Christian Churches of God
No. 218B
Global Warming:
Historical Cycles
(Edition 2.0 20090718-20140917-20151012)
Modern Political obsession with carbon emissions is clouding the real science and history of
Global Warming Cycles and is nothing more than a political scam for the purposes of social
engineering. We have had Global Warming and Ice Age Cycles every thousand years for
millennia.
Christian Churches of God
PO Box 369,
WODEN
ACT 2606,
AUSTRALIA
Email: secretary@ccg.org
(Copyright © 2009, 2014, 2015 Wade Cox)
This paper may be freely copied and distributed provided it is copied in total with no alterations or deletions.
The publisher’s name and address and the copyright notice must be included. No charge may be levied on
recipients of distributed copies. Brief quotations may be embodied in critical articles and reviews without
breaching copyright.
This paper is available from the World Wide Web page:
http://www.logon.org and http://www.ccg.org
Page 2
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
To understand the phenomenon of global
warming, one needs to look at the history of
climate patterns over the ages.
For instance, when the Danes settled
Greenland over one thousand years ago there
was much less ice there. But we need to go
back even further.
Many centuries ago the earth was tilted on a
different axis. It is now acknowledged that
the earth’s axis rotates on a 22,600-odd year
cycle. The magnetic poles have shifted in
many directions on a regular basis, which we
can
demonstrate
historically
and
archeologically.
What else influences our climate?
The difference in tilt of the axis with the
south away from the sun saw the levels of
precipitation increase in Africa. There was
thus a higher incidence of fresh water lakes in
Africa, Australia and elsewhere. This
explains the Piry Reis map of 1513 (compiled
from ancient maps in the library at
Alexandria before it was burnt by Muslims in
the seventh century) showing rivers and lakes
in Africa where now there are only
depressions and desert (cf. Cyrus Gordon,
Before Columbus, Turnstone Press Ltd, 1972,
pp. 71-73).
Fluctuations of sea levels are caused by
o Earthquakes
o Movements of the caps – at present
the North Pole is totally in water and
the South Pole is on land – melted ice
from Poles on land will increase the
sea levels.
o There is enough ice on the Greenland
cap to raise world sea levels by 6
metres and the same amount in the
West Antarctic basin. Melt of the East
Antarctic basin would lift world sea
levels over 60 metres. Superheating
will cause up to another 30 metres.
o If the North Pole was on land it would
drop world sea levels by between 40
and 60 metres. Temperatures are
rising in the West Antarctic Basin
faster than anywhere else on earth.
Temperature increase is increasing
precipitation on the East Basin and it
is rising faster than previously
experienced.
o Cosmic snowballs (see article, Robert
S. Boyd, Cosmic Snowballs, St Paul
Pioneer Express, 29 May 1997).
2. Solar Activity
Regular cycles
There is a regular 11.1-year solar
cycle. We peaked in that cycle in
2012.
Factors of Change:
1. Rotation of the Earth’s Axis
The El Nino/ La Nina Effects via temperature
changes over the Pacific on a regular basis:
Catastrophic events:
- major floods e.g. 1513 massive
floods in Holland
- volcanic activity
- earthquakes
- tsunamis
To name a few.
Warm period cycles that occur
approximately every 1000 years and
which increase earth temperatures by
around 2 to 2.5 degrees for at least
four to six centuries.
The Warm cycles are followed by the
Cold cycles which reduce temperature
by a similar amount depending on the
solar activity.
The last major one is the Little Ice
Age from 1450. The previous one is
termed the Bond Cycle that brought in
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
Page 3
the Dark Ages and dropped the
coastlines by over 7 feet worldwide.
o
The Dark Ages - Anglo-Saxon
England (410 AD - 1066 CE)
Another cycle is called the de Vries
Cycle which occurs approximately
every 210 years.
o
The Middle Ages - 1066 - 1485
o
The Renaissance Period in England
starting with the Tudor Dynasty
The de Vries Cycle
See
article
at
http://www.co2science.org/articles/VII/N23/
EDIT.php
The Bond Cycle
See the work The Physical Evidence of
Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate
Cycle.
This cycle is not 1500 years as now claimed
but is 1000 years. A Warm period and an Ice
Age occur every 1000 years alternating for
approximately 500-year periods. The error
was made by taking ice layers in the caps as
yearly levels instead of seasonal fluctuation.
800 to 1250 and a fluctuation ca. 1450 CE
Medieval Warm Period.
We know for a fact that prior to 1434 the
Chinese took it as normal to sail over the
Arctic into the Atlantic in summer up until
1250 and possibly up until 1434 when their
navy visited Europe via Suez and the NileSuez Canal. They sailed to Italy and visited
Florence under the De Medici. Many of their
inventions and probable maps were used by
the Europeans.
ca. 950 1100 CE warmest part of the
Medieval Warm Period
English periods
o
Neolithic - Stone Age (3000 - 1800
BCE)
o
The Bronze and Iron Age (1800 - 600
BCE)
o
The Romans (600 BC - 410 CE)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Ages
***************
Update September 2014
In 2014 Antarctic sea ice reached the highest
levels ever recorded since records began.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-0914/record-coverage-of-antarctic-seaice/5742668
*************
Update October 2015
Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will
change climate change debate
October 4, 2015
MIRANDA DEVINEPerthNow
A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perthbased electrical engineer Dr David Evans
may change everything about the climate
debate, on the eve of the UN climate change
conference in Paris next month.
A former climate modeller for the
Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office,
with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr
Evans has unpacked the architecture of the
basic climate model which underpins all
climate science.
He has found that, while the underlying
physics of the model is correct, it had been
applied incorrectly.
He has fixed two errors and the new corrected
model finds the climate’s sensitivity to
carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than
was thought.
It turns out the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change has over-estimated future
Page 4
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
global warming by as much as 10 times, he
says.
Some scientists have even forecast a mini ice
age in the 2030s.
“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth
or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is
not driving the climate; it caused less than 20
per cent of the global warming in the last few
decades”.
If Dr Evans is correct, then he has proven the
theory on carbon dioxide wrong and blown a
hole in climate alarmism. He will have
explained why the doomsday predictions of
climate scientists aren’t reflected in the actual
temperatures.
Dr Evans says his discovery “ought to change
the world”.
“But the political obstacles are massive,” he
said.
His discovery explains why none of the
climate models used by the IPCC reflect the
evidence of recorded temperatures. The
models have failed to predict the pause in
global warming which has been going on for
18 years and counting.
“The model architecture was wrong,” he says.
“Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming.
The climate is largely driven by factors
outside our control.”
There is another problem with the original
climate model, which has been around since
1896.
While climate scientists have been predicting
since the 1990s that changes in temperature
would follow changes in carbon dioxide, the
records over the past half million years show
that not to be the case.
“It took me years to figure this out, but finally
there is a potential resolution between the
insistence of the climate scientists that CO2 is
a big problem, and the empirical evidence
that it doesn’t have nearly as much effect as
they say.”
Dr Evans is an expert in Fourier analysis and
digital signal processing, with a PhD, and two
Masters degrees from Stanford University in
electrical engineering, a Bachelor of
Engineering (for which he won the University
medal), Bachelor of Science, and Masters in
Applied Maths from the University of
Sydney.
He has been summarising his results in a
series of blog posts on his wife Jo Nova’s
blog for climate sceptics.
He is about half way through his series, with
blog post 8, “Applying the Stefan-Boltzmann
Law to Earth”, published on Friday.
When it is completed his work will be
published as two scientific papers. Both
papers are undergoing peer review.
So, the new improved climate model shows
CO2 is not the culprit in recent global
warming. But what is?
“It’s a new paradigm,” he says. “It has several
new ideas for people to get used to.”
You heard it here first!
Dr Evans has a theory: solar activity. What he
calls “albedo modulation”, the waxing and
waning of reflected radiation from the Sun, is
the likely cause of global warming.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/opinion/
miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineersdiscovery-will-change-climate-changedebate/newsstory/d1fe0f22a737e8d67e75a5014d0519c6
He predicts global temperatures, which have
plateaued, will begin to cool significantly,
beginning between 2017 and 2021. The
cooling will be about 0.3C in the 2020s.
******************
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
With Ice Growing at Both Poles, Global
Warming Theories Implode
Written by Alex Newman
Monday, 15 September 2014
In the Southern Hemisphere, sea-ice levels
just smashed through the previous record
highs across Antarctica, where there is now
more ice than at any point since records
began. In the Arctic, where global-warming
theorists preferred to keep the public focused
due to some decreases in ice levels over
recent years, scientists said sea-ice melt in
2014 fell below the long-term mean. Global
temperatures, meanwhile, have remained
steady for some 18 years and counting,
contrary to United Nations models predicting
more warming as carbon dioxide levels
increased.
Of course, all of that is great news for
humanity — call off the carbon taxes and
doomsday bunkers! However, as globalwarming theories continue to implode on the
world stage, the latest developments will pose
a major challenge for the UN and its member
governments. Later this month, climate
“dignitaries” will be meeting in New York to
forge an international agreement in the face
of no global warming for nearly two decades,
record ice levels, and growing public
skepticism about the alleged “science”
underpinning “climate change” alarmism.
As The New American reported last month,
virtually every falsifiable prediction made by
climate theorists — both the global-cooling
mongers of a few decades ago and the
warming alarmists more recently — has
proven to be spectacularly wrong. In many
cases, the opposite of what they forecasted
took place. But perhaps nowhere have the
failed global-warming doom and gloom
predictions been more pronounced than in the
Antarctic, where sea-ice levels have
continued smashing through previous
records. For each of the last three years, ice
cover has hit a new record high.
The most recent data show that the Antarctic
is currently surrounded by more sea ice than
Page 5
at any other point since records began. In all,
there are right now about 20 million square
kilometers of frozen sea area surrounding the
Antarctic continent. That is 170,000 square
kilometers more than last year’s previous alltime record, and more than 1.2 million square
kilometers above the 1981-to-2010 mean,
according to researchers.
“This is an area covered by sea ice which
we've never seen from space before,”
meteorologist and sea ice scientist Jan Lieser
with the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems
Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) told
Australia’s ABC. “Thirty-five years ago the
first satellites went up which were reliably
telling us what area, two dimensional area, of
sea ice was covered and we've never seen that
before, that much area. That is roughly
double the size of the Antarctic continent and
about three times the size of Australia.”
Despite having predicted less ice — not more
— as a result of alleged man-made global
warming, some alarmists have comically tried
to blame the record ice on “global warming.”
Indeed, in a bizarre attempt to explain away
the latest findings, Antarctic Climate and
Ecosystems CRC boss Tony Worby tried to
blame “the depletion of ozone” and the
“warming atmosphere” for the phenomenal
growth in sea ice — contradicting previous
forecasts by warming alarmists, who warned
that ice would decrease as temperatures rose
along with CO2 concentrations in the
atmosphere.
The biggest problem with Worby’s claim,
however, is the fact that the undisputed global
temperature record shows there has been no
warming for about 18 years and counting —
contradicting every “climate model” cited by
the UN to justify planetary alarmism, carbon
taxes, energy rationing, massive wealth
transfers, and more. Dozens of excuses have
been concocted for what alarmists refer to as
the “pause” in warming, as many as 50 by
some estimates. The Obama administration’s
preferred explanation, for which there is no
observable evidence, is often ridiculed by
Page 6
critics as the “Theory of the Ocean Ate My
Global Warming.”
However, scientists and experts not funded
by governments to promote the alarmist
narrative say the observable evidence simply
shows the man-made CO2 theories and
“climate models” pushed by the “climate”
industry are incorrect. More than a few
climate experts and scientists have even
warned that a prolonged period of global
cooling is approaching quickly. The
consequences
could
potentially
be
devastating — especially if warming
alarmists succeed in quashing energy and
food production under the guise of stopping
non-existent “warming.”
Also in response to the fast-expanding ice,
some die-hard alarmists and warming
propagandists
styling
themselves
“journalists” have recently been hyping a
relatively tiny part of the Antarctic ice sheet
that may — centuries or even millennia from
now — go into the sea. Numerous
independent scientists and experts quickly
debunked the fear-mongering, however,
pointing out that it was almost certainly due
to natural causes and was nothing to worry
about.
In an ironic incident that sparked laughter
around the world, a team of “climate
scientists” who set out to show how Antarctic
ice was supposedly melting ended up getting
their ship trapped in record-setting ice — in
the summer! Millions of taxpayer dollars and
massive quantities of fossil fuels and CO2
emissions were required to rescue the
stranded and embarrassed warming alarmists
after their misguided adventure.
Another key tactic of the warmists to deflect
attention from the expanding polar ice in the
Southern Hemisphere has been to hype
changes occurring in the Arctic instead.
Unfortunately for the alarmists, however —
critics often ridicule the movement as a “cult”
for desperately clinging to its beliefs despite
the evidence, not to mention the
“Climategate” scandal — that will now be
much harder to do with a straight face.
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
“After the very high melt rates of the 20072012 period, the trend reversed in 2013 and
especially in 2014 when the melt fell below
the long-term average,” explained German
professor and environment expert Fritz
Vahrenholt, adding that the heat content of
the North Atlantic was also plummeting. “In
other words: The 21st century climate
catastrophe is not taking place.”
Decades ago, of course, Newsweek reported
that Arctic ice was growing so quickly due to
man-made “global cooling” that “scientists”
were proposing to melt the polar ice cap
using black soot. Fortunately, cooler heads
prevailed. More recently, “climate” guru Al
Gore had been regularly predicting that the
entire polar ice cap would be gone by now.
Instead, it is now far more extensive than
when he made his now-discredited
predictions.
Of course, UN bureaucrats, many of whom
depend on sustainable alarmism for their
livelihood, still have their heads in the sand
about the implosion of their theory. On a call
with reporters last week, for example, UN
“climate team director” Selwin Hart, who
serves under Secretary-General Ban KiMoon, claimed an upcoming global-warming
summit in New York “will be a major turning
point in the way the world is approaching
climate change.” He may be right, though
probably not in the way he intended. The
conference, which will be skipped by key
world leaders, is meant to put climate
alarmism “back on top of the international
agenda,” Hart added.
In the United States, meanwhile, as the
evidence continues to contradict the alarmist
predictions, polls consistently show that a
solid majority of Americans reject the UN’s
man-made global-warming theories. Like the
UN, however, Obama continues to act as if
the discredited theories were gospel,
promising to save humanity from their carbon
sins by lawlessly bypassing the U.S. Senate
and the Constitution to foist a planetary
“climate” regime on the American people.
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
Lawmakers have vowed to prevent any such
schemes, but it remains unclear how far the
White House is willing to push the issue.
After failing even with a Democrat-controlled
Congress, the EPA is already working to
impose Obama’s anti-CO2 schemes on
America by executive decree.
With the evidence discrediting UN globalwarming theories literally piling up on both
ends of the Earth and everywhere in between,
alarmists face an increasingly Herculean task
in their bid to shackle humanity to a
“climate” regime at next year’s UN summit in
Paris. However, to protect the public — and
especially the poor — from the devastation
such a planetary scheme would entail,
Americans must continue to expose the
baseless alarmism underpinning what
countless scientists now refer to as the
“climate scam.”
Alex Newman is a correspondent for The
New American, covering economics,
education, politics, and more. He can be
reached at anewman@thenewamerican.com.
Follow
him
on
Twitter
@ALEXNEWMAN_JOU.
Page 7
Related articles:
Embarrassing Predictions Haunt the GlobalWarming Industry
Obama Plotting to Bypass Congress on UN
Climate Regime
Media Ridiculed for Hyping “Antarctic
Collapse” Amid Record Ice
Global Warming Alarmists Stuck In
Antarctic Sea Ice
Record Antarctic Sea Ice Chills Climatechange Projections
Desperate Dash of Global Warming
UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate
Humanity
Climate
Alarmists
Push
Chinese
Communism, Population Control
In Historic Blow to Climate Hysteria,
Australia Kills Carbon Tax
Carbon Scam by UN and World Bank Behind
“Genocidal” Land Grabs
Desperate Dash of Global Warming
http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/enviro
nment/item/19121-with-ice-growing-at-bothpoles-global-warming-theoriesimplode%20%E2%80%A6
Page 8
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
Solar Activity
Graph of Δ14C (higher values correspond to lower solar activity) vs. year AD. Adapted from
Feynman, who attributes the relationship to Stuiver and Braziunas (1988).
Rainfall
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25673679-7583,00.html?from=public_rss
Rainfall will decrease due to pollution but not due to greenhouse gas emissions. Water droplet
formation is limited by particles in the atmosphere and not by greenhouse gas emissions or Global
Warming.
If the South Pole tilts away from the sun we may well see increased moisture in the Southern
Hemisphere.
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
History shows that a polar shift has
happened many times before, most recently
much less than 10,000 years ago. Recent
scientific
revelations
confirm
that
Antarctica has been under ice and snow
for
less
than
10,000
years.
Snow/thaw/freeze cycles encapsulated in 3
KM thick ice core samples were once
thought to be annual rings, suggesting that
ice has been there for 175,000 years.
However, evidence from Greenland suggests
otherwise.
The
"Lost
Squadron",
American planes ditched on Greenland
during WW2 in 1942, were found in 1986
under 267 feet of snow and ice. That's over 6
feet or 2 metres per year in the current
warming period. Even at that rate, Greenland
was therefore ice free, except for glaciers
2333 years ago, and seemingly before the
Roman Warm period. The recovery hole for
the lost planes showed hundreds of those
Antarctica-type "annual" freeze-thaw cycles.
We now know that these rings simply
represent freeze/thaw cycles which could
recur many times in the space of a year,
and perhaps several times in a single day!
Page 9
The cap probably formed very fast in the
Dark Ice Age and melted except for glaciers
in the Medieval Warm Period. We know
Greenland was farmed from the tenth to the
fourteenth century. After that they merged
with the Eskimos and are still there today.
Stapleton's hut was under snow and ice
[reportedly 90'] when it was dug out. At one
foot per year, that's only 10,000 years for the
total cap but the West Antarctic basin is far
less, as we will see.
Geologists know that Lake Titicaca in Peru
altered its lakebed by 30 degrees about
[allegedly] 10,000 years ago. Biblical history
records the great flood around 2348 BCE.
It is also asserted that the Great Sphinx
represents an advanced civilization predating
the age of the Pharaohs in Egypt. It shows
greater rainfall wearing effect than the other
stone monuments. More and more evidence
points to a series of polar shifts over the last
few thousand years. There are between 1.3
and 3 plus kilometres of cap ice built up on
Greenland. There is up to a three kilometres
Page 10
on Antarctica, and these built up very
rapidly. Much of the Greenland Cap built up
in less than a thousand years and probably
from post-1450. Estimates of Ice Age even
within the extended false paradigms vary by
as much as over 4000 years due to pressure
and change on the core samples.
Some scientists are asserting that glaciers
and the ice on Greenland and Antarctica are
continuing to build up in spite of "global
warming". Others assert that underwater
volcanic activity at the poles may be melting
the ice shelves. Many assert the earth's
magnetic field is weakening as a precursor to
a polar shift. New evidence indicates solar
flares and the earth’s field are directly and
more closely related than previously thought.
A new huge solar outburst will envelop the
earth by 2012. Science is in error re the Bond
cycle and consequently asserts an Ice Age
instead of a Warm Period ahead.
17,000 scientists signed a petition against the
Kyoto protocol and urged governments to
prepare for inevitable earth changes being
wrought by forces beyond our control (see
www.iceagenow.com). All this evidence
allegedly supports the theory advanced by
Charles Hapgood, supported by Albert
Einstein, and refined by Carl Peterson in
"Earth Changes". However, we know that
the Bond cycle is not 1500 years but it
occurs every thousand years. The scientists
made the wrong assumptions regarding the
freeze-thaw cycles.
We do know that with the melting of the
caps the following will occur:
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
Volcanic activity is increasing and
affecting sea operations and clarity.
Science also understands that the earth’s
crust is weakening at the Rift system
through Ethiopia into the Red Sea Rift
and on to the Jordan Valley fault, which
ends in Lebanon at the Lebanon and Anti
Lebanon Rift.
It is a threefold fault system that is at the
edges of the African and Arabian plates.
The Arabian plate is moving Northnortheast faster that the African plate
causing more earthquakes.
The Bible states that on Christ’s return
the Mount of Olives will split. The valley
formed is 66 km long. The tongue of the
Egyptian sea will be destroyed.
The plate activity is in the following
slide and colour plate attached.
Each plate causes uplift and also volcanic
eruptions which cause heating and also
heavy metal contaminants. Red algal
blooms will increase as these activities
increase. Fish will die and tsunamis will
increase.
Some thousands (allegedly 105,000) of
years ago the Hawaian earth slip caused
the devastation by tsunami of the East
Coast of Australia. A comet in the
Tasman 600-odd years ago wiped out the
East Coast again.
The following Plate activity is due now.
There will be a stalling of the Gulf
Stream and the British Isles, Scandinavia
and Northern Europe will cool in the
short term. Scotland may even freeze as
Nostradamus predicted.
However, the last time the British Isles
was frozen was within the last 4000 to
5000 years as the Piri Reis map indicates.
The San Andreas Fault is overdue for
collapse. It will probably wipe out a deal
of the Mexican coast and the Pacific
coastlines.
The fault through Portland Oregon is
overdue for collapse.
Global Warming: Historical Cycles
The New Zealand fault is overdue for
collapse and may well wipe out the East
Coast of Australia.
An Hawaian land slip has been forming
for the last two decades.
The Lake Baikal Depression in Siberia is
active. (Baikal contains 20% of the
earth’s freshwater.)
African-Arabian Rift systems are
weakening forming a potential new
island system of the Somali plate with
the formation of an inland sea in Ethiopia
at the Afar Depression triangle down into
the East African Rift Valley system. The
Rift system extends as far south as
Mozambique.
Sinai Peninsula is to move into the Red
Sea, with the Dead Sea Transform left
laterally moving and splitting a vast area
of the Jordan West bank at the Mt of
Olives.
Page 11
Vast Asian dislocation will occur.
Last time the mammoths in Siberia were
frozen with temperate grasses in their
mouths when the pole moved from
Canada to the Arctic Ocean. We still dig
up their frozen bodies.
************
Papers for study:
http://www.ccg.org/english/s/p218.html
http://www.ccg.org/english/s/pB5.html
http://www.ccg.org/english/s/B9.html
Additional Websites:
http://www.history.com/marquee.do?content
_type=Marquee_Generic&content_type_id=
53131&display_order=2&marquee_id=5312
7
http://www.google.com.au/search?q=dark+a
ges&hl=en&tbs=tl:1&tbo=1&ei=VFxNStyY
CMrelAf22digBQ&sa=X&oi=timeline_resul
t&ct=title&resnum=11
Polar shifts are happening now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Ages
The Magnetic North Pole is moving into
Siberia from Canada. If this continues
Australia will effectively move north in
latitude terms. If the Pole moves
permanently into Siberia and on land, sea
levels may drop depending on where the
level rests.
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2000/Emman
uelleStJean.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_High
jump
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