ACTIVITY 35
Passage A
Is the condition likely? Many people do have unprotected sex, so the condition is not unlikely in general.
Does the consequence follow from the condition? The consequences are too strongly stated. They are
expressed as a certainty. Having unprotected sex once may not lead to either of these consequences.
However, both consequences are likely as a result of unprotected sex. Both consequences are also
very serious and have long-lasting effects.
Does the hypothetical reasoning support the conclusion? Even though the consequences are too
strongly stated, they are both likely and serious, so this does support the conclusion that you should
use a condom.
Passage B
Is the condition likely? It is probably not likely in the near future that we will stop paying a licence fee,
but the point is continually debated. It is plausible that it might be stopped.
Does the consequence follow from the condition? The BBC would have to find funding from somewhere
if it wanted to continue broadcasting without income from the licence fee, and adverts would be an
obvious answer. However, the options presented here may be restricted. It may be possible for the
government to fund the BBC from general taxation, and this may have less effect on its status as a
public service broadcaster than becoming commercial. However, state-run broadcasting tends to be
less impartial than we would like the BBC to be.
Does the hypothetical reasoning support the conclusion? The reasoning gives some support to the
conclusion. Despite the possible restriction of the options in the consequences, the argument does
show that public service broadcasting (funded by a licence fee) is something we want to keep, and that
this means we should keep the licence fee.
Passage C
Is the condition likely? It is highly likely that we want talented youngsters to work hard to excel at their
sport. The looming London Olympics adds to this.
Does the consequence follow from the condition? This is quite a complicated piece of reasoning. It
seems likely that praising people who achieve highly (but are not the best in the world) would
encourage young people to work to excel. It seems likely (to me) that defining excellent and success to
mean only ‘coming first in the world’ will be off-putting to many. On the other hand, it is possible that this
will spur people on to better achievements, knowing that only the best is good enough. (It may be worth
discussing this with the group. This last point can be seen as a highly damaging attitude.)
Does the hypothetical reasoning support the conclusion? Probably, but this depends on what we decide
about the consequence following from the condition.
Passage D
This passage has several fairly unlikely conditions, draws some fairly implausible conclusions from the
conditions and uses these to support a definite conclusion about what we should do now. This is very
close to slippery slope reasoning.
Is the condition likely? ‘If the lump of rock and metal hit us…’. It is fairly unlikely, although not impossible,
that an asteroid predicted to come within 20,000 miles of Earth might hit us. More recent observations
indicate that a collision is extremely unlikely. Comprehensible information can easily be found by using
a search engine to look up Asteroid 2004 MN4.
Does the consequence follow from the condition? In this case, the consequence follows very clearly
from the condition.
Does the hypothetical reasoning support the conclusion? The condition is so unlikely that, however
certain the devastation if an asteroid hit us, spending money now to prepare for space tug development
to avoid a collision seems extreme.
Are the conditions likely? The three possibilities for action are fairly unlikely. It is certainly not very
plausible that we might be able to develop any of this technology. How would we cover an asteroid with
aluminium foil?
Do the consequences follow from the conditions? None of the consequences seems likely to follow
from the attempts.
Does the hypothetical reasoning support the conclusion? Nothing in this reasoning supports the strong
conclusion that we should start preparing space tug development.