The Common Denominator:
Risk-Based Population Management
Meghan Guevara
Managing Associate,
Crime and Justice Institute at CRJ
1170h
RNR
TJC
AB900
EBDM
CCP
EBP
JRI
CBT
MI
The Fundamental Question:
How can counties effectively
manage the public safety risk
posed by criminals in their
community?
The Risk Principle
• Risk of criminal behavior is measurable
• Risk level influences the efficacy of criminal
justice interventions
• Overall risk is comprised of several factors
– Static criminal history
– Dynamic treatment needs
Risk-Based Intervention Goals
Low Risk
Low/
Moderate
Moderate/
High
Very High
Risk
Diversion;
Short
Intervention
Limited
Punishment/
Sanction
Supervision
and
Treatment
Surveillance &
Incapacitation
Goal:
Efficiency
Goal:
Punishment/
Deterrence
Goal: Risk
Reduction
Goal: Public
Safety
Courtesy of Dr. Christopher Lowenkamp
The Risk Principle
• Targeting interventions to risk level:
– Applies resources effectively and efficiently
– Optimizes recidivism reduction
• The principle applies to different populations
at virtually all decision points
Continuum of Risk Management
Pretrial
• Risk of Absconding
• Risk of New Crime
• Eligibility for Diversion
Courts
• Sentencing Decisions
• Terms of Supervision
• Responses to Violations
Jail/Prison
• Classification
• Eligibility for Treatment
• Reentry Planning
Community
Supervision
• Supervision Planning
• Treatment Planning
• Response to Violations
Treatment
• Program Placement
• Treatment Intensity
A Systemic Approach
• Consider the goal of each decision point in your
system
– Rehabilitation? Containment? Punishment?
• Determine a strategy to assess and address
appropriate static and dynamic needs
– Role of the criminal justice system
– Role of community services
– Role of informal support systems
• Ensure continuity whenever possible
• Consider when status matters
The Results
• Courts, jails, and probation function efficiently
while managing diverse populations
• Resources go where they’re most needed to
maintain public safety
• Strategies are in place to manage recent
system reforms, and whatever letter comes
next in the alphabet soup
Throughout the Conference
• Consider how cases are managed in your system:
– What strategies do stakeholders use to manage
populations? Are they inter-related?
– How are resource allocations made?
– What is working to increase public safety?
– Where are improvements needed?
• How can data-driven, risk-based approaches
contribute to just, safe, and efficient
administration of justice?