2. The prospects for life in a destabilised climate.
The Looming Environmental Refugee
Crisis
-
BY GROVER FOLEY –
The impact of climate change around the world is set to create
millions upon millions of new refugees, as whole regions become
uninhabitable through food and water shortages, and as towns and
cities fall victim to rising seas, increased flooding and violent
storms. Where will they go? What will we do?
world's population, likewise depends on
Climate change, at a conservative
the monsoon. Besides drought, seaestimate, will increase the number of
levels are predicted to rise greatly and
environmental refugees six-fold over
storm surges increase as a result of
the next fifty years: from 25 million to
global warming (see "The Threat of
150 million.1 How will climate change
Rising Seas.' p76). Few countries will
create refugees?
have the resources to contain the rising
As the planet warms, food and water
waters. Should the rise reach one metre,
grow scarcer. In 1998 the Hadley
even Holland would find it difficult to
Centre for Climate Prediction and
cope. Hundreds of millions of people
Research forecast major decreases in
would be at risk from such flood
crop yields by 2050. These would above
damage -given that a considerable
all affect the
proportion of the world's
tropical countries In China, at present, the government population
of South America, estimates that 30 million people are lives close to coastlines,
Russia
and already being displaced by climate including in major cities,
western
Africa. change. Some authorities set the figure such
as
Shanghai,
higher, at up to 72 million. A one-metre
As for water rise
Bangkok, Miami and not
of
sea-level
would
scarcity,
the flood all of Shanghai, plus 96 per cent of least London. In China,
Hadley
Centre the province around it. The population at
present,
the
forecasts that by of Shanghai is over twelve million; by government
estimates
2050 about 170 2030, it is expected to be 27 million.
that 30 million people
million
people
are
already
being
will suffer severe stress: their countries
displaced by climate change. Some
will be using over 40 per cent of their
authorities set the figure higher, at up to
water resources. Badly affected areas
72 million. A one-metre rise of seawill include the US, North Africa,
level would Hood all of Shanghai, plus
Europe, Turkey, the Gulf states and
% per cent of the province around it.
China. Global warming may also
The population of Shanghai is over
endanger the monsoon, with effects
twelve million: by 2030, it is expected
much greater than those of drought
to be 27 million. Egypt would lose 12alone -particularly in India given that 70
15 per cent of its arable land, creating
percent of Indians rainfall conies from
14 million refugees. As the sea
the monsoon. Indeed, the Asian Pacific
encroached, sail water would move into
region as a whole, which has half the
the foreshortened Nile, threatening the
irrigated lands that produce almost all of
Egypt's food. In some areas, more
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at www.exacteditions.com. Copyright 9 2012.
2. The prospects for life in a destabilised climate.
destructive river Hooding is also
predicted, for instance through a heavier
than usual monsoon. In Bangladesh,
melting glaciers in the Himalayas would
add to such floods.'
Rising sea levels also threaten delta
areas - such as the Mekong in Vietnam,
the Yangtze in China, the Irrawaddy in
Myanmar, the Tigris-Euphrates in Iraq,
the Indus in Pakistan, the Orinoco in
Venezuela and the Amazon in Brazil that hold more than one million people
(two billion by 20501. The Mekong
delta, for instance, is home to ten
million people, on land one metre or
less above high tide. In such deltas lie
mega-cities such as Jakarta, Bangkok,
Bombay, Manila and Buenos Aires that
by 2050 will be home to 200 to 220
million people.
While these threats are bad enough,
each may intensify the others. Due to
synergisms, two problems may have not
twice but many times the expected
impact.' Just as deforestation increases
warming, and warming increases loss of
forests, so loss of forests increases
migration, while these migrants may of
necessity cut down forested areas into
which they have moved. The resulting
poverty,
moreover,
produces
malnutrition, disease, flight from the
land,
growth
of
megacities,
unemployment, brain drain to the richer
countries, and still greater disparity of
wealth.
Despite hundreds of articles and many
books about climate change, few
discuss the issue of environmental
refugees. The 1995 report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (I PCC) for instance, has a 431
page volume on "Economic and Social
Dimensions of Climate Change" Yet the
subject of refugees receives only onethird of a page (along with unrealistically low- estimates of their future
number). Is the refugee problem already
too great and loo divisive, pining the
humanitarians against the 'realists".
Certainly both Europe and the US face
hard decisions. Most of the refugees to
Europe are expected to come from the
sub-Saharan nations - the source of half
of the world's current total of refugees
and slates that are projected to suffer
severe impacts from climate change. By
2010 the population of these countries is
expected to increase by half, from 600
to 900 million. Of the extra 300 million,
about 100 million are predicted to be
destitute and are likely to rely on
international aid. These potential
refugees will far outnumber today's 12
million refugees from that area. Worse
could come: by 2050 the population of
sub-Saharan Africa is likely, on present
admittedly shaky forecasts, to grow not
60% but 116%, to 1.3 billion.' Where
will the extra 691 million live and grow
their food? If 11% (100 million) were
destitute in 2010 how many of the extra
700 million will be so?
If today's 25 million refugees become
150 million by 2050 (a conservative
estimate), will this six-fold increase
mean not 100,000 illegals in Spain but a
million'.' Instead of 30.000 asylum
seekers in London. 180,000? Given the
prospects of far worse desertification in
Africa, plus climate change in Britain,
180000 would be a huge under estimate.
True, a large percentage will lack the
money to make their way into Europe.
They face starvation in their own
countries or in internment camps. But
those who have some money w ill keep
on coming. Consider the estimate we
noted at the outset: a six-fold increase
in environmental refugees by 2050.
That could mean, for the US. not one
million but six million people crossing
from Mexico every year. Already,
African nations like the Congo and the
Sudan ban or intern starving refugees
from neighbouring stales. Would the
governments of Europe be more
hospitable
if
under
similar
environmental pressures, or create a
Fortress Europa, ringed with machine
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2. The prospects for life in a destabilised climate.
guns? Far more sensible, surely, to try
to get to the root of the matter now - the
fossil-fuel-based industrialisation that is
causing climate change and many of our
other environmental problems.
Answer the question:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
What are the cities at risk inundation?
Are there any environmental refugees around the world yet?
Give an example of how different problems affect each other
Does the IPCC report reflect the situation objectively?
Is coming environmental crisis going to encourage immigration?
What zones are likely to suffer severe impacts from climate change?
Printed for archive.ecologistpartial from Ecologist (Vol 29 No 2 - March / April 1999)
at www.exacteditions.com. Copyright 9 2012.