Ariyanna Maxwell
1/07/2012
Research Topic: Crystal Ball Math: Predicting Population Growth with Models
What characteristics are the same in all
animals?
Ariyanna Maxwell
1/07/2012
Research Questions
What factors affect an animal’s population?
Why is modeling useful?
Based on your research, what is a Malthusian catastrophe?
How does the Verhulst model differ from the Malthus model?
Ariyanna Maxwell
1/07/2012
Hypothesis
I can predict population growth with models.
Ariyanna Maxwell
1/07/2012
Testing Procedure
I will be selecting a growth rate carrying capacity, and a number of years it is going to evaluate. I will also
be selecting three cases. For example case one I will make the initial population much less than the
carrying capacity, case two I will make the initial population equal to the carrying capacity, lastly case
three I will make the initial population much more than the carrying capacity. My third step I will make
TWO line graphs for each case. Lastly step 4 if I want to me can repeat steps 1-3 for a different growth
rate and carrying capacity.
Ariyanna Maxwell
1/07/2012
Background Information
All animals are eukaryotes. Animals can be sorted into two groups’ prokaryotes and eukaryotes.
Eukaryotes have a nucleus while Prokaryotes don’t have a nucleus. Also Eukaryotes have numerous
membrane bound structures and Prokaryotes don’t. Also all animals are heterotrophs and diploids.
Heterotrophs use organic carbon for and they cannot fix carbon. Diploids have two matched
chromosome that are set in the nucleus. Humans can greatly affect an animal’s population. Examples
are hunting, farming, fishing, industrialization, and urbanization. Predators can affect animal’s
population to. As a prey population becomes larger it becomes easier to find prey. If the number of
predators falls then the prey species number might increase. Parasites to can affect them to they cause
diseases and may slow down the rate and growth of an organism’s population. Models can be very
useful they can show what will physically happen instead of someone just telling you what would
happen. You should have a visual understanding of how the population growth will happen. The
Malthusian Catastrophe is the forced return to the subsistence level conditions once population growth
had outpaced agricultural production. The Verhulst model or logistic curve is a common sigmoid curve.
It can model the S-shaped behavior or S-curve of population growth. It was a given name in 1844 or
1845 by Pierre Francois Verhulst.
Ariyanna Maxwell
1/07/2012
Bibliography
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LogisticEquation.html
www.animals.about.com
www.nationalgeographic.com
www.sciencebuddies.org