WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
EXPERT MEETING ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE/VARIABILITY AND MEDIUMTO-LONG-RANGE PREDICTIONS
FOR AGRICULTURE
(Brisbane, Australia, 15-18 February 2005)
Background
Climate change and variability, drought and other climate-related extremes have a direct influence on the quantity and quality
of agricultural production and in many cases, adversely affect it, especially in developing countries, where technology
generation, innovation and adoption are too slow to counteract the adverse effects of varying environmental conditions. The
range of adaptation options for managed systems such as agriculture and forestry is generally increasing because of
technological advances, especially seasonal to interannual climate forecasting, thus opening the way for reducing the
vulnerability of these systems to climate change. Ensemble predictions appear to show the most promise, but the spatial
scales need to become smaller in order to promote field applications of these forecasts. Pilot projects demonstrating the
application of such information have great potential.
It is with this background that World Meteorological Organization (WMO) together with Queensland Department of Primary
Industries and Fisheries (QDPI) is organizing the Meeting of the WMO Expert Team on “Climate Change/Variability and
Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture” in Brisbane, Australia from 15 to 18 February 2005. The Expert Team
comprises 10 international experts from the broad disciplines of agriculture and climatology. In order to add further value to
this international meeting the agenda is broadened, allowing the team to share insights gained with a group of Australian and
New Zealand scientists working in the field.
Specific objectives of the Expert Team Meeting

To appraise and report on current capabilities in the analyses of climate change/variability and long-range prediction
studies, specifically as they relate to and affect agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries at the national and regional
levels;

To produce a review on the current status of methodologies for the presentation of seasonal to interannual prediction
products and applications to the agricultural end user;

To review the availability and suitability of software packages for the calculation of appropriate seasonal climate variability
indices for agricultural applications; and

To make recommendations on research and development activities needed to improve the technology for the benefit of
agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries.
Expected outcomes of the Meeting
Programme for the meeting is designed in such a way as to engage all the participants in discussions on each of these
objectives and develop appropriate recommendations for all organizations involved in climate forecast applications.
Proceedings of the Meeting will be published by WMO and QDPI, and will be widely distributed to end users in agriculture,
rangelands, forestry and fisheries so that the applications of seasonal to interannual climate forecasts can be applied for risk
management for climate variability and change. The convenors will also explore publication of the meeting papers in a book.
PROGRAMME
(Venue: Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann St., Brisbane)
11 :00 hrs Successes and failures in matching climate
knowledge to sectors and scales
Holger Meinke, Department of Primary
Industries & Fisheries, Australia
Monday, 14 February 2005
Participants arrive in Brisbane
Tuesday, 15 February 2005
11:30 hrs
Global capabilities to take climate change/
variability and long-range prediction into
account for better agricultural decisions
M.V.K. Sivakumar, WMO
Welcome
Holger Meinke
Leader, CAgM Expert Team
Department of Primary Industries and
Fisheries, Australia
12:00 hrs
Funding climate applications research:
successes, failures and fallacies
Barry White, Land and Water, Australia
12:30 hrs
Lunch
9:10 hrs
Welcome
Ray Motha
President, Commission for
Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM)
14:00 hrs
Application of seasonal climate prediction in
agriculture in China
Shili Wang, Chinese Academy of
Meteorological Sciences, China
9:20 hrs
Welcome
M.V.K. Sivakumar
Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
14:30 hrs
MJO forecasts as tactical decision tools
Lexie Donald, Dept. of Primary Industries
& Fisheries, Australia
15:00 hrs
9:30 hrs
Welcome
Jim Salinger
Chair, Open Programme Area Group on
Climate Change/Variability and Natural
Disasters in Agriculture
Variability and trends of Australian wheat
yields
Graeme Hammer & Andries Potgieter,
Department of Primary Industries &
Fisheries
15:30 hrs
Tea/Coffee Break
9:40 hrs
Official Opening
Hon. Mr Henry Palaszcuk
Minister, Primary Industries & Fisheries
15:50 hrs
Implications of climate change on long lead
forecasting and global agriculture
Ray Motha, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA), USA
16:20 hrs
Climate forecasting – the Southwest Pacific
experience
Jim Salinger, National Institute of Water
and Atmosphere, New Zealand
16:50 hrs
Discussion
17:20 hrs
Summary of key points/conclusions
(rapporteur)
17:30 hrs
Adjournment
Session 1 Opening of the Meeting and Setting
the Scene
9:00 hrs
9:55 hrs
Climate Matters – Australia’s approach for
better climate risk management
Roger Stone, Science Manager
Dept. of Primary Industries & Fisheries
10:30 hrs
Group photograph
10:40 hrs
Tea/Coffee Break
Session 2 Current capabilities in the analyses
of climate change/variability and
long-range
prediction
studies,
specifically as they relate to and
affect
agriculture,
rangelands,
forestry and fisheries at the national
and regional levels
(Chair: Roger Stone
Rapporteur: Mark Howden)
2
Wednesday, 16 February 2005
Session 3 Current status of methodologies for
the presentation of seasonal to
interannual prediction products and
applications to the agricultural end
user
and
availability
and
sustainability of software packages
for the calculation of appropriate
seasonal climate variability indices
for agricultural applications
12:00 hrs
Sustainability at bargain-basement prices.
An NRM story about trade-offs,
compromises and tentative successes.
Mark Howden, CSIRO Sustainable
Ecosystems, Australia
12:30 hrs
Lunch
14:00 hrs
Developing within-country climate
prediction capacity in the South West
Pacific
Ann Farrell, Bureau of Meteorology,
Australia
14:30 hrs
What does capacity building really mean?
Charlie Zammit, Australia
15:00 hrs
Tea/Coffee Break
15:30 hrs
Assessing impacts of climatic variations
on wheat and rice production in
Bangladesh
Taslima Imam, Bangladesh Met.
Department, Bangladesh
16:00 hrs
Discussion
16:30 hrs
Summary of key points/conclusions
(rapporteur)
16:40 hrs
Adjournment
(Chair: J. Eitzinger Rapporteur: R. Nelson)
9:00 hrs
Helping society make better use of GCMs
Scott Power, Bureau of Meteorology,
Australia
9:30 hrs
Climate change and variability research at
Turkish State Meteorological Service
Ismail Demir, Turkish State Meteorogical
Service, Turkey
10:00 hrs
Climate risk technologies in rural industries
– a better approach all around or a
technology in search for applications
Andrew Ash, CSIRO Sustainable
Ecosystems, Australia
10:30 hrs
Tea/Coffee Break
11:00 hrs
The emperor’s new clothes: software,
wetware or nowhere? The thorny road to
adoption: climate-product dissemination for
agriculture in the USA
Jürgen Garbrecht, Grazinglands Research
Laboratory, USDA, USA
11:30 hrs
Thursday, 17 February 2005
Session 4 Research and development
activities needed to improve the
technology for the benefit of
agriculture, rangelands, forestry,
and fisheries
The emperor’s new clothes: software,
wetware or nowhere? The thorny road to
adoption: Agriculture in Australia
Peter Hayman, SARDI, Australia
(Chair: Jürgen Garbrecht
Rapporteur: Jim Salinger)
3
9:00 hrs
Results (and problems) of climate change
impact research in agricultural crop
production in middle Europe
Josef Eitzinger, Central Institute for
Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
9:30 hrs
Predicting farm financial performance for
policy development
Rohan Nelson,MCV Coordinator, Australia
10:00 hrs
Real options – from technology push to
industry pull
Greg Hertzler, UWA, Australia
10:30 hrs
Coffee/Tea Break
11:00 hrs
11:30 hrs
12:00 hrs
From on-farm risk management to policy and
back
Miles Dracup, Dept. of Agriculture, Australia
Application of climate predictions and
simulation models for the benefit of
agriculture in Romania
Adriana Marica, National Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria
Seasonal forecasting of pasture production in
temperate climates
Alan Porteous, NIWA, New Zealand
12:30 hrs
Lunch
14:00 hrs
Discussion
14:30 hrs
Summary of key points/conclusions
(rapporteur)
14:40 hrs
Friday, 18 February 2005
10:30 hrs
Coffee/Tea Break
11:00 hrs
Discussion in break-out groups
(continued)
12:30 hrs
Lunch
14:00 hrs
Consideration of the reports of break-out
groups
proceedings
Coffee/Tea Break
15:30 hrs
Coffee/Tea Break
16:00 hrs
Vote of thanks
R. Motha, President of CAgM
M.V.K. Sivakumar, WMO
M.J. Salinger, Chair, OPAG 1
(Co-chairs:H. Meinke & M.V.K. Sivakumar)
Meeting Closure
H. Meinke, Leader of the ET
Discussion on conclusions and
recommendations in break-out groups
Key topics:
• Analysis of regional gaps
• Promoting seasonal to inter-annual
applications at the farm level
17:00 hrs
Discussion in break-out groups
15:00 hrs Discussion in timetable for publication of
Session 5 Conclusions and Recommendations
15:10 hrs
9:00 hrs
Adjournment
4