1
Pearl A. Dykstra ab a Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Den Haag b Department of Sociology, Utrecht University
Correspondence to: dykstra@nidi.nl
Paper prepared for the symposium ‘The never-marrieds in later life: Potentials, problems, and paradoxes’
(Organizers: D.A. Chiriboga & L. A. Zettel) at the meeting of the Gerontological Society of America,
Washington DC, November 19-23, 2004.
Abstract
Findings on marriage patterns for Dutch cohorts born at the beginning of the twentieth century are consistent with Jessie Bernard’s notion of the marriage gradient: those who remain unmarried tend to be high-resource females and low-resource males. Whether this gender difference is also observed in younger cohorts is an open question. Using data from wave one of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002-
2004), I analyze who the Dutch men and women born between 1923 and 1953 (n = 3335) are who remained unmarried. Given that the never-married have not necessarily always lived without a partner, the analyses focus on remaining unpartnered rather than on remaining unmarried. Family background, occupational history, and residential history do not predict the likelihood of remaining single. Same-sex preference emerges as a strong predictor of remaining single, as does educational attainment. The better educated men are, the less likely they are to remain single. The reverse pattern is found for women: the better educated they are, the more likely they are to remain single. Bernard’s notion of the marriage gradient also applies to the partnership histories of the Dutch 1923-1953 birth cohorts.
1 This paper is based on data from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study, which is funded by the ‘Major
Investments Fund’ of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), under grant 480-10-
009. Financial and institutional support for the NKPS also comes from The Netherlands Interdisciplinary
Demographic Institute (NIDI), the Faculty of Social Sciences (Utrecht University), the Faculty of Social and Behavioral Sciences (University of Amsterdam) and the Faculty of Social Science (Tilburg
University).

2
Introduction
In the early 1970s Jessie Bernard introduced the concept of the ‘marriage gradient’ to describe the differential selection by gender into marriage. Men and women tend to marry mates with the same social class and cultural background. Within that common background, however, men tend to marry women who are slightly below them, and women tend to marry men who are slightly above them. Those who remain unmarried tend to be low-resource males (given the scarcity of women with qualifications inferior to theirs) and high-resource females (given the scarcity of men with qualifications superior to theirs).
(Bernard, 1972) referred to never-married men as ‘the bottom of the barrel’ and never-married women as
‘the cream of the crop’ (p. 36). Findings on marriage patterns for Dutch cohorts born at the beginning of the twentieth century are consistent with Jessie Bernard’s notion of the marriage gradient: never-married women tend to be well-educated and socially skilled, whereas never-married men tend to have poorer educational qualifications and social resources (Dykstra, 2004a).
Thirty years later, it remains an open question whether this gender difference still holds. There are reasons to believe the marriage pattern might have changed. The rise in individualism (Beck & Beck-
Gernsheim, 1995 [1990]; Giddens, 1991), the notion that people should provide shape and direction to their lives without church, family or community interference, implies a decreasing inclination to conform to the ‘structural imperatives’ (Bernard, 1972, p. 35) of male superiority in marriage. Increasing egalitarianism in the relationships between men and women, as reflected in changes in the law over the past decades (Dykstra, 2004b), also suggests that people are more likely to choose equals as marriage partners.
The purpose of this paper is to find out whether the marriage pattern of recent cohorts of middleaged and older men and women in the Netherlands conforms to Bernard’s marriage gradient. The research question guiding the analyses is: which life history characteristics have increased the likelihood of remaining unmarried?
Marriage trends in the Netherlands
Figure 1 shows the proportions ever-married men and women in Dutch cohorts born in the first half of the twentieth century. As the figure shows, the likelihood of remaining unmarried steadily decreased for the cohorts born between 1900 and 1939. For cohorts born in 1940 and afterwards, the likelihood of remaining unmarried started to increase—primarily as a result of the increasing popularity of unmarried cohabitation. In the oldest cohorts, more women than men remained unmarried. Starting with the 1930-
1934 birth cohort, this pattern reversed: women were less likely than men to remain unmarried. The

3 reversal is attributable to marriages between formerly married men and never-married women, resulting in a relative shortage of marriage partners for men marrying for the first time (Ekamper et al., 2003).
Given the rise in unmarried cohabitation in the Netherlands, I will not only look at the characteristics of men and women who remained unmarried, but also at the characteristics of those who remained unpartnered . Unpartnered means never having married or never having lived in a consensual union.
Figure 1. Percentage ever-married, Dutch 1900-1954 birth cohorts
88
86
84
82
80
96
94
92
90
Men
Women
1900/04 1910/14 1920/24 1930/34 1940/44 1950/54
Birth cohort
Source. Ekamper et al., 2003.
Life history characteristics
To find out who the never-married are, two sets of life history characteristics are considered. I have no reason to assume that men’s and women’s chances of remaining unmarried are differentially affected by these characteristics. The first set are characteristics that might make people less attractive as (marriage) partners. These are: a low level of educational attainment, and non-continuous employment. The second set are characteristics that might make people more open to the single lifestyle . These are: growing up in a big city, growing up with non-religious parents, having divorced parents, having never-married parents, and having never-married siblings. Finally, I consider a characteristic that imposed restrictions on the feasibility of marriage, namely homosexuality . Up until April 2001 marriage was not an option for samesex couples in the Netherlands. With the increasing acceptance over the past decades of a diversity of household and family arrangements (Allan, Hawker, & Crow, 2001) sharing a household with a same-sex partner has become a viable living arrangement.

4
Respondents
The data are from the main sample of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (NKPS, for information see
Dykstra et al., 2004a, 2004b). In the period October 2002 until January 2004 face-to-face interviews using a CAPI questionnaire were conducted with over 8150 men and women with a minimum age of 18 and a maximum age of 79.
At the end of the interview, respondents received a self-completion questionnaire that was picked up by the interviewer at a later date. The self-completion questionnaire mostly pertained to subjective issues (attitudes, well-being). In 90 percent of the cases the self-completion questionnaire was returned and processed.
A random sample of addresses of private residences in the Netherlands was used; the addresses were from all over the Netherlands and not restricted to specific regions or municipalities. Residents of care-institutions, penitentiaries, homes for the elderly, and holiday homes were excluded from the sample frame. The overall response rate of the NKPS study was 45 percent, which is comparable to the response rates generally achieved in Dutch surveys on topics like families and well-being.
The analyses reported in this paper are based on 1469 men and 1866 women who were between the ages of 50 and 79 at the time of the interview (birth cohorts 1923-1953). 50 was selected as the minimum age to ensure a focus on never-married people who were most likely remain unmarried for the rest of their lives. Demographic statistics show that the likelihood of marrying for the first time after that age is quite low.
Measures
Partnership history . In the NKPS-survey questions were asked about the current partnership as well as all previous partnerships. A partnership was defined as having had a partner for at least three months. A partnership might be a married or an unmarried relationship, a relationship with a person of the same or of the opposite sex, and need not be restricted to sharing a household. On the basis of this information, I distinguished people who were never-married by age 50, and those who were never-partnered by age 50.
Never-partnered means never having married or never having lived in a consensual union.
The survey had no direct question on sexual preference . The sex of the current and previous partners was ascertained, however, enabling the identification of respondents who were previously or currently involved in a same-sex relationship. Those without a current partner were asked: ‘If you were to enter into a steady relationship, would you prefer a relationship with a man or a woman?’.

5
Educational history . Information about the educational level of the respondent was delineated via the question: ‘What is the highest level of education that you pursued?’. For the purpose of the present analysis, answers were coded in five categories: (1) up to primary education, (2) lower secondary education, (3) upper secondary education, (4) higher vocational education, and (5) university education.
Occupational history
. The survey had only limited information on respondents’ occupational histories. Information was collected on employment status (never gainfully employed, currently gainfully employed, or previously gainfully employed). Information was also collected on the number and duration of occupational career interruptions, but not their timing. The following dichotomous variables were constructed: (a) never had a paid job, (b) always had a paid job, (c) experienced a short interruption, that is, an exit from the labor force for a period of between 3 and 12 months, and (d) experienced a long interruption, that is, an exit from the labor force for more than a year. Note that information is lacking on whether the interruptions occurred specifically in early adulthood (when respondents were of ‘marrying age’).
Family background . I focused on family characteristics and early-life experiences that might have predisposed respondents to remain single. Under the assumption that children model their parents’ behavior, I identified respondents whose parents (a) never married, or (b) divorced before the respondent reached the age of 21. Under the assumption that single-proneness might be a family characteristic, I identified respondents who had at least one never-married sibling.
2 Religious doctrines tend to emphasize marriage and childbearing. I identified respondents whose parents were non-religious, assuming they would be more prone to singlehood than respondents who had received a religious upbringing. Questions about religiosity were included in the self-completion questionnaire. The non-response for the selfcompletion questionnaire was approximately ten percent. I used a dummy variable to identify respondents with a missing score on parental religiosity. Under the assumption that residents of big cities are more likely to be exposed to non-traditional lifestyles (including life as a single person), I identified respondents who were living in Rotterdam, Utrecht, Den Haag or Amsterdam at the age of 15.
Procedure
First, descriptive analyses were carried out, to gain insight into the characteristics of the never-married and never-partnered. Next, a logistic regression was performed with remaining unpartnered (no/yes) as the dependent variable. For birth cohort and educational attainment I used a set of dichotomous variables
2 The number of respondents with one or more never-married siblings has probably been underestimated because the
NKPS survey does not have marital history information on all siblings. For a maximum of two randomly selected siblings there is information on current partner status. One of the response categories was ‘single, never married’.

6 rather than a continuous variable, to uncover possible non-linear associations. The logistic regressions were carried out separately for men and women. The descriptive results presented in this paper are based on weighted data, whereas unweighted data served as the input for the multivariate analyses.
Results
Descriptive analyses
Among men, 7.5 percent were never married by age 50. Among women, the figure was 7.1 percent. The findings show that never marrying should not be equated with never having shared a household with a partner. Of the never-married, 20.0 percent were in a consensual union at the time of the interview, whereas 20.4 percent had lived with a partner in the past but were single at the time of the interview.
Among men, 5.0 percent were never partnered by age 50, that is, they had never shared a household with a marital or non-marital partner. Among women the figure was 4.6 percent. A small number of neverpartnered respondents had romantic attachments: 12.8 percent reported a so-called Living Apart Together
(LAT) relationship (De Jong Gierveld, 2004; Ghazanfareeon Karlsson & Borrell, 2002), a partner with whom the household was not shared.
Analyses of the age at which people entered a partnership for the first time showed that very few people did so for the first time after the age of 50. Of first marriages, only 0.2 percent were contracted after the age of 50. Of the never-married who entered a consensual union, 0.6% did so after age 50.
-- Table 1 about here --
Table 1 shows the percentage never-married and never-partnered in different age and gender groups. The pattern is consistent with national statistics (previously shown in Figure 1). In the youngest age group (the 50-59 year olds), men were more likely to remain unmarried than women. In the oldest age group (the 70-79 year olds), women were more likely to remain unmarried. The pattern for never partnering is quite similar.
Very few of the never-married and never-partnered had children of their own. Of never-married men 1.7 percent were fathers, of never-married women 1.6 percent were mothers. Of never-partnered men
0.7 percent were fathers, of never-partnered women 0.5 percent were mothers. Clearly, marriage was the preferred arrangement for having children in the age groups under consideration.

7
Explanatory analyses
Logistic regression analyses were carried out to determine which life history characteristics increased the likelihood of remaining unpartnered.
3 The following sets of characteristics were included in the analysis
(see Table 2): educational history, occupational history, family background, and same-sex preference.
Birth cohort served as a control variable. Table 3 shows results.
-- Tables 2 & 3 about here --
As the parameters for birth cohort show, for men, the trends over time regarding the likelihood of remaining unpartnered were opposite to those for women. Men in the youngest cohort were more likely to remain unpartnered than men in the oldest cohort. Among women, the likelihood of remaining unpartnered decreased substantially across cohorts.
Clear gender differences also emerged with regard to educational attainment. Among men, the likelihood of remaining unpartnered decreased as the attained level of education increased. Among women the reverse pattern was observed: the higher the level of educational attainment, the greater the likelihood of remaining unpartnered.
Occupational history was unrelated to the likelihood of remaining unmarried, among both men and women. There was no support for the prediction that those with non-continuous careers would stand a higher chance of remaining single because they would make less attractive partners. As noted earlier, the measurement of discontinuity in the employment career had its faults. It pertained to discontinuity at any point in the career, not specifically in early adulthood.
None of the family background characteristics predicted the likelihood of remaining unpartnered.
To test the notion that never marrying might run in the family, I included measures for having nevermarried parents and siblings. Whether the respondent remained unpartnered, was however not related to having never-married family members. Parental divorce was not a predictor of remaining unpartnered either. Exposure to life in a big city, and a non-religious upbringing served as indicators of a proneness to life as a single person. Such a proneness was not borne out by the data.
Same-sex preference was a strong predictor of remaining unpartnered. The magnitude of the parameter was larger for men than women, but a test of the interaction between gender and same-sex preference produced insignificant results. The large effect size is attributable to the small degree of variation in sexual preference among the ever married. Less than one percent of currently married respondents had lived with a same-sex partner in the past. Similarly, less than one percent of formerly
3 The results for remaining unmarried were highly similar.

8 married respondents had lived with or were currently living with a same-sex partner after the disruption of their marriage.
Conclusion
Western industrialized countries are witnessing an increasing informalization of family ties (Beck &
Beck-Gernsheim, 2004): consensual unions, LAT-relationships, births outside of marriage, and so forth.
The informalization of close relationships is also evident in the study reported in this paper. Middle-aged and older adults who are officially never-married have not necessarily always lived without a partner. For that reason, the analyses focused on remaining unpartnered rather than on remaining unmarried. To find out who the Dutch men and women born between 1923 and 1953 are who remained unpartnered, I selected characteristics from earlier in life that might have affected chances of entering a partnership: a low level of educational attainment, and non-continuous employment, growing up in a big city, growing up with non-religious parents, having divorced parents, having never-married parents, having nevermarried siblings, and having a preference for a same-sex relationship.
Of all the life history characteristics considered, only sexual preference and educational attainment were found to be predictors of remaining unpartnered. Men and women with a same-sex preference were more likely to remain unpartnered than those with a heterosexual preference. Among men, a low level of educational attainment decreased the likelihood of entering a partnership. The reverse pattern was found for women: the better educated they were, the less likely they were to enter a partnership. This findings are consistent with Bernard’s notion of the marriage gradient. Those who remain unpartnered are lowresource males and high-resource females. Contrary to what trends towards increasing individualism and egalitarianism might suggest, differential selection into partnership is evident in the Dutch 1923-1953 birth cohorts.
The findings underscore the importance of considering gender in studies of the never-partnered.
Life outcomes are likely to be quite different, depending on whether we are looking at never-partnered men or at never-partnered women. Never-partnered men are likely to fare more poorly in life than their female counterparts. Ironically, popular stereotypes of the ‘enviable bachelor’ and the ‘pitiable spinster’ are not consistent with the evidence reported in this paper.

9
Table 1. Percentage never-married and never-partnered in different age and gender groups (weighted data)
Never-married by age 50
Never-partnered by age 50
Age 50-59
Men
%
9.8
5.6
Women
%
7.6
3.4
Age 60-69
Men
%
5.8
4.7
Women
%
4.7
3.7
Age 70-79
Men
%
5.1
4.3
Women
%
9.0
8.0

Table 2. Descriptive characteristics of the age 50+ sample (weighted data)
Marital history
Never-married by age 50
Never-partnered by age 50
Preference same-sex partner
Birth cohort
1923-1933
1934-1943
1944-1953
Educational attainment
Up to primary
Lower secondary
Upper secondary
Higher vocational
University
Occupational history
Never gainfully employed
Always gainfully employed
Short interruption
Long interruption
Family background
Never-married parents
Divorced parents
Non-religious parents
Missing data religiosity parents
One or more never-married siblings
Only child
Resident big city at age 15
Missing data place of residence age 15
10.1
14.6
9.8
4.9
19.2
4.6
23.2
26.1
11.8
0.2
76.1
16.2
7.3
0.9
3.8
Men (n= 1469) Women (n=1866)
% yes % yes
7.5
5.0
1.2
7.1
4.6
1.5
21.9
32.9
45.1
12.6
26.2
24.7
30.6
44.6
16.6
42.4
9.9
15.1
9.1
5.0
19.2
3.4
20.1
17.3
3.4
9.5
74.4
7.2
8.9
1.1
4.8
10

Table 3. Likelihood of remaining unpartnered, Dutch men and women born between 1923 and 1953
(logistic regression)
Men (n = 1450) Women (n = 1853)
Birth cohort
1923-1933
1934-1943
1944-1953
Educational attainment
Up to primary
Lower secondary
Upper secondary
Higher vocational
University
Occupational history
Never gainfully employed
Always gainfully employed
Short interruption
Long interruption
Family background
Never-married parents
Divorced parents
Non-religious parents
Missing data religiosity parents
One or more never-married siblings
Exp(B)
--a
1.00
1.27
1.68 ~
1.00
.54 *
.41 **
.35 **
.78
1.00
1.23
1.28
1.61
.94
.54
.93
1.67 ~
Only child
Resident big city at age 15
Missing data place of residence age 15
Preference same-sex partner
1.17
.79
.60
7.49 ***
1.44
.99
.67
3.70 ***
-2 Log likelihood 703.5 779.0
Nagelkerke R-square .07 .11 a The small number of men who had never been gainfully employed were included in the ‘always gainfully employed’ category.
.42
1.00
1.53
.89
.94
.18 ~
.58
.94
1.37
Exp(B)
1.00
.37 ***
.38 ***
1.00
1.46
2.46 *
5.89 ***
4.27 **
11

12
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