The Workshop on Monsoon Climate Variability and Change, and
Their Impacts on Water, Food, and Health in Western India
Venue: Nirma University of Science and Technology, Ahmedabad, India
Dates:
5-7 February 2007
Scientific Program Committee:
Vikram M. Mehta (The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, USA)
A.B. Patel (Nirma Institute of Technology, India)
Ashwini K. Bohra (National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India)
Prakash C. Joshi (Indian Space Research Organization, Space Applications Center, India)
Amita V. Mehta (University of Maryland-Baltimore County and NASA-Goddard Space Flight
Center, USA)
Pinaki Panigrahi (University of Maryland School of Medicine, USA)
Rupa Kumar Kolli (World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland)
Govind B. Pant (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India)
Shailesh Nayak (Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, India)
Local Organizing Committee:
H. V. Trivedi (Nirma University of Science and Technology)
S. Sehgal (Nirma University of Science and Technology)
US Coordinator:
Janet Wood (Center for Research on the Changing Earth System)
Co-sponsors:
India
The Nirma University of Science and Technology, Ahmedabad, Gujarat
Department of Science and Technology, Government of India
USA
The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Columbia, Maryland
Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program, the National Science Foundation
Workshop Objectives:
1. To review the present state of knowledge about monsoon climate variability and change;
and natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones, associated with
them;
2. To review the present state of knowledge about impacts of monsoon climate variability
and change on water supply and demand, agriculture, public health, and economy in
western India;
3. To solicit expert views on what aspects of year-to-year and longer term monsoon climate
variability and change would be useful to society in western India if predicted and how
the information provided would be used;
4. To formulate research and education programs on monsoon climate variability and
change; and their impacts on water supply and demand, agriculture, public health, and
economy in western India; and
5. To identify essential technologies for the research and education programs.
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Workshop Program
Dinner at NIRMA CAMPUS: 07:30 – 08:30 PM
Monday, 5 February 2007
9:00 – 10:00 AM
Registration
10:00–11:00 AM
Inaugural Session
Honorable Shri Narendra Modi
The Chief Minister of Gujarat State
Key note address about societal impacts of weather and climate (INVITED)
Kirit Parikh
Member, Planning Commission, Government of India
11:00 – 11:15 PM
HIGH TEA
Session I:
Observations of Monsoon Climate Variability and Change
Chairman: Vikram Mehta; CRCES
11:15 AM
Opportunities for Innovative Research in Atmospheric Sciences in India
(INVITED)
P. Sanjeeva Rao
Department of Science and Technology, Government of India
11:45 PM
New Features of South –West Monsoon circulation: Recent satellite observations
(INVITED)
P. C. Joshi and B. Simon
Indian Space Research Organization - Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad
12:15 PM
Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on Intraseasonal and Synoptic Monsoon
Variability
Ajaya Mohan Ravindran, Suryachandra A Rao, and Toshio Yamagata
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology, Yokohama, Japan
12:45 PM
Analysis of Break and Active Monsoon Conditions over the Indian subcontinent
using a new high resolution rainfall dataset.
M.R.Ramesh Kumar and Syam Shankar
National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa
1:15 PM
Decadal-multidecadal Variability of the Indian Monsoons (INVITED)
Vikram M. Mehta
Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, USA
1:45 – 2:30 PM
Lunch
Session II:
Monsoon Climate Modeling
Chairman: R. K. Kolli; World Meteorological Organization
2:30 PM
Climate Simulation over Indian Region using Satellite derived Surface Data
(INVITED)
P. K. Pal, R. Singh, Rakesh V. , and P. C. Joshi
Indian Space Research Organization - Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad
Possible relationship of monsoon performance with features in Indian Ocean subsurface simulated by an Ocean General Circulation Model (INVITED)
Vijay Agarwal, Rashmi Sharma, and Neeraj Agarwal
Indian Space Research Organization-Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad
Mesoscale Simulations of Heavy Rainfall Evidence of 26th July 2005
Amit Kesarkar, Sudipta Banerjee, J. Venkata Ratnam, and N. Jyothi
3:00 PM
3:30 PM
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Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune
4:00 – 4:15 PM
Tea Break
4:15 PM
Rain Characteristics over Western India from TRMM and UWNMS Cloud
Resolving Model (INVITED)
Amita Mehta, Eric Smith, and Gregory Tripoli
NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland-Baltimore
County, USA
4:45 PM
Study of Two Contrast Indian Summer Monsoons Using ISRO Derived
Vegetation and Soil Moisture
Trilochan Pattanaik, Someshwar Das, U.C. Mohanty , and A.K. Bohra
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad
5:15 PM
Computational Framework for climate and societal impacts research (INVITED)
Akshara Kaginalkar
Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune
5:45 PM
Optical Properties of Aerosols and Climate Changes
T.R.Trivedi and D.B.Vaidya
Physics Department, Gujarat Arts and Science College, Ahmedabad
7:00 – 8:00 PM
Cultural Program in Science City
8:00 – 9:00 PM
Dinner in Science City
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Tuesday, 6 February 2007
Session III:
Monsoon Climate Predictability
Chairman: P.C. Joshi; Space Applications Centre
9:00 AM
Multimodel Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Seasonal Forecasts for the Monsoon
(INVITED)
T. N. Krishnamurti, Arindam Chakraborty, and C. Gnanaseelan
Florida State University, USA
9:30 AM
Problems and Prospects for the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon
Rainfall (INVITED)
D. S. Pai and M. Rajeevan
National Climate Centre, India Meteorological Department, Pune
10:00 AM
Monsoonal Weather-within-Climate over India and its Seasonal Predictability
(INVITED)
Andrew W. Robertson, Vincent Moron, and Arthur M. Greene
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USA
10:30 AM
Weekly Rainfall Probability Analysis By Gamma Distribution And Artificial
Neural Network
M. S. Kulshrestha, Raju K. George, A. M. Shekh
Anand Agricultural University, Anand
11:00 – 11:15 AM
Tea Break
Session IV:
Technologies for Monsoon and Impacts Research
Chairman: Eric Smith; NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center
11:15 AM
Current and Future Space Technologies for Measurement of Precipitation at
Regional and Global Scales (INVITED)
Eric A. Smith, Amita Mehta, Song Yang , Eastwood Im, and Christopher
Ruf
NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
11:45 AM
Rainfall Retrieval from Passive Microwave Measurements over India from
Current and Future Satellites (INVITED)
R.M. Gairola, A.K. Varma, Abhijit Sarkar, Vijay K. Agarwal
Indian Space Research Organization - Space Applications Centre Ahmedabad
12:15 PM
Ocean Observations in the Indian Ocean (INVITED)
Shailesh Nayak and E. Pattabhi Rama Rao
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad
12:45 – 1:30 PM
Lunch
1:30 PM
Role of Indian Ocean in Climate variability:Studies from satellite observations
Abhijit Sarkar, Rashmi Sharma, Sujit Basu, Neeraj Agarwal, Vijay K
Agarwal and Anant Parekh (INVITED)
Indian Space Research Organization-Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad
Session V:
Why are Societal Impacts of Monsoon Climate Variability and
Climate Change Important?
Chairman: R.K. Kolli; World Meteorological Organization
2:00 PM
Climate applications and services: Linking climate information and science to
users (INVITED)
R.K. Kolli
World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
Strategies for Assessing and Monitoring the Effects of Climate Variability on
Water, Food, and Health (INVITED)
Cody Knutson
National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, USA
2:30 PM
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3:00 – 3:15 PM
Tea Break
Session VI:
Impacts on Water and Food Security
Chairman: G.B. Pant; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
3:15 PM
Climate Change: Indian Context (INVITED)
Govind Ballabh Pant
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
Climate Change and its impact on Agricultural Production (INVITED)
M. C. Varshneya
Vice Chancellor, Anand Agricultural University, Anand
Impact of climate change on hydrological extremes: Floods and droughts
(INVITED)
K. D. Sharma and Pratap Singh
National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee
Land-water management at the landscape scale: toward a science basis for
integrating freshwater prospecting and water harvesting in NW India (INVITED)
Ana P. Barros, Prabhakhar Shrestha, Sen Chiao# , Kun Tao
Duke University, USA; # Florida Institute of Technology, USA
Sea-level-rise estimates along the coasts of north Indian Ocean from past tidegauge records (INVITED)
A. S. Unnikrishnan and D. Shankar
National Institute of Oceanography, Goa
3:40 PM
4:05 PM
4:30 PM
4:55 PM
Evening program: The Indian Meteorological Society - Ahmedabad Chapter
Satish Dhawan Lecture
6:00 PM
Organization of Convection and Scale Interactions in the Tropics
T. N. Krishnamurti
Florida State University, USA
Dinner
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Wednesday, 7 February 2007
Session VI:
Impacts on Water and Food Security (continued)
Chairman: G.B. Pant; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
9:00 AM
Impact of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Water Over India
Y.S. Ramakrishna, A.V.M.S. Rao, V.U.M. Rao, and G.G.S.N. Rao
Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad
Impact of climate change on wheat, maize and castor production in Gujarat
H. R. Patel, V. J. Patel, K. K. Dakhore, Vyas Pandey and A. M. Shekh
Anand Agricultural University, Anand
Climate based Crop Planning in Gujarat - An aid to Food Security
Vyas Pandey, A. M. Shekh, M. C. Varshneya
Anand Agricultural University, Anand
Assessing drought risk using a GCM based statistical model for a meso-scale
Anas catchment, India
Anupam K. Singh (1), Erwin Zehe (2), Andras Bardossy (3)
9:30 AM
10:00 AM
10:30 AM
(1) Department of Civil Engineering, Nirma University Ahmedabad,
India; (2) Institute of Geo-ecology, University of Potsdam, Germany; (3)
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Stuttgart, Germany
11:00 – 11:15 AM
Tea Break
Session VII: Impacts on Health Security
Chairman: R.C. Dhiman; National Institute of Malaria Research
11:15 AM
Climate change and Malaria in India (INVITED)
Sumana Bhattacharya
Winrock International, New Delhi
11:45 AM
Changing scenario of falciparum malaria in Rourkela, eastern India - a hospital
based study (INVITED)
Saroj Kanti Mishra, Sanjib Mohanty, and Rajalaxmi Mishra
Ispat General Hospital, Rourkela and Government Women’s College, Rourkela
12:15 PM
Rainfall Anomaly And Malaria Outbreak In Western Rajasthan (INVITED)
Rais Akhtar
University of Kashmir, Srinagar
12:45 PM
Climate impacts on malaria (INVITED)
R. C. Dhiman
National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi
1:15 PM
Experimental prediction of climate-related malaria outbreaks
Vikram Mehta, T.N. Krishnamurti, Arindam Chakraborty, and Amita
Mehta
Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, USA
1:45-2:30 PM Lunch
Session VIII: Discussion, Conclusions, and Recommendations
Chairman: Vikram Mehta; CRCES
2:30 – 4:00 PM
Summaries of major conclusions and recommendations by Session Chairmen
Discussion
The next steps
Final summing up
4:00PM-
Ahmedabad city tour
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