NEEDS ANALYSIS FOR INDOOR SOCCER IN WHITEHORSE Phase 1 Final Report Prepared by: Luigi Zanasi Economist Malcolm Taggart – Research Northwest For: Whitehorse Minor Soccer Association March 3, 2001 Major Funding provided by the Community Development Fund, Government of Yukon. Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Executive Summary The basic conclusion of this report is that, given that current facilities are fully utilized, additional facilities for indoor soccer are clearly and unquestionably required to meet both current and future demand. Based on the number of participants, soccer (indoor & outdoor) is now the most popular team sport in the Yukon. The popularity of indoor soccer is likely to increase even more, both because of demographic growth in the relevant age-sex groups and as a result of the aging of current young soccer players. The phenomenal growth of minor indoor soccer has resulted in taking up almost all available suitable school gym space. Indoor soccer is also using gym space that is too small or otherwise unsuitable. The development of men’s, co-ed, women’s and masters’ leagues has been severely limited by the unavailability of suitably large gym space. All the larger gyms in Whitehorse are fully booked. The growth of indoor soccer has also put serious constraints on the growth of other sports that require large gymnasiums, such as basketball, volleyball, and floor hockey. In its current configuration, indoor soccer uses over 100 hours a week of gymnasium time (almost one-third of the total scheduled use by non-school users in the suitable gyms). With the advent of adult leagues, this could easily go to 150 hours. Based only on current demand, even without any consideration for future growth, additional facilities for indoor soccer are clearly required. It appears that just with the current demand, a one-court indoor soccer facility would not be sufficient. (Each court provides 49 hours of prime time per week: 5 hours per day on weekdays from 5:00pm to 10:00pm and 12 hours per day on weekends.) Two courts would be sufficient to meet current demand, but would not allow for growth. Growth could be accommodated either through a third court or using the freed-up gymnasium time. The report makes a number of recommendations regarding record keeping and to proceed with a full-scale feasibility study for an indoor soccer facility. The feasibility study should examine: growth in demand, options for size of facility, effect of different fees, location options, capital and operating costs, and management options. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page i Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... i Contents ......................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................ iii List of Figures .............................................................................................................. iii 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 2.0 Review of Current Demand ................................................................................... 2 2.1. Indoor Leagues & games ................................................................................................................. 2 2.1.1. Whitehorse Minor Soccer .................................................................................................... 3 2.1.2. Co-ed Adult League ............................................................................................................ 3 2.1.3. Women’s Soccer ................................................................................................................. 3 2.1.4. Men’s Soccer ...................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.5. Other Soccer ....................................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Player Demographics ....................................................................................................................... 4 3.0 Review of Facilities ................................................................................................ 6 3.1. Facility usage ................................................................................................................................... 6 3.2. Facility availability ............................................................................................................................ 7 3.3. Safety concerns for each facility ...................................................................................................... 8 3.4. Other facility issues .......................................................................................................................... 9 4.0 Forecast Demand ................................................................................................. 10 4.1. Demographic forecasts .................................................................................................................. 10 4.1.1. Births and Deaths.............................................................................................................. 10 4.1.2. Migration ........................................................................................................................... 10 4.1.3. Implications of demographic projections for indoor soccer demand. ................................ 12 4.2. Indoor Soccer Participation Outside the Yukon ............................................................................. 13 4.2.1. Prince Albert ...................................................................................................................... 14 4.2.2. Medicine Hat, Alberta ........................................................................................................ 14 4.2.3. St Albert, Alberta ............................................................................................................... 15 5.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................. 16 5.1. Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 16 5.2. Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 16 6.0 Appendix: List of contacts .................................................................................. 18 Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page ii Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 List of Tables Table 1 - Number of Registered Participants, Yukon Soccer, 2000 .............................................. 2 Table 2 - Indoor Soccer Participants and Gymnasium Use, by League, Whitehorse, 2000/01 ..... 2 Table 3 - Whitehorse Minor Soccer Divisions, Teams, Start Times and Match Lengths .............. 3 Table 4 - Minor Indoor Soccer Players by Sex, Whitehorse, 1993-2001 ...................................... 4 Table 5 - Percentage Participation Rates in Indoor Minor Soccer, by Age Group and Sex, Whitehorse, 2000/2001 .................................................................................................... 5 Table 6 - Scheduled School Gymnasium Use in Whitehorse by Sport or Activity, Gyms Suitable for Indoor Soccer, October 2000 – April 2001 ................................................................ 6 Table 7 - Unallocated Weekly Gymnasium Time Suitable for Indoor Soccer, Weekdays and Weekends, October 2000-April 2001 .............................................................................. 7 Table 8 - Indoor and Outdoor Soccer Participation, St. Albert, Alberta, 1999-2000 .................. 15 List of Figures Figure 1 - Use of School Gym Time .............................................................................................. 7 Figure 2 - Population Forecast, Boys 5-19, Whitehorse, 2000-2020 ........................................... 11 Figure 3 - Population Forecast, Men 20-39, Whitehorse, 2000-2020.......................................... 12 Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page iii Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Needs Analysis for Indoor Soccer in Whitehorse 1.0 Introduction Soccer is the world’s most popular team sport. There are probably more people who play it in some form than any other. This has also become true in the Yukon, where more people (youth and adults) participate in soccer than in any other team sport. In Whitehorse, more than onequarter of all boys under 19 played in organized soccer (indoor and outdoor) in 2000 as did over 12% of all girls. Soccer has unquestionably become the most popular team sport in the Yukon. In most of the world, soccer is played outdoors year-round, but this is obviously impossible in northern winters. Indoor soccer, played in gymnasiums or in specialized indoor soccer facilities, has become increasingly popular in Canada. It should be noted that indoor soccer is not only a Canadian phenomenon. One version originated in Uruguay in the 1930s, has internationally recognized rules, and is played in many countries where it is called “futsal” or “5-a-side football”. The indoor game is different from the outdoor one. Because of smaller indoor spaces, there are fewer players on the playing surface. Depending on the size of the space and local custom, there may be as few as three players per side with no goal-keepers. And, depending on the facility and local practice, the walls may be “live,” that is, considered part of the playing surface or they may be out of bounds. Whitehorse youth generally play with four and a goal-keeper, while adults generally play with four and no goal-keeper. The walls are usually live in Whitehorse practice. A standard indoor field has a playing area of approximately 180’ by 80’ with live boards similar to those in a hockey rink. In a full sized space such as this, six-a-side soccer (five plus a goalkeeper) with hockey-like substitutions, is generally played. This paper is Phase I of a two-part feasibility study for an indoor soccer facility in Whitehorse. Phase I is a needs analysis of indoor soccer, including forecasts of facilities use and needs. It analyses the current patterns of use in the school gyms where soccer is played and outlines issues and problems with that use. It also analyses the current demand for gym space and the demographics of that demand, and forecasts likely future trends. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 1 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 2.0 Review of Current Demand The growth in the popularity of soccer in the Yukon can be seen from the table below. The figures shown are the total number of registered participants in the Yukon Soccer Association across the Yukon. These figures include both youth and adults, and indoor and outdoor leagues. Table 1 - Number of Registered Participants and growth rates, Yukon Soccer, 2000 Number of participants 1,159 1,240 1,291 1,338 1,644 1,848 +689 Year 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 Total growth 1995-2001 Percentage growth 7.0 4.1 3.6 22.9 12.4 59.4% Source: YTG Sport and Recreation Branch 2.1. Indoor Leagues & games There are a number of different groups and leagues playing indoor soccer. Minor soccer is the largest group, but there is a co-ed adult league and both men and women play regularly though not in a league format. There is currently no adult men’s league, but there appears to be substantial interest in developing one. In addition there are various youth rep and developmental as well as adult elite teams. The following table shows the number of indoor participants and scheduled gym hours. Table 2 - Indoor Soccer Participants and Gymnasium Use, by League, Whitehorse, 2000/01 League/team Minor Soccer Co-ed Women’s Men’s & Masters’ Youth Rep/adult elite Total Number of participants 2000/01 444 65 50 45 § 604 Current Hours of gym use per week 54 14 * 4 37 109 Source: Participant figures provided by Whitehorse Minor Soccer and interviewees. Gym use data from gym use schedule provided by City of Whitehorse Parks and Recreation Note: *Women’s soccer shares time with the women’s rep team. §Most, if not all, rep/elite team players also play in other categories. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 2 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 2.1.1. Whitehorse Minor Soccer The Whitehorse Minor Soccer Association runs a very large indoor league through the winter. The league is divided by the age of the players into 6 divisions. The divisions are: 18 and under, 15&U, 13&U, 11&U, 9&U, and 7&U. All divisions are co-ed. Just under 500 youth play indoor soccer in Whitehorse. Minor soccer uses the gyms at Christ the King, F.H. Collins, Holy Family, Jack Hulland, Selkirk, Takhini, Vanier large, Vanier small, Elijah Smith, and Yukon College. The schedules are designed so that each team has either 2 matches or 1 match and 1 practice each week. Table 3 below lays out some of the details of the minor soccer indoor league. Table 3 - Whitehorse Minor Soccer Divisions, Teams, Start Times and Match Lengths Division 7&U 9&U 11&U 13&U 15&U 18&U No. of teams 4 8 10 13 9 6 Usual start times 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:00pm 8:00pm 8:00pm 9:00pm Match length 20min halves 20min halves 20min halves 25min halves 25min halves 25min halves Source: Whitehorse Minor Soccer Minor soccer has a total of 44 hours per week of scheduled school gym time. The College gym is booked for an additional 10 hours per week, for a total of 54 hours of gym time a week. 2.1.2. Co-ed Adult League The co-ed adult league is non-competitive and has both an indoor and outdoor season. There are approximately 65 players registered for the 2000/2001 indoor season who play on 8 teams. The co-eds play their games in either the Vanier small gym or in Selkirk. Both of these gyms are very small, especially for adult soccer, but are all that is available. The result is that this league plays a highly modified form of the game, playing four a side and using no goal-keepers. The nets are laid down so that the goal mouth becomes very small. The league has 8 games scheduled each week, four in each gym. Games are scheduled in the evenings from Sunday to Thursday. Originally, only the 9pm to 11pm time slots were available, but the league has made arrangements with other scheduled users of the space and so have some games at 7:30pm and at 8:30pm. Total scheduled gym time adds up to 8 hours per week. 2.1.3. Women’s Soccer The Whitehorse Women’s Soccer League runs a four team schedule during the outdoor season but has a more limited indoor presence. The Aurora All Stars, an elite women’s travel team, practices indoors in the Vanier large gym on the weekend. They are joined by other women and play pick-up games. Somewhere between 40 and 50 women participate although not all are there Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 3 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 regularly. The women also use Vanier small gym once a week for practice and pick-up matches. Total scheduled use is 5 hours per week. 2.1.4. Men’s Soccer The Whitehorse Men’s Soccer League, like the women’s does not have an indoor league with set teams and matches. Instead, the men play an informal pick-up game twice a week in the Vanier small gym on Monday and Wednesday nights from 9pm till 11pm. Approximately 40 to 50 men play indoor soccer, but the lack of gym space has hampered the development of league play. Total scheduled use is 4 hours per week. 2.1.5. Other Soccer This heading takes in a variety of other soccer uses of gym space, including the Canada Summer Games teams and various youth rep and adult elite teams. Between them these various teams appear to have 27 hours a week of scheduled gym time per week. The predominant gym used is Vanier large, but Porter Creek High and Jack Hulland also provide time slots. All of these time slots are on the weekend with the exception of 2 hours on Friday nights. 2.2. Player Demographics Given the absence of organized adult leagues and the prevalence of pick-up games, we do not have data on the age and sex of adult participants in indoor soccer. In 2000, about 120 adult men and women played indoor soccer on a reasonably regular basis. Detailed information on youth indoor soccer was obtained from the Whitehorse Minor Soccer Association. There has been phenomenal growth in this sport in the last few years. The number of players has almost tripled over the last eight years. Even more surprising is the growth in the number of girls playing the sport, which went from 42 in 1995 to 131 in 2000. The following table presents summary data on the number of players and teams. Note that these numbers exclude referees, coaches and other non-players. Table 4 - Minor Indoor Soccer Players by Sex, Whitehorse, 1993-2001 1992/93: 1994/95: 1995/96: 1996/97: 1997/98: 1998/99: 1999/00: 2000/01: Boys Girls N/A N/A 172 177 246 278 321 313 N/A N/A 42 57 84 108 140 131 Total Players 175 203 214 234 330 386 461 444 Number of Teams 25 29 27 27 36 45 52 50 Source: Whitehorse Minor Soccer Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 4 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 We can also examine participation rates, or the percentage of people in each age group playing indoor soccer. The evolution of participation rates can also give an indication of the demand that can be expected in the future, as these people age. There has been a constant increase in participation rates for all age groups for both boys and girls, with a slight decline in 2000. The following table shows the approximate percentage of the population in each age-sex group who play indoor soccer in 2000-2001. These were calculated based on the population in each age group in Whitehorse in December 2000. Table 5 - Percentage Participation Rates in Indoor Minor Soccer, by Age Group and Sex, Whitehorse, 2000/2001 Age group Both Sexes 5-9 6.7% 10-14 15.1% 15-19 2.9% Total 5-19 8.3% Girls 2.0% 10.5% 1.3% 5.1% Boys 11.3% 19.1% 4.4% 11.3% Source: Calculated from data provided by Whitehorse Minor Soccer and the Yukon Bureau of Statistics Health Care population for Whitehorse It is clear from the above table that older pre-teens and young teens (10-14) have the highest participation rates in indoor soccer. The participation rate of teenagers (15-19) is likely to increase as those now under 15 get older. However, the growth in participation by this age group is severely limited by the availability of the large gyms they require. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 5 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 3.0 Review of Facilities 3.1. Facility usage Soccer is the single largest non-school user of school gym space in Whitehorse. Soccer takes up 21% of the scheduled available time in all school space, compared with 13.5% for basketball, the next largest user. This percentage includes not only gyms suitable for indoor soccer, but also all other gyms and also some schools’ multi-purpose rooms, etc. However, not all available spaces are suitable for indoor soccer. The school gyms that can be used for indoor soccer are: Vanier large, Vanier small, F.H. Collins, Porter Creek, Takhini, Jack Hulland, Holy Family, Elijah Smith, Émilie Tremblay, Selkirk, and Christ the King. When we examine only those school gyms in which it is possible to play soccer (eliminating such spaces as the Wood St. Annex, the multi-use room at Elijah Smith etc.), the sport takes up over 30% of scheduled non-school use of suitable space as shown in the table below. Table 6 - Scheduled School Gymnasium Use in Whitehorse by Sport or Activity, Gyms Suitable for Indoor Soccer, October 2000 – April 2001 Activity Dance Gymnastics Climbing Computer Group Archery Exercise Tennis Floor Hockey Other Community Group Guides, Scouts & Cubs Badminton Church Groups Martial Arts Volleyball Basketball Soccer Grand Total Hours per week 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 6.5 12.0 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.0 22.0 30.0 64.0 99.0 322.5 Percentage of available time 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 3.7% 3.9% 5.1% 5.4% 6.2% 6.8% 9.3% 19.8% 30.7% 100.0% Source: Calculated from schedules provided by City of Whitehorse Recreation Note: Includes the following 11 gyms: Vanier large, Vanier small, F.H. Collins, Porter Creek, Takhini, Jack Hulland, Holy Family, Elijah Smith, Émilie Tremblay, Selkirk, Christ the King. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 6 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Figure 1 - Use of School Gym Time Use of School Gym Time Badminton 5% Guides, Scouts Church Groups Martial Arts & Cubs 6% 7% Community 5% Volleyball Group 9% 4% Floor Hockey 2% All others 11% Basketball 20% Soccer 31% 3.2. Facility availability Could soccer expand its use of the school gyms to allow more youth and adult indoor soccer? The table below shows the total unscheduled hours available in the 11 gyms where it is possible to play indoor soccer. Unscheduled time was calculated by adding up any blocks between 5pm and 10pm on weeknights and between 10am and 10pm on weekends. Table 7 - Unallocated Weekly Gymnasium Time Suitable for Indoor Soccer, Weekdays and Weekends, October 2000-April 2001 School Christ the King Elijah Smith Émilie Tremblay FH Collins Holy Family Jack Hulland Porter Creek Secondary Selkirk Takhini Vanier large gym Vanier small gym Total Weekday hours 0 4 7 2 3 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 22.5 Weekend hours 16.5 21 18 0 17 7 0 4 16.5 0 15 115 Total Hours 16.5 25 25 2 20 13.5 0 4 16.5 0 15 137.5 Source: Calculated from schedules provided by City of Whitehorse Recreation Notable in the table above is that there is absolutely no unscheduled time available in either Vanier large or Porter Creek gyms, and only 2 hours still available in F.H. Collins (Friday evenings). In effect there is no available time in the three large gyms most suitable for soccer as Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 7 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 well as sports such as basketball and floor hockey. These larger spaces are absolutely necessary for the older divisions of minor soccer, for competitive adult play, and for youth rep teams. It is not simply the raw number of unscheduled hours available that is important in determining how much or whether soccer can expand its use of the schools, however. Equally important is how those hours are distributed through day and through the week. As can be seen above, most of the unscheduled time is available on weekends. Almost half of the currently available weekday hours available are in the 5:00PM to 6:00PM time slot — an awkward time both for adults who may work till 5:00PM and for youth who require those same adults to drive them to games. In the overall then, if soccer wishes to expand its programmes using existing gym space, it must do so only in the smaller gyms and largely on weekends. For adult and older teenagers, the small gyms become the stumbling block, while regular minor soccer games and practices do not currently occur on weekends at all because of the scheduling problems this posed in the past. Keeping regular schedules is often difficult. Co-ed soccer has to reschedule quite often because of other bookings, about 1.5 games per week on average. Weekend times are even more problematic for regular league play. Gyms are often required for special events and tournaments on weekends. The Whitehorse Rapids’ Saturday morning slot has had to move from the Vanier large gym or cancel between a quarter and a third of the time. Whitehorse Minor tried to run its programs on weekends but has abandoned that practice because of continual changes in schedules. The lack of available facilities is also a large impediment to holding tournaments. Tournaments require large blocks of time, usually in the larger gyms, over an entire weekend. 3.3. Safety concerns for each facility Safety concerns in the facilities currently in use by soccer include: Gym equipment (trampolines, gymnastic horses, garbage cans) left stored in corners is a concern in a number of schools. Such equipment creates both a safety hazard and problems with play as the ball becomes caught or bounces in unpredictable ways. A number of schools have projections or other features that are both hazards and obstacles to smooth play (the walls are part of the playing surface). Jack Hulland has a 3-foot stub wall projecting into the gym from each wall at centre court (part of the divider that can be stretched across the room). The water fountain in the Vanier large gym is a safety issue. Takhini has an exposed pipe standing clear of the wall and a fire extinguisher, both of which present hazards. A number of schools have climbing walls or wall bars that again are a potential hazard and create wild bounces. Spectators sit on the stages in a number of gyms. This creates a hazard as balls often hit spectators. Christ the King’s gym floor surface appears to be deteriorating rapidly and may need replacing. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 8 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Bleachers are both a safety and quality of play issue in all gyms that have them, especially when they are in a partially pulled out position. Basketball nets in the down position are also a problem in all gyms as they interfere with high kicks. While this can be seen as largely a quality of play issue, it can also be a safety issue as with anything that creates wild and unpredictable bounces. Almost all gymnasiums have doors along the walls that form part of the playing area for soccer. These doors inevitably have projections (handles, crash bars, or simply metal jambs) that are a hazard during play. The stairs up to the stage create a hazard in some gyms, with F.H. Collins being a prime example. The tracking of snow over playing areas by spectators can create a slipping hazard in gyms such as F.H. Collins and Vanier large where access for spectators is difficult. 3.4. Other facility issues The small size of many of the gym spaces was a recurring theme in the interviews with soccer users. Holy Family, Jack Hulland large gym, and Christ the King are considered to be too small for soccer even for the youngest of the minor soccer divisions. Some coaches believe that Selkirk is too small for all except the 7&U division, and the Vanier small gym is of adequate size for the 9&U and 7&U divisions. The gym at Yukon College is considered a reasonably good facility by many, but the expense of renting it discourages more use. In addition, some feel that because its floor is of a different material than the wooden floors in most gyms, strains and sprains are more likely for those playing on it only occasionally. (It should be noted that Yukon College, Holy Family and CKES all have the same type of floor surface). The lack of consistent soccer markings on the various gym floors is a quality of play issue raised frequently. Some gyms lack markings entirely while others have wildly inconsistent crease marks, for example. This creates particular problems during tournaments as teams may play in several gyms over the course of a weekend. Clean up of the gym facilities can become an issue for users. While in some cases the custodians uncomplainingly take care of any extra clean up of the gym, others resent the work required. Some schools have mops left out allowing the floor to be cleaned but others do not. Another related issue is the removal of such things as benches by the first user of a gym in the early evening and the failure of the final user (who is unaware that they have been moved) to replace them. This has caused some friction with the Takhini School for example. Although minor soccer coaches are technically only responsible for the conduct of their players, they also have to deal with the conduct of any other people (e.g. siblings, friends) that the players bring along to practices and games. This can also become a security issue, as most gyms are not locked off from the rest of the school. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 9 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 4.0 Forecast Demand At this point, we are unable to provide precise forecasts of the demand or usage for indoor soccer. Demand in Whitehorse is currently constrained by the availability of facilities, so we know that there is still room for growth, especially in adult leagues. It is clear that current demand is not being met by existing facilities. 4.1. Demographic forecasts We prepared demographic forecasts for Whitehorse under three different migration scenarios. The model we developed is a five-year cohort (age group) population projection model. A demographic projection model requires a number of assumptions about birth rates, death rates and migration. 4.1.1. Births and Deaths The birth rate assumption we use is the 1991-1995 Yukon average fertility rate for each 5-year cohort of women. Birth rates are forecast to decline by 10% over the next 10 years in the low and medium scenario and to remain constant in the high scenario.1 Death rates are the average 19921995 Yukon death rate for each five-year age group and are assumed to remain constant in all scenarios. 2 4.1.2. Migration Three different migration assumptions form the basis for the different scenarios. The low scenario assumes a net annual out-migration of about 170 individuals per year. Most of the outmigration is in the 15-25 age groups (young people leaving for school) and in the 45-69 age groups (retirement), with no net migration in other age groups. The total was arrived at by looking at the percentage of each age group that migrates every year, rounding it to the nearest percentage, and applying it to the population age distribution. The medium scenario has zero net migration. It has the same net out-migration as the low scenario, but that is offset by net in-migration in other age groups (0-14 and 25-44). The high scenario assumes a net in-migration of 200 people per year, distributed in the same agegroup pattern as was experienced in the Yukon during the high net in-migration years (1991,1992, 1995, & 1996). The 200 total was selected to match the high-growth Yukon Bureau of Statistics’ migration assumption of 300. It is assumed that two-thirds of the net migration will settle in Whitehorse, roughly matching that city's percentage of the Yukon population.) The following two charts summarize the results of the population projection exercise for boys between 5 and 19 years of age and for men between the ages of 20 and 39. These form the 1 This is the same assumption used by the Yukon Bureau of Statistics in its low growth population projections. (YBS, Population Projections to 2009, Information sheet #66.04-99.09) 2 Birth and death rates were obtained from Statistics Canada, Births and Deaths, 1993 and Births and Deaths, 1995, Catalogue #84-210 Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 10 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 majority of soccer players although the sport is increasingly popular among girls, women and older men. Demographic growth patterns for women are very similar to those for men. Figure 2 - Population Forecast, Boys 5-19, Whitehorse, 2000-2020 Whitehorse Boys (5-19) Population Forecast 3,500 3,000 Population 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 20 20 20 15 20 10 20 05 20 00 - Year High Males 5 - 19 years Medium Males 5 - 19 years Low Males 5 - 19 years The number of boys is expected to decline over the next five years under all three scenarios. This is a result of the aging of the baby boom “echo” (children of the baby boomers born between 1945 and 1965). Under a high growth scenario, the number of boys will start increasing after 2006. In a medium growth scenario, the number of boys is expected to stabilize at about 2,500 after 2005. In the low growth scenario, the continuing net out-migration will result in a continued slight decline in the number of boys to about 2,200 in 2020. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 11 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Figure 3 - Population Forecast, Men 20-39, Whitehorse, 2000-2020 Whitehorse Men (20-39) Population Forecast 5,000 4,500 4,000 Population 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 20 20 20 15 20 10 20 05 20 00 - Year High Males 20 - 39 years Medium Males 20 - 39 years Low Males 20 - 39 years The population of men between the ages of 20 and 39 is expected to increase under both the high growth and medium zero net-migration scenarios. This is a result of the offspring of the baby boomers as well as the tendency for in-migration to the Yukon to be composed of younger adults. In the high growth scenario, the population of younger adult men could reach 4,500 by 2020, while the medium growth would result in an increase of about 600, with the young adult male population reaching 3,600 by 2020. In the low growth scenario, with continuing net outmigration from Whitehorse, the population of young men would decline very slowly to about 2,600 in 2020. 4.1.3. Implications of demographic projections for indoor soccer demand. Even assuming that soccer does not continue to increase in popularity, the demand for indoor soccer facilities is likely to increase. The slight decline in the number of children wanting to play will be more than compensated by an increase in adult players. It is only if Whitehorse’s population continues to decline that there will be a reduction of demand. As the large number of today’s young soccer players reach adult age, the percentage of the adult population wanting to play soccer is highly likely to increase. This points to an increased demand for adult indoor soccer, a demand that needs larger spaces. As is pointed out above, the larger gyms are currently fully booked. If no new facilities become available, an expansion of soccer can only be done at the expense of other sports. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 12 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 4.2. Indoor Soccer Participation Outside the Yukon Our original intent was to obtain detailed information on participation in indoor soccer in similarly sized communities in Western Canada (outside coastal British Columbia). We not only wanted information on current participation, but also on changes that occurred when indoor soccer centres were built in those communities that have them. The places we identified in an attempt to contact their soccer organizations are presented in the following table. Table 8 - Indoor Soccer in Western Canadian Communities Community 1996 Population Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo (Alta.) 36,124 Grand Centre/Bonnyville (Alta.) 35,161 Grande Prairie (Alta.) 31,140 Lethbridge (Alta.) Medicine Hat (Alta.) 63,053 56,570 Red Deer (Alta.) 60,075 St. Albert (Alta.) Dawson Creek (B.C.) Fort St. John (B.C.) Williams Lake (B.C.) 46,890 11,125 15,021 38,552 Prince George (B.C.) 75,150 Yellowknife (N.W.T.) Estevan (Sask.) Lloydminster (Sask. / Alta.) 17,275 12,656 18,953 Moose Jaw (Sask.) 34,829 North Battleford (Sask.) Prince Albert (Sask.) 17,987 41,706 Swift Current (Sask.) 16,437 Carlton Trail/Humboldt/Lanigan (Sask.) Yorkton (Sask.) ~10,000 17,713 Indoor Soccer facility 1 field opened Jan 2001 Yes Yes Yes opened Jan 2001 Planning Indoor Soccer program Yes – limited Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Under discussion Planning Planning – fundraising started Yes Under discussion Under discussion Under discussion Adult Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes – no outdoor Yes Source: Population figures from Statistics Canada, 1996 Census. Information on soccer obtained from Provincial and local soccer associations. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 13 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 Despite our best efforts to date, we have only been able to obtain participation information on three other communities: Prince Albert in Saskatchewan, and Medicine Hat and St. Albert in Alberta. 4.2.1. Prince Albert Prince Albert, a Saskatchewan town of approximately 40,000 people, built a one-field indoor soccer facility in 1995. The facility is an old warehouse that has been converted. The local soccer association went into partnership with the local gymnastics club and a community group to buy and convert the building. The building is divided to give both the gymnasts and the soccer players a dedicated facility. The soccer field is smaller than the ideal at approximately 140’x 65’ due to the constraints of the existing structure. Although Prince Albert has a very active outdoor soccer program in the summer with approximately 2,000 to 2,500 youth and adults registered to play, it had a relatively small indoor program. Before the indoor facility was built, approximately 200 to 300 youth played indoor soccer in the school gyms. There was no adult indoor league play. They now have 650 youth and 6 adult teams playing indoors in their facility. This is the maximum possible use of the facility, it is booked solidly every weekday evening from 5:30 till 11:30pm and all day and evenings on the weekend for soccer. Ideally, the soccer association would now like to buy out their gymnastic partners and so be able to have a two-field facility. They feel they have the demand and could likely use two fields to their maximum or near-maximum capacity. Of course, the soccer players are only able to play in the evenings and on weekends and so the association rents out the facility to other users on weekdays. Other users include a senior’s walking club and the schools. 4.2.2. Medicine Hat, Alberta Medicine Hat Alberta has a population of approximately 50,000 people. The local soccer association has the use of a one-field indoor soccer facility that opened in 1998. Unlike Prince Albert’s, the Medicine Hat facility was built from scratch but it is a multi-use space attached to a community multi-plex. Before the facility was built, there were approximately 200 youth playing indoor soccer in the school gyms. There was little or no adult indoor soccer being played. Since the facility opened, the numbers increased to 500 youth and approximately 250 adults engaged in league play. Like Prince Albert, the facility is completely booked for soccer on evenings and weekends through the indoor season. Apparently there was a very large hidden demand for adult indoor soccer in particular that only emerged once a proper facility existed. The greatest regret in the Medicine Hat soccer community is that they did not find a way to build a two-field facility. There is likely enough soccer demand to fully utilize the second field locally, and a single field facility makes it very difficult to hold tournaments. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 14 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 4.2.3. St Albert, Alberta The St. Albert Soccer Association sent the following information to Whitehorse Minor Soccer. There are currently about 1,500 indoor soccer players in St. Albert: 400 adults and 1,100 youth. This represents a considerable increase over 1999 when there were 1,200 players. The following table presents the number of players and participation rates for Indoor and Outdoor Soccer in Price Albert in the 2000/2001 season. Table 9 - Indoor and Outdoor Soccer Participation, St. Albert, Alberta, 1999-2000 2000 1999 2000 1999 Youth (6-19) Adult (20-54) Number of Participation Number of Participation players Rate players Rate Indoor soccer 1,100 8.9% 400 1.6% 800 6.5% 300 1.2% Outdoor Soccer 2,850 23.1% 720 2.8% 2,600 21.8% 480 1.9% Given St. Albert’s larger population (46,890 in 1996), it is not surprising that it has more players. When we divide the number of players by the relevant population, St. Albert has youth indoor soccer participation rates similar to Whitehorse. However, it has much higher adult participation rates. The St. Albert Soccer Association has about 140 hours a week of indoor soccer, of which 40 hours are in local gyms and about 100 hours are in Edmonton area soccer centres. The SASA still has no firm plan to build an indoor centre, but they are thinking of a 3- or 4-field facility. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 15 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 5.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 5.1. Summary and Conclusions The popularity of soccer and indoor soccer in particular has increased phenomenally in the last decade. Soccer is now the most popular team sport in the Yukon gauged by the number of participants. That popularity is likely to increase, both because of demographic growth in the relevant age-sex groups and as a result of the aging of current young soccer players. The phenomenal growth of minor indoor soccer in the last few years has resulted in taking up almost all available suitable school gym space. And even that is not enough. The development of men’s, co-ed, women’s and masters’ leagues has been severely constrained by the unavailability of suitably large gym space. The popularity of indoor soccer has also put serious constraints on the growth of other sports that require large gymnasiums, such as basketball, volleyball, and floor hockey. In its current configuration, indoor soccer uses over 100 hours a week of gymnasium time. With the advent of adult leagues, this could easily go to 150 hours. Most of the elementary schools gyms are too small or otherwise inappropriate for indoor soccer, especially for older children and adults. All the larger high school gyms in Whitehorse are fully booked and there is no room for expansion. A number of gyms have safety hazards for soccer players. Based only on current demand, even without any consideration for future growth, additional facilities for indoor soccer are clearly required. It appears that just with the current demand, a single field indoor soccer facility would not be sufficient. One indoor soccer field would provide about 50 hours of “prime” playing time per week. This includes 5 hours per day on weekdays (from 5:00 PM to 10:00 PM) and 12 hours per day on weekends (10:00 AM to 10:00 PM). This is based on the assumption that all games are played full field. The youngest divisions of minor soccer might be expected to play half field games. It should be noted that an indoor soccer facility might allow larger teams to play, but this would only slightly reduce the gym time required, given the number of age divisions. Fifty hours per week is half of the current gym utilization by soccer. Two fields would be sufficient to meet current use, but would not allow for growth. Growth could be accommodated either through a third field or possibly using the freed-up gymnasium time. 5.2. Recommendations 1. Data should be kept on the demographics of adult soccer participants. 2. The various soccer associations should keep data on the size of waiting lists and the number of applicants. 3. Whitehorse Minor Soccer should proceed with a feasibility study that would examine and recommend options for an indoor soccer facility. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 16 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 4. Forecasts of demand based on the experience of other communities should be developed for the feasibility study. This would entail obtaining better information on participation rates in similarly sized communities in western Canada. 5. The feasibility study should consider options for a one-field, a two-field and a three-field facility, and the impact of each option on gym utilization and on other sports. 6. The feasibility study should examine the effect of costs on the popularity of the sport and estimate the effect of different fee regimes on participation. This might be done through a survey of the motives of soccer players and/or their parents as well as the examination of fee structures in other similar-size communities with indoor soccer facilities. 7. The feasibility study should review and evaluate different location options for a soccer facility. The options to be considered should include a stand-alone facility, either new or a renovation of an existing structure; integrating the soccer facility with the multiplex; attaching the facility to an existing school; given that rebuilding F.H.Collins is under review, incorporating an indoor soccer facility in the new school. 8. The feasibility study should examine operating costs under the different location options as well as facility management options. The management options to be evaluated could include: management by the City of Whitehorse, by the Department of Education, or by a soccer association. 9. The feasibility study should examine what would be required to make the facility selfsufficient, as soccer facilities are self-sufficient in a number of other communities. Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 17 Indoor Soccer Needs Analysis Final Report March 3, 2001 6.0 Appendix: List of contacts Whitehorse Minor Soccer Bernice Carveth Chris Blore Gerald Haase Kerry Nolan Brian McGovern John McPhail Ken Sylvestre Hanne Hoefs President & coach Board member & coach Board member & coach Board member Coach Coach Coach Sport Administrator Whitehorse Adult Soccer Crystal Birmingham Danny MacDonald Brenda Dion Joe Zuccarini Daniela Meier President of Women’s League Acting president of Men’s League Aurora All-stars Coach of CSG Men’s Team Vice-president, Co-ed Adult Soccer Yukon Soccer Association Dave Stockdale Don Russell Lynda Ehrlich Carmen Ingram Derric Lewis Sarah Hanson Andy Bjerke Grant MacDonald Pat Westberg Charly Kelly Dean Mastrangelo President Northern Flames Northern Flames Midnight Sun Kickers Assante Templars CSG Women’s Northern Knights (Under-16 Rep) Under-13 Boys Rep CSG Boy’s Aurora All-stars & Midnight Sun Kickers Sport Administration Outside Contacts Anna Smith David Herbert Medicine Hat Soccer Association Prince Albert Minor Soccer Association Government Contacts Doug Hnatiuk Linda Armstrong Vern Haggard Peter Milner Gordon deBruyn Colin McDowell City of Whitehorse Parks and Recreation City of Whitehorse Parks and Recreation Yukon Sports and Recreation Yukon Sports and Recreation Yukon Department of Education Yukon Department of Education Prepared by Luigi Zanasi Economist Research Northwest Page 18