biological
diversity quite often determines some decrease in the productivity of forest ecosystems.
Therefore one of the main objectives of the present-day forestry - to increase the productivity
of forests by preserving their biological diversity. Moreover, it is important to develop social
functions of forests by raising possibilities for wider use of forests for recreational and
educational purposes, solving the employment problem of local people.
Transport sector suffered the least transformational decline during the transition period.
Therefore, during the period under study the share of the GDP created in this sector increased
from 8 percent in 1991 to 13 percent in 2002. Taking into account such a rapid, as compared
to other economy sectors, development of transport sector this
sector became most
problematic from the point of sustainability.
7
The number of vehicles increased especially rapidly during that period – in 1991 there
were 128 cars per 1000 population and in 2002 this figure stood at 316. More detailed data on
changes in the number of different types of vehicles during the period from 1991 to 2002 are
presented in Fig.1.5. Number of trucks has increased by 12% and number buses almost did
not change during this period. A rapid growth in the number of vehicles really took place
mostly because of the rapid increase in the number of cars.
Number of vehicles
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Buses
Trucks
Cars
Fig. 1.5 Changes in number of vehicles
The number of railway means of transportation decreased nearly by one-fourth during
that period. Since emissions of railway transport to carry the same quantity of passengers or
cargo are considerably smaller comparing to the emissions of road transport, this trend should
be assessed negatively from the point of sustainability.
Essential reduction in public transport is other essential drawback of transport
development during transition period in Lithuania. Passenger traffic by public transport has
decreased about three times from 1991 up to 2002. Meanwhile passenger traffic by rail
transport has decreased even 5 times.
After the re-establishment of independence of Lithuania, the structure of the car fleet
has changed notably. In 1990 nearly all the cars were produced in the former Soviet Union. A
present-day car fleet consists mainly of cars from Western Europe and Japan. However, little
as 2 per cent of all cars were produced less than five years ago, whereas 85% of cars are more
than 10 years old. The average age of cars produced in Western countries is over 13 years.
Cars made in the East are even older - their average age amounts to 18 years and it creates
additional environmental problems.
8
1.2 Environmental quality
Data on environmental status and changes during 1991-2002 period are presented in
this section.
Air pollution has decreased substantially as a consequence of an economy decline and
modernization after re-establishing of independence. The data on changes in total emissions
of the main pollutants (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, non-methane
volatile organic compounds and solid particles) into the air from stationary (industry and
energy production) and mobile sources are presented in Fig. 1.6.
700
Thou. tons
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Stationary sources
Mobile sources
Fig. 1.6 Changes in emissions of pollutants from stationary and mobile sources.
It is seen that throughout the analysed period total emissions of the main pollutants
decreased from 1.1 million tons to 260 thousand tons, e.i. almost 4 times. The data presented
also show that trends of emissions from stationary (industry, the energy sector) and mobile
(vehicles) sources of pollution are rather different. During this period emission from
stationary sources was on the permanent decrease and during the twelve years period
emissions from stationary sources decreased by 4.5 times. Meanwhile emissions from mobile
sources decreased almost twice during first two years of transition period and stood on the
same level up to 1998. Along with more fast renovation of road transport fleet and more wide
use of environment friendly fuel (liquid gas) very fast reduction of emissions was registered
in 1999-2001. Final estimation for 1991-2002 period would be 3.6 times reduction of
emissions from mobile sources.
Emissions of the main green house gas carbon dioxide decreased from 45 to 15
million tons, that is, as much as three times during investigated period. Though these changes
were mainly determined by a transformational decline in economy, a lot has been done in
Lithuania to implement the requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on
9
Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Many buildings have been renovated seeking to use
the supplied heat more economically and rather essential part of small boiler-rooms have been
refurbished and fossil organic fuel has been substituted by bio-fuel (timber, straw).
After emissions of pollutants into the air had decreased, the quality of air in
Lithuanian cities was improved considerably during this period. Average concentrations of
nitrogen dioxide varied from 25-30 g/m3 (Klaipeda, Panevezys, Jonava) to 55-65 g/m3
(Kaunas, Siauliai) in 1991, they did not exceed 30 g/m3 in most of the towns in 2002. Due to
centralised heating systems, urban air in Lithuania contained small concentrations of sulphur
dioxide. The concentrations decreased even more during the period under study, and its
average annual concentrations in most Lithuanian towns do not exceed 2 -3 g/m3.
The concentration of solid particles also decreased considerably in Lithuanian towns
during that period. If the concentration of solid particles in nearly all Lithuanian towns quite
often exceeded maximum allowable concentrations (150 g/m3), and in Kaunas and Siauliai
the average concentrations of solid particles amounted to almost 300 g/m3 in 1991, the
average annual concentrations of solid particles nowhere do not exceeded 100 g/m3 in 2002.
Since 1996, after JSC “Mažeikų nafta” started producing only unleaded gasoline, and
since 1998, after gasoline containing lead admixtures was prohibited in Lithuania, lead
concentrations in urban air have also decreased significantly and do not exceed 0.01g/m3.
Water pollution has been reduced considerably during transition period as well.
Amount of wastewater during this period decreased several times (Fig. 1.7). The data
presented in this figure show that about 300 million cubic meters of polluted wastewater was
formed in Lithuania in 1991. The amount of wastewater was continuously on the decrease
and in the year 2000 its total amount constituted about 160 million cubic meters, that is
almost two times less than in 1991. However, some increase in amount of waste water along
with recovery of economy was recorded during last two years.
During this period not only the total amount of wastewater but also the level of its
treatment changed significantly (Fig. 1.8). If over 27% of the total amount of wastewater
were discharged into the surface water bodies consisted untreated wastewater, over 50%insufficiently treated waste water and only 22% - waste water treated up to the established
standards in 1991, the amount of untreated wastewater accounted for as little as 12% and that
of waste water treated up to the established standards accounted for over 60 per cent in 2000.
10
400
393
366
350
345
336
304
mln.cub. m
300
252
250
233
217
200
182
168
1999
2000
232
226
2001
2002
150
100
50
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 1997
1998
Fig.1.7 Changes in amount of waste water
The quality of wastewater treatment started to improve considerably from 1996 when
Vilnius biological water treatment facilities were run and water treatment facilities in some
smaller towns were reconstructed or constructed. The amount of untreated wastewater
decreased several times after Kaunas mechanical water treatment facilities started to operate
in 1999.
1990
22%
1999
12%
27%
28%
60%
51%
Utreated
Partially treated
Treated to standarts
Utreated
Partially treated
Treated to standarts
Fig. 1.8 Structure of polluted wastewater by the level of treatment
Wastewater treatment standards have been changed since 2000, and treatment quality
has begun to be assessed not only by organic pollution (BOD) but also by the amount of
nitrogen and phosphorus. The part of wastewater treated up to the established standards has
increased, and these data cannot be compared with the data of the previous years.
The data presented in Table 1 show that due to improved treatment of waste water the
amount of pollutants discharged into the surface water bodies decreased much more
significantly than the total amount of wastewater. Pollution of surface water bodies with
organic and suspended matter during last decade was reduced by more than seven times, with
11
nitrogen and phosphorus over three times, with oil products almost five times, and with
heavy metals – by as much as seven times.
Table 1
Changes in amount of pollutants discharged into surface water bodies (tons per year)
Year
Organic
Suspended
Total
Total
Oil
Iron
Heavy
matter
solids
nitrogen phosphor products
metals
(BOD7)
us
1991
36200
39000
390
177
98
1992
31900
36900
10600
1438
340
172
109
1993
27920
30430
10208
1534
270
101
97
1994
34500
38500
10773
1502
280
166
93
1995
21000
26000
7663
1183
220
71
59
1996
16600
17900
6446
960
160
30
48
1997
15000
15000
5401
879
150
10
46
1998
13000
14000
4545
795
130
4.4
36
1999
10000
9000
3923
750
100
2.9
24
2000
7000
7000
3671
645
60
1.9
29
2001
7000
6000
3634
550
60
1.8
20
2002
5100
5200
3202
440
80
1.9
14
Red.
7.1
7.5
3.3
3.2
4.9
9.3
7.0
factor
Lithuanian rivers are characterised by a high degree of pollution with organic matter
and nutrients. According to water quality classification based on pollution with organic matter
(BOD), the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus as well as bacteriological pollution
(Colibacillus index), about 10% of Lithuanian rivers are attributed to relatively clean rivers
(Quality Class I-II), about 70% – to rivers polluted to an average degree (Quality Class IIIIV) and about 20% – to heavy polluted rivers (Class V-VI). However, even after discharges
of pollutants had decreased several times (Table 1), the quality of water in rivers changed
insignificantly during the past decade. Partly this can be accounted for by secondary pollution
of rivers from bottom sediments, decomposition of plant biomass, and non-point agricultural
pollution.
In assessing quality of agricultural soils is necessary to take into consideration
absolutely different farming conditions prevailed before the re-establishment of independence
of Lithuania and after it has been re-established. During these periods use of fertilisers and
pesticides as well as soil liming differes significantly. 160-200 thousand hectares of acid soils
were annually limed in Lithuania in 1965-1990, however beginning with the middle of 1990
liming was stopped at all. Use of pesticides and mineral fertilisers has decreased several times
since 1990, and favourable conditions for developing organic farming have formed.
12
Decreased volumes of liming and use of pesticides as well as mineral fertilisers had a
considerable effect on the change in agrochemical properties of Lithuanian soil and the level
of its pollution.
Data of soil monitoring show that the acidity of deacidificated soils started to restore
gradually after its regular liming was terminated. Despite deposition of acid compounds
decreased considerably during the past decade, though they contribute to soil acidification to
a certain extent. Soils of western Lithuania containing the largest areas of relatively acid soils
prior to liming are acidified to the greatest extent. During past decade the percentage of
relatively acid soils increased on average by 10.9% in of western Lithuania and this figure
was essentially lower in Eastern (2.2%) and Central (1.3%) Lithuania.
Use of pesticides decreased several times in Lithuania, and currently about half a
kilogram of them is used per hectare of arable land. Decomposition of modern pesticides is
very fast, therefore the danger of polluting the environment has decreased considerably.
However, some earlier used chlorine organic pesticides were extremely harmful to warmblooded animals, and their residuals did not decompose for a long time.
According to the 1989-1991 research data, of all the samples analysed, DDD and
DDT residuals in soil accounted for 13.3%, alpha () hexachlorane and DDE – for 45.9 %,
and gamma()hexachlorane – for 43,9 %. However studies carried out in 1990-2001 showed
that their quantities are on the decrease. For example, the quantity of alpha () hexachlorane,
as compared with that in 1989-1991, has decreased by about 43 times, that of
gamma()hexachlorane has decreased by as much as twice, that of DDE – by 7 times, DDD –
by 13 times and that of DDT – by as much as 16 times.
1.3 Social changes
Drastic changes of Lithuania’s population took place over the last few decades. Before
World War II three million people lived in the present territory of Lithuania. Severe
population losses during World War II and the post-war years of active resistance took place
in Lithuania, when about 300 thousand people were killed, more than 400 thousand were
deported to Siberia and many others emigrated. Subsequent censuses showed that the pre-war
population size had not been regained before 1967. From the beginning of 1960’s Lithuania’s
population was growing quite steadily for three decades and in 1992 it reached 3.74 million.
Enforced immigration from the eastern republics of the contemporary Soviet Union
contributed to the growth of Lithuania’ population rather essentially.
13
Since 1993 Lithuania’s population has started to decrease again. Due to decreased
births and increased emigration this trend is continuing so far. According to statistical data
total population of Lithuania consisted 3.46 mln. in 2002.
Birth and mortality rate data during the 1990-2002 year period is presented in Fig.1.9.
It seen that birth rate was decreasing during entire period, whereas mortality rate was
increasing during 1993-1994 and from 1994 population mortality rate started to exceed the
birth rate, that is natural growth of the population became negative. Since 1995 mortality rate
has begun to decrease at the same pace as birth, and negative natural growth of population of
approximately 0.1% has been registered up to 2000. However, from 2001 along with more
fast reduction of births and increased mortality negative natural growth reached 0.3% in 2003.
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Birth rate
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mortality rate
Fig. 1.9 Changes in the birth and mortality rate per 1000 population
Average life expectancy at birth is an important indicator of a society’s wellbeing and
its state of health. During this decade this indice was changing quite significantly. According
to the data presented in Fig.1.10, the average life expectancy at birth of females is
considerably greater than males. This is a characteristic feature of all the countries, but in the
EU countries this difference accounts for about 7 years on average. In Lithuania this
difference exceeded 12 years in 1994 and at present it makes up about 11 years. Since 1991
the average life expectancy at birth of males has been reducing quite significantly. In 1994 it
reached the minimum of 62.6 years, that is nearly four years less than at the beginning of the
transition period and almost 10 years less than on average in the European Union. The
average life expectancy at birth of females did not reduce so significantly and in 1994 it was
only 4 years less than in the European Union.
14
Years
80 76,3 76,1 76 75 74,9 75,1 76 76,8 76,9 77,4 77,5 77,6 77,6
70 66,4 65,3
64,9 63,3 62,7 63,5 65 65,9 66,5 66,7 66,8 65,9 66,2
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
Females
1998
2000
2002
Males
Fig.1.10 Changes in average life expectancy at birth
Since 1995 a quite obvious increase in average life expectancy has been registered in
Lithuania. From 1998 up to 2002 the average life expectancy of males equaled and for
females at 2002 approximately by 1.3 years exceeded level of the end of soviet period.
During the recent decade important reforms were being carried out in the education
system, including a structural reform, introduction of new types of schools and a curriculum
reform. The total number of pupils and students per 10.000 population decreased from 1830
to 1790 at the beginning of the transitional period in Lithuania. However, it has been
increasing since 1995, and in 1997 it exceeded the level of 1990. At present it accounts for
more than 2140 per ten thousand of population.
120
120
107
100
95,6
84,3
thous.
80
74,5
67
60
60,5
67,1
55,1
52,8
51,5
54
58,8
40
20
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Fig.1.11 Changes in number of students
At the beginning of the transition period the number of students in universities
decreased from 67 thousand in the academic year 1990/91 to 51.5 thousand in the academic
year 1994/95. From 1995/96 the number of students at Lithuanian universities started to
increase rapidly, and in the academic year 2002/2003 it reached 120 thousand, that is it
15
exceeded the level of the end of soviet period almost two times. At present the Lithuanian
higher education system includes 19 university-type higher education institutions (including
15 state universities and academies, two church seminaries and two private higher education
institutions) and 16 colleges (including nine private).
One of the most urgent social problems in Lithuania – rather high level of
unemployment. During the last decade very broad and intensive economic transformations in
Lithuania resulted in radical changes in employment. According to the number of the
unemployed registered at the Labour Exchange, the unemployment rate rose from 4,4 percent
in 1993 to 12,5 in 2001. However, special surveys carried out by the Department of Statistics
indicate a much higher level of unemployment.
20
17,4
17,1
16,4
16,4
14,1
Percent
15
13,4
14,1
11,5
10
7,1
5
4,4
5,1
1994
1995
17,4
12,5
13,8
11,3
2001
2002
8,4
5,9
6,4
1997
1998
0
1996
Labour exchange data
1999
2000
Labour force survey data
1.12 Changes in unemployment level
A maximum unemployment rate of over 17 per cent was reached in 1994 – 1995 (Fig.
1.12). Since 1996 the real unemployment rate had been decreasing, but since 1999 it has been
increasing again and in 2001 it reached a level of 1994. Rather essential decrease in
unemployment was registered in 2002, and according to labour force survey data it consisted
13.8 percent.
Low level of disposable incomes is other serious social problem in Lithuania. With
the economic recovery average disposable income per capita has been rising much slower
than GDP and in 2000-2001 even decrease in disposable incomes was registered (Table 1.2).
The share of foodstuffs in all the consumers’ expenditure is the biggest, however has been
decreasing all the time and currently consist about 40 percent. Other main positions in the
consumption expenditure structure are as follows: housing, water, energy- 14.0%, transport6.9%, clothing and footwear-6.5%, communication- 5.2%, health care- 4.8%, recreation and
culture-4.3%, hotels, café and restaurants – 4.6%.
16
Table1.2
Average monthly disposable incomes per capita and
foodstuffs expenditure share
Indicator
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Incomes, LTL
326.7
368.9
422.5
428
415.4
409.5
422.0
Foodstuffs
55.2
52.2
48.1
45.7
44.4
42.4
40.7
expenditure
share , %
The relative poverty line is estimated at 50 percent of the average monthly consumers’
expenditure and is used as the main indicator of poverty. It was changing from 226 LTL in
1996 to 270 LTL in 2002. Poverty level (percentage of people below powerty line) was
reduced very slightly from 18% in 1996 to 16% in 2002.
2. Changes in eco-efficiency of production and consumption
Along with rather fast growth of economies in most newly independent countries,
decoupling of environmental impact from economy growth should be considered as a
one of the most important tasks from point of sustainability. Indicators of eco-efficiency
are of particular importance to evaluate sustainability and reflect a level of dematerialization
of production and consumption and a course of decoupling of use of natural resources and
environmental pollution from economic growth. Amount of production and services per unit
of consumed natural resources is considered as a main indicator of eco-efficiency most often
(Gee and Moll, 1998; Randla, Kurisoo and Vilu, 2002). Very often the inverse of ecoefficiency – eco-intensity (energy intensity, material intensity) is used as indicator of
sustainability (Sun, 2000; Indicators of Sustainable Development, 2001; Miskinis, 2002 ).
Double decoupling, i.e. decoupling of consumption of natural resources from
economic growth, which could be named as primary decoupling, and
decoupling of
environmental pollution from the consumption of natural resources (secondary
decoupling) should be considered for more deep analysis of development trends. In most EU
countries secondary decoupling, as a result of different environmental pollution mitigation
measures, has started since the early 1980s and an essential decrease in emissions of most key
air pollutants was achieved even along with some increase in energy consumption (GEO 3,
2002).
17
Pollution intensity is used as indicator of secondary decoupling in this report. Usually
pollution intensity is considered as amount of pollutants per unit of production (Sun, 2000).
In this report pollution intensity is treated differently, i.e. as amount of pollutants per
unit of consumed resources. Taking into account that measures and decisions needed to
achieve primary and secondary decoupling are rather different, such treatment of pollution
intensity is more useful for analysis of reasons of the main development trends.
Two basic questions should be answered first of all in order to evaluate the changes of
transition period from the point of sustainability:

Has the consumption of natural resources decreased only because of the economic
recession?

Has the environmental pollution decreased only because of the decreased consumption of
resources?
If the answers to both of these questions would be positive, that would mean that
changes that took place in the countries of transition economy did not lead to sustainability,
and along with more fast growth of economy simultaneous increase in the consumption of
natural resources and environmental pollution would start.
120
Percent
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
GDP
Energy consumption
Emission to air
Fig. 2.1 Comparison of changes in GDP, final energy consumption and emissions to air
(1991=100%)
Data on changes in general Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in energy consumption
for production and services, and in total emissions of the main pollutants (sulphur dioxide,
nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds) into the air
18
are analysed first of all (Fig.2.1). For more evident comparison the data of all the mentioned
indicators at 1991 are equalled to 100 percent.
As seen from presented data even during the period, when the most intensive
economic depression took place (1992-1995), the use of energy resources and air pollution
decreased much more rapidly than the production and services (GDP). In the second part of
past decade with a slight recovery in the country’s economy, the amount of the consumed
energy and environmental pollution did not change up to 1998. Due to the Russian economy
crisis, a reduction of GDP was registered in Lithuania in 1999. However, since 2000
Lithuanian economy has started to grow again, but energy use and environmental pollution
have been on an essential decrease. Conclusion can be made on the basis of data presented in
Fig.2.1 that decoupling of production and services from the consumption of resources, which
is named as primary decoupling, took place from the very beginning of transition period.
Decoupling of environmental pollution from the use of energy resources (secondary
decoupling) has started only since 1999 and is not so essential.
So, the first question presented above could be clearly answered – no, the consumption
of resources decreased not only because of economic decline. Transition to the market
economy and restructuring of the Lithuanian economy as well as increased prices of energy
and other resources determined favourable from the point of sustainability changes in
Lithuania’s development from the very beginning of the transition period.
The answer to the second question presented earlier can be answered in the same
manner– no, the emission of pollutants decreases not only because of the decreased
consumption of the resources. Having implemented more advanced fuel combustion
technologies in some energy and industrial enterprises and having started to consume more
natural and in the transport sector – more liquid gas, emissions of pollutants for the same
amount of consumed energy started to decrease as well.
More accurate data on changes in energy intensity (amount of consumed energy per
GDP unit) and pollution intensity (amount of air pollutants per unit of consumed energy) are
presented in Fig. 2.2.
More than double decrease in energy intensity of Lithuania’s economy during last
decade can be seen from presented data. However, comparing with the European Union
member states, the efficiency of energy use in Lithuania is still quite low and energy intensity
is 1.5-1,7 times higher (Miskinis, 2002, 2003).
19
120
Percent
100
100
80
103
111
93
85
74
72
98
103
70
66
96
100
91
80
60
64
59
53
47
40
69
65
45
45
20
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Energy intensity
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Pollution intensity
Fig.2.2 Changes in energy intensity and pollution intensity (1991=100%)
Reduction of pollution intensity has started much later (Fig. 2.2) and emissions of
pollutants for the same amount of combusted fuel has decreased approximately by one third
during the same period.
Efficient use of energy as well as the encouragement of producers and consumers to
use efficiently indigenous, renewable and waste energy resources are very important goals of
energy policy specified in the Law on Energy, National Energy Strategy and the National
Energy Efficiency Programme.
120
Percent
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Industry
Construction
Agriculture
Transport
Trade and services
Fig.2.3 Changes of energy intensity in different economy branches (1991=100%)
(Lithuanian institute of energy, V.Miskinis)
As seen from the data presented in Fig. 2.3, the most significant changes in energy
intensity took place in sectors of agriculture, construction, trade and services. Despite some
increase of energy intensity in agricultural sector in 2002, conclusion can be made, that in
these sectors energy intensity has decreased approximately 4 times during analysed period.
20
Changes of energy intensity in industry and transport sectors were not so considerable,
however approximately 1.8 times decrease in energy intensity took place during 1991-2002
period in these sectors as well.
Over the past decade much attention has been devoted to wider use of indigenous and
renewable energy resources in Lithuania. In 2002 their share within the balance of the
country’s primary energy accounted for over 9%. Wood, waste of wood processing (bark,
branches, sawdust, etc.), biomass of rapidly growing trees and bushes, waste of agricultural
production (straws, boon, etc.), hydroenergy and biogas are the main sources of renewable
energy currently.
The data on changes in production, consumption of natural resources, environmental
pollution and course of primary and secondary decoupling in different sectors of Lithuanian
economy are summarized further.
As it was mentioned earlier industry sector suffered the deepest depression after
reestablishment of independence. The changes in production as created GDP, use of energy
and water resources and emissions to air in the industrial sector are presented in Fig. 2.4. As
seen from presented data, in the first half of the past decade no favourable changes from the
point of sustainability were registered in the industrial sector. Consumption of energy as
well as emissions to air decreased approximately in same proportion as the decrease in
production, and only more intensive decrease in water consumption was registered in 1995
and 1996.
120
Percent
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
GDP
Energy consumption
Water consumption
Emission to air
Fig.2.4 Relative changes in GDP, energy consumption, water consumption and emission
to air in industry sector (1991=100%)
Having started to implement more advanced production technologies and to implement
cleaner production methods (Staniskis, 1996), the eco-efficiency of industrial enterprises
21
started to grow from 1997, and decoupling of production from resources consumption has
started., as a result of these positive changes. Energy intensity decreased by 1.7 times and
intensity of water consumption – by almost 2.2 times in the industrial sector during entire
1991-2002 years period.
However, secondary decoupling (decoupling of environmental pollution from the use of
natural resources) was registered in the industry sector just from 2002 (Fig.2.4) and emissions
to the air per unit of consumed energy (pollution intensity) were reduced only by 20 % during
last decade. Serious attention to the environmental pollution mitigation measures should be
given in nearest future in order to avoid more significant increase of environmental pollution
along with fast recovery of industry.
Low level of recycling is one of the most serious drawbacks of Lithuanian industry from
the point of sustainability. Since a main part of municipal waste is not sorted, the amount of
recycled paper and cardboard waste in Lithuania consist only about 25 %, that of glass – 18
%, and plastic waste accounted for only 6 %. The remaining part of these raw materials is still
taken to landfills. After the Law on Packaging and Packaging waste as well as Amendments
to the Law on Environmental Pollution Taxes came to the power, an essential improvement of
Percent
this situation has started from 2003.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
GDP
1995
1996
1997
Fuel consumption
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Emission to air
Fig. 2.5 Relative changes in GDP, fuel consumption and emissions to air in transport sector
(1991=100%)
Changes in GDP created in transport sector, fuel consumption and emissions to air are
compared in Fig. 2.5. As seen from presented data, fuel consumption in transport sector has
started to decrease along with the more rapid change of road transport fleet from made in
former Soviet Union to cars, trucks and busses made in West Europe and Japan and rather
fast decoupling of fuel consumption from GDP created in transport sector have started only
22
from 1999. To compare with 1998, energy intensity in transport sector during last four years
was reduced almost 1.8 times.
Secondary decoupling in transport sector has started much earlier (Fig.2.5), and
amount of pollutants per unit of consumed fuel has decreased more than two times during
analysed period.
In agricultural sector energy consumption decreased almost eight times during
analysed period. About four times less energy is consumed in order to create GDP unit at
present than at the beginning of the decade. This fact could be assessed differently – on the
one hand, it shows low effectiveness of the former collective farms and very irrational energy
use. On the other hand, it is obvious that current rather
low-productive and poorly-
mechanised agriculture have to be modernised in the nearest future, in order to adjust to the
growing competition as a result of the eurointegration and globalisation processes.
The changes in the annual grain harvest and the amount of pesticides used per one
hectare of arable land are compared in Fig.2.6. It seen that during analysed period the use of
pesticides in order to get the same harvest decreased by about three times, and comparing
with 1990 – nearly six times. At present in Lithuania about 0.25 kg pesticides (by active
substance) are used per hectare of arable land. This experience could be rather useful for
revision of EU agricultural policy and for introduction more environment friendly agricultural
technologies not only in ecological farms, but in conventional farms as well.
120
Percent
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Annual grain harvest
Pesticides consumption
2.6 Changes in the annual grain harvest and the amount of used pesticides
The amount of mineral fertilisers consumed also decreased substantially. At present in
Lithuania 55 kg of the active substance of SPP (sodium-phosphorus-potassium) fertilisers
falls per hectare of land use per year and that is over twice as little than it is on average in the
EU countries. With the consumption of mineral and especially nitrogen fertilisers being on
23
the essential decrease, the leaching of nitrogen compounds into ground and surface waters
decreased to a great degree. At the beginning of the past decade 15-20 kg of nitrogen was
leached from one hectare of agricultural land annually. At present this negative process is
practically almost stopped.
The number of organic farms in Lithuania is constantly on the increase. The year 1993
is the first year of the certification of organic farms. However, so far the area of the certified
organic farms accounts for as little as 0.3% of the farming lands. The average size of an
ecological farm amounts to 20 ha. Grain (40 per cent), potatoes (25 per cent) and vegetables
(12 per cent) constitute the largest part of organic farms production. Milk forms the basis of
ecological animal production. However, milk, beef and poultry are usually sold as usual
production without the labeling of certified ecological products.
The State provides support for the engaged in organic farming. Direct payments are
made for a hectare of crops obtained from a certified plot of land. This support has been
provided to farmers since 1997 and encouraged the increase in the ecological production. The
demand for ecological products in Lithuania is on the increase. However, the infrastructure of
the trade in ecological products has not been formed yet
The household sector consumes about one third of energy and more than 40% of
water (without energy sector) and is quite problematic from the point of sustainable
consumption. General reduction of energy consumption almost by 30% to compare with
1991, was achieved mostly because of insufficient heating of dwellings rather than more
efficient use of energy. The thermal properties of the constructions built in the Soviet times
are very poor, and energy consumption in the heating of dwellings is very high (in average
about 200 kJ per degree per day for 1 m2) and it exceeds the required energy amount in most
of EU countries by more than 2-2.5 times. Therefore renovation of houses (wall warming,
change of windows) is one of the most urgent tasks of the household sector.
A large part of the centralized heating infrastructure is out-dated and has low energy
efficiency. In particular, large energy losses are detected in distribution networks, thus,
apartment-heating cost is very high and comprises approximately 20% of average family
income.
Water consumption in household sector was reduced almost four times during 19912002 years period, mainly because of sharply increased prices and introduction of accounting
system. Daily consumption of water per person decreased from approximately 280 litres in
1991 to 70-90 litres currently and felt below of sanitary norms. Some increase in daily water
24
consumption approximately up to 120 litres is expected in nearest years along with increase
of welfare.
About one million tons of municipal waste is generated in Lithuania annually. By
current estimations about 300 kg of municipal waste form per capita in large Lithuanian
cities, 220 kg in smaller towns and in rural areas it amounts to about 70 kg. Poorly developed
system of municipal waste management, absence of waste sorting infrastructure block
collecting of secondary raw materials and their recycling. Storage of waste in landfills is the
main way of waste disposal so far. About 850 landfills of municipal waste have been
registered in Lithuania in 2000, with 350 of them being in use. The majority of landfills
currently in use do not comply with environmental and sanitarian-hygienic requirements.
Taking into account, that general amount of municipal and industrial waste consist
almost five million tons annually and only a little bit more than 8% of them are recycled and
almost 4% incinerated, modernization of waste management in Lithuania is one of the most
urgent environmental problems. An essential improvement of this situation was started with
implementation of a National Waste Management Strategy, approved by the Government in
2002.
3. The main provisions and objectives of Lithuanian strategy on sustainable
development
The Lithuanian strategy for Sustainable Development Strategy identifies sustainable
development as a compromise between environmental, economic and social objectives of the
society that provide opportunities to improve the welfare of present and future generations
without exceeding allowable limits of environmental impact.
The main objective foreseen in the strategy is to achieve the present level of EU
countries according to indicators of economic and social development as well as the
efficiency in consumption of resources by 2020, and not to exceed allowable EU standards,
according to indicators of environmental pollution, while meeting the requirements of
international conventions in the field of minimization of environmental pollution and input
into global climate change.
The Strategy puts special emphasis to the design and implementation of technologies
that are based on scientific achievements and knowledge rather than intensive use of
resources and to introduction of more environmental friendly production and consumption
patterns.
25
The following Lithuanian sustainable development priorities are formulated:
1. Moderate economic growth balanced between economic branches and regions;
2. Minimization of social and economic differences between regions and within regions by
preserving their identity;
3. Minimization of the impact from the main sectors (transport, industry, energy, agriculture,
housing, tourism) to the environment;
4. More efficient use of natural resources and waste management;
5. Minimization of impact on human health;
6. Mitigation of global climate change and its consequences;
7. More effective protection of biodiversity and landscape;
8. Decrease of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion;
9. Enhancement of education and science roles;
10. Preservation of Lithuanian cultural identity.
Following the general strategic objective, long-term economic and social development
objectives and targets were mostly associated with the current EU indicators of these sectors.
In order to achieve current average level of economic development until 2020, the 6% annual
growth in GDP is foreseen. Taking into account, that indicators of environmental impact and
environmental state (amount of emissions into the air per area unit or per capita, urban air
quality, amount of waste per capita, etc.) are most often higher in EU than in Lithuania, longterm objectives are generally oriented to eco-efficiency indicators (consumption of energy
and natural resources per GDP unit, amount of emissions into the air, industrial discharges or
waste per unit of consumed resources, etc.).
In order to achieve current EU average level according to eco-efficiency indicators
during the implementation of the Strategy (2020), it is foreseen to increase eco- efficiency of
different economic sectors by approximately two fold and secure that growth of the
consumption of natural resources will be twice as slow as growth of production and services.
Integration of environmental concerns into different economic branches and more
effective use of energy and other resources are strongly emphasized in this Strategy. While
implementing the eco-efficiency (dematerialization) principle, introduction of advanced
technologies and production methods that are effective in terms of the consumption of natural
resources, and use of secondary raw materials play a significant role. In this Strategy strong
attention is given to measures related to implementation of substitution (transmaterialization)
principle. It is foreseen to substitute materials hazardous to environment and human health
26
used in industry, agriculture, and household with less hazardous or non-hazardous materials
and substitute nonrenewable resources, and first of all energy resources, with renewable ones.
The main objectives for different economy sectors are as follows:
Industry :
- to increase economic and ecological efficiency of production and ensure that
consumption of energy and water in industry per production of GDP unit is reduced by about
twice, and, according to eco-efficiency indicators, reach the current average level of EU
countries.
- to increase production based on new technologies up to 20-25% of a total amount of
production and, according to this indicator, come to the current average level of EU countries.
- to substitute hazardous to environment and human health materials used in
production with non-hazardous materials and to develop production of biological fuel and
biological oil from rape and cereal production.
- to increase recycling of local secondary raw materials and ensure that Lithuanian
companies are able to recycle amounts of secondary raw materials foreseen in the National
Strategic Waste Management Plan.
- to minimize negative impact of industry to environment and ensure that cleaner
production methods are introduced in not less than one third of Lithuanian industrial
companies until 2015.
Transport:
- to increase economic and ecological efficiency of transport sector and secure that
amount of consumed fuel and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases grow two times
slower than amount of transported cargo and passengers.
- to ensure that biofuel (biodiesel, bioethanol) comprises not less than 15% of fuel
used by road transport until 2020 and increase the use of less polluting environment
conventional fuel (liquid oil gas and compressed natural gas, low sulphur heavy fuel oil for
ships).
- to develop more environment friendly transport modes with special emphasis on the
development of railway and inland water transport and creation of multi-modal transport
systems.
- to develop public transport sector by giving priority to less polluting and less noisy
transport means and to expand the use of biotransport (bicycles, role-skates).
27
- to improve traffic safety and reduce a number of transport victims by approximately
two times till 2010.
Energy sector:
- to increase electricity and heat production and distribution efficiency, two times
reduce emission of pollutants and greenhouse gas per produced energy unit, reduce energy
losses in distribution networks.
- to reduce country’s dependence on fuel import, ensure that energy production from
local renewable and waste energy resources constantly increases and comprises not less than
15% of primary energy balance until 2020, and rationally use waste for energy production.
- to ensure that combined heat and power production comprises about 35% of
electricity production.
-
to expand the use of cleaner organic fuel.
-
to upgrade thermoelectric power plants, secure electricity supply and do not
exceed pollution limits after decommissioning of Ignalina NPP
Agriculture:
- to develop ecological grain and livestock production, ensure that production from
ecological farms constitutes not less than 15% of all agricultural production and selling of
certified ecological products in internal market – not less than 7% of total amount of food
products.
- to increase cultivation of rape and cereals for production of biological fuel
(biodiesel, bioethanol) and biological oils and ensure that their total yield is sufficient to
produce not less than 15% of fuel required to satisfy transport demands.
- to ensure high quality and safety of agricultural products with special emphasis to
ecological products.
- to increase ecological stability of agricultural territories, reduce impact from erosion
and threat to biological diversity, to increase forest area by 3-5% at the expense of nonproductive agricultural lands.
- to encourage re-orientation of average and small-size farms to non-traditional
alternative branches of field and livestock production and more profitable and environment
friendly farming methods.
- to minimize the use of mineral fertilizers and pesticides, introduce their effective
control, strengthen a food quality control.
28
Household sector:
- to increase energy efficiency for house heating by approximately two times and,
according to this indicator, meet the current average level of EU countries.
- to increase energy supply and distribution efficiency, reduce energy losses in
distribution networks.
- to ensure that the amount of household waste grows at a significantly slower rate
than the expenditure of inhabitants.
- to increase household waste sorting and delivering for recycling up 65% of general
municipal waste.
- to ensure that 80% of all Lithuanian inhabitants are connected to the high quality
public water supply networks, and rural population has a possibility to use good quality
drinking water.
Summarising presented materials, conclusion can be made that positive from the point
of sustainability changes took place along with transition to market economy and double
increase in eco-efficiency was achieved during past decade. However, taking into account
acceleration of economic growth in Lithuania, essential efforts, including changes in life
style, will be needed, for further increase in efficiency of production and consumption
foreseen in the Lithuanian strategy for sustainable development.
29