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CFAME Task Team Meeting Agenda
Sunday, October 15, 2006, 09:00-12:30
Co-Chairmen: Dr. Kerim Aydin (U.S.A.) and Dr. Akihiko Yatsu (Japan)
1. Introductions/Nomination of reporter
a) Self-introduction; change of members?
b) Need a reporter from either USA or Canada
2. Follow-up of the April 2006 CCCC workshop: see Note
a)
Comparisons between life-history strategists (Yatsu):
http://www.pices.int/publications/presentations/CCCC_2006/Theme3/Yatsu.pdf
- Expand number of stocks to see commonalities: see Note
- Develop conceptual models to speculate dynamics of fish stocks in response to
climate change
- Convert conceptual models to numerical models (e.g. NEMURO.FISH) with
collaboration with MODEL: see Note
b)
Carrying capacity concept (Aydin):
http://www.pices.int/publications/presentations/CCCC_2006/Theme2/Aydin.pdf
- Apply this CC conceptual model (P/B vs Biomass) for various stocks with relatively
long time series
3. Follow-up of the October 2006 Workshop: see Note
a)
Comparisons between ecosystems (King)
b)
Approach to CC at ecosystem level
4. Report of ESSAS activities
a)
Report of St Petersburg Workshop (Hunt)
b)
Future activities of ESSAS (Hunt)
5. Discussion of next step of CFAME
a)
Open forum on Future Integrative Science Program (FISP): Oct 19: see Note
b)
TOR: see Note
i
comparisons between regional and/or basin ecosystems,
ii
linkages in time, space, or seasonality between climate and ecosystems, and
iii
responses of regional ecosystems to basin-scale forcing;
c)
POC: see Note
6. Proposal for topic session for the 2007 Annual meeting in Canada
7. Travel requests/priorities for 2007 calendar year
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8. Approval of a new co-chair (replacement of Yatsu)
Dr. Young-Shil Kang
Marine Environment and Fisheries Institute
National Fisheries Research & Development Institute (NFRDI)
707, Eulwang-dong, Jung-gu, Incheon, Republic of Korea 400-420
Phone: (82-32) 745-0550
Fax: (82-32) 745-0549
E-mail: yskang@nfrdi.re.kr
9. Others
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Note to Item 2
PICES/GLOBEC Symposium on Climate variability and ecosystem impacts on the North
Pacific: A basin-scale synthesis
Theme 1: Regime shifts, especially, examination of the ocean and ecosystem responses to known
strong, infrequent changes in the North Pacific, such as those that occurred in 1977, 1989, and
1998
Mechanisms of climate and human impacts on ecosystems in marginal seas and shelf regions
Theme 2: Ecosystem productivity and structural responses to physical forcing, with an emphasis
on shorter than inter-decadal time-scales-interannual (El Niño-La Niña), seasonal and event
scales
Theme 3: Pan-Pacific comparisons, with an emphasis on comparisons of similar species or
processes from multiple coastal ecosystems and of open ocean-coastal linkages and climate
connections
Note to Item 2a
S7: FIS/CCCC Topic Session (Oct. 19, 1 day)
Key recruitment processes and life history strategies: bridging the temporal and spatial gap
between models and data
Stock-recruitment relationships for exploited fishery stocks quite often show large deviations
from theoretical curves. This results from the tremendous variability in survival rates in the early
life stages of marine species. In the synthesis phase of the PICES CCCC Program, comparison of
life-history strategies in relation to climate changes are recommended for pollock, pink salmon,
capelin, sardines, anchovies, saury, euphausiids, squids, and others. Among the potential causes
of succession of different life-history strategists, recruitment variability is one of the most
important factors. To perform scientific management for target species, appropriate modeling of
recruitment processes, including environmental effects, is needed. Under this theme, we will
review the temporal and spatial variability of recruitment processes of key species, their linkages
to climate changes, human impacts and regional ecosystem structure. Moreover, we will explore
new methodologies to plug the gaps between data and the current state of modeling.
Note to Item 2a
S6: CCCC/MODEL Topic Session (Oct. 17, ½ day)
Modeling and historical data analysis of pelagic fish, with special focus on sardine and
anchovy
Co-Convenors: Shin-ichi Ito, Michio J. Kishi (Japan), Bernard A. Megrey and Francisco E.
Werner (U.S.A.)
During the synthesis phase of the CCCC Program, comparisons of life-history strategies in
relation to climate change are recommended for pelagic species such as pollock, pink salmon,
capelin, sardines, anchovies, saury, euphausiids and squid, among others. In this session we will
focus on modeling and analyses of processes affecting growth, survival and recruitment of
sardine and anchovy, and their relevance to management. We are calling for presentations on
models and historical data analysis on the temporal and spatial variability of recruitment
processes of sardine and anchovy, their linkages to changes in climate, human impacts and
regional ecosystem structure. Advances in general modeling approaches that couple pelagic fish
population dynamics with lower trophic ecosystems are also encouraged.
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Note to Item 3a
W7: CCCC/CFAME Workshop (Oct. 13, 1 day)
Climate forcing and marine ecosystems
The CFAME (Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystems) Task Team is developing new theoretical
and mathematical frameworks to extend the traditional single species concept of carrying capacity
into the multi-species and ecosystem domains. Three major ecosystems of the North Pacific were
selected for this approach: Sea of Okhotsk, California Current System and East China/Yellow
Sea. For each ecosystem the Task Team will review the physical processes that define an
ecosystem, build an overview of dominant species across trophic levels, and describe how the
population dynamics of these species have changed over time. The conceptual linkages between
the physical processes and food-web structures will allow a comparison of varying responses of
the different North Pacific marine ecosystems to basin-wide climate forcing events. This
workshop is a continuation of work that was initiated at a CFAME workshop in January 2006
(Tokyo, Japan). It will focus on key species data for the East China/Yellow Sea and Sea of
Okhotsk regions, to facilitate inter-comparisons among the three target ecosystems.
Note to Item 5c
FUTURE: Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of the North
Pacific Ecosystem
Details can be obtained from:
http://www.pices.int/members/study_groups/SGFISP/FISP_theme_proposals.aspx
http://www.pices.int/members/study_groups/SGFISP/FISP_outline.aspx
Note for Item 5b
Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystem Response (CFAME) Task Team of the CCCC
Program
Terms of Reference
Objective: to synthesize regional and basin-wide studies and provide a forum for the integration
of CCCC-related hypotheses and data.
Terms of Reference:
1. The CFAME Task Team is responsible for the promotion, coordination, integration and
synthesis of research activities related to the CCCC Program among member nations. This
goal could be accomplished by convening meetings, periodic scientific symposia or
workshops, or by distributing information designed to foster cooperation and integration
among existing or developing programs;
2. The CFAME Task Team should provide the scientific body for hypothesis testing of model
experiments, by providing a forum for interaction between data-gathering and distribution
programs (MONITOR) and theoretical experimentation and development (MODEL and
NEXT) as related to climate change impacts on marine ecosystems;
3. Particular emphasis is placed on testing ecosystem-level hypotheses, through review and
examination in a collaborative environment, of
(i)
comparisons
between
regional
and/or
basin
ecosystems,
(ii) linkages in time, space, or seasonality between climate and ecosystems, and
(iii) responses of regional ecosystems to basin-scale forcing;
4. The CFAME Task Team should encourage establishment of component activities as needed
to facilitate synthesis of the CCCC Program.
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Note to Item 5c
A Working Group under POC and Affiliated with CFAME
Title: Evaluation of Climate Change Projections
Short Title: ECCP
Duration: May 2006 to October 2008
Terms of Reference:
1. To analyse and evaluate climate change projections for the North Pacific and its marginal
seas based on predictions from the latest global models submitted to the Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their 4th assessment report;
2. To compute an ensemble of the IPCC model projections for the North Pacific and make
available to other PICES groups (e.g., CFAME);
3. To facilitate the development of higher-resolution regional circulation models that are forced
by, and take their boundary conditions from, IPCC global models;
4. To ensure effective two-way communication with CLIVAR;
5. To convene workshops/sessions to evaluate and compare results;
6. To publish a final report summarizing results.
Note to Item 5b
W5: POC Workshop (Oct. 14, 1 day)
Evaluation of climate change projections
Co-Convenors: Michael G. Foreman (Canada) and Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Japan)
The most recent set of global climate model projections have been submitted to, and are being
analyzed by, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the publication of their
Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. PICES Working Group 20 was created to perform an
evaluation of these projections for the North Pacific and its marginal seas, and to compute
products, such as ensemble averages, that would assist PICES groups like the Climate Forcing
and Marine Ecosystem Response Task Team (CFAME), in their analysis of climate effects on
marine ecosystems, and ecosystem feedbacks to climate. In this workshop, presentations and
discussions will focus on ongoing research that addresses the terms of reference of the new
working group, and on strategies for future work that is needed to fill the gaps. Presentations
related to the direct analysis of global climate projections and the calculation of ensemble
averages; to results from higher-resolution regional ocean and coupled atmosphere-ocean models
that are forced by, and take their boundary conditions from the IPCC models; and to the
development of local and regional data sets (e.g., SST, river flow, sea ice cover) based on either
model projections or historical observations, will all be welcome. The development of
work/action plans, liaisons with other PICES groups and outside organizations (e.g., CLIVAR),
and future activities will also be discussed.
Note for Item 9
Subject: A new CFAME cochair candidate
From: Akihiko Yatsu <yatsua@fra.affrc.go.jp>
Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 17:02:44 +0900
To: VAgostini@rsmas.miami.edu, Kerim.Aydin@noaa.gov, chibas@jamstec.go.jp,
CrawfordB@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca, djhuang@sio.zj.edu.cn,
geohunt2@u.washington.edu, jin@ysfri.ac.cn,
salmon@fish.hokudai.ac.jp, kanghk@kordi.re.kr, kangsk@momaf.go.kr,
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KingJac@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca, mcfarlanes@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca,
norcross@ims.uaf.edu, James.E.Overland@noaa.gov, volvenko@tinro.ru,
ywatanab@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Cc: suamkim@pknu.ac.kr, hbatchelder@coas.oregonstate.edu
In-Reply-To: <200604250954.AA05890@Yatsu-hp.fra.affrc.go.jp>
References: <200604250954.AA05890@Yatsu-hp.fra.affrc.go.jp>
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-Mailer: AL-Mail32 Version 1.13
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-2022-jp
Dear CFAME members:
CC Suam and Hal
Upon my request of April 25, on a new CFAME cochair, Dr. Young-Shil Kang was nominated
from Dr. Sukyung Kang on May 16.
Since there are no others nominations by the designated date, Dr. Young-Shil Kang is the only
candidate of next CFAME cochair.
During the CFAME business meeting (Oct. 15), the new cochair will be approved by our member
and then by the CCCC executive meeting.
Sincerely,
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