The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Climate Observing Systems
DRAFT FRAMEWORK (16.10.02)
Executive Summary
1.
Purpose and Scope of the Report (0.5 pages)
[This report is for the Parties to the SBSTA and the GCOS sponsors, to advise on priorities for
the implementation of GCOS, noting progress and deficiencies in meeting the needs of the COP]
[The report will discuss priority observations critical for climate monitoring; it will not discuss all possible
observations and will not address the full range of process study observations needed to improve understanding ]
2
Socio-economic rationale (2 to 3 pages)
2.1
Goals of the COP and the IPCC
[To enhance economic development and maintain societal stability, involving a need to ensure that:
 planning is based on predictions of climate and climate impacts that are well based and demonstrated to
be consistent with past and current climate;
 planning fully recognises the current potential for natural climate variations and that future predictions are
judged relative to a sound perspective of current climate;
 the climate responses of natural systems, e.g. vegetation, are monitored for use in adaptation and that





2.2
consistency with the record to date is available to ensure that future natural-system impacts are predicted
from a sound base of verification;
methods used to estimate regional and local climate variations for use in regional impacts studies (from
global climate models) have a sound current basis;
mitigation measures are based on sound scientific guidance and are subject to verification of their
effectiveness;
projections for future scenarios are based on a sound current starting point;
products that enable policy makers to utilise the available data records to meet the noted needs are
available;
all parties have access to data and products meeting their needs. ]
Relevance of a global climate observing system
[A GCOS is for monitoring changes in the Earth’s climate system; Describe the global framework and
complementary regional networks for this]
2.3
Prominent/visible issues facing the Convention (use examples to highlight)
-
Temperature rise
-
Rainfall change and other aspects of hydrology (issue of monitoring precipitation)
-
Sea level rise and water storage in ice
-
Land-cover change
-
Extreme events
-
Carbon storage and change
106741788
2/15/2016
Note: changes from the version used at the Boulder meeting are in red
3
-
Observed impacts (presented by region) .. vulnerability ..
-
Adaptation options
-
Surprises
Scientific rationale (2 to 3 pages)
[The scientific rationale derives from the issues identified in the previous section. Implicitly, the objectives
identified herein have approximately equal priority unless otherwise stated. The rationales are expressed as
scientific objectives (for the climate observing system) in order to provide a scientific framework for the design of
the system and the allocation of priority. The design and implementation of the global climate observing system
is dependent upon effective links between a range of stakeholders, including the research and operational
communities.
The scientific objectives for the climate observing system are:
 To monitor the forcing of the climate system, natural and anthropogenic, regional and global
 To characterize climate variability that contributes to uncertainty in climate change estimates, from
extreme events to decadal variations
 To obtain observations with sufficient resolution (Daily/Hourly) to characterize extreme events important to
impact assessment
 To provide the data needed in support of attribution of the causes of climate change
 To provide the data needed to project climate change information down to regional and national scales
and to quantify the errors in these estimates
 To provide the observations needed to support the prediction of future changes of the climate system
- To provide the data needed to initialise model projections of climate change
- To provide data sets capturing the history of forcing
- To provide data needed to validate the statistics of natural variability and the recent forced response
- To provide the process study data needed to test and validate the processes of climate models.
 To provide the data and products needed to evaluate and understand impacts and vulnerability (to
extreme events)]
[Notes: Spell out the linkages between the socio-economic and scientific requirements from the observing systems; recognise
that the climate is always changing; the GCOS goal is for baseline systems – it cannot monitor everything; stress the
importance of historical and palaeo data: This section could be approached through the scientific objectives, through a series of
questions or through a table characterizing why various types of data were needed to support the FCCC]
4
GCOS Strategy (2 to 4 pages)
4.1
Objectives of the GCOS strategy
[To efficiently, effectively address the observational needs of the scientific o bjectives
- noting that the strategy (the GCOS system/components) needs to be capable of implementation ]
4.2
Components of the strategic approach [comprehensive, baseline, reference to be defined]
-
Comprehensive global system [Climate standard assimilation and reanalysis]
-
Baseline observations
[Sufficient for global indicators and cal/val of comprehensive observations – note the need for end-toend systems, metadata, guidelines, performance metrics…]
-
4.3
Reference measurements [Long-term, high quality, comprehensive measurements in key locations ]
Integration
-
Integration across measurement types [changes or differences of instruments for a parameter]
106741788
2/15/2016
Note: changes from the version used at the Boulder meeting are in red
4.4
-
Integration across parameters [related elements may be observed/archived by different agencies ]
-
Reanalysis [Note the need for product analysis centres]
Products
-
Historical and future data sets (opportunity for capacity building; priorities for past data include
surface temperature, hydrological variables and extreme events)
-
Indicators of climate change and trends [specify key indicators (see IPCC cartoons)]
-
Climate forcing fields [differentiate between what is analysed in the models (e.g. O3) vs external forcing fields]
-
Estimates of uncertainty [in physical products, boundary conditions, emissions…]
[Note the need for end-to-end systems, feedback, documentation on the data and products, … ]
4.5
Implementation [to be based on the GCOS implementation plan]
-
GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles (link to baseline observations)
-
Acquisition and maintenance/rehabilitation of historical datasets
-
GCOS pilot projects (with examples: e.g. high-resolution SST near the sea-ice edge)
-
National/international infrastructure
-
The role of research and satellites
-
Building on existing observing systems
5
Adequacy of networks (8 to 12 pages)
5.1
To monitor the forcing of the climate system, natural and anthropogenic, regional and global
- Earth radiation budget, solar constant TOA radiation, including solar irradiance
- Stratospheric ozone
- Greenhouse gases (including reactive gases)
- Aerosols (including volcanoes and dust)
- Land surface changes (including albedo, surface roughness, vegetation cover, land management
for moisture flux, fire disturbance)
5.2
To characterize climate variability that contributes to uncertainty in climate change estimates, from
extreme events to decadal variations
- Surface climate data sets (land) (including land surface T, P, Pressure etc.; palaeoclimate state
data for T, P.)
- Surface climate data sets (ocean) (including SST, SSS, SLP, sea level, sea ice, pCO2, surface
fluxes)
- Glaciers, ice caps, sea ice, snow cover and permafrost
- Hydrological cycle variables (e.g. river discharge and stream flow)
- Lake and river data (freeze-up, break-up); status of ground (frozen/unfrozen)
- Tropospheric structure, modes and extreme events
- Oceans structure, modes and extreme events
- Lower stratosphere and troposphere – temperature and ozone
- Disturbance to land cover (vegetation change, fire, disease and pests)
106741788
2/15/2016
Note: changes from the version used at the Boulder meeting are in red
To obtain observations with sufficient resolution (Daily/Hourly) to characterize extreme events important to
impact assessment
5.3
To provide the data needed in support of attribution of the causes of climate change
[Simply note priorities from previous sections 5.1 and 5.2]
5.4
To provide the data needed to project climate change information down to regional and national
scales and to quantify the errors in these estimates
- Historical high-resolution (long-term, regional) data for surface fields (clean, gridded datasets)
- Comprehensive regional and national marine data sets.
- Reanalysis data
- Extreme event data (tropical and extratropical storms, tornadoes, hail, drought, heat and cold waves,
extreme winds, combined heat and humidity, rainfall, floods, droughts, etc.)
- Marine impacts data (ecosystems, plankton…)
5.5
To provide the observations needed to support the prediction of future changes of the climate system
* Note Priorities relative to 5.1 and 5.2 for A, O, T for;
- Initial conditions: ocean and land for model initialization (comprehensive in space/time)
- Forcing fields and history of forcing (GHGs, aerosols, land surface, solar, volcanic...)
- Data for model evaluation (reanalysis, surface fields, satellite products…)
- Data for downscaling (regional high-frequency data)
- Validation of component processes; validation of forced response (time history of last
century); validation of natural response (historical record)
* PLUS EXTRA ON
- Carbon Cycle
- Water cycle, clouds and water vapour
- ?
5.6
To provide the data and products needed to evaluate and understand impacts and vulnerability (to
extreme events)
- vegetation
- sea level
- extreme events
- ecosystem data
[Tie back to socio-economic issues (if any found not directly related to the science questions)]
6
Adequacy of cross-cutting elements (2 to 3 pages)
6.1
Models, assimilation and reanalysis
- Reanalysis - description (scope, process, requirements for quality analyses…)
- Models: requirements for and uses of climate data
[Widely used for interpretation and analysis of data; Increasingly used for complex analysis and
interpretation (estimating things that cannot be measured – fields or scales or locations); used for
developing physically and dynamically consistent analyses]
- Capability (atmospheric state and trend analysis, ocean state; GODAE, EU DEMETER and ENACT;
spurious trends, quality, bias, redevelopment of Levitus climatology or alternative…)
106741788
2/15/2016
Note: changes from the version used at the Boulder meeting are in red
- Requirements for improvement of reanalysis schemes and results (data archaeology, reprocessing;
Baseline observing systems for cal/val; Reference measurements; Observations from satellite
systems that adhere to the GCOS climate monitoring principles; refinement of data assimilation
systems; long-term personnel and computational resources; support for dissemination of analyses
and observations; common formats, consistency)
6.2
Data archaeology, rehabilitation and historical data analysis
- Extending the climate record (remote and in situ)
- Reducing uncertainty
- Improving data processing techniques and standards
- Utility/value of proxy and reconstruction records
- Capacity building
6.3
Downscaling
- Linking climate data and analyses to regional and national scales (note especially Regional needs
and priorities as outlined in the GCOS regional Action Plans)
- The approach to extreme events (relate to impacts, vulnerability, adaptation; note capture of patterns
and use of probability function as a tool) Take care not to overstate the relationship between climate
and extreme events
- Testing of regional modelling with high-resolution data (Note capacity building through evaluation of
regional models)
6.4
Data management
- Applying quality control (data management, quality and integrity in accordance with GCOS
principles, exploiting synergy with WMO/CBS, WMO/JCOMM)
- Real time and near-real time feedback on quality of data and products to the operators of the
observing networks (monitor conformance to standards, timely intercomparisons..)
- Metadata standards for data collection, processing and products (quality certification)
- Opening up access to climate data for broader use (capacity building enables broader exchange of
and use of climate data with demonstrable benefits to communities)
- Developing more efficient data exchange (use examples from the TAR)
- Policy issues
- Implementation of UNFCCC data policy for climate data
- Monitoring conformance for specific networks
- Challenges with terrestrial (infrastructure, standards, a ‘JCOMM’ needed?, conventions..)
- Challenges with data not covered by UNFCCC
6.5
Earth Observing satellites
- Interagency agreements for climate fields
- Intercomparison and benchmarking for sensor-to-sensor compatibility
- Responsibility for processing, archiving and distribution of climate related products
106741788
2/15/2016
Note: changes from the version used at the Boulder meeting are in red
- Use of pilot projects for implementation
- Adherence to the GCOS monitoring principles for satellites (orbital control, continuity, calibration,
validation, ancillary data, data archaeology)
- ground truthing and compatability between satellite and in situ data
6.6
Transitions from research to operational networks
7
Priority elements for implementation (1 to 2 pages)
[Ideally, this section would construct an image of the primary and secondary contributions to the
global climate observing system. Feasibility-impact may serve to highlight those aspects that should,
in particular, be brought to the attention of the Parties.]
8
Synthesis and recommendations (2 to 3 pages)
-
Outcomes and benefits
-
Integration and principles
-
Data management
-
Capacity building and training
-
Baseline systems
-
Reference networks
-
Domain specific priorities
Proposed Annexes
I) Parameter status report
II) Meeting Summary, GCOS/IPCC experts meeting, Boulder, Aug. 2002
III) TAR, UNFCCC background materials as required (or list of references)
IV) Climate Monitoring Principles (in situ and satellite, combined)
V) Lead authors and contributors to the Second Adequacy Report
VI) Acronyms and Abbreviations
VII) Possible annex for details on cross-cutting issues
106741788
2/15/2016
Note: changes from the version used at the Boulder meeting are in red