Nivesh Commodity
26th February, 2016 Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Copper 199250 ‐3200 Nickel 443010 ‐2250 Lead 215875 ‐1800 Zinc 488450 ‐4600 Alumni 2777450 ‐6375 Gold Lease Rates 1 m 0.0884% +0.0250 2 m 0.1100% +0.0175 3 m 0.1381% +0.0150 6 m 0.2097% +0.0025 1 y 0.4007% +0.0050 Daily Change & Technical levels Scrip GOLD SILVER CRUDE NG COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALUMINIUM % Close Change
29774
0.70
37207
‐0.11
2202
‐0.59
124.40
‐2.97
315.00
‐0.91
572.90
‐3.29
116.20
‐0.94
118.90
‐1.61
108.45
‐0.23
S1 29496
36885
2164
121.5
312.9
566.1
115.4
117.8
107.6
S2 29232 36581 2121 118.6 310.5 559.6 114.6 116.6 106.9 PIVOT 29658 37165 2201 124 316 578 117 120 109 R1 29922
37469
2244
127.1
318.7
584.5
117.7
121.2
109.5
R2 30084
37749
2281
129.8
322.1
596.4
119.1
123.3
110.7
Comex Division Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Gold Silver $1232.80 $15.13 0.33 ‐0.57 * According to 25 FEB, 2016. Ankit Kapoor Sr. Research Analyst Mobile: +91‐7389934302 Tel: +91‐0731‐4262702 ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 1
BULLION
Gold prices dip in Asia on profit taking, support remains on rate views Review Gold prices eased in Asia on mild profit taking with continued support seen from easy global monetary policy. Overnight, gold futures ticked up on Thursday, as metal traders reacted to a mixed batch of U.S. economic data and a major sell‐off among equity markets in China ahead of the start of the Group of 20 summits in Shanghai. In overnight Asian trading, the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled more than 6%, amid tighter liquidity requirements, while the offshore Yuan moved lower for the fifth consecutive session. It came as the People's Bank of China broadened reserve constraints for a number of financial institutions, which reportedly received more favorable treatment from the Chinese central bank in recent months. As a result, the overnight repurchase rate surged 14 basis points, its highest amount In two weeks, to 2.11%. The decline in China's benchmark index marked the steepest one‐day fall in a month, pushing year‐to‐date losses to 22%. China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second‐largest consumer of the precious metal behind India. Investors were fairly cautious ahead of a trio of economic releases on Friday morning. The second estimate of fourth quarter Real GDP is expected to come in at 0.4%, slightly below initial forecasts of 0.7%, while analysts anticipate a slight uptick in consumer sentiment from February's flash reading. The Core PCE Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is forecasted to rise by 0.2% after a flat reading in December. Core PCE Inflation, is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, for price stability. On an annual basis, inflation has remained under the Fed's targeted objective of 2% for every month over the last three years. The Fed could be compelled to delay its pace of tightening if it sees continuing signals of sluggish inflation. Following December's historic rate hike, the U.S. central bank held its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a targeted range between 0.25 and 0.50 at a meeting last month. Any rate hikes this year are viewed as bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with high‐yield bearing assets in rising rate environments. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at 29774 and 37207 respectively. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote Today, Gold has support at 29400 and resistance at 29900 while Silver has support at 36700‐‐36400 and resistance at 38000. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation. 2
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ENERGY
Oil prices dip on continued oversupply, despite news of meeting to freeze output
Review Crude oil prices dipped in early trading on Friday as reports of a meeting by oil producers to freeze output failed to convince traders that enough effort was being made to rein in ballooning global oversupply. The drop in prices came after oil markets rose late on Thursday on the back of strong U.S. gasoline demand and what ANZ bank called a "perennial hope that OPEC members can coordinate supply". That hope was stoked by reports that OPEC‐members Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela, as well as non‐OPEC producing giant Russia, would meet in March to discuss capping crude oil production at January levels. But the rally did not last into Friday as traders estimated that a freeze in production would not reduce a glut that has pulled down prices by 70% since 2014. International Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were trading at $34.89 per barrel at 0139 GMT (8:39 p.m. ET), down 40 cents from their last settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were down 21 cents at $32.86. "Capping production at January levels, when the market was pumping out well over a million barrels of crude a day above what consumers need, will in no way reduce overcapacity. In fact, given that Iran has started to return to markets since January, it'll worsen the glut," said one senior oil trader. Iran is hoping to increase its crude exports by 1 million barrels per day within the next year after international sanctions against it were lifted in January. The sanctions had cut Iran's exports by more than half from a pre‐sanctions peak of almost 3 million barrels per day in 2011. Despite the glut, prices did receive some support this week from strong demand for gasoline, especially in the United States. "The idea that gasoline demand is actually rising suggests that perhaps the lower prices of crude are actually prompting a greater usage of this product (gasoline)," said Vyanne Lai, oil analyst at National Australia Bank. Crude oil settled at 2202. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote
Crude oil has support at 2160‐‐‐2115 and resistance at 2260. Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with levels only 3
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BASE METAL
Copper flat on weak US data, lower stockpiles
Review Copper flat in afternoon trades Thursday on weak US home sales data while lower stockpiles in London continued to support industrial metals. Prices of copper were under pressure as US commerce department new home sales data fell 9.2% to 494,000, Markit service PMI fell to 49.8 as compared to 53.2 previous month and US consumer confidence fell to 92.2 as compare to 97.8 previous month, which shows tight situation in US. Moreover, prices of base metal were supported on weakness in local currency which in turn hurt prospects of imports. However, prices of base metal were supported on lower stockpiles of metals on London Metal Exchange (LME), indicating tight supply situation. Copper stockpiles dropped by 3,200 tons to 199,250 tons, aluminium stockpiles slipped by 6,325 to 2.77 million tons, lead inventories dropped by 1,800 to 215,875 tons, zinc stockpiles dropped by 4,600 to 488,450 LME data showed Thursday. Copper Settled in MCX division at 315.00 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote Today, Copper has support at 313 and resistance at 320‐‐‐324. Traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation 4
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AGRI COMMODITY
Soybean snaps 3‐day loss on short‐covering amid demand
Review Soybean snapped a three‐day losing streak Thursday on short‐covering amid indications of revival in demand. Malaysian palm oil futures have reversed losses on short covering and expectations of lower oil inventories in February. Crude palm as well as other edible oils are tracking trend in Malaysian palm oil. Shipments for the vegetable oil fell 14.8% during Feb 1‐25 compared with the corresponding period a month ago, data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showed on Thursday. However, stockpiles of the Malaysian edible oil have been falling since November, after charting a record high of 2.9 million tones. Delay in the ongoing shipping in Brazil due to constant storms is expected to force soybean prices up. In addition, some support at lower levels can be seen following the Brazilian turmoil which shall force importers to order shipments from the U.S. Despite the delays in deliveries, the spot markets have seen a fall in price in the last two trading sessions owing to weak demand. Around 160 ships are waiting to offload soybeans in Brazil, which is double the figure during a year‐ago period. Prices of soybean oil are expected to move up tracking rebound in Malaysian palm oil, analysts said. Palm oil is a substitute for other edible oils. Soy oil prices on the CBoT traded up 0.51% at $31.35/barrel Thursday. India free on board (FOB) soymeal price was at $492 per ton in Feb compared to $487 per ton for the same period year ago. US soymeal prices traded at $264.70/barrel Thursday. Imports of palm oil rose 59% to 2,350,063 million tons during Nov 2015‐Jan 2016, compared with a year earlier period, data released by SEA of India showed. In contrast, palm oil prices may receive some support in the near term as output from Malaysia, the world's second biggest palm producer, is seen declining in the coming months on lower seasonal trend and as the impact of the El Nino dry weather. Soyabean and Soyaref settled at 3689 and 615.50 respectively. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Source: Telequote
Today, Soyabean has support at 3660 and resistance at 3730 while Soyaref has support at 610 and resistance at 619‐‐‐625. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 5
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AGRI ‐ DAILY CHANGE AND TECHNICAL LEVELS Scrip Soyabean Soyaref Rmseed Close % Change
‐0.05
3689 0.01
615.50 S1 3662
614
3934 0.15
3915
Chana 4181 1.31
4150
Jeera 41190 ‐0.87
14097
8762 ‐0.75
8659
Cocudakl Mentha oil 6214 2187 939.20 ‐1.58
0.55
‐0.53
6137
2168
935.1
CPO 480.10 0.69
478.3
Turmeric Dhaniya S2 3640
612
3895
4114
13993
8595
6041
2149
932.7
476.4
PIVOT R1 R2 3683
3705 3726
617
618 621
3941
3961 3987
4169
4205 4224
14223
14327 14453
8747
8811 8899
6266
2185
6362 2204 6491
2221
939
941.9 946.3
480
481.6 483.0
News Source; Investing.com and News Wire IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e‐mail: ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in | Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 6
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