Religion and state
The Jerusalem Post Tuesday, 12 November 2002
EFRAIM INBAR
On November 3, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a new party formed out of a
banned Islamic movement, won 35 percent of the popular vote and 363 of the 550 seats in
the Turkish parliament. Among the 18 parties contesting the elections, the Republican
People's Party (CHP) also mustered the minimum 10 percent nation-wide required to qualify
for sending representatives to parliament with almost 20 percent of the votes.
Turkey has been led by coalition governments for several decades now. As a result of this
election, for the first time in nearly 50 years there will be only two political parties in the
parliament. The expectation now is for a majority government that enjoys a comfortable
margin.
The identity of the new ruling party and its overwhelming strength in parliament have
generated concern in many capitals of the world. Turkey is too important a state to elicit an
indifferent attitude to dramatic changes in Ankara's political arena. While alarmist reactions
are not warranted, a sober and cautious wait-and-see position is recommended.
The results of the Turkish elections are to a large extent a protest - a popular response to a
chronic inability of a fragmented political system to deal effectively with fundamental
challenges, such as strengthening Turkey's economy, fighting corruption and cronyism, and
working toward a more just distribution of wealth. The success of the AKP is more related to
its ability to project an image of a party devoted to clean and efficient politics than to its latent
Islamist credentials.
Actually, Recep Tayip Erdogan, the former popular Islamist mayor of Istanbul and the AKP's
current leader, made great efforts to distance his party from the more radical Islamist
predecessors in Turkish politics and disclaimed any Muslim agenda.
The AKP was marketed as a moderate conservative party that accepted the secular
constitution and the democratic order. During the campaign, the AKP promised to deal
primarily with economic and welfare issues, to maintain Turkey's bid for membership in the
European Union and to support a UN-sanctioned American action in Iraq. Yet, many of the
party loyalists are members of previous, more radical movements and it remains to be seen
whether they will go along with the non-confrontational attitudes espoused by the current
leadership.
Much of the concern in the West is rooted in ignorance about religion. Those schooled in
secular education systems often look down upon religion as a primitive and doomed
phenomenon. Indeed, the fathers of that intellectual tradition, Max Weber and
Karl Marx, each one in his own way, speculated that progress would wean the masses off
primitive beliefs and subsequently the world would become rational despite occasional spouts
of extremism. Secularists failed to see the vitality of religion and its ability to adapt to
modernity. It remains a powerful social and political force even in the developed world. The
prediction of a potential failure of Turkish democracy relies on the cliche that every Muslim is
at heart a fundamentalist.
Turkey has relied for too long on draconian rules concerning freedom of speech and dress
code, as well as the threat of a military coup to keep undemocratic or religious forces at bay.
Therefore, a Turkey that is more tolerant of religion has the potential for becoming the setting
for a synthesis of Islam and democracy. A secularist-ruling Islamic-based party could be the
next step in Turkey's showing other countries that political freedom and Islam can coexist.
Turkish attachment to secularism runs deep, primarily among the urban and middle-class
elites, providing a significant balance to religious non-democratic impulses. Indeed, the
widespread secular opposition to the short rule (1996-97) of Necemettin Erbakan, an Islamist
prime minister, has taught many of his colleagues great caution. Then the Turkish military,
which regards itself as the ultimate guardian of the Kemalist tradition of secularist democracy,
elegantly eased Erbakan out of power. The generals will not hesitate to step in again to
preserve Turkey's status as a predominantly Muslim yet secular and democratic country,
belonging to the Western camp.
Turkey is also economically dependent on European markets, as well as American goodwill in
the IMF. Any improvement of Turkey's economic situation requires a Western outlook.
Erdogan's first visit abroad is to Greece, in contrast to Erbakan's first visit to Iran. In
accordance with the AKP's declared positions, the basic contours of Turkey's foreign relations
will remain intact as the new government develops its own policies. Turkey's Islamists are
nationalists
trying
to
further
the
nation's
interests
rather
than
pan-lslamists.
In this context, the good relations and strategic partnership between Turkey and Israel are
likely to continue. Israeli-Turkish cooperation, over many important regional conflicts and
global issues, including the war on terrorism, is likely to be sustained.
While Israel should keep an eye on developments in Turkey, there is good reason to wish the
new Turkish government success. A strong and democratic Turkey is a vital Israeli interest.