Electronic Supplementary Materials Nutrient Excretion The two most commonly applied methods to estimate fish excretion are experimentation (Schaus 1997; Whiles et al. 2009) and bioenergetics models (Schreck and Moyle 1990). We used both methodologies in a Bayesian framework, whereby our empirical data were informed with data generated from a bioenergetic approach. This approach allowed us to underpin extensive empirical data to produce extremely robust models with realistic error. Specifically, we ran Bayesian simple linear regression models on all output data generated by the bioenergetics models (see detailed methods for bioenergetics models below) using uninformative priors. The model output from these regressions generated the prior distributions used to inform the empirical data (McCarthy 2007). In this way, we took advantage of all available data and multiple approaches to generate robust estimates of nutrients supplied by aggregating grouper. Empirical Estimates Excretion rates for grouper, captured using hook and line or traps, were determined following the methodologies of Schaus et al. (1997) as modified by Whiles et al. (2009). Grouper were incubated in bags containing a known volume of prefiltered (0.7 µm pore size Gelman GFF) seawater for ~30 min. The time interval was chosen based on the recommendations of Whiles et al. (2009) and our own experimental time trials assessing excretion rates every 5-15 min for up to 2 h. Incubation bags were placed in a holding tank of water at similar ambient temperature (20-23oC). Excretion rates (g·h-1) were calculated as the difference between dissolved nutrient concentrations (soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP-P) and ammonium (NH4-N)) before and after the incubation. Excretion rates were control corrected with values obtained through multiple (typically 1 n=6) identical control incubation bags without grouper. Water samples were immediately filtered (0.45 m Whatman nylon membrane filters) and placed on ice. Samples were analyzed for NH4 within 10 h using the methodologies of Taylor et al. (2007). Samples collected for SRP analysis were frozen for transport to the Odum School of Ecology (UGA) where SRP was determined using the persulfate digestion method (Murphy and Riley 1962). Each grouper used for excretion experiments was weighed for wet mass (mean = 324.3 ± 67g), measured to standard length (mean = 212 ± 378 mm), dissected to remove stomach contents, and then frozen for transport to the Odum School of Ecology. Samples were lyophilized to a consistent dry weight, blended to homogeneity, and then ground to a powder with a ball mill grinder. Ground samples were analyzed for %C and N content with a CHN Carlo-Erba elemental analyzer (NA1500), and for %P using dry oxidationacid hydrolysis extraction followed by a colorometric analysis (Aplkem RF300; Solorzano and Sharp 1980). Elemental content was calculated on a dry weight basis. Grouper were captured under permits provided by The Bahamas Department of Marine Resources. The University of Georgia’s Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee approved protocols for the capture and handling of fish (AUP # A2009-10003-0). Bioenergetics Models Bioenergetics modeling estimates nutrient excretion rates of an organism using a mass balance approach given a priori knowledge of the natural history (e.g., diet, growth rate), physiology (e.g., stoichiometry of predator and their prey, assimilation efficiency of nutrients, consumption rates, energy density of prey), and environmental conditions (temperature; Schreck and Moyle 1990; Hanson et al. 1997). Stoichiometry of grouper was determined by averaging the percent nutrient content of all grouper samples. Energy densities of prey items, as determined by analysis 2 of stomach contents, were obtained from Cummins and Wuycheck (1971). Assimilation efficiencies, which marginally influence model estimates (Hood et al. 2005), were assumed to be 80% for N and 70% for P based on literature recommendations (Schreck and Moyle 1990; Hanson et al. 1997). The growth rate of an animal is an influential parameter in bioenergetics (Hood et al. 2005). As such, published growth rate values were obtained from Fishbase (Froese and Pauly 2000). Models were parameterized using diet data collected from hundreds of grouper by the authors (Layman and Silliman 2002; Layman et al. 2007; Hammerschlag-Peyer and Layman 2010; Layman and Allgeier 2012; J.E. Allgeier unpublished data). We determined consumption rates for grouper using Fish Bioenergetics 3.0 software (Hanson et al. 1997). Bioenergetics models were run using R software. To account for inherent error associated with parameterizing such models, we propagated uncertainty associated with diet content and consumption rates, two of the most influential parameters (Schreck and Moyle 1990; Hanson et al. 1997; Schindler and Eby 1997), through the models using Monte Carlo simulations. Specifically, a normal distribution of values was created for each parameter with a standard deviation of 5% of the maximum potential value of that parameter. In both cases the parameters represent a proportion, thus: maximum value = 1, and standard deviation = 0.05. For each model run, random draws were taken from within these distributions 5,000 times. Field and Laboratory Methods for Bioenergetics Models We used empirical data to parameterize diet nutrient content data for bioenergetics models. Prey items, identified through analysis of stomach contents of grouper, were caught using hook and line, traps, or netting. Gut passages were cleared, either through live captivity without feeding or via dissection. Samples were frozen and transported to the University of Georgia for nutrient analysis. Samples were dried to a constant weight 3 in a lyophilizer and ground to a fine powder, using a ball mill grinder. When necessary, large samples were first ground in a blender. Crustacean samples were acidified to remove inorganic carbon. Nutrient content (%C, N, and P) were determined from ground samples as described above. Elemental content was calculated on a dry weight basis. See Allgeier et al. (2013) and Burkepile et al. (2013) for further details on bioenergetics models. Bayesian Models for Nutrient Supply Bioenergetics models were used to inform empirical estimates of fish excretion through Bayesian linear regression models. For example, the final model to estimate excretion rates for grouper was generated using the slope and intercept posterior distributions from the bioenergetics model to set the bounds on the Bayesian priors that informed the empirical excretion data. Models were run using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo with three chains for 50,000 iterations with a burn-in period of 1,000. Data for excretion models were not transformed, as assumptions of normality were met. Bayesian analysis was run using the “rjags” package in R (Plummer 2013). Aggregation Loading Models Current Aggregation Estimates of Nassau grouper abundance, length frequency distributions, and the yearly durations for current fish spawning aggregation (FSA) were collected from the Little Cayman FSA (2004 through 2009) as described in Heppell et al. (2012). The Little Cayman FSA, located off of Little Cayman Island, British West Indies, has been monitored since 2003 (Fig. 1; Whaylen et al. 2004; Whaylen et al. 2006; Heppell et al. 2012). N and P loading rates were estimated separately for each year. Because it was not 4 logistically possible to measure the length of each fish on the aggregation each day, a random subset of fish on the FSA that year were measured using the methods presented in Heppell et al. (2012) which was used to create a discrete empirical length frequency distribution. A length (mm) was assigned to each fish on the aggregation (based on daily abundance estimates) by sampling with replacement from the empirical length frequency distribution. Lengths were converted to mass following Sadovy and Eklund (1999). Mass was used to estimate N and P excretions using the excretion models described above. Individual N and P estimates were summed to get a daily estimate of excretion. An estimate of N and P was generated for each day the grouper remained on the FSA. This process was repeated 10,000 times, allowing for variation in fish lengths and the coefficients of the excretion model. For each iteration, the coefficients of the excretion model were randomly drawn from the posterior distributions of the Bayesian models described above. While the aggregation occurs at depths of 24-33 m, when not spawning, aggregating fish typically stay within 6 m of the bottom over an area of approximately 5,000 m2 (Whaylen et al. 2004). Therefore, in order to facilitate comparisons with other published estimates of consumer-derived nutrient loading, we present N and P nutrient load estimates in g m-2 day-1 (Allgeier et al. 2013). It is important to note that grouper do appear to feed, at least opportunistically, while on the aggregation (personal observation) and spawning anorexia has not been reported for this species. As a result some of the nutrients excreted may simply represent recycling of nutrients within the aggregation site with some exportation of nutrients away from the aggregation site, pathways with potentially important ecological implications as well. Additionally, while feeding does influence excretion rates the impact is seen immediately after feeding and dissipates within hours. While some of the groupers used to determine the empirical estimates of excretion rates had undoubtedly fed recently it is unrealistic to assume all had done so. This, along with the combined approach of empirical estimates and bioenergetic models 5 reduces the likelihood of drastic overestimation of excretion rates due to any differences in feeding rates. Historic Aggregation Anecdotal reports of fishermen, recorded by Smith (1972), assert that the Bahamas supported many similarly sized aggregations at the time that Smith made his observations. By the time Smith (1972) observed and described the aggregation had already been heavily fished. Therefore, our estimate of historic nutrient supply is likely an underestimate. To obtain an estimate of the standard deviation in daily fish abundance at the historic aggregation we used a linear equation generated from regressing the standard deviation of the daily abundance of fish on the log10 of the peak grouper abundance for each year of the Little Cayman FSA. The equation: standard deviation = 2541.1*log10(peak number of grouper)-7878.6 was used to approximate the standard deviation of the number of fish on the aggregation for both the conservative (30,000) and upper end (100,000) abundance estimates for the historic aggregation. 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