THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM ON TOURISM
BY MARK BENNETT AND HARRY BRAY
1) Introduction
2) Egypt an al- Gama’a al- Islamiya
3) The Kenyan tourist decline
4) The global effects on tourism of September 11th attacks
5) Conclusions
6) Bibliography
1. Introduction
The correlation between tourism and terrorism is undeniable in the modern era due to the strength of the industry and the fact
that these honey pot sites such as the pyramids of Geza act as an ideal target place for terrorist attacks in order to cause large
amounts of social and economic disruption.
The economy in the 21st century is dominated by three industries telecommunications, information technology and tourism.
Tourism provides 10.5% of global employment with in excess of 25% in areas such as the Caribbean. It has been estimated
that by 2008 more then 100 million people world wide will be employed in the sector according to the WTO (World tourism
organization)
The travel and tourism industries have grown by 500% in the last 25 years and it is estimated that in the year 2007 tourists will
spend US$884 billion in foreign countries on tourism related activities. For many countries in the developing world tourism is
the most critical form of income in terms of GDP and therefore a major influence in any economic development. The problem
is for many of these less economically developed countries is that any political issues they may have could cause conflict with
other groups of people who have certain political beliefs could lead to the application of terrorist attacks mainly due to
religious and political opinions and/or land ownership.
These actions of terrorist activity on these tourist areas will most definitely have an adverse effect on the countries economy.
According to Adam Blake and Thea Sinclair accoeding to the WTO, “The contribution of tourism and travel to both
industrialized and developing countries is now so great that any downturns in the level of activity are a cause for concern.
The repercussions extend beyond activities directly associated with tourism, notably airlines, hotels and catering, to sectors
that supply intermediate or final goods that are purchased by firms and employees in the industry, so that all sectors of the
economy are affected to a greater or lesser effect.” In reality the quotation relates to the global impact of terrorist attacks and
shows how the multiplier effect can work in reverse. For example, an initial decline of tourism may cause a negative impact
on employment, homelessness, crime and other economic and social implications which are caused by terrorism, crime and
the closure of borders.
There are a number of supporting case studies where these terrorist attacks have caused a number of problems for tourist
activity in a country including Egypt and the governments confrontations with al-gama’a al-Islamiya where they targeted
international tourists in a five year period from 1992, as well as Kenya where tourism has declined due to the bombing of a
US embassy in Nairobi, the beach hotel in Mombassa in 2002 and the failed missile strike against a plane carrying Israeli
tourists. However, referring back to the multiplier effect, tourism had managed to sustain any continuous loss of negative
tourism growth after a terrorist attack in their relative country until the September 11th attacks which changed tourism’s
relationship with terrorism significantly. This involved the hijacking of planes by al Qaeda in New York. The industry had
taken a few declines throughout its existence for example during the Gulf war where global tourism decreased from 21.5% in
1990 to 3.2% in 1991 a but this soon improved to 13.5% in 1992. However, with the September 11th attacks the tourism
industry was at a peak with high passenger numbers and success from the major tour operators and therefore the implications
were even more dramatic not only for the tourism sectors in America but globally and arguably causing general economic
problems worldwide due to the negative multiplier effect.
2. Egypt and al-gama’a al- Islamiya
Egypt is located in North Africa
bordering Libya, Sudan, The
Mediterranean Sea and the Red
Sea. The country has a population
of about 78 million people with a
very high population density along
the River Nile and in Cairo due to
the highly fertile land (roughly
40,000 km2 ). However, to the
West of Egypt much of the
population is sparsely populated
due to the Sahara Desert.
Rainfall in Egypt is the least in the
world with the country averagely
recording 2 to 5mm every year.
The temperature is also very hot
with 27-32°C recorded in the
summer and 13-21°C in winter.
The Khamaseen is an infamous
wind which carries sand and dust
sometimes raising the air
temperature. This strengthens the
country’s reliance on water from
the River Nile. b
The main resorts in Egypt are
Hurghada, El Goana, Taba and
Sharm el Sheikh which are all
located on coastal areas. These
areas are popular for the marine
ecology and the sandy beaches.
There is also a niche for more
tailored holidays such as Nile
cruises and historic tourism due to
its geography and ancient history.
(Wikipedia)
Egypt is a reasonably good case study when comparing terrorism’s effect on tourism primarily for two reasons. Firstly, Egypt
benefits strongly from international tourism partially due to the Pyramids of Giza and the Aswan Dam. The country is also
Islamic and many terrorist attacks are those from the Islamic community undertaken by a small group of extremists who further
their beliefs through the undertaking of terrorist activity. In this sense the Egyptian government has great problem limiting the
extremism of the Islamic beleifsterrorism which acts as a detriment to their own economic prosperity.
Al-gama’a al- Islamiya has had a long history in Egypt acting as a terrorist group since their first appearances in the late 1970’s.
They fought against the country adopting Shari law which was a fundamentalist law which involves strict laws on dress code,
customs, treatment of non- Muslims and sexual relations. This sort of law forms the basis of extremist Islam in the modern
society. They targeted tourists for a number of reasons. Firstly, tourists are very easy targets. Many of them are on package
holidays and therefore terrorists can plan when their tour bus will arrive or when sittings for lunch will take place and so forth.
Therefore it makes it very easy to precisely plan where and when the attacks could take place. Secondly, most targets understand
how the tourist industry is an elastic market and the consumers are free to choose where they go on holiday. Therefore, they
understand that governments would be put at a loss if tourists travel to other countries. In the eyes of the terrorists they see this
possible economic depression as a result of a decline in tourist numbers as a step to achieving their goals.
The first attack took place in 1992 when gun men attacked a cruise ship which was carrying Germans killing 100 people. These
types of attacks continued over four years when cruise ships and trains of tourists were constantly attacked. However, it was on
18th April 1996 when eighteen people were killed when terrorists hit a bus shelter where 150 Greek people were waiting. This
was very important worldwide because it emphasized a new terrorist ethos which was to kill as many people as possible.
Another major attack took place in 1997 when terrorists killed 57 tourists of different nationalities in a temple after killing local
policemen. The smaller attacks have continued subsequently with the latest being in 2005 in the resort of Sharm al Sheik.
Constant attacks on Egypt’s resorts have caused a fluctuation in international tourists between 1992 and 2001 as shown by the
graph c.
International T ouris t R ec eipts In E g ypt 1992-2001
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
$ (Millions )
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
The graph illustrates there was a general increase in the number of international tourists between 1992 and 2001 although
there were a number of years when tourist numbers decreased as a result of serious terrorist activity. Tourism was seen to
decrease after the 1992 river cruise attack but this was repelled by two years of consecutive tourism revenue growth. It took its
biggest decrease in 1997 after the gun raid on the temple. However, the tourism industry showed how resilient it was and how
much demand there was by increasing tourism receipts by 50% with a record $4.3 billion in 2000 just two years after the lowest
receipts was recorded as a consequence of the temple attacks in Luxor.
These affects of the tourism in Egypt seemed not to be affected by the terrorist attacks as it showed continuous growth on the
graph. This proves that the tourism is far too resilient to be affected significantly by terrorism because there is such as strong
need for holidays and international tourism is still important to tourists as they want something foreign as a holiday. The risks of
terrorism outweigh the possibility of visiting the pyramids or experiencing the climate in the eyes of the tourists. However, the
sustainability of such continuous terrorist attacks must be considered. Eventually the impact on tourism will not be as resilient to
terrorism as tourism companies will not want to invest in the country in terms of hotels, airport facilities and flights into the
countries because of the risk they might get attacked or tourist numbers begin to drop. If this begins to happen international
investment will decrease and cause infrastructure problems (in local hospitals, police and road networks especially). This could
also lead to higher crime rates as unemployment rises in the area due to loss of jobs in the tourism sector and the result will be
that confrontations between groups is likely to worsen. This in essence is what Al-gama’a al- Islamiya set out to achieve.
3. The Kenyan tourist decline
On November the 28th in 2002 a terrorist attack was launched on the hotel paradise in the coastal resort of Mombassa Kenya. A
car bomb detonated on the lobby steps of the hotel killing 13 and injuring 80 tourists. The attacks were carried out by a group
affiliated with al-Qaeda who were responsible for the 9 11 attacks.
Wikipedia
Mombassa is the centre of
coastal tourism in Kenya.
Mombassa Island itself isn't a
main attraction, although many
people visit Old town and Fort
Jesus. North of Mombassa
Island are Nyali, Kenyatta,
Bamburi and Shanzu beaches.
South of the town there are
Shelly, Tiwi and Diani beaches.
Several luxury hotels exist on
these beaches, while most of the
cheaper beach hotels are located
farther away from the town.
Mombassa Kenya, where the terrorist
attacks took place
In Mombassa tourism is the main sector of employment according to WTO. Due to the terrorist attacks this discourages
holidays etc. and demand and flights decreased. Both British Airways and Kenya Airways recorded flight cancellations as
hotel bookings post the 2002 attack due to fear installed by terrorists as well as the general trend of the economy and
peoples unwillingness to fly post 9 11. Fortunately for this LEDC whose economy partiality relies on tourism increasing
since the attacks but the attack originally led to large unemployment in the area which stimulated a negative multiplier effect
in the area, leading to loss of jobs not directly related to tourism but relied on the local peoples trade.
4. The Global effects on tourism of September 11th attacks
On September 11th 2001 there was a series of coordinated terrorist suicide attacks. Two United States airliners were hijacked
and intentionally crashed into the World Trade Centre building in New York by terrorists acting under the command of the alQaeda terrorist group killing 2,972 people, 19 of those terrorists the rest civilians.
This has been the most influential act of terrorism affecting the travel and tourist industry in the 21st century is definetly the
September the 11 attacks. However these attacks weren’t targeted specifically at the tourist industry unlike the attacks in Bali
and Kenya but their economic impact on the industry was far more substantial overall due to the sheer size of the attacks and
the effect it had on tourist’s behaviour. Although the previous terrorist attacks had caused problems yet the industry had
remained resilient; it was the attacks in New York and it’s sheer size which truly shaped the industry.
The total economic impact of 9/11 is realistically immeasurable; however the world travel and tourism council has estimated
the decrease of the travel and tourism demand world wide to be 10%. This equates to the jobs loss of 8.8 million people
globally including airlines, hotels, tour operators, car rental and credit card companies, creating a 1.7% decrease of total GDP
for the world economy. However, it is important to consider that the other factors which may have caused a decrease in total
GDP worldwide. For instance this is a world measure so external factors such as natural disasters and disease outbreaks may
have caused this downturn. Also in terms of the terrorist attacks, the economic downturn may not be caused solely by loss in
tourism. For instance a loss in income from retail in the city or a loss of international trade.
Combined with a lull in the global economy, the attacks on the world trade centre in New York resulted in 4 million less
international arrivals world wide in 2001 in comparison to the previous year. This obviously indicates an element of fear
introduced and an unwillingness to fly particularly on transatlantic flights showing that the tourist industry was affected on a
global scale not just in America. There was a decrease in international tourists in the UK with a 12% decrease in visitor
numbers to Westminster Abbey, 20% at the tower of London and 16% at the Tate Britain. However, American foreign travel
to the USA was most affected with visits falling by 20%. In terms of the passenger numbers the short term affect was
reasonably catastrophic for the airline companies. Passenger numbers for the principal New York airports (John F Kennedy,
Newark and La Guardia) suffered a drop to 38,456,239 in 2002 compared to 44,166,012 in 2001.( www.panynj.gov) Both
British airways and American airlines suffered losses as demand dropped especially in the full service scheduled market
which left the market for new lower cost airlines to be more competitive. British airways battled with Go, Easyjet, Ryanair
and a decreased supply for their service.
Although a number of travel and tourism companies have reported a large
decrease in demand, the long-term outlook for travel and tourism demand is
expected to slowly brighten as the customer confidence is likely to rise with the
increase of security etc. and demand for flights and holidays is on the increase.
This can be backed up with the increase of 547384 between 2002 and 2003 at the
New York airports. This is caused by relatively cheap prices in the airline market
which acts as a repellent to people’s fears of attacks on planes. It seems in the
long term, people are undeterred by continuous security threats such as the ‘baby
milk bombings’ in 2006 and the Glasgow airport car crash in 2007.
The long term effects of September 11th attacks has caused a lot more cautiousness
because the tourism industry was growing at too quickly thanks to cheap flights
and more disposable income especially in North America and Europe. The industry
will most likely never grow as fast as it did before the attacks as a precaution for
any more possible declines. As stated by Adam Blake and Thea Sinclair from the
WTO, “The contribution of tourism and travel to both industrialized and
developing countries is now so great that any downturns in the level of activity are
a cause for concern”
5. The conclusions
It is undeniable that the effects of terrorism in tourist areas have an adverse effect on the economy of that country as seen with
Egypt and Kenya. However, after an initial drop in tourist number things eventually return to normal. This can be seen with
Egypt and in a global sense with people’s attitudes towards flying in regards to the September 11th attacks. This may be due to
grants from government funding to redevelop attacked areas or maybe because the possible threats of terrorism cannot cancel
out the thrills of visiting foreign areas and being an international tourist. It is unreasonable to suggest that people will stop flying
after September 11th even if in the short term there is a decrease. This is because in the modern era people need to fly to reach
different destinations.
As such a provider of employment and economic prosperity in many countries, the tourist industry must be able to remain
resilient in the face of adversity. Although tourists act as an easy target for terrorists if the industry remains flexible in its ability
to diversify when tourism numbers take a downturn it will help ensure economic prosperity is maintained and defeat the primary
objectives of the terrorist groups.
6. Bibliography
a
= www.sonic.net/~schuelke/TerrorismVsTourism.html
= en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt
c
= ‘Egypt- Human Rights abuses’ by Armed groups, Amnesty International, September 1993
b
f//trnniiipnIwtp/:nntE_9www/w/nsnoiiacilcuw/n/owwcyntwww//:ptth
‘Tourism and recreation’ by Jane Dove
http://www.geog.nau.edu/courses/alew/ggr346/wtc/wtc4b.html
http://www.davidrussell.org/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/wtc-9-11.jpg
http://www.geog.nau.edu/courses/alew/ggr346/wtc/wtc4b.html